Tier List Speculation

[Overswarm]

You can make the case that limited tournament results are inconclusive, but you can't say that they are "bad". By definition, they are showing the best characters in the game at this point in time. Regardless of potential, they are the winning characters.

More importantly, early tournament results have shown to have a stronger basis in determining potential than heresay.

 

[Archangel]

You can make the case that limited tournament results are inconclusive, but you can't say that they are "bad". By definition, they are showing the best characters in the game at this point in time. Regardless of potential, they are the winning characters.

More importantly, early tournament results have shown to have a stronger basis in determining potential than heresay.

yeah, but like...results where I live suggest one thing, Results on the other side of the country suggest another thing, Results on the other side of the planet also suggest something different. How can you say for sure? especially when alot of tournaments are between 10-30 entrances and many of those entrances are repeated characters...So many ways that the results while they say alot...they say nothing at the same time. At least nothing conclusive.

 

[Overswarm]

yeah, but like...results where I live suggest one thing, Results on the other side of the country suggest another thing, Results on the other side of the planet also suggest something different. How can you say for sure? especially when alot of tournaments are between 10-30 entrances and many of those entrances are repeated characters...So many ways that the results while they say alot...they say nothing at the same time. At least nothing conclusive.

Because trends occur outside of regional influences. For example, there are like 7 Bowser players. People can argue about whether or not Sonic is good; Sethlon shows that Sonic can do well, but it may just be Sethlon playing ahead of the metagame. For Bowser, there is no argument: he is at least a formidable character. With so many bowsers doing well and winning tournaments, we can gain conclusive evidence that Bowser is good. This is further solidified based off of another obvious fact: Melee characters are more successful than Brawl characters right now. This isn't necessarily because Brawl chars are worse, but people already KNOW the melee characters. It's hard to go against a lifetime of Fox experience. For Bowser, essentially an unplayed Melee character drastically changed, to do so well suggests that the character can actually hang with some of the top tiers.

Individual instances mean nothing; it's all about trends. It's why you can shake your head at anyone that says "Oh man, this character is BROKEN! Look at player X / tournament result Y". It's entirely possible that the single instance they are giving you is ultimately as relevant as me beating a 5 year old with Roy. Even if I JV 5 stock that kid with Roy multiple times, Roy is still bad.

But in a tournament setting? People want to win. They will play to win, and you will see people adapt to form a metagame. From that you can get reliable trends, such as "Bowser has many successful players in varying regions". Simply because he isn't winning in your specific region means nothing. It wouldn't mean anything if all the bowsers came to your region and lost, either. It's the fact that a trend is occurring in multiple areas.

We can learn lots from these trends that are basically indisputable. Pikachu? He's unpopular and likely low tier. Squirtle? Likely to remain low tier. Fox? One of the top secondaries. Mario? Mario is mid tier at best and will never amount to anything substantial in any normal circumstances. People have TRIED to win with Mario and failed. Mario will either be reinvented by the players or designers or remain a 'bleh' character.

You can say "but what if...", but the data doesn't care. The longer time goes on, the more information we get. The more information we get, the more solid these trends get. When trends don't change, you have a guaranteed truth.

 

[Kink-Link5]

All we're saying is that 2 months is far, far too short to be calling out trends or clamoring for changes. It's one thing to have suggestions for things to testbed, I have more than plenty, but when there hasn't even been half a year of metagame development and people are calling characters out as being "too good" it just hits on a sour note.

 

[Archangel]

If I'm not mistaken 2 months into Project M 2.1 The scene was dominated by Falco, Sonic, Lucario, and Ike. With occasional small wins for other characters. One of those characters being Bowser who's currently started to win. Lucario, Ike, and Sonic are now less stupid then they were in 2.1, Bowser has started placing over them for the most part with Sethlon being the only sonic who continues to win with the same regularity. Lets not forget that Bowser was a 2-5th place finisher in most tournaments for the first year of PM's release. He's not a new character at all and him placing well isn't exactly new either...but from 2.1-2.5 I'd say it's safe to say that Bowser is at least Formidable. Unfortunately that's about the only trend that can be concluded so far between 2.1 and 2.5. and even that has some doubt. Simply because...one of the only intercontinental and international tournaments(even though it was a 16 man event) Bowser got dead last. However...this is just one result but Looking at 2.5 only....it's still way to soon to make certain calls...but if you made the call right (as some people have) you might think bowser is alot worse than he is. I play Bowser as a Secondary and I will say he's quite good. Capable of being beat but also capable of beating just about everyone give or take a character or 2. But...idk...I'll look into these "trends".

 

[Overswarm]

All we're saying is that 2 months is far, far too short to be calling out trends or clamoring for changes. It's one thing to have suggestions for things to testbed, I have more than plenty, but when there hasn't even been half a year of metagame development and people are calling characters out as being "too good" it just hits on a sour note.

What evidence do you have that two months is too short to be observing trends?

You have absolutely no understanding of analytics. This is observation of what is occurring with the knowledge that what is already occurring is evidence of what will occur. This is obviously different for M since there will be character changes, but foregoing that, it will be accurate because it IS accurate. It's literally just saying what is happening. What is currently happening has a higher probability of happening again. We've seen this in practice. It is not definitive to say that everything will stay the same or that these trends will continue, but I can tell you that whatever happens will be a direct result of these trends.

Bowser is doing well. Something will happen because of this. Either more Bowsers will appear and some will do well, or characters that do well against Bowser will naturally start to rise to the top. If it turns out that Bowser is beaten only by Captain Falcon and Peach or whoever, you'd see those characters naturally increase. If it turns out that Bowser is only doing well because of the stage list, we will see characters that do well on similar stages come into play. It is incredibly unlikely that Bowser will just suddenly start doing poorly; if he starts to do poorly, it will be over the course of time and likely start with individual instances of high profile Bowsers being beaten by specific players/characters, and will spread from there.

20 tournaments is more than enough to get the state of the current metagame. If we can accurately assess the current metagame (which you can do with as little as 2-3 tournaments with the same playerbase if the results are consistent, which they have been), we can accurately observe trends that are appearing. If we can observe those trends, we can anticipate counter-trends and potential unique variables that might come into play later.

 

[Archangel]

What evidence do you have that two months is too short to be observing trends?

You have absolutely no understanding of analytics. This is observation of what is occurring with the knowledge that what is already occurring is evidence of what will occur. This is obviously different for M since there will be character changes, but foregoing that, it will be accurate because it IS accurate. It's literally just saying what is happening. What is currently happening has a higher probability of happening again. We've seen this in practice. It is not definitive to say that everything will stay the same or that these trends will continue, but I can tell you that whatever happens will be a direct result of these trends.

Bowser is doing well. Something will happen because of this. Either more Bowsers will appear and some will do well, or characters that do well against Bowser will naturally start to rise to the top. If it turns out that Bowser is beaten only by Captain Falcon and Peach or whoever, you'd see those characters naturally increase. If it turns out that Bowser is only doing well because of the stage list, we will see characters that do well on similar stages come into play. It is incredibly unlikely that Bowser will just suddenly start doing poorly; if he starts to do poorly, it will be over the course of time and likely start with individual instances of high profile Bowsers being beaten by specific players/characters, and will spread from there.

20 tournaments is more than enough to get the state of the current metagame. If we can accurately assess the current metagame (which you can do with as little as 2-3 tournaments with the same playerbase if the results are consistent, which they have been), we can accurately observe trends that are appearing. If we can observe those trends, we can anticipate counter-trends and potential unique variables that might come into play later.

ok so I looked into it and this is what I got out of it. Using top placements in each region. top 5 for smaller events and top 8-10 on bigger events. and I came up with these numbers for the amount of top placings per character in each region. If a character isn't listed it means they haven't had a top placing.

Atlantic North
Wolf = 3
Falco = 4
Luigi = 4
Fox = 4
Marth = 4
Lucas = 3
Mario = 1
Wario = 1
Zelda = 4
Sheik = 4
DK = 4
Bowser = 2
Pit = 1
DDD = 1
Rob = 3
Diddy = 2
Tink = 1
Ike = 2
Ivy = 1
Peach = 1
Squirtle = 1
Puff = 1
Falcon = 1
G&W = 1

Atlantic South
Ivy = 5
Wario = 3
Marth = 2
Sonic = 3
Mario = 2
Puff = 1
Zelda = 1
Sheik = 1
Falco = 3
Squirtle = 1
DK = 1
DDD = 1
Pit = 1
G&W = 2
Fox = 2
Zard = 2
Tink = 1
Link = 1
diddy = 2
Rob = 2
Pit = 1
Bowser = 1
Lucario = 1

Midwest
Bowser = 12
Zard = 4
Ike = 7
Wolf =4
Tink = 1
Link = 4
Ganon = 7
Diddy = 1
Fox = 15
Falco = 6
ROB = 5
Peach = 4
Pit = 3
Sonic = 8
Marth = 10
Falcon = 5
Sheik = 16
Luigi = 1
Mario = 6
Lucas = 3
Ness = 2
ZSS = 3
DK = 5
G&W = 3
Zelda = 4
Ivy = 2
Puff = 1
Snake = 2
Wario = 3
DDD = 2

South West
Luigi = 1
Link = 4
Zelda = 2
Ganon = 3
Mario = 2
Peach = 1
Fox = 1
Ness = 3
Sheik= 2
DDD= 1
DK = 1
Sonic = 11
ROB = 1
Lucario = 11
G&W = 11
ZSS = 1
Zard = 2
Falco = 1
Diddy = 1
Lucas = 1

PacWest
Bowser = 2
Peach = 2
Wolf = 3
Fox = 4
Falco = 3
Ivysuar = 3
Ike = 1
Zelda = 1
Diddy = 2
Falcon = 1
Zard = 1
ZSS = 1

Canada
Fox = 2
Puff = 3
Marth = 2
DK = 2
Bowser = 1
Falco = 4
Falcon = 1
Ivy = 1
Ganon = 1
Ness = 1
Link = 1
ZSS = 1
Wario = 2
Wolf = 2
DDD = 1
Zard = 1

Europe
Snake = 3
Sonic = 2
Lucario = 3
Lucas = 2
ZSS = 2
Marth = 2
Wolf = 2
Tink = 2
Zelda = 2
Pit = 1
Wario = 1
Rob = 1
Diddy = 2
Mario = 1
sheik = 1

So....there are some visible trends...there is also alot of confusion.

 

[CORY]

Umm, lucario doesn't ignore shields because of shield pressure or moves that get spaced safely on shield....

He ignores shields because he can cancel anything he wants into sideb and grab you out of your shield.

not anymore he doesn't.

 

[Overswarm]

ok so I looked into it and this is what I got out of it. Using top placements in each region. top 5 for smaller events and top 8-10 on bigger events. and I came up with these numbers for the amount of top placings per character in each region. If a character isn't listed it means they haven't had a top placing.

So....there are some visible trends...there is also alot of confusion.

Your numbers aren't weighted in any sense; you could have saved yourself the trouble and looked at my "times used" chart.

 

[Archangel]

Your numbers aren't weighted in any sense; you could have saved yourself the trouble and looked at my "times used" chart.

no thanks...I looked in there and it had the feel of a thread about to be closed. In anycase...it has nothing to do with use really...it's just a snapshot of who's top class in each region. You can see some things that are consistant to this point but other things that are just like...random/wtf-ish.

 

[Kink-Link5]

What evidence do you have that two months is too short to be observing trends?

You have absolutely no understanding of analytics. This is observation of what is occurring with the knowledge that what is already occurring is evidence of what will occur. This is obviously different for M since there will be character changes, but foregoing that, it will be accurate because it IS accurate. It's literally just saying what is happening. What is currently happening has a higher probability of happening again. We've seen this in practice. It is not definitive to say that everything will stay the same or that these trends will continue, but I can tell you that whatever happens will be a direct result of these trends.

Bowser is doing well. Something will happen because of this. Either more Bowsers will appear and some will do well, or characters that do well against Bowser will naturally start to rise to the top. If it turns out that Bowser is beaten only by Captain Falcon and Peach or whoever, you'd see those characters naturally increase. If it turns out that Bowser is only doing well because of the stage list, we will see characters that do well on similar stages come into play. It is incredibly unlikely that Bowser will just suddenly start doing poorly; if he starts to do poorly, it will be over the course of time and likely start with individual instances of high profile Bowsers being beaten by specific players/characters, and will spread from there.

20 tournaments is more than enough to get the state of the current metagame. If we can accurately assess the current metagame (which you can do with as little as 2-3 tournaments with the same playerbase if the results are consistent, which they have been), we can accurately observe trends that are appearing. If we can observe those trends, we can anticipate counter-trends and potential unique variables that might come into play later.

I would hardly call an observation on what has happened as an observation of what is happening. We're in a war in Vietnam, I hear.

I'm so confused because a character doing well only needs 2 tournaments to be "observed" as doing well but a "over the course of time" for them to do poorly. The impact should be equal on both ends. Either all trends take a long time to come into fruition, or trends occur in a couple of sitting. You can't claim to be observing trends in an impartial light while claiming predictive capability of the future.

 

[humble]

Kink don't be disingenuous. Trends are just broader patterns of change across multiple data points. You need at least three points before any meaningful observations can be made, and the more data points you have the more accurately you can predict future change.

For example, 1, 3, 5. Already you have a pattern you can accurately predict. However, say it isn't so precise, 1, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 13, 15. There is still a clear upwards trend, with a change of 2, + or - 1. Interpreting tournament results isn't an exact science, there are many variables that cause fluctuations, but a common trend should emerge within that variance, and the more data points you have, the more accurate your analysis can be, and thus the more accurate your predictions can be.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

not anymore he doesn't.

false. It's harder to space, but he can still cancel DA into sideb, and fair into sideb.

 

[CORY]

http://smashboards.com/threads/2-5-frame-data.332415/

from magus himself.

if i'm understanding his table correctly, dash attack will give you +6 frames of advantage on block, using the better hitbox.

fp has 12 frames of startup for the grab to come out.

that's 6 frames that the opponent can get out of the way, with either a dodge or a roll (most likely roll, since the fp blast can still get them).

therefore, it is not guaranteed in 2.5. and i believe it technically wasn't guaranteed in 2.1, but the opponent had to be buffering the roll/dodge almost immediately upon you hitting their shield, making it impractical.

 

[Professor Pro]

I say...give it at least a year...maybe 2. I mean...to this day the biggest event for PM was FC in 2.1. We need at least 10 more FC type events and we need to have international events too. The players from Brazil, Mexico, Europe, and Japan need to play the best players in the US

As of right now the top 5-10 player in the US in Project M is in doubt. minus regional rankings.

Basically bones logic is always bad....but in this case only 2 1/2 months in is especially stupid....

my 2 cents.

*walks in*

This

*walks out*

*walks back in*

Snake is top tier

*walks back out*

 

[metroid1117]

If there were more Snake mains like you in the US, he'd be top tier for sure haha. <3 your Snake.

 

[Archangel]

*walks in*

This

*walks out*

*walks back in*

Snake is top tier

*walks back out*

I chuckled a great deal. Idk if Snake is a top tier or not but I know he's at least decent in PM. His lack of Aerial mobility I feel will start to hurt him down the road though when characters get overall better combo designs. However, I've already seen snakes escape routes for such things and they are pretty solid so who knows.

 

[Kink-Link5]

Having an the equivalent of a giant shine that also acts as a DJC is pretty much the best combo breaker you could ask for barring a move with multiple frames of invincibility that also doesn't leave you helpless.

 

[k9.]

Hey guys i got 2nd with ness at the last tourney, i dropped the ball against nazo in Grand Finals, i usually beat him but he got me that time.

Here are some videos of my ness.

WF vs Yummy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tdq_ILL5AdM&list=PLUlQZqWo6xoSOTA0LmxvnwCw7fDKOJ4me

GF set 1 vs nazo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePaS7Cz-sqU

GF set 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmdai-WhHNE&list=PLUlQZqWo6xoSOTA0LmxvnwCw7fDKOJ4me

My ness will break the barriers

 

[Kink-Link5]

So many Sonic players in this game lol

At least it gives plenty of opportunity to get more use to the matchup

Okay seriously though, is Sonic's fair a spike now or something? I don't think I've seen anyone meteor cancel it.

 

[Translucent]

I could've sworn I saw Gimpy meteor-cancel it once on stream.

 

[Kink-Link5]

Just wanted to make sure. I haven't had any 2.5 experience vs players yet.

 

[Hylian]

Just curious:

What are your guy's general opinion about Link?

 

[Archangel]

Just curious:

What are your guy's general opinion about Link?

My Opinion is still the same as it was for 2.1 Link. He's a solid high level character. I can see him anywhere between 10-16.
I currently have him placed at number 12.

 

[Kink-Link5]

Just curious:

What are your guy's general opinion about Link?

Hit kind of hard by the boomerang nerf but extra bomb pluck helps a little. Overall only marginally worse than in 2.1, and, like spam_arrows said, within the 50th percentile.

 

[PhantasyStar]

Hey guys i got 2nd with ness at the last tourney, i dropped the ball against nazo in Grand Finals, i usually beat him but he got me that time.

Here are some videos of my ness.

WF vs Yummy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tdq_ILL5AdM&list=PLUlQZqWo6xoSOTA0LmxvnwCw7fDKOJ4me

GF set 1 vs nazo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePaS7Cz-sqU

GF set 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmdai-WhHNE&list=PLUlQZqWo6xoSOTA0LmxvnwCw7fDKOJ4me

My ness will break the barriers

+10 points for being a ness player

 

[Overswarm]

Just curious:

What are your guy's general opinion about Link?

Too mario-ish. He has to work too hard to gain too little. Even though his tools seems to give him a working arsenal, others with the same or slightly better ability can do it with less risk and more reward.

 

[Hylian]

Too mario-ish. He has to work too hard to gain too little. Even though his tools seems to give him a working arsenal, others with the same or slightly better ability can do it with less risk and more reward.

I hear this pretty often actually from people I play with.

 

[KayB]

All we're saying is that 2 months is far, far too short to be calling out trends or clamoring for changes. It's one thing to have suggestions for things to testbed, I have more than plenty, but when there hasn't even been half a year of metagame development and people are calling characters out as being "too good" it just hits on a sour note.

You know, I've been hearing this ever since PM 2.1, and I think there is something to take into consideration when we say this.

If we look back at early tier lists for other games, they prove to be somewhat accurate regarding who's on top. The SBB tier list started off as Pikachu, Ness, Kirby, than Fox. The only one who dropped down to a lower tier was Ness. Everyone else mostly stayed where they were in the Top/Higher tiers. For SSBM, Sheik, Fox, Falco, Marth, and Peach stayed Top Tier for the most part for over ten years. In this tier list, there were only three characters around the Top Tier area that drastically changed. Both Puff and Ice Climbers rose drastically, while Mario fell down hard. The history of the SSBB tier lists is probably the only one that can discredit me, as a lot of characters moved up and down from Top/High tier for the past four or so years. However, there are still a few characters that have held on to their general position as well (MK, Diddy, Snake, Falco, and Marth come to mind).

This also goes on for other games as well. In SSF4AE, Yun, Yang, and Fei Long stayed Top tier for the whole duration of its lifespan completely undisputed. I can't exactly talk about the other tiers since the B tier at the time covered so many characters. UMvC3 too didn't really change too drastically either, with the only large change coming from Morrigan thanks to ChrisG.

Do lower tiers change a lot? Absolutely. However, I believe that Top to High tiers stay loyal to their placing, and only a few characters in Top/High drastically change in tiers, especially for a game that's based on another game where a tier list has already been solidified. I think there is some truth in your words, but I think people emphasize and exaggerate this way too much.

 

[Archangel]

How long was it before Melee had it's first list? Nearly a year (It also took nearly a year before 2.1 started to have somewhat agreed upon placings.)

Even then they were only partly right. Sheik, Marth, Falco, Fox are ok although in the wrong order. Then they are missing Falcon, Peach, Puff, and IC's. Puff was like 19th,

By the time they got all the right characters at or near the top it was about 10 years later. This is in a game with less characters than Project M, It's also in a game with less balance than Project M.

So I think the idea of building off Melee's history is just as exaggerated...but we'll see.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

Diddy was actually considered to be pretty terrible in the beginning of Brawl. DDD was considered top tier (he was actually considered on par with MK, if you can believe it), and he fell down quite a bit. It took some time for Brawl's metagame to develop.

 

[Archangel]

Diddy was actually considered to be pretty terrible in the beginning of Brawl. DDD was considered top tier (he was actually considered on par with MK, if you can believe it), and he fell down quite a bit. It took some time for Brawl's metagame to develop.

yeah, Olimar wasn't even a thought as well, Alot of times people think they have it right at the beginning and for some characters they do, for others they are way way off, and what makes it even harder this go around in PM is that the characters are being designed/redesigned as we go along. So it may end up taking longer than Brawl/Melee combined before we get it right. I'm up for it though, I wouldn't mind playing this game for 16 years.

 

[hamyojo]

So much of the cast is still so unexplored.
This thread is always so silly.

I can't wait till we have more mains of every character and can determine what beats what. For now we still know so little about even the most commonly played characters, let alone the potential of characters like Lucas, Snake, or ZSS.

It will be fun when Yoshi comes in and takes his own Y tier spot above S.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

lol, I'm down for god tier yoshi, but what makes you think that'll be the case?

 

[Archangel]

So much of the cast is still so unexplored.
This thread is always so silly.

I can't wait till we have more mains of every character and can determine what beats what. For now we still know so little about even the most commonly played characters, let alone the potential of characters like Lucas, Snake, or ZSS.

It will be fun when Yoshi comes in and takes his own Y tier spot above S.

Be careful how you throw around "we". Especially when it comes to characters like Snake, and Lucas.

 

[BTmoney]

lol, I'm down for god tier yoshi, but what makes you think that'll be the case?

I just want a decent kirby...man

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I just want a decent kirby...man

then go play smash 64

3.0 will be Yoshi's time to shine!

inb4yoshisucksin3.0

 

[Archangel]

I don't think Kirby can be good if he's kept at his Melee speed. He needs to be faster on the ground, In the Air, or both. Otherwise...he will end up Below G&W tier.

 

[BTmoney]

Well Yoshi is pretty solid as is. If he was a bit less jank (mostly his grab) and had at least one recovery mix up other than not jumping and dying then who knows lol.

I don't think Kirby can be good if he's kept at his Melee speed. He needs to be faster on the ground, In the Air, or both. Otherwise...he will end up Below G&W tier.

Well I second giving him either more air or ground speed. But what he really needs is better aerials.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

How is Yoshi good as is? He's not in the game! And he's been supremely mediocre in every game.