Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Noipoi]

Follow the blog theory and stop being an *** for defending something that can be edited anyway.

Could you get a glass of water to take with that chill pill, please?

 

[Luigimon98]

Could you get a glass of water to take with that chill pill, please?

Yes thank you...but I stand where I need to with the theory.

 

[Koopaul]

Are people assuming Ken is a unique fighter? Or an echo?

 

[Luigimon98]

Are people assuming Ken is a unique fighter? Or an echo?

Mainly an echo.

 

[Noipoi]

Yes thank you...but I stand where I need to with the theory.

And that's fine, but do me a favor and remember that at the end of the day we're on a website discussing a video game.
None of this matters. There's no need to be upset. Alright?

 

[Luigimon98]

And that's fine, but do me a favor and remember that at the end of the day we're on a website discussing a video game.
None of this matters. There's no need to be upset. Alright?

I know...he should know that as well for the other theory as well.

 

[Koopaul]

Mainly an echo.

If that's the case then why are so many people thinking Ken and Incineroar are going to be the last character revealed? Echo fighters are usually revealed quite casually. Like Daisy and Chrom were.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

If that's the case then why are so many people thinking Ken and Incineroar are going to be the last character revealed? Echo fighters are usually revealed quite casually. Like Daisy and Chrom were.

Because.

The Box Theory.

*Dramatic music*

 

[PK-remling Fire]

From what I've gathered, the box theory only allots for two more characters, presumed to be incineroar and ken

 

[Enchess]

If that's the case then why are so many people thinking Ken and Incineroar are going to be the last character revealed? Echo fighters are usually revealed quite casually. Like Daisy and Chrom were.

Beats me. Been wondering the same myself. I can totally see Ken dropped casually like Dark Samus.

Edit: misread. Box theory is why only them

 

[RC-3197]

If that's the case then why are so many people thinking Ken and Incineroar are going to be the last character revealed? Echo fighters are usually revealed quite casually. Like Daisy and Chrom were.

It's pretty simple. Ken is an echo fighter and if there were to theoretically be 2 fighters left we would only have 1 cinematic trailer to go for 2 months and 7 days. Personally I doubt this will happen.

 

[KingBroly]

Square being heavily anti-leak makes sense when you realize it took them...11 years(?) to release Final Fantasy XV from its' initial announcement.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I know...he should know that as well for the other theory as well.

I'm not upset about blog theory? I'm more upset about the stubborn insistence of those who back it solely because they want to cling to the hope of there being more than Incineroar and Ken. You know, the people who insult me when I tell them to hype responsibly. At the very least I gave reasonings for my stance other than insults.

From what I've gathered, the box theory only allots for two more characters, presumed to be incineroar and ken

Yes. Box theory also allows for prominent third party characters to possibly appear on the back of the box, similar to Sonic and Snake in Brawl.

 

[RC-3197]

I'm not upset about box theory? I'm more upset about the stubborn insistence of those who back it solely because they want to cling to the hope of there being more than Incineroar and Ken. You know, the people who insult me when I tell them to hype responsibly.

My advice for you is to not make it your goal to tell everyone to hype responsibly. If anyone overhypes it's their problem not yours my friend.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

My advice for you is to not make it your goal to tell everyone to hype responsibly. If anyone overhypes it's their problem not yours my friend.

I'd prefer we not have another meltdown like the one we had for Sm4sh. It wasn't good, and I see speculation headed in that same direction.

It's like Majora's Mask, except you can't do anything about the Moon about to hit the Earth.

 

[KingofKoopas]

I would like to propose an alternative to Box Theory. I call it Mayonaisse Theory.

How ever many characters fit on this jar of mayo is how many are going to be in ultimate.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I'd prefer we not have another meltdown like the one we had for Sm4sh. It wasn't good, and I see speculation headed in that same direction.

It's like Majora's Mask, except you can't do anything about the Moon about to hit the Earth.

Let me put it this way; not even the Mods can stop meltdowns from happening in general. We can only cleanup and try to prevent them as best we can.

We're only human.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I would like to propose an alternative to Box Theory. I call it Mayonaisse Theory.

How ever many characters fit on this jar of mayo is how many are going to be in ultimate.

At this point? I'll believe it.

Mayonnaise may not be an instrument, but it is a Smash Bros. game.

Let me put it this way; not even the Mods can stop meltdowns from happening in general. We can only cleanup and try to prevent them as best we can.

We're only human.

Well put. Maybe I was a bit vehement in my insistence in hyping responsibly, and I apologize for that. I still stand by my points though.

 

[Jchrono95]

All I know is there's nothing to lose in tempering your expectations.

 

[Z25]

Sakurai added Lucas in Brawl under the assumption that Mother 3 was going to get localized, he later stated that if he knew Mother 3 wasn't going to be localized he wouldn't have added Lucas to Brawl's roster. So it's pretty certain Sakurai isn't going to add a Japanese-only character to the roster again, and Marth/Roy in Melee were simply a result of earlier different times.

So ultimately, trash any "leaks" with Ayumi.

I wonder if Sakurai has ever see “leaks” with japan only characters and thought:

“Wait are people really open to this?

And consider changing his mind. I mean after all, Lucas was widely received and beloved. More people seemed to miss him than wolf in smash 4 before dlc. So I think taking chances with japan only characters could pay off if Sakurai makes them fun and interesting.

would be poetry
View attachment 166576

Xander: “Wait why the **** is he playable”

 

[Shroob]

Surreal that in 12 days we're down to the 2 month marker exact.

Really wonder if someone will drop something on that day almost as a milestone.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

Surreal that in 12 days we're down to the 2 month marker exact.

Really wonder if someone will drop something on that day almost as a milestone.

I'll drop a diss track on Masahiro Sakurai if the blog is still as completely useless as it's been this whole hype cycle.

I won't but it will be and that hurts.

 

[RR_Gale]

I'm not upset about blog theory? I'm more upset about the stubborn insistence of those who back it solely because they want to cling to the hope of there being more than Incineroar and Ken. You know, the people who insult me when I tell them to hype responsibly. At the very least I gave reasonings for my stance other than insults.

Yes. Box theory also allows for prominent third party characters to possibly appear on the back of the box, similar to Sonic and Snake in Brawl.

Wait... so? Box Theory is now saying there's more characters than just two? But ONLY if they're third party— and the back of the box counts? I'm just all around confused on where Box Theory is anymore. Can someone lay it out again for me? It sounds like backpedaling but I don't want to throw that word around aimlessly. I'm just confused.

 

[Luigimon98]

Wait... so? Box Theory is now saying there's more characters than just two? But ONLY if they're third party— and the back of the box counts? I'm just all around confused on where Box Theory is anymore. Can someone lay it out again for me? It sounds like backpedaling but I don't want to throw that word around aimlessly. I'm just confused.

No idea.

 

[Noipoi]

Throughout the 9 months of speculation and hype leading up to Smash Ultimate, one thing can be said with the utmost certainty.


Smash Dojo and Pic of the Day were way more useful.

 

[Shroob]

Throughout the 9 months of speculation and hype leading up to Smash Ultimate, one thing can be said with the utmost certainty.


Smash Dojo and Pic of the Day were way more useful.

No kidding.

The blog this time has been all around, pardon my french, useless.



"Hey, remember that thing we showed you a month and a half ago in a Direct? Well here it is again!"

 

[Deoxys911]

The idea that we're getting 6 more fighters is practically a pipe dream.

I'd rather put faith in the "worst" timeline because then I won't be disappointed when it comes true.

Just don't throw a temper tantrum when Blog Theory proves to be incorrect and we only get two more characters, because we'll have enough people doing that already.

I'm a bit confused, you seemed absolutely certain of the legitimacy of Vergeben's information yesterday, but now you're saying that you only believe that we'll get two more characters. Does that mean you don't believe that there will also be a new SE character like he claims and that the Minecraft content he says is coming won't include a playable character? I'm a fan of your dedicated work in tracking and busting leaks, and often I'm right there with you on your positions on stuff, but in this case I'm unsure of your reasoning. To be clear, I don't mean this to be some sort of criticism, I'd just like to understand you better.

Remember back in the Brawl days when there was totally more than 35 characters in the roster?

The funny part is, there was: the total character count was 39.

Remember back in the Smash 4 days when there was totally more characters that weren't unlocked in the ESRB leak?

The funny part is, there was: Mii Fighters were not unlocked in the footage (not to mention DLC wasn't present, of course).

Sakurai added Lucas in Brawl under the assumption that Mother 3 was going to get localized, he later stated that if he knew Mother 3 wasn't going to be localized he wouldn't have added Lucas to Brawl's roster.

I've heard several people mention this, but after spending some time digging through both Google and Source Gaming's translations I haven't been able to find any actual sources for this detail. Do you know where it comes from?

The blog theory was around before the box theory and nobody payed it any mind until the box theory came around and people panicked.

probably just a coincidence

I obviously can't speak for anyone else, but I hadn't really heard of the blog theory much before tonight, and as such I thought it was some extremely flimsy "The blog doesn't have enough characters to keep making character posts until release so we're definitely getting more newcomers!" idea. I was actively meaning to post about how I felt it was easily the weakest of the going theories until several minutes later I came upon the data that has been compiled in favor of the blog theory. While it sounds just a little too optimistic for my taste, its amount of supporting data is quite impressive and makes me much more willing to believe it than I was when I was still misinformed. That is why I am now paying it attention, personally, not because I am eager to latch onto anything that will prove the box theory to be incorrect. I may sound naïvely optimistic, but it's really coming more from a place of skepticism of all theories, whether they're optimistic or pessimistic, until I see a very compelling reason to wholly believe them, and a desire to encourage others to remain more neutral and skeptical, as well.

Yes. Box theory also allows for prominent third party characters to possibly appear on the back of the box, similar to Sonic and Snake in Brawl.

Is this how you feel that Vergeben's information and the box theory coexist? (I wrote the above response before you posted this quote, so I wanted to be sure that I also addressed this in my post to save you some time if it is the answer to my former question.)

I'll drop a diss track on Masahiro Sakurai if the blog is still as completely useless as it's been this whole hype cycle.

Useless? You clearly haven't been paying attention, it's basically a road map to El Dorado! You just have to look on the back of the Declaration in the coding! It all becomes so clear! NicCageTinfoilALIENS.jpg

 

[Noipoi]

No kidding.

The blog this time has been all around, pardon my french, useless.



"Hey, remember that thing we showed you a month and a half ago in a Direct? Well here it is again!"

The best we can hope for is a stage being confirmed (Delfino Plaza) or a little tidbit about a character we didn't know before.

 

[Waluigi is not getting in]

Man this whole “don’t expect too many characters” or “expect many more characters" is annoying as hell. Let people set their own expectations, stop trying to shove yours down everyone else's throats.

 

[Enchess]

Box theory, in it's general usage, does not allow characters on back. That would diverge from the pattern tht the theory is derived from.

Some believe a big enough character would get dedicated space on back though (I really don't buy this personally)

As a side note, the back of box theory requires whatever character it is to be the final reveal. Otherwise the box theory pattern is completely broken, which would make back of box theory pointless as it exists only to explain how additional characters could exist with box theory being true

 

[Noipoi]

Man this whole “don’t expect too many characters” or “expect many more characters" is annoying as hell. Let people set their own expectations, stop trying to shove yours down everyone else's throats.

NO!

I WILL FORCE EVERYONE TO THINK WE'RE GETTING 40 NEW CHARACTERS!

AND YOU'RE GONNA LIKE IT!

 

[Shroob]

The best we can hope for is a stage being confirmed (Delfino Plaza) or a little tidbit about a character we didn't know before.

We shouldn't have even got all the trailers day 1.

If they wanted to make the Character videos actually have importance, they should have held off on posting them all at once IMO.

 

[Luigimon98]

NO!

I WILL FORCE EVERYONE TO THINK WE'RE GETTING 40 NEW CHARACTERS!

AND YOU'RE GONNA LIKE IT!

That may be the total count of newcomers by DLC.

 

[Waluigi is not getting in]

We shouldn't have even got all the trailers day 1.

If they wanted to make the Character videos actually have importance, they should have held off on posting them all at once IMO.

Yeah let's just take away the food from the hungry beast.

 

[Noipoi]

Yeah let's just take away the food from the hungry beast.

Not really. We wouldn't know what we were missing until the first character trailer dropped, and then we would eagerly await the next character blog post to see the new video. It wouldn't be bad at all.

 

[Shroob]

Yeah let's just take away the food from the hungry beast.

Who's still looking at the character trailers nearly 4 months since they've gone live?


If you wanted to actually entice people with them, the smart move would have had their trailer go up only when their blog post went up.


But as they are now? The 3 character blog posts a week are literally filler, nothing more.

 

[Enchess]

Not really. We wouldn't know what we were missing until the first character trailer dropped, and then we would eagerly await the next character blog post to see the new video. It wouldn't be bad at all.

Exactly. If anything, it would've kept the hungry beast content since it would always be munching on something instead of having long periods waiting with no food.

 

[Deoxys911]

Box theory, in it's general usage, does not allow characters on back. That would diverge from the pattern tht the theory is derived from.

Some believe a big enough character would get dedicated space on back though (I really don't buy this personally)

I don't understand how anyone could think that every character would have a portrait on the sides except for the last one/few, who would exclusively be featured on the back. That just seems silly to me. Now I can believe the possibility that they are only including the characters that will be revealed at the time of the boxes' printing in October or November in order to prevent leaks, though that doesn't explain why their own packaging facilities would be less trusted than the likes of Prima and any other guidebook manufacturers, which would undoubtedly be printing images of all characters in a similar timeframe, giving reasonable justification to even doubt that explanation unless the final reveal(s) is truly planned for the final days before release after the point when stores would begin receiving shipments of the sealed guidebooks and the bundles.

 

[Shroob]

Speaking of Prima... I'm expecting mid-November until that leaks.


You KNOW an employee of some store's going to take a copy home ahead of time and post shaky camera images on 4chan, causing everyone to debate "IT'S REAL!" "IT'S FAKE!" until more and more copies come out.

 

[Enchess]

I don't understand how anyone could think that every character would have a portrait on the sides except for the last one/few, who would exclusively be featured on the back. That just seems silly to me. Now I can believe the possibility that they are only including the characters that will be revealed at the time of the boxes' printing in October or November in order to prevent leaks, though that doesn't explain why their own packaging facilities would be less trusted than the likes of Prima and any other guidebook manufacturers, which would undoubtedly be printing images of all characters in a similar timeframe, giving reasonable justification to even doubt that explanation unless the final reveal(s) is truly planned for the final days before release after the point when stores would begin receiving shipments of the sealed guidebooks and the bundles.

Yeah, I'm with you on this. I think it's just people realize the weirdness of the spot for Ken in the box indicates the designer does in fact know the roster, so they think the box theory is legit, but they also believe Verg's SE rep or another leak or theory, so it's one of the very few ways to square the two.

I'm sticking to my guns with Ken/Isaac are only remaining newcomers and box theory is true. Mostly cuz I've argues "no new Pokemon" so many times that even knowing I'm probably wrong I'm gonna keep to it. Speculation is just a game anyway.