The Little Witch of Diamond City - Ashley - The Witch retreats. For now.

[Samcrumpit]

I'm not getting my hopes up either, but why specifically feature Ashley? Why not Wario himself? Why not another character from another game that just came out or will be coming out?

Gold is a pretty marquee title for the 3ds, probable the biggest one of the summer. I'm not sure why Ashley but considering no other Ware characters have themes, then she's the obvious choice.

Does Wario even have a 3ds theme? Anyway, it's still really cool that they call her a key character.

 

[Oracle_Summon]

Gold is a pretty marquee title for the 3ds, probable the biggest one of the summer. I'm not sure why Ashley but considering no other Ware characters have themes, then she's the obvious choice.

All the advertising raises the suspension that Nintendo plans something big with her.

Does Wario even have a 3ds theme? Anyway, it's still really cool that they call her a key character.

He does not from what I can tell.

 

[Euler23]

I think it's a 0% chance of the e3 roster being the final one. At worst, there won't be any reveals until the game comes out, and I think that's also extremely unlikely.

I don't know, but how much money do you wanna throw down?

I'd buy at 4:1 odds maybe? It's less likely than not, for reasons people have already stated, but it cannot be conclusively ruled out quite yet.

 

[Oracle_Summon]

If anybody wants a copy of the Ashley 3DS theme (got two by accident) here is the code:

Spoiler

B13M NR6W 154F 3B73

 

[FreshlyBakedCookies]

I wouldn't have because of perceived bias, even though my score would've been 45%. If I could obstain from Chance and just give my 100% want score I would've. What meta score do you think would've been appropriate to give her?

Prior to E3 I would have given her a score of 60-65% depending on how I felt that day. While there was a good a handful of other participants that gave her a score that good or better that day, the atmosphere made it feel like they were taking a hard gamble for disappointment because those participants had to write a good explanation for their reasoning. On the other hand, The people who gave her a score lower than 30% didn't seem to put much effort into an argument if any to justify being that low as if it's implied giving Ashley a score lower than 30% is considered "playing it safe".

"Umm Ashley… let’s see here hmmm... I’ve never played WarioWare and don't know much about her so I'll write her off at 10%"

I'm willing to bet lot of participants look at the first few entries in the rate their chances (especially for a character they don't know much about) and base their score off of those to make their score feel more like an educated guess. What I'm saying is if the first few entries of the rate their chances that day would have instead been positive, the cattle would have followed. Of course there's always the exception for the independent thinkers.

What was funny about Ashley's ratings that day is that they were all over the place with mixed reviews. If someone educated in statistic were to compile a percentile chart showing the frequency of her rating scores it would be a much wider curve than most other rated characters.

So to answer your question of: "What meta score do you think would've been appropriate to give her?" I base it off of two things; what do I feel is the lowest score an educated person could reasonably go without the influence of other people’s responses and what do I feel is the lowest score an educated person could reasonably give after being exposed what other people are saying.

It would be interesting way to play the game if everyone had to "take a shot in the dark". You don't know where the curve is heading before you answer so you better come up with a good reason without piggybacking off of someone else or throwing out your score with little reason as a way of implying that your score follows the current pattern and therefore your opinion should be exempt from criticism.

I did participate in the Rate their chances back during the Smash 4 days and of course I always felt a certain characters were rated unfairly. Off the top of my head, the best example of a specific character I can think of is Isaac (I feel like K. Rool is a bad example for various reasons even though he was highly rated and didn't make the cut). I mean no disrespect to Isaac or his fans but, I felt like he was being highly overrated due to emotional reasons despite the fact that he did have evidence pointing toward the fact that he was a reasonable character, just not strong enough evidence for what people were saying. The point I’m trying make is that the lack of Isaac or any other unfairly overrated character that didn’t make the cut isn’t necessarily going to make people reconsider their methods of how they rate a character. For that reason, and the fact that we have many new participants this time around again, I knew the cycle wasn’t going to differ much.

Soon after Smash was announced but, before I could see other people’s ratings of Ashley or any other character I formed my own opinions of what score I would give and the parameters of what would be considered a reasonable score. Without the influence of others I’d give Ashley a parameter of being reasonable score from 30% for low end to 85% for high end thinking she was going to place somewhere fairly close to the median in between the two. You may disagree with that with your own parameters but that is my opinion as I am taking a “shot in the dark”. As you could guess when I saw Ashley receiving a 34% I was a little upset her score was a little too close to what I initially considered the low end. What was more disappointing was how her score ranked among the other characters.

The problem with this is that when you see characters you feel are more or less likely receiving scores that are less or more likely than what you would have guessed respectively, it alters your opinion.

“If X character received X score then Y character deserves a Better/Worse score. Therefore, I will give Y Character a Better/Worse score than what I originally intended.”

Because of all of this, I think a character’s placement in the list of characters is a more accurate way of describing their chances of making it into Smash than simply a number.

If you say Ashley has a 50% chance of making it into Smash Ultimate that amounts to the successful chance of predicting a coin flip. What if I told you there is a 50% chance the world will end tomorrow. I mean there’s two possible outcomes that could happen right? Either humanity continues to live on another day or we all die. Well then I suppose I’ve been successfully predicting which way the coin will flip for the sake of keeping us all alive for the past however many days I’ve been alive! But you’ll never know if the world will end tomorrow so why would you think our chances of living to see next day should be anything less than 50%?

Going back to my point of why Ashley should be higher on the list let’s throw out a pool of Non-Echo Newcomers and rank them from most likely to least likely based on their score. Hypothetically speaking let’s say this is the outcome:

K.Rool> Simon Belmont>Elma> Ashley>Isabelle>Chorus Kids>Bandana Dee>Geno>and so on…

Since Ashley is placed in between Elma and Isabelle her score should be in between as well even if the gap between the scores is huge with say Elma sitting at 90% and Isabelle at 10% with the characters placing higher than Elma with a score higher than 90% and the characters placing lower than Isabelle with a score lower than 10% respectively. So giving Ashley a score of 60-65% like I originally planned would have fit.

Let’s say Sakurai has enough time to include 6 more characters. If that’s the case then the top six should be help at a higher priority and everybody lower gets the chopping block.

With that being said, if I went off the community’s opinion and put Ashley at number 13 on the list of Newcomers base on likeliness then there’s no way Ashley could make it in if we’re getting a hypothetical total of 8 newcomers. So to sum it all up, if I say I think Ashley is going to be in the game with only 6 more non-echo newcomers slots left then you better explain to me which 6 newcomers are held at a higher priority than Ashley and why they should be held at a higher priority to convince me why Ashley is not going to be in the game.

 

[Erotic&Heretic]

Here is a interesting timeline regarding Smash Announcement, Dojos and character reveals: https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/93geqz/timeline_of_character_reveals_so_far/

 

[lightdasher]

https://my.nintendo.com/news/f92eeb5de1b4b663

Try here.

(Notice this calls her "one of the key characters")

Spoiler

 

[VillagerX3]

Here is a interesting timeline regarding Smash Announcement, Dojos and character reveals: https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/93geqz/timeline_of_character_reveals_so_far/

That means we should get at least one character reveal soon, which is probably in August. I’m excited!

 

[Spinosaurus]

The gap between Smash 4's E3 and Rosalina's reveal was bigger than this game's E3 and release, good lord.

 

[LimeTH]

Spoiler

Okay, go on the MyNintendo homepage, it's a box with a picture of a lot of characters including Wario. If that doesn't work then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Spinosaurus]

The theme isn't on the EU site, if you're from there.

 

[Mrs.Milky]

Don't worry Baby! I've been saving our special moment for the day of Ashley's reveal!



It's Never too late to Join the Ashley hype train my friend! untill December 7th You better be prepared to catch up!

We're gonna celebrate like roCksStarS once the reveal shows

 

[lightdasher]

The theme isn't on the EU site, if you're from there.

Internal suffering.

 

[meleebrawler]

The gap between Smash 4's E3 and Rosalina's reveal was bigger than this game's E3 and release, good lord.

And it was during the Wii U days, aka drought central! How did we survive?!

 

[FooltheFlames]

I've been busy on trying to come up with a unique moveset for Ashley lately, when I'm done, I'll be posting here it for a review. If it's good enough I'd like to see it make it to the front page if possible... Embarrass I just hope I can get it done in time before August 3rd!

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

As I've learned from the past, we shouldn't look too much into patterns. In fact, him dropping everyone at e3 may have not been the original plan itself, which explains why it feels like a serious drought.

 

[FreshlyBakedCookies]

I think Isabelle's outfit being on Gunner and Ashley on Swordfighter was just a matter of the other options being grossly out-of-character. Could you imagine Ashley or Isabelle just laying a beatdown on someone with their bare hands? Or Isabelle whacking someone with a blunt weapon? Or Ashley using a gun?

The Gunner and Swordfighter movesets are still not very fitting obviously, but they're the least of the three evils for the both of them. I don't think any of the Mii movesets would be particularly representative of the moveset Sakurai would give them.

If that's the case then here's a thought. If being a Swordfighter wasn't fit for Ashley's character or being a Gunner wasn't fit for Isabelle's character then putting those characters in as Mii costumes despite their out of place awkwardness of not quite fitting true to the respective character was something Sakurai would have done in a more "forceful" way in comparison to other characters that more naturally fit the feel of the Mii fighting style. Takamaru has a sword so he naturally fits as a Mii sword fighter and Geno has a cannon for a arm so he naturally fits as the Mii gunner.

Unfortunately, for Sakurai there wasn't a spell caster Mii in which Ashley would have more naturally slotted into but, the square peg has got to go through the round hole. There are plenty of other round peg sword characters that Sakurai could have naturally used to fit through the round hole for the last Sword fighter Mii outfit but, Nooo... Sakurai wanted to force square peg Ashley through the round hole Mii Sword Fighter outfit.

It makes you think of how many more hoops Sakurai had to jump through just to get Ashley and Isabelle in the game.

 

[Noipoi]

If that's the case then here's a thought. If being a Swordfighter wasn't fit for Ashley's character or being a Gunner wasn't fit for Isabelle's character then putting those characters in as Mii costumes despite their out of place awkwardness of not quite fitting true to the respective character was something Sakurai would have done in a more "forceful" way in comparison to other characters that more naturally fit the feel of the Mii fighting style. Takamaru has a sword so he naturally fits as a Mii sword fighter and Geno has a cannon for a arm so he naturally fits as the Mii gunner.

Unfortunately, for Sakurai there wasn't a spell caster Mii in which Ashley would have more naturally slotted into but, the square peg has got to go through the round hole. There are plenty of other round peg sword characters that Sakurai could have naturally used to fit through the round hole for the last Sword fighter Mii outfit but, Nooo... Sakurai wanted to force square peg Ashley through the round hole Mii Sword Fighter.

It makes you think how much more hoops Sakurai had to jump through just to get Ashley and Isabelle in the game.

Sakurai really wanted to throw a bone to Ashley fans, he knows people want to play as her.
Now let's hope he goes all the way this time.

 

[MattX20]

We have to remember this also in regards to the info drought for Smash 4. They had over a year to reveal the newcomers for the game compared to less than half that like with Ultimate. That, and Smash 4 ultimately kept people from feeling lacking new info by having veteran reveals monthly to make sure the wait between each direct didn't feel too long.

 

[FreshlyBakedCookies]

We have to remember this also in regards to the info drought for Smash 4. They had over a year to reveal the newcomers for the game compared to less than half that like with Ultimate. That, and Smash 4 ultimately kept people from feeling lacking new info by having veteran reveals monthly to make sure the wait between each direct didn't feel too long.

Good point! While the number of characters is less the amount of waiting time is less as well balancing the ratio of characters reveal per time passing. Right now we have it rough as we are going through that news drought stretch at the beginning after the website's launch.

 

[Mrs.Milky]

Oofy, 3 more days to see if we're handed a direct or not

 

[Arkaizer]

Haven't used this account in a long time, but all the Ultimate hype gave me enough reason to dust this old thing off.

Put me on the supporter list, I think Ashley's got a fair chance at getting in. Whatever Sakurai ends up doing in terms of her playstyle, I'm sure she'll bring something interesting to the table.

 

[Hat Kid]

Hey Everyone! I've been following this thread since a little before E3... Why I decided to finally make a Smashboards account just now and join, I don't know XD. It'd be great if you can please add me to the Ashley Support list! I don't think I have ever wanted another character in Smash as much as I want Ashley. All the other characters I have ever wanted in smash have a 0-1% chance at being in it... Unlike Ashley who actually has a great chance! Reasons I want Ashley in Smash are nothing you guys haven't heard already (Cool character design, great move set potential, WarioWare is a fun series, cute witch etc.). I definitely want to ride the Ashley Hype Train with you guys! Here's to hoping we see her soon confirmed for Smash! (And why not, throw her in Mario Kart, Mario Tennis, and her own game while we're at it Nintendo!)

Oh and Oracle_Summon, thank you for the 3DS Theme code my friend!

 

[SiddShidds]

We're gonna celebrate like roCksStarS once the reveal shows

We'll party like it's 1999! get it?! Smash came out in 1999!

Haven't used this account in a long time, but all the Ultimate hype gave me enough reason to dust this old thing off.

Put me on the supporter list, I think Ashley's got a fair chance at getting in. Whatever Sakurai ends up doing in terms of her playstyle, I'm sure she'll bring something interesting to the table.

We'll it's time to dust off your account and put it to good use! And I can't think of any better use than to support Ashley! Welcome to the Ashley thread!

EDIT:

Hey Everyone! I've been following this thread since a little before E3... Why I decided to finally make a Smashboards account just now and join, I don't know XD. It'd be great if you can please add me to the Ashley Support list! I don't think I have ever wanted another character in Smash as much as I want Ashley. All the other characters I have ever wanted in smash have a 0-1% chance at being in it... Unlike Ashley who actually has a great chance! Reasons I want Ashley in Smash are nothing you guys haven't heard already (Cool character design, great move set potential, WarioWare is a fun series, cute witch etc.). I definitely want to ride the Ashley Hype Train with you guys! Here's to hoping we see her soon confirmed for Smash! (And why not, throw her in Mario Kart, Mario Tennis, and her own game while we're at it Nintendo!)

Oh and Oracle_Summon, thank you for the 3DS Theme code my friend!

Heh! thought you could catch me off guard posting while I was writing my post did you?! Welcome to the Ashley thread!

 

[Hat Kid]

Heh! thought you could catch me off guard posting while I was writing my post did you?! Welcome to the Ashley thread!

Hehe thanks! You guys are such a nice group of people.

 

[FreshlyBakedCookies]

Haven't used this account in a long time, but all the Ultimate hype gave me enough reason to dust this old thing off.

Put me on the supporter list, I think Ashley's got a fair chance at getting in. Whatever Sakurai ends up doing in terms of her playstyle, I'm sure she'll bring something interesting to the table.

Hey Everyone! I've been following this thread since a little before E3... Why I decided to finally make a Smashboards account just now and join, I don't know XD. It'd be great if you can please add me to the Ashley Support list! I don't think I have ever wanted another character in Smash as much as I want Ashley. All the other characters I have ever wanted in smash have a 0-1% chance at being in it... Unlike Ashley who actually has a great chance! Reasons I want Ashley in Smash are nothing you guys haven't heard already (Cool character design, great move set potential, WarioWare is a fun series, cute witch etc.). I definitely want to ride the Ashley Hype Train with you guys! Here's to hoping we see her soon confirmed for Smash! (And why not, throw her in Mario Kart, Mario Tennis, and her own game while we're at it Nintendo!)

Oh and Oracle_Summon, thank you for the 3DS Theme code my friend!

Well that puts us two steps closer to then next most supported character. Who ever it is... Welcome to the Ashley thread!

 

[ToilerMoiler]

Haven't used this account in a long time, but all the Ultimate hype gave me enough reason to dust this old thing off.

Put me on the supporter list, I think Ashley's got a fair chance at getting in. Whatever Sakurai ends up doing in terms of her playstyle, I'm sure she'll bring something interesting to the table.

Your signature is blessed, welcome to the squad!

 

[Space Detective]

Hey Everyone! I've been following this thread since a little before E3... Why I decided to finally make a Smashboards account just now and join, I don't know XD.

Heh, that puts us in similar boats. Lurking comes so natural to me that it even took me like a week before I posted after signing up.

Haven't used this account in a long time, but all the Ultimate hype gave me enough reason to dust this old thing off.

Put me on the supporter list, I think Ashley's got a fair chance at getting in. Whatever Sakurai ends up doing in terms of her playstyle, I'm sure she'll bring something interesting to the table.

Welcome aboard, you two.

 

[SiddShidds]

Hehe thanks! You guys are such a nice group of people.

Good! Now it's time to get HYPED!!!

 

[Noipoi]

Haven't used this account in a long time, but all the Ultimate hype gave me enough reason to dust this old thing off.

Put me on the supporter list, I think Ashley's got a fair chance at getting in. Whatever Sakurai ends up doing in terms of her playstyle, I'm sure she'll bring something interesting to the table.

Hehe thanks! You guys are such a nice group of people.

It doesn't matter if you're account is 3 years old or 3 minutes old, we're all friends in the Ashley thread!
Welcome aboard!

(Love the Hat Kid avatar, by the way!)

 

[perfectchaos83]

Lots posted in the last 18 hours. >_>

https://my.nintendo.com/news/f92eeb5de1b4b663

Try here.

(Notice this calls her "one of the key characters")

****in' Snagged. Thanks for the link~

 

[Hat Kid]

Heh, that puts us in similar boats. Lurking comes so natural to me that it even took me like a week before I posted after signing up.

That's funny. I'm a really shy person in real life myself so I'm surprised it didn't take me a week before I did my first post too.

Good! Now it's time to get HYPED!!!

I've been HYPED for awhile now! Although like people have said, some new Smash news would be great.

(Love the Hat Kid avatar, by the way!)

Thanks! A Hat in Time is such a great game! I *really* wish it came to the Switch though...

Oh and for anyone who wants it. I have an extra 3DS Ashley Theme code: B13M NRK0 5LP1 39B2

 

[perfectchaos83]

Another reason to be prepared in case it's nothing but tournaments at evo

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkMan23/status/1024209622368837634

Read the last part

I still wouldn't expect anything for Smash. This year's EVO is likely to be stacked just from Capcom, Namco and ASW. They all have a **** ton that can be announced.

 

[Oracle_Summon]

Oh and for anyone who wants it. I have an extra 3DS Ashley Theme code: B13M NRK0 5LP1 39B2

Speaking of extra 3ds Ashley Theme Codes, I have 10 extras that I will give out.

Just P.M. me for them. The codes will be given out by order of who P.M. me first.

Edit: One per person.

 

[SiddShidds]

I still wouldn't expect anything for Smash. This year's EVO is likely to be stacked just from Capcom, Namco and ASW. They all have a **** ton that can be announced.

Yeah! those companies definitely don't want an Ashley reveal because Ashley would take over all the media coverage!

 

[Cabbagehead]

Speaking of extra 3ds Ashley Theme Codes, I have 10 extras that I will give out.

Just P.M. me for them. The codes will be given out by order of who P.M. me first.

Edit: One per person.

You know what? I still have three extra codes I could redeem, too. If Oracle runs out, you're more than welcome to ask me. Let's all be download code buddies.

 

[Arkaizer]

On the topic of possible movesets, I feel like Ashley's magic lightning blast from her minigame in Game and Wario would be a good inclusion, maybe as a long-ranged f-air or something. Overall I'd imagine she would have a lot of moves like this that keep opponents just out of range.

 

[ToilerMoiler]

You know what? I still have three extra codes I could redeem, too. If Oracle runs out, you're more than welcome to ask me. Let's all be download code buddies.

Guess I'll join in too. I have 3 extra codes for Ashley as well as the Squid Sisters themes if anyone wants one

 

[Oracle_Summon]

On the topic of possible movesets, I feel like Ashley's magic lightning blast from her minigame in Game and Wario would be a good inclusion, maybe as a long-ranged f-air or something. Overall I'd imagine she would have a lot of moves like this that keep opponents just out of range.

Maybe the lightning strikes from Game and Wario would be the weaker version of her fully charged Lightning strikes (the one from Wario Ware Smooth Moves).

 

[SiddShidds]

On the topic of possible movesets, I feel like Ashley's magic lightning blast from her minigame in Game and Wario would be a good inclusion, maybe as a long-ranged f-air or something. Overall I'd imagine she would have a lot of moves like this that keep opponents just out of range.

Well it just wouldn't be Ashley if she couldn't use magic. Ashley brings the magic to Smash!