Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Wiziliz]

Which of the characters in this leak surprise you the most? For me, it's Banjo-Kazooie. I only expected the bear and bird to be DLC, if they got in. I've felt Mach Rider would be the retro rep for a while. Chorus Kids were in the Wii U game's code, I think?

 

[Peeton]

Does anybody actually have the Snapchat video? It seems illusive... is it even real????

 

[Zinith]

Which of the characters in this leak surprise you the most? For me, it's Banjo-Kazooie. I only expected the bear and bird to be DLC, if they got in. I've felt Mach Rider would be the retro rep for a while. Chorus Kids were in the Wii U game's code, I think?

I'm probably gonna have to agree and say Banjo-Kazooie...

 

[Untouch]

Does anybody actually have the Snapchat video? It seems illusive... is it even real????

No, snapchat deletes videos after a while.

 

[CheckmateChuck]

Which of the characters in this leak surprise you the most? For me, it's Banjo-Kazooie. I only expected the bear and bird to be DLC, if they got in. I've felt Mach Rider would be the retro rep for a while. Chorus Kids were in the Wii U game's code, I think?

Isaac, just because of how unbelievable it is for him to finally be likely. As a big fan of the series, I personally expected Golden Sun to end up with little more than nothing again this time around.

 

[Blu99]

Did he say that Incineroar is in though?

No, Bidoof is in as DLC

 

[Paperchampion23]

When you start having to come up with explanations like this is when I start finding even believable leaks really fishy.

And why are they sending unfinished background art to some outside company in the first place anyway?
Or, you know, flip a crystal around so it's facing in the opposite direction somehow! This is exactly like that dress! /s

I made a random explanation just for you. My actual stance on the matter is we don't know and probably never will.

If it's real, it's better to not over think why art changes. The background is the one detractor out of the MANY positives for this leak.

Somehow the leaker, if fake:

- Created 7 fully original, individual art pieces that blend in perfectly with the banner and are even layered behind other characters the way it has been for months. None of the 7 are inspired by any current art out there, as far as we can tell.

- Moved 40+ characters logically and similarly to the way the banner had been updated before, to accommodate the new 7. It even has placed characters in more logical locations (Mii's together, Jiggly in a less cramped spot, etc)

- Added new art for like 20 characters that were moved because their art was hidden behind other characters.

- All of this while not showing their good work at all (posting only a quick video and picture that shows the banner extremely fast). Yes, it could be a way to hide his mistakes, but he openly posted a background that is entirely different from the one we have.

- Having the leak have an actual, legitimate source for WHY it was made or leaked. The company is real, the person is real, the printouts they make are legitimate with the same process seen in the leak.

- Not only this but he leaked it on accident and hoped it could get the ball rolling.


It's either ALL of that if fake, or it's simply the background changed for a reason we can't explain and it's real.

See what I'm getting at? It's much harder to explain why it's fake, than why it's real.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Or there's the people who ignore the issues with the leak because they want it to be real, and the people who aren't willing to overlook said problems just because it'd be a good outcome.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And the people who want this to be real, but still seek out ways to debunk it to avoid being fooled.

As a side note, the "People want this to be true, so it can't be true" meme is another one that's completely off base. I know that's not what you're insinuating, but I've heard that particular argument far more often than is reasonable.

 

[Midget Master]

Which of the characters in this leak surprise you the most? For me, it's Banjo-Kazooie. I only expected the bear and bird to be DLC, if they got in. I've felt Mach Rider would be the retro rep for a while. Chorus Kids were in the Wii U game's code, I think?

I've kinda been going back and forth on this. Phil Spencer essentially gave the OK for Banjo and Kazooie to be in Smash, and sure you've still gotta hash out the details on that stuff. But isn't that actually a really strong starting point? Almost seems like it's just there for the taking. I guess it just comes down to whether Sakurai and co. considered them worth having.

Honestly, it's more the people that wouldn't be here that are surprising to me.

 

[DeniroSerafim]

I hate to bring this up, but blue black dress and white gold dress. Analyzing a bad photo isn't going to do anything. Colors get washed out which causes some things to get lost.

I could say the same thing about 30 points made for why people think it's real. People against it have not logically explained how this leak came into legitimate circulation if it was at all fake. The company and background is all real, and the leaker attempted to remove the only thing that allowed us to trace it back to where the pic was taken, and they failed.

Or are you telling me that someone masterfully created all of this hard work (creating new art, moving 40+ characters, creating new art for moved characters), decided to use their job to print it all, and purposefully failed to scrub out a name associated with the workplace, which allowed people to believe the leak even more after the fact?
That all of this was a massively intricate papertrail designed to let the internet catch the leaker?

Because that's some next level "thinking" right there and the alternative to it being simply real.

The company does not work with Nintendo and has denied having a current relationship with Bandai Namco. The leaker failing to remove their name is not proof that it's real at all, if they wanted the name to be hidden, it would have been hidden. And yeah, this is really well made, obviously. But everything associated with the leak can be done in photoshop and other editing software. You're acting like this is some Herculean task. Sorry, but it's not. I'd also just like to say, this leak could be real, and that would be great. But I'm not going to pretend that there aren't people out there that are willing to dedicate their time and effort into a leak like this, and I'm not going to pretend that there aren't major discrepancies that still haven't been explained like the unnecessary changes the background elements that have no reason to be altered, unless the teams goal was to actively make it look worse.

 

[Graizen]

Or there's the people who ignore the issues with the leak because they want it to be real, and the people who aren't willing to overlook said problems just because it'd be a good outcome.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And people that see errors caused by a pixelated image and think its debunking the leak

The company does not work with Nintendo and has denied having a current relationship with Bandai Namco. The leaker failing to remove their name is not proof that it's real at all, if they wanted the name to be hidden, it would have been hidden. And yeah, this is really well made, obviously. But everything associated with the leak can be done in photoshop and other editing software. You're acting like this is some Herculean task. Sorry, but it's not. I'd also just like to say, this leak could be real, and that would be great. But I'm not going to pretend that there aren't people out there that are willing to dedicate their time and effort into a leak like this, and I'm not going to pretend that there aren't major discrepancies that still haven't been explained like the unnecessary changes the background elements that have no reason to be altered, unless the teams goal was to actively make it look worse.

Ok master
Now please go and make this easy leak from scratch, we are waiting

 

[CantGetRidOfTheRidley]

The company does not work with Nintendo and has denied having a current relationship with Bandai Namco.

That's a different company, not the one the guy currently works at that might be working on it and hasn't commented at all on this.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Guys, I think I found a solid reason why people believe this leak is real...and it's pretty funny...

View attachment 172246
This proves one of my theories, people believe this leak because they have fan wanted characters, some don't even provide solid evidence in these comments, it's just 'If it hadn't had Shadow I'd think it would be fake', now that is kinda sad.

If this leak had Tails, I still wouldn't believe. At least that theory has been Comfirmed.

I'm just going to put this here...

View attachment 172247

Saw you got some flak with this so I just wanted to say yea you're right.

Obviously it's not the ONLY reason, but with as many holes in it that it has at this point (biggest being Vaanroose's and Omni's analysis of the background and how it in no way looks like what the background should be) if this leak had only Ken and Incineroar it would have been thrown out already by many, similar to those who hate discussing the box.

Similarly if the box alluded to 7+ more characters, people would be all over it despite the fact that it's just a mock up and anything can change.

Hype and dissapointment color people's bias on leaks/theories. It's why some (SOME not all, like people relax I'm not coming for you) people are going HMMmmMMmMMM idk :/ instead of yeah that's a huge inconsistency with the background.

Legitimately the only thing for me keeping it alive is this new weird item, which is a bad practice of trying to combine seperate leaks but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edit: Also people used insider info (such as Vergeben's SE rep) to disprove the box, yet people are actively denying insider info to disprove the Grinch leak. Once again should be telling.

 

[Paperchampion23]

The company does not work with Nintendo and has denied having a current relationship with Bandai Namco. The leaker failing to remove their name is not proof that it's real at all, if they wanted the name to be hidden, it would have been hidden. And yeah, this is really well made, obviously. But everything associated with the leak can be done in photoshop and other editing software. You're acting like this is some Herculean task. Sorry, but it's not. I'd also just like to say, this leak could be real, and that would be great. But I'm not going to pretend that there aren't people out there that are willing to dedicate their time and effort into a leak like this, and I'm not going to pretend that there aren't major discrepancies that still haven't been explained like the unnecessary changes the background elements that have no reason to be altered, unless the teams goal was to actively make it look worse.

Wrong, the company the guy USED to work (nearly 2 years ago, so it can't be the place where the banner was printed) for denied association. The company he currently works for has not at all responded besides confirming he works there.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

At least with this, we've gotten impressive revelations each day that keep the discussion going, rather than talking over a static box for several weeks on end.

I stand by the opinion that this is real and we'll know for sure immediately after the next character reveal (unless it's just Incineroar- then we all squirm). Each of the 7 new characters here makes (varying degrees of) sense- Isaac, Mach Rider, and the Kids had their series trademarks renewed, and IIRC they were notably early before they expired, which makes sense if they're about to utilize them with no other announcements in the near future, and Mach him/herself is further supported as the only reliable connection to the Vifam gun Sakurai used (and on a less absolute note, Isaac connects to the possible Growth Sprout item we've now seen). Ken is all but confirmed by the earlier leak, and I've already gone over that Shadow makes a ridiculous amount of sense and have been pushing him since [THE BOX] was all we talked about. Geno and Banjo both make sense as the final remaining 3rd parties, both as characters Sakurai has either directly mentioned int he past or even attempted to get in the game previously, and as mega-popular characters the fanbase has been clamoring for years over.

At this point literally all I'm concerned about is exactly whatever the hell the deal is with Incineroar. I know he's a heel, but is he cruel enough to lie to every insider? Don't take this the wrong way, I mean no ill will towards insiders (at least the ones who remain professional and tactful), but something very fishy is going on and I'm not sure what to think.

 

[Burb]

And the people who want this to be real, but still seek out ways to debunk it to avoid being fooled.

As a side note, the "People want this to be true, so it can't be true" meme is another one that's completely off base. I know that's not what you're insinuating, but I've heard that particular argument far more often than is reasonable.

I'd love for this to be real. 7 characters remaining > 2 characters remaining.

I just put facts before feelings when it comes to Smash speculation. My reason for thinking the leak is fake is entirely based on the facts for both sides. I do feel the fact that it looks like a wishlist is a point against it, but not a very strong one. The background inconsistencies and the sheer number of characters remaining are what kills it for me.

Geno and Banjo both make sense as the final remaining 3rd parties, both as characters Sakurai has tried to get in Brawl and Melee respectively,

Incorrect.

He said Banjo couldn't happen due to "adult issues". Not once did he ever say he actually attempted to get Banjo in Melee. Please do your research before making claims like this.

 

[Graizen]

Saw you got some flak with this so I just wanted to say yea you're right.

Obviously it's not the ONLY reason, but with as many holes in it that it has at this point (biggest being Vaanroose's and Omni's analysis of the background and how it in no way looks like what the background should be) if this leak had only Ken and Incineroar it would have been thrown out already by many, similar to those who hate discussing the box.

Similarly if the box alluded to 7+ more characters, people would be all over it despite the fact that it's just a mock up and anything can change.

Hype and dissapointment color people's bias on leaks/theories. It's why some (SOME not all, like people relax I'm not coming for you) people are going HMMmmMMmMMM idk :/ instead of yeah that's a huge inconsistency with the background.

Legitimately the only thing for me keeping it alive is this new weird item, which is a bad practice of trying to combine seperate leaks but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edit: Also people used insider info (such as Vergeben's SE rep) to disprove the box, yet people are actively denying insider info to disprove the Grinch leak. Once again should be telling.

Omni is a genius!
He saw alot of pixelated errors and said its inconsistency!
What a master

 

[JoyStar]

Speaking of the Snapchat, I just thought of something—has anyone checked Snapchat to see if the name is legit? I think you can search by name and I seem to recall someone saying the name wasn't on SnapChat.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Or there's the people who ignore the issues with the leak because they want it to be real, and the people who aren't willing to overlook said problems just because it'd be a good outcome.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

MY SWEET PAPOOSE.

WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN?!

I HAVE BEEN WORRIED SICK.

 

[vottiking]

I hate to bring this up, but blue black dress and white gold dress. Analyzing a bad photo isn't going to do anything. Colors get washed out which causes some things to get lost.

Artsy Omni succinctly answers your point.

High contrast differences show up in this Snapchat recording, see the left highlighted cloud by Artsy. If anywhere, it should also show up on the high-contrast cloud cluster highlighted on the right by Artsy but it doesn't. The dress thing had to do with color, this is about contrast.

The difference in these two cloud clusters alone between the official and leak proves that the leak uses a different background. Now, whether that means it's fake, I don't know, but it's a different background.

 

[Paperchampion23]

Speaking of the Snapchat, I just thought of something—has anyone checked Snapchat to see if the name is legit? I think you can search by name and I seem to recall someone saying the name wasn't on SnapChat.

Everything related to the user or the name leaked had been hidden or deleted, for obvious reasons

 

[Graizen]

I'd love for this to be real. 7 characters remaining > 2 characters remaining.

I just put facts before feelings when it comes to Smash speculation. My reason for thinking the leak is fake is entirely based on the facts for both sides. I do feel the fact that it looks like a wishlist is a point against it, but not a very strong one. The background inconsistencies and the sheer number of characters remaining are what kills it for me.



Incorrect.

He said Banjo couldn't happen due to "adult issues". Not once did he ever say he actually attempted to get Banjo in Melee. Please do your research before making claims like this.

How cute!
Facts?
Ok

 

[CosmicQuark]

Saw you got some flak with this so I just wanted to say yea you're right.

Obviously it's not the ONLY reason, but with as many holes in it that it has at this point (biggest being Vaanroose's and Omni's analysis of the background and how it in no way looks like what the background should be) if this leak had only Ken and Incineroar it would have been thrown out already by many, similar to those who hate discussing the box.

Similarly if the box alluded to 7+ more characters, people would be all over it despite the fact that it's just a mock up and anything can change.

Hype and dissapointment color people's bias on leaks/theories. It's why some (SOME not all, like people relax I'm not coming for you) people are going HMMmmMMmMMM idk :/ instead of yeah that's a huge inconsistency with the background.

Legitimately the only thing for me keeping it alive is this new weird item, which is a bad practice of trying to combine seperate leaks but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edit: Also people used insider info (such as Vergeben's SE rep) to disprove the box, yet people are actively denying insider info to disprove the Grinch leak. Once again should be telling.

But those who think it's fake also have holes as well. The guy worked at a company, but doesn't work there, but does work somewhere similar. This faker would have had to impersonate him and concoct this elaborate scenario, and pull it off without one minor detail (so far) being overlooked by him that would have conclusively debunked it. Whether this is real or fake, I have trouble believing either scenario.

 

[Wiziliz]

Do you think that the three cut characters will be DLC? Or do characters like Bandana Dee have a higher chance than characters like Monster Hunter?

 

[Amiibo Doctor]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BoC5NmIB5OD/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=uym8r9j0yads Don’t know if this has been talked about yet, but doesn’t the waterfall behind daisy on this look more like the waterfall in the leak than the one we’re used to?

Since people are bringing up about some inconsistancies in crystals and clouds that can't be written off by a bad camera and compression, what about the other details that the leaker got right about the background? Other areas that were obscured by characters that are right in the leak? Did he just guess right there? I think it's more likely the background had revisions since it was first revealed. Art revisions happen all the time. I think the most likely theory is not all the character art was done yet so placements weren't finalized, and when they finished the latest newcomers and added them they decided to make tweaks to the background as well, possibly to help them better contrast. (For example, the waterfall looks a bit more detailed in one of the blank images and not when the characters are added)

Another potential theory is the background shown at E3 and the background given to promo-people aren't the same and aren't intended to be. Basically the inverse of above, they have the blank background and touched it up to make it look more appealing on its own.

I WOULD LIKE TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE BACKGROUND MAY HAVE CHANGED FROM E3 TO NOW.
Putting it in caps since the #TeamFake seems to keep not noticing this important detail.

 

[Zinith]

Omni is a genius!
He saw alot of pixelated errors and said its inconsistency!
What a master

Dude...

I like you. I appreciate people who are passionate about characters as much as I am. And there's nothing wrong with believing in this leak.

But you're becoming a little passive-aggressive...

 

[Ura]

This is turning into a court case that even court cases themselves would be "This is turning into a real mess". We are in serious need of Phoenix Wright right now.

Ironic considering Ace Attorney hardly represents what real life court cases look like lol.

 

[The DanMan051]

Gotta love how we're mocking a professional graphics designer and insiders with actual track records because their statements and beliefs don't mesh with ours.

 

[gloop898]

I WOULD LIKE TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE BACKGROUND MAY HAVE CHANGED FROM E3 TO NOW.
Putting it in caps since the #TeamFake seems to keep not noticing this important detail.

Why would the background change though? It hasn't change at all since E3. And why are nearly all the changes in spots that characters are covering up? That seems a bit fishy. Is it possible it changes? Yeah, it's possible. Is it likely? Ehh.. no I'm gonna go with no.

 

[TheoreticalMyth]

I just woke up, nothing changed with the leak in the last 13 hours?

 

[Untouch]

That's a different company, not the one the guy currently works at that might be working on it and hasn't commented at all on this.

The problem is that this whole thing is based on an assumption that the company now works with Universal and Nintendo, when there isn't evidence.
It could be true, they've done work with other companies (that aren't Universal or Nintendo) but I don't want to believe a leak based on assumptions.

 

[Flyboy]

One thing I kept hearing is that Xander Mobus was given a massive list of fake names to announce so even he doesn't know the final roster. Does anyone have a source on that? I'd love to know who some of the fake names are. It's not really related to the Grinch leak, I just think it's a fun detail.

 

[Fatmanonice]

As others have said, there is a chance Inceniroar was a false flag to smoke out leakers too. The credible leakers who haven't completely clammed up during this whole fiasco are leaning hard into "because my source said so" when it comes to evidence that Inceniroar is in the base roster.

 

[Burb]

MY SWEET PAPOOSE.

WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN?!

I HAVE BEEN WORRIED SICK.

I was involved in the murder of loz18 last month. I may not be here, but I'm still making an impact nonetheless.

I've just been primarily using GameFAQs because Nintenzone/the old leak group thread is always in Waifu Emblem talk mode whenever I've tried stopping by. I wanna talk about Smash Bros, not that gacha nonsense.

The reason I'm in this thread is because I saw people mentioning me. Normally, prolonged exposure to the levels of optimism radiating from this thread would make my flesh melt like in Temple of Doom.

 

[Deleted member]

Day 3: Leak still not revealed to be a hoax designed to bring publicity for The Grinch.

 

[Untouch]

The weird thing is, Marina hasn't been proved to be connected to The Grinch either, so if fake they faker could have faked the connection to Grinch as well. Could ACTUALLY be an NDA thing though because they denied being connected to Nintendo but not Universal.

 

[Ura]

One thing I kept hearing is that Xander Mobus was given a massive list of fake names to announce so even he doesn't know the final roster. Does anyone have a source on that? I'd love to know who some of the fake names are. It's not really related to the Grinch leak, I just think it's a fun detail.

I don't think for one second that Nintendo doesn't have a foolproof measure to weed out the fake leakers by giving out false info to their employees.

The Xander case is a good example of that. Let false info go around the web and tell it to specific employees. When it spreads like wildfire, they tracked who did it and they're done for.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Dude...

I like you. I appreciate people who are passionate about characters as much as I am. And there's nothing wrong with believing in this leak.

But you're becoming a little passive-aggressive...

To be fair, though, it's really hard not to be when you come across an argument that strains credulity, as I've had to consider, and I've had to re-write my posts to try to be as polite in my disagreements as possible. In this particular case, I think some of the arguments Omni had were sound (macro details missing where characters hid them), while others strained credulity (look at that cloud, it looks funny; I could have whipped this up in about an hour). I try to give him the benefit of the doubt, given he knows his stuff, but I also can't ignore when someone says something completely bizarre and can't just give benefits out like candy.

 

[Cosmic77]

Morning everyone. How's everyone...?

Oh, we're still arguing about the leak. Great.

Welp, let's hope this thing gets killed today, because I sure as heck don't want to spend a weekend arguing with passive-aggressive people who've dedicated hours of their time just to prove why they're right.

 

[ChrisJamie]

I swear if the Grinch Leak turns out to be fake I will trust no leak anymore unless there is video of footage involved.