I would be very very okay with no new Pokemon newcomer...!
There were already plenty of Pokemon in Smash 4, and Ultimate brought back three more. Let's give some other series a chance to shine!
I agree. When Sakurai said not to expect too many newcomers as a result of all veterans returning, and that we had two Pokemon veterans returning (one of which was actually three fighters in one) that a Pokemon rep wasn't necessary. After all, in a limited roster, another Pokemon rep means less chance of a first party newcomer from a new series. And, personally, I'd rather have a Digimon rep like Agumon to add a more interesting dynamic, especially considering Bandai Namco is making the game. And I've never been a fan of the argument of having a rep for a sake of a rep--"Smash always needs a new Pokemon", "Smash always needs a weird retro character", "Smash always needs an off-the-wall character".
All that having been said--I still think Incineroar is highly likely and this doesn't really change much. Not a certainty though!