Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Potato_]

What has Vergeben predicted? Well I'd argue a bunch of REALLY safe bets. Simon had rumors even before vergeben showed up and was pretty much known to be a lock for anyone who's been in the smash scene for a while.
.

You're entitled to your opinion about Vergeben sure, but I'm pretty sure no one saw Simon as a "lock" until E3 happened and we saw Vergeben had legit info.
You could maybe argue that Stealth_ said Simon first, but even then to call him a lock is just untrue.

At the end of the day what I think about Vergeben is that he doesn't know everything. He's not a "leaker" per-se, he just gives out info that real leakers give him. The only call that made me somewhat iffy on him was Isabelle being a newcomer, everything else he seemed 100% legit on, just not knowing about the other details.

Is there even a chance that among the 1000 leakers, there is one, just ONE leaker, that has some right information besides Vergeben?

Probably, but we also probably have looked them over assuming that they're fake. Remember E3 leaked before it happened, LoZ had posted everything literally 2 weeks or so before.

 

[Majora's Visage]

View attachment 166525
Phill Swift, Joins the battle!

This is gold

 

[Fatmanonice]

Honestly if I got Crono I'd be so happy with the roster they could add Bugs Bunny for all I'd care I'd be satisfied

I'll never understand why the Crono Smash fanbase all but imploded after Brawl. I was kind of expecting a giant resurgence like Banjo and Skull Kid got with the Smash Ballot but it never happened, even after the Meme-Dream Cloud got confirmed. Supposedly Chrono Trigger's liscensing is a cluster**** though but since when have fanbases ever cared about that sort of thing?

 

[Paperchampion23]

Is there even a chance that among the 1000 leakers, there is one, just ONE leaker, that has some right information besides Vergeben?

Yes, it is possible. Has it happened before? Not really, people who are adamant about leaking the game will keep in trying to until people believe them.

See any of the legit brawl or 4 leaks, some were early on and the users kept defending the information. So far I've only ever seen Vergeben like that

 

[Starbound]

I wouldn't count Vergeben out for missing K. Rool or the echoes.

I think it's likely that his source had a testbuild of the game, and testbuilds don't usually have the whole roster on them (usually just the ones they want to bugfix or play test). My own prediction is that his source played one of these builds that had Ridley, Ice Climbers, Snake, Simon, Ken, Isabelle and Incineroar on it.

K. Rool was likely on another testbuild to avoid giving playtesters all of the newcomers, alongside Dark Samus, Chrom, Richter, Pichu, Young Link, Wolf, Daisy and any remaining characters.

 

[Evanpik64]

I wouldn't count Vergeben out for missing K. Rool or the echoes.

I think it's likely that his source had a testbuild of the game, and testbuilds don't usually have the whole roster on them (usually just the ones they want to bugfix or play test). My own prediction is that his source played one of these builds that had Ridley, Ice Climbers, Snake, Simon, Ken, Isabelle and Incineroar on it.

K. Rool was likely on another testbuild to avoid giving playtesters all of the newcomers, alongside Dark Samus, Chrom, Richter, Pichu, Young Link, Wolf, Daisy and any remaining characters.

Actually that would be a good reason, after all I'd imagine Echoes were made later in development then the rest of the roster. Probably. I actually have no idea.

 

[Untouch]

The most absurd theory I've seen so far is the theory that every character is only being revealed in the order they're being revealed in is because this order is also the order in which the games they star in were released.
I mean so far it's true (except inklings) but this would really limit newcomers.

 

[Luigi The President]

The most absurd theory I've seen so far is the theory that every character is only being revealed in the order they're being revealed in is because this order is also the order in which the games they star in were released.
I mean so far it's true (except inklings) but this would really limit newcomers.

There's the key.
Except Inklings.

A pattern is a pattern until it doesn't hold up.
And it didn't even start holding up.

 

[PushDustIn]

blame SourceGaming

Sorry about that.

"Sakurai may have wanted to reveal characters for the casual audience later" or something to that effect.

Does Steve count as a reveal for the casual audience :thinking:

Steve would actually be a hype final reveal! Minecraft is a huge franchise.

I wonder why this is in the description...
View attachment 166519

That's there so I don't get 100x comments "Yeah but what about Steve? LOL"

Pretty sure PushDustIn gets a lot of predictions right because he is maximally informed about first-order sources and simply makes his guesses based on that information instead of internet echo chambers. (Groundbreaking strategy)

Pretty much this. I've read every single Sakurai column, I'm starting to understand how the guy thinks. @_@

 

[T3Z3R1]

I wouldn't count Vergeben out for missing K. Rool or the echoes.

I think it's likely that his source had a testbuild of the game, and testbuilds don't usually have the whole roster on them (usually just the ones they want to bugfix or play test). My own prediction is that his source played one of these builds that had Ridley, Ice Climbers, Snake, Simon, Ken, Isabelle and Incineroar on it.

K. Rool was likely on another testbuild to avoid giving playtesters all of the newcomers, alongside Dark Samus, Chrom, Richter, Pichu, Young Link, Wolf, Daisy and any remaining characters.

That, must be good chance that there's different testbuilds of Ultimate with different characters in it. If I can recall, isn't this how melee's and brawl's rosters got leaked that way?

 

[Mega Bidoof]

There's the key.
Except Inklings.

A pattern is a pattern until it doesn't hold up.
And it didn't even start holding up.

I mean, Inklings were announced outside of the main speculation cycle, and I honestly sometimes forget they’re newcomers in this game by this point.

Also if Incineroar is actually the final unique newcomer, this theory would be true minus Inklings.

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

The whole E3 smash section leaked on /v/ before it was shown.

Oh yeah, keep forgetting about that leak hours before the presentation. I want to say "Doesn't count" but I guess technically speaking it does.
Good thing I decided to avoid the internet one day before the E3 presentation to avoid getting spoiled.

 

[Exalt4747]

Oh hey, PushDustin posted.

I need to watch the newest sourcevid myself...maybe it will help me feel more certain about Incineroar.

 

[YoshiandToad]

The most absurd theory I've seen so far is the theory that every character is only being revealed in the order they're being revealed in is because this order is also the order in which the games they star in were released.
I mean so far it's true (except inklings) but this would really limit newcomers.

That'd take both Geno and Sora out the running if true as Isabelle debuted long after both.

Who'd that leave us with for that MYSTERY SQUARE REP™ ?

Agnès Oblige from Bravely Default perhaps...?

 

[TheCJBrine]

Steve would actually be a hype final reveal! Minecraft is a huge franchise.

Yeah I'm hoping we get Steve alongside any potential Minecraft stage, assuming Vergeben's sources are right.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Even before Steve, there was the Square Enix rep, which Vergeben ONLY walked back to "DLC maybe" because of the box leak, and not anything his sources were telling him. Which implies, at least to me, that the Square Enix rep is probably on the base roster as well, I'm not even sure if Vergeben's sources would have access to DLC information at this stage.

 

[Luigi The President]

I mean, Inklings were announced outside of the main speculation cycle, and I honestly sometimes forget they’re newcomers in this game by this point.

Also if Incineroar is actually the final unique newcomer, this theory would be true minus Inklings.

It would be. But Incineroar being the final unique newcomer is a big assumption.
I'm speaking based off of what we already have.

Speculation cycle or not...they were announced first. Broke the pattern.

 

[Nintrendo]

Woof a lot of commotion here in the last few hours. I’m just gonna throw down a few thoughts of mine:

-I don’t see Ninten being an Echo of Ness. From my understanding every Echo fighter has to look distinct from their parent. When I look at them from far away, I can easily tell Samus and Dark Samus apart. You could argue that Marth and Lucina look similar, but Lucina at least has a different gender. Now Ness and Ninten on the other hand look so damn similar, and because they’ve gone so far as to remove costumes that resemble other characters, I highly doubt Ninten would get an Echo spot.

-This Sora talk is going literally nowhere. I don’t think he’s in the base game, I think talks came late and so he’s slated to be the first DLC character. Given their stingyness and money involved I doubt he’d get a second rep, although I agree Roxas makes perfect sense. Mentioned earlier that I think Geno is in the launch game as well.

-I don’t believe the box or music theory. I think the blog theory is the most “sound” one. The evidence I’ve personally compiled for Shadow is damning to the point where I’m almost certain he’s in the base game and he’ll be revealed with Ken as they’re both 3rd party echoes. Tails I’m not betting on but he could absolutely follow as DLC down the line given how much SEGA likes to play ball.

-What the hell is a Tamagon?

The thing is sakurai said dlc isn’t even being talked about rn he’s finishing the base game first

 

[SonicMario]

On the "leak" that's trying to call Lucas as the next update. Reminder there was one time someone claimed Mr. Game and Watch was the next blog update (In the same "leak", it claimed K. Rool would be just an Assist Trophy announced in the coming direct).

Safe to say that didn't happen.

 

[Untouch]

That'd take both Geno and Sora out the running if true as Isabelle debuted long after both.

Who'd that leave us with for that MYSTERY SQUARE REP™ ?

Agnès Oblige from Bravely Default perhaps...?

Olberic is in!

 

[Luigi The President]

The thing is sakurai said dlc isn’t even being talked about rn he’s finishing the base game first

Would make no sense from a business perspective to say "yeah we're actually working on DLC now" because it means they're leaving characters out of the base roster, even if it isn't intentionally.
Even Big Daddy Sakurai has to tell a white lie.

 

[Deleted member]

I'll never understand why the Crono Smash fanbase all but imploded after Brawl. I was kind of expecting a giant resurgence like Banjo and Skull Kid got with the Smash Ballot but it never happened, even after the Meme-Dream Cloud got confirmed. Supposedly Chrono Trigger's liscensing is a cluster**** though but since when have fanbases ever cared about that sort of thing?

That's something I've always wondered tbh. CT has always been a big thing in the RPG community so it was always weird for it to not have as much discussion in regards to Smash. My only hope for Crono now if for Smash Flash 2 to add him already instead of whatever the **** they're going for.

But what's this about its license being an issue? I don't think liceneses are an issue considering it has gotten numerous rereleases throughout the years(even if of questionable quality).

 

[kylexv]

So you know how a lot of people are expecting Steve at this point?
You know what would actually be the worst timeline?

Alex as an echo fighter of Steve.

 

[Nap_]

Well, I've been outside these days. Can someone explain me why the Minecraft leak seems now legit and we don't continue with the box madness and only two more fighters? Is there anything more than Vergeben's support to that leaker?

 

[TheCJBrine]

So you know how a lot of people are expecting Steve at this point?
You know what would actually be the worst timeline?

Alex as an echo fighter of Steve.

no we need Herobrine.

Well, I've been outside these days. Can someone explain me why the Minecraft leak seems now legit and we don't continue with the box madness and only two more fighters? Is there anything more than Vergeben's support to that leaker?

Vergeben claimed there would be Minecraft content in the form of a stage or AT, possibly, and has recently stated that he heard this from his main Smash sources along with "'possibly' a character" when answering if the other guy was legit. He has also heard murmurs of Steve being playable, but that was from contacts outside his main Smash sources.

 

[Deleted member]

So you know how a lot of people are expecting Steve at this point?
You know what would actually be the worst timeline?

Alex as an echo fighter of Steve.

You misspelled best

 

[Exalt4747]

Well, I've been outside these days. Can someone explain me why the Minecraft leak seems now legit and we don't continue with the box madness and only two more fighters? Is there anything more than Vergeben's support to that leaker?

I've not heard a lot about the specifics, but an ELA test was run on the box.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

So you know how a lot of people are expecting Steve at this point?
You know what would actually be the worst timeline?

Alex as an echo fighter of Steve.

I really wouldn't mind an Alex Echo tbh, Her arms are skinnier than Steve's, so they might have to tweak some stuff with her.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I just assumed Alex would take up half of Steve's alt. costumes, like Olimar and Alph, but I'd be fine with an echo.

I hope the stage is called "New World"; it's already gonna say "Minecraft" as the game of origin anyway.

 

[Paperchampion23]

I think what people need to understand is that the inclusion of Minecraft would mean the first ever inclusion of a western franchise represented in Smash (Yes, I know Dark Samus, K. Rool and Diddy are of western origin, but their franchises aren't.)

This LITERALLY opens the floodgates for other deserving western IPs to join smash, namely Rayman, Banjo, Crash, Spyro, you name it.

I'd be more excited at the prospect of a Minecraft rep than not because of this, even if you aren't a fan

 

[Deleted member]

I'll never understand why the Crono Smash fanbase all but imploded after Brawl. I was kind of expecting a giant resurgence like Banjo and Skull Kid got with the Smash Ballot but it never happened, even after the Meme-Dream Cloud got confirmed. Supposedly Chrono Trigger's liscensing is a cluster**** though but since when have fanbases ever cared about that sort of thing?

There was a large support for Chrono in Smash?

Well, i guess the reason Chrono's fanbase imploded was because the Chrono Franchise is pretty much dead. I mean at the very least Geno's franchise of origin is still running strong, and Isaac's franchise managed to survive longer.

 

[Nap_]

I've not heard a lot about the specifics, but an ELA test was run on the box.

Sorry, but... What's ELA?

Vergeben claimed there would be Minecraft content in the form of a stage or AT, possibly, and has recently stated that he heard this from his main Smash sources along with "'possibly' a character" when answering if the other guy was legit. He has also heard murmurs of Steve being playable, but that was from contacts outside his main Smash sources.

Thanks for the answer!

 

[Jchrono95]

That's something I've always wondered tbh. CT has always been a big thing in the RPG community so it was always weird for it to not have as much discussion in regards to Smash. My only hope for Crono now if for Smash Flash 2 to add him already instead of whatever the **** they're going for.

But what's this about its license being an issue? I don't think liceneses are an issue considering it has gotten numerous rereleases throughout the years(even if of questionable quality).

Yeah as far as I can find in a couple minutes of looking (which granted isn't much) I can't find any license issues

 

[Nekoo]

You know. I'm just going to toss away any leaks with a Square Characters name in it. Whenever it's Geno/Sora or whatever because of how secretive Square is.

That is until we get a Ken situation. But until then, unless we get words from Vergeben himself, who himself believe we need to wait the reveal of that Characters.

I keep an eye on Master0fHyrule because I feel the "source protection" with him saying "don't asks where I heard this" and using 4chan as a scapegoat alongside "lost link"

Every Text leak are fake for me now. When it goes down to square Characters and name it.

 

[Guber]

https://www.game.co.uk/en/nintendo-switch-super-smash-bros-ultimate-bundle-2504886

What happened to this site saying that there were 71 fighters?

 

[CosmicQuark]

Well, I've been outside these days. Can someone explain me why the Minecraft leak seems now legit and we don't continue with the box madness and only two more fighters? Is there anything more than Vergeben's support to that leaker?

Nope.

That being said, Verg legitimizing the leaker does make it hold up more than other rumors, however looking at his posts as is it reads the same as all the other baseless 4chan text leaks.

 

[Untouch]

https://www.game.co.uk/en/nintendo-switch-super-smash-bros-ultimate-bundle-2504886

What happened to this site saying that there were 71 fighters?

That was just based on the about section on the site.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

As good as it is to see Source Gaming compile a lot of information in one video... I'm sorry, but given Source Gaming's track record with speculation, that just makes me think Ken and Incineroar AREN'T it. Absolutely no hate to PushDustIn, you guys are absolutely spectacular at finding truthful information and fact-checking, but you guys get speculation wrong pretty often.

 

[RC-3197]

Nope.

That being said, Verg legitimizing the leaker does make it hold up more than other rumors, however looking at his posts as is it reads the same as all the other baseless 4chan text leaks.

You forget the part that the guy leaked Samurai Showdown (which was what the original reddit post was about) in extreme detail. This guy could actually stand on his own, vergeben's support just gives them a credibility boost.
I'm sure that if we looked into it there's more to this guy, I just can't name anything off the top of my head.

 

[Untouch]

You forget the part that the guy leaked Samurai Showdown (which was what the original reddit post was about) in extreme detail. This guy could actually stand on his own, vergeben's support just gives them a credibility boost.

Vergeben leaked that 4 months ago.