Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[hposter]

in other news, some series icons on the smash website have separate parts
going into inspect element and delete parts yields entertaining results

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I do think that people need to lower their expectations.

There's a reason a lot of the old guard are saying that.

It's because we've seen this happen with Smash 4. Some of us even saw this with Brawl and Melee.

Keep expectations low. I mean it. We're at the endgame.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I just hope music theory can die after today.

Because even without Vergeben, assuming we wouldn't get a new Pokemon rep is just silly.

Yeah. Pokemon is so far the only franchise to get a newcomer in every single smash game...
I don't want this game to be any different...

 

[Luigi The President]

Yes. I believe the rest of the Ryu clones are too different to be echoes.

...I am confused? That is not my question. My question is, if people are now doubting a Gen 7 Pokemon, do they now by extension doubt Ken?

 

[ubiblu]

Genuinely it seems people have gone 100% with the "LOWER YOUR EXPECTATIONS" mindset and refused to even ENTERTAIN the concept of their "very few if beyond 2 newcomers" theories taking a dent.

Life is full of disappointment. Best to temper expectations and be pleasantly surprised. There are so many theories with legitimate grounding at the moment (Blog Theory; Music Theory; Box Theory; Chair Theory) that its become difficult to fully agree or disagree with any of them. You are right though: refusal to entertain one over another, or worse, getting mad about it, is a tad silly at this point.

 

[Jigglymaster]

I do think that people need to lower their expectations.

There's a reason a lot of the old guard are saying that.

It's because we've seen this happen with Smash 4. Some of us even saw this with Brawl and Melee.

Keep expectations low. I mean it. We're at the endgame.

As somebody who's been here since the Brawl speculation days. I can say that fans were outraged and upset by both Brawl and Smash 4's final base rosters.

 

[PolarPanda]

I don't think Gematsu said Chrom was planned. They said Chrom was playable.

After the game was released, Sakurai said that Chrom was planned but a unique moveset made him feel kind of lackluster so he went back to the drawing board and chose Robin instead.


Also, I watched Alax's video on the whole blog theory, I've read the document but I'm still under the impression that blog theory rests on the assumption that characters are revealed all the way until the end (2.9 average, so 6 characters left as there are also veteran blog posts to cover still) . However, I had two people say that wasn't the case yesterday. So what's the deal-o? Does blog theory just assume they will reveal characters up until the release date or not?

When fighters are revealed, they are spread out across weeks. The august direct revealed 5, and the final fighter from the august direct (Chrom was the last posted, correct me if I'm wrong), wasn't until the end of the following week. Blog theory does not specify which fighter post needs to be the last. It doesn't have to be the final newcomer. Blog theory just determines the likely range of fighters that would fit remaining fighter posts needed for the time. 2 bare minimum, 8 tops. 4-6 goes around as being the absolute most likely.
Alax kinda exaggerated on that. Fighters could be revealed mid or early november and they could just take up 2 weeks, and then the remaining veterans could take up the final fighter posts.

 

[Z25]

The fact that everyone and their grandmother think it's Geno and Every leaks ever since the game announcement put Geno in. Actually makes me think It won't be Geno because at this point you would think it's such obvious that there no reason to hide it beside SE own security measures.

So I'm like "meh" he's probably the one with the most chance realistically.
Like, the fact that he's here too much makes me think we will get really surprised with that SE rep. I still Hope for Eight/Erdrick from Dragon Quest, and my guilty pleasure would be Crono (and Sora but I don't want people to throw a fit. He's becoming Goku tiers with the discussion here.)

Like...if you can make a Miracle with Square-Enix, you don't put Cloud to follow with Geno.
There no pattern or whatever but...it feels wrong, like, kiiiiiinda anticlimactic?

I mean it could still be Geno. Just because everyone and their mother predicted Geno after Ridley and k rool doesn’t mean actual leakers would want to confirm. Geno could still be wanted to be kept under wraps even if everyone is predicting him.

So the recent music track is the from Pokemon called “Battle (Steven)”.

It’s a little surprising that they took something from Gen 3 as it is from Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby.

I guess the Music theory isn’t the end to be all since a Gen 7 Pokémon is still most likely happening. Imagine a Gen 3 Pokémon gets in instead.

Well it’s good to have Stevens theme in this.

So unless you all now wanna change your mind and tell me that Incineroar isn't coming, this means that a franchise getting music before a reveal from said franchise deconfirms nobody. RIP Music Theory.

Nah Incenroar isn’t coming. This clearly means that the newcomer is grovyle and he’s reping mystery dungeon just like I always wanted him to

 

[Midget Master]

Genuine question (sincerely, hope I don't sound rude);

People suddenly suspecting Verge could be wrong...what about Ken?
Do you believe the Ken leak or no?

Personally, I very much believe that Ken leak. I also am willing to hang my hat on Vergeben's info to the point that I think if something contradicts him, it's probably not worth putting a ton of stock in. In my mind, Ken and Incineroar are virtual locks - the only question is whether there's anything else. The much-ballyhooed Square rep could be DLC, Steve is easily the second most controversial box in the room, and there's basically just a whole lot of stuff we don't know.

 

[CosmicQuark]

I don't think Gematsu said Chrom was planned. They said Chrom was playable.

After the game was released, Sakurai said that Chrom was planned but a unique moveset made him feel kind of lackluster so he went back to the drawing board and chose Robin instead.


Also, I watched Alax's video on the whole blog theory, I've read the document but I'm still under the impression that blog theory rests on the assumption that characters are revealed all the way until the end (2.9 average, so 6 characters left as there are also veteran blog posts to cover still) . However, I had two people say that wasn't the case yesterday. So what's the deal-o? Does blog theory just assume they will reveal characters up until the release date or not?

I'm not going to claim to know the intricacies as described by Alax's video, only that after the August Direct I had a similar thought and did less fancy math to try to figure out how many characters I should expect. For me, it was always a maximum. *If* the blog is consistent with an average of 3 characters per week, and *if* it continues to the final week, the maximum we could expect is around 7-8 characters, which also fits with how many characters we got between June and August.

 

[Deleted member]

To be honest, I rarely do this as to not jinx myself but, I'm 100% believing in Verge here so I very much consider it dead. If I'm wrong, throw pie in my face.

Gematsu wasn't live. Gematsu was posted before E3, and then absolutely zero update until the next year. That's practically an entire year of development.
Vergeben is real-time. His information is up-to-date as he has real-time sources and updates us consistently.
IDK I just find this different.

I get that, but just looking outside Smash for a bit and at leaks in general with Nintendo stuff, there were lots of credible leakers that ended up misinformed on one thing or another:

*LKD was right about a lot, was wrong about a lot.
*Emily Rogers was right about a lot, was wrong about a lot. MOTHER 3 ; - ;
*Liam Robertson has been right about a lot and has also been wrong about a lot.

The thing is, I'm not saying Vergeben is wrong. But there is no objective, ironclad, unarguable proof that he can't get something wrong. I personally think Verge is right too, but I don't believe he's perfect and incapable of getting something mixed up, wrong, or having misinformed sources. Another thing too is none of us know for sure who his sources are or where they come from, how much info they have access to, and if he has as many as he's saying he does. All we have is his word, and while I personally believe him, that doesn't make it impossible for him to get something wrong. Maybe it's Incineroar, maybe it's Ken (even though I doubt that), maybe it's the MC content or SE rep, who knows? All we have is speculation and fan theories. We'll have to wait and see.

Of course, that's just my two cents on the matter. For all I know, the Box is all knowing and Verge is one of the best leakers we've ever had. To each their own.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

As somebody who's been here since the Brawl speculation days. I can say that fans were outraged and upset by both Brawl and Smash 4's final base rosters.

And then we grow to love all of them.

We're a fickle bunch.

 

[Zinith]

I just hope music theory can die after today.

Because even without Vergeben, assuming we wouldn't get a new Pokemon rep is just silly.

There's a first for everything...

 

[kylexv]

Music Theory was killed by a pretty bangin' remix.

Cool.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Hey guys I have a theory
None of the theories are true
The music Theory isn't true
the blog theory isn't true
The box theory isn't true...
For all we know Sakurai deliberately set up these theories just to crash them down soon after, just so he can mess with our minds (had this even crossed your mind yet?)
He's a madman I tell you, a Madman! (This is why I hate overspeculation...)

 

[NintenRob]

I don't think Gematsu said Chrom was planned. They said Chrom was playable.

After the game was released, Sakurai said that Chrom was planned but a unique moveset made him feel kind of lackluster so he went back to the drawing board and chose Robin instead.


Also, I watched Alax's video on the whole blog theory, I've read the document but I'm still under the impression that blog theory rests on the assumption that characters are revealed all the way until the end (2.9 average, so 6 characters left as there are also veteran blog posts to cover still) . However, I had two people say that wasn't the case yesterday. So what's the deal-o? Does blog theory just assume they will reveal characters up until the release date or not?

That's not necessarily true.

Blog theory could have every newcomer revealed in October, but they could just have veterans to fill in November.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Hey guys I have a theory
None of the theories are true
The music Theory isn't true
the blog theory isn't true
The box theory isn't true...
For all we know Sakurai deliberately set up these theories just to crash them down soon after, just so he can mess with our minds
He's a madman I tell you, a Madman!

As I've noted previously, the only theory I truly believe is the Sakurai Theory--Sakurai does whatever he wants regardless of our silly theories. None of the recent events conflict with it, so it's lookin' pretty good.

 

[Fenriraga]

There's a first for everything...

True, but Pokemon is a BIG appeal to a lot of casuals to play Smash. Like, moreso than any other series, even Mario.

It's also the only series to always get a newcomer. Again, even Mario can't match that.

First time for everything, sure, but that doesn't make it likely.

 

[Jigglymaster]

Well anyways, unlike what everyone else is saying about the music theory being "dead". It will be an interesting to see how things play out now that they contradict each other. At least one of them is wrong, clearly. It shakes things up a bit.

 

[Pyra]

Had a really really bad moment today

Then I checked the blog post and the fact it's a Pokemon song


Suddenly I feel a liiiiittle bit better.

 

[Waluigi is not getting in]

Music theory is officially dead! Bring on Skull Kid you sons of........

 

[PushDustIn]

Sakurai himself said they would announce every character before the game released, so there's that.

Yeah, I get that. It's just blog theory rests on the assumption that it'll keep that average up until release. I think they will announce all the characters at least 2-3 weeks before release as they have to get ahead of the game actually just leaking (broken street dates).

When fighters are revealed, they are spread out across weeks. The august direct revealed 5, and the final fighter from the august direct (Chrom was the last posted, correct me if I'm wrong), wasn't until the end of the following week. Blog theory does not specify which fighter post needs to be the last. It doesn't have to be the final newcomer. Blog theory just determines the likely range of fighters that would fit remaining fighter posts needed for the time. 2 bare minimum, 8 tops. 4-6 goes around as being the absolute most likely.
Alax kinda exaggerated on that. Fighters could be revealed mid or early november and they could just take up 2 weeks, and then the remaining veterans could take up the final fighter posts.

I think once the new mode is revealed there will be some blog posts will focus on that that might take place of the fighter posts. Also, they are behind in AT and Stages posts.

 

[WallyPalmer]

Hey guys I have a theory
None of the theories are true
The music Theory isn't true
the blog theory isn't true
The box theory isn't true...
For all we know Sakurai deliberately set up these theories just to crash them down soon after, just so he can mess with our minds (had this even crossed your mind yet?)
He's a madman I tell you, a Madman! (This is why I hate overspeculation...)

18 newcomers lets GOOOOOO

 

[PushDustIn]

That's not necessarily true.

Blog theory could have every newcomer revealed in October, but they could just have veterans to fill in November.

I get that. It just assumes it won't slow down or change course.

 

[AreJay25]

You know, it's weird. Just yesterday, I was thinking it'd be hilarious if they just decided to post a Pokemon song to throw a wrench into everything.

And then they actually ****ing did it.

 

[monadoboy]

As somebody who's been here since the Brawl speculation days. I can say that fans were outraged and upset by both Brawl and Smash 4's final base rosters.

Reading stuff like this makes me glad I didn't frequent forums back then. I was so happy with the Brawl roster.

 

[Zinith]

True, but Pokemon is a BIG appeal to a lot of casuals to play Smash. Like, moreso than any other series, even Mario.

It's also the only series to always get a newcomer. Again, even Mario can't match that.

First time for everything, sure, but that doesn't make it likely.

Sakurai could just as well feel that Pokemon is sufficiently represented by what it has right now (the number already exceeds Mario's amount after all). Of course, that may not be true, but it is something to consider if things end like that.

Some of the bigger franchises need to learn to be humble sometimes

 

[Waluigi is not getting in]

Everyone is talking about all of these theories but... the furniture theory has yet to be debunked

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Umm.. guys... Could our final roster be Geno and Ken?

Everyone is talking about all of these theories but... the furniture theory has yet to be debunked

Don't even get me started... (I'm already more stressed out than I should be)

 

[LetterO]

Hey guys I have a theory
None of the theories are true
The music Theory isn't true
the blog theory isn't true
The box theory isn't true...
For all we know Sakurai deliberately set up these theories just to crash them down soon after, just so he can mess with our minds (had this even crossed your mind yet?)
He's a madman I tell you, a Madman! (This is why I hate overspeculation...)

But you know what's still a thing?

COLOR THEORY IS STILL IN THE GAME BABY!!!!

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Reading stuff like this makes me glad I didn't frequent forums back then. I was so happy with the Brawl roster.

Gotta remember, a lot of people thought that the roster was going to be 45 or 50+, with Ridley, Mega Man, Geno, Isaac, and tons of other characters.

And then we got this guy?

This meme was made for a reason.

 

[Deleted member]

With the reveal of the music track today being the battle vs Steven from Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire, we are that much closer to the reality of Gardevoir being added in along with a Gothitelle echo...

 

[Shroob]

Everyone is talking about all of these theories but... the furniture theory has yet to be debunked

No more chairs.


No more chairs.

 

[alemerltoucanet]

Genuine question (sincerely, hope I don't sound rude);

People suddenly suspecting Verge could be wrong...what about Ken?
Do you believe the Ken leak or no?

I think the Ken leak might be real. I mean, it seems like it due to all the specific details that you can uncover from it.

 

[Spinosaurus]

If music theory holds, then the only plausible newcomers left are Elma and or are from unrepped franchises.

And that seems mighty sketch, to me.

 

[Polan]

i am shocked, SHOCKED that the music theory is a load of ****e. Totally unprecedented that a random theory from the fanbase is wrong.

 

[MainJPW]

Everyone is talking about all of these theories but... the furniture theory has yet to be debunked

Everyone's sleeping on the furniture theory tbh.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

But you know what's still a thing?

COLOR THEORY IS STILL IN THE GAME BABY!!!!

So....
Blue: Geno
White: Chrous Men
am I missing any?

 

[hposter]

Gotta remember, a lot of people thought that the roster was going to be 45 or 50+, with Ridley, Mega Man, Geno, Isaac, and tons of other characters.

And then we got this guy?

This meme was made for a reason.

R.O.B.ley is cute, not gonna lie

 

[Fenriraga]

Umm.. guys... Could our final roster be Geno and Ken?


Don't even get me started... (I'm already more stressed out than I should be)

I mean, if we're going by music theory, then Mario has already gotten its song, like Pokemon. Unless Geno were to get his own series icon.

Honestly hard to say anymore.