Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[drag0nscythe]

The theory relies on a lot of assumptions, and I mean a lot. It's the main reason why it comes off as so ridiculous.
- The designer had to have made the decision knowing the entire roster, and was making an elaborate pattern specifically because of the final roster rather than the simpler and more likely situation of them knowing how many characters there were, and wanting to make the sides look good or interesting.
- The box's art cannot and will not be changed.
- The game's announcements have to be INCREDIBLY frontloaded, with all but two characters revealed in the first 13 weeks since E3 with only two characters to show off in the latter 13 weeks. That's comically frontloaded.

I know people want to lower their expectations REALLY badly, but it's ending up just being used to beat down peoples' excitement for the game when its basis is incredibly shaky. It makes me really not like it, especially when it's passed off with "nobody wants it to be right", despite a lot of the same people working really hard to be (or at least sound) entirely correct about it.

It makes me incredibly tired. It's going to be a long few weeks with this box thing.

https://smashboards.com/threads/smash-ultimate-discussion.434391/post-22439659

There is more to it then that.
Think of the entire package, CSS, Sakurai's comments, the box theory, the music theory. All at once. And It is an assumption to assume they will change outside the addition of missing characters.

 

[Pakky]

No...please, no...

5 is such a mixed bag, on one hand you have perfect Juri and then you have him and his weird banana hair flops.

Ha I replied to myself (totally meant to do that...)

 

[ShadowTheHedgehogZ]

This leak seems legit most people think they're coming
https://youtu.be/pXlqJ2kysIc

 

[Megadoomer]

Until recently i haven't seen so many people fanatical over a cardboard box since MAYBE some metal gear solid parodies. Seriously its a Cardboard box with pictures on it not the Da Vinci Code of Smash Ultimate

Trust me, nobody here is on Snake's or Big Boss's level when it comes to cardboard boxes.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Slight height differences don't matter, Lucina was made relatively taller in Smash so that her height difference from Marth was negligible. And since Spring Man's and Ribbon Girl's body structures are that of a generic fit human male and female (just with the springy/ribbon arms), I don't think they would be different enough to prevent being Echoing (as evident by the male Wii Fit Trainer being an alt-costume of the female Wii Fit Trainer, with the same exact hitboxes/hurtboxes).

That said I'm not sure Ribbon Girl would be made an Echo of Spring Man, but at the least I think it's workable.

Well just might have to change my prediction list one more then because ARMS is surely guaranteed to be DLC.

 

[staindgrey]

But that's also assuming that the only other echo fighter we'll get is a 3rd party one. Why even introduce the concept of Echo fighters if you only introduce 5? (7 I guess since Dark Pit and Lucina got placed as them). Why even give the option to hide them in the corner? That number seems way too small to me to add a feature like that.

To me, in all honesty, they just happened to take out 8 characters for the sake of making the box look more even with 2 open spaces. With one extra space it looks worse. I think it's as simple as that. Tbh, Imo it's better to assume that rather than to assume that Ken is the only other echo fighter the game will have left. Seems SUPER off to me if that's the reality.

Disagree on both points. There's no reason to group by nines in that exact order, then change the order in only one group of nine, so that the blank three spaces become a blank two spaces. If this were merely concept art with no finality to it, they wouldn't leave the open boxes at all.

Further, I feel like five echo characters sounds just right. They likely worried about the fact that (assuming box theory is correct) five of only eleven newcomers were just straight up clones, with one of them being somewhat a semi-clone, so they gave them a fancy title to state outright, "these guys are just Lucinas; we're putting them in so you get more characters". Imagine if they hadn't addressed echo characters in the E3 reveal. This forum would be angry over so many clones.

 

[bbybae]

It should be noted that upon closer inspection this probably not an actual image of the final product.

Look carefully at the background of the portrait side.

what are you referring to?

 

[dezeray112]

I doubt he wants to, but I guarantee he'd get a better reception here. Most of us believe he has legitimate sources, and I think the people who still don't believe him would be mature enough to not pester him.

Personally, I think even though there are a some claims that he has yet to prove (which could still happen), Verg has already shown credence in terms of what he claimed so far.

EDIT: Sometimes it is OK if you don't want to believe in something, but don't call out or even be rude to those who believe.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Until recently i haven't seen so many people fanatical over a cardboard box since MAYBE some metal gear solid parodies. Seriously its a Cardboard box with pictures on it not the Da Vinci Code of Smash Ultimate

This gives past Smash speculation too much credit.
In brawl people looked at clouds. In smash 4 people measured shadows and looked at trophy segements as hints. Just recently peopled looked at ****ing furniture.

Like can we not pretend that wasn't a popular theory only a few weeks ago and then go "Box?! What crazy Smash speculation!" This happens all the time in Smash speculation. People just don't like it this time because it's not confirming all your most wanted characters.

 

[BlueMagician]

This is a small detail I found in Ultimate. It took two games, but he finally now smiles when losing. Why did they make such strange change for Brawl and Smash 4? It might have been to cater for competitive gamers, but why such strange change?
View attachment 164941

Maybe they needed to balance things out? With Ridley and Dark Samus plus vets like Red, there's a few more stone-faced clappers now.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Disagree on both points. There's no reason to group by nines in that exact order, then change the order in only one group of nine, so that the blank three spaces become a blank two spaces. If this were merely concept art with no finality to it, they wouldn't leave the open boxes at all.

Further, I feel like five echo characters sounds just right. They likely worried about the fact that (assuming box theory is correct) five of only eleven newcomers were just straight up clones, with one of them being somewhat a semi-clone, so they gave them a fancy title to state outright, "these guys are just Lucinas; we're putting them in so you get more characters". Imagine if they hadn't addressed echo characters in the E3 reveal. This forum would be angry over so many clones.

https://smashboards.com/threads/smash-ultimate-discussion.434391/post-22439659

Missing space is an echo.
Other than that, how would the CSS look with these extra characters?
How would the box look with the already committed design. No point in putting effort into that style if there were plans to abandon it later. just leave the side blank.

 

[Pazzo.]

So last post didn't work but let me retry with this:

Spoiler: Can we talk about Smash Ultimate Boxes? I've been dying to talk about them.

Compare both mockups. Now imagine if I tried to make an argument that the first image was the final roster because of how the characters appear spaced. Basically, both are computer generated images and not actual pictures of a physical product.

 

[staindgrey]

The theory relies on a lot of assumptions, and I mean a lot. It's the main reason why it comes off as so ridiculous.
- The designer had to have made the decision knowing the entire roster, and was making an elaborate pattern specifically because of the final roster rather than the simpler and more likely situation of them knowing how many characters there were, and wanting to make the sides look good or interesting.
- The box's art cannot and will not be changed.
- The game's announcements have to be INCREDIBLY frontloaded, with all but two characters revealed in the first 13 weeks since E3 with only two characters to show off in the latter 13 weeks. That's comically frontloaded.

I know people want to lower their expectations REALLY badly, but it's ending up just being used to beat down peoples' excitement for the game when its basis is incredibly shaky. It makes me really not like it, especially when it's passed off with "nobody wants it to be right", despite a lot of the same people working really hard to be (or at least sound) entirely correct about it.

It makes me incredibly tired. It's going to be a long few weeks with this box thing.

That first one isn't really an assumption. That's... kind of how things work.

If this were a placeholder box art that just said "Smash Bros. Ultimate" released a year ago, that is something that's going to be changed. Something released on official social media and given to all major retailers this close to the game going gold, particularly something following such a distinct order, is certainly indicative of the final design. Nintendo isn't just hiding things from their design team responsible for making their expensive special edition look good, just to make them do an overhaul within the next couple weeks. (And as someone who works in marketing and promotional design, doing so would piss me off royally.)

 

[ErenJager]

Everyone thinks incinaroar is #69.

Idk, I think if we cast aside verge and the box for one moment.

Doesnt another Fire Emblem character make sense?

Tharja #69

You know it's true.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

We aren't "assuming" anything, the math is 100% logical and certainly right. It's not that they can't change the box, but as it stands, it's sound

You just assumed that your logic is right however. ''It's not as they can't change the box."

There's your problem.

That's why all of this is stupid.

That variable is a huge one. A huge one.

 

[staindgrey]

https://smashboards.com/threads/smash-ultimate-discussion.434391/post-22439659

Missing space is an echo.
Other than that, how would the CSS look with these extra characters?
How would the box look with the already committed design. No point in putting effort into that style if there were plans to abandon it later. just leave the side blank.

I'm confused. Aren't we agreeing?

 

[Mutsukki]

So last post didn't work but let me retry with this:

Spoiler: Can we talk about Smash Ultimate Boxes? I've been dying to talk about them.

View attachment 164946

View attachment 164947

Compare both mockups. Now imagine if I tried to make an argument that the first image was the final roster because of how the characters appear spaced. Basically, both are computer generated images and not actual pictures of a physical product.

You are missing the point. The illustration has been gradually updated, but it's still the same size. This box works with a grid of 9 characters per side, and there's one very telling notable exception to the rule, which is where Ken fits. Those two are not even remotely the same thing. And by the way, usually designers work with the actual box size to do these mock ups.

NOW, the squares could be reshrinked and realocated on a bigger grid, but we'd need quite a few bit of newcomers for that to work.

You just assumed that your logic is right however. ''It's not as they can't change the box."

There's your problem.

That's why all of this is stupid.

That variable is a huge one. A huge one.

Not that much, it's actually the most unlikely case. As it stands now, there's a perfect grid for what it has been sugested. Whataver changes they make will have to take that into account. So we either get those two or we still have like... 8 or 9 newcomers left lol

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So last post didn't work but let me retry with this:

Spoiler: Can we talk about Smash Ultimate Boxes? I've been dying to talk about them.

View attachment 164946

View attachment 164947

Compare both mockups. Now imagine if I tried to make an argument that the first image was the final roster because of how the characters appear spaced. Basically, both are computer generated images and not actual pictures of a physical product.

Yeah, it bugs me why this particular box has been treated as untouchable and the one truth but previous attempts to figure out how many characters are left from things like say, websites or advertisements have been brushed off.

Random side thought, that one echo could turn out to be Medusa.

 

[Paperchampion23]

You make it sound like five is a really low number. After the first announcement, I thought we'd only get two after Daisy, five in total.

Melee didn't add fourteen roster padding clones, it added six. Five new echo fighters is perfectly good.

That's not my point. I'm asking why blow their load so early with them if that's it? Why not wait until the final direct to show more? I personally think we are getting more because of this. Additionally, 5 is a small number when you are grouping them and labeling them something different. They could have just been numbered characters like other clones were.

I'm totally cool with the numbers btw, just something doesn't make sense to me. When you add a sorting feature like hiding echo fighters, I feel like it was added because there may be quite a few to cause a hindrance in the character select screen.

Ken and Incineroar do not strike me as final characters. Call it just a feeling, I don't think the roster is ending with them.

 

[majora_787]

Honestly, if we're going to be using dumb stuff as basis for theories I'd at least rather we use dumb stuff to justify things that make speculation more fun, instead of less fun. Clouds, shadows, and furniture are dumb, yeah, but they sure make speculation more exciting for people interested if nothing else.

 

[Paperchampion23]

You are missing the point. The illustration has been gradually updated, but it's still the same size. This box works with a grid of 9 characters per side, and there's one very telling notable exception to the rule, which is where Ken fits. Those two are not even remotely the same thing. And by the way, usually designers work with the actual box size to do these mock ups.

NOW, the squares could be reshrinked and realocated on a bigger grid, but we'd need quite a few bit of newcomers for that to work.

Or they could be put somewhere else in the box. I think we are limiting the idea that characters HAVE to be in the sides. If there are, let's say, 5 remaining characters, the final 4 could just be on the back. Who knows.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Wasn't the second Mario icon specifically used for Mario Kart tracks?

There was a second Mario icon?

 

[Deleted member]

There was a second Mario icon?

When they show the My Music screen in the Smash Direct, there's a second Mario icon. It isn't scrolled onto, but I'm betting it's Mario Kart.

Just give Mario Kart it's own icon; the Blue Shell.

EDIT:

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

We aren't "assuming" anything, the math is 100% logical and certainly right. It's not that they can't change the box, but as it stands, it's sound

I think the problem that we're encountering is that people think there's "no way" there's only those two left because of the blowout we got with the 8.8 Direct and the split reception to Isabelle whem in fact it is incredibly possible we get just those two. If we take Smash For's list of "from the ground up" characters we got x3 then the tow retcon echoes and the semi-clone(I say semi because he has different weight, move attributes, animations, and a different down special) so not including those 3 we have 20 arguably 21 with Doc from the ground up characters including DLC and base.

In Ultimate we have() and probably :ultinceneroar: and that's already 12 FTGU characters in base with and likely as echoes AND quality of life improvements on, well, everyone. That's not even getting into the improvements to the mechanics, rehauls on all stages, across the board graphics upgrades, new modes, AND balancing on a roster of nearly 80 different characters. This game has had a gargantuan amount of content added even compared to For.

People REALLY don't realize how much we've gotten already. It's insane. And yet, there's "no way" Ken and Inceneroar are it because of how much they showed in August. It is very VERY likely that that is the end of the base game and DLC is right around the corner. I guarantee they already have a DLC plan, maybe even a season pass, and yet Inceneroar and Ken is "it". As if we didn't get spoiled already.

 

[Mutsukki]

Honestly, if we're going to be using dumb stuff as basis for theories I'd at least rather we use dumb stuff to justify things that make speculation more fun, instead of less fun. Clouds, shadows, and furniture are dumb, yeah, but they sure make speculation more exciting for people interested if nothing else.

I honestly could not care less. This theory isn't fun because it's definitely the most concrete one we have ever gotten. Usually, if people are complaining "awww but that is no FUN", it's because it's usually right.

Or they could be put somewhere else in the box. I think we are limiting the idea that characters HAVE to be in the sides. If there are, let's say, 5 remaining characters, the final 4 could just be on the back. Who knows.

As a design student I can tell you no one would want to pass a chance to make a perfect grid like this lol. And unless there are more characters on the bottom (doubt it), back (used to advertise game and modes) or top (very very unlikely), this has to be it.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Honestly, if we're going to be using dumb stuff as basis for theories I'd at least rather we use dumb stuff to justify things that make speculation more fun, instead of less fun. Clouds, shadows, and furniture are dumb, yeah, but they sure make speculation more exciting for people interested if nothing else.

Yea that was kind of my point. And I get that, which is why I hope it's wrong.

At the same time I would like to control my hype and now's about a good time to start doing that. But to each their own! I don't really care whether or not people think the box means anything, but the community acting like it's less worthy of speculation than two chairs is just silly.

 

[Deleted member]

If the box could be changed, why would it be organized as if it was the finished product? Just saying "it could be changed" doesn't make that one inconsistent disappear, I have yet to see someone explain to me why the unfinished mockup would have been designed with all the characters in mind that doesn't involve "they wanted to make it look nice".

 

[Nethermoosen]

Oh you mean that spacing that we can't even see to know this for sure? The spacing we're just assuming is so because of one side of the box.

They aren’t assuming the space. They aren’t assuming. The characters are in groups of 9. One of the groups is Toon Link through Mii Fighter.
The next group we see is Corrin to K. Rool.

What characters come after Mii Fighter and before Corrin? Palutena through Cloud. There’s 8. All the rest are 9.

It isn’t an assumption. If they kept the pattern, then Corrin should have been in the group after Cloud and the next should have started with Bayonetta.

That isn’t what happened. So people are like... “Why?” And that’s the story so far.

People just want an answer that disproves it. Not an assumption.

Saying it is true is an assumption, but so is saying it’s false.

I don’t want an assumption. I don’t want to be told it’s “stupid.” I don’t want to be told it “makes sense.”

I want someone to show me 2 more unique characters. I want someone to show me the other side of the box. I want someone to show me an echo that isn’t an echo of character in the Palutena through Cloud group. I want the mock-up artist to release an official statement saying “We just left a space because...we wanted to. Get off my back, ya kids!”

Something real. Something objective. That way I actually KNOW.

Saying it is stupid, even if true, still doesn’t prove it right now.

 

[Paperchampion23]

I honestly could not care less. This theory isn't fun because it's definitely the most concrete one we have ever gotten. Usually, if people are complaining "awww but that is no FUN", it's because it's usually right.



As a design student I can tell you no one would want to pass a chance to make a perfect grid like this lol. And unless there are more characters on the bottom (doubt it), back (used to advertise game and modes) or top (very very unlikely), this has to be it.

I mean, smash 4 had a decent amount of characters in the back with features from the game. It doesn't mean anything as packaging always is subject to change. I've seen enough packaging change from things I've bought to know that people in marketing and design are clearly not given all of the information.

This box will not look like this on release, that much is certain.

 

[majora_787]

I don't really have an issue with the number of fighters we'd be getting, or even an issue with the last reveals being Incineroar and Ken. My issue is more the complete lack of an attempt to pace reveals whatsoever. Getting nine character reveals, and then getting two reveals in the exact same span of time. If there were that few characters, it does kind of make you wonder why we would get a direct with five characters in it instead of just two (Simon and Richter), then save the other stuff for closer to launch.

I know wondering doesn't amount to much, but. It's really jarring.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Yea that was kind of my point. And I get that, which is why I hope it's wrong.

At the same time I would like to control my hype and now's about a good time to start doing that. But to each their own! I don't really care whether or not people think the box means anything, but the community acting like it's less worthy of speculation than to chairs is just silly.

The chairs was silly fun.

This is undertones of pessimism three months before release based on a mock up of an unfinished box art with a lot of variables and assumptions mixed into the logic of it all that just doesn't make much sense on top of the very little sense it does have.

I can get tempering your expectations, but using a silly theory about a box that can change is just....weird.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

That's not my point. I'm asking why blow their load so early with them? Additionally, 5 is a small number when you are grouping them and labeling them something different. They could have just been numbered characters like other clones were.

I'm totally cool with the numbers btw, just something doesn't make sense to me. When you add a sorting feature like hiding echo fighters, I feel like it was added because there may be quite a few to cause a hindrance in the character select screen.

Yeah this is kind of suspect to me as well, I figured we’d be going insane with Echoes when the concept was announced.

Maybe it’ll be more for Echo Packs in the dlc. Or we only actually get this many.

I might have looked into the concept being made too much, considering the amount of stuff already in the game.

 

[Mutsukki]

I mean, smash 4 had a decent amount of characters in the back with features from the game. It doesn't mean anything as packaging always is subject to change. I've seen enough packaging change from things I've bought to know that people in marketing and design are clearly not given all of the information.

This box will not look like this on release, that much is certain.

Why would you think the people in the design department were not given enough information? Not enough information to SKIP a character in their 9 per 9 count? That's... kinda delusional. Even if the weren't told who exactly the characters were, they were told at least "leave a spot here and here, there will be another icon later". These things aren't done a month before release you know.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

This leak seems legit most people think they're coming
https://youtu.be/pXlqJ2kysIc

Seems legit bro.

For real though, this one's fake since it lacks Incineroar.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

That's not my point. I'm asking why blow their load so early with them if that's it? Why not wait until the final direct to show more? I personally think we are getting more because of this. Additionally, 5 is a small number when you are grouping them and labeling them something different. They could have just been numbered characters like other clones were.

I'm totally cool with the numbers btw, just something doesn't make sense to me. When you add a sorting feature like hiding echo fighters, I feel like it was added because there may be quite a few to cause a hindrance in the character select screen.

Including Ken, there’s 7. That’s almost 10% of the roster, which is an good enough chunk.

It was probably also done to appease people who’ve been vocally complaining about series’ having too many “slots,” even though slots don’t matter at all.

Ken and Incineroar do not strike me as final characters. Call it just a feeling, I don't think the roster is ending with them.

Obligatory Olimar and Shulk reponse

 

[Opossum]

I've yet to see a satisfactory explanation for why a supposedly unfinished beta box design would leave a spot for Ken readily apparent. Until someone can justify that, the Box Theory is as good as confirmed to me.

 

[Paperchampion23]

Yeah this is kind of suspect to me as well, I figured we’d be going insane with Echoes when the concept was announced.

Maybe it’ll be more for Echo Packs in the dlc. Or we only actually get this many.

I might have looked into the concept being made too much, considering the amount of stuff already in the game.

I agree, but I wasn't expecting like 20 echoes, just not 5 lol.

This isn't something I can argue with people anyway, it's just a gut feeling that the concept of Echo fighters was introduced because the plan on showing us a decent number of them. Ending it with a 3rd party echo seems odd in my opinion, but there is no reason to argue it since none of us know the true reasoning behind the box design and how many characters are truly left.

 

[uebo7]

It should be noted that upon closer inspection this probably not an actual image of the final product.


Look carefully at the background of the portrait side.

No one is saying it is, and this means literally nothing at all. Of course it's not a photo of a ready product.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I've yet to see a satisfactory explanation for why a supposedly unfinished beta box design would leave a spot for Ken readily apparent. Until someone can justify that, the Box Theory is as good as confirmed to me.

That it could be for Medusa?

I mean the box is official, Vegieburger isn't.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

The chairs was silly fun.

This is undertones of pessimism three months before release based on a mock up of an unfinished box art with a lot of variables and assumptions mixed into the logic of it all that just doesn't make much sense on top of the very little sense it does have.

I can get tempering your expectations, but using a silly theory about a box that can change is just....weird.

For me the box theory made me really look at how much time we have left and how it's totally possible that we could just get Ken + 1. It also has made me super excited that it's such an easy theory to crush, just one other echo or unique newcomer and boom, doors wide open for anything.

...I think that's what I like about this theory. I was legit predicting 8 - 10 more newcomers before the 9/13 direct and this brought be back to reality, with a more tame hope for a couple more newcomers.

But again totally just me and I get if it's not everyone's thing to not wanna go to the very last day hoping all of your favorite characters are in. That's burned me before and it sucked and I can wait for dlc.