Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Hydrualic Hydra]

I'm torn between Ken and Incineroar being shown together (flaming fighters), or Ken and Shadow being shown together (Guest Echoes- kinda deserving of more fanfare than the others). Maybe something in line with Richter, like a shortened CGI trailer.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Imagine everyone's shock when Shadow is revealed alongside Tails and Ken is revealed alongside Chun Li.

 

[Chrono.]

I'm only thinking there's 5-7 characters left on a raw gut feeling. I doubt that if people can know so much about a Square Enix rep and possibly Steve that they're too far into development to be DLC and are just being kept especially well under wraps. And honestly, no matter what theory comes around, I'll defend to my dying breath that Shadow is in this game. I'm not even that much of a Sonic fan (only Sonic game I genuinely love is SA2B), but for Shadow's AT to be missing, and seemingly replaced, and for Castlevania and Street Fighter to get Echoes, but not the arguably most important 3rd party on the roster when there's a perfect choice right there, just feels way too suspect to me

I mean, maybe they just... cut him? Maybe they thought he was expendable and that's all?

I think Shadow will be in but, idk. I'm starting to believe he's gonna be a DLC front runner or he just got replaced and that's it.

I still stand by InKeniroar being the perfect reveal trailer for both.


Hell, call it something corny like Pokemon Masters or Pok-Ken.

It kinda writes itself.

Ryu and Pika Libre are fighting in the Boxing Ring stage, one kicks the other's **** in and comes one of their partners for their save. Which, obviously, would be Incineroar for Pika and Ken for Ryu, trailer plays for one of them. Second half of the trailer starts and the other one shows up, play the trailer for them and bam.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Imagine everyone's shock when Shadow is revealed alongside Tails and Ken is revealed alongside Chun Li.

That would no doubt blow people's minds away for sure and quite a surprise.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I'm torn between Ken and Incineroar being shown together (flaming fighters), or Ken and Shadow being shown together (Guest Echoes- kinda deserving of more fanfare than the others). Maybe something in line with Richter, like a shortened CGI trailer.

I feel like an in-game trailer, like they did for Roy or Sonic in Sm4sh, would be really fitting for third party echoes.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

Imagine everyone's shock when Shadow is revealed alongside Tails and Ken is revealed alongside Chun Li.

Now THIS is a Big Brain post. Where the hell is a love react when you need one?

 

[alemerltoucanet]

Imagine everyone's shock when Shadow is revealed alongside Tails and Ken is revealed alongside Chun Li.

That Sonic part is the dream.

 

[Chrono.]

Imagine everyone's shock when Shadow is revealed alongside Tails and Ken is revealed alongside Chun Li.

That pretty much would be the best timeline.

I honestly believe that if Shadow is held back then Tails is probably a likely bet for a dual package, but that's just a theory.

 

[papagenos]

People tend to forget box theories BEST evidence is the fact its a pattern that requires Ken.

It has a single missing piece to a pattern that fits with one of our most likely leaked characters, therefore it appears as though it was made with unrevealed characters in mind.

I dont want it to be true, I hope if it is true there is room for some error (such as the back of the box OR a single surprise character held off for reveal slightly before the games realease that wont appear on the box or something), but the truth is it gained a lot of credibility for skipping over an echo fighter right where ken fits. theres no denying that is highly suspicious and indicative that the box was made with the knowledge of unrevealed fighters.

blog theory while it works for now, just seems like it probably will change at some point. I cant imagine a scenario where we continue this amount of fighter reveals right up to launch and several newcomers happen through out November. much more likely sakurai will reveal all the fighters a month or so before release as he's said he plans to tell us all of them before the game is out. this gives plenty of time to print posters/boxes etc... with all the newcomers on them and hype the game with the "everyone is here" theme. MAYBE we'll get a single surprise character held until close to launch or something but i highly doubt we will get several through out November leading right up to release.

i'd love to be wrong here but blog theory doesnt have anything close to the "missing Ken" piece of box theory going for it.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

I say the Robin/Lucina reveal would be perfect honestly. He should also be paired with Incineroar since both are involved around fighting. To make it more thematic they could have their reveals on the Boxing Ring stage with Little Mac being the next victim.

I’ve thought about that but I’m not so sure. While it thematically works perfectly, I don’t know if they want to have two completely unrelated characters share the spotlight, with the possibility that one reveal will overshadow the other. Duo reveals in the past have been both from the same franchise. It could happen, I just think Sakurai would really have to sell the idea to both The Pokémon company and Capcom.

Imagine everyone's shock when Shadow is revealed alongside Tails and Ken is revealed alongside Chun Li.

Man that would be the best, I actually hope we can get more than one unique characters per 3rd party franchises.

 

[Chrono.]

Tbh I'd be a bit sad if Mega Man doesn't get an echo or newcomer down the line at some point.

Though I guess MGS is no different (PAC-MAN on the other hand...)

 

[NextChannelGames]

People tend to forget box theories BEST evidence is the fact its a pattern that requires Ken.

It has a single missing piece to a pattern that fits with one of our most likely leaked characters, therefore it appears as though it was made with unrevealed characters in mind.

I dont want it to be true, I hope if it is true there is room for some error (such as the back of the box OR a single surprise character held off for reveal slightly before the games realease that wont appear on the box or something), but the truth is it gained a lot of credibility for skipping over an echo fighter right where ken fits. theres no denying that is highly suspicious and indicative that the box was made with the knowledge of unrevealed fighters.

blog theory while it works for now, just seems like it probably will change at some point. I cant imagine a scenario where we continue this amount of fighter reveals right up to launch and several newcomers happen through out November. much more likely sakurai will reveal all the fighters a month or so before release as he's said he plans to tell us all of them before the game is out. this gives plenty of time to print posters/boxes etc... with all the newcomers on them and hype the game with the "everyone is here" theme. MAYBE we'll get a single surprise character held until close to launch or something but i highly doubt we will get several through out November leading right up to release.

i'd love to be wrong here but blog theory doesnt have anything close to the "missing Ken" piece of box theory going for it.

You think we might get a character reveal at the game awards since it’s like a day before SSBU?

 

[PolarPanda]

This. People are far more willing to accept leaks or theories that support more characters in the game, simply because that’s what they want. It’s flawed and no one will admit that that’s why they accept the Blog theory (which is based on circumstantial evidence) over the Box or Music theory. Hypocrisy at it's finest if you ask me.

The idea that we're getting 6 more fighters is practically a pipe dream.

I'd rather put faith in the "worst" timeline because then I won't be disappointed when it comes true.

Just don't throw a temper tantrum when Blog Theory proves to be incorrect and we only get two more characters, because we'll have enough people doing that already.

Ah yes, resort to the theory with less conclusive evidence and reasoning. Really? I get the whole expecting the worst mindset, but I think it's weird to automatically assume the incredibly unlikely scenario would happen more than the very realistic and evidence-based scenario. Neutrality is more reasonable IMO.

 

[Shadowwolflink]

https://twitter.com/Marc_IRL/status/1044151546110447616
this tweet from a Minecraft Dev also seems to suggest that there's one specific thing they at Mojang can't talk about before Minecon

could be playstation crossplay, but i don't see that being the huge reveal after everything we've been leaked lines up with that not being the case.

"Playstation crossplay"
Ha.
Hahaha
HAHAHA

That's not happening.

 

[LetterO]

You think we might get a character reveal at the game awards since it’s like a day before SSBU?

Not the person in question, but I really expect a Smash DLC reveal at The Game Awards.

 

[T3Z3R1]

https://twitter.com/Marc_IRL/status/1044151546110447616
this tweet from a Minecraft Dev also seems to suggest that there's one specific thing they at Mojang can't talk about before Minecon
could be playstation crossplay, but i don't see that being the huge reveal after everything we've been leaked lines up with that not being the case.

Just in case, hold your hype back until we see the reveal at minecon earth BUT even we know that nintendo don't reveal fighters at other events (beside that nintendo did announce smash direct at EVO last summer.) So. remember if you see like this thing again, don't think about smash related reveal, if you do, you'll be in for disappointing moment.

edit: Why am I not surprised again? some people replied to that tweet about steve for smash, sounds like they are settling themselves up for disappointment.

 

[papagenos]

You think we might get a character reveal at the game awards since it’s like a day before SSBU?

Could happen, I do expect something right before release to be announced/highlighted for some final hype before launch but who knows.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Could happen, I do expect something right before release to be announced/highlighted for some final hype before launch but who knows.

I could see us getting a DLC reveal at the Video Game Awards. Something substantial, but not too big.

Ah yes, resort to the theory with less conclusive evidence and reasoning. Really? I get the whole expecting the worst mindset, but I think it's weird to automatically assume the incredibly unlikely scenario would happen more than the very realistic and evidence-based scenario. Neutrality is more reasonable IMO.

Ay yes, resort insulting your opponent and calling them a pessimist. I love me nothing more than some good old ad hominem.

I'll say it as many times as it takes: Blog Theory is based on circumstantial evidence. It relies solely on the JSON numbers and nothing else. That's not a theory, it's a pattern. It's definitely not "very realistic and evidence-based" like you say it is. Your spreadsheet is nothing more than alternative scenarios in favor of your theory, and not against it. Your counterpoints are pretty much you saying "that won't happen because it's a set pattern" without any evidence besides the pattern itself. As someone with an actual science background who has studied research and theory and all of that, I can tell you that your "theory" is more of an observation than anything else.

In regard to box theory having "less conclusive evidence and reasoning:"

People tend to forget box theories BEST evidence is the fact its a pattern that requires Ken.

It has a single missing piece to a pattern that fits with one of our most likely leaked characters, therefore it appears as though it was made with unrevealed characters in mind.

I dont want it to be true, I hope if it is true there is room for some error (such as the back of the box OR a single surprise character held off for reveal slightly before the games realease that wont appear on the box or something), but the truth is it gained a lot of credibility for skipping over an echo fighter right where ken fits. theres no denying that is highly suspicious and indicative that the box was made with the knowledge of unrevealed fighters.

blog theory while it works for now, just seems like it probably will change at some point. I cant imagine a scenario where we continue this amount of fighter reveals right up to launch and several newcomers happen through out November. much more likely sakurai will reveal all the fighters a month or so before release as he's said he plans to tell us all of them before the game is out. this gives plenty of time to print posters/boxes etc... with all the newcomers on them and hype the game with the "everyone is here" theme. MAYBE we'll get a single surprise character held until close to launch or something but i highly doubt we will get several through out November leading right up to release.

i'd love to be wrong here but blog theory doesnt have anything close to the "missing Ken" piece of box theory going for it.

You only needed to look 3 posts above yours.

I understand you're getting a lot of upvotes on Reddit and Alax and GameXplain are covering your stuff, but don't let it get to your head.

 

[hposter]

Ay yes, resort insulting your opponent and calling them a pessimist. I love me nothing more than some good old ad hominem.

they didn't insult them at all though

 

[Shroob]

they didn't insult them at all though

They called me a pessimist, actually.

 

[hposter]

They called me a pessimist, actually.

i was only looking at the quoted post, so maybe they did

 

[ZenythSmash]

Btw, why are the leaks being delted from 4chan?

because among the Bowsette spam, that's all we ever get on /v/ every single freaking day
plus leak threads just bunk down to whining over verge, loz18 and usual roster ********

i hope we get info soon to settle this nonsense already

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

they didn't insult them at all though

Ah yes, resort to the theory with less conclusive evidence and reasoning. Really? I get the whole expecting the worst mindset, but I think it's weird to automatically assume the incredibly unlikely scenario would happen more than the very realistic and evidence-based scenario. Neutrality is more reasonable IMO.

The first bolded and italicized section serves to insult both myself and others for believing box theory and tempering our expectations. The "Really?" added at the end sells the condescending tone perfectly. "I think it's weird" insults the mindset of the aforementioned group, and calling it "incredibly unlikely" shows his own negative opinions on the theory. I love how Blog theory is described as "very realistic and evidence-based," because you can clearly tell that this is meant to boost Blog theory while attacking Box theory.

Here's an idea: Don't insult your opponents in a debate. I get that I can sometimes be abrasive, but I didn't even start it this time. I just said I don't believe Blog theory, and it's dangerous because it's getting people's hopes up. That's it.

because among the Bowsette spam, that's all we ever get on /v/ every single freaking day
plus leak threads just bunk down to whining over verge, loz18 and usual roster ********

i hope we get info soon to settle this nonsense already

Wait are "leaks" actually being deleted from 4chan now?

Took them long enough.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

For the record, Marth and Roy were both from a Japan-only game series at the time of Melee's release (though Marth, as "Mars," made an appearance in an English dubbed Fire Emblem OVA released in the US in the '90s). Originally, due to their Japan-exclusivity, Marth and Roy were planned to be removed from international releases of Melee, but this decision was reversed before release. The prequel to Roy's game would later be released abroad, as would the remake of Marth's game on the DS. Lucas was from a Japan-only game at the time of his inclusion in Brawl, having been planned for Melee initially but ultimately scrapped when EarthBound 64 was cancelled. Despite Mother 3 never releasing outside of Japan, the first Mother game had been planned for release on the NES in North America, even being fully localized, but it was scrapped before release. EarthBound, the localization of Mother 2, was eventually released in North America for the SNES, however it was not released in PAL regions until it was made available on the Wii U Virtual Console in 2013. The original Mother, as EarthBound: Beginnings, later saw its first international release on the Wii U Virtual Console, as well. As of today, the only playable character to never appear in a localized game other than Smash Bros. (cameos notwithstanding) is Lucas. Also, it is worth noting that Sakurai has explicitly said that he has not made Takamaru playable due to his lack of recognition outside of Japan, implying that while international recognition was not especially important to him in the earlier days of the series, it is now something that he gives a notable amount of consideration to.

Sakurai added Lucas in Brawl under the assumption that Mother 3 was going to get localized, he later stated that if he knew Mother 3 wasn't going to be localized he wouldn't have added Lucas to Brawl's roster. So it's pretty certain Sakurai isn't going to add a Japanese-only character to the roster again, and Marth/Roy in Melee were simply a result of earlier different times.

So ultimately, trash any "leaks" with Ayumi.

 

[ZenythSmash]

Sorry about that.

lol, its no big.
do what you do.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Sakurai added Lucas in Brawl under the assumption that Mother 3 was going to get localized, he later stated that if he knew Mother 3 wasn't going to be localized he wouldn't have added Lucas to Brawl's roster. So it's pretty certain Sakurai isn't going to add a Japanese-only character to the roster again, and Marth/Roy in Melee were simply a result of earlier different times.

So ultimately, trash any "leaks" with Ayumi.

Further evidence is the fact that Takamaru was dismissed for Sm4sh because his original game never got a proper release in America.

While things like that were okay back then, Smash is a whole new entity now.

RIP Ayumi and Lip I guess.

 

[PolarPanda]

They called me a pessimist, actually.

Since when is pessimist an insult? I thought it was objectively pessimistic to expect the least beneficial result when it is the least likely scenario.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

Since when is pessimist an insult? I thought it was objectively pessimistic to expect the least beneficial result when it is the least likely scenario.

>Least likely

Woah woah there fam. I'm all about being hopeful, but as papagenos mentioned earlier, Box Theory has some legitimately good points going for it. Chillax.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Since when is pessimist an insult? I thought it was objectively pessimistic to expect the least beneficial result when it is the least likely scenario.

Take a look at the below post for how your post was insulting.

Ah yes, resort to the theory with less conclusive evidence and reasoning. Really? I get the whole expecting the worst mindset, but I think it's weird to automatically assume the incredibly unlikely scenario would happen more than the very realistic and evidence-based scenario. Neutrality is more reasonable IMO.

The first bolded and italicized section serves to insult both myself and others for believing box theory and tempering our expectations. The "Really?" added at the end sells the condescending tone perfectly. "I think it's weird" insults the mindset of the aforementioned group, and calling it "incredibly unlikely" shows his own negative opinions on the theory. I love how Blog theory is described as "very realistic and evidence-based," because you can clearly tell that this is meant to boost Blog theory while attacking Box theory.

Here's an idea: Don't insult your opponents in a debate. I get that I can sometimes be abrasive, but I didn't even start it this time. I just said I don't believe Blog theory, and it's dangerous because it's getting people's hopes up. That's it.

In regards to you calling people pessimistic, this is written text. Therefore, words are read based off of connotation. The word "pessimist" has a negative connotation. Based off of this, you calling people pessimistic casts a negative connotation, and therefore reputation, on them. Unless you state otherwise, this is how it'll read.

It also doesn't help that you're so quick to dismiss actual evidence for box theory in favor of your own theory, and that you instantly resort to calling people who don't believe your theory pessimists.

 

[ZenythSmash]

Aaaaah I just need more Medusa leaks, I'm hooked lol

That's not entirely true.

The entirety of Smash E3 was leaked before it happened.


That, and Intern-kun said he was going to reveal who the next newcomer was via the music update for 8.8, which happened.

still, we had to wait for the presentation to confirm that entirely.
just like the imgur riddle which Vergeben had neutral stance on and which Mr.Masked Man debunked (and got in trouble in the very end)

 

[Luigimon98]

Have I told you already that the box theory is crap anyway?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Have I told you already that the box theory is crap anyway?

And your evidence is...? Take your pick:

• You don't like it
• It's a mockup and isn't indicative of the final product
• Sakurai would never leave Ken and Incineroar as the last two reveals
• Blog theory
• Music theory
• Insert misc. disconnected reason here

If your argument is any of these, they've already been addressed. If it's a connect series of evidences, like box theory, I'm all ears.

 

[Luigimon98]

And your evidence is...?

Follow the blog theory and stop being an ass for defending something that can be edited anyway.

 

[ZenythSmash]

If Steve gets in and he has his question mark.

I really hope Xander sounds confused every single time he says Steve's name.

would be poetry

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Follow the blog theory and stop being an *** for defending something that can be edited anyway.

And your evidence is...? Take your pick:

• You don't like it
• It's a mockup and isn't indicative of the final product
• Sakurai would never leave Ken and Incineroar as the last two reveals
• Blog theory
• Music theory
• Insert misc. disconnected reason here

If your argument is any of these, they've already been addressed. If it's a connect series of evidences, like box theory, I'm all ears.

And we have a winner! I appreciate the insult by the way. True ad hominem at it's finest.

Call me Burb (my Sm4sh speculation homies will understand this one), but I believe that we ought to temper our expectations and at least consider the possibility of box theory. Otherwise, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[papagenos]

In regard to box theory having "less conclusive evidence and reasoning:"

You only needed to look 3 posts above yours.

I understand you're getting a lot of upvotes on Reddit and Alax and GameXplain are covering your stuff, but don't let it get to your head.

Sorry? I was just pointing out that the part of box theory that requires Ken to complete the pattern makes it have a bit more going for it than blog theory. I didnt mean to offend, I dont see how what I said has anything to do with my channel doing well or that i have an inflated ego over it? Also for the record i dont use reddit.

 

[Captain Fun]

The blog theory was around before the box theory and nobody payed it any mind until the box theory came around and people panicked.

probably just a coincidence

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Sorry? I was just pointing out that the part of box theory that requires Ken to complete the pattern makes it have a bit more going for it than blog theory. I didnt mean to offend, I dont see how what I said has anything to do with my channel doing well or that i have an inflated ego over it? Also for the record i dont use reddit.

Oh no dude I wasn't talking about you. I used you for proof of box theory, which the other dude was trying to disprove. You're fine my guy. Thanks for the great post on box theory.

The blog theory was around before the box theory and nobody payed it any mind until the box theory came around and people panicked.

probably just a coincidence

Really makes you think.

 

[Luigimon98]

My apologies if I got confrontational...but Wednesday would show something anyway.

 

[papagenos]

Oh no dude I wasn't talking about you. I used you for proof of box theory, which the other dude was trying to disprove. You're fine my guy. Thanks for the great post on box theory.

Really makes you think.
View attachment 166580

Oh alright i misunderstood then, carry on.