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Sunrise, Sunset - Isaac for Smash Ultimate #GoldenSunday

Eagle

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Sadly, as I say in my signature, english is not my first language so i really struggle to write it fluently (i need to check all the time if I made some mistakes ^^'). But hey, if sometime you need some ideas, just ask.
Hey, man. I'm an English teacher and your English is fantastic. Keep it up! What's your native language?

I doubt they'd release all newcomers via blog. That happened in Brawl and then it was all Directs and stuff I think.
 
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RandomAce

Smash Champion
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This would be so awesome if it was real but unfortunately 4Chan is rarely reliable when it comes to leaks so this is most likely fake

https://twitter.com/IsaacforSmash
Hmm... You should add a banner for this twitter page. Maybe change the profile pic to something more clean? Idk I want to make this page look as clean and good as people so if there is any place to support, this will be it.
 

Isaac: Venus Adept

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Hmm... You should add a banner for this twitter page. Maybe change the profile pic to something more clean? Idk I want to make this page look as clean and good as people so if there is any place to support, this will be it.
I tried to do a banner but it's hard getting the size right. If you want you can make one and send it to me
 

Falgor

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Sure! I might get one by the end of tomorrow.
Thank you very much! I agree wholeheartedly, a good campaign starts with good looks.

Right now the most important question regarding the account is imo the schedule. I think it's not a big deal if we repost things that have been posted previously because it's a brand new account. But it'd be more clean to know what we will post at which moment.
Once we've made that clear we can start focusing on relatively less important details.

I'd also like to have opinions about the tweets showing support to Isaac from the community, do we retweet them? Do we just like them?
Since they're usually not text heavy tweets I'd say it's okay to retweet them, it's not like we'll spam people with that.
 

RandomAce

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Thank you very much! I agree wholeheartedly, a good campaign starts with good looks.

Right now the most important question regarding the account is imo the schedule. I think it's not a big deal if we repost things that have been posted previously because it's a brand new account. But it'd be more clean to know what we will post at which moment.
Once we've made that clear we can start focusing on relatively less important details.


I'd also like to have opinions about the tweets showing support to Isaac from the community, do we retweet them? Do we just like them?
Since they're usually not text heavy tweets I'd say it's okay to retweet them, it's not like we'll spam people with that.
Hmm... If it’s other people’s content then yeah most community twitter pages usuallly retweet stuff.
 

Katy Parry

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I’ve went through and RT almost everything I can find. I’d be glad to help run the twitter account. I’m pretty personable, and I think TRIVIA is our ticket in. Maybe even get a prize for a random correct answer
 

Katy Parry

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I’ve even tweeted Sakurai with the hashtag
#isaacandsakurai

Also guys waluigi was requested heavily and was deconfirmed on the spot. It’s pretty much written in the stars at this point. Nintendo has very little to pull from in terms of representing a new NINTENDO IP. other than splatoon, what’s possibly left?

Oh, I don’t know, a game that’s sold over 1 million copies on gba
 
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Skyblade12

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This reddit poll came up again. Interestingly enough, if these were all unique responses, it's one of the largest polls taken, over 10k respondents.
 

Sabrewulf238

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I doubt they'd release all newcomers via blog. That happened in Brawl and then it was all Directs and stuff I think.
Not that I believe this leak but not all newcomers for the last game were revealed in a direct. Lucina and Robin were revealed in a trailer that was posted to the official website. (though we did get confirmation it would be going up a day or so before, so it wasn't completely random)

So what the leak is suggesting isn't necessarily that strange. Still don't think there's any truth to it though.
 
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Skyblade12

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This reddit poll came up again. Interestingly enough, if these were all unique responses, it's one of the largest polls taken, over 10k respondents.
10k seemed like enough to be statistically significant. So I did some math.

The ballot had a population of about 1.8 million.
The reddit poll had a sample size of about 10 thousand.

Isaac got 12% of the votes in that poll.

Statistically speaking, we can be 95% sure Isaac got 11-13% of the votes in the ballot, assuming that is an unbiased poll.
 

Organization XIII

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10k seemed like enough to be statistically significant. So I did some math.

The ballot had a population of about 1.8 million.
The reddit poll had a sample size of about 10 thousand.

Isaac got 12% of the votes in that poll.

Statistically speaking, we can be 95% sure Isaac got 11-13% of the votes in the ballot, assuming that is an unbiased poll.
Nice use of a confidence interval there. Also, can I just say if the ballot mirrored this poll and our newcomers were basically this top section I would have Isaac Banjo and Paper Mario in Smash and would never need another new character (until Takamaru was viable again)
 

Skyblade12

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Nice use of a confidence interval there. Also, can I just say if the ballot mirrored this poll and our newcomers were basically this top section I would have Isaac Banjo and Paper Mario in Smash and would never need another new character (until Takamaru was viable again)
Thanks. Had to quickly teach myself some statistics. :)

About that confidence interval: Bayonetta is within that +/- 1% of beating Snake for Top 5 (in the US). Making this seem to match the only empirical data we have on the ballot, further lending to its veracity.
 
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Isaac: Venus Adept

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N3ON

Gone Exploring
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I've noticed that mispelling alot on the internet. That and calling Matthew Isaac is the Golden Sun equivalent of calling Link Zelda
What a shame it would be if that inexplicable yet common little misspelling hindered Isaac's placement on the ballot due to the algorithm recognizing the entries as separate characters.

Half of the characters talked about have made up names yet people get tripped up on a real one like Isaac...
 

Skyblade12

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I actually counted up the respondants and got 13,495 votes in the reddit poll.

Factoring that in, Isaac only got 9.02% of the vote.

Still, doing our calculations like that would give us a 95% statistical likelihood that Isaac scored between 8.18% and 9.86% of the total ballot.

Even if this is skewed towards the US, that's still a huge placement. One tenth of the total votes for even one region would be amazing.
 
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Billybae10K

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What a shame it would be if that inexplicable yet common little misspelling hindered Isaac's placement on the ballot due to the algorithm recognizing the entries as separate characters.

Half of the characters talked about have made up names yet people get tripped up on a real one like Isaac...
And we also have to consider that Isaac isn't known as Isaac in certain communities around the world, so he'd be listed under whatever default name was localized in that region. I'm guessing that's why there was the option to post what game a character was from in the ballot, that way even if Isaac was listed under a different name, his game would bring all those votes together.
 

Sabrewulf238

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That poll is neat but Bayonetta only got around 500 votes and 5th or 6th place so it's clearly not super accurate. If it's an indication of what the top ten may have looked like (loosely speaking) then it could be a positive sign at least.
 

Skyblade12

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That poll is neat but Bayonetta only got around 500 votes and 5th or 6th place so it's clearly not super accurate. If it's an indication of what the top ten may have looked like (loosely speaking) then it could be a positive sign at least.
Bayonetta was Top 5 in the US. This is one of the polls which had her at her highest ranking online, and it puts her within the margin of error of Snake to reach the Top 5, as the ballot apparently did. Thus, while it may not match the full ballot, it is probably decently representative of the US.
 

ThoughtfulWanderer

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I actually counted up the respondants and got 13,495 votes in the reddit poll.

Factoring that in, Isaac only got 9.02% of the vote.

Still, doing our calculations like that would give us a 95% statistical likelihood that Isaac scored between 8.18% and 9.86% of the total ballot.

Even if this is skewed towards the US, that's still a huge placement. One tenth of the total votes for even one region would be amazing.
While we can be confident that every single person voting in that poll voted on the ballot, the concern for Isaac lies in within the other 1m+ people. Are they as hardcore of fans as these voters and would know a character potentially more obscure like Isaac? Would they instead vote for characters in more well-known and relevant series like K. Rool. Shadow, or Ashley? Would many of them instead vote for curveballs with surprisingly large fanbases like Bayonetta? There's a lot that could potentially downplay Isaac's placement when you add in a larger audience.

Do keep in mind that Bayonetta may still have been behind characters that are still "realizable" but Sakurai wanted to hold them back to load this game's newcomers with heavy-hitters. The project plan for Ultimate was completed before she even released, after all. It could mean that if online polls are accurate, K. Rool and Isaac were likely being saved for this game.
 

KirbyWorshipper2465

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This reddit poll came up again. Interestingly enough, if these were all unique responses, it's one of the largest polls taken, over 10k respondents.
I don't know about you guys, but I won't put much stock into a poll that has Dixie get less votes than the Reckless WiiMote Safety Man. Although I admit that B-K and Isaac did pretty well on it.
 

Sabrewulf238

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Bayonetta was Top 5 in the US. This is one of the polls which had her at her highest ranking online, and it puts her within the margin of error of Snake to reach the Top 5, as the ballot apparently did. Thus, while it may not match the full ballot, it is probably decently representative of the US.
If true I find that interesting because I always felt Isaac might perform better in Europe due to Golden Suns popularity in certain European countries. (It was really popular in France and Spain right?)
 

Skyblade12

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I don't know about you guys, but I won't put much stock into a poll that has Dixie get less votes than the Reckless WiiMote Safety Man. Although I admit that B-K and Isaac did pretty well on it.
Personally, I don’t find it that hard to believe. I think most of Dixie’s fans are DK fans in general, and wound up using their one vote for K. Rool.
 

Enchess

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If true I find that interesting because I always felt Isaac might perform better in Europe due to Golden Suns popularity in certain European countries. (It was really popular in France and Spain right?)
It makes me a little nervous people didn't vote for him because they thought he didn't have a chance.
 

Skyblade12

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It makes me a little nervous people didn't vote for him because they thought he didn't have a chance.
People probably did think he had a chance, though.

That’s the big benefit the removal of the AT had. Isaac wasn’t already in the game. He could make it in as playable!
 

Enchess

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People probably did think he had a chance, though.

That’s the big benefit the removal of the AT had. Isaac wasn’t already in the game. He could make it in as playable!
True, but I think part of how Bayonetta got so many votes was people thinking "I really want this forgotten character, but I should pick someone more recent because they have a better chance" (nothing against Bayonetta btw, just surprising result). I also think Isaac is a lot of people's second or third choice, which hurts his chances if they only cast one vote (I sorta casted two. I did K Rool for mine and talked my wife into voting Isaac cuz she didn't really have someone she wanted.)

I'm still curious who actually won ballot since Bayo was just winner of 'realizable' characters. I don't agree with a lot of people's opinion that the real top wasn't 'realizable' because they weren't a game character or they couldn't acquire the rights. I think the Goku4Smash crowd likely don't follow the game closely enough to have significant sway on ballot. I think 'realizable' just referred to development time since assets could be ported over for Bayo. Isaac and K Rool on the other hand have no HD ready models or animations.
 

Kisae

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I followed the twitter account, i can possibly try to make a Spanish message mentioning the page, so that more people can join us?
 

Isaac: Venus Adept

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I followed the twitter account, i can possibly try to make a Spanish message mentioning the page, so that more people can join us?
That would be amazing, thank you =) The more exposure we can get the better. We are trying to gather as many Golden Sun fans as possible so we can make our voices heard. The more people there is, the more noticeable the demand is to Nintendo and Camelot as well as the whole fandom
 

Skyblade12

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And people say Bayonetta didn't so well on fan polls. Granted, they're not exactly reliable as evidence.
Yeah, I am pleased that this poll, in addition to being the largest (and therefore most statistically significant) is also the one which lines up best with what we know of the actual Ballot.
 

Kisae

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That would be amazing, thank you =) The more exposure we can get the better. We are trying to gather as many Golden Sun fans as possible so we can make our voices heard. The more people there is, the more noticeable the demand is to Nintendo and Camelot as well as the whole fandom
I've made a tweet in spanish i hope it will bring more people to the cause ^^
 

Enchess

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So where exactly is "K.roolistan"? :laugh:
Maybe he's a super subtle leaker and K Rool Stan is a new persona K Rool takes on for Smash. He probably dresses like an office worker and has all his moves themed after desk job stuff.
 

KMDP

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Maybe he's a super subtle leaker and K Rool Stan is a new persona K Rool takes on for Smash. He probably dresses like an office worker and has all his moves themed after desk job stuff.
"Stan K. Rool", his newest persona.
After falling on hard times and being deposed as King of the Kremlings, K. Rool had to get an office job to make ends meet.
 
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