Thought I would post this here.
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I doubt Sakurai would go this direction with a Rhythm Heaven character, but it's still cool nonetheless.
I love Kevin's work. Definitely follow him on Twitter if you get the chance.
To call any recurring Nintendo character "scraping the bottom of the barrel" is bogus in all honesty.
We're far from running out of options.
Exactly. Smash is not running out of characters, fans are just unimaginative. Having an erroneous assumption doesn't make it true.
We did the same thing during pre-Smash 4, asking who was left and asumed that there's a small pool of characters that would have a shot and that Sakurai would never pick outside the box. I mean after all, he would totally include the expected Ridley, third Dee-Kay "rep" (god I hate this word, thanks speculah), Chrom, and 5th gen Pokémon, mostly Zoroark. Guess what? We got none of them and instead saw Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Robin, Duck Hunt, etc. All of which are solid choices that merits their spot. These are characters that most of us ruled out when we saw they didn't fit fictional criteria we made up based on fan-made patterns (remember when people thought there was a pattern that meant Krystal was in Smash 4?) and they all got in. Of the eighteen additions, only six were commonly predicted those being Little Mac, Mega Man, Palutena, Shulk, Pac-Man, and Bowser Jr. But the rest were seen as unlikely additions, most of which were reveiled or not talked about prior to their confirmation. Then came DLC which except for Mewtwo and arguably Lucas, wre sen as less than likely. We saw characters like Wolf, King K. Rool or Dixie Kong and Captain Toad as inevitable because of fan demand or "muh recency" and got three third-parties and one of the rare examples of pure advertisement in Corrin.
In speculation, we make the assumption that they are unlikely or impossible becuase they don't fit our expectation of what is the proper Smash character. We rule out characters lke Daisy, Pauline, Dillon, and Tails because they don't fit conventional wisdom but who is to say that Sakurai won't find one, two, three, or even all four of being worthy inclusions? I may not think they are getting in but unless there's a reason to believe that future installments won't allow the opportunity for a character to be reconsidered, like possibly characters without a future, one would be a fool to totally rule out someone base on past events. New game appearance allow for new opportunites to get in (and not just because it's a new showing).
Just because the traditional big-name characters like Inklings, King K. Rool, and Ridley are dwindling doesn't mean that the franchise is fixing to run out of steam. To do so implies that Sakurai is so unimaginative that he is getting desperate to include the last "worthy" characters before the impending Smashpocalypse, which is not true. Not to mention the Switch is an incredibly successful console that looks to be a renaissance for Nintendo and that means new opportunities for franchises to become just as beloved as our Mario, Zelda, and Metroid. Arms alone offers several potential playable characters, one that I would hope Sakurai or a new director takes advantage of in future installments. Maybe they won't be in the base game but they would be fools not to make Spring Man at least DLC.
The past game, and even more strongly this game, the speculation fan base have been paranoid about the impending Smashpocalypse when we reach the limit of the character roster and that even if Smash sells like gangbusters on consoles that moves like molases, that it's totally going to die this game. This of course ignore that if it were to perish, there would be serious internal problems within Nintendo.
When a farmer has planted a beautiful oak tree, he places the new seed elsewhere.
It's hard to predict the amount of newcomers when we don't really know the true nature of the game, like how much of it is derived from Smash 4? I don't mean as in it's a port, because it's pretty obvious by now that it isn't, but that doesn't mean it isn't borrowing more stuff from its predecessor than any past installment has done before. If it does borrow a lot of stuff then that's uncharted territory for us, not only in regards to predicting the amount of newcomers (and new content in general), but also as far as cuts go. If no or very few cuts are made do we really expect the roster to near the 70s? It seems like a bit of a crazy number, and it'd be very difficult to balance.
My guess would be ~10 newcomers, clones excluded, but that's purely a gut feeling. I think an ARMS character and Decidueye are very likely, and we're probably getting another 3rd party character too, but beyond that it's hard to say.
As for your second question, absolutely. I think this game is coming out at a fantastic point in the Switch's lifespan, it really can take full advantage of future releases to keep the console's incredibly strong momentum going. I'm expecting it to get continuous DLC for longer than Smash 4 did, although characters might not come out at as fast a pace seeing that a lot of Smash 4's early DLC were veterans and semi-clones, and we've kind of run out of those.
Interesting point there. I want to ask for those more into fighting games than I am, how often do pieces of DLC come out in intervals be it both free and paid?
Given that Geno of all characters was a third-party character who was not just considered but wanted by Sakurai, star-power doesn't really matter that much for third-parties and the assumption that a third-party has to be iconic to make it in doesn't work anymore.
Except that he didn't make it. Until Geno actually gets in, in no ways should this be used as an argument that Shovel Knight and Shantae are shoe-ins because of a bunch of fans screamed for them on the Ballot.