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Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

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Who's still looking at the character trailers nearly 4 months since they've gone live?


If you wanted to actually entice people with them, the smart move would have had their trailer go up only when their blog post went up.


But as they are now? The 3 character blog posts a week are literally filler, nothing more.
Competitive Smash players still look at that footage.

Literally all that would do would add to the ever growing impatience. You'll have people who only care about a handful character wait for possibly months just to see the bare minimum of how their characters might have changed.
 

DaybreakHorizon

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I'm a bit confused, you seemed absolutely certain of the legitimacy of Vergeben's information yesterday, but now you're saying that you only believe that we'll get two more characters. Does that mean you don't believe that there will also be a new SE character like he claims and that the Minecraft content he says is coming won't include a playable character? I'm a fan of your dedicated work in tracking and busting leaks, and often I'm right there with you on your positions on stuff, but in this case I'm unsure of your reasoning. To be clear, I don't mean this to be some sort of criticism, I'd just like to understand you better.

Is this how you feel that Vergeben's information and the box theory coexist? (I wrote the above response before you posted this quote, so I wanted to be sure that I also addressed this in my post to save you some time if it is the answer to my former question.)
Yes, I believe that box theory and Vergeben's speculated information fit together with Sora (or Geno or Lara Croft or SE Rep) and Steve on the back of the box. Of course, this means we get four characters instead of six. I believe six is possible, but not at all likely, and especially not as likely as blog theory makes it out to be.
 
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RC-3197

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Yes, I believe that box theory and Vergeben's speculated information fit together with Sora (or Geno or Lara Croft or SE Rep) and Steve on the back of the box. Of course, this means we get four characters instead of six. I believe six is possible, but not at all likely, which is what blog theory posits.
Why wouldn't Simon and Richter be on the back of the box too?
 
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Shroob

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Competitive Smash players still look at that footage.

Literally all that would do would add to the ever growing impatience. You'll have people who only care about a handful character wait for possibly months just to see the bare minimum of how their characters might have changed.

And as is? The character blog posts are literally useless.


Like, the ONLY one to give us anything of use was Isabelle's, and that's not even due to the video, it's due to them confirming the fishing pole's the side B.



Otherwise? Literally anyone can see that they're filler. We get nothing out of them when they cooooooould instead be showing stuff off from their 8.8 Direct backlog.



But as is? We get ONE blogpost a week around 8.8, which has been almost 2 months by now, and we're more or less still missing 2 months worth of content from it at this rate.
 

DaybreakHorizon

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Why wouldn't Simon and Richter be on the back of the box too?
Castevania isn't nearly as popular as Kingdom Hearts (or SMRPG or Tomb Raider or Dragon Quest) and Minecraft. Castlevania is prominent due to it's retro association with Nintendo, and is certainly a legendary and iconic series in it's own right (being half of the Metroidvania genre's namesake), but compared to the sheer wow factor of the former two characters Simon can't compare as much.
 
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And as is? The character blog posts are literally useless.


Like, the ONLY one to give us anything of use was Isabelle's, and that's not even due to the video, it's due to them confirming the fishing pole's the side B.



Otherwise? Literally anyone can see that they're filler. We get nothing out of them when they cooooooould instead be showing stuff off from their 8.8 Direct backlog.



But as is? We get ONE blogpost a week around 8.8, which has been almost 2 months by now, and we're more or less still missing 2 months worth of content from it at this rate.
The roster is way too big to even use the system you want. There are still going to be posts made about characters just days before the game launches but by then... who's going to care anymore. The 20 second clips are going to be just as useless then as they are now.
 

Nonno Umby

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Castevania isn't nearly as popular as Kingdom Hearts (or SMRPG or Tomb Raider or Dragon Quest) and Minecraft. Castlevania is prominent due to it's retro association with Nintendo, and is certainly a legendary and iconic series in it's own right (being half of the Metroidvania genre's namesake), but compared to the sheer wow factor of the former two characters Simon can't compare as much.
But why going just with Sora and Steve? Sonic, Metal Gear, Street Fighter and Final Fantasy are all as big if not bigger than those two, and Sonic was still highlighted alongside Mega Man and Pac Man on the back of Smash For even tho he was a veteran.
 
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RC-3197

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Castevania isn't nearly as popular as Kingdom Hearts (or SMRPG or Tomb Raider or Dragon Quest) and Minecraft. Castlevania is prominent due to it's retro association with Nintendo, and is certainly a legendary and iconic series in it's own right (being half of the Metroidvania genre's namesake), but compared to the sheer wow factor of the former two characters Simon can't compare as much.
So basically what you are telling me the characters on the back of the box are based on popularity? I'm sure the reason why this worked in brawl is because there were only two 3rd party reps to work with. Excluding Simon and Richter from the back of the box would be a slap in the face to konami who worked equally as hard as square enix or microsoft to get their character in the game. And if the square rep is Geno, I'd say that Simon & Richter are equally deserving to be on the back of the box.
 
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Shroob

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The roster is way too big to even use the system you want. There are still going to be posts made about characters just days before the game launches but by then... who's going to care anymore. The 20 second clips are going to be just as useless then as they are now.
I don't think I'd be complaining if we actually got more than 1 blogpost regarding our last Direct in a week.


But as is? If we got literally no other Directs until launch, they realistically COULD just coast on blog posts from the 8.8 Direct until the game releases more or less.


This is....kind of pathetic. It'll be 2 months since the 8.8 Direct next week, and not only are we missing basically every item and a handful of ATs/Pokemon, but the rate at which they basically use 'filler' to pad out the blog is useless.



Lowkey, I would have taken no blogposts whatsoever and just been content with Directs, music updates and the 20 second clips on the site if the blog was going to be THIS worthless.
 
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TeenGirlSquad

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The Smash Prima guides have never leaked before. I think they keep those things really secure, because it could damage relations between Prima and its clients. Also they are probably locking down any potential ESRB leaks, because it happened last time. So I'm not sure how it will leak this time, but it always does.
 

Shroob

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The Smash Prima guides have never leaked before. I think they keep those things really secure, because it could damage relations between Prima and its clients. Also they are probably locking down any potential ESRB leaks, because it happened last time. So I'm not sure how it will leak this time, but it always does.
All it takes is one asshole who knows he won't get caught to take a copy home early.

Hell, he doesn't even have to post pictures, he can disguise it as a text leak and he'll be written off as just another 4chan 'leak'.
 

DaybreakHorizon

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The Smash Prima guides have never leaked before. I think they keep those things really secure, because it could damage relations between Prima and its clients. Also they are probably locking down any potential ESRB leaks, because it happened last time. So I'm not sure how it will leak this time, but it always does.
The last two times it wasn’t literally just some text leaks.

Remember, we had Ninka/Vaanrose before we had ESRB.

Also ayyyyyy we a Smash Master now bois (and gurls, we don’t discriminate in this house)
 
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I don't think I'd be complaining if we actually got more than 1 blogpost regarding our last Direct in a week.


But as is? If we got literally no other Directs until launch, they realistically COULD just coast on blog posts from the 8.8 Direct until the game releases more or less.


This is....kind of pathetic. It'll be 2 months since the 8.8 Direct next week, and not only are we missing basically every item and a handful of ATs/Pokemon, but the rate at which they basically use 'filler' to pad out the blog is useless.



Lowkey, I would have taken no blogposts whatsoever and just been content with Directs, music updates and the 20 second clips on the site if the blog was going to be THIS worthless.
I do agree the way they're handling items and stages is dumb. In fact I'd bet they just shoved them in the blog in the last minute but I still think these character posts are done this way for a reason and that's because they are going to pull another surprise like Sonic.
 
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DaybreakHorizon

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All it takes is one ******* who knows he won't get caught to take a copy home early.

Hell, he doesn't even have to post pictures, he can disguise it as a text leak and he'll be written off as just another 4chan 'leak'.
Don’t give them any ideas. If they have pics, I’d like to see them please and thank you.
 

papagenos

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Yes, I believe that box theory and Vergeben's speculated information fit together with Sora (or Geno or Lara Croft or SE Rep) and Steve on the back of the box. Of course, this means we get four characters instead of six. I believe six is possible, but not at all likely, and especially not as likely as blog theory makes it out to be.
Yeah this is essentially what im guessing too, box theory is true BUT we are actually getting more than just two more... theres just a special reason they arent on the box. Whatever that reason may be i dont know but it could be as simple as having the box go into printing after the next set of characters revealed (ken/incineroar) while sakurai wants to save a surprise or two held off until a bit closer to release.

Something like some final third party characters such as steve?/geno/sora/banjo kazooie etc... (not all of those but maybe one or two) saved and revealed later, perhaps simply on the back of the box or not on the box at all.

it could maybe be that we get some characters like that revealed as very early dlc before launch but my gut is telling me theres more than ken/incineroar left on the base roster so im going with this idea.
 

L9999

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I don't think I'd be complaining if we actually got more than 1 blogpost regarding our last Direct in a week.


But as is? If we got literally no other Directs until launch, they realistically COULD just coast on blog posts from the 8.8 Direct until the game releases more or less.


This is....kind of pathetic. It'll be 2 months since the 8.8 Direct next week, and not only are we missing basically every item and a handful of ATs/Pokemon, but the rate at which they basically use 'filler' to pad out the blog is useless.



Lowkey, I would have taken no blogposts whatsoever and just been content with Directs, music updates and the 20 second clips on the site if the blog was going to be THIS worthless.
If you know the blog is worthless don't check it. We have been getting footage from demo tournaments for quite some time, but no, lets all look at the blog that will announce nothing and has never been relevant.
 

Shroob

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If you know the blog is worthless don't check it. We have been getting footage from demo tournaments for quite some time, but no, lets all look at the blog that will announce nothing and has never been relevant.
Call me a nostalgia ***, but the blog for Brawl and Smash4 actually had weight and merit to it, to the point that the Dojo is legit nostalgic for a lot of people.

This game's blog is a poor imitation.
 
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Enchess

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If you know the blog is worthless don't check it. We have been getting footage from demo tournaments for quite some time, but no, lets all look at the blog that will announce nothing and has never been relevant.
Yeah, the blog announces nothing and has never been relevant, unlike previous Smash blogs. So what's the point of even having it? That's their point.

Nothing wrong with pointing out that it's being run poorly this time. Ignoring things isnt really any better than offering criticism.
 

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Who's still looking at the character trailers nearly 4 months since they've gone live?


If you wanted to actually entice people with them, the smart move would have had their trailer go up only when their blog post went up.


But as they are now? The 3 character blog posts a week are literally filler, nothing more.
I'm still watching them.

I regularly just drool over everything on the site.

I'd be concerned if anyone called themselves a Smash fan and didn't do the same.
 
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Noipoi

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I'm still watching them.

I regularly just drool over everything on the site.

I'd be concerned if anyone called themselves a Sash fan and didn't do the same.
Yeah dude, anyone who doesn't watch those trailers doesn't deserve their Smash scout badges or sashes!
 
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PLATINUM7

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Yeah dude, how who doesn't watch those trailers doesn't deserve their Smash scout badges or sashes!
All I need left is to help the elderly then beat them in Smash.

For real talk, I feel an easy improvement to make the blog worth checking beyond the music would be to post a new screenshot with characters and such. Same for the items, since most of them just reuse screenshots. At least that way you get something new, PotD style alongside the huge blowouts of information.

As it is, I don't mind that we got everything in huge chunks this time. I don't really have the time to refresh a page over and over until it updates anymore. It's nicer to have something I can check at my own pace and not feel like I'm missing out. Also, it's the website. Checking updates is never going to match actually having the game and will pretty much be left alone like all the previous sites once I do have the game, aside form potential DLC of course.
 

ReeseBalaski

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I don't agree that the blog posts are worse than pics of the day. Functionally that is.

Getting posts about 3+ characters (each having their own videos), items, stages, and a new music track every week? Hell yeah.

BUT.

Since the former three things are stuff we already know about? Pretty lukewarm. The new music is pretty much all we have to look forward to every week, outside of any crazy theories we create.

So, really, the blog posts are better in theoretical practice, but for this situation where most of the stuff that's on the blog is stuff we know about already, it would seem pointless to some.
 
D

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Gonna throw my hat in the ring for something in regards to the "blog theory".

Week 1 :ultinkling::ultridley::ultdaisy:
Week 2 :ultmario::ultlink::ulticeclimbers:
Week 3 :ultcorrin::ultsnake::ultdk:
Week 4 :ultsonic::ultfalco::ultyounglink::ultpokemontrainer:
Week 5 :ultmarth::ultkirby::ultmegaman::ultpit:
Week 6 :ultpichu::ultbowserjr:
Week 7 :ultmiifighters::ultrob::ultfalcon:
Week 8 :ultjigglypuff::ultwario:
Week 9 :ultsamus::ultsimon::ultkrool:
Week 10 :ultrichter::ultchrom::ultdarksamus:
Week 11 :ultvillager::ultdarkpit::ultduckhunt:
Week 12 :ultness::ultpeach::ultwolf:
Week 13 :ultike::ultkingdedede:
Week 14 :ultbowser::ulttoonlink::ultryu:
Week 15 :ultisabelle::ultganondorf::ultpikachu:
Week 16 :ultlucina:

Notably, The main pattern is three per week.
We've had two normal weeks where we've had an extra fourth fighter, but two weeks later with only two almost as if to compensate.
Week 13 is an outlier since that was the initial week we were supposed to get Isabelle before everything got shifted around due to the earthquake.
And instead of getting Isabelle's update the same day she was revealed, it was pushed forward to the following week. Which is odd as having four that week would even out the two from the previous week as well as when she was SUPPOSED to be updated.

So what does this mean? First let's account for who's left in character number order by groups of three (or two for rest of Week 16, hypothetically.
Week 16 :ultyoshi::ultfox:
Week 17 :ultluigi::ultsheik::ultzelda:
Week 18 :ultdoc::ultmewtwo::ultroy:
Week 19 :ultgnw::ultmetaknight::ultzss:
Week 20 :ultdiddy::ultlucas::ultolimar:
Week 21 :ultlucario::ultwiifittrainer::ultrosalina:
Week 22 :ultlittlemac::ultgreninja::ultpalutena:
Week 23 :ultpacman::ultrobin:ultshulk:
Week 24 :ultcloud::ultbayonetta:

So this means assuming no newcomers are revealed beforehand, all veteran fighters will have been featured on the Blog on the week of 11/18-11/22. Leaving two whole weeks before release. So hypothetically 7 newcomers left IF those weeks also have the standard three characters (plus one for Week 24)

Add in the idea that one week will likely have four fighters instead of three to "counterbalance" the two from Week 13 (and it can't be Week 16 because Sunday's update was already not a character), and that would imply 8 newcomers instead if, again, the three character per week is still visited until release.

Although under the same pretense, Ken and Incineroar really being the last two would have them fit nicely in the "pre-earthquake" schedule and the "one week post-earthquake gets an extra fourth fighter" schedule if we assume the last two weeks go without characters at all.
And for all we know, the last week could have no characters either.
So it could be just 2, 5, or 8.

Personally, 8 plus the 9 we have so far PLUS the 7 returning playable fighters from Melee/Brawl seems a bit too much to be realistic.
58 + 24?
Even 5 more seems to be pushing it a bit, but might be more reasonable in comparison.

My personal bets?

-Incineroar
-Ken
-Steve?
-Geno
-Shadow
 
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Shroob

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Gonna throw my hat in the ring for something in regards to the "blog theory".

Week 1 :ultinkling::ultridley::ultdaisy:
Week 2 :ultmario::ultlink::ulticeclimbers:
Week 3 :ultcorrin::ultsnake::ultdk:
Week 4 :ultsonic::ultfalco::ultyounglink::ultpokemontrainer:
Week 5 :ultmarth::ultkirby::ultmegaman::ultpit:
Week 6 :ultpichu::ultbowserjr:
Week 7 :ultmiifighters::ultrob::ultfalcon:
Week 8 :ultjigglypuff::ultwario:
Week 9 :ultsamus::ultsimon::ultkrool:
Week 10 :ultrichter::ultchrom::ultdarksamus:
Week 11 :ultvillager::ultdarkpit::ultduckhunt:
Week 12 :ultness::ultpeach::ultwolf:
Week 13 :ultike::ultkingdedede:
Week 14 :ultbowser::ulttoonlink::ultryu:
Week 15 :ultisabelle::ultganondorf::ultpikachu:
Week 16 :ultlucina:

Notably, The main pattern is three per week.
We've had two normal weeks where we've had an extra fourth fighter, but two weeks later with only two almost as if to compensate.
Week 13 is an outlier since that was the initial week we were supposed to get Isabelle before everything got shifted around due to the earthquake.
And instead of getting Isabelle's update the same day she was revealed, it was pushed forward to the following week. Which is odd as having four that week would even out the two from the previous week as well as when she was SUPPOSED to be updated.

So what does this mean? First let's account for who's left in character number order by groups of three (or two for rest of Week 16, hypothetically.
Week 16 :ultyoshi::ultfox:
Weel 17 :ultluigi::ultsheik::ultzelda:
Week 18 :ultdoc::ultmewtwo::ultroy:
Week 19 :ultgnw::ultmetaknight::ultzss:
Week 20 :ultdiddy::ultlucas::ultolimar:
Week 21 :ultlucario::ultwiifittrainer::ultrosalina:
Week 22 :ultlittlemac::ultgreninja::ultpalutena:
Week 23 :ultpacman::ultrobin:ultshulk:
Week 24 :ultcloud::ultbayonetta:

So this means assuming no newcomers are revealed beforehand, all veteran fighters will have been featured on the Blog on the week of 11/18-11/22. Leaving two whole weeks before release. So hypothetically 7 newcomers left IF those weeks also have the standard three characters (plus one for Week 24)

Add in the idea that one week will likely have four fighters instead of three to "counterbalance" the two from Week 13 (and it can't be Week 16 because Sunday's update was already not a character), and that would imply 8 newcomers instead if, again, the three character per week is still visited until release.

Although under the same pretense, Ken and Incineroar really being the last two would have them fit nicely in the "pre-earthquake" schedule and the "one week post-earthquake gets an extra fourth fighter" schedule if we assume the last two weeks go without characters at all.
And for all we know, the last week could have no characters either.
So it could be just 2, 5, or 8.

Personally, 8 plus the 9 we have so far PLUS the 7 returning playable fighters from Melee/Brawl seems a bit too much to be realistic.
58 + 24?
Even 5 more seems to be pushing it a bit, but might be more reasonable in comparison.

My personal bets?

-Incineroar
-Ken
-Steve?
-Geno
-Shadow
Now this, I can get behind.
 

NonSpecificGuy

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Gonna throw my hat in the ring for something in regards to the "blog theory".

Week 1 :ultinkling::ultridley::ultdaisy:
Week 2 :ultmario::ultlink::ulticeclimbers:
Week 3 :ultcorrin::ultsnake::ultdk:
Week 4 :ultsonic::ultfalco::ultyounglink::ultpokemontrainer:
Week 5 :ultmarth::ultkirby::ultmegaman::ultpit:
Week 6 :ultpichu::ultbowserjr:
Week 7 :ultmiifighters::ultrob::ultfalcon:
Week 8 :ultjigglypuff::ultwario:
Week 9 :ultsamus::ultsimon::ultkrool:
Week 10 :ultrichter::ultchrom::ultdarksamus:
Week 11 :ultvillager::ultdarkpit::ultduckhunt:
Week 12 :ultness::ultpeach::ultwolf:
Week 13 :ultike::ultkingdedede:
Week 14 :ultbowser::ulttoonlink::ultryu:
Week 15 :ultisabelle::ultganondorf::ultpikachu:
Week 16 :ultlucina:

Notably, The main pattern is three per week.
We've had two normal weeks where we've had an extra fourth fighter, but two weeks later with only two almost as if to compensate.
Week 13 is an outlier since that was the initial week we were supposed to get Isabelle before everything got shifted around due to the earthquake.
And instead of getting Isabelle's update the same day she was revealed, it was pushed forward to the following week. Which is odd as having four that week would even out the two from the previous week as well as when she was SUPPOSED to be updated.

So what does this mean? First let's account for who's left in character number order by groups of three (or two for rest of Week 16, hypothetically.
Week 16 :ultyoshi::ultfox:
Weel 17 :ultluigi::ultsheik::ultzelda:
Week 18 :ultdoc::ultmewtwo::ultroy:
Week 19 :ultgnw::ultmetaknight::ultzss:
Week 20 :ultdiddy::ultlucas::ultolimar:
Week 21 :ultlucario::ultwiifittrainer::ultrosalina:
Week 22 :ultlittlemac::ultgreninja::ultpalutena:
Week 23 :ultpacman::ultrobin:ultshulk:
Week 24 :ultcloud::ultbayonetta:

So this means assuming no newcomers are revealed beforehand, all veteran fighters will have been featured on the Blog on the week of 11/18-11/22. Leaving two whole weeks before release. So hypothetically 7 newcomers left IF those weeks also have the standard three characters (plus one for Week 24)

Add in the idea that one week will likely have four fighters instead of three to "counterbalance" the two from Week 13 (and it can't be Week 16 because Sunday's update was already not a character), and that would imply 8 newcomers instead if, again, the three character per week is still visited until release.

Although under the same pretense, Ken and Incineroar really being the last two would have them fit nicely in the "pre-earthquake" schedule and the "one week post-earthquake gets an extra fourth fighter" schedule if we assume the last two weeks go without characters at all.
And for all we know, the last week could have no characters either.
So it could be just 2, 5, or 8.

Personally, 8 plus the 9 we have so far PLUS the 7 returning playable fighters from Melee/Brawl seems a bit too much to be realistic.
58 + 24?
Even 5 more seems to be pushing it a bit, but might be more reasonable in comparison.

My personal bets?

-Incineroar
-Ken
-Steve?
-Geno
-Shadow
Well, hot damn, this is a pretty good take.
 

Jigglymaster

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One thing I need to ask about the Box theory. With the whole Corrin thing being pushed out because of whats most likely Ken on the other side. Wouldn't that prove that there are no more echos besides him left?

Essentially I say this because even if it was a placeholder and even if more spots can be added on other places such as the back...

Wouldn't another echo fighter have also pushed the roster? What I mean is that this Box art pushes Corrin to our side as if we are to expect an echo did it. But it only does this for 1 character. If there were to be say, a Sonic echo such as Shadow. Wouldn't he have pushed the roster as well?

Again yes, spaces can always be added. But it just seems weird that the only space pushed was for Ken and no other echo, and would they really only have 1 more echo left if there were to be 6 more newcomers left? Idk. Just wanted to get your guys thoughts on this.
 

Angelglory

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I like the blog theory for one personal reason.

...My unhealthy obsession with arranging rosters. Let's say there's in fact 7 characters left. That creates a perfect 6 rows of 13 (including the random space).
...AND GOING EVEN DEEPER, if 2 of those characters are Ken + one other echo, the option to merge echoes with their originals creates 5 rows of 12 with the 6th row having 10 (including random).
 
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Shroob

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I like the blog theory for one personal reason.

...My unhealthy obsession with arranging rosters. Let's say there's in fact 7 characters left. That creates a perfect 6 rows of 13 (including the random space).
...AND GOING EVEN DEEPER, if 2 of those characters are Ken + one other echo, the option to merge echoes with their originals creates 5 rows of 12 with the 6th row having 10 (including random).
And then DLC happens.
 

Nonno Umby

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Gonna throw my hat in the ring for something in regards to the "blog theory".

Week 1 :ultinkling::ultridley::ultdaisy:
Week 2 :ultmario::ultlink::ulticeclimbers:
Week 3 :ultcorrin::ultsnake::ultdk:
Week 4 :ultsonic::ultfalco::ultyounglink::ultpokemontrainer:
Week 5 :ultmarth::ultkirby::ultmegaman::ultpit:
Week 6 :ultpichu::ultbowserjr:
Week 7 :ultmiifighters::ultrob::ultfalcon:
Week 8 :ultjigglypuff::ultwario:
Week 9 :ultsamus::ultsimon::ultkrool:
Week 10 :ultrichter::ultchrom::ultdarksamus:
Week 11 :ultvillager::ultdarkpit::ultduckhunt:
Week 12 :ultness::ultpeach::ultwolf:
Week 13 :ultike::ultkingdedede:
Week 14 :ultbowser::ulttoonlink::ultryu:
Week 15 :ultisabelle::ultganondorf::ultpikachu:
Week 16 :ultlucina:

Notably, The main pattern is three per week.
We've had two normal weeks where we've had an extra fourth fighter, but two weeks later with only two almost as if to compensate.
Week 13 is an outlier since that was the initial week we were supposed to get Isabelle before everything got shifted around due to the earthquake.
And instead of getting Isabelle's update the same day she was revealed, it was pushed forward to the following week. Which is odd as having four that week would even out the two from the previous week as well as when she was SUPPOSED to be updated.

So what does this mean? First let's account for who's left in character number order by groups of three (or two for rest of Week 16, hypothetically.
Week 16 :ultyoshi::ultfox:
Weel 17 :ultluigi::ultsheik::ultzelda:
Week 18 :ultdoc::ultmewtwo::ultroy:
Week 19 :ultgnw::ultmetaknight::ultzss:
Week 20 :ultdiddy::ultlucas::ultolimar:
Week 21 :ultlucario::ultwiifittrainer::ultrosalina:
Week 22 :ultlittlemac::ultgreninja::ultpalutena:
Week 23 :ultpacman::ultrobin:ultshulk:
Week 24 :ultcloud::ultbayonetta:

So this means assuming no newcomers are revealed beforehand, all veteran fighters will have been featured on the Blog on the week of 11/18-11/22. Leaving two whole weeks before release. So hypothetically 7 newcomers left IF those weeks also have the standard three characters (plus one for Week 24)

Add in the idea that one week will likely have four fighters instead of three to "counterbalance" the two from Week 13 (and it can't be Week 16 because Sunday's update was already not a character), and that would imply 8 newcomers instead if, again, the three character per week is still visited until release.

Although under the same pretense, Ken and Incineroar really being the last two would have them fit nicely in the "pre-earthquake" schedule and the "one week post-earthquake gets an extra fourth fighter" schedule if we assume the last two weeks go without characters at all.
And for all we know, the last week could have no characters either.
So it could be just 2, 5, or 8.

Personally, 8 plus the 9 we have so far PLUS the 7 returning playable fighters from Melee/Brawl seems a bit too much to be realistic.
58 + 24?
Even 5 more seems to be pushing it a bit, but might be more reasonable in comparison.

My personal bets?

-Incineroar
-Ken
-Steve?
-Geno
-Shadow
Great job with this analysis, but I wouldn't say that 8 more + 9 we already have is too unrealistic, mostly because most of those will probably be echo fighters.
Remember than during Smash For, when the time was extremeky low, they managed to add 3 (Lucina, Dark Pit and Dr. Mario who as since them been Luigified), with a 4th one, Alph, being worked one as proved by the Rock Pikmin data before being scrapped. If of those 8 remaining 4 are echoes, the actual newcomers would be 9 in total, which would allign to Sakurai's "do not expect too many new challengers". With the fact that they lack an actual number on the site, and that they can be stacked on the CSS it's quite clear that they aren't seen as actual new fighters, but more of a bonus in order to add more new faces (and amiibo to sell), because seeing just 9 actual new characters would be underwhelming to some (and unllike previous games you can actually see them immediately since the CSS is ordered by fighter debut).
Also the buggest thing going for echies is that, if they are created as Lucina and Dark Pit were in Smash For, they not only don't require resources for their moveset, but they also don't impact the balacing. Lucina and Dark Pit were balanced just by making them "on pair" with their original, and even when patchs arrived they simply put all the changes to Marth to Lucina too. They could litterally make an echo for every single fighter and it wouldn't change the balacing, which I belive is the biggest reason why they didn't add that many newcomers in the first place rather than simple time managment.

With that said that would mean 7 cut veterans + 9 actual newcomers = 16 new characters, which is even less of what Brawl and Smash For brought.
 

papagenos

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I like the blog theory for one personal reason.

...My unhealthy obsession with arranging rosters. Let's say there's in fact 7 characters left. That creates a perfect 6 rows of 13 (including the random space).
...AND GOING EVEN DEEPER, if 2 of those characters are Ken + one other echo, the option to merge echoes with their originals creates 5 rows of 12 with the 6th row having 10 (including random).
ken + one other echo working out nicely adds a bit more weight to shadows chances.
 

Imadethistoseealeak

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One thing I need to ask about the Box theory. With the whole Corrin thing being pushed out because of whats most likely Ken on the other side. Wouldn't that prove that there are no more echos besides him left?

Essentially I say this because even if it was a placeholder and even if more spots can be added on other places such as the back...

Wouldn't another echo fighter have also pushed the roster? What I mean is that this Box art pushes Corrin to our side as if we are to expect an echo did it. But it only does this for 1 character. If there were to be say, a Sonic echo such as Shadow. Wouldn't he have pushed the roster as well?

Again yes, spaces can always be added. But it just seems weird that the only space pushed was for Ken and no other echo, and would they really only have 1 more echo left if there were to be 6 more newcomers left? Idk. Just wanted to get your guys thoughts on this.
Yup that's exactly the idea behind the box theory, 1 more echo, 1 more newcomer, that's it.

It makes it pretty much incompatible with any other leak or rumor which is why most people don't like it.
 

Chrono.

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One thing I need to ask about the Box theory. With the whole Corrin thing being pushed out because of whats most likely Ken on the other side. Wouldn't that prove that there are no more echos besides him left?

Essentially I say this because even if it was a placeholder and even if more spots can be added on other places such as the back...

Wouldn't another echo fighter have also pushed the roster? What I mean is that this Box art pushes Corrin to our side as if we are to expect an echo did it. But it only does this for 1 character. If there were to be say, a Sonic echo such as Shadow. Wouldn't he have pushed the roster as well?

Again yes, spaces can always be added. But it just seems weird that the only space pushed was for Ken and no other echo, and would they really only have 1 more echo left if there were to be 6 more newcomers left? Idk. Just wanted to get your guys thoughts on this.
Yeah, if you take the box as 100% fact then it hard deconfirms Shadow.
 

Nonno Umby

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One thing I need to ask about the Box theory. With the whole Corrin thing being pushed out because of whats most likely Ken on the other side. Wouldn't that prove that there are no more echos besides him left?

Essentially I say this because even if it was a placeholder and even if more spots can be added on other places such as the back...

Wouldn't another echo fighter have also pushed the roster? What I mean is that this Box art pushes Corrin to our side as if we are to expect an echo did it. But it only does this for 1 character. If there were to be say, a Sonic echo such as Shadow. Wouldn't he have pushed the roster as well?

Again yes, spaces can always be added. But it just seems weird that the only space pushed was for Ken and no other echo, and would they really only have 1 more echo left if there were to be 6 more newcomers left? Idk. Just wanted to get your guys thoughts on this.
Another reason why I don't buy this theory.
If there really was, let's say, a Dr. Luigi echo for Luigi, would they have left a empty space next to Luigi in a placeholder that, mind you, was always meant to be released to the pubblic?
I think that the "missing spot" for Ken is mostly a coincidence due to the fact that the graphic designer didn't wanted to make for this placeholder a side completely filled and the other with 3 empty spaces since he couldn't know which side would be used for the image, so he balanced them. I would bet that the missing spot on the other side isn't even next to Ryu, but to Cloud.
 

Volt-Ikazuchi

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Nothing new, huh?
I like this blog theory. A lot.

By the way, the blog has been giving us some good stuff besides theories, have you seen the music section? That Snake Eater remix is hype!
 

NextChannelGames

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Found a great leak!

It’s my Birthday! I know this isn’t part of this form topic but at least we can relax from all this Box Theory at the moment.
 
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