I'm pretty sure Verge mentioned he doesn't entirely trust his source saying to discount Geno and feels it may be biased.
Basically can you do me a solid favor Mega Bid and analyze Geno for me because I'm bored and would love to read it.
Yeah ok I can do that.
First, I’ll say my actual belief on Geno, which is something I’m sure you’ve heard a lot: he’s a spirit, so I don’t think he will be a DLC Fighter. Instead of stopping there, I’ll explain why I believe Spirits won’t be made playable.
I firmly believe that the DLC characters were decided AT LEAST a few months ago, and were at least discussed for a few months beforehand. I think this is proven by the Joker trailer. That thing has GORGEOUS animation, and as an animator myself, I can tell you that **** takes time. I’m going to say that thing had AT LEAST a month and a half’s work at the minimum, but probably even more. Joker has been planned for months, and I’m sure the same goes for the other characters. While they may have not began actually developing them since the base game went gold, Sakurai and his team definitely knew who they would be, which is also evident by Verg potentially knowing about a SE DLC rep since the summer.
Sakurai is a big fan of consistency. This is easily seen in the changes made to Link. Now that Link is his BotW incarnation, his bombs are changed to remote bombs, and his hook/claw shot grab (which he has had for four games) has been removed simply because Link never got the item in BotW. In addition, there is no costume for the Ocarina or Twilight Link of past games, probably just because they don’t have remote bombs.
Sakurai already had his system for Fighter Spirits in the game. Yes, playable characters have Spirits, but they can’t be equipped and don’t do anything. I’m very confident that if Sakurai knew who was going to be DLC, he would make it a note NOT to have them as a spirit as it would complicate things later on and lead to inconsistency.
You could argue “But Mewtwo and Lucas were trophies in Smash 4 and became DLC,” but I have two points against that:
1. The DLC wasn’t as well planned for Smash 4 and they probably didn’t know exactly who would be in beforehand, and the DLC was kinda of trickled out over time. In Ultimate they were confident in announcing the number of characters and the timeframe of release over a month before the base game even launched.
2. According to Sakurai, trophies took a while to develop. He’d probably be much more hesistant to cut a trophy someone worked on than what is essentially a PNG file that gives you certain modifiers.
Because of all of this, I am VERY CONFIDENT that the characters we have represented as spirits WILL NOT be made playable as DLC.
However, I’ll still toss you a bone and answer your original question.
If Geno wasn’t a spirit in the game, I’d be looking at him the same way I’m looking at Crono and Sephiroth: a fan-favorite that was deemed highly unlikely ages ago for various reasons that would surprise in a similar to Joker.
I guess I’d also put Sora in that same category to a lesser extent, although I also ignored him from the list because Verg said he wasn’t happening.