Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[TheKnight]

Imagine the SE rep is literally just a guy with a shirt that says “Square Enix” on it and his name really is SE Rep

His introduction splash art would say
“SE Rep represents SE!”.

 

[Rocket Raccoon]

Vergeben’s sources don’t necessarily need to be working on Smash.

Someone in his line of sources has to be working on it or involved in it to some capacity. If the real leaker doesn't have access to the series symbol or anything to indicate otherwise then it's understandable. I just think the most likely person to leak would be on the dev tean.

 

[Aeon Lupin]

Part of me kinda feels bad for Vergeban, he's constantly getting bothered about stuff he doesn't know about. On the other hand, this is what he signed up for when he became a prominent leaker. The fact anyone still doubts him at this point is mind-boggling too.

I don't know. He clearly likes the attention. He reaps what he sows.

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

Honestly despite the possible absoloute bust of an ending nintendo may have trapped themselves into. This game overall has literally not given me a single addtion or change that I look at and think "oh that's bad", like they seem to be ernestly admitting smash 4's flaws and working on a game that, while maybe not the melee+ some were hoping for, is a much healthier base with (likely) a single player closer to brawl and a lot of accessibility and gameplay improvements.

That's if Dante isn't revealed to be real and is smash 4 bayonetta all over again like he would inevitably be

 

[staindgrey]

Did they ever say Kamiya is directing 3? He didn’t direct 2. Although since Scalebound was cancelled maybe he’ll come back

I miss Scalebound...

Xbox, let me have nice things.

 

[Rocket Raccoon]

His introduction splash art would say
“SE Rep represents SE!”.

Does this mean we get Todd Howard as the Bethesda rep?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I already got most of the characters I would have asked for in the game already (prior to Smash Ultimate), Isaac is kind of the last 1st Party character I really want in the game (who still has a shot); with the exception of Tails, Agumon, Vaati*, Lyn and Nightmare, everyone else on my request list in my Signature are pretty much all characters who my active support for came after joined these forums.

*I don't consider Vaati to really have a shot at playability mostly because he's competing with a lot of Zelda characters, and may or may not have rights issues with Capcom. That aside he's still lower on my wanted list than Isaac anyway.

This is a good discussion topic - who do you support from before, and who have you gotten to know because of the forums?

For me: I never really did the speculation thing for Brawl. After release, I woud fantasize about Midna or Ivy (Soul Calibur) in the game, but nothing more than that.

Sm4sh speculation was mostly revolving around returning vets for me. The big ones I wanted to see return were the Pokémon Trainer as a team (I thought the idea was genius and they were all really fun to play), Mewtwo (the most painful cut since I love Gen 1, and he's so cool), and Wolf (for my cousin, since he always played Wolf). Also Ganondorf, but he ended up in (albeit with a severe derplord makeover). But that was also when I joined the boards, so I got swept up in speculation, particularly for Rildey and K.Rool, despite never having played a Metriod or DKC game. I still supported Midna for myself as well. I will admit that this led to my disillusion with Sm4sh, since I had so many characters I liked and none of them made it in at all.

Now, I still was on the K.Rool and Ridley trains (I finally did play DK64) because I'd gotten swept up from those threads a few years ago. But seeing all of my vets return was truly the best part, and I'll admit that Squirtle actually hyped me a bit more than Ridley. My current wanted list now is mostly my own now that various third-party doors have been blown open - Dovahkiin since I love the Elder Scrolls series and the game was beautiful, despite the game being Western and only having a 6-years-later port as its connection to Nintendo; and Tails since he was my first ever video game character back with Sonic 2 (even though I really don't know what happened in the Sonic series after that, I just know that Tails is Sonic's BFF), despite Sonic already having a rep. I still drag Midna along even though she's disconfirmed - I'm of the opinion that DLC can promote a character easily, it just hasn't happened yet - or comes in her Twili form as a Zelda echo. Ivy is still there, but I'm not going to go out of my way for her. But Urbosa did also steal the spotlight in BotW for me so I'm for her as well. Skull Kid I'll admit is a bit bandwagony. I loved Majora's Mask, but I'd take Midna or Urbosa over him. Still, he's leagues above any other potential newcomer for me.

 

[uebo7]

Assuming that the characters won't be arranged or resized, assuming box is the final image minus new characters.

It's likely they got all the official renders so far and fitted them according to their current number.

The box theory says it went Total Character Number -> Box -> Remove upcoming reveals when it could have been;

Number of characters as of Early September 2018 -> Box dimensions -> Empty spaces.

The problem with this is that echoes don't have unique numbers, so they wouldn't have known to space Corrin further.

If my understanding of the theory is correct, then it’s still making the assumption that the portraits cannot be shrunk or changed in any way to accomodate more. It’s still assuming that no aspect of the box design can be changed before release with the exception of squeezing additional characters into the blank spaces, isn’t it? Correct me if I’m wrong.

That is basically correct. We are assuming that much at least, but it is a strange coincidence that Vergeben's known non-DLC characters fit perfectly with this box as-is. That, and if they were to change the vertical size of each portrait to fit more (non-echo) characters, the left side would feature smaller portraits than the right, unless you beleive there will really be SEVEN+ brand new characters AFTER Inceneroar.

Do you have that in a better quality?

Here ya go: https://imgur.com/xgUdglN

 

[Deleted member]

Box theory would mean nothing if it wasn't for the incredibly suspicious group of 8 that is between Palutena and Cloud. The rest of the box is grouped in 9s, why would only this spot be like this?

 

[majora_787]

If my understanding of the theory is correct, then it’s still making the assumption that the portraits cannot be shrunk or changed in any way to accomodate more. It’s still assuming that no aspect of the box design can be changed before release with the exception of squeezing additional characters into the blank spaces, isn’t it? Correct me if I’m wrong.

The theory relies on a lot of assumptions, and I mean a lot. It's the main reason why it comes off as so ridiculous.
- The designer had to have made the decision knowing the entire roster, and was making an elaborate pattern specifically because of the final roster rather than the simpler and more likely situation of them knowing how many characters there were, and wanting to make the sides look good or interesting.
- The box's art cannot and will not be changed.
- The game's announcements have to be INCREDIBLY frontloaded, with all but two characters revealed in the first 13 weeks since E3 with only two characters to show off in the latter 13 weeks. That's comically frontloaded.

I know people want to lower their expectations REALLY badly, but it's ending up just being used to beat down peoples' excitement for the game when its basis is incredibly shaky. It makes me really not like it, especially when it's passed off with "nobody wants it to be right", despite a lot of the same people working really hard to be (or at least sound) entirely correct about it.

It makes me incredibly tired. It's going to be a long few weeks with this box thing.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

Honestly despite the possible absoloute bust of an ending nintendo may have trapped themselves into. This game overall has literally not given me a single addtion or change that I look at and think "oh that's bad", like they seem to be ernestly admitting smash 4's flaws and working on a game that, while maybe not the melee+ some were hoping for, is a much healthier base with (likely) a single player closer to brawl and a lot of accessibility and gameplay improvements.

That's if Dante isn't revealed to be real and is smash 4 bayonetta all over again like he would inevitably be

Except Bayonetta was released at the tail end of Sm4sh’s DLC season, and DID get nerfed, but she was still OP and the game stopped being supported before they could nerf her further.
If Dante is Bayonetta 2.0, which is a big if, he’d inevitably get nerfed to **** because Ultimate’s lifespan would still be in the early stages

 

[Potato_]

Honestly despite the possible absoloute bust of an ending nintendo may have trapped themselves into. This game overall has literally not given me a single addtion or change that I look at and think "oh that's bad", like they seem to be ernestly admitting smash 4's flaws and working on a game that, while maybe not the melee+ some were hoping for, is a much healthier base with (likely) a single player closer to brawl and a lot of accessibility and gameplay improvements.

That's if Dante isn't revealed to be real and is smash 4 bayonetta all over again like he would inevitably be

I have to agree. The game as a whole has this positive vibe around it, where all communities are feeling like they're getting something.

I really appreciate the middle ground they're trying to reach with Ultimate.

Now add Skull Kid and it's perfect Sakurai.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Box theory would mean nothing if it wasn't for the incredibly suspicious group of 8 that is between Palutena and Cloud. The rest of the box is grouped in 9s, why would only this spot be like this?

Oh you mean that spacing that we can't even see to know this for sure? The spacing we're just assuming is so because of one side of the box.

 

[Pakky]

fights for it.

 

[RawstyleEevee]

So end of april 2015 is after now? ok.

People forget that X was overall a major basebreaker and Elma's main competition was the ballot itself. People really forget that the top 10 of the ballot was dominated by cut veterans and the likes of K.rool and Ridley, while Elma was from a game that just released in Japan when the ballot went live and the Japanese had the same issues the west had with X. Honestly Takahashi promising in an interview shortly after the Japanese release that the next Xenogame would be story focussed again, shows to me he listend to the backslash, because that is still to this day the biggest complain people had with X.

Xenoblade 2 is also near guaranteed to be getting rep if we get DLC, because hate it or like it, it is currently the most successful Xenoblade title and already has Sakurai bias going for it.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

In regards to the music theory, do we think Mario might be an exception to it? It's notable that it was split up into two different categories on the My Music page, likely to be main series and spinoff, and the song that is uploaded on the site is obviously from a main series title, potentially allowing a spinoff title to get a song on the site (aka Geno).

I'm not one to cling to theories, but I do think it's an interesting situation with Geno likely being the SE rep and Mario being the one series to have its music split into two sections, it creates a potentially unique opening in that regard.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

That's why the box art theory is so silly to me.

It's a LOT of ASSUMPTIONS being passed off as accuracy.

Like the variables in the theory are just far too many and too much.

The box art could not be final (which we know it's not), the portraits can shrink (there's nothing saying they can't), the echo could be for some reason not Ken, the amount of echoes on Ken's side could grow (there's no way to not know that say Medusa is next to Palutena or something), the use of Vergeben to make it accurate yet he's saying three characters, the fact you have to assume his third character is DLC.

If something's got that many assumptions to make it right? It's probably not right.

Box Theorist’s Response: ‘Tis but a flesh wound

 

[staindgrey]

Someone in his line of sources has to be working on it or involved in it to some capacity. If the real leaker doesn't have access to the series symbol or anything to indicate otherwise then it's understandable. I just think the most likely person to leak would be on the dev tean.

Very unlikely it's the dev team. Those guys know that breaking a nondisclosure agreement would get them blacklisted from most major studios, essentially ending their careers.

A source like Verge's is someone with secondhand knowledge due to being contracted by Bandai/Nintendo/Sora for some sort of work outside of game design. A concept artist, a musician, a QA tester, something like that. They could still be sued for breaking the NDA if they were caught, but if they don't work directly for the developer or producer, they're much less likely to be found and won't lose their jobs over it.

That's why we get things like "a Square Enix rep is in the game, but I don't know who". Assuming there really is a source who told him that, the source is aware of that information but doesn't have the clearance or involvement to actually know what it is. It's like a game of telephone.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh you mean that spacing that we can't even see to know this for sure? The spacing we're just assuming is so because of one side of the box.

Every group consists of 9 characters, all groups but Palutena's, which we KNOW has only 8 characters because the other side goes from the Miis to Corrin. It's not some gigantic leap in logic like people are making it out to be.

 

[GunBlaze]

CaptainAmerica You might want to fix the quotes in your post, fam.

 

[uebo7]

Oh you mean that spacing that we can't even see to know this for sure? The spacing we're just assuming is so because of one side of the box.

How is the space unknown? There aren't any other characters left to go there and fill it, even if you want to ignore the pattern (for some reason).

 

[KingofKoopas]

Until recently i haven't seen so many people fanatical over a cardboard box since MAYBE some metal gear solid parodies. Seriously its a Cardboard box with pictures on it not the Da Vinci Code of Smash Ultimate

 

[G-Guy]

So I am sitting in this rather comfy spot where it doesn't really matter to me if the Box Theory is true or not.

First, the roster to me is pretty much beautiful, already! I got my most wanted in and Ryu makes a comeback as my secondary, so Ken and his fabulous hair will be welcomed gladly.

however, I am always intrigued to see more characters (and stages) added later on. Overall, I am far from disappointed if that's the final roster as it stands, as the game is just massive the way it is, already =)

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

Except Bayonetta was released at the tail end of Sm4sh’s DLC season, and DID get nerfed, but she was still OP and the game stopped being supported before they could nerf her further.
If Dante is Bayonetta 2.0, which is a big if, he’d inevitably get nerfed to **** because Ultimate’s lifespan would still be in the early stages

I would love a balanced dante, but I can't see a dante that is both balanced and actually feels like you are playing Dante From The Devil May Cry Series. Bayonetta's insane level of options and combos suggest that to bring the wild, showboaty combat style of the Bayonetta games (And by extentsion, the series it was based off of), you have to make them that broken or else they would lose their identity.

I just feel there is a massive divide between the genre itself, and it's compatability with smash. I feel like this is a fundemental mechanics thing, which to me means that there is no way to make dante or bayonetta either useless, or broken.

 

[bbybae]

Something is confusing to me about the box theory, about how we see the characters in sets of 6 but they skip by intervals of 9. Wouldn't that mean that if the other side is identical, with, we assume, 6 fighters each, that there would be another place on the box that they are putting fighters, like maybe 3 across the back of the box? And if that were true, like the pattern wasn't just each side, then really we couldn't predict how many fighters are left because there is obviously a missing element to our understanding of the graphic design here.

or am i missing a detail here that makes this obviously wrong?

 

[Drakonix]

In regards to the music theory, do we think Mario might be an exception to it? It's notable that it was split up into two different categories on the My Music page, likely to be main series and spinoff, and the song that is uploaded on the site is obviously from a main series title, potentially allowing a spinoff title to get a song on the site (aka Geno).

I'm not one to cling to theories, but I do think it's an interesting situation with Geno likely being the SE rep and Mario being the one series to have its music split into two sections, it creates a potentially unique opening in that regard.

Wasn't the second Mario icon specifically used for Mario Kart tracks?

 

[Potato_]

Very unlikely it's the dev team. Those guys know that breaking a nondisclosure agreement would get them blacklisted from most major studios, essentially ending their careers.

A source like Verge's is someone with secondhand knowledge due to being contracted by Bandai/Nintendo/Sora for some sort of work outside of game design. A concept artist, a musician, a QA tester, something like that. They could still be sued for breaking the NDA if they were caught, but if they don't work directly for the developer or producer, they're much less likely to be found and won't lose their jobs over it.

That's why we get things like "a Square Enix rep is in the game, but I don't know who". Assuming there really is a source who told him that, the source is aware of that information but doesn't have the clearance or involvement to actually know what it is. It's like a game of telephone.

I'm like 90% sure Vergeben's sources are related to Bandai Namco in some way. He seems to get info from their games much more often than any other.

 

[Pazzo.]

As someone who works in marketing, I would not put the effort into rearranging the roster in a specific, thought-out order if I knew that I was not given all the information. We are too close to release for Nintendo to not give their marketing team all of the available information so they can properly arrange and design the box art. No one on the design team is going to get surprised suddenly with new renders that Nintendo didn't feel like sharing before.

It's possible that the arrangement doesn't indicate every single character, and that other newcomers will appear somewhere else on the box-- though unlikely-- but the idea that Nintendo's just hiding some other characters from their design team and plan on making them create a total redo later is wishful thinking.

Very possible, the box theory isn't entirely flawed by nature.

But I find it harder to believe that the entire roster would be foretold due to an image we know will (probably) not represent the final product.

Or hell, maybe it is the final product and that's exactly how it will look regardless of Isabelle and whoever else is coming.

I personally think no more than 2 characters is a reasonable guess, but I find it hard to think that this box is the reason we know this for certain.

 

[staindgrey]

Oh you mean that spacing that we can't even see to know this for sure? The spacing we're just assuming is so because of one side of the box.

"Just assuming" is a disingenuous way of putting it. It's an educated guess that follows a very clear pattern and bases its deduction on the one variance from that pattern.

Box theory isn't 100% proven, but it's not "just an assumption" either.

 

[Deleted member]

Ken and his fabulous hair will be welcomed gladly.

But what if he's Banana Ken?

 

[Pakky]

But what if he's Banana Ken?

No...please, no...

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Did they ever say Kamiya is directing 3? He didn’t direct 2. Although since Scalebound was cancelled maybe he’ll come back

Last thing he said was that he was putting all his effort or heart or soul or something behind this game and promised not to disappoint the fans of that game like he did with Scalebound (like it was his fault or something) that tells me he's directing it but maybe not. Doubt they make any console exclusives for anyone besides Nintendo now though. Especially after Scalebound.

 

[staindgrey]

I'm like 90% sure Vergeben's sources are related to Bandai Namco in some way. He seems to get info from their games much more often than any other.

And they could still be an outside contractor with a good relationship with Bandai Namco. My small business works with the same outside businesses more often than not because we already have a relationship with them and know they do good work.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

I would love a balanced dante, but I can't see a dante that is both balanced and actually feels like you are playing Dante From The Devil May Cry series. Bayonetta's insane level of options and combos suggest that to bring the wild, showboaty combat style of the Bayonetta games (And by extentsion, the series it was based off of), you have to make them that broken or else they would lose their identity.

I just feel there is a massive divide between the genre itself, and it's compatability with smash. I feel like this is a fundemental mechanics thing, which to me means that there is no way to make dante or bayonetta either useless, or broken.

I personally disagree. Both DMC and Bayonetta are ****ing hard games. The cutscenes might show the characters styling all over everything but getting good enough to emulate those cutscenes requires a lot of practice. You could make balanced Bayonetta and Dante without making them feel useless.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I'm like 90% sure Vergeben's sources are related to Bandai Namco in some way. He seems to get info from their games much more often than any other.

One of his sources almost definitely is, the one which first leaked Ridley and Namco developing Prime 4.

Wasn't the second Mario icon specifically used for Mario Kart tracks?

I don't think we ever saw an indication of how many or which tracks were in that section, and neither do I think there are enough Mario Kart tracks to warrant it being split off (although it does have two stages, so maybe).

 

[Paperchampion23]

Box theory would mean nothing if it wasn't for the incredibly suspicious group of 8 that is between Palutena and Cloud. The rest of the box is grouped in 9s, why would only this spot be like this?

But that's also assuming that the only other echo fighter we'll get is a 3rd party one. Why even introduce the concept of Echo fighters if you only introduce 5? (7 I guess since Dark Pit and Lucina got placed as them). Why even give the option to hide them in the corner? That number seems way too small to me to add a feature like that.

To me, in all honesty, they just happened to take out 8 characters for the sake of making the box look more even with 2 open spaces. With one extra space it looks worse. I think it's as simple as that. Tbh, Imo it's better to assume that rather than to assume that Ken is the only other echo fighter the game will have left. Seems SUPER off to me if that's the reality.

 

[Mutsukki]

Oh you mean that spacing that we can't even see to know this for sure? The spacing we're just assuming is so because of one side of the box.

We aren't "assuming" anything, the math is 100% logical and certainly right. It's not that they can't change the box, but as it stands, it's sound

 

[Pazzo.]

It should be noted that upon closer inspection this probably not an actual image of the final product.


Look carefully at the background of the portrait side.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't think we ever saw an indication of how many or which tracks were in that section, and neither do I think there are enough Mario Kart tracks to warrant it being split off (although it does have two stages, so maybe).

I said this yesterday, Mario Kart has 12 songs total if all songs from Smash 4 return (no Mario Kart songs were cut from Brawl). That's one more than Bayonetta. Mario Kart also had its own category in Brawl with only 4 songs (tied with Kid Icarus, which also had its own category). It certainly could have its own category, number of songs isn't an issue. I think part of the reason they'd want to split Mario Kart is because they want to lock the Mario Kart music to the Mario Kart stages.

I will give you that it may be a general Mario spin-off category though, sense Mario Circuit (Brawl) has a Mario Golf remix and Mario Circuit U has a minigame theme from Mario Party 9, which will no longer be useable on those stages if the category is just Mario Kart.

 

[Opossum]

But that's also assuming that the only other echo fighter we'll get is a 3rd party one. Why even introduce the concept of Echo fighters if you only introduce 5? (7 I guess since Dark Pit and Lucina got placed as them). Why even give the option to hide them in the corner? That number seems way too small to me to add a feature like that.

To me, in all honesty, they just happened to take out 8 characters for the sake of making the box look more even with 2 open spaces. With one extra space it looks worse. I think it's as simple as that. Tbh, Imo it's better to assume that rather than to assume that Ken is the only other echo fighter the game will have left. Seems SUPER off to me if that's the reality.

You make it sound like five is a really low number. After the first announcement, I thought we'd only get two after Daisy, five in total.

Melee didn't add fourteen roster padding clones, it added six. Five new echo fighters is perfectly good.