How is everyone feeling about Black Knight's current chances? I think his main competition is Shadow, Ken, Dixie Kong, Impa, and Medusa. Honestly, it's hard to imagine BK getting in over most of those. The Mii costume helps. I'm over all not feeling too confident unless there are a lot of echoes left.
For me his odds are a respectable 63%, and I would even be so bold as to say if DLC is a thing (and I see no good reason for it not to be), I would put his DLC odds at 87%, the reason why is because as DLC, Sakurai has the hindsight of heroes Black knight and zelgius to consider, two units who are known for being arena staples (with the latter being arguably the best sword user in heroes, seriously though warping up to 3 spaces when above 80% hp, armor stats, a special that ignores 80% of defense, and innate distant counter borders on being broken)
his mii fighter costume says so much to me, the mear fact that they made brand new assets speaks volumes about the desire to add him, we had the black knight trophy and PoR/RD models to work with and if that was too old to use effectively, why bother outside of a real interest to add him or demand just being high enough, navarre makes more sense to add as a mii fighter costume due to the marth relation and being the original fire emblem swordmaster, or even lyn for that matter (though lyn seems to get the shaft in smash bros quite a bit these days, despite being more popular than lucina amongst core fans at least).
castle siege is odd and certainly could point to something, but equally could be an oversight on the part of a rogue developer, so maybe, maybe not.
chrom I also agree with some that he isn't a 1:1 Ike (and probably wouldn't work anyways, I will argue that the awakening falchion seems way larger than shadow dragon and chrom's style is way heavier than marth, but as a roy echo he gets a bunch of moves which need extra effects but don't have them), hairmythe said that chrom is an echo, I think this is because chrom just doesn't have enough unique traits to make him work as a semi clone whereas isabelle is an excuse to cram in some more animal crossing references like the fishing rod or the different lloyd.
another thing that I noticed was that in the reveal of chrom, they explicitly stated that chrom was popular in japan specifically, this detail seemed weird to me and thinking on it, I always found that the black knight seems to be more popular in the west (mostly due to darth vader parallels and our love for villians), this also could be a point in his favor for general reach.
Heroes vs. Villains also makes sense to help his odds.
then there is boss potential, I don't see it, he is too small to be a boss and his moves lack the flash or distinctiveness to be a boss, the only real solution would be to size him up, but that would be forced, and also cut off any DLC possibilities, ridley fans were not OK with a boss, because they want to use him and see him more often, I see no reason to see it any differently for the black knight. also, if we need a fire emblem boss, medeus, big scary dragon is a better representation of fire emblem bosses and was the original climactic fire emblem boss, he also has size which is vague enough to make whatever you need it to be and extra garnef shenanigans are also possible if you want some extra stand out moves. the point is Black Knight would be a bad boss in comparison to other options from fire emblem, due to being small, having easy to dodge hitboxes, and having too little flash to really work as a boss (epic in fire emblem and in theory, but in practice, there is very little to work with, you have seen his basic attack right? slow over the head attack isn't a good boss move due to being easy to respond to), not to mention, a real slap in the face to those who want him to be playable (see reactions to pyrosphere), I want him playable not "in the game" or "better than nothing", I rather see his mii fighter costume make a dramatic return than that, because at least I can use that.
(I liked Pyrosphere though, I don't care about the weirdness having tiny ridley next to boss ridley, those were fun boss mechanics that I would like to see return)
edit: two other things that I noticed, in the mural on the website, Ike seems to be looking to his left, now, I don't think we can say anything definitive quite yet, but if I was going to add the black knight to smash, I would put him to Ike's left, between him and bowser, you can say that he is trying to took at the audience, but it looks like he is looking further to his left than to just look at the audience.
second, Ike's posture is straighter than previous games, this could also point to the black knight who stands much straighter generally, again, nothing definitive, but still something that I can see them changing if he was intended as a echo who needs to mostly be the same as the original, they also could just be wanting Ike to be more like a middle ground between PoR and RD.