Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[CosmicQuark]

I understand the Box Theory, I'm just assuming anymore popular third-parties (i.e. Steve and B-K) would be placed on the back, like Snake and Sonic on Brawl's case.

But, yeah, they could just adjust the art. hopefully they didn't physically make what's shown yet

Oh, I see what you mean, back referring to the back, rather than the back side. My bad. I will give box theorists one thing--it's an odd box.

 

[Shroob]

I think my biggest issue with "Blog theory" is the same one that people have with "Box Theory", namely "It can change."


Yeah, we've had 3 characters a week, but this isn't a static number. We've had weeks with 2 and even 4.


Like, if by some stroke of fate we only get Lucina and 1 more vet this week, that'd be a blow to 'blog theory', since the number is not static.



Until November rolls around, we just don't know what's going to happen, which is why it's safer to do one, simple thing instead of hyping yourself up:


"Wait and see."

 

[CosmicQuark]

I think my biggest issue with "Blog theory" is the same one that people have with "Box Theory", namely "It can change."


Yeah, we've had 3 characters a week, but this isn't a static number. We've had weeks with 2 and even 4.


Like, if by some stroke of fate we only get Lucina and 1 more vet this week, that'd be a blow to 'blog theory', since the number is not static.



Until November rolls around, we just don't know what's going to happen, which is why it's safer to do one, simple thing instead of hyping yourself up:


"Wait and see."

No, it's an average of 3 a week, not 3 total a week. We've had weeks with 4, we've had weeks with 2, but they average at 3 a week. The idea is when they planned out the blog dates (and they planned it out), it would make sense to evenly spread them, rather than have a consistent average that then changes abruptly near the end.

 

[PolarPanda]

I think my biggest issue with "Blog theory" is the same one that people have with "Box Theory", namely "It can change."


Yeah, we've had 3 characters a week, but this isn't a static number. We've had weeks with 2 and even 4.


Like, if by some stroke of fate we only get Lucina and 1 more vet this week, that'd be a blow to 'blog theory', since the number is not static.



Until November rolls around, we just don't know what's going to happen, which is why it's safer to do one, simple thing instead of hyping yourself up:


"Wait and see."

I already addressed that point in the document, and the .JSON indicates the post rate won't change at all. In fact, it's dramatically more probable that the post rate for the blog will stay consistent. Calc D of the old spreadsheet already accounting for if the blog nearly halted anyway. Basically, the odds of getting anything less than 4 fighters is around 10%.

And no, 2 fighters this week would not be a big blow to blog theory at all. In july, we had two weeks with 2 fighters and 2 weeks with 4 fighters, they completely cancelled out. The only other week with 2 fighters was the week of the delay. Besides that it has been completely consistent. As I said, the .JSON indicates it will stay consistent. Blog theory does not hinge on 3 fighters every single week, it's completely fluid. As the spreadsheet developed, we have accounted for multiple scenarios, but again, consistent pace of most likely as it is what the .JSON. indicates in the blog's code dump.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

I think my biggest issue with "Blog theory" is the same one that people have with "Box Theory", namely "It can change."


Yeah, we've had 3 characters a week, but this isn't a static number. We've had weeks with 2 and even 4.


Like, if by some stroke of fate we only get Lucina and 1 more vet this week, that'd be a blow to 'blog theory', since the number is not static.



Until November rolls around, we just don't know what's going to happen, which is why it's safer to do one, simple thing instead of hyping yourself up:


"Wait and see."

I think it's more that it gives us kind of a "ballpark", not an exact number. The schedule seems to account for the entire reveal cycle, meaning that there probably won't be a massive slowdown or anything. So that gives us a ballpark of 6-7, maybe 5-8. As opposed to 2-3, for example.

 

[Luigi The President]

Theories or not, there's really only like, 5 characters I can see remaining.

Incineroar, Ken (Echo), Shadow (Echo), Steve, and the SE rep...or both of 'em.

And, that's it, really, for the base roster imo.
Granted I can see a few more Echoes since we have come to conclude they likely were not all a part of the project plan or playtested by Verge's boyz.
But those are the only 5 I'm really feeling, and I'm not 100% on Shadow either.

 

[Potato_]

I think my biggest issue with "Blog theory" is the same one that people have with "Box Theory", namely "It can change."


Yeah, we've had 3 characters a week, but this isn't a static number. We've had weeks with 2 and even 4.


Like, if by some stroke of fate we only get Lucina and 1 more vet this week, that'd be a blow to 'blog theory', since the number is not static.



Until November rolls around, we just don't know what's going to happen, which is why it's safer to do one, simple thing instead of hyping yourself up:


"Wait and see."

This is basically how I feel about both theories, and basically the rest as well. There's stuff to support them but also stuff to prove them wrong, often really simple stuff as well. Due to those reasons I can't fully support any of them.

I'm just going to go into the next few announcements with no expectations at all and see what happens.

 

[Shroob]

No, it's an average of 3 a week, not 3 total a week. We've had weeks with 4, we've had weeks with 2, but they average at 3 a week. The idea is when they planned out the blog dates (and they planned it out), it would make sense to evenly spread them, rather than have a consistent average that then changes abruptly near the end.

And again, we can't say that for certainty.


We have 25 characters left to get their blog post, meaning about 7~ weeks until we run out, 8 if we get InKeniroar.


I'm not going to jump on this because no, another 6-7 characters seems ridiculous, to me at least.


3-4? Sure. 6-7? Nah man.

 

[Kirbstar24]

I honestly wanna see Steve in JUST to see how Etika would react.

I told my cousin I would buy him a switch and the game if he was announced.... Although it's probably just going to be an assist trophy.

 

[PolarPanda]

And again, we can't say that for certainty.


We have 25 characters left to get their blog post, meaning about 7~ weeks until we run out, 8 if we get InKeniroar.


I'm not going to jump on this because no, another 6-7 characters seems ridiculous, to me at least.


3-4? Sure. 6-7? Nah man.

You can't say it for certainty, but given the blog's .JSON and the fallout after the delay to keep things on perfect schedule through chaotic rescheduling of the post numbers (in the Rendered: field of the .JSON), it's indicated and estimated that scenario of calculation D is less than 10% probability.


Blog slowing down is completely unlikely. It's pure pessimism. to cling to something less likely.

Would you rather put faith in the 90% likely scenario that is actually beneficial, or the incredibly unlikely worst timeline?

 

[praline]

I told my cousin I would buy him a switch and the game if he was announced.... Although it's probably just going to be an assist trophy.

That’s all he should be really.

 

[Shroob]

You can't say it for certainty, but given the blog's .JSON and the fallout after the delay to keep things on perfect schedule through chaotic rescheduling of the post numbers (in the Rendered: field of the .JSON), it's indicated and estimated that scenario of calculation D is less than 10% probability.


Blog slowing down is completely unlikely. It's pure pessimism. to cling to something less likely.

I mean, I'm fine with being a pessimist, because if something happens that's surprising, then it makes it all the better.

Expect the worst, get surprised when something nice happens.

 

[Fatmanonice]

You know I've been wondering how willing people would be to pay for Echo Fighters given what they are (and the only semi-clones sold previously were Lucas and Roy who had large followings), but I realized Black Knight and Black Shadow could easily be held back from the base roster because while many people may not know who they are, they're the kind of characters that could probably be sold on looks and origin alone. Just a thought that came to me.

See, I think the opposite. If the idea was to have echoes that people would throw money at, I'd have potential echoes like them, Medusa, or Impa in the base roster then have wildly popular candidates that fans have kind of quietly accepted will probably be echoes like Shadow and Dixie for DLC. I don't think they'll do this though because evidence points to the fact that most people bought the whole cast even if they didn't know who everyone was. "Why is a British school principal with guns on her feet in this game? Oh well... Looks cool, I guess..." *opens wallet with a mildly annoyed sigh*

 

[CosmicQuark]

And again, we can't say that for certainty.


We have 25 characters left to get their blog post, meaning about 7~ weeks until we run out, 8 if we get InKeniroar.


I'm not going to jump on this because no, another 6-7 characters seems ridiculous, to me at least.


3-4? Sure. 6-7? Nah man.

That's not how the math works. There's 26 weeks between E3 and Ultimate's release, at an average of 3 character posts a week that's 78 characters total, including echoes. Isabelle is 70, so that leaves around 8 left. And as I said in my previous post, it's a *maximum*. Not a minimum, or the actual total. And as I said before, there's a way to spread 7 characters from now til release without it being ridiculous (Hypothetical: October Pokemon is revealed around a Pokemon Direct, a standalone announcement for a character and an echo (like Robin/Lucina), and November Direct, like August's with 2 unique characters and 2-3 echos). 3-4 characters is likely, as I've said. But 6-7 is not as ridiculous as people think.

EDIT: I should also note, nobody's saying this is for "certain". It's a theory (technically a hypothesis). And I'm also not trying to convince anybody, other than explain my view.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

If it does come down to only 3-4 then who I'd predict is.

If 3

Geno
Incineroar
Ken

If 4

Geno
Incineroar
Ken
Steve

 

[Potato_]

You can't say it for certainty, but given the blog's .JSON and the fallout after the delay to keep things on perfect schedule through chaotic rescheduling of the post numbers (in the Rendered: field of the .JSON), it's indicated and estimated that scenario of calculation D is less than 10% probability.


Blog slowing down is completely unlikely. It's pure pessimism. to cling to something less likely.

Would you rather put faith in the 90% likely scenario that is actually beneficial, or the incredibly unlikely worst timeline?

I get what you're saying, and I can also see that this theory does have validity to it, maybe even moreso than people give it credit for. Despite how unlikely it is however, the fact that there IS a chance that they could just slow down the blog is enough for me to not fully commit to the theory. It's the same for Box theory in my eyes, the fact that they could change the mockup is enough for me to not fully go on that train.

For what it's worth, I hope you're right and all this work put into analyzing the blog isn't for naught.

 

[jokermelee]

a standalone announcement for a character and an echo (like Robin/Lucina)

Minecon is quickly approaching this week, and would be a good time to announce Steve lmao

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

See, I think the opposite. If the idea was to have echoes that people would throw money at, I'd have potential echoes like them, Medusa, or Impa in the base roster then have wildly popular candidates that fans have kind of quietly accepted will probably be echoes like Shadow and Dixie for DLC. I don't think they'll do this though because evidence points to the fact that most people bought the whole cast even if they didn't know who everyone was. "Why is a British school principal with guns on her feet in this game? Oh well... Looks cool, I guess..." *opens wallet with a mildly annoyed sigh*

Good points, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't get certain Echoes done in time and decided to release them later on (maybe as freebies even if we're lucky, yeah stupid thought I know).

I should also mention I never purchased the full roster for Smash 4, don't have Roy and Mewtwo on 3DS nor Lucas on either system. I doubt I'm the only one, but probably a minority nonetheless.

 

[Momotsuki]

I think Steve getting announced at MINECON Earth 2018 is unlikely, but definitely not impossible. The idea of Steve in Smash is something I've slowly become more open to, so we'll have to see how this all plays out. I'll definitely tune in, since I do enjoy Minecraft, Smash or no Smash.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Minecon is quickly approaching this week, and would be a good time to announce Steve lmao

Nintendo rarely releases information about their games outside of official Nintendo announcements, as they like to control the information. They can't guarantee Nintendo/Smash fans will be looking at Minecon, or even watch EVO--which is why while they made an announcement of a Direct, they didn't showcase it there. Only exception has been Ubisoft's conferences, but those were Ubisoft games with Nintendo content, not Nintendo games proper. And even then, I saw many Nintendo fans watching Nintendo Directs and being confused about Star Link, as they had not watched Ubisoft's conference. So, a reveal is unlikely, but an announcement of a Direct could possibly happen (but then that would spoil the surprise).

 

[Exalt4747]

It would legitimately be better to count on Robin/Lucina part deux than for Nintendo to announce something at an event that isn't their own, that isn't E3.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I wonder, if it's not announced at the convention, if they would release a video during the same weekend or afterwards.

 

[Shroob]

All we gotta do is wait for this to change. My guess is it'll change not next week, but the week after, that'll be exactly one month since Isabelle.

 

[Shadowwolflink]

Right, I forgot. this reddit post would probably be the most suitable to explain what made blog theory stronger in the past week:
https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/9htxak/blog_theory_week_1_update/

I'll be writing a second reddit post soon after the gamexplain video drops on the theory.

"
Next, I'll go into something a bit more complicated. As you may remember, the .JSON for the blog labeled each post in chronological order by the 'Rendered:' field. For instance, the recent Ganondorf post was numbered post 144 in the .JSON. Normally, this wouldn't have been a very fun or important detail, but it actually became important to this theory after that annoying delay. On 9/6 in Japan, the thursday before the delay, post number 133 - Alolan Exeggutor was made. As you remember, there was no post on the day of the delay. On the following monday, it jumped to 142 - Bowser, then jumped back down to 138 - Toon Link. This seemed sporadic and random at first, but it actually makes complete sense. This is due to the fact that almost every single post number between 133 and 150 has been posted now, so we can see what the original schedule was! Judging by the fact that the stages posted on the same day as songs, wednesdays in Japan, we get this original schedule:



9/6 Thursday.) 133 exeggutor

9/7 Friday.) Without the delay: 135 isabelle cgi trailer (134 in US)

# of fighters this week without delay: still 2!



9/10 Monday.) 136 and 137 Isabelle blog post and memory

9/11 Tuesday.) 138 and 139 toon link blog post and memory

9/12 Wednesday.) 140 animal crossing theme + 141 summit

9/13 Thursday.) 142 Bowser

9/14 Friday.) 143 - ???



9/17 Monday.) 144 - Ganondorf.

9/18 Tuesday.) 145 Shovel knight.

9/19 Wednesday,) 146 Pikmin Theme + 147 Onett

9/20 Thursday.) 148 and 149 Ryu's memory

9/21 Friday.) 150 - Pikachu, 151 - Red and blue memory.



So why is this important? Well, it explains why isabelle's blog entry was on a different date than her CGI trailer: because she NEEDED to be on the following monday, since toon link was the day before the music post, and the only fighter before toon link was isabelle.

This also explains why the post-delay schedule looked so hectic: it was actually qutie methodical. Bowser simply replaced isabelle's role as the monday fighter, and ryu replaced bowser's role as the friday fighter.



The fact that the week of 9/7 was meant to have 2 fighters originally doesn't harm the calculation since that was already accounted for, the average is still 2.933.



Interestingly, and for the better, these past 2 weeks have been weeks with 3 fighters. I predicted this in the Discord server and flipped when I saw Pikachu at the end of the week! If you see the original schedule, you'd notice that the blog is officially on schedule again. Post number 150 was scheduled for 9/21, and it got posted on 9/21 (Japanese times)."

Any guesses on what that "143 - ???" is?

 

[Potato_]

View attachment 166562


All we gotta do is wait for this to change. My guess is it'll change not next week, but the week after, that'll be exactly one month since Isabelle.

I'm betting the announcement will be first week of October and the actual content will either be later that week or the week after.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

It would legitimately be better to count on Robin/Lucina part deux than for Nintendo to announce something at an event that isn't their own, that isn't E3.

They did announce the last Smash Direct at a EVO, so... this in itself could happen again.

But that's about all I'd expect at most. If one of the characters in a Smash Direct is going to be Steve?, announcing it(the direct) at Minecon isn't that odd of timing.

 

[Wyoming]

They did announce the last Smash Direct at a EVO, so... this in itself could happen again.

But that's about all I'd expect at most. If one of the characters in a Smash Direct is going to be Steven, announcing it(the direct) at Minecon isn't that odd of timing.

Steven? I could accept Steven Universe shattering the Smash more than the box version.

 

[I_DON'T_KNOW_YOU!]

Nintendo rarely releases information about their games outside of official Nintendo announcements, as they like to control the information. They can't guarantee Nintendo/Smash fans will be looking at Minecon, or even watch EVO--which is why while they made an announcement of a Direct, they didn't showcase it there. Only exception has been Ubisoft's conferences, but those were Ubisoft games with Nintendo content, not Nintendo games proper. And even then, I saw many Nintendo fans watching Nintendo Directs and being confused about Star Link, as they had not watched Ubisoft's conference. So, a reveal is unlikely, but an announcement of a Direct could possibly happen (but then that would spoil the surprise).

I believe Minecon would be a great place for Nintendo to advertise Smash Bros. to people who would otherwise not be exposed to it and/or not have an interest unless it had Minecraft references in it.

 

[Deleted member]

As others have said, there are many interesting theories going around right now, but the thing is they are just that: Theories. None of them have any legitimate proof outside of personal speculation, bias, and more theories and guesses.

I support the Music Theory, but that doesn't mean I believe it's 100% locked down and can't be broken. This fandom also seems to come up with a lot of fan "rules" that apparently can't be broken ever, for some reason, and then tries to apply them to theories and state "This is fact, and anyone who says otherwise is wrong". The thing is though, half of these rules aren't actual things, and none of these theories have legitimate fact to back them up. There are cool ideas, sure, but nothing that is an objective piece of evidence that helps conclude "A = B". The closest we have is the AC remix being delayed to be introduced with Isabelle fitting in line with what music theory says. What I find interesting though are the Box Theory speculators saying that helps the box. Even I kinda knee-jerked and said it did. TBH, it really doesn't. There are still plenty of franchises without a soundtrack, and that's not even taking into account new franchises. It doesn't HAVE to be just Ken and Incineroar. For all we know, there's one, two, maybe even three or more and some Echos too. The truth of the matter is: We don't know, and to try and force an opinion or theory into discussion and limit what's possible stifles discussion and doesn't make for very fun speculating IMO. Who knows if any of these theories or rumors are right?

Sure, Verge has a good track record so far, but it is entirely possible for him to get something wrong. All of these theories sound plausible, but again, it's entirely possible something happens that completely disproves one. And while the Ken leak looks real, literally ANYTHING can be faked with someone who knows what they're doing. I'm not saying that Verge is wrong, the Ken leak is wrong, or that none of these theories are right, but on the same token I'm not saying any of them are ironclad, locked down real and unbreakable, because none of them are.

TL;DR: Speculation is fun and people can believe what they want, but let's try to stay away from forcing a theory or rumor and agree to disagree on certain things.

 

[jokermelee]

They did announce the last Smash Direct at a EVO, so... this in itself could happen again.

But that's about all I'd expect at most. If one of the characters in a Smash Direct is going to be Steve?, announcing it(the direct) at Minecon isn't that odd of timing.

If they don't reveal Steve as a fighter at Minecon, but a Smash Direct instead, wouldn't that be basically revealing some of what's going to be in the direct?

 

[PolarPanda]

Any guesses on what that "143 - ???" is?

A skipped post number. There were a few post numbers in the 70s and in the 20s. They were basically jumped over and completely missing. Probably nothing important, though, since site updates are sometimes post numbers in the .JSON. The fact that the blog is back on schedule now and 143 is still missing means it was probably a non-post.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Steven? I could accept Steven Universe shattering the Smash more than the box version.

Took me a moment to fix the word. XD

But yeah, I don't think we'll get an announcement, unless it's during a Nintendo or Smash Direct. I could see a Con being a good spot to first announce a Direct, as it would get more people interested. I don't think it'll happen during Minecon even then, though. EVO has Nintendo content, so it was a great time to announce their Smash Direct. Minecon isn't the same thing, though I wouldn't be against using that time to announce a general Nintendo direct(especially if it's going to have more Minecraft content).

 

[Shroob]

The biggest thing about "Announcing it at Minecon" is that you basically soft confirm what's going to be IN the Direct, being Minecraft content.


Like, there'd be no reason to announce it there of all places otherwise unless something big Minecraft related was going to be in the Direct, PROBABLY Steve? if it'd be special enough to get announced then and there.

 

[TheCJBrine]

inb4 Nintendo is secretly in the Minecon audience / backstage and then comes up on front-stage for the reveal.

or they announce it the same day but not at Minecon.

 

[Koopaul]

If they don't reveal Steve as a fighter at Minecon, but a Smash Direct instead, wouldn't that be basically revealing some of what's going to be in the direct?

Right. That would just spoil the surprise. People will instantly know that Steve is in Smash before he is even properly revealed.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

If they don't reveal Steve as a fighter at Minecon, but a Smash Direct instead, wouldn't that be basically revealing some of what's going to be in the direct?

Yep. Which would also at least mean we're getting Minecraft content in Smash(though that's fairly expected in general). So it would hype them up.

It's a way to do it. Not necessarily the best timing, depending if you want to get the Minecraft audience specifically for the Direct.

 

[Shroob]

Yep. Which would also at least mean we're getting Minecraft content in Smash(though that's fairly expected in general). So it would hype them up.

It's a way to do it. Not necessarily the best timing, depending if you want to get the Minecraft audience specifically for the Direct.

But like, wouldn't that ruin the surprise?

 

[Dcas]

I believe Minecon would be a great place for Nintendo to advertise Smash Bros. to people who would otherwise not be exposed to it and/or not have an interest unless it had Minecraft references in it.

Yes indeed, someone here mentioned that they revealed the most "hardcore" picks first, such as ridley and k rool, leaving the most mainstream last, which makes total sense from a marketing point.

Lots of people who plays minecraft are kids who might not even know smash, announcing their favorite character for the upcoming smash in their favorite CON makes a lot of sense to me.

 

[Deoxys911]

You can't say it for certainty, but given the blog's .JSON and the fallout after the delay to keep things on perfect schedule through chaotic rescheduling of the post numbers (in the Rendered: field of the .JSON), it's indicated and estimated that scenario of calculation D is less than 10% probability.

I have to say, I am very impressed with your work. It's great to see someone apply such advanced levels of observation and calculation to something that has a clear pattern with less clear implications that people may miss! Through much less scientific means I predicted that we'd get 7-8 unique new fighters in this game right after E3 (including Inkling and Ridley) and I'm still standing by that prediction, along with a prediction of three more echo fighters, making for a total of 5-6 more characters being in the base game. I saw on one of your Reddit threads that you agreed with someone who said they expected six more characters, saying that it was a logical number that fit within your calculations. What I'm wondering is what would be the probability that we see 5-6 more new characters, no more, no less, posted to the blog in addition to the remaining veterans by approximately when the game launches?

 

[TheCJBrine]

But like, wouldn't that ruin the surprise?

depends on what they think at Minecon; they already ignore most of the older kids and even older fans by talking like everyone watching is under 7-10 idk.

but I don't see why little kids couldn't make that connection...

however, not showing the trailer and such but still giving a "hint" may make kids hyped and happy.