I see you all have a great discussion going on here. After reading for awhile I just wanted to put in my own 2 cents.
My Prediction is this
*Geno
1.Chocobo
2.Catalina
3.Steve
4.Mach Rider
5.Rayman
What I hope happens
*Geno
1.Sora
2.Banjo +Kazooie
3. Catalina
4.Shadow
5.Dixie Kong
Personally I dont think we can take Sakurai at his word everytime he speaks in interviews or directs. Yea they are good for reference, but the fact is, nothing is for certain unless it is officially announced. For example movesets can be thought of for any characters regardless if Sakurai seems the task difficult to do.
Also we currently know they at least have an idea of what characters or companies they would like to work with.
That being said, Vergeben who has had a good track record should be taken into account.
My theory is we will get a square enix representative, microsoft , ubisoft, Cygames, and another nintendo character.
-Square Enix-
Square Enix will be an exception. I strongly believe they will eventually get 2 representatives. Geno being the first, and a second one coming in due time. Unfortunately Geno will be the odd man out when it comes to the character, music, map package. The point im trying to make here, is that we will get him but his inclusion wont be like the other 5 established DLC packages. I would guess that he actually becomes an echo for the gunner mii fighter.
As for the second character, thats hard to pin point down. But I believe we have to look at what makes sense to them from a business and marketing perspective. The possibilities I can see are
SQUARE
1.Noctis
-While im not for this personally, I would not be surprised. For some reason Square refuses to let FF 15 die.
2. Sora
-Sora is possible, with Nintendo having a good relationship between both disney and square in recent years. (Ex. Wreck it Ralph cameos)
However I only see this happening if the switch gets any of the old KH titles or Kh3 ported over to it. Either way, with Kh3 coming out this is an excellent chance for promotional reasons. BUT, due to KH3 releasing so soon I doubt they maximize the benefits from his addition. The reason I think this is unlikely to happen is because there are potentially more hands in the pot when it comes to profit this dlc could bring in. Splitting profits 3 ways versus 2 might end up being what keeps nintendo away from Sora
3.Dragon Quest
I think the chances of this is a lot lower than what people give it credit for. Dragon Quest has no problem selling in Japan, however its not as popular out here in the west. DQ has been out here for years, but its success has declined over the years when you look at the sales. This isn't a fire emblem situation where they can use this to introduce it to western gamers.
4.Generic FF Monster
-Probably a Chocobo. As much as I want Sora in this game, my bet is on this. With hd ports all coming to the switch, no character best collectively represents FF and Square, is more recognizeble, and would bring some kind of marketing upside to their situation.
5. Tomb Raider
-Cant say I see this happening. With Tomb Raider being so tied up in movies and most of the games missing out on Nintendo Consoles over the past years Id say this is safe pass.
CYGAMES
1. Catalina
-I think Vergeben being one of the most credible sources we have right now makes this one a no brainer. This would pretty much be a Fire Emblem situation. I dont know much about this character, but Project Re Link looks amazing. This is a great opportunity to make a transition for western fans. Unfortunatelt I think she will be too much like the 200 fire emblem characters we have in the game.
Microsoft
1.Banjo+Kazooie
-I believe this choice is less likely than the latter, but it is the option im hoping for. I see this being a more likely option if the dlc release coincides with the release of an N64 Classic. And only if the N64 classic contains some trace of Banjo+Kazooie.
2. Steve
-As much as I hate to admit it, from the marketing side of things this makes sense. Minecraft has a huge following, its for the younger crowd much like the switch in general, and would probably guarantee sales among a larger base of people.
My problem with Steve is more personal than anything. I believe his character would be a "lazy" addition to the roster. Blocky art style that is easily modeled, choppy animations, etc.
Many of you will argue that he could bring interesting gameplay mechanics. While this is true, I personally cant see any building mechanic working without slowing down the gameplay too much.
What would be the ultimate solution is B+K as the character, Music from B+K, and a Minecraft stage.
Nintendo
One thing I have noticed on here is that many posters have made lists of all third party characters. Id be more surprised if we didnt get at least 1 Nintendo character.
1.Dixie Kong
2.Mach Rider
More To Come
Two things should be addressed in the next two years.
1.Echo Fighters
2.Sega
Its likely we will get more additions beyond the first year. But I cant help but wonder if there will be some new echoes in between some of these dlc packages. Might be asking for a lot, but to coin the term "echo" fighters and only add Ken,Simon,Dark Samus, Chrom and Daisy is weird to me. Im expecting 3-5 more echo characters.
As for Sega they feel a bit under represented compared to the other 3rd party characters that were already present in the game. Eggman being a bowser Jr echo, or Shadow being upgraded is what Im predicting