So, nothing new since last night. Was hoping we'd see this thing leaning more towards one side or another, but it seems to still be stuck at 50-50. Well, in any case, there will be a Direct in November. I don't think there's enough time in December (since the game is released 12/7), so the final direct is coming. I suppose they could have one Direct on the Tuesday before release, but that's cutting it awwwwwfffuuuulllllyyy close.
Since the other directs were early in the month, I think we can expect it on either November 1st (Thursday next week) or November 8th (2 weeks from now). If it gives us Incineroar, Ken (with a pose that does not match the one in the banner), or any character/echo not mentioned by the leak, then the banner leak has received what is probably a killing blow (but of course, there will still be remnants defending it).
If the Leak gives us Mach Rider, Banjo, Issac, or Shadow, then I think we can count it as confirmed. I'm not going to include Ken and Geno in there as proof, however, since we are already aware of Ken (thanks to an earlier Moray Tower leak) and Geno is the most likely 'Square Rep' we've been told about, I don't think those two alone would confirm the banner.
Of course, the most hilarious scenario would be that the Direct comes and shows everybody wrong as we get a new Pokemon rep in Gardevoir followed by an echo, Gothitelle. I might not be able to stop laughing if that happens.