Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I'm unsure about a playlist update being indication of a Direct or standalone trailer.

In one hand, this somewhat contradicts Sakurai's latest Famitsu column about slowing down the newcomer pace since we'd get a newcomer literally one week after he said that.

On the other, the team put so much damn work on making sure there'd be as little leaks as possible (despite stuff like Vergeben happening) that it's hard to believe they'd just update things so damn early.

Also...

this also happened about a week before Isabelle's reveal.

That's not a great comparison to make if you're trying to make us believe there's a pattern, given the fact that Isabelle's reveal got delayed by a week.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

My final 5:

1. Ken
2. Incineroar
3. Neku Sakuraba (he IS a Square Enix rep)
4. Elma
5. Black Shadow

Anyone else is DLC, including (potentially) Steve. No deconfirmed characters either.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Just saying, Putting Waluigi at number sort of contradicts your "Not saying it'll happen" a little. Unless you think every single character is unlikely (which is admittedly somewhat fair)


Also I really hope we see Skull Kid. Or something unexpected to shake things up a bit. Especially a Pokemon that's NOT Incineroar. We need another Gematsu destroyer

Why are you always out to disprove Vergeben? Did he offend you or something?

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

Nice signature that trailer was one of the strangest things I’ve seen in a while...

Where is that from, anyways?

I'm unsure about a playlist update being indication of a Direct or standalone trailer.

In one hand, this somewhat contradicts Sakurai's latest Famitsu column about slowing down the newcomer pace since we'd get a newcomer literally one week after he said that.

On the other, the team put so much damn work on making sure there'd be as little leaks as possible (despite stuff like Vergeben happening) that it's hard to believe they'd just update things so damn early.

Also...


That's not a great comparison to make if you're trying to make us believe there's a pattern, given the fact that Isabelle's reveal got delayed by a week.

Given how Sakurai occasionally changes his mind, I wouldn't be shocked if he decided not to take any chances so close to release.

 

[Jetsurge]

In one hand, this somewhat contradicts Sakurai's latest Famitsu column about slowing down the newcomer pace since we'd get a newcomer literally one week after he said that.

I took it as the next direct will only have one unique newcomer instead of 2 like before.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

I'm back from ban prison, wooo!

You was banned...oh no

My final 5:

1. Ken
2. Incineroar
3. Neku Sakuraba (he IS a Square Enix rep)
4. Elma
5. Black Shadow

Anyone else is DLC, including (potentially) Steve. No deconfirmed characters either.

oh yeah...well my final 5 is

1. Shadow
2. Ken
3. Issac
4. Viridi/Medusa/Hades/Pandora
5. Geno

 

[Knight Dude]

All the kids want to Main Stanley from Donkey Kong 3. Clearly him and Kiddy Kong will be the main characters everyone of us has been waiting for. K.Rool was just one of the guys that needed to get out of way to get the dream team going.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Given how Sakurai occasionally changes his mind, I wouldn't be shocked if he decided not to take any chances so close to release.

That would make sense, but if they drop the whole roster now, it's going to hurt a final Direct.

If they drop the final Direct on this month, it'd mean two whole damn months of waiting, learning nothing at all.

Then again, the 50-Fact Extravaganza worked pretty well despite only teasing the first DLC when it comes to character additions, so who knows...

 

[Deleted member]

Why are you always out to disprove Vergeben? Did he offend you or something?

• All his leaks were lucky guesses and he's a fraud.
• A character I like wasn't mentioned by him.
• He claims a character I like isn't in.

Take your pick.

 

[AzureFlame4]

• All his leaks were lucky guesses and he's a fraud.
• A character I like wasn't mentioned by him.
• He claims a character I like isn't in.

Take your pick.

You forgot "He didn't know about K. Rool or Richter so he is definitely fake."

 

[Pyra]

• All his leaks were lucky guesses and he's a fraud.
• A character I like wasn't mentioned by him.
• He claims a character I like isn't in.

Take your pick.

Fourth option: I'm clairvoyant

Prove me wrong

#ClairvoyanceTheory

 

[Untouch]

The really interesting part of a lot of Vergeben skeptics is they believe Hitagi because Vergeben said he had some info.

 

[CroonerMike]

• All his leaks were lucky guesses and he's a fraud.
• A character I like wasn't mentioned by him.
• He claims a character I like isn't in.

Take your pick.

“Duhhh the GEMATUS LEAK was proven false by duh..uhm...ribbin from fire emblem. THEREFOR, I concure that said leak is FAKE”

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

That would make sense, but if they drop the whole roster now, it's going to hurt a final Direct.

If they drop the final Direct on this month, it'd mean two whole damn months of waiting, learning nothing at all.

Then again, the 50-Fact Extravaganza worked pretty well despite only teasing the first DLC when it comes to character additions, so who knows...

The 50-Fact Extravaganza was dropped two months before the Japanese Wii U release (it was December 6th in Japan). So historically this wouldn't be too early.

For the Isabelle update do we know if it was 10 days before the 6th or the 13th? That changes things.

 

[Deleted member]

Fourth option: I'm clairvoyant

Prove me wrong

#ClairvoyanceTheory

When Geno's revealed this month, Clairvoyance Theory will spread like wildfire.

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

Has no one considered the fact that Ryu is simply placed to the right so that there isn’t a weird gap in this otherwise symmetrical design?

 

[Shadowwolflink]

Huh, the empty space being before Ryu certainly raises a question....

No it doesn't, that's just so the last row doesn't look lopsided. There's no clue to what characters are left in that image.

 

[AzureFlame4]

I keep forgetting Sakurai makes his roster decisions based on the designs of download cards and boxes.

 

[Paperchampion23]

Huh, the empty space being before Ryu certainly raises a question....

It really doesn't I dont think. They don't have a perfect number of character to fill the space, so they have to center the last row. At least IMO.

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

Completely unrelated but I just found an amusing error on the Blog, K. Rool's reveal trailer is listed as being from Castlevania instead of DK. Looks like somebody was a bit hasty.

 

[domriver]

All right so to Summarize these events are:
Downloadable card shows 2 spaces left.
Smash Bros Japanese youtube playlist updated - possible incoming character? - Do we know how many slots were opened or we can't tell till the day of of course?
Oh and Steve deconfirmed by developers? at least for base game.?

EDIT:1

Every time I wanna take a break from this place for a few days, something like this happens. Back on to the 'updated playlist' railcar of the hype train, I suppose.

LOL im sooo excittteeddd

Inb4 the YouTube playlist get updated for Chrom/Dark Samus "trailer"

LOL

 

[Darkraid]

It would be damn weird to an empty space after ryu

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

and Steve deconfirmed by developers?

Oh? What's this based off of?

 

[Flynn__]

I hope that the fact that the download card puts the space before Ryu and not after him will end the theory that Ken and Incineroar are the only characters left. The characters have been placed that way because it's harmonic and not because there are only two slots left, guys.

 

[Flyboy]

Has no one considered the fact that Ryu is simply placed to the right so that there isn’t a weird gap in this otherwise symmetrical design?

Clearly it's hinting at Banjo-Kazooie as a Duck Hunt echo.

 

[Enchess]

If anything, wouldn't the card support box theory because when it had two empty spaces in a row, it centered the row with a blank on each side, while the box didn't?

This creates an inconsistency on how Smash promotional images deal with empty space. As others already pointed out, the box will come out after we know the full roster and the cards before. So those blank spaces on cards won't be filled, thus they center it to look nice. The blank spaces on box, if you believe box theory, are placeholders for characters that will get announced, so they wouldn't center it because it'll sort itself out and look nice by release.

TL;DR - I saw a couple people saying card is evidence against box theory. You guys know that's not true, or still don't understand the very basics of the theory.

Edit: I only looked one page back cuz my time is limited this morning. Someone said you can physically pick up card this month. My point rests on that so correct me if that was wrong

 

[Pakky]

Hurhur Steve deconfirmed by the developers.

I mean is cool to have selfish dreams but the likeness of the block man on the roster is high.

Now as for Minecraft's 'aesthetics' um well whew, I don't know man sometimes you gotta just not be ugly and change some textures.

 

[Deleted member]

If anything, wouldn't the card support box theory because when it had two empty spaces in a row, it centered the row with a blank on each side, while the box didn't?

This creates an inconsistency on how Smash promotional images deal with empty space. As others already pointed out, the box will come out after we know the full roster and the cards before. So those blank spaces on cards won't be filled, thus they center it to look nice. The blank spaces on box, if you believe box theory, are placeholders for characters that will get announced, so they wouldn't center it because it'll sort itself out and look nice by release.

TL;DR - I saw a couple people saying card is evidence against box theory. You guys know that's not true, or still don't understand the very basics of the theory.

Edit: I only looked one page back cuz my time is limited this morning. Someone said you can physically pick up card this month. My point rests on that so correct me if that was wrong

I'm sort of out of the loop so what is this mew card theory?

 

[ItsZant]

box theory 2.0 basically.

 

[Darkurai]

I keep forgetting Sakurai makes his roster decisions based on the designs of download cards and boxes.

He doesn't, but download cards and boxes would be designed around the final roster.

 

[kylexv]

Anyone interested in looking at the download card?

Hey, that looks coo...
sees that there's two spaces left just like the box.

Spoiler: Reaction

We're back to this again, aren't we.

 

[papagenos]

While the space is before Ryu, it is also right next to him, making it easy to add Ken. putting a space after him would basically confirm hes getting an echo where as this way its easy to finalize that roster lay out while still being able to add in ken later.

This on top of the box having an "off" row of 8...I mean i dont think anyones doubting ken is in the game the question is basically are we getting more than Ken/Incineroar...

That said the card is being sold apparently so that is the final card i guess, still leaving two spots is suspicious as that same roster layout may be used else where and can easily add in the ken/incineroar box theory characters for an even layout in future promotional material.

im still hopeful we get at least one more character after that...i still find it odd to end at unique fighter #69 instead of #70 and end up with smash down being one fighter away from the fully exhaustible roster of 72 AND vergeben having a square rep as part of his 3 characters...

but this is at least a tiny bit more evidence toward box theory for now.

 

[Enchess]

I'm sort of out of the loop so what is this mew card theory?

A download card released with the current roster on it. Bottom row is centered leaving 2 blank spaces, so 2 remaining characters.

The lack of centering on box was part of why it's defenders defended it (why wouldn't you center it unless it's gonna get filled and thus centered?). This is releasing before newcomer announcements, so unlike box this is the roster we know at the time you can physically pick the product up. Thus, they center it to look nice, showing Nintendo cares about centering.

Ironically, despite the two theories making the same predictions, the centering might actually indicate the card is coincidence due to said centering even if box is real.

 

[Darkurai]

I believe in Box Theory, but I'm gonna say this card is fake, or at the least was not designed around the final roster. The box was a digital image on a website that can be easily edited to conceal future reveals. This is a physical printout in real space. If this card is intended to eventually represent the final roster, why does a censored printout of it even exist?

Additionally, why is it printed upside-down?

 

[Caiahar]

We’re definitely going to have a Tetris block to fill in that missing space.

 

[Deleted member]

If anything, wouldn't the card support box theory because when it had two empty spaces in a row, it centered the row with a blank on each side, while the box didn't?

This creates an inconsistency on how Smash promotional images deal with empty space. As others already pointed out, the box will come out after we know the full roster and the cards before. So those blank spaces on cards won't be filled, thus they center it to look nice. The blank spaces on box, if you believe box theory, are placeholders for characters that will get announced, so they wouldn't center it because it'll sort itself out and look nice by release.

TL;DR - I saw a couple people saying card is evidence against box theory. You guys know that's not true, or still don't understand the very basics of the theory.

Edit: I only looked one page back cuz my time is limited this morning. Someone said you can physically pick up card this month. My point rests on that so correct me if that was wrong

The difference between the box and the card IMO is that the card is a finished design for a product releasing soon, whereas the box currently is a digital mock-up seemingly made off of the 8.8 Direct's information.

I think we may be reading into this card a little too much. The characters are simply ordered the way the are on the website: by their Smash appearance. The only reason there are gaps on the left and right side is so that the characters currently revealed can be centered neatly in the middle and not look off.

I really don't think anything's changed with this card. There's really only three things that can determine the fate of the box at this point IMO:

1: The box's design updates to show Isabelle and potentially shows more sides of the box or potentially deconfirming the theory by rearranging characters, thus destroying the pattern.

2: A final Direct happens and only two characters are shown off, which by this point it doesn't matter if the theory is true or not because hey, they're the last characters. Base game speculation is over.

3: Verge confirms another character for base, ending the theory instantly if you're someone who believes him.

I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts on the matter. I really do think the box (as annoying as it is) is just going to constantly loom over speculation until the very end, as I just don't see anything happening past a final Direct at this point. As for when that'll happen...To be honest, I'm not getting my hopes up for anything announced for at least 3, maybe 4 more weeks.

 

[Untouch]

A download card released with the current roster on it. Bottom row is centered leaving 2 blank spaces, so 2 remaining characters.

The lack of centering on box was part of why it's defenders defended it (why wouldn't you center it unless it's gonna get filled and thus centered?). This is releasing before newcomer announcements, so unlike box this is the roster we know at the time you can physically pick the product up. Thus, they center it to look nice, showing Nintendo cares about centering.

Ironically, despite the two theories making the same predictions, the centering might actually indicate the card is coincidence due to said centering even if box is real.

The box isn't going to look like that when the product launches though. It was a digital mockup edited to removed whatever is in that space unlike the card which was explicitly designed that way.

 

[Enchess]

The difference between the box and the card IMO is that the card is a finished design for a product releasing soon, whereas the box currently is a digital mock-up seemingly made off of the 8.8 Direct's information.

I think we may be reading into this card a little too much. The characters are simply ordered the way the are on the website: by their Smash appearance. The only reason there are gaps on the left and right side is so that the characters currently revealed can be centered neatly in the middle and not look off.

I really don't think anything's changed with this card. There's really only three things that can determine the fate of the box at this point IMO:

1: The box's design updates to show Isabelle and potentially shows more sides of the box or potentially deconfirming the theory by rearranging characters, thus destroying the pattern.

2: A final Direct happens and only two characters are shown off, which by this point it doesn't matter if the theory is true or not because hey, they're the last characters. Base game speculation is over.

3: Verge confirms another character for base, ending the theory instantly if you're someone who believes him.

I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts on the matter. I really do think the box (as annoying as it is) is just going to constantly loom over speculation until the very end, as I just don't see anything happening past a final Direct at this point. As for when that'll happen...To be honest, I'm not getting my hopes up for anything announced for at least 3, maybe 4 more weeks.

But what you're saying about the box not being final and card being centered to look nice is exactly my point.

If the box is gonna change significantly in how it lays out roster (which is has to to fit more than 2 characters), then why not make the temp version centered and more visually appealing? It's weird to make a temp image ugly when it takes less than 5 min of an interns time to center it.

The box isn't going to look like that when the product launches though. It was a digital mockup edited to removed whatever is in that space unlike the card which was explicitly designed that way.

I think you're agreeing with me? My whole point was the inconsistency in how they are handled could've been easily predicted by box theory.

 

[Arymle Roseanne]

I don't want to make any assumptions who's left but I'm pretty sure Ken is guaranteed.

I hope we end with an even number at least.
Interestingly enough Brawl was the only one with an odd number of characters(39) the others were 12(SSB 64) 26(Melee) and 58(SSB 4).

 

[Flyboy]

We’re definitely going to have a Tetris block to fill in that missing space.

But with the line complete it'll disappear! Do you want us to lose a whole row of characters?!