The Little Witch of Diamond City - Ashley - The Witch retreats. For now.

[StormC]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if they just dropped Shulk in that Direct because the leak already happened.

 

[Arkaizer]

Yeah, it's really just one of those "who knows" type of deals. Maybe they were planning to reveal Shulk that day all along, or maybe the leaks just sped up the process. Leaks just ruin it for everyone.

Speaking of which, I really hope we get SOME kind of reveal soon, just so those fake leaks get debunked for good. They're making the information drought even worse.

 

[AngrySun88]

I'm hoping for an August Direct to at least give us some information on new characters. I'm honestly surprised they've gone this long without talking about Smash since E3.

At the very least revealing one or two characters should put some of the leaks to rest.

 

[EarlTamm]

This scared the heck about me when I just saw a bit of this title. I was like "My god, it finally happened."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmyE57hECgY

 

[MattX20]

Given how it'll be exactly less than four months starting Wednesday of next week, they have to start revealing newcomers to keep the hype for the game sustained otherwise potentially lose customer investment. Plus, they can't rely on specific gaming events or directs to get it done. It's not like with Smash 4 where they had more than a year to do so, revealed veterans monthly, and Directs were still bimonthly. Now, they have less than half that left for time, can't do veterans anymore since they were all revealed, and the next general direct likely won't be until September given how they happen every 3-4 months these days.

 

[ChronoBound]

Sounds familiar...

Ashley is among the more popular choices over among Japanese fans, but its pretty similar overall compared to Westerners (their most popular seem to be Spring Man, Rex & Pyrra, Bandanna Dee, and K. Rool), Ashley I think rounds out the Top 5. The first two might have been introduced too late to make the base roster (Sakurai submitted his first project plan for Ultimate in December 2015), so they might not even be competing with K. Rool, Bandanna Dee, and Ashley for the few non-echo newcomer slots that Ultimate probably has.

Also, with Wednesday drawing to a close, I do not think we will be getting a Nintendo Direct this week. One hypothesis I possessed was that due to so few months left until Ultimate's release and due to Sakurai likely only have only a few (4-6) non-echo newcomers left, that we would get our reveals in three Nintendo Directs before Ultimate's release:
1. A Nintendo 3DS focused Direct.
2. A Q4 focused Direct.
3. A Smash Ultimate focused Direct.

I thought that one of the purposes of a 3DS focused Direct would be to help advertise and promote WarioWare Gold and Etrian Odyssey X. Both of these game's release tomorrow in Japan (August 2nd). Now, there are no more games with set release dates for the 3DS in Japan.

It seems as though the 3DS Nintendo Direct is not going to happen. Unless there is a multitude of unannounced 3DS software Nintendo is making, there simply is not enough material for a Direct. Nintendo only has two 3DS titles left that we know about (Luigi's Mansion 1 3DS port and the Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story remake). I would think for a Direct to be viable they would need three more titles to announce for the platform. With how the platform was treated at E3 (it was not featured at all in the E3 Direct), it might be possible Nintendo is retreating on plans to support the platform through 2019.

If that is the case, it might be a possibility that the rumored Wario Land title, might be the last notable exclusive game made for the 3DS (and even then that game might end up being retooled to be cross-gen like the Captain Toad port, Sushi Strikers, and according to rumors, the Luigi's Mansion port).

One less Nintendo Direct means one less opportunity for a character unveil. Each week that goes by without new information, the probability of each additional non-echo newcomer slot slightly goes down. RomanceDawn personally spoke to one of the higher up's at NOA, and he personally told him that "there really are not that many characters left." What this means, is open to a myriad of interpretation as to what is the upper and lower limits to the integers involved in this statement. Personally, I see it as five or six non-echo newcomers left at most.

Now who fares well under a scenario where there are only five or six newcomers left? That is again open to interpretation. For example, K. Rool is far, far more popularly requested than Geno, but fans of Geno can point to Sakurai's own statements on the character as a sign of the character having favor over K. Rool in terms of "priority". Who has priority in a situation where there are not enough seats for your biggest prospective guests? We can only guess.

Since this is the Ashley thread, I think the topic should go to Ashley. Where does she stand? She is most likely in the Top 10 most wanted newcomers on the Japanese side of things. She had been a character that was cross-promoted in a lot of other Nintendo media (most notable the Badge Arcade and 3DS themes). This in particular shows Nintendo thought Ashley had enough appeal for people to spend money on media just for her alone.

How many people? How much money? I do not have the figures, and I have no idea how many and how much (Nintendo might have disclosed somewhere how much money the Badge Arcade and Nintendo 3DS themes have made them, however, I doubt they gave the figures on how much Ashley related media was bought and how much income it brought them). However, what we do know is that Sakurai has gone on the record to say Smash Bros. does promote other Nintendo media, especially media that is relatively contemporary at the time. Is Ashley a brand? If Nintendo sees her as one, despite her not becoming any more prominent (or much more prominent) than the rest of the WarioWare cast within the WarioWare games, she might be promoted into a character slot. I would see this as a likely newcomer under a normal Smash Bros. scenario.

However, Ultimate is not a normal scenario. This is the first game since Melee, where the entire previous cast has returned (and indeed Sakurai has said that this most likely will be the only time that this will ever happen), and also, the only game where its unveil did not keep people guessing and speculating as to who was coming back. The tradeoff though was for in exchange for every single member of Smash's cast getting one more time in the spotlight, there would be a much lower figure of true newcomers than there was for Brawl and Smash 4. I imagine the echo fighters will be fulfilling the same role that Melee's six clones did, they will exist to fluff up the number of new fighters to the game due to the number of unique newcomers being low compared to the previous installment.

Does Ashley stand tall in such a landscape? Let us look at whom has been added so far. Inklings and Ridley. For the former, Splatoon has been an absolutely enormous success. Splatoon is now a bigger franchise in Japan than Final Fantasy. Splatoon was the second-highest selling Wii U game in Japan (with only New Super Mario Bros. U, a launch title and a sidescrolling Mario game, selling more). Splatoon 2 is the highest selling Switch game in Japan, and has sold on par with the likes of Brawl and Smash 4 3DS in Japan, both of which were the highest selling Smash games in Japan, and Splatoon 2 is stilling selling (it will probably crack three million copies sold in Japan alone eventually). There is a very strong reason why Inklings were featured alongside Mario and Link as the only characters shown in the Ultimate teaser back in March. They are that big now (at least on the Japanese side of things).

Then we have Ridley. Ridley was among the very few characters left whom was implemented in his own franchise from the very beginning and such a critical actor in his own series that he made more regular appearances in his own franchise than Ganon/Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda series. Ridley had been a very popularly requested character among Western Smash Bros. fans for over 17 years. He, alongside Samus and Metroid, is one of few the faces of the Metroid series, one of Nintendo's most esteemed and long running franchises. He was just as much a titan and a legend as the Inklings were (in their short history).

Now where does Ashley fit? She is not Inkling or Ridley, that is for sure. However, within the past few years, Ashley has become a sort of brand, especially so for Nintendo's dedicated handheld, the 3DS. If there is ONE WarioWare character that has notoriety, excluding the series namesake character, its Ashley. However, does Nintendo plan to continue to make Ashley a "brand"? She got a dedicated mini-game in WarioWare Gold, and its conceivable that such a game could be sold separately as a 3DS download only title (much like Pyoro was sold separately on the DSiWare shop). However, what is Ashley's future?

That last question is important. An integral consideration that Sakurai had when deciding much of Smash 4's roster, was just that. WarioWare as a series, was on a five year hiatus from Game & Wario to WarioWare Gold. The five year hiatus did not stop Ashley though. She continued to appear in other media and games. This might be taken as a sign that Nintendo sees Ashley beyond WarioWare.

However, it is not just what Nintendo's consideration is, it is Sakurai's consideration too. Take this for example. Back during Brawl's development, Miyamoto suggested to Sakurai that Pac-Man would make a great guest character, and Sakurai just laughed it off, thinking of Pac-Man as just a pie-shaped circle when dismissing him. This is an integral example, as Nintendo could make the suggestion of "hey, you should promote Ashley", and Sakurai could just think, "what has she done to warrant to make her playable, she just seems like just another member of Wario's crew? I only have some many slots available this time for new characters."

The question then falls under further scrutiny when you take into consideration just how few true newcomers Sakurai has time to implement. Is Ashley more important than promoting the current face of Pokemon? Is she more important to promote than K. Rool or Dixie Kong? More important to promote than Bandanna Dee? More important than putting in someone representing Rhythm Heaven? Do all or some trump Ashley?

I feel that if Ashley does make it in, its not just going to be her popularity or "I think she could be an interesting fighter", but the fact that Nintendo might see her as a sort of "brand" separate from Wario. There is some evidence for this, and it will be interesting to see if it continues in the future.

I feel Ashley still has good prospects for getting in despite Gold's release coming and going. We most likely will have Wario as today's update so that something is being used to promote Gold's Japanese release.

However, she is far from a shoe-in. She can easily not make it just due to the fact that there are very few non-echo newcomer slots left. Keep all this in mind as you either put Ashley on your prospective rosters, or hope for her inclusion.

Edit, some additional thoughts to add:
Ashley's strongest point is not "Japanese popularity" but rather if Nintendo sees her as a "brand" separate from WarioWare (the amount of Ashley themed badges in the Badge Arcade and Ashley 3DS themes might be evidence for this). Under other considerations (being the most popular WarioWare character aside from Wario, possible moveset potential) probably are not enough for her to get in as as a newcomer under Ultimate's unique circumstances.

Does Nintendo make money off of Ashley alone? Can they continue to make money off her alone? If the answers to those questions is "Yes, and A LOT", she stands taller than even the likes of K. Rool. That is how a side character from a relatively less notable Nintendo franchise manages to get in as an unique fighter when there are less than ten unique newcomer slots available.

 

[LittleKrool]

Japanese Ashley (And as expected, like before, she references herself in the third-person E.g "Ashley will take care of it." when she speaks.)

 

[StormC]

Splatoon is now a bigger franchise in Japan than Final Fantasy.

How would you quantify this?

RomanceDawn personally spoke to one of the higher up's at NOA, and he personally told him that "there really are not that many characters left."

Is this different from talking to a Treehouse person at Comic-Con? All I remember is that person repeated Sakurai's words, pretty much.

 

[ChronoBound]

How would you quantify this?



Is this different from talking to a Treehouse person at Comic-Con? All I remember is that person repeated Sakurai's words, pretty much.

Splatoon and Splatoon 2 both outsold FFXIII and FFXV. Final Fantasy has not had a game that has sold over two million copies since Final Fantasy XII which was released all the way back in 2006, and I am not even 100% sure FFXII sold over two million copies in Japan alone.

As to your second question, that is who I was talking about in relation to RomanceDawn. He did say that particular quote, "there really are not that many characters left." I pressed RomanceDawn on the NOA's rep language and that was the sentence he used.

As for my post I posted above, I had not finished typing it, and I accidentally hit submit, so please re-read it because I have just finished typing out my thoughts.

Ashley's strongest point is not "Japanese popularity" but rather if Nintendo sees her as a "brand" separate from WarioWare (the amount of Ashley themed badges in the Badge Arcade and Ashley 3DS themes might be evidence for this). Under other considerations (being the most popular WarioWare character aside from Wario, possible moveset potential) probably are not enough in Ultimate's unique circumstances.

Does Nintendo make money off of Ashley alone? Can they continue to make money off her alone? If the answers to those questions is "Yes, and A LOT", she stands taller than even the likes of K. Rool. That is how a side character from a relatively less notable Nintendo franchise manages to get in as an unique fighter when there are less than ten unique newcomer slots available.

 

[StormC]

Splatoon and Splatoon 2 both outsold FFXIII and FFXV. Final Fantasy has not had a game that has sold over two million copies since Final Fantasy XII which was released all the way back in 2006, and I am not even 100% sure FFXII sold over two million copies in Japan alone.

I see, that's what I figured. Splatoon is a monster. Thanks!

As to your second question, that is who I was talking about in relation to RomanceDawn. He did say that particular quote, "there really are not that many characters left." I pressed RomanceDawn on the NOA's rep language and that was the sentence he used.

Alright, cool. That makes sense. My personal feeling is the realistic limit is 8 unique characters like Melee. However, I don't suspect we will be inundated with clones/echoes like we were in Melee; Brawl and 4 both only added 3ish. The Melee clones were meant to help beef up a roster so it doubled from Smash 64, while we're already at almost 70 characters, doing such a thing seems unnecessary, especially if the big draw of the game is "everyone is here!"

Ashley's strongest point is not "Japanese popularity" but rather if Nintendo sees her as a "brand" separate from WarioWare (the amount of Ashley themed badges in the Badge Arcade and Ashley 3DS themes might be evidence for this). Under other considerations (being the most popular WarioWare character aside from Wario, possible moveset potential) probably are not enough in Ultimate's unique circumstances.

Does Nintendo make money off of Ashley alone? Can they continue to make money off her alone? If the answers to those questions is "Yes, and A LOT", she stands taller than even the likes of K. Rool. That is how a side character from a relatively less notable Nintendo franchise manages to get in as an unique fighter when there are less than ten unique newcomer slots available.

I agree with this pretty much. Ashley's popularity is just a bonus; the fact that she's been so heavily promoted by Nintendo in the last few years, especially around the time of the design document, is a major boon for her. I'm close to 50/50 on Ashley making it in; call it 55%. I'd put her as the third most likely Nintendo newcomer after K. Rool and Bandana Dee. Not that it necessarily means "first K. Rool gets in, then Dee, then Ashley," just that if I had to bet on the dice roll, some characters have better odds than others.

 

[AngrySun88]

The fact that Nintendo has been promoting Ashley (Badge Arcade, 3DS themes, Mii costume) is why I think she has a fairly decent shot at being playable this time. Why else are they promoting her, a seemingly random WarioWare character, over other first party characters?

Not to mention her huge popularity in Japan doesn't hurt her chances either.

 

[Erotic&Heretic]

Welp. We did get something for WWGold's japanese release, even though it's just Wario. But it does promote the new game instead of showing the origins on the japanese blog.

 

[OdnetninAges]

Wario is today's update?

Ashley confirmed, boiz!

 

[Nap_]

Yeah, probably this time there's not so many newcomer slots but there isn't so many big characters neither.
Maybe Ashley is not as popular worldwide as K. Rool, not the face of her franchise as Springman, not as iconic as Belmont, not even a spinoff, just some merch, potential and fandom. And that's not bad, more than some confirmed characters.
Ashley, as I see, is between sure shots or those who will not make it. I'm pretty sure about a Kong newcomer this time, but not so sure for Ashley. She's a strange choice. If in Wario Ware there's some hierarchy, logic says that Jimmy or Mona are the Luigi of Wario Ware, but Ashley is much more popular. It's a very particular case. Imagine if we get Dixie before Diddy. But Ashley fits in it.
She got some high cards, but maybe not the best. If she's not in the base game she will be a good candidate for DLC, only beign an AT could kill her chances.
Nintendo seems concerned about the Ashley popularity, it depends of Sakurai.
If is not in this Smash, would be in other, Ashley got high potential as character even outside Wario Ware.

Edit: Guys, this is strange. Wario is on the spanish website too, maybe also in the rest. Normally they never update at this hours, it's 3:00 in the night. Could be nothing but its a very stupid week with updates.
HYPE. THEY ARE TOUCHIN CODE IN THE WEB. PREPARE TO EVOOO!

 

[AngrySun88]

Welp. We did get something for WWGold's japanese release, even though it's just Wario. But it does promote the new game instead of showing the origins on the japanese blog.

Still doesn't confirm or not confirm Ashley. We'll see what Friday's update is. If it's Ashley as an AT, then it's game over, but if it ignores Ashley, then there's still hope for her as a playable character.

But it's nice that they acknowledge WarioWare, and Ashley is the most popular character in the series.

 

[Euler23]

Why does WarioWare get its own tag in the blog?

 

[Erotic&Heretic]

Still doesn't confirm or not confirm Ashley. We'll see what Friday's update is. If it's Ashley as an AT, then it's game over, but if it ignores Ashley, then there's still hope for her as a playable character.

But it's nice that they acknowledge WarioWare, and Ashley is the most popular character in the series.

Yep, today is about Wario, not Ashley. So our hopes aren't crushed... Nor confirmed.
The interesting thing here is that this is the first time that promotion for a new game is made on the website (japanese only).

Add the fact that the Japanese site uses the WW Gold logo here https://www.smashbros.com/ja_JP/fighter/series.html and now things are interesting!

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Why does WarioWare get its own tag in the blog?

Because it's not Wario Land. And it has actual content in Smash by design. Wario is specifically based upon that series too... so this shouldn't be that surprising.

 

[Noipoi]

Ashley's in this weird place where in certain aspects her chances are high, while in some others her chances are a little worse.
I guess it just comes down to what Nintendo and Sakurai want to do with her, but seeing all her recent promotions gives me hope that they'll want to promote her in the biggest video game crossover in history. Maybe test a wider market?

 

[AngrySun88]

Yep, today is about Wario, not Ashley. So our hopes aren't crushed... Nor confirmed.
The interesting thing here is that this is the first time that promotion for a new game is made on the website (japanese only).

Add the fact that the Japanese site uses the WW Gold logo here https://www.smashbros.com/ja_JP/fighter/series.html and now things are interesting!

That makes me both excited and nervous about Friday. I have a feeling that Friday's update will be WarioWare related, but I'm nervous that it'll be Ashley as an assist trophy. We'll have to see then.

I really hope there's an August Direct that reveals her then.

 

[BluePikmin11]

If the constant flow of F-Zero content last week is any indication, we might see more Wario content on Friday. It could be stages, Assist Trophies, items, or even a character.

Who knows? Keep expectations in check.

 

[Noipoi]

That makes me both excited and nervous about Friday. I have a feeling that Friday's update will be WarioWare related, but I'm nervous that it'll be Ashley as an assist trophy. We'll have to see then.

I really hope there's an August Direct that reveals her then.

At this point I hope Friday is nothing about Ashley, because I don't think we''ll get a direct.
Even it would be the perfect time i'd rather we get nothing now so we can get a playable Ashley later this year.

 

[Arkaizer]

I think what Euler23 is talking about is how the blog normally tags posts. For Wario's post today they included a "WarioWare" tag, which is very strange considering no other series has been tagged like that so far, not even newcomers like Ridley or Inklings were tagged with "Metroid" or "Splatoon", so now the blog looks like this:

It's very strange, and I wonder if it was just a blunder on the part of person who put up the blog post.

 

[Noipoi]

I think what Euler23 is talking about is how the blog normally tags posts. For Wario's post today they included a "WarioWare" tag, which is very strange considering no other series has been tagged like that so far, not even newcomers like Ridley or Inklings were tagged with "Metroid" or "Splatoon", so now the blog looks like this:
View attachment 155250
It's very strange, and I wonder if it was just a blunder on the part of person who put up the blog post.

It was no blunder.
Ashley is so important she gets her own tag.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Okay, now that is strange. Though it could be just to heavily promote "Get the new WarioWare Gold".

 

[Space Detective]

I think what Euler23 is talking about is how the blog normally tags posts. For Wario's post today they included a "WarioWare" tag, which is very strange considering no other series has been tagged like that so far, not even newcomers like Ridley or Splatoon were tagged with "Metroid" or "Splatoon", so now the blog looks like this:
View attachment 155250
It's very strange, and I wonder if it was just a blunder on the part of person who put up the blog post.

Looking over at the Japanese site, they seem to be good on tagging posts with the series that the fighter/stage/item in question is from.
I think this is more likely to either be a blunder by someone copy-and-pasting the tags from the Japanese site without thinking whether the English site uses series tags, or someone preparing to start properly tagging all the posts with the appropriate series.

 

[NintenZ]

I find it a little strange though that they used Gold as the Memory instead of something like Super Mario Land 2...

Hm...

 

[AngrySun88]

I think what Euler23 is talking about is how the blog normally tags posts. For Wario's post today they included a "WarioWare" tag, which is very strange considering no other series has been tagged like that so far, not even newcomers like Ridley or Inklings were tagged with "Metroid" or "Splatoon", so now the blog looks like this:
View attachment 155250
It's very strange, and I wonder if it was just a blunder on the part of person who put up the blog post.

Okay, this is unusual. It's probably just human error, but my speculative side is telling me that there could be something more to this.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I find it a little strange though that they used Gold as the Memory instead of something like Super Mario Land 2...

Hm...

WarioWare Gold released around this time. Wario is based upon WarioWare for his moveset. It's not that strange.

 

[NintenZ]

WarioWare Gold released around this time. Wario is based upon WarioWare for his moveset. It's not that strange.

I mean the point of Memories is that they're that, Memories, it seems strange that they're going off of the more recent games instead of something like even the Gameboy Advance game...

But who knows?

 

[Space Detective]

I mean the point of Memories is that they're that, Memories, it seems strange that they're going off of the more recent games instead of something like even the Gameboy Advance game...

Yeah exactly. This is the first memory post to explicitly be about the latest game in a character's series. The closest it came to that before now is the Shadow Dragon NES post reminding us that Three Houses was announced, and even then that post was still primarily focused on the original NES game.

It makes sense to promote it, but it's still weird that they broke the pattern.

 

[Jazzy Jinx]

You know honestly, as a matter of branding, Ashley would make more sense than Bandana Dee. Ashley has a unique advantage in being a break-out character whereas Bandana Dee, though a popular character to be sure, doesn't (to my knowledge) receive special marketing that makes him an individually profit-driving force (at least outside of the Kirby franchise itself) and certainly wouldn't be a priority character over Kirby himself or Meta Knight or Dedede. Ashley, however, is her own brand irrespective of Wario and the Ware series. And now, having seen the Japanese voice acting for her in the new game, I could add "Moe" to her description (a popular archetype in Japan AND highly marketable).

I can't help but think that Nintendo, at the very least, is testing the waters with her. They appear to be market testing her to see if they might have something more. Since we don't have ready access to sales data (of her 3DS themes and such) though, it's difficult to quantify her popularity, however we can read the tea leaves. Take for instance the earlier conversation we had about Ashley's 3DS theme being available as a reward on My Nintendo. Though it's unfortunate she isn't available in the EU, it does give us a data point to consider: she's available in the US. Considering the US has access to all 3 of her 3DS themes and considering one of those themes is being offered as a My Nintendo reward (albeit a cheaper one), I think it would be fair to say that her popularity is increasing in the US.

This could be massive.

If this estimation is correct, they might be tempted to pull the trigger. An appearance in a Smash Bros. title goes a long way in boosting a franchise (as well as the character themselves) and can solidify that franchise (or let's say "brand" as ChronoBound puts it, since in this case Ashley would be selling herself as the "brand") as a sustainable revenue source. It's why I'd almost be willing to bet my life on us getting another Xenoblade rep, if not 2/3 (depending on how you classify Rex/Pyra), as it "solidifies" the series. (For clarification, my assumption is Elma for the base roster and Rex/Pyra for DLC.)

The only concern might be whether or not Nintendo feels like they've done enough market testing for Ashley and whether or not they believe she has enough exposure currently. As well, it matters what they intend to do with her character if they can "solidify" her as a revenue generator. Does she get more spin-offs? More appearances in the Wario series? More in the Mario series? Certainly we'd get a plushy or something at the least. How would they plan to maximize her profit potential?

It's an important question because Nintendo themselves might not know the answer. Right now it seems they're playing it safe by just doing simple stuff with her: "Let's try a 3DS theme." "It sold...? Alright, well how about another." "That too!? Hmm... Then how about the Badges." "That good!? Okay. Then something bigger... How about a Super Mario Maker skin??" "Good! Well then... what next?"

It's pretty clear to me that they're testing the waters. Personally, I feel like they've done enough at this point to where they could pull the trigger, add her to Smash Bros and then ride the wave by including her in a best seller like Mario Kart and then start printing money, but I could see the logic in a more conservative approach.

I will say, however, she's a lock for Smash 6.

Edit: You guys are too fast! >_>

Crossing my fingers for Kat and Ana on Friday. Though honestly, as long as Ashley doesn't get deconfirmed as an Assist, I think you could actually make a valid argument that her chances have increased.

 

[Noipoi]

You know honestly, as a matter of branding, Ashley would make more sense than Bandana Dee. Ashley has a unique advantage in being a break-out character whereas Bandana Dee, though a popular character to be sure, doesn't (to my knowledge) receive special marketing that makes him an individually profit-driving force (at least outside of the Kirby franchise itself) and certainly wouldn't be a priority character over Kirby himself or Meta Knight or Dedede. Ashley, however, is her own brand irrespective of Wario and the Ware series. And now, having seen the Japanese voice acting for her in the new game, I could add "Moe" to her description (a popular archetype in Japan AND highly marketable).

I can't help but think that Nintendo, at the very least, is testing the waters with her. They appear to be market testing her to see if they might have something more. Since we don't have ready access to sales data (of her 3DS themes and such) though, it's difficult to quantify her popularity, however we can read the tea leaves. Take for instance the earlier conversation we had about Ashley's 3DS theme being available as a reward on My Nintendo. Though it's unfortunate she isn't available in the EU, it does give us a data point to consider: she's available in the US. Considering the US has access to all 3 of her 3DS themes and considering one of those themes is being offered as a My Nintendo reward (albeit a cheaper one), I think it would be fair to say that her popularity is increasing in the US.

This could be massive.

If this estimation is correct, they might be tempted to pull the trigger. An appearance in a Smash Bros. title goes a long way in boosting a franchise (as well as the character themselves) and can solidify that franchise (or let's say "brand" as ChronoBound puts it, since in this case Ashley would be selling herself as the "brand") as a sustainable revenue source. It's why I'd almost be willing to bet my life on us getting another Xenoblade rep, if not 2/3 (depending on how you classify Rex/Pyra), as it "solidifies" the series. (For clarification, my assumption is Elma for the base roster and Rex/Pyra for DLC.)

The only concern might be whether or not Nintendo feels like they've done enough market testing for Ashley and whether or not they believe she has enough exposure currently. As well, it matters what they intend to do with her character if they can "solidify" her as a revenue generator. Does she get more spin-offs? More appearances in the Wario series? More in the Mario series? Certainly we'd get a plushie or something at the least. How would they plan to maximize her profit potential?

It's an important question because Nintendo themselves might not know the answer. Right now it seems they're playing it safe by just doing simple stuff with her: "Let's try a 3DS theme." "It sold...? Alright, well how about another." "That too!? Hmm... Then how about the Badges." "That good!? Okay. Then something bigger... How about a Super Mario Maker skin??" "Good! Well then... what next?"

It's pretty clear to me that they're testing the waters. Personally, I feel like they've done enough at this point to where they could pull the trigger, add her to Smash Bros and then ride the wave by including her in a best seller like Mario Kart and then start printing money, but I could see the logic in a more conservative approach.

I will say, however, she's a lock for Smash 6.

Ashley's definitely in the market testing, "Can we make money with her?" phase.
I hope they take the risk and just put her in, the existing Ashley fans would go nuts and you could even make some new Ashley fans in the process.
Like the people who didn't know Ness until Smash 64. Also I would absolutely love an Ashley plushy.

 

[DarkFalcon]

With Wario as today's fighter and WarioWare right around the corner. It's time for increasingly nervous refreshing and hoping to not see Ashley as an assist revealed.

 

[BluePikmin11]

We gotta see if Ashley marketing will multiply in Japan to promote WarioWare Gold. So far, I have only seen a bit of her cut out advertisements and a bit of coverage of the Ashley mini-game, not much else.

 

[AngrySun88]

Smash is a great opportunity to market characters to test their potential. They already did that with Corrin in Smash 4 and could do the same for Ashley in Smash 5. They already know she's very popular in Japan and they've been testing the waters with her with other marketing. Perhaps she could be a character in that rumored Wario Land game or they could use her in Smash to test her popularity to have her own spin off game since she's clearly the breakout character in WarioWare.

 

[NintenZ]

So I looked on this Discord and none of what’s in this leak actually seems at all far-fetched.

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/426237990/smash-bros-ultimate-leak

For those who don’t know someone pointed out that all of the costumes may have not been shown off, since Little Mac used to have 16 costumes and is now down to 8.

I wouldn’t get our hopes up JUST yet, but I wanted to bring this to attention.

 

[meleebrawler]

You know honestly, as a matter of branding, Ashley would make more sense than Bandana Dee. Ashley has a unique advantage in being a break-out character whereas Bandana Dee, though a popular character to be sure, doesn't (to my knowledge) receive special marketing that makes him an individually profit-driving force (at least outside of the Kirby franchise itself) and certainly wouldn't be a priority character over Kirby himself or Meta Knight or Dedede. Ashley, however, is her own brand irrespective of Wario and the Ware series. And now, having seen the Japanese voice acting for her in the new game, I could add "Moe" to her description (a popular archetype in Japan AND highly marketable).

I can't help but think that Nintendo, at the very least, is testing the waters with her. They appear to be market testing her to see if they might have something more. Since we don't have ready access to sales data (of her 3DS themes and such) though, it's difficult to quantify her popularity, however we can read the tea leaves. Take for instance the earlier conversation we had about Ashley's 3DS theme being available as a reward on My Nintendo. Though it's unfortunate she isn't available in the EU, it does give us a data point to consider: she's available in the US. Considering the US has access to all 3 of her 3DS themes and considering one of those themes is being offered as a My Nintendo reward (albeit a cheaper one), I think it would be fair to say that her popularity is increasing in the US.

This could be massive.

If this estimation is correct, they might be tempted to pull the trigger. An appearance in a Smash Bros. title goes a long way in boosting a franchise (as well as the character themselves) and can solidify that franchise (or let's say "brand" as ChronoBound puts it, since in this case Ashley would be selling herself as the "brand") as a sustainable revenue source. It's why I'd almost be willing to bet my life on us getting another Xenoblade rep, if not 2/3 (depending on how you classify Rex/Pyra), as it "solidifies" the series. (For clarification, my assumption is Elma for the base roster and Rex/Pyra for DLC.)

The only concern might be whether or not Nintendo feels like they've done enough market testing for Ashley and whether or not they believe she has enough exposure currently. As well, it matters what they intend to do with her character if they can "solidify" her as a revenue generator. Does she get more spin-offs? More appearances in the Wario series? More in the Mario series? Certainly we'd get a plushy or something at the least. How would they plan to maximize her profit potential?

It's an important question because Nintendo themselves might not know the answer. Right now it seems they're playing it safe by just doing simple stuff with her: "Let's try a 3DS theme." "It sold...? Alright, well how about another." "That too!? Hmm... Then how about the Badges." "That good!? Okay. Then something bigger... How about a Super Mario Maker skin??" "Good! Well then... what next?"

It's pretty clear to me that they're testing the waters. Personally, I feel like they've done enough at this point to where they could pull the trigger, add her to Smash Bros and then ride the wave by including her in a best seller like Mario Kart and then start printing money, but I could see the logic in a more conservative approach.

I will say, however, she's a lock for Smash 6.

Edit: You guys are too fast! >_>

Crossing my fingers for Kat and Ana on Friday. Though honestly, as long as Ashley doesn't get deconfirmed as an Assist, I think you could actually make a valid argument that her chances have increased.

They kind of already took the next logical step by giving her her own minigame in Gold. If demand and/or praise for the minigame rises enough it could see a full eshop release akin to Kirby minigames.

And it does look like they have a genre in mind for her take part in; shoot-em-ups, either of the 2D sidescrolling or top-down variety. Nintendo certainly doesn't really have a franchise for those, other than Kirby frequently dabbling in them and Star Fox which is 3D.

 

[Arkaizer]

For those who don’t know someone pointed out that all of the costumes may have not been shown off, since Little Mac used to have 16 costumes and is now down to 8.

The extra costumes thing does make some sense now that you mention it. Remember how people raised an eyebrow to the fact that Meta Ridley was shown off in Ridley's trailer (presumably as an alt) and yet said costume wasn't anywhere in the demo? Interesting stuff.

 

[Noipoi]

So I looked on this Discord and none of what’s in this leak actually seems at all far-fetched.

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/426237990/smash-bros-ultimate-leak

For those who don’t know someone pointed out that all of the costumes may have not been shown off, since Little Mac used to have 16 costumes and is now down to 8.

I wouldn’t get our hopes up JUST yet, but I wanted to bring this to attention.

It's fake. I love it but it's probably fake.
I'd love to be proven wrong though, guess we'll see soon.
The costume thing does seem rather interesting though...