Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[SonicMario]

Alright, time to post my theory on Echo Fighters:

tl;dr at the bottom

In Smash4, we got 2 "True" Echo Fighters, being and , no one can deny this fact, they just weren't given the name "Echo Fighter" then. Why do they have it now? Most likely to differentiate true clones from semi clones. is more similar to than is to , for example.

Smash 4 also did something interesting, in that Echo Fighters were revealed/hinted at alongside their franchise's newcomer: was with , and was hinted at with .


What this tells me, is that if a series has an echo fighter present in Smash, they'll reveal them in the same trailer as the actual newcomer.

It just makes sense, to be honest. We have one actual case of this with , and a partial case with this with .



So my theory is simple:


If a series in THIS Smash has a playable Echo Fighter, they'll be shown alongside any possible newcomer that they have, otherwise, they'll get a trailer like Daisy got, meaning no new character.


For example: If King K.Rool got in, and then three months down the line Dixie/Funky got shown off as an Echo... why? Why wouldn't they simply show off K.Rool and Dixie/Funky in the same trailer? So far, they have never done this in the past, and I see no reason for this change now.


Of course, then this holds true the other way around; if an echo fighter gets a Daisy-like trailer before any newcomers get shown for their series, then it's also logical to assume that that series won't be getting any new representatives. If the series was getting an actual new character, why would the Echo Fighter be shown off alone, not alongside their newcomer?


This brings to mind Geno, since Daisy got revealed, but considering Geno's status as a "3rd Party Mario Character", if he's in, it would not surprise me if he's part of a 'different' series altogether with a completely different icon than the Mushroom.





tl;dr: If a series is to have an Echo Fighter, they'll more likely than not be shown off in their actual Newcomer's trailer. If their series isn't to have an actual new character, they'll simply be shown off ala how Daisy was.


This is how Sakurai's done it twice in the past, and I can't see him changing it now. If Mario isn't to get a full-blown newcomer(Which I personally doubt), then Daisy being shown alone makes perfect sense, and if this is true, then it'll most likely hold true to any-other stand alone Echo reveals.

Not that I think it's impossible for Daisy to be the only new Mario character for this Smash. But I think that's still a bit of a big assumption as there's still potentially say Captain Toad or even Paper Mario. Granted I don't think they're that likely right now. But I see no reason to necessarily need to tie in Daisy with either of those two characters if either of them happen to be in since it's not like either were in the Spin-offs that Daisy is made most famous from. If say Captain Toad is revealed for Smash alongside his Switch port next month then it could break that theory (It would probably have a tie-in character, as an alt though. Of which I mean Toadette of course) or even Captain Toad or Paper Mario being a Bowser Jr. like surprise when we thought maybe Rosalina was going to be it for Mario until the roster reveal happened. (Granted Bowser Jr was a unique character that just happened to be finished just in time according to Sakurai)

I think they just decided Daisy to be the face of new Echo fighters since she's fairly well-known whether or not there are any more Mario newcomers. The only character Daisy would of made sense to tie-in the same trailer like with Lucina and Dark Pit is if Waluigi was playable since they're both most famous for being in the Mario spin-offs. But that possibility is dead of course, heh. But either way, I'm just not sure Daisy being announced as en echo without being tied in to a trailer necessarily means there might not be a Mario series newcomer.

I do agree if Geno makes it, he might have his own icon since he's kind of a special case though. So I don't think that's an issue.

 

[Ze Diglett]

Forgive me, but I really don't get where people are getting this "Echo Fighters are doomed to be glorified alts forever!" mantra from. Who's to say a popular Echo Fighter in one game can't be given the Luigi treatment the next? Is it because Lucina and Dark Pit are still clones of Marth and Pit? That's a downright puny sample size, all things considered, so those two characters' fates can hardly be considered conclusive evidence to say the least. And furthermore, what of the fates of ex-clones like Luigi, Ganondorf, and Falco? Do they not count just because they've never been called "Echo Fighters"? That'd be ironic indeed, considering these are some of the same people who so readily chastise others for suddenly treating clones differently when put under a different label. If demand is high enough for an Echo Fighter to be represented more faithfully to their own abilities, then I see no reason they can't be decloned in the future, as if the Echo Fighter label is some obscure penance that character necessarily has to bear with them through their entire future as a fighter. Sakurai has implied nothing of the sort for any Echo Fighter, existing or potential, so I suggest people drop this absolutist attitude regarding them.

 

[Fenriraga]

I REALLY hope they don't organize the game's actual CSS by their "Numbered Appearance" Like on the website and demo build.

I get what they're going for, but Lordy that will make such a cluttered mess. Smash 4's messy CSS was bad enough.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

I REALLY hope they don't organize the game's actual CSS by their "Numbered Appearance" Like on the website and demo build.

I get what they're going for, but Lordy that will make such a cluttered mess. Smash 4's messy CSS was bad enough.

I think we should be allowed to pick between # order and franchise in terms of how the CSS looks.

 

[BlondeLombax]

I think we should be allowed to pick between # order and franchise in terms of how the CSS looks.

Heck, they're already doing it on the website, they might just do it in the main game. There's bound to be a compromise in there somewhere.

 

[Impa4Smash]

So my personal thoughts on the roster have changed a bit since E3. Not enough time to do another video since other projects are higher priority, but here's more or less what I think we could see in the base release:

View attachment 149836

Honorable mentions: Elma, Ashley, Isabelle, Paper Mario, Excitebiker, other Gen 7 options, Rayman, Steve, Shadow(ε), Funky Kong(ε)

Currently predicting 8 newcomers and 4 new echo fighters for the base game. As you may have seen last week, I'm starting to think the Smash Ballot is influencing decisions for Ultimate in more subtle ways (like making Ridley higher priority, and getting Bomberman and Krystal in as ATs after presumably not being chosen to be playable), and may not actually help out anyone who wouldn't already be eligible. This is why I'm bigger than before on Dixie Kong and Geno, and especially confident about Bandana Dee. Lycanroc and Rex & Pyra are major, unique characters with a lot of moveset potential that potentially got the Greninja treatment, and I think echo fighters may be a way of adding some popular faces who wouldn't have a chance otherwise.

Far as details go...I think Bandana Dee is the most likely newcomer right now, any Lycanroc form could work (though I still think Dusk is the most likely since we know they plan the anime out well in advance), Simon may have a legit shot even without the leak due to Konami being back and Bomberman being a summon, and his alts would be half his classic design and half his Lords of Shadow design. Dixie (and Isabelle) could work as distinct newcomers, semi-clones, or echo fighters, though I'm sure their fans would prefer the former. Impa would use either her Skyward Sword design or something original based on what BotW!Impa would've looked like when she was younger. Rex & Pyra is the shakiest pick here, and I could easily see Elma being chosen instead.

I also think we'll see extensive DLC eventually, with multiple "seasons" a la other major fighting games right now. Each season would have 4-5 purchased newcomers and 1-2 free echo fighters.

I think this roster is pretty close to what we’ll get and I’d be quite satisfied with it.

Only thing is I would be shocked if K Rool didn’t get in (the fan outcry is even higher than for Ridley it seems).

I could see your honorable mentions also getting in, either as base or DLC (especially Ashley)

 

[Jedisupersonic]

Heck, they're already doing it on the website, they might just do it in the main game. There's bound to be a compromise in there somewhere.

Yeah that's part of why I'm suggesting it, I think the # order while a mess is kind of cool for history too.

 

[Sharkarat]

It gets even worse when they start saying "This character will be included as an Echo or not at all!" Like what the **** kind of sideways logic am I being forced to experience? Why would anyone specifically want a character to be an Echo and why would any character at all be either Echo or bust?

I will explain it this way.
I genuinely want Dark Samus, and would rather have her as echo than not at all.
But DS is old (not relevant). Very unlikely to return in her own series. non-obvious moveset potential (you have to dig a little to make it). Before the concept of echoes was brought in I had no hope at all for her to get in smash at this point.
I don't believe all potential echoes are echo or bust, but DS is one where I do beleive it's the only shot at playable.

 

[Idon]

Forgive me, but I really don't get where people are getting this "Echo Fighters are doomed to always be glorified alts!" mantra from. Who's to say a popular Echo Fighter in one game can't be given the Luigi treatment the next? Is it because Lucina and Dark Pit are still clones of Marth and Pit? That's a downright puny sample size, all things considered, so it's hard to draw conclusions based on two characters' fates in just two games. If demand is high enough for an Echo Fighter to be represented more faithfully to their own abilities, then I see no reason they can't be decloned in the future, as if the Echo Fighter label is a penance that character necessarily has to bear with them through their entire future as a fighter. Sakurai has implied nothing of the sort for any Echo Fighter, existing or potential, so I suggest people drop this absolutist attitude regarding them.

Because Ganondorf has had 17 years to be made truly unique, but he's still a clone of Captain Falcon. There WAS time. There WAS fan demand. And very few came from it.
Changing 3 smashes to some other character's doesn't change the other 90% of his movelist.

Sakurai is obsessed with this idea of not alienating the fans, making characters like Roy, Young Link, Toon Link, Ganondorf, Dark Pit, Lucina still remain relatively the same with some modifications despite having far more to draw from and/or no reason to have their moves be based off someone else.

Luigi is the exception to this trend and had the benefit of being an extremely early character. He is the exception, not the rule, or even a likely possibility.

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

What if there is

Alright, time to post my theory on Echo Fighters:

tl;dr at the bottom

In Smash4, we got 2 "True" Echo Fighters, being and , no one can deny this fact, they just weren't given the name "Echo Fighter" then. Why do they have it now? Most likely to differentiate true clones from semi clones. is more similar to than is to , for example.

Smash 4 also did something interesting, in that Echo Fighters were revealed/hinted at alongside their franchise's newcomer: was with , and was hinted at with .


What this tells me, is that if a series has an echo fighter present in Smash, they'll reveal them in the same trailer as the actual newcomer.

It just makes sense, to be honest. We have one actual case of this with , and a partial case with this with .



So my theory is simple:


If a series in THIS Smash has a playable Echo Fighter, they'll be shown alongside any possible newcomer that they have, otherwise, they'll get a trailer like Daisy got, meaning no new character.


For example: If King K.Rool got in, and then three months down the line Dixie/Funky got shown off as an Echo... why? Why wouldn't they simply show off K.Rool and Dixie/Funky in the same trailer? So far, they have never done this in the past, and I see no reason for this change now.


Of course, then this holds true the other way around; if an echo fighter gets a Daisy-like trailer before any newcomers get shown for their series, then it's also logical to assume that that series won't be getting any new representatives. If the series was getting an actual new character, why would the Echo Fighter be shown off alone, not alongside their newcomer?


This brings to mind Geno, since Daisy got revealed, but considering Geno's status as a "3rd Party Mario Character", if he's in, it would not surprise me if he's part of a 'different' series altogether with a completely different icon than the Mushroom.





tl;dr: If a series is to have an Echo Fighter, they'll more likely than not be shown off in their actual Newcomer's trailer. If their series isn't to have an actual new character, they'll simply be shown off ala how Daisy was.


This is how Sakurai's done it twice in the past, and I can't see him changing it now. If Mario isn't to get a full-blown newcomer(Which I personally doubt), then Daisy being shown alone makes perfect sense, and if this is true, then it'll most likely hold true to any-other stand alone Echo reveals.

Something happening twice is not a pattern, especially when those were two completely different circumstances (A clone being shown as a surprise reveal, while the other wasn't even confirmed to be a clone in the first place) Especially given the finicky nature of how Echo Fighters are decided on, for all we know a Captain Toad/Paper Mario/whoever trailer was done before Daisy was made a separate fighter, we have no idea what the timetable is on how these trailers are made.

 

[Ze Diglett]

Because Ganondorf has had 17 years to be made truly unique, but he's still a clone of Captain Falcon. There WAS time. There WAS fan demand. And very few came from it.
Changing 3 smashes to some other character's doesn't change the other 90% of his movelist.

Sakurai is obsessed with this idea of not alienating the fans, making characters like Roy, Young Link, Toon Link, Ganondorf, Dark Pit, Lucina still remain relatively the same with some modifications despite having far more to draw from and/or no reason to have their moves be based off someone else.

Luigi is the exception to this trend and had the benefit of being an extremely early character. He is the exception, not the rule, or even a likely possibility.

Fair enough, but in that case, why are Roy, Pichu, Young Link, Luigi, Falco, Toon Link, Dr. Mario, and even the oft-maligned "Falcondorf" not considered Echoes? The answer is because they have, in fact, been made more unique (presumably, in the case of Pichu and Young Link, although Link's new Down-B does give us a potential answer for the latter). Making a character a clone for the sake of ease of development was never a commitment for them to stay that way forever, and I don't see why them having an officially recognized label should change that.

 

[Bowserlick]

Forgive me, but I really don't get where people are getting this "Echo Fighters are doomed to be glorified alts forever!" mantra from. Who's to say a popular Echo Fighter in one game can't be given the Luigi treatment the next? Is it because Lucina and Dark Pit are still clones of Marth and Pit? That's a downright puny sample size, all things considered, so those two characters' fates can hardly be considered conclusive evidence to say the least. And furthermore, what of the fates of ex-clones like Roy, Luigi, and Falco? Do they not count just because they've never been called "Echo Fighters"? That'd be ironic indeed, considering these are some of the same people who chastise others for suddenly treating clones differently when put under a different label. If demand is high enough for an Echo Fighter to be represented more faithfully to their own abilities, then I see no reason they can't be decloned in the future, as if the Echo Fighter label is some obscure penance that character necessarily has to bear with them through their entire future as a fighter. Sakurai has implied nothing of the sort for any Echo Fighter, existing or potential, so I suggest people drop this absolutist attitude regarding them.

• Echo Fighters started as costumes.
• Echo Fighters are counted with the host character in lists.
• Echo Fighters are purposely marketed different than semi-clones.

Implication by design is there. I think that is why Echo Fighters are accepted easier with their new name.

 

[DarkFalcon]

I'm fine with Ganondorf as he is now. I said this in the Ganondorf thread and I'll say it here. I genuinely do feel for the people who want a true representation of him in Smash, but I love him in Smash. I love warlock punch. I love flame choke. I love his faux Falcon kick. I love how he just BOOTS people with his legs. I love how crunchy his hits feel. He's just fun.

 

[Sharkarat]

Fair enough, but in that case, why are Roy, Pichu, Falco, Toon Link, Young Link, Dr. Mario, or even the oft-maligned "Falcondorf" no longer considered clones, or "Echo Fighters"? The answer is because they were, in fact, made more unique (presumably, in the case of Pichu and Young Link, although Link's new Down-B does give us a potential answer for the latter). Making a character a clone for the sake of ease of development was never a commitment for them to stay that way forever, and I don't see why them having an officially recognized label should change that.

most of those are still clones (Some are semi-clones), Echoes are a specific subset of clones that are extra similar.

 

[Shroob]

So next week is July.

Think we'll only get reveals via Directs, or surprise reveals like Robin monthly?

 

[GunBlaze]

So next week is July.

Think we'll only get reveals via Directs, or surprise reveals like Robin monthly?

Most likely a mix of the two, with a preference for Directs.

 

[Jetsurge]

I think this game will have the same amount of newcomers as Melee:
- 8 newcomers
- 6 echo fighters

 

[Deathcarter]

To be honest, I think the positive impression of Echoes now are mostly due to Daisy being a much more popular character than Lucina or Dark Pit and much less do with any "branding". Smash fans are historically much more receptive to cloning when its used to get in characters the community doesn't have a bone to pick with (Luigi vs Jigglypuff, Ganondorf & Falco vs Pichu and Dr. Mario, Lucas vs Toon Link). Seriously, had Sakurai not plainly stated that everybody was coming back, we'd still be getting calls to cut Lucina and Dark Pit regardless of what fancy moniker Sakurai identified them with.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

I've been saying this since the reveal.

It gets even worse when they start saying "This character will be included as an Echo or not at all!" Like what the **** kind of sideways logic am I being forced to experience? Why would anyone specifically want a character to be an Echo and why would any character at all be either Echo or bust?

I kinda hate the whole Echo thing just because of the weird 180 some people have taken with it. The complete shift in thinking due to a renaming is just....bizarre.

I think some of us would just like to see some potential characters who wouldn't be seen otherwise in the game.

Before the term was introduced would anyone in their right mind think that Shadow the Hedgehog was possible? Even with all his unique chaos abillities and everything he has going for him. There is no chance in hell he'd ever be considered.

But thankfully he does play similarly to Sonic in the majority of games they are in together, just add a few tweaks and honestly that'd be enough for me, i'm sure those who want Ken would be fine with them taking their base kit as Ryu but with multihit inputs because that's how Ken was in SF2 before all the updates and eventual decloning.

So yes, Echo or Bust means quite a bit to some people, it's enough for Lucina and Dark Pit fans so why not for us too? Like I fully understand being against the idea of more clone characters or wanting some people to be fully unique, but considering we only have 3 of them right now would another 2 or 3 be all that bad?

I loved when Sonic was intoduced in Brawl, and I've wanted Shadow in alongside him ever since, and this finally gives me a little bit of hope that it is possible, maybe Sakurai would give him some extra flare as a semi-clone because of his status as 3rd party but even if he was just a stronger & slower Sonic i'd be ok with that. Maybe change his dodges to warps or whatever little touches, but I just want this character in and this is literally the only way I can ever have him.

He'd never be considered as a full out character with full dev time, and I know this for a fact.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

So next week is July.

Think we'll only get reveals via Directs, or surprise reveals like Robin monthly?

I hope we get a surprise reveal like Robin and Lucina. I stayed up all night to watch the reveal, and freaked out.

I remember thinking Robin's Elwind was Shulk's Monado Purge and I got excited only to find out that it was Robin and Chrom (one of my top 5) wasn't in. I wasn't mad, just confused. Especially because there'd been a leak that it would be a Shulk reveal (was it based off Gematsu?).

And then Shulk got revealed out of the blue in a Japanese-exclusive 3DS Direct of all things. I remember waking up one morning to Shulk's official reveal and thinking "okay" as I went to shower.

 

[DownHaul]

So next week is July.

Think we'll only get reveals via Directs, or surprise reveals like Robin monthly?

Yeah probably, but also maybe since this game is more competitive they might reveal newcomers at tournaments maybe. I mean their is a playable demo at CEO 2018, so that makes me hopeful.

 

[Jetsurge]

I think some of us would just like to see some potential characters who wouldn't be seen otherwise in the game.

Before the term was introduced would anyone in their right mind think that Shadow the Hedgehog was possible? Even with all his unique chaos abillities and everything he has going for him. There is no chance in hell he'd ever be considered.

But thankfully he does play similarly to Sonic in the majority of games they are in together, just add a few tweaks and honestly that'd be enough for me, i'm sure those who want Ken would be fine with them taking their base kit as Ryu but with multihit inputs because that's how Ken was in SF2 before all the updates and eventual decloning.

So yes, Echo or Bust means quite a bit to some people, it's enough for Lucina and Dark Pit fans so why not for us too? Like I fully understand being against the idea of more clone characters or wanting some people to be fully unique, but considering we only have 3 of them right now would another 2 or 3 be all that bad?

I loved when Sonic was intoduced in Brawl, and I've wanted Shadow in alongside him ever since, and this finally gives me a little bit of hope that it is possible, maybe Sakurai would give him some extra flare as a semi-clone because of his status as 3rd party but even if he was just a stronger & slower Sonic i'd be ok with that. Maybe change his dodges to warps or whatever little touches, but I just want this character in and this is literally the only way I can ever have him.

He'd never be considered as a full out character with full dev time, and I know this for a fact.

If they're going to bother making a Shadow a semi-clone they may as well do Tails instead.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

I hope we get a surprise reveal like Robin and Lucina. I stayed up all night to watch the reveal, and freaked out.

Glad I wasn't the only one who stayed up all night haha.

 

[Will]

You guys are so boring. Getting hyped over Lucina and Robin.
That reveal of Captain Falcon and seeing him beat the **** out of Lucina was the hypest thing I've seen that year.

 

[SlickWylde]

I see you guys copying me and Blue with these bets. Y'all ain't slick

Uh, I am Slck, actually (I've also been doing it for quite a while)

 

[Captain Shwampy]

https://twitter.com/GreatGalaxyLord/status/1009587256238018560?s=19

Ashley confirmed for super lupin bros the 3rd part 5 ultimate

 

[Jetsurge]

I hope we get a surprise reveal like Robin and Lucina. I stayed up all night to watch the reveal, and freaked out.

It needs to be K. Rool and Dixie!

 

[BlondeLombax]

I think some of us would just like to see some potential characters who wouldn't be seen otherwise in the game.

Before the term was introduced would anyone in their right mind think that Shadow the Hedgehog was possible? Even with all his unique chaos abillities and everything he has going for him. There is no chance in hell he'd ever be considered.

But thankfully he does play similarly to Sonic in the majority of games they are in together, just add a few tweaks and honestly that'd be enough for me, i'm sure those who want Ken would be fine with them taking their base kit as Ryu but with multihit inputs because that's how Ken was in SF2 before all the updates and eventual decloning.

So yes, Echo or Bust means quite a bit to some people, it's enough for Lucina and Dark Pit fans so why not for us too? Like I fully understand being against the idea of more clone characters or wanting some people to be fully unique, but considering we only have 3 of them right now would another 2 or 3 be all that bad?

I loved when Sonic was intoduced in Brawl, and I've wanted Shadow in alongside him ever since, and this finally gives me a little bit of hope that it is possible, maybe Sakurai would give him some extra flare as a semi-clone because of his status as 3rd party but even if he was just a stronger & slower Sonic i'd be ok with that. Maybe change his dodges to warps or whatever little touches, but I just want this character in and this is literally the only way I can ever have him.

He'd never be considered as a full out character with full dev time, and I know this for a fact.

Not to mention, the Hero's story of Adventure 2 was kicked off by the military mistaking Shadow for Sonic (that, or there's the theory that they used Sonic as a scapegoat), and their moves and stats are almost exactly the same, which is evident in the battle mode. Seeing him as an Echo or Semi would make perfect sense.

 

[RandomAce]

https://twitter.com/GreatGalaxyLord/status/1009587256238018560?s=19

Ashley confirmed for super lupin bros the 3rd part 5 ultimate

The most outlandish place I’ve seen Ashley in.

Tbh, I like the taller more realistic looking Ashley than chibi looking Ashley.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

If they're going to bother making a Shadow a semi-clone they may as well do Tails instead.

To each their own, I think Shadow would create a bit more hype than Tails going off the Sonic fandom alone, Shadow quite often scores super well on popularity polls in general, but I'd have to check those same places around the time of the Smash poll that was done around Smash 4 to gauge that, but when Shadow was announced to be playable in Forces people erupted in happiness. I don't think that should be ignored.

I'm not gonna ignore Tails for being the important character he is to the Sonic franchise or how unique he can be, but I think Shadow would just create more excitement for the casual fan, espcially those who started with SA2 on the GC who were first time Sonic players with it. Shadow with his amazing vocal work (not the sound mixing though that kinda sucked) by David Humphrey leaves an impression, even on someone like me who started with the classics.

 

[Will]

I wonder if Japan WarioWare sales only boost because of Ashley's existence? Or maybe they like Wario a little too much.

 

[DarkFalcon]

https://twitter.com/GreatGalaxyLord/status/1009587256238018560?s=19

Ashley confirmed for super lupin bros the 3rd part 5 ultimate

Thanks for making my heart skip a beat.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

I wonder if Japan WarioWare sales only boost because of Ashley's existence? Or maybe they like Wario a little too much.

Who wouldn't like such a loveable face.

 

[Will]

Who wouldn't like such a loveable face.

The ugly ******* tag.

 

[Zinith]

https://twitter.com/GreatGalaxyLord/status/1009587256238018560?s=19

Ashley confirmed for super lupin bros the 3rd part 5 ultimate

Now if only the Yoshi series gets this treatment.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

The most outlandish place I’ve seen Ashley in.

Tbh, I like the taller more realistic looking Ashley than chibi looking Ashley.

if Nintendo was fast enough with that Ashley spin off game maybe we could have gotten older rock n roll witch Ashley

 

[Will]

Now if only the Yoshi series gets this treatment.

What kind of plot would a Yoshi anime have?

 

[Noipoi]

Now if only the Yoshi series gets this treatment.

You want Yoshi to cameo in random animes?

 

[Jedisupersonic]

What kind of plot would a Yoshi anime have?

A super sentai series where they got in super Yoshi bots to fight Bowser Jr.

Obviously.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

I think this game will have the same amount of newcomers as Melee:
- 8 newcomers
- 6 echo fighters

We are very unlikely to get six Echo Fighters. Just not happening. 1 or 2? Yeah. Comprising a large chunk of newcomers? No way.