Simpsons Mafia: will homer survive?

[karthik_king]

It seems like the Jungle lynch is inevitable - which is no problem, I just think that KK is the better lynch option. Mentos' reasoning has merit so I'll probably vote Jungle at the end of the day...

Kevin, what do you think about KK? He said he'd lynch you.

Firstly, Unvote

Secondly: Kevin's lynch is currently the best for these reasons
a) he is our normal cop. Great now we know jungle is scum
b) he is paranoid. He is now confirmed town.
c) he was yakked.

 

[mentosman8]

Kevin's lynch is nowhere near our best option. If he's our normal cop, we just lost something major at our own hands(he may be killed by mafia, but at least scum doesn't get an extra kill), if he's paranoid we could possibly not be told, and he's only confirmed town because he's dead, which doesn't help us. If he was yakked is the only way it would be beneficial.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

Page Break Vote Count

[4]Jungle: KevinM, Mentosman, Marshy, Rockin
[1]Gheb: KK
[3]KK: Gheb, Mcfox, Jungle
[1]Not Voting: Frozenflame

It takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is set for the last second of October 28th. EST

 

[DtJ Jungle]

KK what in the hell are you talking about? Even I've admitted I'm the better lynch than Kevin. Though you are increasingly making it look like you are the better lynch than me.

 

[DtJ Jungle]

ebwop: macman, lrn2count plz.

 

[DtJ Jungle]

srs mac...lrn 2 count.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

wtf @ Karth's analysis.... lol....

*sigh*

FF can see the karthik play more clearly now, esp. after JFs reaction to Karth's analysis. That sort of response is very townie esque, or straight up very gambity.

FF's still willing to lynch JF if people want to take the informational route, though FF also agrees KK is the best play via scum hunting, though FF's not sure the depth behind that scum hunting is sufficient to justify lynching karthik and hoping we pegged a maf over the guaranteed set of potential information gains that lynching Jungle brings.

 

[McFox]

That analysis did nothing to convince me that karthik was town.

Either way, it looks like jungle is the lynch today. We have two days left, but it doesn't look like anything else is going to happen at this point. I still feel like it's been a productive day though. Should we just hammer so we can move on? I'd be in favor of getting the maximum allotted time, but we did that yesterDay and the topic just festered for the last few days. If that's going to happen again then I'd rather just hammer and get the game moving again.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I don't think there's a lot more we can do right now so I'm dropping the hammer. It's been a productive day indeed but I don't think there's a need to wait any longer

Unvote Vote: Junglefever

 

[#HBC | Mac]

Day End Vote Count

[5]Jungle: KevinM, Mentosman, Marshy, Rockin, Gheb
[1]Gheb: KK
[2]KK: Mcfox, Jungle
[1]Not Voting: Frozenflame

It took 5 to lynch!


Aww, Maggie... what are you doing crawling around? Here let me take you back to your crib.

Maggie Simpson the tracker has been put back in her crib.

Night 2 actions fools! Due the last second of the 28th EST!

 

[#HBC | Mac]

"Awww! They canceled the itchy & scratchy show? My day can't be getting any worse."

Marshy, aka Itchy the Mason Recruiter no longer has a show.

D3 COMMENCE

Day Start Vote Count

[7]Not Voting:Mcfox, Rockin, Mentosman, KK, Kevin, Frozenflame, Gheb

It takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is set for the last second of November 14th. EST

 

[KevinM]

I investigated KK last night, I was roleblocked.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Kevin if you're cop, why are you still alive and why did you get a guilty on Jungle?
Mentos, you said lynching Jungle will give us guaranteed info. So what new info do we have now?
How many masons are still alive?

 

[KevinM]

1. My guess is probably to keep the WIFOM for you guys. If scum was smart they'd leave me alive so that discussion is once again surrounding me and whether my claim is a lie or not. As for the jungle incident, I'm either Paranoid, or insane. I'd say that there was a possibility I was bus driven or something, but I'm highly skeptical of that and don't even want to toy with that situation.

2. Why can't you make your own inferences.

3. NO!

Are you seriously asking the masons to claim when we haven't lynched scum yet?! Are you serious?! What does town benefit by having them claim. Terrible idea.

 

[McFox]

If your answer to 1. is correct, or at least along those lines, then I propose that we just ignore it. I'm not convinced you're bold scum at this point, just because of how terrible a play it would've been to come out and get a town tracker lynched if you weren't at least telling us the truth (I know, I know, WIFOM). I'm still convinced that karthik is the play.

And Gheb, seriously. This isn't the first time you've asked un-town questions. If you are town, think before you post stuff like that.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

What the f---? I didn't ask the masons to claim. I was asking how many masons are left. I'm not familiar with the way SWF masons are handeled so I have no idea if Marshy dying means that the mason disintegrates. I only know how it works on Epic Mafia but it could be quite different.

It was a simple question not a request for the masons to claim.

 

[McFox]

How can anyone besides a mason know how many of them are left? And how can they possibly tell you besides claiming?

I must not be following something correctly here.

 

[mentosman8]

I don't like that jungle flipped town. Honestly I'm somewhat stuck between believing kevin is a non-sane cop and he is a yakked cop. The play wouldn't have been bad as a yakked cop, claim with a guilty and only 1 result, so that you can claim paranoid/insane. Kevin does seem like a solid lynch choice although we will, obviously, need to think about our options.

 

[FrozenFlameDG]

fml

10fmls.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

FF feels that Gheb's question about the mason's was directed at everyone as a whole, as if to procure that information if it was publicly available. It seemed as if it was more of an operational question than a question targeted at the remaining masons.

The plain and simple answer is that Kev and McFox are right. Only the masons know how may of them remain, since the mechanics of the mason recruiter are unknown to us. If the specifics regarding the mason recruiter were revealed (i.e., does the masonry dissolve if the recruiter dies, etc.) then we would know the answer. FF thinks that Gheb was simply asking if this was information we had available.

Concerning Kev, FF is fairly uneasy. What FF first saw as an implausible gambit is now starting to look a bit off with the oh so convenient roleblock to prevent us from deducting exactly what Kev's cop nature is. Unfortunately this issue is steeped in yucky WIFOM. Further consideration is required.

 

[KevinM]

The problem is Frozen no matter what happened you're going to be stuck in WIFOM, I believe that's the reason I'm still left alive.

Had I gotten an inno it would have been the same thing, "Is he really insane, or is he playing off the fact we'll lynch another townie"

Had I gotten another guilty on someone I could just be looking to feign paranoid.

I think that's why I made it through N2.

And now being roleblocked I can give the town ZERO new information, which makes sense considering if I happen to be insane and get a townie read, mafia is down one player.

If I was paranoid I would have been cleared.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Right, FF completely understands that.

The issue with the "roleblock" is that it prevents us from ever resolving whether or not you are paranoid or insane. Because you've been roleblocked you can't be cleared, nor can we establish the either or possibilities of you being paranoid or feigning paranoid.

Cutting out possibility for confirmation makes in awfully convenient for charading scum to not have to come up with false reports and furthermore, keep his actual role identity perpetually unclear.

FF is still trying to decide if this is your own doing as a mafiat if you're bring framed.

 

[Rockin]

As much as I want to believe KevinM's story, I'm finding a hard time believing it. Lookie here.

Maggie Simpson the tracker has been put back in her crib.

I investigated KK last night, I was roleblocked.

I don't see the logic of a town roleblocker roleblocking KevinM at night, especially since Junglefever himself has come up innocent. There would be no reason for the roleblocker to roleblock KevinM at night, considering that from the lynch, he was either insane or paranoid. I'm a bit more convinced that KevinM has been yakked.

 

[karthik_king]

There are mafia roleblockers you know? But I do agree with your logic.

 

[Rockin]

There are mafia roleblockers you know? But I do agree with your logic.

Highly unlikely IMO. If there's a roleblocker, I want to believe that they're town.

 

[mentosman8]

As much as I want to believe KevinM's story, I'm finding a hard time believing it. Lookie here.





I don't see the logic of a town roleblocker roleblocking KevinM at night, especially since Junglefever himself has come up innocent. There would be no reason for the roleblocker to roleblock KevinM at night, considering that from the lynch, he was either insane or paranoid. I'm a bit more convinced that KevinM has been yakked.

First of all, there would be good logic for a townie roleblocker to block Kevin. The lynch did not mean that he was paranoid or insane, it could also mean(and you do mention it) that he was yakked. If that was the case a town role-blocking him could help to prove him inno/guilty. Also, I don't recall anyone claiming role-blocked yesterday, was there anyone? If not we have a good point against Kevin.

Now, on the other hand, a mafia roleblocker would have very good reason to roleblock Kevin, and this is where our decision needs to be made. If the mafia has a role-blocker, then after that lynch it would make every bit of sense to block him, in the event that he was insane and not just paranoid. I lean toward believing that he is yakked, but this option opens up an interesting avenue of possibilities as well.

 

[McFox]

If that was the case a town role-blocking him could help to prove him inno/guilty.

How though? I mean, we already have the info. that scenario would result in: Kev is claiming roleblocked. The only problem is we don't know from who. But even then, assuming the blocker is town, what if they're wrong? There seemed to be a general consensus (to me anyway) that once we got Kev's second investigation in, we'd be able to figure out what he was. But now that this has happened, we're just stuck. And even then, assuming it was a town blocker that thought Kev was yakked, what reason does Kev have to actually use his cop abilities anyway? (Also, does a person who's yakked even keep their roles?) If Kev were yakked, then he'd know who was scum, and by extension, who wasn't. He wouldn't need to investigate at all.

Then again, he obviously had to come back to the day with some kind of investigation. Claiming roleblocked is a good way to not lead another lynch on another townie, while also not finding scum either.

My point here is that the "Town roleblocker stopped Kev because they thought he was yakked" angle is hugely unlikely, at least to me. It doesn't make any sense. Even if they were sure that Kev had been yakked, then they'd also know that at that point he wouldn't need to investigate at all in order to come up with fairly accurate investigation results.

Also, I don't recall anyone claiming role-blocked yesterday, was there anyone?

No there wasn't. That doesn't mean it didn't happen though. When someone comes out and says "Hey guys I was roleblocked" that means that they do have a role. So maybe someone got blocked last night and just didn't speak up. Or maybe the blocker hit a VT. Or maybe there is no blocker at all.

 

[mentosman8]

Well, depends on the game if everyone finds out they were blocked or just PRs, which is also a possibility that makes town role-block make sense. Think of it this way: If the roleblocker was town and knew that if someone wasn't performing an action they wouldn't get told they were roleblocked, role-blocking Kevin would be perfect. If he claimed to have an investigation, RB claims, tells us they roleblocked him, and we know somethings up from one of them. If he claims role-blocked and it's a townie RB, it doesn't prove him innocent(could have to do with the kill allowing him to see), but they would at least know he has something to block. If the roleblocker informs everyone regardless of role they were blocked, then it obviously doesn't help nearly as much to do so, but DOES raise the question if you operate on that assumption that there was no claim yesterday and that would mean the role-blocked claim was a lie.

 

[KevinM]

I'd like to point out to you guys that roleblocker is a primarily mafia role. Not that I'm trying to discourage the conversation but for the most part its usually mafia aligned.

 

[KevinM]

Frozen I'd also like to point out that I'd address your second post to me but we both know we're just arguing WIFOM at this point.

Anyways I'm going to

Vote Karthik King

He's played incredibly scummy all of yesterday and he hasn't done much to contribute even though we're late in the game.

All I've seen from him has been terrible analysis' of the game and now just debating roleblocking alignments.

He didn't mention a single thing about what he felt about me being roleblocked his only post thus far has been to say "I agree with your logic"

 

[#HBC | marshy]

suck it scum go town

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Since we're most likely at either mylo or lylo: What do you guys think of a mass claim?

 

[McFox]

I honestly think a claim is a terrible idea.

I don't see how it could possibly help town at all. A claim would help scum a lot more than it would help us. They might be able to figure out which characters are what PRs (given, I didn't see it coming that Itchy could be a recruiter, but still), and we would get almost no information at all, because of the yak. Whoever got yakked still gets to claim their town role, so we couldn't even clear Homer, Bart, etc. We wouldn't be able to clear anyone and meanwhile we'd be outing roles.

Definite no, probably for the entire game. I don't see how we could possibly benefit more than scum by claiming.

 

[McFox]

And also, since you seem incapable of introducing an idea as anything other than a question posed to everyone else, what do you think about a claim Gheb?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I don't think it's as bad as you think. We already lost/outed a bunch of PRs (Cacti, Jungle, Marshy and Kevin) so I don't think there are too many left. Your concern is legit though I admit that but honestly I'm really confused as to whom I should believe right now. Kevin and KK are hardly trustworthy at this point and if we mislynch today we're screwed. I thought it would be good for town to get any info they need but if the majority is against a full claim I don't request anybody to do it.

Just a thought to get some discussion going because right now I feel like town is kind of losing it. Maybe it's just me but I couldn't tell who's the play toDay.

 

[McFox]

mentos, what you have to say about a possible town RB is possible, I suppose, but to me this whole thing just stinks of mafia intervention. Whether that means they're trying to frame Kev, or whether Kev has been yakked (or whether I'm wrong and it was a town RB) remains to be seen. However, assuming that I'm right and that it has something to do with scum, then it's obvious that the discussion that's been taking place today would be exactly what they wanted to happen.

I'm not saying not to hash out what could have happened last night. But I don't want people to lose sight that there's a very good case to be made against karthik (in fact, it's already been made). If we lynch him and he comes up scum, then we'd be in a pretty good position to win. If we go with Kev and he actually is town cop, then we are in terrible shape.

The difference between them is that the argument against Kev is almost 100% WIFOM, while the argument against karthik comes from actual scumhunting.

Not to mention that karthik was the only person in favor of a Kev lynch yesterday. So if we lynch karthik today, no matter which way he flips, it would yield info on Kev, helping us make a decision tomorrow.

I'm not going to vote him yet, since that'd put him at L-2, but that's my thoughts on the matter right now.

Maybe it's just me but I couldn't tell who's the play toDay.

You were the first person to make a case against steel. Has karthik's plays since then convinced you otherwise?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I'm really scared of the possibility of KK being actually town. I know it's very unlikely but who knows if Steel was just playing badly and KK was just ... doing his thing? YesterDay I was convinced that he's the play but now our options are very limited and the possibility that KK could be town makes very uneasy.
The main problem is that if out of Kev/KK only one but not the other is a scumbag we probably have at least another scumbag alive and I feel that only Kevin/KK have been talked about very much in this game. We have almost 0 info/opinions on Rockin/Frozen/Mentos/McFox/Myself, which is 5 out of the 7 players, who are still alive. Probably one of the reasons why I'm asking about opinions on the claim.

 

[Rockin]

First of all, there would be good logic for a townie roleblocker to block Kevin. The lynch did not mean that he was paranoid or insane, it could also mean(and you do mention it) that he was yakked. If that was the case a town role-blocking him could help to prove him inno/guilty. Also, I don't recall anyone claiming role-blocked yesterday, was there anyone? If not we have a good point against Kevin.[/color]

I don't see how a town roleblock could prove him inno/guilty at all, especially if he was insane or paranoid. If he's a normal cop, but yakked, he may as well be treated as a insane or paranoid, which would make him useless to town, cause all he'll do is just make up investigations or excuses so as to help town.

Now, on the other hand, a mafia roleblocker would have very good reason to roleblock Kevin, and this is where our decision needs to be made. If the mafia has a role-blocker, then after that lynch it would make every bit of sense to block him, in the event that he was insane and not just paranoid. I lean toward believing that he is yakked, but this option opens up an interesting avenue of possibilities as well.

regardless, insane or paranoid, the mafia would have little worry because of the fact that the alignment is messed up. KevinM claimed JF was mafia in his investigation on N1, but he turns up townie on D2.

I don't think it's as bad as you think. We already lost/outed a bunch of PRs (Cacti, Jungle, Marshy and Kevin) so I don't think there are too many left. Your concern is legit though I admit that but honestly I'm really confused as to whom I should believe right now. Kevin and KK are hardly trustworthy at this point and if we mislynch today we're screwed. I thought it would be good for town to get any info they need but if the majority is against a full claim I don't request anybody to do it.

Just a thought to get some discussion going because right now I feel like town is kind of losing it. Maybe it's just me but I couldn't tell who's the play toDay.

First of all, Cacti failed to propertly outted his role. Instead of saying 'Neiborly Doctor,' he says 'Doctor/watcher' combo, which in the end screwed him over. Junglefever only outted out his role cause he was investigated by KevinM, who I don't really know why he outted his role so early. I still felt he could've lynched Junglefever without outting his role so easily. Finally, Marshy never even outted his role in anyway.

Second, nameclaiming is a bad and useless idea. Like Mcfox explains, there would be no benefit for town at all. Remember, there's a person that has been yakked and he will most likely be clear. Also, I don't know how we're in a mylo/lylo situation. If it's right, there should be just two mafia's right?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

1. It doesn't change the fact that we lost 4 PRs
2. I wasn't proposing a nameclaim. I dismissed that idea at the end of D1 already.

 

[Rockin]

1. It doesn't change the fact that we lost 4 PRs
2. I wasn't proposing a nameclaim. I dismissed that idea at the end of D1 already.

1)We lost cacti only cause of stupidness of himself. Everyone else: fate was against them

2) Massclaim is still bad.