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Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

Almost one month has passed since release. In retrospect....

  • This is by far the best Smash ever. Like, I don't even know how they will top this.

  • Pretty freakin' good; I have a few qualms over things like internet play, balancing issues, etc.

  • It's ok, but [insert Smash game here] is better.

  • I'd rather play Parcheesi.


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DaybreakHorizon

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The difference is those insiders are "manipulated" by Nintendo while Papagenos has nothing to lose in that regard. Also I never compared both, I just mentioned that I personally trust papa. Another different thing is that his sources are wrong, but I don't think papa himself is lying, he doesn't seem to be that kind.
Of course. I completely trust papagenos papagenos to reliably bring us information. Like I said, no disrespect to him, but his sources could definitely be lying to him in an attempt to drum up more attention for this leak.

I find it hard to believe a conspiracy so large that every industry insider is effected by it though. That's too far of a stretch.
"Hard evidence"? I've seen spawn waves video and there is absolutely no hard evidence.
The evidence is their statements tied in with how many times they've gotten insider claims correct. You can't argue against a proven track record.
 
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Hydrualic Hydra

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View attachment 171967

If you want to ignore the hard evidence presented by Spawn Wave, the Resetera mod team, and Nintendo Life's Alec, who have been proven multiple times to have actual insider information, alongside multiple other proven insiders who have proven insider sources that have occasionally been wrong in favor of a single source and a 4chan text leak be my guest. But don't be surprised if its fake.
Uhhh
As much as I'm one for weighing evidence...
What evidence?
They've provided no actual evidence, literally just 'where's Incineroar, I know Incneroar should be here' and 'that's a lotta damage characters!'

There's no real proof to go on for team real, but team fake's insiders have yet to actually give real information. Spawn Wave's statements amounted to 'it looks real I guess, but I just don't know' and Serebii's statement came down to 'burden of proof' with no final say on truthfulness.
 

CosmicQuark

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View attachment 171967

If you want to ignore the hard evidence presented by Spawn Wave, the Resetera mod team, and Nintendo Life's Alec, who have been proven multiple times to have actual insider information, alongside multiple other proven insiders who have proven insider sources that have occasionally been wrong in favor of a single source and a 4chan text leak be my guest. But don't be surprised if its fake.
Um... what evidence presented by Spawn Wave? His video only had speculation, nothing new to bring to the table. And from what I've seen, the Resetera team haven't produced any good evidence or arguments, unless I missed something.

I'm willing to look at the evidence if it's there, but I have not seen it yet.
 
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google chrom

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Let's see if he has anything interesting to say. Like I said, though, he's probably just going to keep giving vague non-answers and keep baiting us. Which is fine if they have sources they have to protect but honestly I'd rather these insiders would just be quiet if they can't say something rather than keep dishing out irritating teasers that tell us nothing.

Well it's safe to say we're both right, people are arguing now while inhaling his dong, and he only stopped by to give that sweet one line of vague, useless text that people went crazy over.
 

Shyy_Guy595

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Okay, has the opinion changed? Or did these insiders basically restate the same stuff we've already heard?
 

Pakky

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Is it odd that finally seeing Isabelle's "getting hit" animation has made my week?


What the ****, remove this.

Good lord y'all.


What's the status of the leak btw?
 
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ExceptionalBeasts

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View attachment 171967

If you want to ignore the hard evidence presented by Spawn Wave, the Resetera mod team, and Nintendo Life's Alec, who have been proven multiple times to have actual insider information, alongside multiple other proven insiders who have proven insider sources that have occasionally been wrong in favor of a single source and a 4chan text leak be my guest. But don't be surprised if its fake.
Not sealioning, genuinely curious- what hard evidence was presented by them, and what have they been right about in the past? I haven't heard any of this.
 

Mutsukki

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No, not the point.

Ill break it down for you. If fake, here's what the leaker has accomplished miraculously:

Art:
1. Successfully recreated the background of the banner to various degrees of success (this would be his one problem)

2. Moved and shifted nearly 40 characters on the banner (a photoshopper knows this is a lot of work)

3. Moving said characters required like 50% of them to receive additional art (Jigglypuff, Roy, Greninja and more have body parts hidden behind other characters, and moving them causes those parts to be revealed.) If fake, the leaker has drawn all the additional art needed.

4. Create 7 handcrafted renders for 7 new characters, all of which have no reputable source for inspiration (in fact, a troll tried disproving Chorus Kids render by making a fake one themselves, similar to Duck Hunt in Smash 4). After nearly 36 hours, NOBODY has found existing renders. All of them are original.

5. Of the 7, Isaac is using psyenergy people normally do not associate him with, and The Conductor is the central character in the chorus kids render, something most people wouldn't do.

6. Caused the Smashified team to claim the Banjo render as theirs, only to get hopelessly shut down and memed.

7. All 7 new renders fit in with the art style and from what we can see and people BELIEVE IT.

Background of the leaker:

1. The leak was made to look unintentional through Snapchat. Sends it to a friend or friends. Said friends leak it. Weird but okay, not posted directly on 4chan or another leak site. Basically they leaked it with the apparent plot twist of acting like they didn't want to leak it. Amazing.

2. The leaker created images with all of the above 7 points I made in the art section, only to print it out using Autocad, cardboard paper provided by his job, complete with fold out instructions of how to display it. On top of this, the leaker makes sure to take an image from really far of his good ****ing artwork, all to doop people into thinking it's a cardboard advert.

3. Said leaker plans and attaches Grinch artwork from the office to further solidify his leak. He thinks "if they find out my background, they'll surely see that job also makes these!" Amazing.

4. Said leaker scrubs out a receipt with his name or the name of his co-worker poorly! On purpose! Because he knows the internet will try and find the name! That said name will lead them to his LinkedIn page that connects him to his job. This plan was made YEARS in advance to carefully accomplish his goal of fooling people he has a legit leak at his job. Amazing.

5. Said leaker knew people would get this far, but said leaker apparently didn't think about the consequences of him getting arrested or dragging his or his colleagues name through the mud to find more work. Totally plausible.

/s


See where I'm going with this? It is 9000x harder for me to see it being fake, than to actually believe it's real. I cannot, for the life of me, logically see how someone can manage to do ALL of this, without a major inconsistency ****ing it up. And so far, it hasn't.
Gonna answer each point one by one. Ok:

1 and 2: Yeah, it IS a lot of work, but I do not know what makes this out of the realm of being a fake. If it was a lot of PROFESSIONALLY WELL DONE WORK, then I'd be all over it. But we literally can't see it. It's just a whole lot of blur, which is the easiest way to mask any mistakes or any not-in-style art. That's the main reason why I don't think this is even comparable to the ESRB leak (which had way more screenshots and info than this btw)

3: Funny you say Jigglypuff because she looks atrocious on the leak. The other ones can be successfully (but not very well done) redrawn using photoshop. Healing brush, clone stamp tool, stuff like that are used a whole lot. But it's also clear that if this IS a fake leak, that the guy has good artistic skills.

4: Those are not renders, but rather illustrations and it's impossible to be certain of their quality at this point because a whole lot of them are just a confusing mesh of colors.

5: "Most people wouldn't do" is also not the basis for anything. Does it make it stronger? Yeah, it does, but there's nothing in it that makes me say "Wow!!! Only Nintendo would think of that!!" since one of Isaac's most proeminent class in the game uses the thorn spell as an attack (which is, btw, earth magic) and the Conductor being central to the Chorus Kids is not far off either, seeing as he's present on their trophy present in Smash 4.

6: I don't really care about that, it's their problem

7: You must have an exceptionally good vision, much akin that of an eagle, because for me it's literally impossible to tell if they're in style or not. I also think Banjo looks very off-model, but, again, I can't tell at all because of how tiny it is.

1: That's the exact same circustances behind the ESRB leak. It wasn't through snapchat, but it was through a messaging program and leaked by someone else. I don't think the circumstances make it more or less belieavble, it could be made to look unintenional while still being (and that's not hard to do or come up with at all)

2: Uh... can you point to me this cardboard paper thing? Because it's not there that's for sure. And of course a fake leaker would take a really far away picture, why do you think 99% of fake leaks are blurry lol.

3: I think the Grinch thing was there for the exact purpose of this point. But I'll go a step further: The Grinch thing may have to do with his actual job, while the Smash thing doesn't. (Though none of the Grinch renders are new either)

4: That may have been an actual mistake, but I'm not putting it past this guy searching up someone on an advertising company that worked for Bamco and using one unlucky guy he found on LinkedIn for this (Even more when said guy has no relations to Bamco presently anymore, which means that, if there's a fake leaker, he probably made a mistake and only looked up the guy on a surface level)

5: You do know... that a lot of people don't care right? The guy who spread the ESRB leak did not care if his acquaintance was going to be fired. This might give more credibility to this seeing as the circumstances are very similar (guy was found because of the monitor brand he used, which is exclusive to Brazil), but the empathy card means nothing to these people, since it works against the leak being real too because it assumes his friend did not care either.

The thing isn't that there isn't a major inconsistency. I actually think there are a lot of them, but beyond that, a lot of things just don't add up or are merely conjectures being passed as facts.
 

Chrollo.

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Here’s take: If you’re siding with the Insiders and Journalists, you at least have to acknowledge that their reasonings are essentially based on Incineroar who may have been sent out as a leak bait character. They haven’t exactly presented any concrete argument so far that WE haven’t talked about besides “Trust me, I trust my sources”. If you put all your trust into insiders, you have to understand that they’re not always right, especially when they’re self aware that Nintendo has been deliberately put out false information. There was a time where LKD was unstoppable, where all hate against her would be ****ted on but then one wrong leak and it all came crashing down. They’re never gonna be 100% correct, no matter how good their track record is.

But also, if you’re arguing against them, you too have to acknowledge why people put their faith into them. To act like LKD, Verge, or Serebii have no inside sources is beyond ridiculous. Verge knew about the Ninja Turtles DLC for Injustice, LKD knew about Mario vs Rabbids, Serebii knew a bunch of **** about Brawl; All things they shouldn’t have known about. Yes, they may have been wrong before, but naturally ANY leaker should get something wrong. There’s only so many things you can leak without getting fed the wrong information. Their opinions shouldn’t be treated like gospel like some people in this thread have been doing, but they also should not be brushed off with “Well, they’ve gotten so and so wrong before, so what do they know?” like some people in this thread have also been doing. It’s always gonna be 50/50 whether their track record is good or bad, because they’re only told what their sources want to tell them.

It’s no use arguing over this and picking sides because literally NOBODY knows what the **** is going on, so until the next direct comes, we get more proof, or the creator of this leak says its fake, everything is a legitimate assumption.
 

Nekoo

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I love how before that leak appeared we were all eager to hear what those insider knew especially GameExplain with their """totally lucky guess""" about hinting at some Characters and how they get things right magically.


And the moment there a leak everyone want to believe, people hate and harass those people because they come forward and says that the leak might be false.


What the **** people?
 

Heracr055

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Under the assumption that there is no change from this morning's news (latest being the revelation that 1) guy worked at multiple companies, 2) guy is 50, 3) guy claims to not be part of this
In the meantime...I got bored during a meeting & made a list of my excitement levels for the chars in the game. I have a bias for 30 of the chars (good & bad) and am neutral on everyone else.

20181025_104753.jpg

Not sure why it's coming in rotated, but oh well.
Hopefully it's legible and you guys can get a glimpse into how I see the confirmed cast
 
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PsySmasher

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Is it odd that finally seeing Isabelle's "getting hit" animation has made my week?


With all this animal cruelty, I'm shocked this game only has an E10+ rating. :smirk:

And on the leak discussion:
Just because Incineroar is not in the leak doesn't prove it's fake. Regardless, off what any leaker/source says, no leak can be disproven with a character we haven't seen yet.
 

amazonevan19

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doomedtacox

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Gamexplain is very oddly ignoring this leak, and I'm not sure why. Apparently they've said they will not be covering it beyond that garbage 5 minute video. Very weird.
 

Potato_

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Like I said before, Vaanrose's post on the backgrounds and the fact that there is no big proof this new company works on Nintendo or Illumination are the two biggest pieces of information against the leak.

Many insiders are so confident that the leak is fake, but they have not really provided any real evidence that WE couldn't provide. Common things they say are "I can't say why" "Incineroar is missing", etc.

I assume they have a reason as to why they're so confident, I think they DO have something making them wary. But we can't say for sure, and to act like that is hard evidence is unfair IMO.
 

Gothitelle

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So just for reference, a hypothetical fake leaker would have to:

  • Post a text leak one month in advance on 4Chan (or use someone else's) and base the leak on that. Post in a different language to the one in the image for added validity.
  • Find a disused LinkedIn account for someone who worked for any company related to Nintendo in some way (Bamco in this case)
  • Change their SnapChat name to the person's name
  • Pirate AutoCad or get access to a workplace that uses it
  • Clear the Battlefield of characters using PhotoShop (or take the E3 one and realign it to be flat)
  • Create renders for all 7 characters
  • PhotoShop everyone back in
  • Check what other contracts that company may currently have and arrive at the new Grinch movie
  • Create the Grinch renders
  • Fling everything on to a table
  • Take a SnapChat video, "write f*** Nintendo" in French and send it to another account
  • Screenshot it the other account
  • Sloppily paint out the SnapChat name in Windows Paint, making sure the transparency on the brush is turned up
  • Post it to some Discord
  • Watch the magic happen


Am I missing anything here? Because this seems far from impossible, honestly.
Oh god damn it here we go

  • Almost certaintly coincidental, there are a lot of leaks and some of them can just happen to line up.
  • Lists of employees can be found for companies on Linkedin.
  • Snapchat is ridiculously easy to mock up. No need to actually change a name.
  • Why would they need Autocad exactly?
  • I've already been over those disrepancies.
  • The 'renders' are almost certainly low quality in reality.
  • Why would they photoshop everyone back in rather than just... move them around a bit on the existing image?
  • Wouldn't be too hard, probably just looked at the list of contractors, seen Illumination, and remembered the Grinch movie.
  • The sources for images in almost all of the Grinch renders have already been found.
  • Even if they did print it all out, as @staindgrey already pointed out, it'd cost 10 dollars maximum to print. It's also entirely possible they just threw it together on a stock image.
  • Any evidence of the actual video?
  • Again, Snapchat is ridiculously easy to mock up.
  • Do I even need to go over the transparency thing again? As before:
    I know it's blacked out, but - and I don't want to sound like I'm in denial, I'm just genuinely curious - why would they have done such a bad job at blacking it out? It's obvious even from a glance that there's a visible name under it, and there are patches where it's pitch black, so I don't understand why they wouldn't take the five seconds needed to properly black it out unless they were creating an intentional paper trail.
This isn't impossible by any stretch of the imagination. Not even Machievalian.
 

mbvswb

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Has Nintendo been known for putting out leak bait? And what are some examples of so?
 
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Fenriraga

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Yeesh, Andre of GX has been getting harassed by people and so have other insiders apparently.

Reminder that its just a game. A game that comes out in like a month.
To be fair, he's really not helping his case by complaining about how extremist people on both sides are getting... Then comparing them to Trump supporters, a LITERAL example of being extremist.

I love Andre, I do, he's a great guy, but EVERY OTHER TWEET of his is like this, I swear...

Also don't get in a discussion about this, the LAST thing this thread needs is politics.
 
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RyuhoFox

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So Im lost again. I know that the leak from yesterday we found that the person in question didnt work at the company we thought they did and that one of the gamexplain guys decided to drag politics into things for some reason(wtf) but what is the general consensus now?
 

Graizen

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If you guys realy believe that a guy would go and research all that just to make a fake leak, my god.

He actualy got tons of **** right.

He is not getting money for that, why lose your work becouse of all this?

For me this is 100% Real.
 

T-Hell

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Of course. I completely trust papagenos papagenos papagenos papagenos to reliably bring us information. Like I said, no disrespect to him, but his sources could definitely be lying to him in an attempt to drum up more attention for this leak.

I find it hard to believe a conspiracy so large that every industry insider is effected by it though. That's too far of a stretch.
Honestly to me it kind of seems like his sources are actual friends of his, so they wouldn't lie to him I don't think. Let's just wait for him to clear it all out here when he possibly can.
 

doomedtacox

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Of course. I completely trust papagenos papagenos to reliably bring us information. Like I said, no disrespect to him, but his sources could definitely be lying to him in an attempt to drum up more attention for this leak.

I find it hard to believe a conspiracy so large that every industry insider is effected by it though. That's too far of a stretch.

The evidence is their statements tied in with how many times they've gotten insider claims correct. You can't argue against a proven track record.
That isn't hard evidence, especially because if they know this is true then they'd be heavy in damage control.
 

TeamFlareZakk

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Who would win:

Actual insiders with actual information
OR
papagenos papagenos ' second-hand source that he somewhat doubts himself

No disrespect to papagenos, but you're performing some amazing mental gymnastics to come to that conclusion.
I think Ken could be the leak bait, and if so he would be a incorrect character photoshopped into the banner, whom is again missing Incineroar and Medusa two key characters who should be on the banner.
 

Iko MattOrr

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Oh god damn it here we go

  • Almost certaintly coincidental, there are a lot of leaks and some of them can just happen to line up.
  • Lists of employees can be found for companies on Linkedin.
  • Snapchat is ridiculously easy to mock up. No need to actually change a name.
  • Why would they need Autocad exactly?
  • I've already been over those disrepancies.
  • The 'renders' are almost certainly low quality in reality.
  • Why would they photoshop everyone back in rather than just... move them around a bit on the existing image?
  • Wouldn't be too hard, probably just looked at the list of contractors, seen Illumination, and remembered the Grinch movie.
  • The sources for images in almost all of the Grinch renders have already been found.
  • Even if they did print it all out, as @staindgrey already pointed out, it'd cost 10 dollars maximum to print. It's also entirely possible they just threw it together on a stock image.
  • Any evidence of the actual video?
  • Again, Snapchat is ridiculously easy to mock up.
  • Do I even need to go over the transparency thing again? As before:
This isn't impossible by any stretch of the imagination. Not even Machievalian.
I thiny you are supporting the same point, just read the last sentence of that post: "Because this seems far from impossible, honestly."
 

doomedtacox

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Honestly to me it kind of seems like his sources are actual friends of his, so they wouldn't lie to him I don't think. Let's just wait for him to clear it all out here when he possibly can.
They aren't friends of his, this is the first time he's ever interacted with the "source". They reached out to him.
 
D

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With all this "oh wait this might be fake" stuff coming up, I switched to this song AND OH MY GOD it fits even better.
 

CantGetRidOfTheRidley

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Many insiders are so confident that the leak is fake, but they have not really provided any real evidence that WE couldn't provide. Common things they say are "I can't say why"
An important lesson I think everyone should learn is any """insider""" who says "I know something about this but I can't tell you :))))" is most likely not an actual insider and just wants people's attention. At least text 4chan leaks are anonymous. Please don't fall for the trap of blindly believing someone because they say they're legit and they're the uncle who works at Nintendo. They just attention and followers.
 
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