Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Misery Brick]

He's not even sure about that one, which is why he hasn't name dropped them.

He's not sure on who the character is, or the name of them. That aspect is the one he doesn't quite believe or is unsure on.
The person that's been giving Verge most of his info said that there's a Square Enix character in, just couldn't say who it was.
That is one of the defining things that goes against the box theory.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

He's not even sure about that one, which is why he hasn't name dropped them.

No, he is very much sure of the SE character's existence, what he is unsure of is a random guy telling him the name of the character. His exact quotes on it:

"I heard a name from someone recently as to who it might be, but it came from someone claiming to know it along with "confirming" other information that I had heard.
They might just be trying to fool me into believing what they are saying so that I say it to mess with me and try to harm my credibility so I'm not going to say who they claim it is until I get responses back from my sources that point in a direction proving whether or not there is anything to what they are saying." Source

"I really would like to say who the random person said the Square Enix character is. but if it isn't them, I have to deal with a whole other slew of hatred and harassment from people even though I am outright saying I've contacted my people to see if there is anything to what that person is claiming. " Source

People have to stop mixing this up with the prior information about the SE character's existence, this is just a repeat of the Incineroar situation.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Remember, guys.

Pac-Man cloud.

 

[Zinith]

Almost every time a slip up on Nintendo's end happened, a correction was made quickly.

 

[PlasmaDam]

I hope we get more unexcepted chracthers that leaked roster looks dull as ****

 

[Jedisupersonic]

I get hyped because either Ken is in, or more characters are added into the game's roster; most of the Smash community will have nuclear plant tier meltdowns and everyone that believes in the box theory will get to brag and say "I told you so!".

And it will be known as Boxing Day.

Sorry couldn’t help that one.

 

[Pakky]

And..... that went nowhere.

Not yet?

Like that's not a chair theory or anything. That's kind of a heavy-handed hint that only fans would pick up.

 

[Darkraid]

"Keep your expectations low, and you'll never be disappointed."


Boi, I lived through Brawl and Smash 4 speculation.


I know what it's like to feel COMPLETELY underwhelmed by a final reveal.


Until something says otherwise, I'm siding on the side of caution, nothing more, nothing less.


No reason to psyche yourself up for disappointment when we may know the entire roster as soon as like, 6 weeks from now.

Hell yeah. I have learnt thru brawl and smash 4 speculation, u need to discount 20% from your character list because the truth is often far from what you expect.

Brawl and smash 4 each fell short of 20% of what i expected.

 

[osby]

Good morning and...Okay, wait, what's a box theory?

 

[Jedisupersonic]

Good morning and...Okay, wait, what's a box theory?

https://smashboards.com/threads/based-on-the-special-edition-box-the-only-remaining-characters-are-ken-one-final-newcomer.458449

You have some reading to do haha.

Edit: pasted the wrong part of the thread of my midread of it oops.

 

[ZephyrZ]

I keep seeing people argue that the box theory doesn't make sense because Nintendo really doesn't want to leak any characters. But here's the thing. Even if it's true, the box theory doesn't leak any specific characters. If it's legit, that's how it was able to slip through the cracks. It's not like that music leak the basically confirmed we were getting Castlevania content in particular. The only reason people are acting so sure it's Ken and Incineroar is because of Verg, not Nintendo themselves. Otherwise, we'd all still be arguing over who the final newcomers are still.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Literally nothing points to Isaac. The only reason people even speculated Isaac was due to jokes in poor taste about the earthquake.

Oh God you're not actually serious with this are you? You really think so little as to assume that this is why we were speculating Isaac?

No, that honor goes to that picture that bared similarity to the Golden Sun Camera Angle that is so prevalent in those games. The earthquakes had nothing to do with it. Everyone, everywhere, agreed that the reason the Direct was delayed was out of pure respect for the victims. People who speculated it was Isaac because of the delay obviously didn't know what they were talking about.

 

[Idon]

Discounting realism and what you personally think is going to happen...

If there really were only 2 characters left, who would you want them to be?

 

[Chrono.]

Almost every time a slip up on Nintendo's end happened, a correction was made quickly.

There's no big slip up here per se.

The difference between this box leak and the other stuff Nintendo let pass is that this is more vague in regards to the characters.

Assuming the box thing is for real, we'd only know the number of characters that are left but not the characters themselves. So Nintendo might not see it as a huge deal. Which is a pretty different case than Jigglypuff/Lucario/Ganondorf showing up willy-nilly while still unannounced.

 

[Potato_]

I don't want box theory to be real, I want more characters! Geno, Banjo, Bandanna Dee, all these guys wouldn't get in if box theory was real.
But this isn't like "Purple Chair, Yellow Chair, SKULL KID!!!" This is an assumption based upon an official piece of Smash merchandise that could, COULD mean something. I don't want it to be true, but I am gonna keep it in mind.

This is a good mindset to have people. You don't have to believe it, because the theory isn't perfect. It is however, plausible, so you should keep it in mind.

 

[Noipoi]

I keep seeing people argue that the box theory doesn't make sense because Nintendo really doesn't want to leak any characters. But here's the thing. Even if it's true, the box theory doesn't leak any specific characters. If it's legit, that's how it was able to slip through the cracks. It's not like that music leak the basically confirmed we were getting Castlevania content in particular. The only reason people are acting so sure it's Ken and Incineroar is because of Verg, not Nintendo themselves. Otherwise, we'd all still be arguing over who the final newcomers are still.

True. If it weren't for verg we'd probably be saying the last two are Geno and Skull Kid, or something.

 

[Misery Brick]

If we're treating a potential SE character as false or unlikely, shouldn't we treat a Pokémon the same way?
Just because one aspect helps one theory, doesn't mean you should discard the other aspect.
I just feel like that's moving goalposts tbh.

 

[Deleted member]

It's not like the Box theory doesn't have merit, it's by far the best one we've had this time, I'm just not fully sold on it. It just seems too odd to me.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

That? I think it was something Delzethin recieved shortly after Vergeben’s leaking spree around July/August by another insider. I’ll just contact @Delzethin to show you.

Apparently, most of the insiders still weren’t sure who the Pokémon newcomer was and were still trying to find a definitive answer as to who it could be. However, when Vergeben did his triple disconfirmation, it could’ve put his sources and other insiders at risk since Nintendo could possibly track them down using that and potential fake information, meaning that he probably said something too early.

That’s probably why he didn’t want to leak Incineroar for that reason and the potential source that said it, so he doesn’t risk blowing up source and his cover. The fact that he only heard it from one reliable source inclined him to not say anything, unttttiilllll Loz18 showed up and released it.

Interesting, though something regarding the last paragraph.

Vergeben has made it clear before that he didn't want to leak Incineroar because he and his sources weren't 100% in agreement that it was the Pokemon in question that was in the game, not because it would put his sources in danger. There's a reason why he PM'd Loz18 about it, and was particularly annoyed when loz leaked it out.

 

[Noipoi]

Discounting realism and what you personally think is going to happen...

If there really were only 2 characters left, who would you want them to be?

Geno and Incineroar, those are the two characters I want most.
That's why this leak is tearing me apart, it's half what I want and half major disappointment.

 

[Misery Brick]

Interesting, though something regarding the last paragraph.

Vergeben has made it clear before that he didn't want to leak Incineroar because he and his sources weren't 100% in agreement that it was the Pokemon in question that was in the game, not because it would put his sources in danger. There's a reason why he PM'd Loz18 about it, and was particularly annoyed when loz leaked it out.

Keep in mind, that only one of his sources was confident on Incineroar.
According to Verge, the others couldn't actually conclude who it would be.
That's literally it.

Incineroar is in no way a character that Verge has completely gone on record to confirm.

 

[TheSmasher916]

Here's the thing with all this...

I know we've had disappointments in the past, namely with Smash 4's base roster. The ESRB leaks put a lot of us into denial even after they were confirmed true with Shulk's reveal. I understand wanting to keep this thought as a vague possibility just to avoid potential disappointment, that's what I'm doing... But can we just think about this logically..?

First of all, a graphics/PR team isn't going to know insider info on the roster neither the character choices nor how many are left. They likely just arranged the portraits of all currently (at the time) known characters, and made a mock up image. It didn't have to look perfect, because its probably not the final design, as they're going to include more characters on it as reveals continue. This was likely just the best way to arrange a promo image which is subject to change. If something like the banner which at first seemed solid and unchangeable is subject to having characters moved all around to accommodate for future reveals, why would portrait images on the side of a box be any different..? Like realistically what were they (the graphic team) supposed to do given their current circumstances? I want to get this point across...

There is no possible orientation that they could have chose that wouldn't have everyone reading too deeply into it.


They make the portaits smaller? That leaves more room open for empty spaces which leads people even more so to think that we know the amount of newcomers, so that would obviously be a no-go. This was the closest they could get to having a full layout of all characters on the box with the info they knew at the time.

I understand that it's speculation and I completely support it, but I feel like the fact that there's so many people giving up all hope like this is the final say is honestly kind of ridiculous. They would have nothing to gain showing these remaining spots off if they were in fact, the "final spots", and the fact that anyone thinks a graphics team designing boxart for a bundle like this would know this info is mind-boggling.

Also I'm completely along the line of thinking that Vergeben is pretty much completely legit, so this doesn't have anything to do with his claims, but it doesn't make sense to me why people are cherry-picking what info of his to match with this theory. Like why is the SE rep being tossed out of the conceptual base roster all of a sudden..? What makes Ken and Alolamon more fitting..?

Look, I've always been a very cautious speculator when it comes to this sort of thing, and I naturally tend to stick to the more disappointing option because it saves me from the disappointment if it ends up being real. But this is nothing to get worked up over.

 

[Darkraid]

Keep in mind, that only one of his sources was confident on Incineroar.
According to Verge, the others couldn't actually conclude who it would be.
That's literally it.

Incineroar is in no way a character that Verge has completely gone on record to confirm.

He is confident on ken as well.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I'm still in the belief we'll be getting a rounded 80. 2 more uniques (Geno and Incineroar), and 4 more echos (Dixie, Impa, Ken and Shadow). 70 uniques, 10 echos.

Otherwise if the box thing turns out to be true. Then I expect the same with 80 but we'll only getting 4 DLC characters 2 uniques and 2 echos.

So I'm looking at both sides here so my expectations are kind of in the middle.

 

[Captain Fun]

'After the Castlevania slip-up, they wouldn't make a mistake like this again!'
'After the Ganondorf slip-up, they wouldn't make a mistake like this again!'
'After the Sticker slip-up, they wouldn't make a mistake like this again!'

Nintendo isn't perfect. They can, and will, make mistakes. This may not even be a mistake in any way, it could either be a way to temper expectations so people aren't too hopeful, or a means to specifically drum up hype in case something like this is analyzed to this extent. This theory has a healthy deal of footing to it, and as much as I'd like there to be more characters, it fits with everything we know.

It really wouldn't be that big of a deal if we potentially learned how many characters are left. This isn't even remotely on the level the Castlevania music leak on the website.

Again, I think it's plausible that there could be more but...

If this is just a mockup and the final boxart will use a different layout with more characters, why would they even leave these blank spaces in their preview image?

 

[ZephyrZ]

If we're treating a potential SE character as false or unlikely, shouldn't we treat a Pokémon the same way?
Just because one aspect helps one theory, doesn't mean you should discard the other aspect.
I just feel like that's moving goalposts tbh.

I think it's because most people expect there to be a Gen 7 'mon even without Verg. Verg is the reason people are leaning towards Incineroar in particular, but he was already a somewhat likely candidate to begin with.

 

[Troykv]

I understand the Box Theory; I'm still a bit iffy with it; but I'm already prepared with the mentality of expecting one new character and one new echo fighter... Just in case. Everything else since that point it would be a welcomed surprise.

 

[Shroob]

If we're treating a potential SE character as false or unlikely, shouldn't we treat a Pokémon the same way?
Just because one aspect helps one theory, doesn't mean you should discard the other aspect.
I just feel like that's moving goalposts tbh.

I think it's more then not just because him saying "2nd SE rep" came from nowhere.


Ken's completely understandable, and 'box theory' even supports his inclusion, and he was championing Gen7 for awhile.


"2nd SE rep" just came out of nowhere, to the point that other leakers who had been saying the same thing basically had no idea where he got that info from.

 

[Darkraid]

I'm still in the belief we'll be getting a rounded 80. 2 more uniques (Geno and Incineroar), and 4 more echos (Dixie, Impa, Ken and Shadow). 70 uniques, 10 echos.

Otherwise if the box thing turns out to be true. Then I expect the same with 80 but we'll only getting 4 DLC characters 2 uniques and 2 echos.

So I'm looking at both sides here so my expectations are kind of in the middle.

This must be your first rodeo

It really wouldn't be that big of a deal if we potentially learned how many characters are left. This isn't even remotely on the level the Castlevania music leak on the website.

Again, I think it's plausible that there could be more but...

If this is just a mockup and the final boxart will use a different layout with more characters, why would they even leave these blank spaces in their preview image?

Exactly

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Discounting realism and what you personally think is going to happen...

If there really were only 2 characters left, who would you want them to be?

Isaac and Geno. It'd make the most people happy out of anyone else. Even if I would pick someone else, personally, over Geno I would be more than excited for him because of how many people would finally get their dream.

D1, I'm looking out for you brother.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

It really wouldn't be that big of a deal if we potentially learned how many characters are left. This isn't even remotely on the level the Castlevania music leak on the website.

Again, I think it's plausible that there could be more but...

If this is just a mockup and the final boxart will use a different layout with more characters, why would they even leave these blank spaces in their preview image?

It feels like you're just agreeing with me because this is exactly the idea I'm trying to get across, that it's not some critical error and it's fair that they ballpark how many characters are left to reveal.

 

[Ignoritus]

The entire box theory is being taken way out of proportion.

1. Why would Sakurai frontload 5 reveals into an August direct, 1 in September so far, and then presumably 0 in October and 2 in a November direct?
This would create a massive hype vacuum shortly before release and draw discussion away from the game. This strategy does not appear to make sense at first glance nor is there any precedent to support it. This does not match with the reveal strategy employed in 4 which has been otherwise emulated up to this point. Why make such a substantial and counter-intuitive change to a system that worked after mimicking it this long to great success?

2. This contradicts what Vergeben, in all his previous accuracy, has already said.
Between Ken, a Gen 7 Pokemon, and a Square Rep Vergeben has already said three more characters are coming. I've heard lots of postulation that he was misinformed or that the character he heard about was preplanned DLC. That's not outside the realm of possibility, but it's absurd to just accept this theory at face value and say "Vergeben must be wrong" as opposed to humoring the possibility that it's the inverse that's true.

3. Who knows what the box designers actually know?
We know that reveals are super tight-lipped for this game. Unless it was already absolutely necessary the box designers were likely not given the full character list. They may very well have been handed the previously released or soon-to-be-released renders and told to design the box in a manner that would be scalable for new characters. Hell even if they did have the full character listings if there were enough to merit another line what the hell were they going to do, leave a giant blank space at the bottom of the box for this promo?

I'm not denying it's possible they're onto something but all of the people who are dead certain we're only getting Ken and one other newcomer now are taking way too much certainty in something that doesn't quite add up and there are a lot of explanations for.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

Keep in mind, that only one of his sources was confident on Incineroar.
According to Verge, the others couldn't actually conclude who it would be.
That's literally it.

Incineroar is in no way a character that Verge has completely gone on record to confirm.

I mean, I agree, but I'm assuming your post is in agreement with parts of mine? Not to be rude or anything, because most of what you've said was just regurgitated points from my post, and isn't even relevant to the point of initial post anyway.

 

[ReeseBalaski]

Discounting realism and what you personally think is going to happen...

If there really were only 2 characters left, who would you want them to be?

Shadow and Elma.

Shadow because he's been at the top of my Echo list ever since the concept was revealed. Also, the fact that his Assist Trophy has not been shown is still weird. (Plus, SA2 bias)

Elma because she's badass and I love Xenoblade X.

 

[Potato_]

Discounting realism and what you personally think is going to happen...

If there really were only 2 characters left, who would you want them to be?

Skull Kid and Isaac, purely to satisfy me and a friend. It's selfish but that's my hope.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Can we make Zelda's Smash Roster representation a meme?

"Okay so we got Ganondorf, Zelda....wait, two Zeldas? ...and THREE LINKS?!"

Skull Kid, Impa, and Tingle for DLC pls.

 

[Captain Fun]

It feels like you're just agreeing with me because this is exactly the idea I'm trying to get across, that it's not some critical error and it's fair that they ballpark how many characters are left to reveal.

Good, because I was. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

 

[Zinith]

Discounting realism and what you personally think is going to happen...

If there really were only 2 characters left, who would you want them to be?

Geno and Boshi

Of course, it goes without saying

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Vergeben, as I've said NUMEROUS times, is not gospel, he's a guideline. He himself has said he's shaky on Incineroar, and VERY shaky on the second SE rep. You have the right to not believe this, but your reasoning is faulty.
.

No Vergeben has been adamant about there being a new Pokemon and never shown any doubt in the SE character's existence. What he was unsure of was who the new pokemon is (which is why he wouldn't reveal he heard Incineroar from one source until Loz leaked their PM), and the latest thing with the SE character was he heard the name of the character from a random guy outside his established Smash sources, where he is unsure of that guy's legitimacy.

People have to stop mixing those up with his established claims, which are new pokemon, Ken, SE character, and Minecraft content, none of which he has backed down from.

 

[Misery Brick]

I think it's because most people expect there to be a Gen 7 'mon even without Verg. Verg is the reason people are leaning towards Incineroar in particular, but he was already a somewhat likely candidate to begin with.

I mean I completely understand that, but it'd be different if people are saying Incineroar or another Pokémon is the rep we're getting.
Most people are coupling him with Ken though, and that literally relies on Verge's claims.
I just feel that's cherry picking, especially in accordance to a lot of arguments I've been seeing tossed around on here.

Like I don't think it'd be out of the question if people were speculating, like him and Dixie, or maybe another unique character. It'd make sense given a Pokémon is likely.
It's just I feel that those two invalidate a lot of people's theories at that point.
It's either all of it, or nothing.