[SPOILER ALERT] - The Sevens Squares. - A Square-Enix general support threads.

[SSGuy]

I am still holding out believing Erdrick is a big smoke screen. Part of that is me just being hopeful for Geno, but if we end up getting Dragon Quest representation, I will be one of the first to say that it is a very deserving pick. You cannot deny that Dragon Quest is an extremely huge IP and sooner or later, it was going to get something special like this.

I just don't truly believe the mentality towards a 5ch leak is a good idea. Insiders leaning towards is a lot different than insiders hearing confirmation on.

 

[PsySmasher]

No. The Doom rumour said it would come in the first half of this year, AKA around this month and June, but the other rumour didn't say anything about a date. Granted, it did say the Persona fighter was P5U instead of P5R, which would contradict what MarkMan may be leading us to think, and that it got delayed in favour of the Granblue fighter.

Alright. Good thing I got that clarified before I posted anything else.

Anyway, as this thread’s resident skeptic, you probably know what I’m going to say. But someone’s gotta do it, so...

The possible contradiction of P5R and P5U could be detrimental to an already shaky leak, if it turns out to be true.

And considering this leak was one of the main sources of tangible evidence, that gives me even more reasons to be skeptical.

Note: I don’t consider a leaker’s word or upcoming releases to be evidence. That is speculation in my eyes unless it’s backed up by evidence that is willingly shared.

 

[Luigi The President]

It's just a theory based on a number of things.

1. Erdrick basically being known to some degree since August.

2. Multiple people mentioning that Square Enix was difficult to work with and there were a lot of hiccups and infighting.

3. Dragon Quest XI being announced for Switch back when it was known as NX in August 2016 and technically being one of the first third party games announced.

4. Dragon Quest XI still being MIA on the Switch with DQ XI S being a super vague 2019 for Japan only.

5. Erdrick by far having the most details known of any DLC character.

6. Erdrick having 4 separate IP holders and basically being an Eldrich Horror when it comes to liscensing.

These are the big talking points. My thoughts are that Erdrick was probably planned for base or at least the first DLC character but Square was Square and DQ XI S got put on the back burner repeatedly for whatever reason, missing Ultimate's launch window and putting Erdrick in a super awkward position of being just as big of a ???? to Western audiences as Marth in Melee. When the team noticed that Erdrick's timing would be comically bad, they probably hardcore slammed on the breaks, possibly freezing his development until DQ XI S at least had a more definitive date. Now the Smash team is probably in the awkward position of not knowing when to release him because Dragon Quest Builders 2 is pretty much the only DQ game coming out on a Nintendo platform anytime soon and that's as spinoffy as you can get and the West probably isn't even getting DQ XI S until 2020 at this point.

Point 5 interests me.

I know that you can't say these details. But it just interests me. Erdrick being base game planned is one of the only ways it could make sense.

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

I said this before, but for me I don't care about Dragon Quest music as much as most other RPGs like FF, Chrono Trigger and Kingdom Hearts, so I won't feel offended if they do the 2 songs garbage for Erdrick.

I'll admit, I'd be quite annoyed at Square going through hoops for DQ music, but not mustering up the royalty cash for Umetatsu so we could get more than two FFVII tracks. Tsk

 

[NoOtherPersona]

I'll admit, I'd be quite annoyed at Square going through hoops for DQ music, but not mustering up the royalty cash for Umetatsu so we could get more than two FFVII tracks. Tsk

They could have paid for the main theme of the entire series nope just two tracks from 7

 

[FLGibsonIII]

Alright. Good thing I got that clarified before I posted anything else.

Anyway, as this thread’s resident skeptic, you probably know what I’m going to say. But someone’s gotta do it, so...

The possible contradiction of P5R and P5U could be detrimental to an already shaky leak, if it turns out to be true.

And considering this leak was one of the main sources of tangible evidence, that gives me even more reasons to be skeptical.

Note: I don’t consider a leaker’s word or upcoming releases to be evidence. That is speculation in my eyes unless it’s backed up by evidence that is willingly shared.

Yeah, I understand why they cant be open books, but it would be nice to get more concrete evidence. From what I have read, the leakers belief in eldrick comes from hearing the name a lot and speculation. Yeah, they have a decent track record, but that alone is hard for me to accept a character is a lock. If I had to bet I would definitely say eldrick, but i would prefer not to bet on it at all.

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

obligatory fanfic-crossover,

What's that?

 

[Idon]

What's that?

The Persona Q series.

 

[PsySmasher]

It's already begun man.

Like, we've already got the obligatory fanfic-crossover, dancing game, and mediocre anime.

Not to mention all of the other crossovers like Granblue Fantasy and now Smash.

 

[Nemuresu]

Alright. Good thing I got that clarified before I posted anything else.

Anyway, as this thread’s resident skeptic, you probably know what I’m going to say. But someone’s gotta do it, so...

The possible contradiction of P5R and P5U could be detrimental to an already shaky leak, if it turns out to be true.

And considering this leak was one of the main sources of tangible evidence, that gives me even more reasons to be skeptical.

Note: I don’t consider a leaker’s word or upcoming releases to be evidence. That is speculation in my eyes unless it’s backed up by evidence that is willingly shared.

Well, may need to throw some cents into this, it's not like this kind of debates go anywhere anyways.
If there's any experience I've had with fighting games and leaks, is that most of them are going to be comprised text. Injustice 2? Mostly text with a bunch of Harley pictures from the mobile game. MvCI? Text and a bunch of photos with .zip names. FighterZ? Text and later on a datamine. This game? More text, a mess-up on the YouTube channel and a Ken picture. Soul Calibur 6? Even more text with a music leak later on.
Not seeing any pictures or footage now isn't a good reason to suddenly say everything's speculation. If a leaker with some kind of track record says they're speculating, I'm pretty sure they'd mean it, even if it's sometimes not as blatant as it should be, like when people thought Vergeben was wrong about Castlevania Requiem until re-reading it and realizing he was just speculating on that Switch part.
Would P5R being a fighter debunk the 5chan leak? Yes, but we won't have an answer for that until March, at the very least. Would it also debunk all the other stuff leading to Erdrick (PolarPanda, Xenother, Vergeben and specially Tansut)? Doubt so, a lot. In order to completely debunk that is for Erdrick to just not happen. At least, that's how I see things.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

They could have paid for the main theme of the entire series nope just two tracks from 7

Well, that's what happens when Square doesn't even own those tracks. The composer who does is very pricey to work with. Square alone has trouble getting music into their own FF games. Sakurai and Nintendo have a budget. They can't even get a package deal either, and there's a fair chance that SE's stuff they own has money distributed among their own employees(that is, paying them fairly, unlike most companies), which means they're effectively pricier to work with.

Music isn't the issue here. At least not, not with SE.

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

It's just a theory based on a number of things.

1. Erdrick basically being known to some degree since August.

2. Multiple people mentioning that Square Enix was difficult to work with and there were a lot of hiccups and infighting.

3. Dragon Quest XI being announced for Switch back when it was known as NX in August 2016 and technically being one of the first third party games announced.

4. Dragon Quest XI still being MIA on the Switch with DQ XI S being a super vague 2019 for Japan only.

5. Erdrick by far having the most details known of any DLC character.

6. Erdrick having 4 separate IP holders and basically being an Eldrich Horror when it comes to liscensing.

These are the big talking points. My thoughts are that Erdrick was probably planned for base or at least the first DLC character but Square was Square and DQ XI S got put on the back burner repeatedly for whatever reason, missing Ultimate's launch window and putting Erdrick in a super awkward position of being just as big of a ???? to Western audiences as Marth in Melee. When the team noticed that Erdrick's timing would be comically bad, they probably hardcore slammed on the breaks, possibly freezing his development until DQ XI S at least had a more definitive date. Now the Smash team is probably in the awkward position of not knowing when to release him because Dragon Quest Builders 2 is pretty much the only DQ game coming out on a Nintendo platform anytime soon and that's as spinoffy as you can get and the West probably isn't even getting DQ XI S until 2020 at this point.

The thing is the timing on Erdrick now is just awkward, we've known for months about a Square was going to be coming. DLC for Erdrick just seems meh to people and I get it and totally understand because DQ just isn't that popular over here in the West. Third party characters for the most part are hype enducing characters and I'm not going to lie, the reaction for Erdrick would just be lukewarm at best, AND this is coming from a Dragon Quest fan. It DOES NOT help that they revealed Joker first and his reveal was hype through the roof, and this is who we could be getting after him. Square really is in an awkward position with this character, and they've been working on him for a long time already, so it's too late change the character in this kind of rushed development cycle.

I've been predicting that our next character won't be until E3, but, I can't see him being an E3 reveal, he literally has to be a general Nintendo direct reveal along side with Dragon Quest Builders 2 probably, (which is a game I'm excited for BTW) it does Minecraft better than Minecraft.

I feel if it's Erdrick it's going to be a wait and see deal at this point. If he is E3, you basically have to announce him along with someone else that would make him more interesting.

 

[PsySmasher]

Well, may need to throw some cents into this, it's not like this kind of debates go anywhere anyways.
If there's any experience I've had with fighting games and leaks, is that most of them are going to be comprised text. Injustice 2? Mostly text with a bunch of Harley pictures from the mobile game. MvCI? Text and a bunch of photos with .zip names. FighterZ? Text and later on a datamine. This game? More text, a mess-up on the YouTube channel and a Ken picture. Soul Calibur 6? Even more text with a music leak later on.
Not seeing any pictures or footage now isn't a good reason to suddenly say everything's speculation. If a leaker with some kind of track record says they're speculating, I'm pretty sure they'd mean it, even if it's sometimes not as blatant as it should be, like when people thought Vergeben was wrong about Castlevania Requiem until re-reading it and realizing he was just speculating on that Switch part.
Would P5R being a fighter debunk the 5chan leak? Yes, but we won't have an answer for that until March, at the very least. Would it also debunk all the other stuff leading to Erdrick (PolarPanda, Xenother, Vergeben and specially Tansut)? Doubt so, a lot. In order to completely debunk that is for Erdrick to just not happen. At least, that's how I see things.

First off, I NEVER said, and wasn’t trying to imply, that pictures or photographic evidence was required to prove a leak true.

With Vergeben’s track record over the course of the base roster, I took that as evidence that proved, at least to myself, that he had a good idea of what the base roster was going to be.

However, this is DLC and at this point, no leaker has given me enough evidence to believe them based on their word alone, especially since no one knew about Joker.

I do believe there’s a good chance of a Square rep showing up because Vergeben claimed it during BASE ROSTER speculation.

However, anything beyond that hasn’t swayed me to a single character.

I don’t think, at this point in time, Erdrick is any more likely or unlikely than any viable Square rep.

He does have a legitimate shot, but nothing more than that.

If a leak with convincing evidence comes around, maybe I’ll change my mind. But at this rate, an official reveal is more likely to come out before some leak convinces me.

 

[Luigi The President]

The thing is the timing on Erdrick now is just awkward, we've known for months about a Square was going to be coming. DLC for Erdrick just seems meh to people and I get it and totally understand because DQ just isn't that popular over here in the West. Third party characters for the most part are hype enducing characters and I'm not going to lie, the reaction for Erdrick would just be lukewarm at best, AND this is coming from a Dragon Quest fan. It DOES NOT help that they revealed Joker first and this is who we could be getting after him. Square really is in an awkward position with this character, and they've been working on him for a long time already, so it's too late change the character in this kind of rushed development cycle.

I've been predicting that our next character won't be until E3, but, I can't see him being an E3 reveal, he literally has to be a general Nintendo direct reveal along side with Dragon Quest Builders 2 probably, (which is a game I'm excited for BTW) it does Minecraft better than Minecraft.

I feel if it's Erdrick it's going to be a wait and see deal at this point. If he is E3, you basically have to announce him along with someone else that would make him more interesting.

I think that if they already chose Erdrick they feel he's gonna be impressive enough for something like E3.
Like why would they choose a character and then go "...ah but we gotta time it right so people don't get mad at us for such a bad choice..."
If they were so concerned with that, they wouldn't have chosen him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I think that if they already chose Erdrick they feel he's gonna be impressive enough for something like E3.
Like why would they choose a character and then go "...ah but we gotta time it right so people don't get mad at us for such a bad choice..."
If they were so concerned with that, they wouldn't have chosen him.

I disagree. Smart marketing is just as important as the in-game decision. The character can be clearly chosen for other reasons beyond ‘massive worldwide hype’, and while Nintendo hasn’t been great at marketing Smash, they clearly matched character with reveal venue perfectly with Joker, and understood that Mega Man and Ridley were E3 style reveals.

You’re a Geno fan. For most people outside the Smash fandom Geno runs the risk of being a literally who. It would be savvy of Nintendo to reveal him at a place geared towards the Smash hardcore fandom rather than the casual audience (think the difference between the August Direct and the September Direct). There’s nothing wrong with that concern existing, and it’s not really a reason to exclude the character either. Just because something requires good marketing doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea.

 

[Luigi The President]

I disagree. Smart marketing is just as important as the in-game decision. The character can be clearly chosen for other reasons beyond ‘massive worldwide hype’, and while Nintendo hasn’t been great at marketing Smash, they clearly matched character with reveal venue perfectly with Joker, and understood that Mega Man and Ridley were E3 style reveals.

You’re a Geno fan. For most people outside the Smash fandom Geno runs the risk of being a literally who. It would be savvy of Nintendo to reveal him at a place geared towards the Smash hardcore fandom rather than the casual audience (think the difference between the August Direct and the September Direct). There’s nothing wrong with that concern existing, and it’s not really a reason to exclude the character either. Just because something requires good marketing doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea.

Okay, that makes sense, actually.

 

[osby]

The Persona Q series.

I think you don't know what's a fanfiction is.

 

[Idon]

I think you don't know what's a fanfiction is.

And I don't think you know what a joke is.

 

[Luigi The President]

I think you don't know what's a fanfiction is.

As a fanfic writer I totally get what Idon's getting at
"All the Persona 3 people meet the Persona 4 people, and they go on a huge adventure together, and also there's a cutesy blonde girl and her mysterious brooding best friend with her"
Is this a real video game or is it someone inserting their two OC's to hang out with the 3/4 cast and have them go on a huge adventure together?
...well, it's a video game! And it works so well. I miss PQ.

But yeah, I totally get what Idon's getting at; it very much does seem like a big fanfiction crossover.

 

[osby]

And I don't think you know what a joke is.

Yes, that would be an accurate assumption.

As a fanfic writer I totally get what Idon's getting at
"All the Persona 3 people meet the Persona 4 people, and they go on a huge adventure together, and also there's a cutesy blonde girl and her mysterious brooding best friend with her"
Is this a real video game or is it someone inserting their two OC's to hang out with the 3/4 cast and have them go on a huge adventure together?
...well, it's a video game! And it works so well. I miss PQ.

But yeah, I totally get what Idon's getting at; it very much does seem like a big fanfiction crossover.

It's not fan-made.

 

[TheSixthSaint]

The thing that makes the most sense to me (if it is Erdrick) would be to do it in a way where they know there will be a lot of eyes on it.
The whole point of the choice, aside from pleasing and appealing to Japanese fans, is to make Dragon Quest more visible in the west.
One thing that franchise has had a god awful track record of is segregating itself from associations that would bring attention to it here.
Consider the following:
Monster Hunter: World's reveal at E3 2017. It FORCED people to pay attention to Monster Hunter for a change since it was part of Sony's E3 presentation.
And guess what Dragon Quest doesn't do? That.

Which is a big reason as to why westerners are only ignorantly aware of the basics about it (Akira Toriyama does the art, they're turn-based RPGs, and can probably recognize what a Slime is).
That kind of general basics is the same as how westerners were with Monster Hunter (you hunt monsters, the Kirin armor for chicks is hot, and you have cats who help you) until Monster Hunter: World, which gave the game a platform to be seen by people who typically would not see it.
Not to mention they put proper money and effort into actually advertising it in the west.

When it comes to Dragon Quest, the segregation of "this is such a big thing here so we don't need to do this as part of someone else's thing" is a terrible mindset that's held it back here. Square Enix controls its reveals and news in such a way that typically only Dragon Quest fans will already be paying attention to in the first place. Someone who isn't already into Dragon Quest typically isn't going to tune in to a Japanese live stream event for Dragon Quest.
How they don't realize this is beyond me.
This is without even mentioning how terrible Square Enix is at advertising (more like lack thereof) in the west when it comes to this series.

The best way to get people to pay attention to Dragon Quest overseas?
FORCE them to have to pay attention to it.
Play along well with Sony or Nintendo and get a game on a main stage/presentation.

In this case, if there is a Nintendo Direct that'll reveal Erdrick, the best way to do this is a three-pronged attack in the same Direct:
► Formally announce Dragon Quest XI S for the west (they'd already said it would've came out here with our PS4 and PC versions had it not been for Unreal Engine 4 issues, and there's even a localization botch left on a loading screen for both versions which uses Nintendo Switch button terminology). I feel like the only reason why we suspiciously didn't get it formally revealed here along with the Japanese version at Jump Festa was solely because they're being smart and actually waiting for this specific Nintendo Direct that would reveal Erdrick.
► Speaking of which, obviously announcing Erdrick as a Fighters Pass DLC character.
► End with announcing Dragon Quest: The Erdrick Trilogy (a compilation release of Dragon Quest I, II, and III) to be released worldwide for Nintendo Switch (hopefully releasing it on PS4 and PC as well for further expanse to build off the current players who played XI). And if they wanna go balls out and double down? Announce a compilation of Dragon Quest IV, V, and VI as Dragon Quest: The Zenithian Trilogy, too.

Oh, and when Dragon Quest XI S comes out...NINTENDO BETTER PUT OUT COMMERCIALS FOR IT.
I actually have faith that they will here given how Nintendo has handled third-party support in their commercials for the Switch.
If Nintendo's publishing Dragon Quest XI S, which I have little to no reason to believe they won't when you consider the history of Dragon Quest localization's publishing, then they will.
So ya know, Dragon Quest XI got literally no commercials in the west.
Yes. Despite the fact that Square Enix openly acknowledged that they have to branch out and can't count on Final Fantasy forever after the end of 2017 fiscal year, mentioning they need to focus on NieR and Dragon Quest, with the latter being something they hope to make bigger here.
NieR: Automata's unexpected success and Dragon Quest XI's releases helped them a whole lot when they were in the hole from Final Fantasy XV (which they still are, hence the moving on from that game and gutting the DLC plans).

So, if they're ACTUALLY serious about branching out and letting Dragon Quest shine due to the Smash connection/cross-promotion, they need to realize the last thing you need to do is hand it a flashlight with dead batteries while sending it out in the dark.
I have a helluvalot more faith in the Dragon Quest connection with Nintendo for breaking the series into the market in a bigger way here for a change between a character in Smash, Dragon Quest XI S being advertised properly, and the prospect of older entries being re-released.

 

[Luigi The President]

Yes, that would be an accurate assumption.



It's not fan-made.

...that's the entire point...he was comparing it to a typical fanfiction.
The joke was how much it resembled being a fanfiction despite being an actual videogame.

Notice how I said it "does SEEM like a crossover"...

 

[Koopaul]

NINTENDO BETTER PUT OUT COMMERCIALS FOR IT.

Nintendo is pretty goddamn horrible at this if it isn't Mario, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Kirby, or Donkey Kong. Any other franchise suffers from little to no advertising or promotional push. They do the most minimal effort unless it's already one of their big hitters. So don't expect Wario, F-Zero, and many more to get the same treatment that the franchises above do.

That being said, Dragon Quest is a third party, so isn't Square Enix more responsible for promoting this game? I mean, so would Nintendo, but I'm not sure who invests more money in promoting these games. I'd assume it'd be SE.

 

[TheSixthSaint]

Nintendo is pretty goddamn horrible at this if it isn't Mario, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Kirby, or Donkey Kong. Any other franchise suffers from little to no advertising or promotional push. They do the most minimal effort unless it's already one of their big hitters. So don't expect Wario, F-Zero, and many more to get the same treatment that the franchises above do.

That being said, Dragon Quest is a third party, so isn't Square Enix more responsible for promoting this game? I mean, so would Nintendo, but I'm not sure who invests more money in promoting these games. I'd assume it'd be SE.

For Switch, two examples worth noting are that Nintendo has had commercials for Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and even included Fire Emblem Warriors in a commercial back around the time that was coming out. For third-parties, they've plugged Fortnite and Octopath Traveler as part of commercials of Switch games too, for instance.
In general, Nintendo has been a lot more aggressive with advertising games on the Nintendo Switch that they view highly.
Nintendo publishes Dragon Quest games when they're on their platforms.
If there is a Dragon Quest character coming to Smash, then it would only make sense for Nintendo to have either a dedicated commercial specifically for Dragon Quest XI S, or a mix of things commercial like they've done before of game they want to sell you on that'll include it as part of it.

 

[axel_]

Just thought I'd throw my two cents in:
I've been supporting Geno for as long as I've been a Smash fan and I'm clinging on for him to be DLC, but in all honesty I'm fine with most of the rumored Square characters. This company has created some of the most beloved and recognizable characters in the world of gaming, and having more beyond just Cloud (who's already a dream come true) would be remarkable.
I'm kind of hoping that Sora is at least considered.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

My main thing about the certainity of Erdrick is that it being such a CERTAIN thing in advance of his reveal is what makes me less likely to believe it.

Square's never had a crossover fighter in any fighting game leak so definitively as Erdrick is seeming for Smash.

 

[DaxMasterix]

My main thing about the certainity of Erdrick is that it being such a CERTAIN thing in advance of his reveal is what makes me less likely to believe it.

Square's never had a crossover fighter in any fighting game leak so definitively as Erdrick is seeming for Smash.

Had DQ ever been outside of DQ?

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Had DQ ever been outside of DQ?

All Dragon Quest crossovers have been been fully in the control of Square.

But that's not the point I was trying to make.

You have 2B, Noctis, Cloud all in crossovers. None of them leaked on a massive scale.

Cloud in particular had one moment RIGHt before his reveal on ResetEra and that was it.

This is a whole bunch of people basically going ''Oh it's totally him." which is so not the Square crossover track record thus far.

 

[Fatmanonice]

All Dragon Quest crossovers have been been fully in the control of Square.

But that's not the point I was trying to make.

You have 2B, Noctis, Cloud all in crossovers. None of them leaked on a massive scale.

Cloud in particular had one moment RIGHt before his reveal on ResetEra and that was it.

This is a whole bunch of people basically going ''Oh it's totally him." which is so not the Square crossover track record thus far.

This is important to note. Cloud was leaked days before his reveal and it's also known that Nintendo deliberately showed footage to prominent YouTubers under strict NDAs to film their reactions. If Erdrick was revealed tomorrow, that means we've been sitting on this information for half a year. I've brought this up a number of times before but no character has 1. ever been leaked this early and 2. had this much information get out, especially not any third party characters. This is yet another reason why I believe Erdrick was either planned for base or the much less likely scenario that he's the most convoluted leakbait Square has ever put out. According to Vergeben and Hitagi, a ton of people have supposedly been fired for this information getting out but nothing else has happened, in fact, supposedly even more information has gotten out since (a lot of the firings happened in September/October by their accounts) making Erdrick either the worst kept secret in Smash history or the worst leakbait Square has ever put out.

 

[MajoraMan28]

This is important to note. Cloud was leaked days before his reveal and it's also known that Nintendo deliberately showed footage to prominent YouTubers under strict NDAs to film their reactions. If Erdrick was revealed tomorrow, that means we've been sitting on this information for half a year. I've brought this up a number of times before but no character has 1. ever been leaked this early and 2. had this much information get out, especially not any third party characters. This is yet another reason why I believe Erdrick was either planned for base or the much less likely scenario that he's the most convoluted leakbait Square has ever put out. According to Vergeben and Hitagi, a ton of people have supposedly been fired for this information getting out but nothing else has happened, in fact, supposedly even more information has gotten out since (a lot of the firings happened in September/October by their accounts) making Erdrick either the worst kept secret in Smash history or the worst leakbait Square has ever put out.

Maybe people were fired because one of the names on the list really was the rep, not being Erdrick, necessarily

 

[MalcolmBelmont]

While i do think Erdrick is very likely, there is always a chance it's not going to be him or we don't get a SE Rep at all. I think that should be kept in mind

 

[Fatmanonice]

Maybe people were fired because one of the names on the list really was the rep, not being Erdrick, necessarily

Except that would mean virtually everyone is wrong, including the only guy that successfully leaked Cloud. While I am suspicious for the reasons I listed, the number of credible leakers reporting on Erdrick is almost double digits now and it would be something else entirely for all of them to have bad Intel.

 

[Minik]

The only way I could see it being leaked this early realistically though, after what Sakurai said about Joker, is if Erdrick has a teaser in a direct this month. Having info on Erdrick like 4 months in advanced would seem very strange for DLC.

 

[shinhed-echi]

While i do think Erdrick is very likely, there is always a chance it's not going to be him or we don't get a SE Rep at all. I think that should be kept in mind

Sadly true. There's always a particular case of a character that ALMOST made it to a Smash game, and ultimately didn't.
So maybe I'm leaning more towards that belief. Either it's Erdrick, or it's no SE character at all. You know, given all that I've learned here. Personally, if it isn't Erdrick I hope anyone else from the list makes it in rather than no 2nd SE character.

 

[Minik]

Sadly true. There's always a particular case of a character that ALMOST made it to a Smash game, and ultimately didn't.

With how much stuff Rhythm Heaven has had in the past (Gematsu, Sneaky Spirit Smash run enemy, Unused Emblem data and now randomly being a profile pic option) I've learned that really, no amount of evidence actually matters.

 

[Ovaltine]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised with the possibility of Erdrick making it pretty far in before ultimately being scrapped, too, due to hassle. If the narrative we have is to be believed, getting him ready for Smash sounds like absolute gob-****e. I'm positive that we're still getting him myself, but the scenario of a character very nearly getting into Smash before ending up scrapped, even if already partially planned and developed, is a real possibility. Erdrick either making it or being scrapped later into development are both very plausible realities.

As I always say, keep your expectations tempered. Things look very good for Erdrick, but you never know what kinda corporate curve balls might be thrown his way.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Him being totally cut would be wild because it would basically be exactly like Gematsu having outdated info on Chrom and Chorus Kids in Smash 4. Most of the info on Erdrick is "old" with no new details coming up since probably since September. The only thing that has really changed is more credible leakers coming forward and saying "yep, my intel/sources say it's him." First it was practically just Hitagi and then more joined in as time went on especially in December with Tanooki Suit being the latest.

 

[SSGuy]

I feel like having another round of people getting fired would only all but confirm the character so they are probably just lying in their beds at this point.

Also, perhaps they already fired all of their Erdrick people after KronoXIV opened his mouth.

Just a few things to consider.

 

[Ovaltine]

First it was practically just Hitagi and then more joined in as time went on especially in December with Tanooki Suit being the latest.

I was so, so confused at first until my dumb self realized what you meant by Tanooki Suit.

I clearly need more coffee.

 

[Nazyrus]

Maybe people were fired because one of the names on the list really was the rep, not being Erdrick, necessarily

The whole reason for leakbait is to catch , well… leakers, within the teams. It doesn't matter if the none of the names are a real upcoming character or not. The whole point of leakbait is just to fire people that could put the marketing for their product at risk (or at least severly underhype it for the public in this case). This is why I don't really care about how many people are bitting on one specific name (erdrick in this case), and i will remain skeptical until solid evidence is shown, other than just "words" from these leakers agreeing with each other. Call me over skeptical (anyone, not you, lol) but I rather not fall into this trap again guys, lol, we should remember how many times we had leakers being so sure about something before (not during Verge's era, but before that) and then nothing happened. Hell,even someone like hitagi has kept backpedalling on names (during the time before the base roster was fully revealed) and that just shows that no matter how sure they are about something, one day or another, they backpedal about it. My point here is… leakbait is for firing people, and doesn't necessarily need to have one real name among the others. They could all be fake for all we care, I mean, they DO want to keep the real one in secret, so why mix it up with the fake ones at all? Just put all fake names out and fire whoever leaks one of them. If SE has been so good keeping secrets, i don't see the logic in risking by putting one real name out there in the mix. It's like a pointless gamble for them imo. Of course this is all just my stance on this situation, it is still fun to speculate all of these names anyway, since that's why we are here after all. I'm just not gonna bite on any certain name just because leakers are agreeing a lot, lol.

The only way I could see it being leaked this early realistically though, after what Sakurai said about Joker, is if Erdrick has a teaser in a direct this month. Having info on Erdrick like 4 months in advanced would seem very strange for DLC.

I mean that could happen. We get a direct almost every year in January ( I think there has been only one case where they skipped it entirely ) and it usually happens between the 10th-20th of the month. And if Joker reveal proved anything, is that they can make the season pass sell by just having animated reveals, since most of the playerbase are casuals anyway and even competitive players who are fans of the character will buy them anyways to try them out, or simply being the usual player who likes to own all of the content of their favorite game. So yeah even if we also don't have gameplay to show of the next character, I could see a reveal happening now in January direct, considering it's the typical direct that should let us look forward to stuff for the rest of the year, after all.