Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

No. The only thing that the theory is based on is what music is revealed compared to when a newcomer is revealed:

The only two characters that don't have any music reveal relatively close to their corresponding reveal w/ them are Daisy & Dark Samus (who both happen to be echoes).

Based on the fact that Simon & Richter were revealed together, people tie the music reveal to Simon more than Richter.

Chrom is the only echo that did have a relatively close music reveal w/ his announcement, but some see this as a coincidence since none of the newcomers have broken the above trend.

I'm not saying this theory is 100% true, but I can see why people treat Chrom as an anomaly to this theory.

Chrom just shows it can happen to Echoes too.

But yeah, that makes a lot more sense now that's more properly explained.

Though like I said, a fully unique newcomer getting music is expected. But now I see what the point was. I wasn't sure why Chrom mattered or didn't, but I get it now. Not a theory I hold onto, but it does have a logical pattern to it.

 

[kylexv]

It'd help a lot if the blog posts actually revealed stuff more than once a week.

Pic of the Day made Smash 4 speculation a lot more bearable imo.

 

[CannonStreak]

God, this place is gonna be hell if the next Direct isn't early October.


I'm scared.

Early October? If some people think it will be by then, why?

 

[Murlough]

Chrom contradicted the theory, so the echos got taken out of it? Again, this makes no sense.

It actually makes perfect sense. In a sense, the theory was defeated. So, they developed a new one that didn't involve Echos, the only thing that beat the theory.

Now the theory does not include Echos. I don't understand why this is difficult. If nothing contradicts the current theory then why is there a problem?

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

I don't get what you're saying.

The AC song came out after Isabelle was revealed, so was K. Rool's.

I'm saying that chrom doesn't contradict the theory that music doesn't come out from a series until a character from said series is shown, what are you saying?

 

[Shroob]

Early October? If some people think it will be by then, why?

June's Direct was the 12th due to E3.

August's was the 8th.


I dunno, but to me, having the Directs 2 months apart seems perfect.

That was you can go:


June > August > October > Launch

Instead of:

June > August >>>>> November>Launch


Gives a 2~ month period for discussion and hype between each.

 

[Noipoi]

WHO'S READY FOR ONE MONTH OF VERG, BOXES, AND MUSIC UNTIL NOVEMBER?

I'M NOT.

 

[SmashChu]

Chrom contradicted the theory, so the echos got taken out of it? Again, this makes no sense.

Chrom doesn't matter. Look at the post above yours. We see it is happening for the standard characters. We see that, outside of Chrom, it doesn't apply to the echoes (thus his may have been a fluke). Thus, we are saying it applies to standard characters and not echoes. We see that they are tying the music to newcomers as Animal Crossing's music was delayed with Isabelle. Pikmin was suppose to be this week.

There isn't much else too it. Things can change. We don't know if they will do two songs from the same series on the site as we haven't reached that point yet.

 

[Nethermoosen]

Chrom contradicted the theory, so the echos got taken out of it? Again, this makes no sense.

It does. Because the previous theory obviously didn’t work. Back to the drawing board. Rewrite the theory and see if it works then.

We do this in daily life.
Example: You need a wrench for a lugnut, but you can’t tell what size it is. You grab one that seems right.
You try it. It doesn’t fit.
That doesn’t mean you give up.
It means you modify the size of the wrench or grab one of a different size depending on the wrenches you have.

It doesn’t mean the lugnut can be turned hard enough by a wrench in the hand of a person. So it could just be pointless and you need a power tool. But, you don’t wanna spend your money until you know for sure.

 

[LetterO]

I keep repeating, so I'll just give my stance on the music theory and end it there.

Yes, there is a pattern of a character getting a song themed to them shortly after a character reveal. It's foolish to deny it. However, this doesn't mean characters from a franchise that already had music are deconfirmed. Nor does it mean the pattern will 100% continue. Geno can still happen, Bandana Dee can still happen, Black Shadow can still happen, etc. This is my main point, and I sorta lost it while I kept going in circles about Chrom. Apologies if I seemed frustrating to debate. Just got a little ticked at people assuming a character was deconfirmed because their franchise already got music.

 

[CannonStreak]

June's Direct was the 12th due to E3.

August's was the 8th.


I dunno, but to me, having the Directs 2 months apart seems perfect.

That was you can go:


June > August > October > Launch

Instead of:

June > August >>>>> November>Launch


Gives a 2~ month period for discussion and hype between each.

I dunno, Shroob. I mean, we just had a Nintendo Direct last week. I am not sure if they will release another so soon after.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Early October? If some people think it will be by then, why?

Makes sense if the Smash Directs are bi-monthly. June E3, August Smash Direct, October Smash Direct. Also, we might expect something before the bundle launches November 2 (not because of artwork since it doesn't have placeholder character artwork on it). Also, better to release more info sooner rather than later when the game goes gold, review copies go out, etc. Not a guarantee, and we may not hear anything until November, regardless.

 

[Exalt4747]

I dunno, Shroob. I mean, we just had a Nintendo Direct last week. I am not sure if they will release another so soon after.

Couldn't you say it's unlikely the last one would have happened so soon after 8/8?

And remember, this most recent one was delayed.

 

[Shroob]

I dunno, Shroob. I mean, we just had a Nintendo Direct last week. I am not sure if they will release another so soon after.

We've had Directs on the heels of Directs before.


Besides, by the time "Early October" rolls around for the next Direct, an entire MONTH will have passed since the September Direct's original air date.

 

[Deoxys911]

Well, it's been fun reading through these back-and-forth arguments that are going nowhere, but I think I'm going to go do something that doesn't give me a headache. Anyone want to join me?

 

[Draugen]

Commenting late, but the new Animal Crossing music sounds awesome. It's like Sakurai stated: the OST this time is more combat-oriented. You can feel the different touch on all of the new tracks so far.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

What do you mean? As in how long after Chrom we got the song, or that the song has nothing to do with Chrom?

Former: We got a Splatoon song a week after Inkling, just like Chrom.

Latter: The AC song has nothing to do with Isabelle, Brinstar Depths has nothing to do with Ridley.

Brinstar Depths is the depth of Brinstar...and Brinstar is on Planet Zebes...you know who you fight on said planet? Ridley, who has his own lair that goes below Norfair

Fire Emblem got a remixed song from Heroes, a game where Chrom is not the main character nor is he the main focus of the game (that’s Anna, Alfonse, Sharena, Veronica, Fjorm, and Bruno). Lucina in her Marth disguise would make more sense

Isabelle plays her usual role in HHD as she does in New Leaf and others (also pretty much the face of Animal Crossing)

Simon Belmont and King K Rool...shouldn’t even need explaining

 

[ThatOneAnon]

God, this place is gonna be hell if the next Direct isn't early October.


I'm scared.

Dude, the community will be even worse depending on what that Direct actually contains.
You’re going to wish we were still in our box theory/music theory pessimism phase if they turn out to be true.
I’ve said some controversial **** here that I didn’t really mean all that much, but one thing I will maintain is that the Smash community will burn itself to the ****ing ground if the recent popular theories and leaks hold any credence whatsoever.
Yes, there will be DLC, but the majority won’t care and will decry Ultimate as being “ruined” and curse the day Sakurai was born.
They’ll get over it when DLC gets announced, except we have literally no idea when that’ll happen so the community will be a toxic cesspool for an unknown amount of time. And yeah, they could announce Geno as DLC during the final Direct, but in all honesty I think that would just make things worse, since then people will accuse Sakurai of being a liar and a fraud, even if Geno’s free.
You might think I’m overestimating the backlash, but considering what community we’re talking about, I honestly don’t think I am. No offense to anyone here, of course.

 

[Jigglymaster]

I keep repeating, so I'll just give my stance on the music theory and end it there.

Yes, there is a pattern of a character getting a song themed to them shortly after a character reveal. It's foolish to deny it. However, this doesn't mean characters from a franchise that already had music are deconfirmed. Nor does it mean the pattern will 100% continue. Geno can still happen, Bandana Dee can still happen, Black Shadow can still happen, etc. This is my main point, and I sorta lost it while I kept going in circles about Chrom. Apologies if I seemed frustrating to debate. Just got a little ticked at people assuming a character was deconfirmed because their franchise already got music.

Nobody was deconfirming the characters. It just means that those characters have to break this pattern in order to show up. It hurts their chances and makes them less likely. It's foolish to think that any character is a shoe in and that any character is 100% deconfirmed unless there is like HARD evidence... such as turning into an Assist Trophy.

 

[Shroob]

To note, a Direct on like, the 2nd week of October isn't 'too soon' since Isabelle's reveal IMO.

Remember that the September Direct was delayed by an entire week, so even if it comes the 2nd week of October, that'll still be an entire month since the last Direct.


The September Direct was roughly 1~month after 8.8's Direct anyway.

 

[Dee Dude]

This endless debating of Verge, boxes, and now music makes me almost miss the straw grasping of Karate Joe/DK, Skull Kid/Chair, Rayman/Cloud speculations....


Almost.

 

[Enchess]

It also is kind of a pointless one.

Why is it that surprising that a unique newcomer gets some music soon not long after their regular trailer debut? It wasn't rocket science anyway. There's really nothing else to worry about. It's just a normal pattern at best, though there's obvious issues of blog updates being skipped.

As for Inklings, they never got a regular character trailer like Ridley did, which is odd. It also is fairly inconsistent, since as noted, Chrom proves outright that characters can get music after their reveal related to their franchise. ...Which again, isn't strange.

Is there something I'm even missing with this theory to begin with? Like, other than it being an expected pattern, does it actually have more to it than that?

Yeah, you are missing something, no offense.

The logic is in two parts and basically works like this:
-The site looks better if every icon in the music section is different, thus emphasizing the diverse series represented
-it is easy for Nintendo to make each week feature a song from a different series without repeats, therefore there isn't any real barrier preventing this
-since it is both easy and desireable to have a different series represented each week in the music, Nintendo likely sees fit to do so.
-so in summary, part one of the theory is no series gets more than one song on the blog. This has never been broken so far.

Part two is something like this:
-when announcing a new character for Smash, reinforcing the reveal with other related content (items, music, stages) is good marketing
-music comes every week, making it an easy and effective way of producing desireable synergy
-therefore, it seems reasonable that Nintendo may want to time music and character reveals together
-echoes, however, are considered less hype-worthy (as evidence by them not getting trailers or numbers)
-so in summary, part two says each unique newcomers comes with music. This has never been broken so far, unless you count Inklings since they predated the blog. But they were in the music update after Ridley (whose music reveal logically should have come first to maximize the synergetic effect anyway)

If you take these parts together, music for a series would suggest a unique character from that series will not come because it is better marketing and also easy to hold off on that music until the newcomer from that series is revealed.

While I don't think Music Theory is 100% proven or anything, I do think that thinking it's definitely false shows a lack of faith in the competence in Nintendo's marketing. Which fair, they've had some **** ups in the past. I mean, "Wii U"? That was a marketing disaster.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I'm kinda bored so thought for the fun of it I'd recap each character that debuted in every Smash game that has been made.

Spoiler

Super Smash Bros. (1999; Nintendo 64):
Captain Falcon
Donkey Kong
Fox
Jigglypuff
Kirby
Link
Luigi
Mario
Ness
Pikachu
Samus
Yoshi

-

Super Smash Bros. Melee (2001; Nintendo GameCube)
Bowser
Dr. Mario
Falco
Ganondorf
Ice Climbers
Marth
Mewtwo
Mr. Game & Watch
Roy
Peach
Pichu
Sheik
Young Link
Zelda

-

Super Smash Bros. Brawl (2008; Nintendo Wii)
Diddy Kong
Ike
King Dedede
Lucario
Lucas
Meta Knight
Olimar
Pit
Pokemon Trainer (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard)
R.O.B.
Sonic
Snake
Toon Link
Wario
Wolf
Zero Suit Samus

-

Sm4sh (2014; Nintendo Wii U):
Bayonetta
Bowser Jr.
Cloud
Corrin
Dark Pit
Duck Hunt
Greninja
Little Mac
Lucina
Mega Man
Mii Brawler
Mii Gunner
Mii Swordfighter
Pac-Man
Palutena
Robin
Rosalina & Luma
Ryu
Shulk
Villager
Wii Fit Trainer

-

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2018; Nintendo Switch):
Chrom
Daisy
Dark Samus
Inkling
Isabelle
King K. Rool
Richter
Ridley
Simon

Smash has come a long way. To think next year is its 20th anniversary.

 

[CannonStreak]

Couldn't you say it's unlikely the last one would have happened so soon after 8/8?

And remember, this most recent one was delayed.

Still, it happened in the same month. I am not too sure how that affects anything, since it is just one month from August. Plus, we did get a character reveal in that Direct, so I do not think they'd show another so soon, even though we are getting closer to release.

We've had Directs on the heels of Directs before.


Besides, by the time "Early October" rolls around for the next Direct, an entire MONTH will have passed since the September Direct's original air date.

Thanks for the information, but I still kind of have my doubts.

That is to day, I don't doubt an October Direct completely. Maybe a late October Direct would be more appropriate?

 

[Chumpodile]

I want retro TV to be redone into a battle theme for smash ultimate

 

[TMNTSSB4]

I'm kinda bored so thought for the fun of it I'd recap each character that debuted in every Smash game that has been made.

Spoiler

Super Smash Bros. (1999; Nintendo 64):
Captain Falcon
Donkey Kong
Fox
Kirby
Jigglypuff
Link
Luigi
Mario
Ness
Pikachu
Samus
Yoshi

-

Super Smash Bros. Melee (2001; Nintendo GameCube)
Dr. Mario
Bowser
Falco
Ganondorf
Ice Climbers
Marth
Mewtwo
Mr. Game & Watch
Roy
Peach
Pichu
Sheik
Young Link
Zelda

-

Super Smash Bros. Brawl (2008; Nintendo Wii)
Diddy Kong
Ike
King Dedede
Lucario
Lucas
Meta Knight
Olimar
Pit
Pokemon Trainer (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard)
R.O.B.
Sonic
Snake
Toon Link
Wario
Wolf
Zero Suit Samus

-

Sm4sh (2014; Wii U):
Bayonetta
Bowser Jr.
Cloud
Corrin
Dark Pit
Duck Hunt
Greninja
Little Mac
Lucina
Mega Man
Mii Brawler
Mii Gunner
Mii Swordfighter
Pac-Man
Palutena
Robin
Rosalina & Luma
Ryu
Shulk
Villager
Wii Fit Trainer

-

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2018; Nintendo Switch):
Chrom
Daisy
Dark Samus
Inkling
Isabelle
King K. Rool
Richter
Ridley
Simon

Smash has come a long way. To think next year is its 20th anniversary.

20 more newcomers confirmed...in my dreams

 

[Starbound]

The key element in the music theory is that each series is only getting one song on the website.

I fully agree with "Getting music related to the newcomer is just common sense", because it's the logical conclusion.

The extra element of speculation comes in with the scarcity of music reveals.

For example, Series X only has a single chance to get new music on the site. Is it (A) going to be saved for a newcomer, or (B) release it during the downtime between reveals? If (B), given the decision made, Series X is not getting a newcomer, which is why its music is filler.

The Happy Home Designer music, looking at source code, was scheduled to go up before the direct delay, yet it was postponed. And it was postponed when the song has absolutely no connection to Isabelle. So why bother delaying it? It's not like it would spoil Isabelle's reveal like it would if it were Bloody Tears or Gangplank Galleon.

 

[Shroob]

Still, it happened in the same month. I am not too sure how that affects anything, since it is just one month from August. Plus, we did get a character reveal in that Direct, so I do not think they'd show another so soon, even though we are getting closer to release.



Thanks for the information, but I still kind of have my doubts.

That is to day, I don't doubt an October Direct completely. Maybe a late October Direct would be more appropriate?

Late works too.


I just 'want' it sooner to curb all this theory/speculation talk.

 

[PsySmasher]

I don't think Nintendo would do a direct in November, since their going to be pushing Lets Go Pikachu and Eevee for their Black Friday/Thanksgiving release.

 

[Chumpodile]

I don't think Nintendo would do a direct in November, since their going to be pushing Lets Go Pikachu and Eevee for their Black Friday/Thanksgiving release.

They might reveal a pokemon newcomer

 

[CannonStreak]

Late works too.


I just 'want' it sooner to curb all this theory/speculation talk.

So you were expecting an early October Direct? Too bad! Speculation time!

Sorry, couldn't resist!

But seriously, the wait between Directs and the speculation within them can't be that bad, can it?

 

[Murlough]

You might think I’m overestimating the backlash, but considering what community we’re talking about, I honestly don’t think I am. No offense to anyone here, of course.

Maybe just a little.......

Sometimes I think I'm a pessimist IRL and then I go on the internet.

Actually, I'm expecting the opposite. Yeah, there will be a ton of people crying that their character didn't get in but that'll happen even if we get 20 more characters. With how many posts I've seen thanking Sakurai for his effort, I think we'll be fine.

We certainly won't be "burning down the internet" or whatever. Worst case scenario there will be a few people causing a scene that everyone else will make fun of offline.

 

[Noipoi]

Well, it's been fun reading through these back-and-forth arguments that are going nowhere, but I think I'm going to go do something that doesn't give me a headache. Anyone want to join me?

Nah mate, I live for this chaos.
It amuses me.

 

[PsySmasher]

They might reveal a pokemon newcomer

It's possible, but I don't think they want to divert any attention from Lets Go by revealing something Smash related next to it.

 

[TheCJBrine]

They might reveal a pokemon newcomer

Which is likely a Pokémon that won't be from Kanto, which Let's Go! is limited to, and it still heavily pushes Smash.

Plus they still have that Spirits mode.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The key element in the music theory is that each series is only getting one song on the website.

I fully agree with "Getting music related to the newcomer is just common sense", because it's the logical conclusion.

The extra element of speculation comes in with the scarcity of music reveals.

For example, Series X only has a single chance to get new music on the site. Is it (A) going to be saved for a newcomer, or (B) release it during the downtime between reveals? If (B), given the decision made, Series X is not getting a newcomer, which is why its music is filler.

The Happy Home Designer music, looking at source code, was scheduled to go up before the direct delay, yet it was postponed. And it was postponed when the song has absolutely no connection to Isabelle. So why bother delaying it? It's not like it would spoil Isabelle's reveal like it would if it were Bloody Tears or Gangplank Galleon.

She's literally the star of Happy Home Designer. It wouldn't actually confirm/disconfirm her playability, but it still is very connected to her. So maybe it was just delayed a week so it'd happen after the direct that had a new AC game revealed.

 

[Murlough]

It's possible, but I don't think they want to divert any attention from Lets Go by revealing something Smash related next to it.

How dare they show something worth watching next to the traaaash. :^)

(I'm kidding (sorta) don't hate me)

 

[Nethermoosen]

I don't think Nintendo would do a direct in November, since their going to be pushing Lets Go Pikachu and Eevee for their Black Friday/Thanksgiving release.

I agree, but for different reasons. There will be physical copies shipping around the world and somebody could pay somebody and another somebody has an early copy. Leaks galore

I imagine there is a lot in place to keep that from happening, but a month from official release is a dangerous time for information.

 

[Exalt4747]

I really just want confirmation on if Incineroar is in or not at this point.

 

[Chumpodile]

It's possible, but I don't think they want to divert any attention from Lets Go by revealing something Smash related next to it.

what if the one new pokemon in Lets Go is also a newcomer