To be honest I have yet to play SMRPG, but Geno alone makes me want to play it, as I find his design and what I've read about his character to be cool and interesting.
I also believe he could be in as he may have done well in the ballot due to his mii costume coming after it like K. Rool's (with the mii costume showing he had the license to use Geno's likeness, and maybe still has it if we are to believe the licenses carried over), and then other stuff I've stated, but of course he's not a lock.
I don't understand arguments against characters as they usually sound like "I don't like them and don't want them in," which is fine but no need to make an argument to make the characters seem unlikely :S (there are some solid points, but some people have stuff that seems like...distaste for the character, like they shouldn't be in).
I'm not against Geno being in at all. I'm admittedly having a poor day (not an excuse still), but I want people to temper their expectations. I came off much more harshly than I originally intended, a fault of mine when I get debating.
Sakurai does like the character, and he does have his fans. I also just have a personal irritation with people when they want someone they haven't even played their game or when they piggyback, admittedly I don't know how many people are doing that. I see you saying you want to play Mario RPG to see how Geno is, and I hope you do that, it's a fun little romp of a game.
I just get needlessly mad sometimes with Smash stuff and it kinda burst today. Calming down now so I'll probably just stop here with Geno and i'm sorry, I do feel strongly in some regards, but I guess it's silly reasoning in the end, I just want people to be genuinely happy with characters or to support who they want regardless of their chances. I do get a little irked when people "want" because others do or that they "seem" likely, but i'll temper myself in that regard.
In the end Ultimate is gonna be amazing regardless of what Sakurai decides and i'll happily meet it.