Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Paperchampion23]

Why would you think the people in the design department were not given enough information? Not enough information to SKIP a character in their 9 per 9 count? That's... kinda delusional. Even if the weren't told who exactly the characters were, they were told at least "leave a spot here and here, there will be another icon later". These things aren't done a month before release you know.

Pretty sure it's delusional to think that the marketing team knows everything Sakurai does. That's how **** gets leaked. I'm sorry but they don't know everything, it's why we haven't gotten a full leak yet. Nobody knows squat about the whole roster.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I've yet to see a satisfactory explanation for why a supposedly unfinished beta box design would leave a spot for Ken readily apparent. Until someone can justify that, the Box Theory is as good as confirmed to me.

If Isabelle is added in but not the last spot, then that means that there is perfect symmetry to the two sides. One empty spot at the bottom right on both sides. Boom. Nailed it.

 

[Mutsukki]

Pretty sure it's delusional to think that the marketing team knows everything Sakurai does. That's how **** gets leaked. I'm sorry but they don't know everything, it's why we haven't gotten a full leak yet. Nobody knows squat about the whole roster.

Did you just plainly ignore the second half of my post

 

[Paperchampion23]

Including Ken, there’s 7. That’s almost 10% of the roster, which is an good enough chunk.

It was probably also done to appease people who’ve been vocally complaining about series’ having too many “slots,” even though slots don’t matter at all.


Obligatory Olimar and Shulk reponse

Olimar and Shulk were not the "final" characters. Bith Brawl and 4 had 3-4 hidden characters in the game. Ultimate doesn't have that, and it's being done publically now.

 

[Opossum]

Also, to the folks saying "nobody would know the full roster yet, so why would the marketing team?"

The game has been rated by the ESRB for a while now. As shown by last time, they definitely know the full roster. There's no reason for the marketing team NOT to know by now.

 

[staindgrey]

I think the problem that we're encountering is that people think there's "no way" there's only those two left because of the blowout we got with the 8.8 Direct and the split reception to Isabelle whem in fact it is incredibly possible we get just those two. If we take Smash For's list of "from the ground up" characters we got x3 then the tow retcon echoes and the semi-clone(I say semi because he has different weight, move attributes, animations, and a different down special) so not including those 3 we have 20 arguably 21 with Doc from the ground up characters including DLC and base.

In Ultimate we have() and probably :ultinceneroar: and that's already 12 FTGU characters in base with and likely as echoes AND quality of life improvements on, well, everyone. That's not even getting into the improvements to the mechanics, rehauls on all stages, across the board graphics upgrades, new modes, AND balancing on a roster of nearly 80 different characters. This game has had a gargantuan amount of content added even compared to For.

People REALLY don't realize how much we've gotten already. It's insane. And yet, there's "no way" Ken and Inceneroar are it because of how much they showed in August. It is very VERY likely that that is the end of the base game and DLC is right around the corner. I guarantee they already have a DLC plan, maybe even a season pass, and yet Inceneroar and Ken is "it". As if we didn't get spoiled already.

And if you remove DLC entirely from the Smash 4 list, the numbers line up like this:

Smash 4: ()ultrosalina: /
Ultimate: ()

/

 

[majora_787]

I mean, in the same time we have left we saw 9 newcomer announcements. And "less" isn't necessarily "more realistic", especially when the crux of it is a lot of assumption. There was a brief period where people thought Smash 4 would be smaller than melee because of the existence of a 3DS version. That's less, but not really "more realistic" because of it.

 

[Nethermoosen]

Pretty sure it's delusional to think that the marketing team knows everything Sakurai does. That's how **** gets leaked. I'm sorry but they don't know everything, it's why we haven't gotten a full leak yet. Nobody knows squat about the whole roster.

They could still be instructed to pattern it that way on only one side of the box and be told not to ask questions.

Why would they be told to make the box that way? For product accuracy. People should know what they are buying. The box is a part of what they are buying. No one wants people attempting to sue and cause legal issues because they bought a box that doesn’t have pictures more like what they saw in the display photo. Because someone would.

 

[Momotsuki]

At this point I'm starting to lean towards the Square Enix fighter being DLC rather than appearing in the base game. It would explain why Verge can't get a solid idea on who they are. Besides, the most likely Square Enix fighter would make an incredible post-launch hype-up.

 

[Potato_]

I've yet to see a satisfactory explanation for why a supposedly unfinished beta box design would leave a spot for Ken readily apparent. Until someone can justify that, the Box Theory is as good as confirmed to me.

My best rebuttal? Ken and Incineroar are next, the box already had those characters on it but they hid them as to not spoil them. That's all I got.

Now you might think "well duh, that would mean they're most likely all we get" but I do want to share this comment I made in another thread:

" There are characters that are just not going to be on the box. I've seen this theory of "secret" characters proposed before and I really like it, they reveal characters in a trailer but don't advertise them on the boxes of the game to keep the idea of secret characters alive. A casual player probably wouldn't see that trailer and would be legitimately surprised when they found the character. "

Basically they would treat those characters like the secret characters previously, they don't show up on promotional boxart, images, etc. It's shaky, but it's the most interesting theory I've got until we get more info.

 

[Paperchampion23]

Did you just plainly ignore the second half of my post

I read it. I 100% disagree that the marketing team is told anything like that. That is prone to leaks. It always does lead to leaks. It's HOW many games are leaked.

 

[Opossum]

If Isabelle is added in but not the last spot, then that means that there is perfect symmetry to the two sides. One empty spot at the bottom right on both sides. Boom. Nailed it.

So that's how Ultimate ends. Not with a bang, but with a pupper.

 

[Paperchampion23]

They could still be instructed to pattern it that way on only one side of the box and be told not to ask questions.

Why would they be told to make the box that way? For product accuracy. People should know what they are buying. The box is a part of what they are buying. No one wants people attempting to sue and cause legal issues because they bought a box that doesn’t have pictures more like what they saw in the display photo. Because someone would.

Guys....Go to gamestop or EB games and look at display boxes, they look nothing like their final release lmao.

A box is not the game lol.

 

[Mutsukki]

I read it. I 100% disagree that the marketing team is told anything like that. That is prone to leaks. It always does lead to leaks. It's HOW many games are leaked.

...That's literally what just happened. Weird box grid is giving us pretty much the answer to the remainder of the roster. I still want to hear your argument to why they would break the 9 character rule even once on the box, exactly where Ken would be added.

 

[Momotsuki]

So that's how Ultimate ends. Not with a bang, but with a pupper.

The immense salt wave would be more tolerable if it was at the hands - er, paws - wait, no, the stubs of the cinnamon roll.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

For me the box theory made me really look at how much time we have left and how it's totally possible that we could just get Ken + 1. It also has made me super excited that it's such an easy theory to crush, just one other echo or unique newcomer and boom, doors wide open for anything.

...I think that's what I like about this theory. I was legit predicting 8 - 10 more newcomers before the 9/13 direct and this brought be back to reality, with a more tame hope for a couple more newcomers.

But again totally just me and I get if it's not everyone's thing to not wanna go to the very last day hoping all of your favorite characters are in. That's burned me before and it sucked and I can wait for dlc.

I think what's getting everyone down is the undertone of "stop speculating now, it's pointless". And the fact it's two or three pieces of circumstantial evidence stuck together and being treated as the one truth.

If it was "only two characters left" it'd be cool, if it was "Ken and John Cena are in" it'd be cool but they fact they're sticking both together removes all scope for interpretation.

The 108 stages doesn't directly contradict it but it raises a lot of questions, like why would those 5 stages be hidden until now?

 

[P.Kat]

So there are teams now? Alright fine, I'm with Team CoroCoro then.

Has this whole box theory thing completely killed anyone else’s hype for the game?
Now that we probably know everything (except for DLC, and we’re gonna have to wait even longer for that anyways), it’s like what’s the point? I don’t think even Spirits will get me hype for this game now. This combined with Nintendo’s online service has drained me.

Nope, can't let something like this crush your enthusiasm, just keep moving forward, hope for your wanted characters, and remember what love about the game so far

 

[Opossum]

I read it. I 100% disagree that the marketing team is told anything like that. That is prone to leaks. It always does lead to leaks. It's HOW many games are leaked.

Nintendo has far more control over their own marketing team than they do an outside company, and yet the ESRB knows the full roster since the game is rated. There's no reason to think marketing doesn't know.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

I agree, but I wasn't expecting like 20 echoes, just not 5 lol.

This isn't something I can argue with people anyway, it's just a gut feeling that the concept of Echo fighters was introduced because the plan on showing us a decent number of them. Ending it with a 3rd party echo seems odd in my opinion, but there is no reason to argue it since none of us know the true reasoning behind the box design and how many characters are truly left.

I just figured Echoes were Sakurais way of including some fan favorites that he either didn’t want to give full development time to, or couldn’t.

Sakurai tries to please as many people as possible, honestly I don’t think Ken is too weird of an echo to end on though. Back when he was first introduced he was basically Ryus echo. Heck the two of them even created the term “Shotoclone” which several fighting games have based several special moves and move inputs off of.

Even though as I stated pages and pages ago, Ken has diverged from Ryu, people still remember him from SF2 being a Ryu clone who had better kicks and fire.

Although with how Ryu takes a bit from SF4 as well, I’d be a little disappointed if they couldn’t do an Isabelle with Ken considering that’s how much the two have differed since SF2.

Then again if the box theory is ******** then I can totally hope/expect Shadow as well as Ken. But I can even in DLC.

 

[staindgrey]

Pretty sure it's delusional to think that the marketing team knows everything Sakurai does. That's how **** gets leaked. I'm sorry but they don't know everything, it's why we haven't gotten a full leak yet. Nobody knows squat about the whole roster.

The NDAs they signed are the reason for not having a leak.

There is a ton of planning that goes into these releases that a lot of the people here aren't accounting for. Nintendo didn't say, "Here's all of the art we're willing to give you right now. Make us an official box design to promote our game. But also, that isn't all of them, and we're not going to tell you what they are."

That is delusional.

 

[Paperchampion23]

...That's literally what just happened. Weird box grid is giving us pretty much the answer to the remainder of the roster. I still want to hear your argument to why they would break the 9 character rule even once on the box, exactly where Ken would be added.

Except you are assuming it's giving you the remainder of the roster. All of this is based in people's assumptions on the matter and Vergeben leaking Ken. That's literally it.

Nobody has any basis for the box being accurate of anything. It's all an attempt to connect dots that you deem true. Ever heard of confirmation bias? That's what half this forum and the internet is doing with this box. You think something is right, you will believe all of the evidence points to your thought process.


Edit: Don't bother quoting me because I'm done replying to this. The argument is going nowhere and there is 0 way to prove anyones arguments on the damn box. You believe what you want to believe.

 

[Potato_]

And if you remove DLC entirely from the Smash 4 list, the numbers line up like this:

Smash 4: ()ultrosalina: /
Ultimate: ()

/

To count Pokemon Trainer as a newcomer is disingenuous. It should be just Squirtle and Ivysaur. Also Young Link and Pichu use almost the same movesets as their respective "parent" characters from 4, I'd imagine they didn't take long to develop, possibly not much longer than the echoes.

Other than that I agree with what you're getting at with this post.

 

[Nethermoosen]

Guys....Go to gamestop or EB games and look at display boxes, they look nothing like their final release lmao.

A box is not the game lol.

We know. But where is proof? That’s all it’s about. Finding a boxart that wasn’t final for another game, even a past smash, won’t prove that this one was isn’t accurate. It’s an assumption. A reasonable assumption, to be sure, but still an assumption.

 

[KMDP]

This is a good discussion topic - who do you support from before, and who have you gotten to know because of the forums?

For me: I never really did the speculation thing for Brawl. After release, I woud fantasize about Midna or Ivy (Soul Calibur) in the game, but nothing more than that.

Sm4sh speculation was mostly revolving around returning vets for me. The big ones I wanted to see return were the Pokémon Trainer as a team (I thought the idea was genius and they were all really fun to play), Mewtwo (the most painful cut since I love Gen 1, and he's so cool), and Wolf (for my cousin, since he always played Wolf). Also Ganondorf, but he ended up in (albeit with a severe derplord makeover). But that was also when I joined the boards, so I got swept up in speculation, particularly for Rildey and K.Rool, despite never having played a Metriod or DKC game. I still supported Midna for myself as well. I will admit that this led to my disillusion with Sm4sh, since I had so many characters I liked and none of them made it in at all.

Now, I still was on the K.Rool and Ridley trains (I finally did play DK64) because I'd gotten swept up from those threads a few years ago. But seeing all of my vets return was truly the best part, and I'll admit that Squirtle actually hyped me a bit more than Ridley. My current wanted list now is mostly my own now that various third-party doors have been blown open - Dovahkiin since I love the Elder Scrolls series and the game was beautiful, despite the game being Western and only having a 6-years-later port as its connection to Nintendo; and Tails since he was my first ever video game character back with Sonic 2 (even though I really don't know what happened in the Sonic series after that, I just know that Tails is Sonic's BFF), despite Sonic already having a rep. I still drag Midna along even though she's disconfirmed - I'm of the opinion that DLC can promote a character easily, it just hasn't happened yet - or comes in her Twili form as a Zelda echo. Ivy is still there, but I'm not going to go out of my way for her. But Urbosa did also steal the spotlight in BotW for me so I'm for her as well. Skull Kid I'll admit is a bit bandwagony. I loved Majora's Mask, but I'd take Midna or Urbosa over him. Still, he's leagues above any other potential newcomer for me.

Well, I certainly wasn't introduced to any new characters after joining the forums; I was soft supporting most of the characters on my list already.

The theory relies on a lot of assumptions, and I mean a lot. It's the main reason why it comes off as so ridiculous.
- The designer had to have made the decision knowing the entire roster, and was making an elaborate pattern specifically because of the final roster rather than the simpler and more likely situation of them knowing how many characters there were, and wanting to make the sides look good or interesting.
- The box's art cannot and will not be changed.
- The game's announcements have to be INCREDIBLY frontloaded, with all but two characters revealed in the first 13 weeks since E3 with only two characters to show off in the latter 13 weeks. That's comically frontloaded.

I know people want to lower their expectations REALLY badly, but it's ending up just being used to beat down peoples' excitement for the game when its basis is incredibly shaky. It makes me really not like it, especially when it's passed off with "nobody wants it to be right", despite a lot of the same people working really hard to be (or at least sound) entirely correct about it.

It makes me incredibly tired. It's going to be a long few weeks with this box thing.

You, sir or madam, speak the truth.

For me the box theory made me really look at how much time we have left and how it's totally possible that we could just get Ken + 1. It also has made me super excited that it's such an easy theory to crush, just one other echo or unique newcomer and boom, doors wide open for anything.

...I think that's what I like about this theory. I was legit predicting 8 - 10 more newcomers before the 9/13 direct and this brought be back to reality, with a more tame hope for a couple more newcomers.

But again totally just me and I get if it's not everyone's thing to not wanna go to the very last day hoping all of your favorite characters are in. That's burned me before and it sucked and I can wait for dlc.

If you believe box theory, we'd have to only get two more characters over the next two months, one of which is an Echo. This is certainly possible, but I consider it unlikely.

The chairs was silly fun.

This is undertones of pessimism three months before release based on a mock up of an unfinished box art with a lot of variables and assumptions mixed into the logic of it all that just doesn't make much sense on top of the very little sense it does have.

I can get tempering your expectations, but using a silly theory about a box that can change is just....weird.

I'm going to repost something I posted on the Isaac thread...

I've noticed that a lot of people vouching for Box Theory are those who've either:

1. Already got their most wanted (generally Ridley)
2. Don't care about any other character other than the one they want above all others (generally Geno or Skull Kid)
3. Already had their character disconfirmed (Ashley, Toad)

Make of that what you will.

Is this a solid thing? Nope, but it's just something I picked up from observation of the arguments.

 

[Mutsukki]

Except you are assuming it's giving you the remainder of the roster. All of this is based in people's assumptions on the matter and Vergeben leaking Ken. That's literally it.

Nobody has any basis for the box being accurate of anything. It's all an attempt to connect dots that you deem true. Ever heard of confirmation bias? That's what half this forum and the internet is doing with this box. You think something is right, you will believe all of the evidence points to your thought process.

Have you even checked what people are talking about? Like, it's VERY SIMPLE math and all people who detract it do is "lol well... we don't know!!!"

Please, take a moment and think about the placement of things and tell me it can be anything else when that's the only spot that is like that.

 

[Aurane]

Can we make this a game? Which characters do you play just so that you can spam a move over and over again?

Jigglypuff, down throw. Its an inside joke nobody here would get.

they see me Rollin'
they see me Rollin'
they see me Rollin'

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Nintendo has far more control over their own marketing team than they do an outside company, and yet the ESRB knows the full roster since the game is rated. There's no reason to think marketing doesn't know.

At the same time.

Isn't it a little insane to think they'd just say to the marketing team ''Go ahead and potentially spoil the fact there are two more left to them with your mock up 3 months ahead of release! That's fine. That's totally fine."

Especially considering how closely they've tried to play the game this time, with only one true hiccup being on their end with the Castlevania music mix up?

 

[Momotsuki]

Honestly I'm not sure why the box theory is still being argued over. There isn't anything left to discuss about it. There is no concrete evidence to confirm it or to deny it, so all we really have left to do with it at this point is wait and see. We've been running around in circles here and there's really little need for it.

 

[Nethermoosen]

The theory relies on a lot of assumptions, and I mean a lot. It's the main reason why it comes off as so ridiculous.
- The designer had to have made the decision knowing the entire roster, and was making an elaborate pattern specifically because of the final roster rather than the simpler and more likely situation of them knowing how many characters there were, and wanting to make the sides look good or interesting.
- The box's art cannot and will not be changed.
- The game's announcements have to be INCREDIBLY frontloaded, with all but two characters revealed in the first 13 weeks since E3 with only two characters to show off in the latter 13 weeks. That's comically frontloaded.

I know people want to lower their expectations REALLY badly, but it's ending up just being used to beat down peoples' excitement for the game when its basis is incredibly shaky. It makes me really not like it, especially when it's passed off with "nobody wants it to be right", despite a lot of the same people working really hard to be (or at least sound) entirely correct about it.

It makes me incredibly tired. It's going to be a long few weeks with this box thing.

Which is why it is called a theory or a hypothesis. The next step is proof.

 

[Mutsukki]

I've noticed that a lot of people vouching for Box Theory are those who've either:

1. already got their most wanted (generally Ridley)
2. don't care about any other character other than the one they want above all others (generally Geno or Skull Kid)
3. already had their character disconfirmed (Ashley, Toad)

Make of that what you will.

Um.... that would mean that people who detract for it, are the ones most emotionally invested on having more new characters than not, which would most definitely cloud their judgement because of their own bias.

If anything, this observation is worse for whatever group that don't vouch it.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Yeah regardless of the box, the marketing team defintely knows the roster. Maybe not every single marketing employee at Nintendo across the world, but defintely the one at head quarters. The game comes out in almost 2 months and the entire roster is going to be a big part of the marketing push.

But yeah this is regardless of the box. I just think it's silly when we imagine Smash as being locked away in a room that only Sakurai and his three closest employees can see the full roster lol.

 

[Captain Fun]

If I were to design a mockup of the boxart that is subject to change, I wouldn't leave those two blank spaces there. If the character portraits were going to be resized to fit more in the final product then there would be no need for that. I also wouldn't design the mockup with the apparent consideration of what the other side of the box looked like.

But that's just me. And that doesn't guarantee anything. Nobody can really say for sure how it will turn out, and it's perfectly reasonable to not put much stock into the theory. I don't think it's reasonable to dismiss everyone who gives the theory any consideration as being crazy or gullible, especially when the rebuttal amounts to "Sakurai would never disappoint me."

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Honestly I'm not sure why the box theory is still being argued over. There isn't anything left to discuss about it. There is no concrete evidence to confirm it or to deny it, so all we really have left to do with it at this point is wait and see. We've been running around in circles here and there's really little need for it.

Its because after the conversation settles, someone comes in the thread asking about it.

 

[Turnips and Daisies.]

To count Pokemon Trainer as a newcomer is disingenuous. It should be just Squirtle and Ivysaur. Also Young Link and Pichu use almost the same movesets as their respective "parent" characters from 4, I'd imagine they didn't take long to develop, possibly not much longer than the echoes.

Other than that I agree with what you're getting at with this post.

They probably did to be honest, since they have to be balanced from scratch.

 

[KMDP]

Um.... that would mean that people who detract for it, are the ones most emotionally invested on having more new characters than not, which would most definitely cloud their judgement because of their own bias.

If anything, this observation is worse for whatever group that don't vouch it.

You say that, but the intention of my point is that:

"I've already got this one character"/"I only want this one character"/"I'm not getting this one character" "-so I don't care about any others".

These arguments (which I'm not saying anyone has said) are also inherently biased.

 

[staindgrey]

To count Pokemon Trainer as a newcomer is disingenuous. It should be just Squirtle and Ivysaur. Also Young Link and Pichu use almost the same movesets as their respective "parent" characters from 4, I'd imagine they didn't take long to develop, possibly not much longer than the echoes.

Other than that I agree with what you're getting at with this post.

I was going by what I was quoting and how he laid it out with the Smash 4 DLC characters included. But you're right; PKMN Trainer isn't his own character.

But people tend to assume Pichu, Ice Climbers, Y. Link, etc. are comparable to echoes when they're really not. The only phase they skip in terms of character creation is the concept phase., since they can draw from their previous appearances. None of their data can be copied and pasted from Melee or Brawl; it's all remade from scratch within the new engine, with new hit and hurt boxes, weight and size values, attack properties, etc. to be balanced in a new game. They just get to skip the part where they're trying to imagine a moveset based on concept art.

 

[Flynn__]

So, something that I was thinking.

A lot of people say that it's possible that CoroCoro messed up accidentally writing '108 stages' instead of 103, but at the same time they think it's impossible that the person who made the design of the box messed up placing the characters? Maybe the fact that Palutena's group is only 8 characters is because of a mistake and not because of a hidden echo. I mean, it's a possibility.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

So that's how Ultimate ends. Not with a bang, but with a pupper.

You had a chance to make a Star Wars Prequel Joke and you ****in missed it. You ****in disgrace. I pity you.

 

[staindgrey]

Guys....Go to gamestop or EB games and look at display boxes, they look nothing like their final release lmao.

A box is not the game lol.

Those are also made by Gamestop/EB Games to increase the chance of preorders and are in no way official.

The box that sparked this discussion was made by Nintendo's in-house marketing team and released to the public only a couple months before the game is due to go gold.

 

[Aurane]

I'd rather it end with a pupper than a puppet. *clap*