Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Starbound]

Next week is the final 60 day countdown

Oh my god are we really at that point already?

I still remember the announcement from March vividly.

 

[Deleted member]

I remember people posting codes on here and me always being too slow so I had to wait. There were even posts with people posting multiple fake ones in the same post along with a single correct one between them all.

It also disappointed me because I read that the one sent through codes had Pac-Man

I ended up getting one so...

The ones who were just a little too late got a "Maybe you'll get your chance another day." message

Honestly if I had to guess it'll be locked behind Nintendo Switch Online.

Great, now you jinxed it

 

[Arymle Roseanne]

Blog theory, box theory, music theory...oh my.

Time will only tell when we truly know everything.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Except the website already accounts for this.


It says we have 72 characters, Pokemon Trainer couters as one.

Remove the 3 Miis and you have 69.

True but still doesn’t necessary mean we are not getting 5 more

I mean 3 or 4 more is plausible

 

[Shroob]

True but still doesn’t necessary mean we are not getting 5 more

I mean 3 or 4 more is plausible

3 more gives us 72 fighters for Smashdown theory, which would be the Vergeben 3.


I don't even believe in Smashdown because that theory gets destroyed as soon as the first DLC character drops.

 

[Fatmanonice]

I dunno. Geno has been waiting for a very long time and has had support for much longer, including from Sakurai himself. And given that he probably did exceptionally well on the ballot, as well as Ultimate's goal of catering to core fans, he seems very likely, and so I'm confident in his inclusion. Not gonna be too upset if he's not in though; I already have Isabelle!

This. First off, these were the poll results for character requests... for Melee. That was 18 YEARS AGO. That's 18 YEARS of people poking Sakurai with a proverbial stick to get Geno in Smash. Some of you here haven't even been alive that long. Geno of been a factor in the Smash Fanbase for like 95% of the franchise's existence. Me personally, I've been supporting Geno online since 2005 and mailed my first letter to Nintendo about him in 2002. Now that Ridley and K. Rool are in, there's no other characters with that degree of longevity aside from Isaac who was created in 2001 and arguably Skull Kid in 2000. It's kinda nuts when you step back and look at it. Yes, Geno only had a major role in one game 22 years but the tenacity of his fanbase and SMRPG as a whole is legendary. I'm biased as all hell but I definitely think that speaks for something and why, with the 20th anniversary of Smash on the horizon, the stars may finally align.

 

[Shroob]

Oh my god are we really at that point already?

I still remember the announcement from March vividly.

Yep, pretty crazy that we're only 70 days out as of today, and next week is 60.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

3 more gives us 72 fighters for Smashdown theory, which would be the Vergeben 3.


I don't even believe in Smashdown because that theory gets destroyed as soon as the first DLC character drops.

Just throw in 11 dlc then 84 is the next number

The true secret of the theory it’s all the number divisible by 12 that’s it

But really I didn’t realize it till later

I still think 5 is the magic number

Vergebens 3 and shadow and skull kid (missing in action especially shadow since knuckles might be taking his place)

 

[alemerltoucanet]

Anything new come up recently?

 

[Deleted member]

Just throw in 11 dlc then 84 is the next number

The true secret of the theory it’s all the number divisible by 12 that’s it

But really I didn’t realize it till later

I still think 5 is the magic number

Vergebens 3 and shadow and skull kid (missing in action especially shadow since knuckles might be taking his place)

That would require someone to buy ALL the DLC though

 

[Untouch]

This. First off, these were the poll results for character requests... for Melee. That was 18 YEARS AGO. That's 18 YEARS of people poking Sakurai with a proverbial stick to get Geno in Smash. Some of you here haven't even been alive that long. Geno of been a factor in the Smash Fanbase for like 95% of the franchise's existence. Me personally, I've been supporting Geno online since 2005 and mailed my first letter to Nintendo about him in 2002. Now that Ridley and K. Rool are in, there's no other characters with that degree of longevity aside from Isaac who was created in 2001 and arguably Skull Kid in 2000. It's kinda nuts when you step back and look at it. Yes, Geno only had a major role in one game 22 years but the tenacity of his fanbase and SMRPG as a whole is legendary. I'm biased as all hell but I definitely think that speaks for something and why, with the 20th anniversary of Smash on the horizon, the stars may finally align.

Gooey #2 for Kirby is interesting.
Star Allies really expanded his moveset so he'd be an interesting choice.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh my god are we really at that point already?

I still remember the announcement from March vividly.

It really is unreal how close it is. It's such a stark contrast from Wii U and 3DS, lol. It still feels like yesterday I was losing my mind over the Inklings, lol.

 

[KingofKoopas]

Lowkey though, this month is going to ****ing suck if we don't get a Direct.

Next week is the final 60 day countdown, and we'll still be getting blogs from 8.8's Direct.

I got a feeling well get one but it wont be a Smash Direct, best we can hope for is a Pokemon Direct that happens to reveal Incineroar (and also the gen 8 games) or another Vanilla Direct.

 

[P1ZZ4CHU]

Smashdown theory is bunk whether there are a divisible number of characters or not. If up to eight players play it, then that means there's a bunch of configurations that aren't going to slice evenly no matter the end amount. And what if it's drop in drop out?

 

[FooltheFlames]

If the Steve leak is real, would your reaction to him be the same as Kirby's in this video? XD

 

[Deleted member]

This. First off, these were the poll results for character requests... for Melee. That was 18 YEARS AGO. That's 18 YEARS of people poking Sakurai with a proverbial stick to get Geno in Smash. Some of you here haven't even been alive that long. Geno of been a factor in the Smash Fanbase for like 95% of the franchise's existence. Me personally, I've been supporting Geno online since 2005 and mailed my first letter to Nintendo about him in 2002. Now that Ridley and K. Rool are in, there's no other characters with that degree of longevity aside from Isaac who was created in 2001 and arguably Skull Kid in 2000. It's kinda nuts when you step back and look at it. Yes, Geno only had a major role in one game 22 years but the tenacity of his fanbase and SMRPG as a whole is legendary. I'm biased as all hell but I definitely think that speaks for something and why, with the 20th anniversary of Smash on the horizon, the stars may finally align.

5 people asking for Geno doesn't really amount to much of a stick, really. And thats not a exaggeration; there were only 5 votes for him in that poll you dropped. A generic Chocobo had almost double his votes with 9. James Bond (007) had 7x his vote!

 

[KingofKoopas]

If the Steve leak is real, would your reaction to him be the same as Kirby's in this video? XD

this WOULD explain the lack of waluigi

 

[Shroob]

I got a feeling well get one but it wont be a Smash Direct, best we can hope for is a Pokemon Direct that happens to reveal Incineroar (and also the gen 8 games) or another Vanilla Direct.

They don't reveal Smash newcomers outside of General Directs or Smash Directs.


A Pokemon Direct doesn't mean Incineroar will get revealed, just like how in Smash 4 days how a Zelda direct or a Pokemon Direct meant nothing.

 

[praline]

I got a feeling well get one but it wont be a Smash Direct, best we can hope for is a Pokemon Direct that happens to reveal Incineroar (and also the gen 8 games) or another Vanilla Direct.

Why would they show a smash reveal in a pokemon direct? That makes no sense lol

 

[Mewtader]

Why would they show a smash reveal in a pokemon direct? That makes no sense lol

Exactly, why would they show a minecraft rep in a non nintendo event or direct? has a character ever been revealed outside of a nintendo related event?

 

[Fatmanonice]

5 people asking for Geno doesn't really amount to much of a stick, really. And thats not a exaggeration; there were only 5 votes for him in that poll you dropped. A generic Chocobo had almost double his votes with 9. James Bond (007) had 7x his vote!

You're missing the forest for the trees here. The point is that there is evidence that people have been asking for Geno for almost the entirety of the Smash series. Can't recall the last time James Bond or a Chocobo had tangible followings in the Smash fanbase, can you? Plus, Wolf, Pit, Ice Climbers, Megaman, and Sonic all had equal or less if you really want to plant your feet into that argument.

 

[Misery Brick]

Isn't there also supposed to be a November Direct?
If we don't get anything in October, I could see the next reveal being in that, then everything is switched over to an actual Smash direct shortly after.

 

[Jdaster64]

Smashdown theory is bunk whether there are a divisible number of characters or not. If up to eight players play it, then that means there's a bunch of configurations that aren't going to slice evenly no matter the end amount. And what if it's drop in drop out?

Alternatively, 840 characters + Mii confirmed.

 

[praline]

Exactly, why would they show a minecraft rep in a non nintendo event or direct? has a character ever been revealed outside of a nintendo related event?

Only Robin and Lucina but they were just randomly shown one day outside of a direct.

 

[RyuhoFox]

So how many theories are there right now? lol. Seems like there's a new theory all the time.

 

[PsySmasher]

Just throw in 11 dlc then 84 is the next number

The true secret of the theory it’s all the number divisible by 12 that’s it

But really I didn’t realize it till later

I still think 5 is the magic number

Vergebens 3 and shadow and skull kid (missing in action especially shadow since knuckles might be taking his place)

Unless you release DLC in a way that keeps the total number of fighters (excluding Miis) divisible by 12 at any given time, there is no way you're going to have an equal number of fighters for every player in Smashdown.

Plus, we don't know exactly how many players can play Smashdown; we know that at least 4 players is possible, but considering 8 player smash has been pretty much combined under the normal Smash menu, there's a possibility that Smashdown could have 5-8 players.

If this is the case, you won't get a number that's divisible by 1 through 8 until you get to 840 (which seems a little big for the roster).

So yeah, unless they:
1) have a roster divisible by 12 (in the case of a 4 player max) at ANY given time during the game's life cycle
OR
2) put in a 840 character roster (in the case of an 8 player max)

This theory makes no sense whatsoever.

I'm not saying that 5 more characters is a bad estimate (frankly it's a pretty good one), but the justification for said argument is VERY weak, virtually nonexistent.

 

[Majora's Visage]

Saw the posts about Sakurai saying reveals will slow down and the consensus is basically Incineroar, Ken and SE rep. Did I miss anything else?

 

[Thinkaman]

Why would they show a smash reveal in a pokemon direct? That makes no sense lol

I agree that it's unprecedented and very unlikely. I flat out do not think it will happen.

But it's the only plausible case I could think of where there could be any Smash presentation content outside of the one (1) Smash Direct left. (Which, logically, I don't think Smash content outside the Direct will happen.)

Again, the average time between major (all-region) General + Smash Directs is historically 75 days. The median is 60 days. Given that release week is in only 65 days yet we just had a Direct less than 2 weeks ago... We know we're getting a Direct for the remaining modes + online features + last 2 characters, but even that one Direct as late as early-November will be ahead of schedule by itself.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

enough already guys i just said i didn"t realize till later in that post thats being comment it

i mean im really looking at this for the final roster

for now anyway.

oh by the way it just hit me on something about skull kid

on of the atributes of skull kid is reversing direction of players and the rambling evil mushroom did that so might be taking skull kids place as well as the moon perhaps?

and this is excluding dlc

 

[praline]

enough already guys i just said i didn"t realize till later in that post thats being comment it

i mean im really looking at this for the final roster

View attachment 166810

for now anyway.

and this is excluding dlc

I’d be more than ok with this

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

So how many theories are there right now? lol. Seems like there's a new theory all the time.

There is one: Nihilist theory.

No theory is right and they're all bull****.

 

[Shroob]

Isn't there also supposed to be a November Direct?
If we don't get anything in October, I could see the next reveal being in that, then everything is switched over to an actual Smash direct shortly after.

No?


Maybe they'll hold a Pokemon Direct, but Nintendo Directs are more or less quarterly nowadays, meaning we shouldn't get another one realistically until December/January.

 

[Deleted member]

You're missing the forest for the trees here. The point is that there is evidence that people have been asking for Geno for almost the entirety of the Smash series. Can't recall the last time James Bond or a Chocobo had tangible followings in the Smash fanbase, can you? Plus, Wolf, Pit, Ice Climbers, Megaman, and Sonic all had equal or less if you really want to plant your feet into that argument.

True, but it does seem odd that a character with less votes, Ice Climbers, managed to get in before him. I wonder if Sakurai just played SMRPG more recently if he likes it like he says? Otherwise I would have thought Geno would have made it in before the climbers.

 

[StarLight42]

Can anyone tell me why GameXplain made an entire video on this theory? I thought the blog theory was condemned as some sort of "joke" like the music and box theories.

 

[Shroob]

Can anyone tell me why GameXplain made an entire video on this theory? I thought the blog theory was condemned as some sort of "joke" like the music and box theories.

According to what I've read, the people who made the theory reached out to Gamexplain themselves.


Looking at the subreddit post which is talking about the theory, the Discord that made this theory is more or less white knighting it to hell and back, meaning that no one really can talk it down without the downvote brigade happening.

 

[FooltheFlames]

I’d be more than ok with this

I love Zelda, it's my favorite Nintendo series. (as you can prolly tell by looking at my mains) I've played or beaten every mainline Zelda game outside of Spirit Tracks and Skyward Sword. But even I think characters like Banjo & Kazooie or Isaac should take precedence over Skull Kid. I still want Skull Kid to have some representation though. Perhaps a boss in Spirits Mode if that's going to be a thing~

 

[PLATINUM7]

Can anyone tell me why GameXplain made an entire video on this theory? I thought the blog theory was condemned as some sort of "joke" like the music and box theories.

Gamexplain will make entire videos on anything.

Small detail in a trailer that means nothing? 10 minute analysis.
Possibility of a Nintendo Direct? 3 minute news video and 30 minute discussion.
2 minute teaser trailer? 2 hour analysis.

 

[**Gilgamesh**]

I'm pretty confident there's a good chance we'll be seeing Sora as DLC for sure. He works better that way anyways since the deal between Nintendo and Microsoft would work better that way in a split deal with money.

Sora
>Microsoft
Ummmm...... KeK?

Disney where? Square-Enix where???

 

[Fatmanonice]

True, but it does seem odd that a character with less votes, Ice Climbers, managed to get in before him. I wonder if Sakurai just played SMRPG more recently if he likes it like he says? Otherwise I would have thought Geno would have made it in before the climbers.

Geno's owned by Square Enix and third party characters wouldn't happen for another 6 years. Again, if you really want to dig your feet into this argument, Ice Climbers were chosen before Sonic, Megaman, Wario, Dedede, Metaknight, Diddy, etc. Plus, Sakurai is on the record for acknowledging that 1. Geno's had a notable fanbase for a long time and 2. that he put serious consideration for him as far back as Brawl: https://www.eventhubs.com/news/2016...ans-one-most-requested-smash-bros-characters/

 

[CosmicQuark]

Can anyone tell me why GameXplain made an entire video on this theory? I thought the blog theory was condemned as some sort of "joke" like the music and box theories.

While I'm just as perplexed why they made a 30 minute video on it, it's not a joke theory--it had some simple and sound assumptions. However, the recent news, Sakurai addressed those assumptions, saying not to expect a steady amount of information (as one would suspect), that's essentially official confirmation that those assumptions, however reasonable, were wrong.