Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Graizen]

My god im tired of this.
People realy dont understand what PIXELATED IMAGE means.

IM DONE

 

[TMNTSSB4]

My god im tired of this.
People realy dont understand what PIXELATED IMAGE means.

IM DONE

uh...ok with pixels then

 

[vigneault.charles]

And they also presumably changed the background to be less accurate with the in game background?! Here's what bowser hide that the leaker don't got right.

 

[Mellowy Yellow]

Morning folks, anything new?

 

[CantGetRidOfTheRidley]

People keep saying that the leaker had to do this and the leaker had to do that and YES, the person would!!! But we have no idea if this is a group effort. Not only that but they could have been working on this ever since Isabelle reveal. With a group effort, this is actually relatively plausible.

Edit: In fact I wouldn't be surprised in Chadondorf was a part of it too. The Leaker/Leakers could just be very smart.

The idea of this being a group illuminati effort sounds even improbable than it being one person. Yes, it's possible for this to be fake. A lot of things are possible. But is it probable? Is it probable someone is going to go through all this effort just to make a fake smash leak? Even the other Smash leak I listed as an example, the rayman one, the creator got a lot of fame and started a youtube channel and following thanks to it. He got a ton out of all the work he put into his fake leak. This leak would require a LOT of work and wouldn't give the person anything in return, maybe even put them at risk due to impliciting a company and an individual. So is it probable someone would make this fake leak and for so many things to line up with it?

 

[SushiRoll]

All this crying and misery is exactly what the Grinch would want. Wether the leak is real or not, he already stole christmas in our hearts.

 

[ItsZant]

Morning folks, anything new?

Nope. Still 10 things going for grinch leak and 1 thing going against it.

 

[Untouch]

Someone please post the August direct mural so we can stop this “background changed” discussion. Theres an easy way to prove/disprove it, but y’all keep posting a bad version of an image we have a good quality version of.

 

[Rigumaro]

Omni is a genius!
He saw alot of pixelated errors and said its inconsistency!
What a master

Not only did he do a detailed analysis, he even provided the .psd files so that anyone can download it and check for themselves in Photoshop all those inconsistencies. He made very OBJECTIVE points, he's a digital artist and has a lot of knowledge, and he's definitely correct on his two major points:
1. There's not a reason for them to make those tiny changes in the background, they serve no purpose at all. Not to mention the fact that the changes only happened on parts of the background that were covered and had no reference, meaning the fake leak artist had to "guess" them.
2. Video compression or motion blur does not distort images that way. Video compression wouldn't make that huge part of the waterfall disappear. It is a fact.

I really wish this leak is real. Banjo & Kazooie have been my most wanted newcomers since Brawl. But my common sense wins over my passion this time, and as much as I'd like it to be true, I just can't believe this is a legit leak.

 

[NotLiquid]

If this is fake, then whoever faked the leak likely won't ever come out because if the person in the company is the one who made this he's going to be in a lot of trouble for jeopardizing the integrity of his own job. On the other hand if the person who faked this isn't the person people traced this back to, they've committed identity theft - which is much worse.

As an aside it's extremely convenient how much of a breadcrumb trail is left in these images that just so happen to lead back to a company that has had ties with Universal and Bandai Namco - yet not Nintendo.

 

[vigneault.charles]

Is it probable that in the empty battlefield, the one that should have been done from scratch all the big mistakes "The island who is even in the game battlefield, the left side of the battlefield, every crystal that was visible in a banner was there but Nintendo changed everything else. How probable is that Nintendo do BIG art changes at EXACTLY only the places that you couldn't see in the characters image.

 

[Mellowy Yellow]

Not only did he do a detailed analysis, he even provided the .psd files so that anyone can download it and check for themselves in Photoshop all those inconsistencies. He made very OBJECTIVE points, he's a digital artist and has a lot of knowledge, and he's definitely correct on his two major points:
1. There's not a reason for them to make those tiny changes in the background, they serve no purpose at all. Not to mention the fact that the changes only happened on parts of the background that were covered and had no reference, meaning the fake leak artist had to "guess" them.
2. Video compression or motion blur does not distort images that way. Video compression wouldn't make that huge part of the waterfall disappear. It is a fact.

I really wish this leak is real. Banjo & Kazooie have been my most wanted newcomers since Brawl. But my common sense wins over my passion this time, and as much as I'd like it to be true, I just can't believe this is a legit leak.

He and Smashified are still kind of idiots for making an outcry over the Banjo render.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Someone please post the August direct mural so we can stop this “background changed” discussion. Theres an easy way to prove/disprove it, but y’all keep posting a bad version of an image we have a good quality version of.

Alright, found it.

https://www.pidgi.net/wiki/images/6/62/Illustration_-_Super_Smash_Bros_Ultimate.jpg

Just as I suspected, the background behind Daisy is still exactly the same.

 

[Untouch]

If this is fake, then whoever faked the leak likely won't ever come out because if the person in the company is the one who made this he's going to be in a lot of trouble for jeopardizing the integrity of his own job. On the other hand if the person who faked this isn't the person people traced this back to, they've committed identity theft - which is much worse.

As an aside it's extremely convenient how much of a breadcrumb trail is left in these images that just so happen to lead back to a company that has had ties with Universal and Bandai Namco - yet not Nintendo.

Have we had confirmation that they have ties with Universal?
They aren't on their partners list. (Fox and Disney have ties but aren't on as well though).

 

[Flyboy]

I can't believe it took the Grinch for a large collective of people to finally talk about Marina and Smash. Just a shame it's not the Marina I wanted.

 

[Raspberry]

You know...this brings up an interesting thought: we've sort of been assuming the mural has been having characters added to it this whole time, and that they're doing that over a completed blank background, which would make a ton of sense if you had planned to add each character from the beginning. Of course you'd do that, as layers and so forth would help a ridiculous amount.

But...what if it's actually reversed? What if the entire mural was completed first, and characters were taken out of it so they could be kept secret?

Think about it: these aren't renders, they're drawn art. And many of them, quite a FEW of them, interact with each other. A notable example is Chrom, a character not revealed until later, is looking down at Robin, who was already there. This implies that the entire mural was planned and drawn all at once, to be a cohesive whole. That would be the easiest way to make sure the style and forms meshed together correctly, and also that the background would be the right size for everyone to fit correctly when it was done. I daresay it's the only way you could do that, but I won't say that's definite.

Either way, this could explain why the background is inconsistent--they drew the mural directly onto it, and after cutting characters out, they had to edit it to fill the spaces.

This is a bit reachy, I know. And I'm also aware that many pieces of art are also used for the cover art, which would suggest they were drawn separately. But it's possible those were cut out specifically for the boxart. I just find it odd to consider the mural characters were drawn completely separate, especially when you've got things like Wario and Dedede reacting to PT, and Dr. Mario checking G&W's vitals.

Usually I stay away from background discussion...but I thought I'd throw this in to see what you all think. It's got holes, and I'm sure it'll be blasted apart. But I haven't seen anyone suggest this yet, so why not, for the sake of discussion?

God, this is some big brain thinking and it also sounds extremely likely. vaanrose - I'm curious to hear your opinion.

 

[Midget Master]

All this crying and misery is exactly what the Grinch would want. Wether the leak is real or not, he already stole christmas in our hearts.

I can see the rest of the arc, actually. Incineroar and Ken are all we have on Christmas morning, whereupon we are all still happy (this is a work of fiction) and joyously celebrate by playing and enjoying the game as it is with no complaints (extreme fiction). It inspires the Grinch's small heart to grow three sizes that day, and then delivers back home all the characters he stole as first wave DLC.

I'd watch it.

 

[gloop898]

My guy look at all of my other posts. The background is one simple detraction that can't be explained while there are like 15 other reasons for why this being fake is almost unlikely.

The background is the one thing fake-goers use to prove their point, while the evidence for it being real has like 10+ things, that if fake, all need to miraculously work together to have been convincing this far.

While the context around the leak is important, it doesn't add super strong proof. Yes, the person mentioned in the leak is real. Yes he does work at print company. But that doesn't mean the leak can't be fake.
The mostly likely scenario at this point is somebody who does indeed work at that print shop, made this fake using the resources there and then sent it out.
The print shop has no known connections to Nintendo or Bandai Namco or the Grinch movie. The person named in the leak has made a statement saying he has no idea what this is about. Industry 'Insiders' seem to have knowledge that counters the leak in some way.

But honestly all that doesn't matter. If there was a badly photoshopped shrek in the character list and everything else was the same it would still be fake. Because the images in question are fake. That's that. One solid piece of evidence that counteracts the leak kills it. And we have several solid discrepancies between the leak background and the e3 background. That's enough to show it's fake.

 

[Paperchampion23]

Someone please post the August direct mural so we can stop this “background changed” discussion. Theres an easy way to prove/disprove it, but y’all keep posting a bad version of an image we have a good quality version of.

Here:
https://www.pidgi.net/wiki/images/6/62/Illustration_-_Super_Smash_Bros_Ultimate.jpg

 

[skylanders fan]

another day and no straight answer yet it's looking better and better for this to be real

 

[The_Intruder]

My god im tired of this.
People realy dont understand what PIXELATED IMAGE means.

IM DONE

Yeah people don't understand a pixelated image can remove things that's are pretty clear even in pixelated image lol.
It's like being in denial that the background has so many fault on it and not just "changes" because these changes are for a worst result.

 

[Blu99]

https://youtu.be/C2faBO4RKH4

5 VIDEOS now from LaxChris on this one leak, the man has no shame.

 

[ToddCam]

The leak still has the ring of truth to it, so that's why I am still cautiously optimistic. I base this mostly on how elaborate a hoax it would have to be. It's a basic Occam's Razor scenario: whichever explanation requires the least number of assumptions is more likely to be true. Of course someone could do all these things to get a little thrill, and even do the attempted framing of an innocent man just because they are malicious. People are strange, and sometimes crazy, and often terrible. They're also dumb sometimes, and arrogant. Myself included.

I think it is fair to acknowledge we have biases. What makes us better is when we try and adjust for those own biases. One of my biases is that I tend to discount the views of anyone who reacts with 100% certainty in either direction. I'm going to interpret your words more skeptically because you are not allowing room for error. It's ok to be wrong sometimes.

Here's where I stand: Do I believe this leak? No. Do I disbelieve this leak? No. Would I like it to be true? Yes. Is the leak true? I don't know.

It's okay to say "I don't know."

 

[CosmicQuark]

The idea of this being a group illuminati effort sounds even improbable than it being one person. Yes, it's possible for this to be fake. A lot of things are possible. But is it probable? Is it probable someone is going to go through all this effort just to make a fake smash leak? Even the other Smash leak I listed as an example, the rayman one, the creator got a lot of fame and started a youtube channel and following thanks to it. He got a ton out of all the work he put into his fake leak. This leak would require a LOT of work and wouldn't give the person anything in return, maybe even put them at risk due to impliciting a company and an individual. So is it probable someone would make this fake leak and for so many things to line up with it?

Indeed. I really think a lot of people are brushing off the complexity and elaborate nature of this leak, that really is unprecedented. That isn't to say it makes it real--as I've said, there's holes on both sides, and some people are crazy. But whenever I try to think if something of this magnitude is real, I look at it from the perspective of Team Real and Team Fake, and try to think of the simplest scenario that fits. And really, the simplest scenario is this is an accidental leak, and the nitpicks really do turn out to be just nitpicks (doesn't explain everything, but certain behind the scene stuff we will never know).

uh...ok with pixels then

Let's not bring this into it.

 

[Deleted member]

What if the entire banner in this leak is just a photoshopped Little Mac

 

[FalcoXP]

morning everybody...

So its fake or not?

 

[ZephyrZ]

God, this is some big brain thinking and it also sounds extremely likely. vaanrose - I'm curious to hear your opinion.

Thankfully he already responded to that post. Here, I'll quote him for you.

I've always been under the assumption it was designed as a full banner and then characters were removed.

However, there's almost no chance they painted the mural finished without layers. You use layers even if you aren't planning on releasing a different version. The non-destructive workflow is the biggest thing digital artwork has over traditional artwork.

 

[Gentlepanda]

While the context around the leak is important, it doesn't add super strong proof. Yes, the person mentioned in the leak is real. Yes he does work at print company. But that doesn't mean the leak can't be fake.
The mostly likely scenario at this point is somebody who does indeed work at that print shop, made this fake using the resources there and then sent it out.
The print shop has no known connections to Nintendo or Bandai Namco or the Grinch movie. The person named in the leak has made a statement saying he has no idea what this is about. Industry 'Insiders' seem to have knowledge that counters the leak in some way.

But honestly all that doesn't matter. If there was a badly photoshopped shrek in the character list and everything else was the same it would still be fake. Because the images in question are fake. That's that. One solid piece of evidence that counteracts the leak kills it. And we have several solid discrepancies between the leak background and the e3 background. That's enough to show it's fake.

Precisely this. All the things going for the leak - however ridiculous - can be fabricated. But the background differences are real: we've been over them, we know they exist. I see that as being a hundred times more damning.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

I wonder if all these characters are on Big Battlefield and they took mini mushrooms so they could fit the stage for this group photo

Let's not bring this into it.

Forgot about that movie...and also never saw the movie other than the Duck Hunt clip...better Pac-Man than the one from Ghostly Adventure

 

[skylanders fan]

What if the entire banner in this leak is just a photoshopped Little Mac

no no no clearly there all just Smashified render of Banjo

 

[Mellowy Yellow]

Serious question: How the hell is Shadow able to swim?

 

[shinhed-echi]

I want her/him to keep an 80s feel. I'll be heaps happy with however their personality turns out to be, though!

That's a neat idea.
I find the 80s style to be my favorite. I'm not sure if she's likely to be portrayed that way, but yeah!
Maybe she could get a victory animation where she takes off her helmet, and does the hair brush off stance.

 

[Darkurai]

morning everybody...

So its fake or not?

Still inconclusive. Personally I call fake.

 

[Raspberry]

Thankfully he already responded to that post. Here, I'll quote him for you.

Apologies, I went through the new pages in a hurry and didn't see it, sorry for spamming.

 

[The DanMan051]

It also begs the question of who the **** makes commercial grade Grinch promotions for fun if we go along with the line of thinking that argues this is a giant hoax. That's technically a legal liability too if the person wasn't cleared by Universal to make them, given how they could be false advertising or used for bootleg products so, dear reader, that means for this to be totally fake that the person willingly showed off their work station where they make copyrighted counterfeits and... Do you see how convoluted this is getting? Again, the leaker is either a moron of legendary proportions or a chaotic evil nihilist if completely fake.

Who's to say it's for fun? The Grinch stuff could easily be legit and the guy's actual job; he clearly has artistic talent, so this could easily still be his job. He could've drawn up the Smash stuff in his spare time and then used the printing equipment for it when things were slow (people borrow the photocopier and stuff at offices for personal use; doesn't sound out there).

He and Smashified are still kind of idiots for making an outcry over the Banjo render.

He didn't say anything about it, the Smashified twitter account didn't say anything about it; it was one guy who had done a render for Smashified who ended up deleting his tweet.

 

[Ura]

Here's a poll I made in regards to the Grinch leak. I want to see how the community is feeling about all this and what percentage believes what.

https://www.strawpoll.me/16718692

 

[Burb]

Post edited for total accuracy, but don't try to hit me with that 'do research' crap. Him bringing up Banjo-Kazooie of all characters, and specifically saying it was for adult reasons they couldn't be included, directly implies some consideration was put towards it and an attempt was made that ended with 'no.' I know what he said, but it's clear what it implies.

Or it means he didn't bother to ask because he knew it wasn't possible.

With all the obvious characters that got snubbed from Melee and had to wait until Brawl, it's not really hard to imagine that Banjo-Kazooie was rejected from the get-go.

We're both assuming things, but my assumption is a little more in-line with what was said at face value. If you think Banjo was planned-but-rejected, that basically also means you think James Bond was as well. Is that the case for you?

It also begs the question of who the **** makes commercial grade Grinch promotions for fun if we go along with the line of thinking that argues this is a giant hoax. That's technically a legal liability too if the person wasn't cleared by Universal to make them, given how they could be false advertising or used for bootleg products so, dear reader, that means for this to be totally fake that the person willingly showed off their work station where they make copyrighted counterfeits and... Do you see how convoluted this is getting? Again, the leaker is either a moron of legendary proportions or a chaotic evil nihilist if completely fake.

Weren't the Grinch renders found, like, a full day ago?

 

[CantGetRidOfTheRidley]

Is it probable that in the empty battlefield, the one that should have been done from scratch all the big mistakes "The island who is even in the game battlefield, the left side of the battlefield, every crystal that was visible in a banner was there but Nintendo changed everything else. How probable is that Nintendo do BIG art changes at EXACTLY only the places that you couldn't see in the characters image.

I've listed before why those changes might be in. Again, art touch ups made in the past months, the blank background used in promos not intended to be the one used for the character art, and that's assuming it's actually not there and not absent due to camera oddities.

To appeal to a different line of reasoning for the validity of this leak. If this is fake, why doesn't ACP, the company implicited, make a statement saying it's fake? The other company saw fit to, and do you think any company, ESPECIALLY one that probably works with other very big companies with potentially confidential stuff, wants people going around saying they're a leaker and they've leaked stuff when they haven't? If this was fake and slander, the company would have their PR people already know about it tenfold. We're not dealing with some backstreet thirdworld gamestore putting copies of a game early on the shelf here, this is a big company that has protocols for this situation.

 

[mbvswb]

https://youtu.be/C2faBO4RKH4

5 VIDEOS now from LaxChris on this one leak, the man has no shame.

I can forgive this, if you only use YouTube as a source for Smash news you'd be in the dark about most of this debate.


Honestly, I'm in the middle but theres a lot of cockiness happening from Team Real all over here and Twitter.

 

[shaggypatriot12]

So for me right now everything about the leak seems really solid except two points:

1) The background discrepenices and
2) The original origin story for all this

Let me break down the issues I have with both of these points (keep in mind I have been Team Real the whole time, but these two issues are the ones in which I dont feel we have very solid counterarguments for).

Starting with the background: There are obvious changes made between the E3 background and the leak background, with which Team Real has been saying “they could have changed the background since E3”. This is very true, and no one can really fully deny this possibility. The question then becomes WHY would they change the background to be generally less appealing than the E3 background, and why are the discrepancies only in spots where there were previously characters in front? I personally have not seen a great argument as to why these changes would be made. Not arguing that they COULDNT have been made, but, if its real, why? In my own headcannon Ive been telling myself that because the background would be on a wristband and other small displays, as opposed to a gigantic E3 background, the details present in the E3 background not only would be unnecessary, but might actually make the image look worse when scaled down to something like a wristband than the less detailed background shown in the leak.

Any other thoughts on this would be appreciated.

My final hangup is with the original story itself. If Im not mistaken, the story goes that the snapchat video had screenshots taken of it, then those screenshots were posted to a discord, then those posted to 4chan, where they were found and went all over the place. Why hasn’t the person who actually saw the video and took the screenshots spoken up? With this blowing up like it has, youd think we’d hear about this person(s) and they could add some more credibility to this, but as is we kind of just have to take a 4chan user at there word that the images did come from video screenshots, and not from someone just making it appear that way.

Overall, this is the most fun/hype period in Ultimate for me (and I literally cried tears of joy when my boy Snake was revealed to be back) and I’ve been enjoying the forum a lot. But these are the two points that, while Im still Team Real, give me pause. In the back of my mind im being cautious about the veracity of the leak, but let me just end with saying if this is real, Sakurai has taken an already “All-Time great roster”, and propelled it through the stratosphere into “Greatest media crossover achievement of all time” territory.