Why don't I believe it?
Because the story it gave makes 0 sense, and the only thing it got right was Richter, nothing else.
The Neogaf leak is 'just' as credible if you're only going to look at 1 thing it got right, especially since we've been able to confirm that the Neogaf leak was hijacked by a 2nd individual after the initial post who added stuff like Galacta and MonHun, the original leaker never said these things.
Your entire argument is "It guessed Richter", and the Neogaf leak's 'one correct guess' has been "It got Roy=Chrom".
I fail to see how one is more credible than the other. They're both just as bull**** as the other.
I really dont want to like bounce the leak back and forth cause i've discussed it to death and all my points are out there but i'll just give a response and then im not gonna push it anymore right now.
the neogaf leak has signs of trying to gain attention, leaving room for characters by "blocking" some of them out sounds like a fake leaker to me, honestly why else do that? if you know whos in and are fine with leaking it just drop all the names, not all the names he said were in the direct and dark samus wasnt on his list so its not like he was certain WHO would be shown in the direct so he risked having NONE of his chaarcters get shown off and he'd have leaked nothing.
conversely the way the gardevoir leak was posted feels real to me; by anonymously posting what was found in a datamine just to get the info out there sounds like what you'd do if you had that info.
guessing chrom as a roy echo is not equal to guessing richter, imo anyway. there were 3 choices for who chrom could be an echo of marth/ike/roy and chrom being in smash was generally thought of as being something that was super likely already while richter was not. chrom had reason to not be a marth echo (we have one) and reason to not be an ike echo (chrom doesnt fight in a slow strong fashion like ike... besides aether, they arent similar) so its guessable imo to go with roy, most werent guessing that but its guessable AND chrom is only "technically" a roy echo, he has moves from other characters which the leak doesnt talk about, we have no idea where this info is coming from as the leaker didnt talk about having insider sources like verge or lok18 so we dont know how the level of info he has is even possible.
the leak was posted in such a way that the poster can come back and enjoy the attention and then further fake more characters. the gardevoir leaker does what someone who got info but doesnt want to risk being found out would do, post anonymously and remain untraceable afterwards (no attention gained).
things like prince sable and terra dont feel anything like what we seem to be getting in ultimate. Gardevoir and gothitelle giving us every pokemon gen represented feels a lot like what we are getting in ultimate (multiple zelda games repped through the cast being overhaulled, the "everyone is here" theme).
galacta knight is super unlikely and i feel the leaker simply didnt KNOW metaknight had that alt costume shown off on the website (thinking the alts were only known for the demo characters) and with ike losing a chrom alt and samus losing a dark samus alt and then getting those characters I have very little hope galacta knight is real. If the leaker is now saying the leak was hijacked and switching up on which characters then once again that seems insanely fake to me (when he gave a definite number of characters initially by "blocking" some hidden ones i dont even know how he can claim that somehow he forgot to add the right amount and someone else hijacked and snuck on a few? like what? how does that work?). the gardevoir leak doesnt have anything like that in it, either galacta knight itself being "soft" deconfirmed OR trying to claim its hijacked and switching out character predictions, so that alone makes the neogaf leak less credible.
so anyway you dont have to believe either leak and i encourage making your own assessment of all the leaks and evidence out there, i'm all for that, but the gardevoir leak is in my opinion leagues ahead of the neogaf leak and all i want is to highlight why its so likely as i know to most people who would see it, seeing gothitell would make them instantly look over it and since there actually could be solid reasoning behind its character choices AND since it had guessed richter/k rool/dark samus surviving the direct and simply felt like it had sakurais thinking written all over it that it deserved to be looked at with the level of credibility it actually has rather than the low chances it appears to have at face value.
incineroar being called our likely new pokemon rep by verge and lok18 (though they arent sure) is probly the best argument against the gardevoir leak...though since they dont seem sure of the pokemon rep I dont think the gardevoir leak and verge/lok18 directly clash, im thinking both are credible but verge and lok18 simply dont know the pokemon rep. the gardevoir leaker, i think, has found it.