Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I updated my little guide thing...

Red = Disconfirmed (I know Lycanroc, Decidueye, and Mimikyu aren't official)
Orange = Very unlikely
Yellow = Better odds
Uncolored = Our most likely options imo. (I updated to include more)

What's the thoughts this time?

Quite a few are questionable

Incinoroar and zeraora is the only good one of the uncolorede

Poipole why? The only thing I can think of it's considered ashes first ever legendary pokemon

And what's with golisopod as possible?

 

[Enchess]

I seen more people claiming no cuts was a pipe dream and that cuts just had to happen, and talk of who would get cut was extremely prevalent. There were people who certainly thought there would be no cuts, I myself did, but it is straightup revisionism to claim that it was the very common "safe" belief, especially before Vergeben and Emily made their statement about the lack of cuts, and after their statements I argued several times that no cuts could happen with people dismissing Vergeben because they adamantly claimed it was "unrealistic".

As I said in an earlier post, avoid falling into the trap of dismissing anything a supposed leaker gets right as being "safe and obvious" like people kept doing with every non-WFT character Gematsu got right, especially when the amount of people predicting it was certainly less than 50%.

I'm not saying everyone agreed with no cuts. It's revisionism to say it was a bold guess though. It may not have been 50% of people, but it was certainly more than 25% of people. It's in the same category of Isabelle now: a common prediction that Verg made after a sizeable group was already saying it. It's the reason why Isabelle confirmed would add nearly nothing to his credibility. She's a popular fake leak.

 

[osby]

Also I think I do have a sort of interesting thing that I don't think people have talked about here concerning Loz18.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76703142

They apparently said on this thread that Wavedashing is still a thing in Smash Ultimate and that there may be a story mode... They are certain that there is a tournament bracket as well.

I dunno if we should take this with a grain of salt, but Loz18 is the only person who's seems to be having the best credibility when it comes to leakers. Even though Vergeben is the more popular of the two (and the less accurate as well)

This sounds like wish fullfillment. Biggest dreams of casual and competitive players. Wasn't wavedash deconfirmed hard?

 

[cmbsfm]

From GameFAQs user MeepleLardicle:

So looking at Resetera's topic on this, someone found that Verge is not the first person with "repute" to mention that Simon Belmont was going to be in Smash.

Stealth_ beat him to the punch here, 19 days before Verge's initial leak. Proof?

This is Verge's Initial leak:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-for-nintendo-switch/76614511

Date is 5/16/18

Stealth_'s tweet talking about Simon Belmont?

https://twitter.com/Stealth___/status/990018281930199040

Dated: 4/27/18

As a reminder, Stealth_ has a fair number of followers, and he even uses that as proof towards his credibility. I mention that because it suggests a lot of people see what Stealth_ has to say, and remember, he's gotten enough notoriety that other big Youtubers (like Roger's Base) treat him as something special and meaningful.
It's also worth noting that Stealth_ is full of ****, as anyone can tell you, and begs the question WHY he has a "positive" reputation in many circles. Yes, he's full of crap, but there's plenty of people who still think he's legit for some reason, hence "repute".

So why is this important? Because this is not the only time Stealth_ said something before Verge that didn't get substantiated, that Verge "leaked" as well.

And fittingly enough, it was ANOTHER Castlevania related leak, namely Stealth_ tweeted that there's talks of a Castlevania Compilation in the works before Verge said anything about it. I don't know the sources of these, but I definitely remember looking this up, and the first time Verge said this was predated by Stealth_.

Verge had one other Castlevania leak which was a re-release of Castlevania Rebirth on the Switch, except THIS was rumored all the way back in January, long before Verge said anything.

IOWs, Verge has not a single piece of information pertaining to Castlevania that originated from him, and 2 of the sources are from Stealth_.

I hate being someone who draws attention to Verge, but I feel like this is something that has to be drawn attention to, in some capacity, and I didn't want to make a whole topic, but couldn't think of a proper way to do this without feeling forced so went **** it, here you go.

What do I take from this?

I think the theory brought up by the MvCI Subreddit that Verge is merely someone who hears about Industry Gossip 2nd hand and treats everything he hears as a leak has further evidence. With someone like Stealth_ claiming to have insiders and being a big name (even though he's time and time again shown to be full of crap), and "rumors" that people heard about not coming true, and things he's gotten wrong, yet having SOME Things right, it only makes sense that he's compiling a lot of industry gossip he hears, but doesn't recognize the difference between "gossip" and "actual leaked info."

So anyone who says "Simon Belmont was original to him", this is something to keep in the back of your mind. Yes, there have been a handful of other (not a lot granted) fake leaks that had Simon on them before him, but here we have someone who Verge has had info match up before with in the past, and someone who is really good at faking **** to the unknown.

Interesting. I’m not holding it against Verge though. Could be same source or different source who heard the same thing.

And it’s also from Stealth who’s even more shaky than Verge

 

[Mc.Rad]

This sounds like wish fullfillment. Biggest dreams of casual and competitive players. Wasn't wavedash deconfirmed hard?

Well he did say that the part was pending... So I have no ideal if it was just a demo thing or whatever that was stopping people from Wavedashing... It could the reason why Arial Dodges were reported to cancel knockback velocity I think???

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I need to backtrack a little. I googled the leak and read 3 articles and all credited him, but his own post acknowledged someone else leaked it first. So really if this is false it wouldn't just be a hit to his credibility, it would suggest he's bandwagoned before.

https://www.reddit.com/r/starfox/comments/8icu31/since_the_fox_is_already_out_of_its_hole_thanks/

Watch as it ends up being an actual F-Zero game instead lel

...I wish

 

[Enchess]

Wavelanding is super easily mistaken for wavedashing. Idk anything about loz, but unless he's a competitive Melee player I would actually consider that a point for him, not against him

 

[Mc.Rad]

Watch as it ends up being an actual F-Zero game instead lel

...I wish

I'd honestly be ok with An F-Zero X Star Fox game since the series always mingles with each other. James Mc.Cloud is literally in F-Zero X and GX and Starfox Command not only has Octoman, but an ending where Falco and Fox become F-Zero racers

 

[Omega Tyrant]

I'm not saying everyone agreed with no cuts. It's revisionism to say it was a bold guess though. It may not have been 50% of people, but it was certainly more than 25% of people. It's in the same category of Isabelle now: a common prediction that Verg made after a sizeable group was already saying it. It's the reason why Isabelle confirmed would add nearly nothing to his credibility. She's a popular fake leak.

I doubt over 25% of people were predicting it, I seen much more people claiming it was unrealistic and talk of who would get cut happened everywhere all the time under the assumption that some characters had to get cut, but regardless going by a numbers game, banking on something 25-50% of people are predicting and thus being more likely to be wrong than right based on the speculative numbers game is not a "safe" guess, that is a definitive risk to put on your leak. It's not a cinch to his credibility like WFT was to Gematsu, it was certainly able to be predicted, but it's undeniably a point of credibility towards him and to dismiss it as otherwise is falling into the extreme end of revisionist skepticism.

 

[dezeray112]

So he's now stating it's Isabelle, Simon, and a 7th gen that are in?

That's pretty much what he is claiming at the moment.

 

[Octavium]

Wavelanding is super easily mistaken for wavedashing. Idk anything about loz, but unless he's a competitive Melee player I would actually consider that a point for him, not against him

Canceling dash into any attack almost entirely replaces wavedashing to be honest, wavedashing was a spacing tool.

As for wavelanding, it would be amazing for it to slide off platforms.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Wait what!? It's not Decidueye, Mimikyu or Lycanroc?

Inciniroar then.

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/...n_the_gen_7_pokémon_character_is_not/e3kzjxk/

 

[Enchess]

I doubt over 25% of people were predicting it, I seen much more people claiming it was unrealistic and talk of who would get cut happened everywhere all the time under the assumption that some characters had to get cut, but regardless going by a numbers game, banking on something 25-50% of people are predicting and thus being more likely to be wrong than right based on the speculative numbers game is not a "safe" guess, that is a definitive risk to put on your leak. It's not a cinch to his credibility like WFT was to Gematsu, it was certainly able to be predicted, but it's undeniably a point of credibility towards him and to dismiss it as otherwise is falling into the extreme end of revisionist skepticism.

It's not a point against him, it's just not a very strong point for him. Lots of fake leakers piggyback off of things 1/4 of the community think. It gives the impression that the leak may be possible (since it's something everyone has heard quite a few times) while not seeming like a piggyback because it's not something wildly agreed on. This is the exact same point people have been making about Isabelle and non-Decidueye Gen VII. Both are frequently said so as to seem plausible, but infrequent enough to not be an obvious piggyback.

But ultimately I'm not even saying he's a piggybacker. I'm saying his unique predictions haven't come true, only the ones others were making (I'd give him at least Snake personally because I didn't see anyone else say that before Verg, but it sounds like some others did)

 

[Pakky]

Wait what!? It's not Decidueye, Mimikyu or Lycanroc?

Inciniroar then.

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/94gqms/vergeben_the_gen_7_pokémon_character_is_not/e3kzjxk/

Sad for Mymikyu but I support Incenroar as well so, I ain't even mad if this is true.

So I wonder if there will be a 2nd new pokemon at launch or are we looking towards DLC with someone from Gen 8?

 

[Deleted member]

Yeesh, this Vergeben stuff is getting downright silly. I guess he's gone from the "I'll just tell you who I think it is" phase to the "Here's some hints to who it isn't lul" phase. At this rate, I'm expecting him to post his own riddle/picture game leak, lol.

Honestly, I was pretty 50/50 about him after E3, but now...I kinda think he's just trying to get some attention. Like, it just feels like he's trying to mess with us for laughs and giggles at this point. I personally agree with what Sakurai said about leakers, they're all pretty much just in it for their 5 minutes of fame. :/

The only thing I think we can really say was an accurate leak from him was Snake. As far as I know (and please correct me if I'm wrong) the no Wii U cuts and Ridley stuff was being brought up weeks before his leak. Also, Ice Climbers are about as impressive as leaking Mario, lol. It was obvious they were coming back; the only thing that stopped them last time was technical limitations. If it weren't for 3DS and Wii U having roster parity, I honestly think Ice Climbers would've been in Wii U.

Just my two cents on the matter. We'll know soon enough if any of this is real anyway. The more info he shares are more chances for him to be wrong.

 

[SvartWolf]

2 pokemon reps is completely out of the question. if we get anymore, will be 8th gen dlc promotion.

If we get incineroar, watch how immediatly a good portion of Sceptile and Decidueye fanbases immediatley will migrate to whoever grass starter we get on 8th gen. :3

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Well Cloud did have one appearance on a Nintendo console before his announcement in Super Smash Bros (Kingdom Hearts Chain Of Memories On The Nintendo Gameboy Advance)! So he did qualify in sense!

Also! I can't begin to imagine all the internet drama, outrage/riots, and flame wars that would happen if Master Cheif were to be included in Smash Bros Ultimate (As well him being chosen as the Microsoft character rep over Banjo And Kazooie or any RareWare character that was on a Nintendo console)!

Also! If Microsoft wants Master Cheif to be in Smash Bros as a character! Then why don't they just do what Sony did and make their own Smash Bros fighter game (I'm extremely sure there has been a high demand for such a Xbox fighting crossover game to be made)!

Yet Cloud was called a Sony character and treated as an impossible joke all the same, and were insistent that another FF character would have to get in instead. Sakurai addressed the lack of Nintendo connection and people fixating on that during an interview about Cloud's inclusion, and said it was more important that the character has worldwide popularity. He also said he may have had reservations if Cloud was never on a Nintendo console in any form, but having reservations doesn't mean he wouldn't do it at all (he also had reservations about Corrin with the FE over-representation but added them anyway), and then said he we should just "forget about the console wars", overall indicating he doesn't as much about that sort of thing as Smash fans do.

 

[dezeray112]

Watch as it ends up being an actual F-Zero game instead lel

...I wish

The last F-Zero game I played was Climax back in 2005. It makes me wish that Nintendo would make another F-Zero game.

Anyways, I'm still not 100% certain whether there will be any Smash news tomorrow. But I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

[Pakky]

2 pokemon reps is completely out of the question. if we get anymore, will be 8th gen dlc promotion.

If we get incineroar, watch how immediatly a good portion of Sceptile and Decidueye fanbases immediatley will migrate to whoever grass starter we get on 8th gen. :3

For the sake of the gen I hope the next grass starter is at least decent, like Chestnaut.

Decideueye actually makes me upset in the games. All of those tools and no speed or bulk.

 

[SvartWolf]

The last F-Zero game I played was Climax back in 2005. It makes me wish that Nintendo would make another F-Zero game.

Anyways, I'm still not 100% certain whether there will be any Smash news tomorrow. But I guess we'll find out soon enough.

At least Nintendo tweeted the damn thing, so now there is s small chance there may be something... then again, what they were expecting to hype people watch for in evo might be a hype final... if nintendo wanted to reveal stuff at the end of big tournaments, they had plenty of chances to do it before.

the next grass starter is at least decent, like Chestnaut.

Decideueye actually makes me upset in the games. All of those tools and no speed or bulk.

Or contrary serperior, that thing is lit. still, decidueye stats were very dissapointing. he is too spread trying to be everything and failing miserably. seriously his decent special attack goes totally to waste, while the best option he have is... maybe using gigadrain? all of his best tools are physical anyways, meaning that if you want spattack, you probably want mixed attacker, but ghost and grass arent the best types for a mixer attacker.

Take 30 of its base special attack and shove it in any other stat and he become way better, 30 more base speed? he becomes a great pivot/trapper with his tools. Hp or any of the defenses? a great tank, or even wall. attack? now he can pack some serious punch.

 

[Deleted member]

Yet Cloud was called a Sony character and treated as an impossible joke all the same, and were insistent that another FF character would have to get in instead. Sakurai addressed the lack of Nintendo connection and people fixating on that during an interview about Cloud's inclusion, and said it was more important that the character has worldwide popularity. He also said he may have had reservations if Cloud was never on a Nintendo console in any form, but having reservations doesn't mean he wouldn't do it at all (he also had reservations about Corrin with the FE over-representation but added them anyway), and then said he we should just "forget about the console wars", overall indicating he doesn't as much about that sort of thing as Smash fans do.

Worldwide popularity is the important thing, but how popular is Halo in Japan or Europe? I'm genuinely curious. Mister Chef is an icon in the US, but I have no clue how big he is anywhere else.

 

[Pyra]

At least Nintendo tweeted the damn thing, so now there is s small chance there may be something... then again, what they were expecting to hype people watch for in evo might be a hype final... if nintendo wanted to reveal stuff at the end of big tournaments, they have plenty of chances to do it before.

Don't most of the reveals at EVO happen towards the end of everything anyway

 

[Idon]

Don't most of the reveals at EVO happen towards the end of everything anyway

Yup.

EVO Sunday is probably the hypest fighting game related event of every single year.

 

[Deleted member]

If we get incineroar, watch how immediatly a good portion of Sceptile and Decidueye fanbases immediatley will migrate to whoever grass starter we get on 8th gen. :3

I personally would prefer we get more non-starter Pokemon, TBH. Most of the Pokemon we have are the more "humanoid" ones. I think it would be cool to see more unconventional 'Mons, which is why I support the idea of Mimikyu being the 7th Gen rep.

On the topic of Cloud being in Smash, even if I haven't played much FF yet, I personally think it'd be cool to get Terra Branford in Smash, but that's just me.

 

[Mc.Rad]

Yup.

EVO Sunday is probably the hypest fighting game related event of every single year.

It would be nice to see an EVO Sunday reveal... I just think that the news would be saved for a Direct or something of that matter. Usually Nintendo Directs are kind of a catalog for what's to come in the Future. With E3 being about their blockbuster hits (except for in special situations like with the Switch's Conference where Super Mario Odyssey was revealed). I'm certain that the Direct will have Smash Bros as a small showcase and reveal near the end, but I expect a full on Direct near the game's launch like Smash 4 had. Most of Nintendo's marketing towards game reveals are to showcase them in these Directs anyways, so it wouldn't make sense to not save Smash news until a Fall Direct... unless if this is to appeal towards the more competitive audience. I expect that there may be more Nindies showcases as well along with the other games coming out and if SFGP is to believed, we may as well see it here before we can officially count it as dead.

 

[Impa4Smash]

For the Pokémon rep, two words:

Alolan Marowak.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

Smash 4’s final day of EVO continues and then concludes soon...rip to the past...and embrace the future this is...ULTIMATE!!!!

 

[Crap-Zapper]

For the Pokémon rep, two words:

Alolan Marowak.

You know what. That'd be pretty epic.

 

[UserKev]

I personally would prefer we get more non-starter Pokemon, TBH. Most of the Pokemon we have are the more "humanoid" ones. I think it would be cool to see more unconventional 'Mons, which is why I support the idea of Mimikyu being the 7th Gen rep.

I really oppose Zeraora for this reason. Its that one Pokémon I don't want ANYWHERE! near Smash. Its supporters are cool but the Pokémon its self is next level cheesy. I thought I was opposed to Decidueye but I would to take Deci over it in a heartbeat. Actually, Decidueye is just behind Incineroar as my only other exceptional gen 7 Pokémon newcomer now.

Zeraora, even its name is cringe. This Pokémon, my brain cannot comprehend. I just can't. Why?

 

[Zeox]

For the Pokémon rep, two words:

Alolan Marowak.

Alola gen 1 pokemons count as gen 7 pokemons?

 

[BrytonJ]

Okay now I kind of really really want Simon and Decidueye revealed in a trailer together.

For the... *sniff* for the sake of the posts... *a single tear*

 

[Omega Tyrant]

It's not a point against him, it's just not a very strong point for him. Lots of fake leakers piggyback off of things 1/4 of the community think. It gives the impression that the leak may be possible (since it's something everyone has heard quite a few times) while not seeming like a piggyback because it's not something wildly agreed on. This is the exact same point people have been making about Isabelle and non-Decidueye Gen VII. Both are frequently said so as to seem plausible, but infrequent enough to not be an obvious piggyback.

But ultimately I'm not even saying he's a piggybacker. I'm saying his unique predictions haven't come true, only the ones others were making (I'd give him at least Snake personally because I didn't see anyone else say that before Verg, but it sounds like some others did)

It isn't just about getting one "unique prediction" to be credible, it's about the cumulative, just by the nature of the game a legitimate leak is going to have things that individually some portion of people and fake "leaks" are going to have guessed, Sakurai doesn't make the bulk of the roster be WFT-like characters, and the likelihood of each successive guess being right without anything going wrong drops with each additional prediction you add. To put some hypothetical math to this, being generous with the "likelihood percentages" here, lets say ICs had a 98%, Ridley had a 80%, Snake had a 50%, and no cuts had a 50%, getting all of them right would be about a 19.6% chance of happening, and then it just continues building on top of that with each successive correct thing making it even less likely that it was just all guessed.

I'm still iffy about Vergeben and it is certainly possible he or his sources just guessed everything, there were some people who can legitimately claim to guess everything he got right so far before he came along like vaanrose, but just by the numbers he was a lot more likely to be wrong than right in the speculative game, so some credibility has been built up and each farther thing he gets right would be building more credibility on top of it.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

About the whole points towards and against Vergeben thing...can we just agree he hasn't gotten anything wrong about Ultimate yet? I think that's where you leave it for now. Once he does you can just throw him out if you want, and after the game is released we can see if it was a Gematsu situation or not.

Only him and that loz whatever guy have been correct so far right?

(And I guess Emily and Master of Hyrule but they didn't really say anything helpful...)

 

[Arcadenik]

Alola gen 1 pokemons count as gen 7 pokemons?

IMO It should count!

Alolan Meowth for Smash!

 

[P.Kat]

I really oppose Zeraora for this reason. Its that one Pokémon I don't want ANYWHERE! near Smash. Its supporters are cool but the Pokémon its self is next level cheesy. I thought I was opposed to Decidueye but I would to take Deci over it in a heartbeat. Actually, Decidueye is just behind Incineroar as my only other exceptional gen 7 Pokémon newcomer now.

Zeraora, even its name is cringe. This Pokémon, my brain cannot comprehend. I just can't. Why?

What about Zeraora makes it cheesy? As someone who wants Zeraora in the game, I just don't see it. I'm not gonna try to change your mind or anything like that, I'm just curious why you think so?

 

[Pyra]

I really oppose Zeraora for this reason. Its that one Pokémon I don't want ANYWHERE! near Smash. Its supporters are cool but the Pokémon its self is next level cheesy. I thought I was opposed to Decidueye but I would to take Deci over it in a heartbeat. Actually, Decidueye is just behind Incineroar as my only other exceptional gen 7 Pokémon newcomer now.

Zeraora, even its name is cringe. This Pokémon, my brain cannot comprehend. I just can't. Why?

all of those words and none of them actually explained what is so cheesy about it

 

[Deleted member]

I really oppose Zeraora for this reason. Its that one Pokémon I don't want ANYWHERE! near Smash. Its supporters are cool but the Pokémon its self is next level cheesy. I thought I was opposed to Decidueye but I would to take Deci over it in a heartbeat. Actually, Decidueye is just behind Incineroar as my only other exceptional gen 7 Pokémon newcomer now.

Zeraora, even its name is cringe. This Pokémon, my brain cannot comprehend. I just can't. Why?

Zeraora's design to me looks pretty cool and I wouldn't mind it per-say, but it would be kinda disappointing and expected, yeah.

Another Pokemon I'd be down for is Lycanroc. Even though Lycanroc's Dusk form has that humanoid appearance, I still think it would be unconventional enough to hold my interest, thanks to its design and fierce fighting style. It's probably the only one of the Lucario-esqe fighters I support, mainly because I feel like it would bring something new to the table despite appearances. I feel like Zeraora would just be another Lucario.

 

[BlueMagician]

Worldwide popularity is the important thing, but how popular is Halo in Japan or Europe? I'm genuinely curious. Mister Chef is an icon in the US, but I have no clue how big he is anywhere else.

Halo is pretty niche in Japan despite being one of the better known FPS series in Japan, and the series' golden age was when FPS genre had little presence in Japan. Even now FPS is limited to a few games. Master Chief is known to those who played the games but not to many other people.

Europe, I'm not too sure of, but they have an official championship series...

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Worldwide popularity is the important thing, but how popular is Halo in Japan or Europe? I'm genuinely curious. Mister Chef is an icon in the US, but I have no clue how big he is anywhere else.

Xbox has always notoriously sold terribly in Japan, and thus by association Halo won't be doing hot there, however that also means Banjo and any non-Steve Microsoft character also isn't doing any better in Japan the past 17 years.

 

[ZephyrZ]

My stance on leaks still is and always will be fake until proven real. Veggieburger has a lot going for him, but it's still not unimaginable for it to all be some huge fluke so far. And being able to say who the Pokemon newcomer isn't rather than who it is seems a little fishy to me. It's important for Simon and Isabelle fans to remember to hold your breath until actual announcements are made as nothing is at all guaranteed yet.