Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[TyrantLizardKing]

LaxChrist is just a guy who wants views for his channel from gullible kids, don’t give him the satisfaction.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Mods please delete

 

[T3Z3R1]

Yeahhh like I said earlier nobody knows diddly squat about what’s happening. This is nothing like previous Smash games, Nintendo’s got everybody in the dark.

I think that Nintendo did great job to prevent more leaks since ESRB leak incident back in time of smash 4. They want to make sure that any leaks like ERSB leak won't happen again.

 

[Pwnapplez]

What do you mean?
Debunking fake leaks are as fun as you are ever gonna get.

The whole blog vs box theory.

Just let people have their fun. That is all

It's like the bloods and the crips of the smash community.

 

[Shroob]

The whole blog vs box theory.

Just let people have their fun. That is all

It's like the bloods and the crips of the smash community.

That's why it's here in the leak speculation thread, because both theories have merit to them.

 

[LetterO]

Rule of thumb: unless it's an image leak, disregard all 4chan leaks. There has NEVER been a legit text leak in there and the reason for that is because leakers want their 15 minutes of fame which can't happen if you're Anon.

There was the 4chan leak that predicted Nintendo's e3. It predicted everyone returning, ridley and daisy and echo fighters.

 

[Pyra]

The whole blog vs box theory.

Just let people have their fun. That is all

It's like the bloods and the crips of the smash community.

What's the point of the thread if scrutinizing leaks isn't fun lmao
It's fun to me and several others.
I'd just go to the normal discussion thread if I didn't like it.

 

[Chrono.]

No one's saying the blog theory is total bunk.

Just that 8 characters vs 2 characters, one is clearly a more realistic take.

I would love for blog theory to be true though.

 

[ChronoBound]

This bears repeating (I wrote it a month ago):

It is going to be "hilarious" when the final roster is known and it is nothing like speculators or fans predicted. See what happened when Melee, Brawl, and Smash 4 all leaked. The same will probably happen with Ultimate. People will holler up and down that it is missing certain characters that are deemed "necessary" so it cannot be real, and people will look to more and more convoluted theories as to why Sakurai is pulling our leg.

Already. Who would have seen Ridley coming after Sakurai said he was "too big". Who would have seen Castlevania characters coming when everyone was talking more about the likes of Rayman, Shovel Knight, Shantae, and Kingdom Hearts over this franchise? Who could have predicted Dark Samus making it in despite the most wanted Metroid character for 17 years still having not made it in and her own time in the sun being over for a decade? Who would have predicted Chrom after Smash 4's official material outright mocked the character and Sakurai saying the character brought nothing special to the table? Who would have predicted that our Mario newcomer would be Daisy over the likes of Toad, Geno, Paper Mario, Waluigi, and Captain Toad?

Even when Simon was leaked, who saw a second Castlevania character coming?

The speculators get a lot of things right, but in the end there are many things unknown to us, and we do not understand how the selection process for one game might be different for the current one.

If I were to show the present roster to myself six months ago, I would never have believed it. Too many absurd character choices. However, in the context of Sakurai's new parameters for Ultimate, the characters make perfect sense.

This does not mean "expect out there characters", but rather step outside the expectations of the "crowd" for what we might ultimately get.

Just look now at "Geno, Isaac, and Skull Kid are the new trinity!!!1111". A few weeks ago, Skull Kid was barely a blip. Now due to being seen as "likely" he is seen as likely. Isaac had a cult following too, but the moment people looked at that Ratholos screenshot, they went all "oomgg Issic comfirmed!!!!!".

The biggest loudmouths formulate their own consensus and shout it over and over and over again, and within this maelstrom., people lose sight of their own inner wisdom or intuition. This is perhaps a statement on social media in general though.

"Absorb what is useful. Reject what is useless. Add what is essentially your own." - Bruce Lee

Notice how few now talk about Skull Kid now that the Loz train got derailed. A lot of character desires and "expectations" are drive by bandwagons and not necessarily what people actually want or expect.

That being said I fully expect Geno to be DLC, and Isaac had a decent chance as well assuming he is not hit with the Assist Trophy bat.

However, those who say its "impossible" that Sakurai only has two more characters left for the base roster have not been paying attention to history lessons. With Brawl, we closed with Olimar not Sonic. With Smash 4 we closed with Shulk not Mega Man or Pac-Man. With Smash 4 DLC we closed with Corrin and Bayonetta not Cloud.

Sakurai has already given us two warnings that there are much less newcomers this time around. In the last direct, Sakurai explicitly stated after Chrom and Dark Samus were confirmed that he only had a few more fighters left to unveil. This was before K. Rool and Isabelle were confirmed, and likely Incineroar and Ken. Four more fighters (K. Rool, Isabelle, Incineroar, and Ken) is indeed just "a few more".

I will also add this as well (also written a month ago):

As N3ON implied, we re-write the past to formulate a narrative that concurs with the zeitgeist of the present. Our hubris later becomes our rage, when what we "think" does not match "reality". Feel-ality does not always equal reality.

I have been a participant in Smash speculation since the pre-Melee days, and every single time the final reveals ends up causing massive rage and bitterness because it did not match their expectations. What makes you think Ultimate is going to be any different?

 

[Pwnapplez]

That's why it's here in the leak speculation thread, because both theories have merit to them.

They do, and I respect people who can speculate respectably.

What's the point of the thread if scrutinizing leaks isn't fun lmao
It's fun to me and several others.
I'd just go to the normal discussion thread if I didn't like it.

Scrutinizing leaks is fine, I am talking about people who are jumping down others peoples throats because they want their theory to win.

That's all

 

[Nazyrus]

Box theory having merit …
Lmao, alright see you when more than 2 characters are confirmed, we will see where that merit stays , lol. See you around when you see how wrong that box theory is .

 

[T3Z3R1]

There was the 4chan leak that predicted Nintendo's e3. It predicted everyone returning, ridley and daisy and echo fighters.

Don't forget Switch presentation leak too.

 

[Deleted member]

That's not entirely true.

The entirety of Smash E3 was leaked before it happened.


That, and Intern-kun said he was going to reveal who the next newcomer was via the music update for 8.8, which happened.

Remember when E3 was leaked the day before on 4Chan?

There was the 4chan leak that predicted Nintendo's e3. It predicted everyone returning, ridley and daisy and echo fighters.

Excuse me but what the **** and why is this the first I hear of it?

 

[Pyra]

Excuse me but what the **** and why is this the first I hear of it?

Idunno why you haven't heard of it, but iirc, even Loz knew the E3 trailer before it happened.

And yes, it was all in text.

 

[Z25]

https://boards.fireden.net/v/thread/432891281/#432891281

Obviously fake, but Elma AND Neku...don’t play with my heart like this ;-;

-forest maze stage, no Geno.

-3 3rd party characters were scrapped and a retro.

-Doubt

Remember when E3 was leaked the day before on 4Chan?

Or the switch presentation, all of sun and moon and ultra sun and moon, and let’s go Pikachu and eevee, or devil may cry, etc.
4chan gets a lot of **** right.

 

[Shroob]

Box theory having merit …
Lmao, alright see you when more than 2 characters are confirmed, we will see where that merit stays , lol. See you around when you see how wrong that box theory is .

No need to be hostile mate. Some people just don't want to build up their expectations to an absurd amount only to be disappointed in the end.

 

[Untouch]

https://twitter.com/SmashBrosJP/status/1044396064306917376

Well that ""leak"" that predicted Lucas is dead.
I mean they got the first 3 letters right, so maybe they just misread it!?

 

[monadoboy]

See you around when you see how wrong that box theory is .

Everyone wants the box theory to be wrong, so we'll all be glad if that happened. The only ones who stand to lose are the people who don't believe in the box theory and will be sorely disappointed if it turns out to be true.

 

[Shroob]

Excuse me but what the **** and why is this the first I hear of it?

These are old as dirt at this point.


The entirety of Smash at E3 was leaked on 4chan a day before probably by someone who helped set it up.


Intern-kun went rogue and is responsible for the Bloody Tears/Monster Dance leak, it wasn't an accident.

 

[PolarPanda]

Today's blog post is Lucina, so that "Lucas is tonight" thing is, of course, as we all knew, bull.

YESS, bless blog theory <3333 Yesterday was moon because of the moon holiday in Japan , and today was either lucina or robin. I can't believe I was right!

 

[Enchess]

https://boards.fireden.net/v/thread/432891281/#432891281

Obviously fake, but Elma AND Neku...don’t play with my heart like this ;-;

Why'd you have to post on here and play with my heart? 3 more Nintendo IPs repped... It's beautiful..

 

[LetterO]

https://twitter.com/SmashBrosJP/status/1044396064306917376

Well that ""leak"" that predicted Lucas is dead.
I mean they got the first 3 letters right, so maybe they just misread it!?

Leaker actually saw that Lucina was happening. However, he read the first three letters and stopped reading and already started typing up the leak.

 

[Deleted member]

This bears repeating (I wrote it a month ago):

It is going to be "hilarious" when the final roster is known and it is nothing like speculators or fans predicted. See what happened when Melee, Brawl, and Smash 4 all leaked. The same will probably happen with Ultimate. People will holler up and down that it is missing certain characters that are deemed "necessary" so it cannot be real, and people will look to more and more convoluted theories as to why Sakurai is pulling our leg.

Already. Who would have seen Ridley coming after Sakurai said he was "too big". Who would have seen Castlevania characters coming when everyone was talking more about the likes of Rayman, Shovel Knight, Shantae, and Kingdom Hearts over this franchise? Who could have predicted Dark Samus making it in despite the most wanted Metroid character for 17 years still having not made it in and her own time in the sun being over for a decade? Who would have predicted Chrom after Smash 4's official material outright mocked the character and Sakurai saying the character brought nothing special to the table? Who would have predicted that our Mario newcomer would be Daisy over the likes of Toad, Geno, Paper Mario, Waluigi, and Captain Toad?

Even when Simon was leaked, who saw a second Castlevania character coming?

The speculators get a lot of things right, but in the end there are many things unknown to us, and we do not understand how the selection process for one game might be different for the current one.

If I were to show the present roster to myself six months ago, I would never have believed it. Too many absurd character choices. However, in the context of Sakurai's new parameters for Ultimate, the characters make perfect sense.

This does not mean "expect out there characters", but rather step outside the expectations of the "crowd" for what we might ultimately get.

Just look now at "Geno, Isaac, and Skull Kid are the new trinity!!!1111". A few weeks ago, Skull Kid was barely a blip. Now due to being seen as "likely" he is seen as likely. Isaac had a cult following too, but the moment people looked at that Ratholos screenshot, they went all "oomgg Issic comfirmed!!!!!".

The biggest loudmouths formulate their own consensus and shout it over and over and over again, and within this maelstrom., people lose sight of their own inner wisdom or intuition. This is perhaps a statement on social media in general though.

"Absorb what is useful. Reject what is useless. Add what is essentially your own." - Bruce Lee

Notice how few now talk about Skull Kid now that the Loz train got derailed. A lot of character desires and "expectations" are drive by bandwagons and not necessarily what people actually want or expect.

That being said I fully expect Geno to be DLC, and Isaac had a decent chance as well assuming he is not hit with the Assist Trophy bat.

However, those who say its "impossible" that Sakurai only has two more characters left for the base roster have not been paying attention to history lessons. With Brawl, we closed with Olimar not Sonic. With Smash 4 we closed with Shulk not Mega Man or Pac-Man. With Smash 4 DLC we closed with Corrin and Bayonetta not Cloud.

Sakurai has already given us two warnings that there are much less newcomers this time around. In the last direct, Sakurai explicitly stated after Chrom and Dark Samus were confirmed that he only had a few more fighters left to unveil. This was before K. Rool and Isabelle were confirmed, and likely Incineroar and Ken. Four more fighters (K. Rool, Isabelle, Incineroar, and Ken) is indeed just "a few more".

I will also add this as well (also written a month ago):

As N3ON implied, we re-write the past to formulate a narrative that concurs with the zeitgeist of the present. Our hubris later becomes our rage, when what we "think" does not match "reality". Feel-ality does not always equal reality.

I have been a participant in Smash speculation since the pre-Melee days, and every single time the final reveals ends up causing massive rage and bitterness because it did not match their expectations. What makes you think Ultimate is going to be any different?

This. So much this.
I got hit by this hard back in Smash 4 prerelease days, no one back in the leaks group believed Ninka outside of Con0rrr and Neo, and the ESRB reaction is what anyone would have expected. And this is why I tell people to learn from the past but most people here refuse to do so.

Though this time, if the box theory is incorrect(doubtful), I'll actually be super happy to see the "expected roster" being completely wrong since most of those have nothing to interest me.

Idunno why you haven't heard of it, but iirc, even Loz knew the E3 trailer before it happened.

And yes, it was all in text.

I only really got into speculation this time around July iirc. Was too busy with college stuff to really get hype about it back during E3 so this is the first I hear of some random anon leaking the presentation.
Already knew about Loz tho.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Here's my take:

-Box Theory is wrong
-However, we're only getting 3-4 more characters instead of 2, with 2 of them being on the back of the box

 

[Deleted member]

These are old as dirt at this point.


The entirety of Smash at E3 was leaked on 4chan a day before probably by someone who helped set it up.


Intern-kun went rogue and is responsible for the Bloody Tears/Monster Dance leak, it wasn't an accident.

Wait, the ****ing music leak was intentional? Holy **** I thought that was a **** up due to the change in schedule lmao

 

[Shroob]

Wait, the ****ing music leak was intentional? Holy **** I thought that was a **** up due to the change in schedule lmao

Nope, that day a picture of the Smash4 CD was posted with the text of "Tonight's music update will reveal who the newcomer is tomorrow, I'll make sure of it" or something to that margin.

Intern-kun intentionally leaked the song title.

 

[Deleted member]

Nope, that day a picture of the Smash4 CD was posted with the text of "Tonight's music update will reveal who the newcomer is tomorrow, I'll make sure of it" or something to that margin.

Intern-kun intentionally leaked the song title.

Dude's a madman then, wonder why he did that though.

 

[Potato_]

Everyone wants the box theory to be wrong, so we'll all be glad if that happened. The only ones who stand to lose are the people who don't believe in the box theory and will be sorely disappointed if it turns out to be true.

Amazing how people still don't understand this. It's like by even SUGGESTING the box theory you must be some asshole who hates the character they want or something.

Nope, that day a picture of the Smash4 CD was posted with the text of "Tonight's music update will reveal who the newcomer is tomorrow, I'll make sure of it" or something to that margin.

Intern-kun intentionally leaked the song title.

Here is the source to that post if anyone is curious.

 

[Shroob]

Amazing how people still don't understand this. It's like by even SUGGESTING the box theory you must be some ******* who hates the character they want or something.



Here is the source to that post if anyone is curious.

This, really.



I think everyone wants Box Theory to be wrong since "Oh, two more characters", but we've prepared ourselves for worst case scenario.


However, blog theory is just as silly, since it's also something that cannot be realistically confirmed. 3 veterans a week is not a static number.

 

[Shadowwolflink]

Is "blog theory" the theory that says we're getting 7ish more characters based on how many characters are shown on the blog per week and how many weeks are left until release?

 

[Fatmanonice]

There was a large support for Chrono in Smash?

Well, i guess the reason Chrono's fanbase imploded was because the Chrono Franchise is pretty much dead. I mean at the very least Geno's franchise of origin is still running strong, and Isaac's franchise managed to survive longer.

Maybe. Back in the day, he was probably top 25 post E3 2006. In no particular order:

1. Sonic
2. Wolf
3. Krystal
4. Ridley
5. Megaman/X
6. Crono
7. Diddy
8. King Dedede
9. King K. Rool
10. Ike
11. Olimar
12. Daisy
13. Samurai Goroh
14. Lyn
15. Waluigi
16. Tom Nook
17. Toad
18. Lucario
19. Geno
20. Isaac
21. Deoxys
22. Blaziken
23. Dixie
24. Viewtiful Joe
25. Bowser Jr

Of course, documenting this sort of thing was like playing "99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall" as characters were confirmed and disconfirmed. As soon as characters made it or didn't, people would jump to others which is kind of how characters like Takamaru and Anna (Fire Emblem) got support in late Brawl/SSB4 speculation and emerged in the Smash Community.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

This bears repeating (I wrote it a month ago):

It is going to be "hilarious" when the final roster is known and it is nothing like speculators or fans predicted. See what happened when Melee, Brawl, and Smash 4 all leaked. The same will probably happen with Ultimate. People will holler up and down that it is missing certain characters that are deemed "necessary" so it cannot be real, and people will look to more and more convoluted theories as to why Sakurai is pulling our leg.

Already. Who would have seen Ridley coming after Sakurai said he was "too big". Who would have seen Castlevania characters coming when everyone was talking more about the likes of Rayman, Shovel Knight, Shantae, and Kingdom Hearts over this franchise? Who could have predicted Dark Samus making it in despite the most wanted Metroid character for 17 years still having not made it in and her own time in the sun being over for a decade? Who would have predicted Chrom after Smash 4's official material outright mocked the character and Sakurai saying the character brought nothing special to the table? Who would have predicted that our Mario newcomer would be Daisy over the likes of Toad, Geno, Paper Mario, Waluigi, and Captain Toad?

Even when Simon was leaked, who saw a second Castlevania character coming?

The speculators get a lot of things right, but in the end there are many things unknown to us, and we do not understand how the selection process for one game might be different for the current one.

If I were to show the present roster to myself six months ago, I would never have believed it. Too many absurd character choices. However, in the context of Sakurai's new parameters for Ultimate, the characters make perfect sense.

This does not mean "expect out there characters", but rather step outside the expectations of the "crowd" for what we might ultimately get.

Just look now at "Geno, Isaac, and Skull Kid are the new trinity!!!1111". A few weeks ago, Skull Kid was barely a blip. Now due to being seen as "likely" he is seen as likely. Isaac had a cult following too, but the moment people looked at that Ratholos screenshot, they went all "oomgg Issic comfirmed!!!!!".

The biggest loudmouths formulate their own consensus and shout it over and over and over again, and within this maelstrom., people lose sight of their own inner wisdom or intuition. This is perhaps a statement on social media in general though.

"Absorb what is useful. Reject what is useless. Add what is essentially your own." - Bruce Lee

Notice how few now talk about Skull Kid now that the Loz train got derailed. A lot of character desires and "expectations" are drive by bandwagons and not necessarily what people actually want or expect.

That being said I fully expect Geno to be DLC, and Isaac had a decent chance as well assuming he is not hit with the Assist Trophy bat.

However, those who say its "impossible" that Sakurai only has two more characters left for the base roster have not been paying attention to history lessons. With Brawl, we closed with Olimar not Sonic. With Smash 4 we closed with Shulk not Mega Man or Pac-Man. With Smash 4 DLC we closed with Corrin and Bayonetta not Cloud.

Sakurai has already given us two warnings that there are much less newcomers this time around. In the last direct, Sakurai explicitly stated after Chrom and Dark Samus were confirmed that he only had a few more fighters left to unveil. This was before K. Rool and Isabelle were confirmed, and likely Incineroar and Ken. Four more fighters (K. Rool, Isabelle, Incineroar, and Ken) is indeed just "a few more".

I will also add this as well (also written a month ago):

As N3ON implied, we re-write the past to formulate a narrative that concurs with the zeitgeist of the present. Our hubris later becomes our rage, when what we "think" does not match "reality". Feel-ality does not always equal reality.

I have been a participant in Smash speculation since the pre-Melee days, and every single time the final reveals ends up causing massive rage and bitterness because it did not match their expectations. What makes you think Ultimate is going to be any different?

Wasn't there kind of a text leak of the final roster that came out about a month before the actual pictures tho? And it seemed believable to me, but that was before we had as many fake leaks as we do now. And then when the pictures came out, the renders were obviously real.

But yes, I hope there are still some surprises, when the real leak actually does show up.

 

[Deoxys911]

I have been a participant in Smash speculation since the pre-Melee days, and every single time the final reveals ends up causing massive rage and bitterness because it did not match their expectations. What makes you think Ultimate is going to be any different?

Honestly, there are going to be far fewer fans disappointed by this roster than any before, and that's 100% confirmed already.

 

[PolarPanda]

Is "blog theory" the theory that says we're getting 7ish more characters based on how many characters are shown on the blog per week and how many weeks are left until release?

There's actually a **** ton of other parts to it. Gamexplain did a 40 minute interview about it. I spent 4 hours writing a doc on it and my friend spent 5 hours making a math spreadsheet on it. I also made 2 REALLY LONG reddit posts explaining it. In the past week, blog theory has become incredibly strong.

Here is the doc:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/...uhJFn1fbBETi7NN2I/edit#heading=h.tp4nxzqlfg5o

Here is the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sQJoJvxsYSaN80AFSfmLeym-7DsItbTMlAw9g_VLs-4/edit#gid=0

I also addressed multiple counterpoints in the doc. Relaxalax also made a video on it. Get pumped for the gamexplain vidya!
I'm honestly a bit lazy to explain it all for the 50th time. I could honestly write 30 paragraphs elaborating on it. If you want more indepth about the logic, like how the ISABELLE DELAY made blog theory stronger, ask away.

 

[Shroob]

There's actually a **** ton of other parts to it. Gamexplain did a 40 minute interview about it. I spent 4 hours writing a doc on it and my friend spent 5 hours making a math spreadsheet on it. I also made 2 REALLY LONG reddit posts explaining it. In the past week, blog theory has become incredibly strong.

Here is the doc:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/...uhJFn1fbBETi7NN2I/edit#heading=h.tp4nxzqlfg5o

Here is the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sQJoJvxsYSaN80AFSfmLeym-7DsItbTMlAw9g_VLs-4/edit#gid=0

I also addressed multiple counterpoints in the doc. Relaxalax also made a video on it. Get pumped for the gamexplain vidya!
I'm honestly a bit lazy to explain it all for the 50th time. I could honestly write 30 paragraphs elaborating on it. If you want more indepth about the logic, like how the ISABELLE DELAY made blog theory stronger, ask away.

I mean, good on ya.

But I'm still not sold on it.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Here's my take:

-Box Theory is wrong
-However, we're only getting 3-4 more characters instead of 2, with 2 of them being on the back of the box

While I don't believe divining a total character roster from placeholder art is useful, so I agree box theory is probably wrong, the point of the theory is that there are 72 characters total on both sides, and all but one slot is taken up on the other side. However, the actual box could easily be adjusted to have 74 characters total (and ya know, drop the crazy 9 pattern scheme to more accurately reflect their numbers on the sides of the box), or there are only 72 characters on the box when it goes to print, but more would be revealed after. I do, however, think 3-4 characters is a likely scenario, though I'm hoping for 6-7.

 

[PolarPanda]

Is "blog theory" the theory that says we're getting 7ish more characters based on how many characters are shown on the blog per week and how many weeks are left until release?

Right, I forgot. this reddit post would probably be the most suitable to explain what made blog theory stronger in the past week:
https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/9htxak/blog_theory_week_1_update/

I'll be writing a second reddit post soon after the gamexplain video drops on the theory.

"
Next, I'll go into something a bit more complicated. As you may remember, the .JSON for the blog labeled each post in chronological order by the 'Rendered:' field. For instance, the recent Ganondorf post was numbered post 144 in the .JSON. Normally, this wouldn't have been a very fun or important detail, but it actually became important to this theory after that annoying delay. On 9/6 in Japan, the thursday before the delay, post number 133 - Alolan Exeggutor was made. As you remember, there was no post on the day of the delay. On the following monday, it jumped to 142 - Bowser, then jumped back down to 138 - Toon Link. This seemed sporadic and random at first, but it actually makes complete sense. This is due to the fact that almost every single post number between 133 and 150 has been posted now, so we can see what the original schedule was! Judging by the fact that the stages posted on the same day as songs, wednesdays in Japan, we get this original schedule:



9/6 Thursday.) 133 exeggutor

9/7 Friday.) Without the delay: 135 isabelle cgi trailer (134 in US)

# of fighters this week without delay: still 2!



9/10 Monday.) 136 and 137 Isabelle blog post and memory

9/11 Tuesday.) 138 and 139 toon link blog post and memory

9/12 Wednesday.) 140 animal crossing theme + 141 summit

9/13 Thursday.) 142 Bowser

9/14 Friday.) 143 - ???



9/17 Monday.) 144 - Ganondorf.

9/18 Tuesday.) 145 Shovel knight.

9/19 Wednesday,) 146 Pikmin Theme + 147 Onett

9/20 Thursday.) 148 and 149 Ryu's memory

9/21 Friday.) 150 - Pikachu, 151 - Red and blue memory.



So why is this important? Well, it explains why isabelle's blog entry was on a different date than her CGI trailer: because she NEEDED to be on the following monday, since toon link was the day before the music post, and the only fighter before toon link was isabelle.

This also explains why the post-delay schedule looked so hectic: it was actually qutie methodical. Bowser simply replaced isabelle's role as the monday fighter, and ryu replaced bowser's role as the friday fighter.



The fact that the week of 9/7 was meant to have 2 fighters originally doesn't harm the calculation since that was already accounted for, the average is still 2.933.



Interestingly, and for the better, these past 2 weeks have been weeks with 3 fighters. I predicted this in the Discord server and flipped when I saw Pikachu at the end of the week! If you see the original schedule, you'd notice that the blog is officially on schedule again. Post number 150 was scheduled for 9/21, and it got posted on 9/21 (Japanese times)."

 

[TheCJBrine]

While I don't believe divining a total character roster from placeholder art is useful, so I agree box theory is probably wrong, the point of the theory is that there are 72 characters total on both sides, and all but one slot is taken up on the other side. However, the actual box could easily be adjusted to have 74 characters total (and ya know, drop the crazy 9 pattern scheme to more accurately reflect their numbers on the sides of the box), or there are only 72 characters on the box when it goes to print, but more would be revealed after. I do, however, think 3-4 characters is a likely scenario, though I'm hoping for 6-7.

I understand the Box Theory, I'm just assuming anymore popular third-parties (i.e. Steve and B-K) would be placed on the back, like Snake and Sonic on Brawl's case.

But, yeah, they could just adjust the art. hopefully they didn't physically make what's shown yet

 

[Paperchampion23]

Wasn't there kind of a text leak of the final roster that came out about a month before the actual pictures tho? And it seemed believable to me, but that was before we had as many fake leaks as we do now. And then when the pictures came out, the renders were obviously real.

But yes, I hope there are still some surprises, when the real leak actually does show up.

If previous releases are to go by, there are ALWAYS surprises for Smash, just not what people expect as surprises.

Granted, it has definitely gotten easier to make a pool of characters we can possibly predict Sakurai is pulling from, especially as the number of possible characters shrinks and more well known 3rd parties are seemingly thrown into the mix.

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

You know I've been wondering how willing people would be to pay for Echo Fighters given what they are (and the only semi-clones sold previously were Lucas and Roy who had large followings), but I realized Black Knight and Black Shadow could easily be held back from the base roster because while many people may not know who they are, they're the kind of characters that could probably be sold on looks and origin alone. Just a thought that came to me.