Okay, since I’m not that good at giving claims and supporting evidence, I want to see what
Delzethin
thinks if this?
He surely knows his stuff tbh.
So, the very first project plan dates back to December 2015, huh?
Well, while it may have taken a couple months to put preliminary stuff together, what this tells us is
we're definitely looking at a Greninja situation now regarding Pokémon newcomers. And I say that pretty confidently--I don't buy the idea that having the veteran 'mons back means Sakurai would see Gen 7 as less important. Dude's got a track record of caring about newer characters just as much as older ones. And since this would've been done long before Sun and Moon hit shelves, this means
popularity would've been a complete non-factor!
The question now becomes who among the then-unrevealed Gen 7 'mons would've been considered the most compelling new addition in the minds of Sakurai, his inner circle, and The Pokémon Company. While we don't know
exact details, we know the Smash team is sent assets for 'mons in progress in order to aid their decision. We know concept art was sent for Gen 6 last time, so we can safely guess the same happened for Gen 7. We can
also safely assume they sent more than
just concept art, that the Smash team would've also had access to lore, design notes, and everything they'd need to make as clear a decision as possible. It only makes sense that they'd want as much information as possible available between both sides! Moreover, we know they focus greatly on what each potential newcomer can do and what they could bring to Smash--lack of standout abilities was what got Chrom shelved, while Sakurai famously made a rough draft concept for Greninja in one night! What many people don't realize is that
apparently the latter happened before Greninja got the all clear, which goes to show just how important character concepts are to the decision process.
Ultimately, who gets chosen may come down to details we don't know the full extent of. But based on what we know of Greninja last time and of Sakurai's creative mindset via his articles, I think the two most likely scenarios here are:
1. Greninja was chosen due to having a unique elemental niche (what with Squirtle absent) and abilities, and so they'll choose whoever among Gen 7's planned standouts would be the more unique addition. This potentially points to Lycanroc, who wields an element that is completely absent from Ultimate's roster so far, while Ivysaur's return means Decidueye wouldn't be quite
as unique in comparison.
2. Greninja was chosen due to its impending prominence in the anime...which would point
strongly to Lycanroc, as one features as Ash's signature 'mon in the Alola anime in the exact same starring role his Greninja had in Kalos. Considering Ultimate started development closer to Sun & Moon's release than Smash 4 did compared to X & Y's release, then if Greninja's anime role was taken into account, so would've Lycanroc's this time.
And while
we can't rely on marketing as an argument for who could've been "pushed" to get in since it's unreliable as a lead--Alolan Vulpix, the single most marketed Gen 7 'mon, is a summon--it
is worth noting that Dusk Lycanroc had multiple pieces of merchandise announced for it mere
hours after its reveal! That is something that just does not normally happen outside of 'mons that debut in movies, and while it tells us nothing directly about Smash, it does hammer in how big a deal this line is within Gen 7. For whatever reason, people outside the Pokémon fanbase just haven't noticed.
So basically, this new information changes the situation we're looking at, but it's one that I think one 'mon above the others would've been in the best situation for.
