Let met describe the situation:
1.Lucario trys to approach wario to stab him.
2.Lucario enters wario's reach, withought wario entering lucarios reach.
3.Wario throw some punches.
4.1.Lucario dodges them, somehow having abnormal reflexes for a animal(not so realistic).
4.2.Lucarios gets knocked down.
5.1.Lucario goes for the stab
5.2.Wario "climb" up the knocked lucario and start punching his face.
6.1a. Lucario stabs warios belly
6.1b. Lucario stabs legs
6.1c. Lucario stabs arms/hands
6.1d. Lucarios stab face/eyes
6.2. Lucario dies
7.1a Wario wont feel ****(fat) and knocks him down with punches. > dies
7.1b Wario will feel pain, but not that much, meaning he can just knock lucario down > die
7.1c If lucarios stabs the arms, his spines will break because arm bones are way stronger. If he stabs a close fist, his spike will break, and both will feel some pain, with lucario now witought his main weapon. Or he stabs hands.
7.1d Lucario will prolly win against a blinde wario.
8.1c If lucario stabs a open hand, his bone will barely ierce thorugh flesh and reach the bone. Your hands palm is one of your hardest bone in the body, meaning the spike will just preaker and wario will punch him.
Result: Wario has just too many ways to win this situatuin, as luc going for the head is a all or nothing with wario getting tons of chances on knocking lucario down.
Edit:In this fight, lucarios spike is made of his bone, and as we previously stated, his bone structure is kinda weak, so thats why his spike in many situations wont ble able to do as much as wanted damage.
Edit2: call joe.