So Geno. Well, I love SMRPG dearly, I've stated it many times, it was basically my first RPG and still one of my all time favorite games to this day, basically my favorite SNES game alongside DKC2. I liked Geno a lot as a kid, he has a standout design and cool moves, I even dressed up as him for Halloween once. But I think that's all it ever really was, just this neat character in one of my favorite games. I never had the ravenous appetite for him that a lot of fans do. If he got in, I'd be happy for his fans and feel nostalgic for one of my favorite games, but I think that would be about it.
The only reason I would see him ever belonging in Smash is because of fan demand. Which is fine, people can support characters for whatever they want, but it irritates me when people blow up Geno's importance to be more than it is. Some supporters say he's "basically the main character of SMRPG" or try to pawn him off as some sort of mascot for the Mario RPGs in general. It's okay to accept that you just want this character because he's cool; he isn't an important character in the grand scheme of things. Just embrace that and don't try to argue that he's "Smash worthy."
Side note, comparisons to K. Rool and Banjo-Kazooie also irritate me, given that those are significant recurring characters in their own franchises.
As for Geno's chances... well, Sakurai has been aware of the Geno demand since probably at least Brawl, as he said he wanted to put Geno in there. He seems to like Geno quite fine, even throwing in the costume in Smash 4 despite a dearth of Square content otherwise. He's said that he was aware of the rabid Banjo demand even after K. Rool and Ridley got in, so I'm almost certain he knows about the current Geno fervor, even if I suspect Geno didn't perform particularly well on the ballot based on the smaller Smash 4 fandom. Now we come to the core problem of Geno: Neither Nintendo or Square own him. They both own him jointly. What does this mean?
It means that Geno's ability to appear in other video games is extremely limited. He cannot exist in a video game without both companies approving it. This means the character, from a mascot/marketability perspective, is a dead end for both companies. Banjo in Smash means he promotes, even indirectly, Microsoft's hardware and software; MS still uses Banjo in advertisements even if Rare has no interest in future games. They clearly see the character as marketable. He's also basically an unknown outside of diehard Smash circles; my mother recognized Banjo-Kazooie because it was one of my favorite childhood games and knows it by name. She would have no idea who Geno is despite playing SMRPG a ton as a kid as well. Geno is a dead end. He would be put in purely to make a subset of Smash fans happy and that's it... and probably a great cost.
Tansut, a ResetERA insider with Square contacts, said he heard Cloud was a "pricey fellow" to get into Smash. I don't think this would bode well for a character that Square will see basically no marketing growth from. It's also Nintendo's money; are they going to want to pay out of the nose for this obscure character that neither company gets anything out of besides Smash DLC? Fan demand has its limits, and I think the money/legal situation of Geno is one of those limits.
I'm also about 90% certain Spirits deconfirm. The first three Fighters Pass characters have absolutely no content in Ultimate's base game and based on rumors, DLC characters were being decided for much of 2018. I think Spirits were decided in tandem with the Pass. A selling point for each of the characters so far is the franchise they are with as well as the character; with the stages, Spirits, and other nods. What is curious is that Geno and Mallow both got Spirits and Geno got a player icon, but I see this as just a nod to whatever ballot support Geno got. I think the Geno costume is nearly guaranteed to return with Hero... and if it doesn't, then it was probably cut for one reason or another.
There's just too much to overcome for Geno. If he was a first party character it would be different, but I just don't see his situation changing anytime soon. The character is obscure outside of internet forums and has no tangible future in video games. I also really don't see any doubling up of companies on the Fighters Pass and I think Banjo is going to be the only "fan favorite" character. Geno fans are free to think and hope for whatever they want, but I don't see how they aren't setting themselves up for inevitable disappointment. I've been there, waiting months and months and months for K. Rool in Smash 4, between base game and DLC speculation. I'd consider him pretty solidly deconfirmed, and I think for future games he still has to overcome the licensing/marketing issue, as well as his fans probably aging out and moving on. At the earliest, I can't imagine Smash 6 coming out before 2023. What will the Geno fanbase look like then? Still rallying for this then-nearly 30 year old character who has no future in the industry? I can only hope the Geno costume comes with Hero so Geno supporters can have a more realistic outlook on the character.
But... you never know.