Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Flor@]

Is the fact that Sakurai unsuccessfully tried for over two years to implement ICs, and then chose to cut them above change their gimmick not enough evidence that popularity of all things is going to have a minimal effect on their fate this time around? They were apparently low priority before, why would returning to something the entire Smash 4 team wasn't able to manage at their peak manpower be higher priority now with the reduced team working on characters that won't likely continue to be a dead end under Sakurai's restrictive mentality?

Not only is the obstacle of even choosing to work on them present, but the one that prevented their inclusion in the first place is still one that likely needs to be solved before the team can move forward with them; it's not like Sakurai was amenable to changing them to a major degree before, why would now be especially different? Yes they are popular (though not as popular as several other cut characters), but Sakurai has stated before that he's aware of the effect cutting characters has on their demand, he was just as aware when he made the choice to deliberately cut them over change them.

I fail to see what part of this situation is both totally probable and in favour of the Ice Climbers' return in Smash 4. You don't seem to mention anything to the contrary of what I raised either, despite going on about research, most of your post is spent telling me how wrong I am. Where are these facts you're taking a hard look at? They're certainly present in my reasoning. Yours seemingly is "they'll be able to work on them harder now" even though that would take away from developing characters without such obstacles, and could very easily prove counterproductive considering they've been unsuccessfully at the ICs in Smash 4 for literally years.

And judging by your sig and icons, you're not one totally without bias yourself.

My point was not to call you out on incorrect facts or explain just how the ICs could perhaps come back.

It's one thing to say something to argue your point, it's another thing to completely discredit people when, really, there's no reason to do so. We're all friends, here. "Bias."All I said was that we're all prone to bias--mainly referring to myself. Never said you were. Regarding the ICs, as I said in my post with the percents in it, it's a complete toss-up for all we know. Perhaps Sakurai has something up his sleeve. Or he doesn't. Perhaps Sakurai really does feel strongly about the ICs and does want to put the work into reviving them. Perhaps he doesn't care. Perhaps Sakurai is willing to go back on his word in some way or some form again. Or perhaps he has changed and we should not judge him on those past decisions. I do not know. Nobody can act like they know what Sakurai and Iwata and the entire smash team are up to. Smash4 has thrived on hype, ill-founded or not. We can speculate about how much, or how little work he put into making the ICs work. But it's not certain and most if us don't know the hard facts that actually decide things like this. We dont know how much processing power it actually takes to run the ICs. We don't know how much of a task it was/would be to optimize them for the 3DS. An of course, we don't
know every reason Sakurai may have had to delay the development of the ICs, or if it ever even stopped. Only Sakurai knows.

But forget the Ice Climbers for moment. Tons of others provided their reasons for not expecting the Ice Climbers to come back, so that was not my reason for responding to you.

My reason for responding to you was the convey the message that the least we can all do is enjoy each other's company and refrain from putting each other down. While it's great to express how one feels about a character's chances of returning, at all costs we should just have fun and keep it clean. Maybe some of us have overly high hopes, and maybe our heads are in the clouds, but remember this isn't AP Stats. This is SmashBoards. We're just here to see what others think, right? And finally, I'm not here to argue. I'm here to have fun and spread it around.

So I encourage all of us to maintain a similar attitude.

 

[N3ON]

The voting for them is no longer frozen so we can nominate them, but so far we haven't covered either of them since then...

Ah so they were frozen. I was wondering why they hadn't shown up yet.

I think bias was freely admitted and it was as much a defense of the ideas of his comrades as it was an argument about what's "realistic" in terms of the ICs chances. What's "realistic" may be different for different people for different reasons. I imagine most people have considered ICs limitations in this thread. Some IC fans like Flor@ just appear to be on the optimistic side of things. Yeah, bias has influence. Works the other way though too. It's why we take averages at the end of each day. It accepts both optimistic and pessimistic assessments and gives us a relatively realistic average. It's hard to say what it all means either. When all the data is gathered, it's still just our average guess at best.

The average isn't necessarily a realistic representation, it's an aggregate and still completely susceptible to bias causing questionable ratings.

It doesn't matter which character is in question, faulty logic presides when the use of facts and precedent can be chalked up to pessimism. Realism may be subjective, but if the basis of such "realistic" views ignore the reality of the situation it's an ill-informed conclusion whether it lies towards the positive or the negative. When people rely on their hopes instead of what is observable or tangible to reach a conclusion and ignore development habits and procedure, that is indeed optimism clouding realism.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Wonder Red Predictions- 21%
I must be a bit shaky on the rules. Why aren't we doing the concept at the top of the nomination list?

There were a couple of nominations between my update earlier this evening and the time @ colder_than_ice closed the day, which he accounted for when announcing the next day. You can always check the bottom of my post to see the last time the nominations list was updated! :D

The winners of the ICs prediction, each getting FIVE bonus noms are @Serell @KingBro1 and @Amiiboshiibo

 

[Kalimdori]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

King K. Rool Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

Inkling Chance: 50%
Want: 20%

Rayman Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Chance: 40%
Want: 60%

Dixie Chances: 39%
Want: 49%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Quote Chance: 10%
Want: 95%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

Shovel Knight Chance: 3%
Want: 70%

Sceptile Chance: 25%

People are talking about Sceptile as if it is just "One of hundreds" when it comes to Pokemon, which I find silly.

Sceptile is a starter Pokemon, meaning that it's already more popular then the majority of the Pokemon in existence. Not only that, it got an awesome Mega Evolution, and it played a large role in the anime as Ash's Gen 3 starter Pokemon, which sets it even further apart from other Pokemon. And the recent Hoenn remakes make it one of the most "current" (Getting sick of the word "relevant") Pokemon at this time.

Honestly, the only Pokemon I can think that would outclass Sceptile is Pichu, and that's only because Pichu's a veteran and would take almost no effort to make. Sceptile would represent the 3rd generation of Pokemon, which has never had a playable Pokemon. It would complete the Fire/Water/Grass Starter Pokemon trinity, one of the most iconic features of the Pokemon series. And, while it's not the most popular suggestion for the fighter ballot, it does have its fans, and based on what I've seen, it is the most requested Pokemon to get onto the roster.

Credential wise, Sceptiles a strong candidate to be DLC! But then there's the problem of ...

Sceptile's chances basically boil down to if Pokemon could get two representatives as DLC characters. Along with DK, Pokemon is a franchise that I could see getting two representatives, due to how insanely popular the series is. I don't think a rule exists that there can be only one character per franchise as DLC, but I would assume that we'd need several other characters before Sakurai would consider one. So, in my eyes, this basically boils down to how much DLC we will actually get. I'd guess that around 10ish characters Sakurai would start considering a second rep for DLC, and I'm already certain we'll get at least 8, so I'll give Sceptile a 25% chance. If we get plenty of DLC, he's got a strong chance, just depends on IF we get plenty of DLC.

Want: 100%

Favorite. Pokemon. Ever.

Pokemon Emerald was my first Pokemon game, and Sceptile was my first ever starter Pokemon. I've got so much nostalgia blindness for this Pokemon, love its design, love using it in battle, love its mega evolution, love it in the anime, even added 5% to his chance rating because of nostalgia. (Deal with it ) After Rayman, there isn't a character not already on the roster that I have more personal ties to then Sceptile, and I'd explode from happiness if it got in.

Wonder Red Predictions: 8%

If he gets a sequel, or his current game gets a massive boost in sales (Doubt it) I'd put him higher, but until then there's not much of a point in adding him.

Noms:
Any NPC becoming playable x5

 

[Mikegamer0608]

Sceptile
Chance: 10%
Want: 5%
All I gotta say is....NO MORE POKEMON REPS........That is all.

Nom: Black Mage x5

 

[Deleted member]

The winners of the ICs prediction, each getting FIVE bonus noms are @Serell @KingBro1 and @Amiiboshiibo

Five more nominations to Zael then.

 

[N3ON]

My point was not to call you out on incorrect facts or explain just how the ICs could perhaps come back.

It's one thing to say something to argue your point, it's another thing to completely discredit people when, really, there's no reason to do so. We're all friends, here. "Bias."All I said was that we're all prone to bias--mainly referring to myself. Never said you were. Regarding the ICs, as I said in my post with the percents in it, it's a complete toss-up for all we know. Perhaps Sakurai has something up his sleeve. Or he doesn't. Perhaps Sakurai really does feel strongly about the ICs and does want to put the work into reviving them. Perhaps he doesn't care. Perhaps Sakurai is willing to go back on his word in some way or some form again. Or perhaps he has changed and we should not judge him on those past decisions. I do not know. Nobody can act like they know what Sakurai and Iwata and the entire smash team are up to. Smash4 has thrived on hype, ill-founded or not. We can speculate about how much, or how little work he put into making the ICs work. But it's not certain and most if us don't know the hard facts that actually decide things like this. We dont know how much processing power it actually takes to run the ICs. We don't know how much of a task it was/would be to optimize them for the 3DS. An of course, we don't
know every reason Sakurai may have had to delay the development of the ICs, or if it ever even stopped. Only Sakurai knows.

But forget the Ice Climbers for moment. Tons of others provided their reasons for not expecting the Ice Climbers to come back, so that was not my reason for responding to you.

My reason for responding to you was the convey the message that the least we can all do is enjoy each other's company and refrain from putting each other down. While it's great to express how one feels about a character's chances of returning, at all costs we should just have fun and keep it clean. Maybe some of us have overly high hopes, and maybe our heads are in the clouds, but remember this isn't AP Stats. This is SmashBoards. We're just here to see what others think, right? And finally, I'm not here to argue. I'm here to have fun and spread it around.

So I encourage all of us to maintain a similar attitude.

Again, the defense that "we don't know what will happen" is not reason to give more or equal credence to outcomes with much less in their favour. It's reason to not completely omit a possibility, that doesn't mean you give it 50/50 likelihood just because it could happen. My intent was never to suggest the ICs couldn't come back, it was to say that giving them a coin flip's chance is turning a blind eye to all we know surrounding their removal.

It's great that you're here to have fun, but if you're going to present a point, detract from mine, and claim you have hard facts to support your stance, you might as well at least present them instead of the age old "anything could happen" crutch. If you're going to sound off claims that ICs are "totally probable and within reason" you're going to have to do better than "maybe Sakurai will, maybe Sakurai won't" because as it stands now there's a lot more reason to believe it's "maybe Sakurai won't".

And look, I'm sorry if my post upset you, but I'm not here to make friends, I'm here to talk about Smash. I didn't insult anyone, I didn't even say anything overly inflammatory, and I'm not going to censor myself when people simply have the option of ignoring me if they don't like what I'm saying. Smashboards is a place to discuss Smash, if we were here purely to see what others think the quote option wouldn't exist. You need to be alright with people calling your claims into question without resorting to shifting the topic to how we should all just be having fun and playing fair. I've spent time as a mod before, I know what crosses the line and what doesn't. If you're not having fun talking to me... no one is forcing you to continue...

I mean if you now want to play the pacifist who is just here to see what people think and abstain from arguments, keep in mind you were the one who responded to me about how infuriated you were.

 

[jahkzheng]

Ah so they were frozen. I was wondering why they hadn't shown up yet.


The average isn't necessarily a realistic representation, it's an aggregate and still completely susceptible to bias causing questionable ratings.

It doesn't matter which character is in question, faulty logic presides when the use of facts and precedent can be chalked up to pessimism. Realism may be subjective, but if the basis of such "realistic" views ignore the reality of the situation it's an ill-informed conclusion whether it lies towards the positive or the negative. When people rely on their hopes instead of what is observable or tangible to reach a conclusion and ignore development habits and procedure, that is indeed optimism clouding realism.

I did say "relatively". It can be assumed that the average of all assessments represents a more realistic outlook relative to outlier assessments that may be overly optimistic or pessimistic. I understand that even then, it doesn't "necessarily" represent realism.

Spoiler

We're making our best guesses, but much of how were going about it requires a subjective weighing of the variables. Honestly, in this exercise where we know so little of the variables, our window for what's "realistic" can be quite large. I don't think it's unrealistic to say, for instance, that Isaac has somewhere between a 10 to 70% chance. We're all, for the most part, seeing the same thing in a different way. How much do you think popularity will matter and does the ballot even represent what we know of character support? How much do you think relevancy will matter? How many characters are we even getting? And specifically, how big were the limitations on the ICs inclusion? We can only make our best guesses, and as a result, it's really subjective... although logic may lead us to a standard or average conclusion.

The numbers themselves can be interpreted differently as well. What does 70% mean? What does 10% mean? I know there's a literal meaning, but people can interpret how the variables they've weighed influence the odds. The biggest variable is just how much DLC we can expect. If you believe popularity is the top most weighted variable and we're only getting one character from the ballot, you might believe K. Rool has a 90% chance and all other characters are fighting for a fragment of 10%. If you think we're getting 10 characters and weigh popularity above all else you might still give K. Rool a 90% chance, but you're more free to hand out 60 or 70 percent chances to other characters. Add to that varying takes on what exactly matters the most in terms of character inclusion and you have a lot of wiggle room for what could be called "realistic". The ICs and Snake truly present more variables than most and thus have the largest windows for what would qualify as "realistic chances".

What's funny about all this is there won't be any proof of who's chance guess was closest in reality. A character's inclusion is a yes, no proposition. Only those that said a character had 0% or 100% chance can be proven wrong. It's those guesses that are the only truly fully unrealistic guesses. The 10% and 90%'s out there may be quite pessimistic or optimistic but as long as the recognize that nothing is known absolutely, they're not entirely unrealistic... only relatively.

 

[N3ON]

I did say "relatively". It can be assumed that the average of all assessments represents a more realistic outlook relative to outlier assessments that may be overly optimistic or pessimistic. I understand that even then, it doesn't "necessarily" represent realism.

Spoiler

We're making our best guesses, but much of how were going about it requires a subjective weighing of the variables. Honestly, in this exercise where we know so little of the variables, our window for what's "realistic" can be quite large. I don't think it's unrealistic to say, for instance, that Isaac has somewhere between a 10 to 70% chance. We're all, for the most part, seeing the same thing in a different way. How much do you think popularity will matter and does the ballot even represent what we know of character support? How much do you think relevancy will matter? How many characters are we even getting? And specifically, how big were the limitations on the ICs inclusion? We can only make our best guesses, and as a result, it's really subjective... although logic may lead us to a standard or average conclusion.

The numbers themselves can be interpreted differently as well. What does 70% mean? What does 10% mean? I know there's a literal meaning, but people can interpret how the variables they've weighed influence the odds. The biggest variable is just how much DLC we can expect. If you believe popularity is the top most weighted variable and we're only getting one character from the ballot, you might believe K. Rool has a 90% chance and all other characters are fighting for a fragment of 10%. If you think we're getting 10 characters and weigh popularity above all else you might still give K. Rool a 90% chance, but you're more free to hand out 60 or 70 percent chances to other characters. Add to that varying takes on what exactly matters the most in terms of character inclusion and you have a lot of wiggle room for what could be called "realistic". The ICs and Snake truly present more variables than most and thus have the largest windows for what would qualify as "realistic chances".

What's funny about all this is there won't be any proof of who's chance guess was closest in reality. A character's inclusion is a yes, no proposition. Only those that said a character had 0% or 100% chance can be proven wrong. It's those guesses that are the only truly fully unrealistic guesses. The 10% and 90%'s out there may be quite pessimistic or optimistic but as long as the recognize that nothing is known absolutely, they're not entirely unrealistic... only relatively.

So if you saw lots of people giving a character ratings you believed were way out of whack you would sit by and say nothing?

I guess the difference is that I didn't. I don't care if it doesn't change things, these ratings don't mean anything anyway, I'm still going to voice my opinion.

 

[jahkzheng]

Again, the defense that "we don't know what will happen" is not reason to give more or equal credence to outcomes with much less in their favour. It's reason to not completely omit a possibility, that doesn't mean you give it 50/50 likelihood just because it could happen. My intent was never to suggest the ICs couldn't come back, it was to say that giving them a coin flip's chance is turning a blind eye to all we know surrounding their removal.

It's great that you're here to have fun, but if you're going to present a point, detract from mine, and claim you have hard facts to support your stance, you might as well at least present them instead of the age old "anything could happen" crutch. If you're going to sound off claims that ICs are "totally probable and within reason" you're going to have to do better than "maybe Sakurai will, maybe Sakurai won't" because as it stands now there's a lot more reason to believe it's "maybe Sakurai won't".

And look, I'm sorry if my post upset you, but I'm not here to make friends, I'm here to talk about Smash. I didn't insult anyone, I didn't even say anything overly inflammatory, and I'm not going to censor myself when people simply have the option of ignoring me if they don't like what I'm saying. Smashboards is a place to discuss Smash, if we were here purely to see what others think the quote option wouldn't exist. You need to be alright with people calling your claims into question without resorting to shifting the topic to how we should all just be having fun and playing fair. I've spent time as a mod before, I know what crosses the line and what doesn't. If you're not having fun talking to me... no one is forcing you to continue...

I mean if you now want to play the pacifist who is just here to see what people think and abstain from arguments, keep in mind you were the one who responded to me about how infuriated you were.

At the end of the day, despite our best efforts to weigh every variable, it really does come down to "maybe Sakurai will, maybe he wont". Even the best assessed character that somehow everyone agrees has a 99% chance, can still pull a 1% on us. And like I said in my spoiler above, there's no way to know for sure what the odds ever were. We'll only know if a character is in or not.

That's not to say we shouldn't try and be as logical in our assessments as we can. I understand some assessments seem more unrealistic than others, but I can't really prove that someone's subjective feeling on the weight of some variable is wrong, only that it seems unlikely to me, and what do I know?

So if you saw lots of people giving a character ratings you believed were way out of whack you would sit by and say nothing?

I guess the difference is that I didn't. I don't care if it doesn't change things, these ratings don't mean anything anyway, I'm still going to voice my opinion.

I'd probably let my own assessment speak for itself rather than address someone else's. But if it felt like everyone had the wrong idea in my opinion about the odds, I might make a general comment admittedly and explain my reasoning. I've fortunately not run into that problem yet. Even when we got to my most wanted character's day (Krystal) I freely admitted that I expected her to get lower chance ratings because people would assume that Wolf would be in to her exclusion. I weighed that variable a little less than others because I believed that Star Fox Wii U would give them both an opportunity. Of course, I'm assuming we're getting more than just 2 or 3 ballot characters. There's a lot of subjective stuff going on. I don't think I was being unrealistic and I fully understood the reasoning of those that disagreed. I'd feel a bit disappointed if every single person felt that way but me however.

To bring it back a little... I mentioned how, in your hypothetical scenario, I'd explain my reasoning. I'm curious about your reasoning for why the ICs limitations are so clearly significant in your opinion. There's a good chance I'll agree with you if you've seen my assessment of them, but it's likely that I'll also see where those that rated them high still have decent reasoning too, even if I don't agree with them necessarily.

 

[Flor@]

Again, the defense that "we don't know what will happen" is not reason to give more or equal credence to outcomes with much less in their favour. It's reason to not completely omit a possibility, that doesn't mean you give it 50/50 likelihood just because it could happen. My intent was never to suggest the ICs couldn't come back, it was to say that giving them a coin flip's chance is turning a blind eye to all we know surrounding their removal.

It's great that you're here to have fun, but if you're going to present a point, detract from mine, and claim you have hard facts to support your stance, you might as well at least present them instead of the age old "anything could happen" crutch. If you're going to sound off claims that ICs are "totally probable and within reason" you're going to have to do better than "maybe Sakurai will, maybe Sakurai won't" because as it stands now there's a lot more reason to believe it's "maybe Sakurai won't".

And look, I'm sorry if my post upset you, but I'm not here to make friends, I'm here to talk about Smash. I didn't insult anyone, I didn't even say anything overly inflammatory, and I'm not going to censor myself when people simply have the option of ignoring me if they don't like what I'm saying. Smashboards is a place to discuss Smash, if we were here purely to see what others think the quote option wouldn't exist. You need to be alright with people calling your claims into question without resorting to shifting the topic to how we should all just be having fun and playing fair. I've spent time as a mod before, I know what crosses the line and what doesn't. If you're not having fun talking to me... no one is forcing you to continue...

I mean if you now want to play the pacifist who is just here to see what people think and abstain from arguments, keep in mind you were the one who responded to me about how infuriated you were.

For one previously designated as a mod you are quite the instigator--not to state that I did not sort of instigate this with my quote, but come on man it's like you're pourin fuel on the fire. I was aggressive in my first post but I feel a bit taunted by your replies while I'm trying to take it down a couple notches. Gimme some credit for being civil.

Anyways that's not so important--my main point has already been stated, and even though you speak with good reasons for cutting ICs from the Wii U and 3DS, we will never be able to reach an agreement with the limited information we possess. The facts I need are held within the non-facts. And if this is beyond your understanding, or simply outside of your range of acceptable argumentative points, then the entire 'argument' is pointless. I cannot win. You cannot win. I can't prove that Sakurai feels like so and so, but I definitely feel like he could. Apply that to you and Sakurai with the opposite though. I don't believe a 50% rating on the Ice Climbers coming back is unrealistic, but its seems like you do. Thus the only reasonable conclusion to this fued is to wait it out and have fun in the meantime. I'm not trying to skip around the argument, so please understand that I cannot proove anything. I'm not here to convince you that I'm right, only that it's a possibility that cannot be disproven quite yet. There are simply some things you can't argue. You can't really argue that I'm wrong--only that I'm unrealistic. And I can't prove I'm right. So on and so forth. I just wanted to say that ya oughtta respect that people have different opinions than you that you can't do anything about. They're not necessarily unrealistic, they just seem so due to your perspective lol. Heh. Maybe I'll never be able to do anything about you not understanding and accepting where I'm coming from here. We have truly reached the epitomy of pointless arguments. Philosophical arguments on theoretical realities.

 

[Ura]

Sceptile

Chance: 10%

Don't really see Sceptile getting in with Mewtwo in as DLC

Want: 30%

I'm not opposed to the character's entry by any means. I just don't have much interest in seeing Sceptile in Smash.

Nominations

Roy X3
Lyn X1
Ninten X1

 

[YoshiandToad]

Spoiler

K. Rool:
Day missed. Absent.

Banjo-Kazooie:
Chance: 9%, Want: 85%

Isaac:
Chance: 55%, Want: 75%

Bandana Dee:
Chance: 40%, Want: 100%

Captain Toad:
Chance: 45%, Want: 100%

Krystal:
Chance: 25%, Want: 50%

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 66%, Want: 100%

Impa:
Chance: 28%, Want: 100%

Shantae:
Chance: 1%, Want: 5%

Inklings:
Chance: 62%, Want: 70%

Rayman:
Chance: 33%, Want: 90%


Day missed. Whoops.


Chance: 100%, Want: 80%

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0.3%, Want: 0%

Quote
Chance: 0.5%, Want: 3%


Chance: 5%, Want: 10%

Sceptile
Ah Sceptile. Actually one of my favourite starters of the whole series, despite the fact he's a grass type and therefore weak to everything from a light breeze, to insect bites, to the temperature changing a few degrees in either direction. Get it together grass types.

Chance: 20%
Mewtwo already being DLC? Doesn't matter. This is a reps argument, and Pokemon sells like hotcakes. Nintendo not using their second most profitable franchise, nay, the second most profitable video game franchise in the world, would be sheer idiocy should they want some sure fire DLC sales.

Sceptile doesn't matter? Wrong again. All Starters are important to the franchise, certainly more so than the vast majority of Pokemon out there.

My main concern when rating Sceptile's chance isn't these things, but whether or not Sceptile is popular enough as a starter to get in over returning Veteran Pokemon such as Ivysaur, Squirtle and Pichu.

Sceptile is popular, sure, but he's not the undisputed king of grass starters with Bulbasaur and Snivy's lines are around. Hell, with Blaziken being a thing and Mudkip being a ridiculously popular meme several years back, he's not even the most popular Gen 3 starter...or even the second most popular Gen 3 starter.

What he does have is being bipedal, which whilst not always important(Ivysaur and Duck Hunt say hi) seems to be the vast majority of the Roster, and a recent game in ORAS pushing him and his new Mega Form ahead of his fellow grass starters. This is if Sakurai even WANTS a grass starter to keep a balanced Pokemon trio which in itself is a large leap of logic.

Want: 55%
I'll admit, I wouldn't mind seeing Sceptile in. He's my favourite starter of my favourite generation.
There are other more unlikely Pokemon I'd like to see prior to him (,/,/) but they're all less likely than he is for a variety of reasons(curse you Meowth Pokeball) but should he get in, he'd probably be my Pokemon of choice for Smash.

That said, there are other characters from other franchises I'd prefer first too.

Wonder Red Prediction: Wonderful 101%

Nominations:
X 3
x 2

 

[IvanQuote]

I think I get extra votes, as my IC chance predict was only .16% off? If not, correct me and divide my noms by 2.

Not Grovyle:

Chance: 20%

Sakurai already added a Pokémon via DLC; I think he'll want to mix up the remaining characters. In terms of Grass starters, it is the mist likely I see, save Ivysaur.

Want: 0%

Here we go...First off, I don't like Sceptile. I much prefer Marshtomp and Blaziken, and even though my favorite starters are grass in general, Sceptile is probably my second least favorite, above Torterra. The only thing I like in his family is due to you-know-who in Mystery Dungeon Explorers. Frankly if I were to have a grass starter, I'd rather Ivysaur, Meganium, or Serperior. Second, I feel that Mario and Pokémon are a bit over represented already, so I'd rather not another one.

Wonder Red predict:

Chance: 33%

Want: 53%

Noms: 6x Homecoming Hijinx song

4x Moonstruck Blossom song

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Day 17: Sceptile
Once again - here's all my previous evaluations:

Spoiler

K.Rool Chance: 87% Want: 100
Banjo & Kazooie Chance: 3% Want: 14%
Isaac Chance: 70% Want: 90%
Bandanna Dee Chance: 42% Want: 50%
Captain Toad: Abstained chance and want
Krystal Chance: 36% Want: 71%
Dixie Kong Chance: 40% Want: 43%
Impa Chance: 35% Want 79%
Shantae Chance: 10% Want 54%
Inklings Chance: 31% Want: 51%
Rayman Chance: 61% Want 89%
Snake Chance: 35% Want: 50%
Wolf Chance: 98% Want: 100%
Shovel Knight Chance: 13% Want 65%
Quote Chance 8% Want: 4%
Ice Climbers Chance: 25% Want: 40%

Chances: 12.60%
Since we got Mewtwo (who's inclusion is very important for the Pokémon series in Smash Bros and well-deserved), I feel like overcrowding the Pokémon characters might be a bit too much for this game. Mewtwo was the only outlier left for the Pokémon series' representation, and Sceptile might not be seen by Sakurai with the same importance he had with Mewtwo or Greninja.

Want: 52% I'd rather Grovyle since I've got a personal history with it

Spoiler

I released my Grovyle for no reason back when I was a kid in Sapphire. WHYYY?! If releasing your Starter Pokémon wasn't bad enough -

Spoiler

I ran away from Kyogre because I was terrified of it's Cry

Shameful, I know.

and it had a memorable role in Explorers of Time and Darkness, so I'd rather see Grovyle in Smash, and Sceptile for Pokken Tournament. That said, I feel satisfied with the current Pokémon line-up now that Mewtwo's back.

I just realised - Roy X5

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Sceptile
Chance: 5% Why should he be picked over all the other Pokemon?

Want: 0%
I've never really been too into Pokemon, aside from watching the XY anime and Pokemon X, I don't really do much Pokemon stuff, that and I think we don't really need to many more Pokemon reps. Even if there would be another Pokemon rep, I'd rather see someone like Gengar, Gurdurr, or Lysandre (not solely using Pokemon).

Nomination: BB bandit trio X5

 

[Delzethin]

Stay aware of your surroundings, mind the tall grass, make sure not to lock eyes with any strang--hey wait, was that a shiny?

-♪-

Sceptile

Chance: 32.5%
Ask most people about another Pokémon character's chances, and you'll probably get a caveat thrown in at the end. Something, to them, all but ruins any chance they'd have. It's big, purple, and has tremendous psychic powers.

Everyone seems to think Mewtwo automatically rules out another Pokémon from getting in...but not when the dev team doesn't think in terms of reps. Going off what we know, they'd be perfectly fine adding another one, as long as it met their criteria.

And that is where Sceptile shines.

Many of Sceptile's supporters point out how we don't have a Grass starter on the roster right now. For some it's for the novelty of having a full starter trio in Smash, which is...honestly, not the most valid argument. But the lack of Grass starter does mean something: the niche of a character with plant-based powers is wide open. The biggest factor they look for in a newcomer is uniqueness, and Sceptile just so happens to come with an element no other character touches.

But that's not all! The other big thing they look for is moveset potential...but most Pokémon characters have naturally high moveset potential due to all the techniques they learn in the games, and Sceptile is no exception! I mean, do a search around Smashboards or elsewhere online for Sceptile movesets, and see just how many plausible options there are. Leaf Blade variants for days! Razor Leaf! Energy Ball! Bullet Seed! Grass Knot! X-Scissor! Acrobatics! Fury Cutter! Pursuit! Absorb! Leaf Tornado! Solarbeam! And of course, the brand new Mega Sceptile to be worked into a Final Smash! In fact, combine the nature-based powers with the blade-based and agility-based attacks Sceptile can learn, and we're looking at moveset potential that is actually higher than direct rival Ivysaur!

What could undermine Sceptile's chances, though? A rather...inconsistent level of support. Usually showing up in the 10-20 range in polls, the popularity's there, just not at the level of the frontrunners. It seems like too many people are still caught up in this "reps" nonsense, assuming he'd get rejected because Mewtwo's already in. There are others who think Blaziken is more likely anyway, even though Blaziken is already a stage element--check out the background of the Kalos League's fire form--and would feel more redundant among the characters already in that use fire for physical attacks.

However...as you've heard me say before, it's more complicated than it looks. Sceptile isn't ranking among the highest...and yet, as we've seen in this very thread, he's still very well liked, and was one of the fans' favorite Grass starters even before Hoenn got confirmed. It seems that for now, other characters are just more important to them. Meanwhile, several of the characters in front of Sceptile have issues that could hold them back, whether from being too much trouble to get the rights for, being too new to take a risk on yet, feeling thematically redundant next to the current roster, or just flat out not fitting the rank of all-star. Sceptile's biggest competition could come from within the Pokémon fandom itself...but so far, it's a competition he's winning. In most unofficial polls, Sceptile has far more votes than any other Pokémon character, even the veterans.

We'll have to see if that fringe support is enough...but if it is, Sceptile brings enough uniqueness and enough potential that the developers would not veto him.

Want: 90%
I tend to write long ass essays for characters I'm invested in. Have you noticed yet?

It's like I've said before. I get interested in characters for their moveset potential, and damn does that apply here. A new Grass-type would feel like a breath of fresh air, and this one in particular is really freaking cool. I mean, come on, a human-sized raptor-gecko-thing with a tree for a tail and razor sharp leaves growing from its forearms?

And while I acknowledge Ivysaur would still be as unique as she was in Brawl, I think Gen 1 has enough of the spotlight already, you know? The newer gens are just as valid and just as worthy of attention, and this could be a way to better represent the franchise as a whole instead of putting so much undue focus on its first games.


Wonder Red Prediction: 22.5%
Hoo boy. A character with on-and-off support from a new series, but one that has its foot in the door already (via trophies). This one's hard to call.


Nominations: Paper Mario x5

 

[Arcanir]

Sceptile
Chance: 10%
I really don't put much stock in the whole "GWF" trio and "Gen 3 (ORAS) representation" arguments, neither of which seems to really matters that much considering we went by Smash 4 without either. If there really was a necessity for it, he would've probably been in the base game to begin with. So that leaves his popularity, and it's pretty lukewarm in terms of both Pokémon itself and Smash. For the former, he comes from a series with many different choices even if you restrict the pool, and in said pool, he's never been a standout Pokémon compared to those like Blaziken or Mewtwo, or ridiculously popular like Greninja, Gardevoir or Lugia. Even in his generation he wasn't a real strong candidate, Blaziken weas more popular and notable then him, Gardevoir has started to rise to become one of the most notable after being a Champion's main Pokemon, and hell, arguably Swampert is more popular then him, so he doesn't have that strong a standing in his own series. So that leaves Smash, and the same thing applies. He's never been one of the big standouts and that's lessened with time now that ORAS is out and starting to fade in hype. Even with what we've seen with the ballot, he's pretty much doing average on it and not having a huge amount of support like the others, so he doesn't make the best case for himself in comparison to other Nintendo candidates and third parties.

So overall, I feel he's not that strong a character, two of his good points don't seem to have a lot of weight to them, his best point is pretty average, and none of those points get rid of his other troubles. I will give him a bit of credit for his support, but it doesn't seem to be enough to overlook the other issues the character has.

Want: 10%
Bkupa666 and a few others have said that we don't play as reps, we play as characters, and I feel it's that statement really plays into Sceptile. His support really hinged on the whole GWF trio thing and Gen 3 representation, and that bothers me a bit as that seemed to be the driving force for him rather then the character himself. Him being a Grass type as well as a Gen 3 rep isn't enough for me to consider him a strong character nor ignore his faults like his lack of general popularity in the Pokémon fandom. This is especially the case if that's going to be what pushes him ahead of others like Blaziken, who's much more popular, notable, and a "Gen 3 rep," and yet is more ignored just because he doesn't have the right typing. So while he is a decent character in his own right, I don't like the idea of having him playable just so he can be a "rep."

 

[NebulaWords]

Day 17 : SCEPTILE
Chance: 45%
Fans have been asking for him and he could be a good candidate to complete the Starter Trio. But there's already too many Pokémon rep' and with Mewtwo now, his chance went down a bit.

Want : 70%
Pokémon Emerald was my first game and I'm still a Pokémon fan, true Sceptile was not my starter (Swampert was <3) but it would be cool to have him ! Plus he is agile, hits hard and his Mega-Evolution is freaking badass ! It would be cool to see him Mega-Evolve and attack quicker and harder.

Wonder Red :
Prediction: 12%

Nominations: Geno (Super Mario RPG) x5 (Am I the only one who nominates him here ? .-. Feel kinda alone here ;v; )

 

[ShinyRegice]

I thought the Sceptile bandwagon had stopped months ago and that he would get mostly <10% chances ratings. How god I was wrong...

Sceptile chances: 0.05%
The speculation about Sceptile becoming a playable character in Smash stands on only one thing, "Have a Grass starter", alongside a few other things like "Represent Hoenn", which are all weak reasons to include him imo. The starter triangle mattered in Brawl because 1) they were all from the same generation and 2) they were tied to the Pokémon trainer, thus giving added value to this triangle. But considering character switching is no longer a thing, and the type effectiveness mechanic was removed, and Charizard and Greninja weren't chosen for their typing anyway, the starter triangle becomes fully disposable in Smash 4 and a poor reason to include Sceptile.

That said, Greninja was added due to arbitrary reasons as well (mostly for the sake of having a playable representative of the most recent generation), so Sceptile could happen as well, and I give him a chances score slightly higher than a flat zero if only for the "Anything can happen" clause.

Sceptile want: 0%
Warning: rant incoming. Pokémon Ruby was the first Pokémon game I ever owned, and I loved it. I played through it multiple times and discovered almost all gen 3 Pokémon without any other source like the internet or the Pokémon anime (which I didn't really care about at the time). I used all three starters in different playthrough and I loved them. And you know what? Sceptile was my first level 100 Pokémon ever.

That said, that doesn't mean I think he deserves to be in Smash Bros. His strongest merit is generally said to be his Grass typing to complete the starter trio, but I don't see any real value in this argument. Charizard is playable because he's a veteran with huge star power by himself, and Greninja was chosen because... well, for the sake of it to be honest >_> but neither of them were chosen because of their typing and I see no need to complete the trio. I was so tired to hear everywhere that we needed a Grass starter to complete the trio during the months following Greninja's reveal, an annoying bandwagon which became even worse with the reveal of Pokémon ORAS and Mega Sceptile and turned me off from what is one of my favourite Pokémon of my childhood.

Not to mention ORAS are quite often mentioned as a reason to include Sceptile as a playable character in Smash... which is also an argument that annoys me a lot. I admit recent relevance often helps characters to make in Smash, but that's because good characters ideas from the past become more and more sparse after each Smash installment and not for the sake of recency, and I hate the idea of characters getting in for the sake of getting a character from the most recent installment of a series without a proof that this character stands out as a choice for Smash or can most likely stand the test of time as a flagship character from his or her series in the future. For this reason I'm still not keen about having Greninja in the playable roster because he was mostly added for the sake of having a representative for gen 6, which was something actually confirmed by Sakurai himself.

Adding a questionable character choice for the sake of completing a very disposable trio especially when one of these is another questionable character choice who actually made into Smash for completely different reasons would be an absolutely terrible roster decision imo, and I absolutely don't see Sceptile as a character worthy of being in a massive Nintendo All-Star crossover as a playable character. I don't care if there's moveset potential or anything, I just don't see what makes him more standing-out and deserving than a lot of other Pokémon, including but not limited to Venusaur, Snorlax, Blaziken, Gardevoir, Metagross, Gengar, Volcarona, Abomasnow, Eevee, Aegislash, Mawile, Keldeo, or Magikarp... speaking of which, I'd love to play as Nintendo's flagship joke character in Smash, much more than Sceptile who would just feel like a random choice to me.

Wonder Red prediction: 11.12%
His game wasn't much of a success, so I'm not expecting high scores.

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

 

[Delzethin]

So that leaves his popularity, and it's pretty lukewarm in terms of both Pokémon itself and Smash. For the former, he comes from a series with many different choices even if you restrict the pool, and in said pool, he's never been a standout Pokémon compared to those like Blaziken or Mewtwo, or ridiculously popular like Greninja, Gardevoir or Lugia. Even in his generation he wasn't a real strong candidate, Blaziken weas more popular and notable then him, Gardevoir has started to rise to become one of the most notable after being a Champion's main Pokemon, and hell, arguably Swampert is more popular then him, so he doesn't have that strong a standing in his own series.

The thing is, Grass starters have never been as popular overall as the Fire or Water ones. For whatever reason, they just aren't flocked to as much. But among those Grass starters? Sceptile either finishes first among them or sits a very close second to Serperior. Quite a bit of the support is just people who liked the 'mon all along.

Bkupa666 and a few others have said that we don't play as reps, we play as characters, and I feel it's that statement really plays into Sceptile. His support really hinged on the whole GWF trio thing and Gen 3 representation, and that bothers me a bit as that seemed to be the driving force for him rather then the character himself. Him being a Grass type as well as a Gen 3 rep isn't enough for me to consider him a strong character nor ignore his faults like his lack of general popularity in the Pokémon fandom. This is especially the case if that's going to be what pushes him ahead of others like Blaziken, who's much more popular, notable, and a "Gen 3 rep," and yet is more ignored just because he doesn't have the right typing. So while he is a decent character in his own right, I don't like the idea of having him playable just so he can be a "rep."

Throwing out the "reps" argument actually helps Sceptile more than any damage it causes. I feel like the people who are only in it for a starter trio are misinformed. The window of relevance ORAS provides used to matter before the Smash Ballot became a thing, but now relevance can be, well, irrelevant if enough support is there. And as mentioned above, the popularity is there (in fact, I think overall the Hoenn starters are the most popular of any starter trio). But where the other starters could run into problems (Swampert has hardly any support in addition to being stuck in Greninja's shadow, and not only does Blaziken have to deal with Charizard, Captain Falcon, and to an extent Mario mixing fire with direct physical combat, Blaziken is already a stage element), Sceptile has little competition for its thematic niche.

So while completing the starter trio isn't a very valid argument, being the most supported Grass type when the current roster has no one with plant-based powers is a very valid argument.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Sceptile: 10%
This is pretty high for a Pokémon, fyi.

ORAS has been released a while ago and guess what?
Blaziken and Swampert are still better choices if we're not ruling them out due to "muh alriddy have startuhs"

Even more Rants edit:
Blaziken is way more popular and, if you wanna play the Mega Evolution card, had a ME before Sceptile and basically everybody.

Torchic was also a special event thingy, not whatever the first evo is from Sceptile.

Admit it, Sceptile's support only started going because of the FWG circle, if Chestnaught would be in instead of Greno, we would've been rallying for Swampert.

He's not even the most popular grass starter, just the most fighter-like from the options. (Read as: Having less than three legs)

HE HAS COMPETITION IN HIS OWN LEAGUE (G3 STARTERS AND GRASS STARTER)

Yes, he has moveset potential, but the fact that three people made different movesets for Pidgey (in my thread hahaha look it up) makes the argument pretty moot.

Sceptile would probably be another fast, bipedal lightweight. Thinking in archetypes, anti-air Ivysaur was more unique.

More burns cuz you weak to that.
Greninja has the ninja thing, Sceptile has buncha grass things thrown together in a fast and bipedal lightning bruiser.

Unique? I think not.

ALL POKEMON HAVE MOVESET POTENTIAL, NOT JUST SCEPTILE
WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER POKÉMON, SCEPTILE ACTUALLY HAS A VERY BLAND DESIGN AND NO CLEAR ARCHETYPE TO LEAN ON ASIDE FROM HIS "ROOTS OH BOY THERES DE PUN" LIKE GRENINJA HAS AS NINJA.

I give that he is a grass starter that's popular, but to call that a enormous feat or to call him a shoo-in because of that...

Hey look even more:
He's only a shoe-in starter if we only count Grass-starters, only take their fully evolved versions and pick the ones that are "obvious" picks.

THE QUOTUM OF "BEING A POPULAR FULLY EVOLVED GRASS STARTER" ISN'T A BOON FOR HIS INCLUSION AND HONESTLY A BIT

Isaac, Daisy, Ivysaur and every other Grass Poké can also cover the plants/flower thing pretty well and Sceptile's main schtick is making blades from sharp leaves.

Honestly, I don't think that's very unique, at least Greninja had the whole ninja-thing for him.

Sceptile fan: Woyoyo grass.
Me: yay blade uniqueness scale tipping

SCEPTILE HAS NO MONOPOLY ON PLANTS AND ACTUALLY IS PRETTY BAD AT IT.

Sceptile is super important cuz he has Mega Evolution, but the fact is Pidgeot has one too.
Pretty every Gen 1 Pokémon has a Mega Evolution, it's not exactly a feat.

YOU GET A MEGA EVOLUTION AND YOU AND YOU AND EVERYBODY HAS A MEGA EVOLUTION.

Sceptile is probably one of the most requested Pokémon, but Sakurai doesn't think in reps.
He wants to please the fans with characters and not with a mildly requested one because he needed another Pokémon.
Right back at ya

BEING THE MOST REQUESTED POKE DOESN'T HELP MUCH WHEN THE REQUEST ITSELF IS ONLY MILD.

I do give that reps do not matter and that Sceptile isn't impossible because of Mewtwo.
Each there own merits, but I question Sceptile's

You could say this rating was pretty Sceptic.

Want:
0%
Putting in Sceptile still feels like shoehorning a grass starter into the game for the sake of a grass starter in the game.

Won de Round Rediction: 21%

Magolor x5

PIDGEY OUT

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Chance: 15%
Want: 60%

Wonder Red prediction: 28%

Nominations: DLC Alt Character Costumes 5x

 

[Moydow]

Sceptile
Chance: 15%
I don't see any more Pokémon as likely - not because of how many there are now, but because there are so many not in Smash, that the support for Pokémon is going to be spread thin across the several more popular ones.

Want: 35%
Sceptile is alright, but wouldn't be my preferred choice from Gen 3.

Wonder Red prediction: 17.25%

Nominate: Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Sceptile
Chance: 5%
I don't entirely think that Mewtwo decimated every Pokemon's chances, but I think that every Pokemon has some pretty mediocre chances, Sceptile included.
Sceptile isn't highly requested, the requests are only mild. The majority of them mention to complete the Grass-Water-Fire trio and to give Gen III representation, but I don't think this reasoning should put Sceptile over other candidates.
Honestly, I think that Blaziken has a slightly higher chance than Sceptile. Blaziken might not be the most unique fighter, but Blaziken is arguably the most popular and promoted Pokemon in Gen III; it even got a Mega Evolution in X and Y before Sceptile and Swampert did in ORAS.

Want: 25%
I am interested in his uniqueness. However, I don't have a connection with Sceptile. Whenever I play Emerald, I am going to choose Blaziken. So, I am not really supporting his inclusion. Even then, I don't want Blaziken as much either.

Wonder Red Prediction: 9.37%
I think the sales of the game will leave people skeptic.

Nominations: DLC Costumes for Characters 5x

 

[A Distant Demon]

Awww yeah wonder red.

But first sceptile
chance 10% most likely neecomer but thats about it. Not severely popular and outshined by squirtle and ivysaur. Also the 3 type tule is entirely made up and i have no idea why it was so popular when it obviously meant nothing

Want 20% hoenn was my first pokemon gen. I like the guy. It does annoy me that a large reason for his support was repping though. . .


Prediction 22%


Noms
2 wonder. . . Oh
2 viridi
2 ridley
1 viewtiful joe

 

[FalKoopa]

SCEPTILE:
CHANCE: 5%
WANT: 35%

I don't really think he has a good chance - Blaziken got a Mega Evo before him, and although ORAS is new and shiny, it hasn't really created a huge surge. Ivysaur also exists as a Grass starter option, who would be quicker and easier to make.

Well, Hoenn (Emerald, specifically) was my first Pokémon game, and Treeko was my starter of choice, so I do have a soft spot for him, but I'd take Gardevoir or Flygon over him any day, honestly.

WONDER RED PREDICTION: 10.1%

NOMINATIONS: IVYSAUR × 5

 

[4theRECORD]

Sceptile (Pokemon)

Chance:5%
I really don't understand why people give this guy such big chances. Yes he's a grass type which would complete the starters, and he's from Hoenn which has actually not been represented yet, and he has a decent amount of support and popularity.

But is that enough to get him in Smash? I personally don't think so. ORAS will quickly fade in to the past with the Pokemon Z\X2Y2 around the corner, and Sceptile honestly isn't at Charizard levels of popularity. (Of course Greninja isn't either, but he had good timing and new-gen representation on his side as well) I say wait for a grass starter till next Smash, when Gen VII will be out and we could then decide if Sceptile is still popular enough.

Want:10%
Meh. I don't hate him but I'd rather have Grovyle. Grovyle could give a nod of refrence to the Mystery Dungeon games, and Grovyle just has more nostalgia with me. Oh, the memories of me and my Marshtomp being crippled by May's Grovyle beneath Cycling Road...I need to get Alpha Sapphire.

Wonder Red:15%
Eh...All I know for sure is that I need to play this game quick. I have it in my possession...

Ray (Custom Robo) x5
almost there...

 

[WertQuadNine]

Chance: 10%
Already have 1 PokeDLC, but he probably has a higher chance than all other pkmn
Want: 95%
REALLY love Sceptile and I think he'd be amazing in the game. Only reason it's not 100 is because it's another pkmn

 

[sogeki]

Hey guys, if you have never heard of the wonderful 101, look up some videos on youtube about it. That's how I got into his game.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Sceptile

Chances: 18%

Sorry, chances are not too great for my favorite Grass Type starter ever. At this rate, I think Pokémon likely won't get any new characters untill the next game, where he might very well be added in if his popularity persists. But so far? I doubt they'd include any other Pokémon outside of maybe Pichu, because he's a Melee veteran.

Want: 75%

As I said before, he's easily my most favorite Grass Type starter Pokémon. I could envision an awesome moveset for him, being based a bit of Ivysaur but way faster. It's a shame it probably won't happen, but I'll live with it.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Sceptile's Chances: 10%

It doesn't exactly look so hot for Sceptile. I would say another Pokemon character isn't out of the question, even with Mewtwo as DLC, we know additional Pokemon will sell. But It just has so many other characters from its own series it has to compete against. Sure, it's a starter and a type currently not in the game, but that really means nothing in the grand scheme of things. For starters, it has fellow grass starter, and veteran, Ivysaur to deal with, which has the advantage of already having assets exist and fan appreciation for being a vet. Even in its own game, Sceptile has to deal with the more popular Blaziken and Mudkip/Swampert. And that's not even counting non-starters from the entire series that are both more popular, marketable and unique. Sceptile isn't a bad Pokemon, but it is a rather forgettable one with only the "reps" argument going for it.

Sceptile's Want: 7%
Another Pokemon character? Yawn. We have six Pokemon characters, that's really enough. Reps may not matter, but variety does very much so to me. Adding in any more characters from a series with more than four just bores me; let's see some new worlds instead. At least it isn't a clone ore Gen 1, so that's why I'm being generous with my percent for this one.


-----
Wonder Red's Chances: 15%

-----
Nominate:
Lip x2
Simon Belmont x2
Chibi Robo x1

 

[JBRPG]

I thought the Sceptile bandwagon had stopped months ago and that he would get mostly <10% chances ratings. How god I was wrong...

Sceptile chances: 0.05%
The speculation about Sceptile becoming a playable character in Smash stands on only one thing, "Have a Grass starter", alongside a few other things like "Represent Hoenn", which are all weak reasons to include him. The starter triangle mattered in Brawl because 1) they were all from the same generation and 2) they were tied to the Pokémon trainer, thus giving added value to this triangle. But considering character switching is no longer a thing, and the type effectiveness mechanic was removed, and Charizard and Greninja weren't chosen for their typing anyway, the starter triangle becomes fully disposable in Smash 4 and a poor reason to include Sceptile.

That said, Greninja was added due to arbitrary reasons as well (mostly for the sake of having a playable representative of the most recent generation), so Sceptile could happen as well, and I give him a chances score slightly higher than a flat zero if only for the "Anything can happen" clause.

Sceptile want: 0%
Warning: rant incoming. Pokémon Ruby was the first Pokémon game I ever owned, and I loved it. I played through it multiple times and discovered almost all gen 3 Pokémon without any other source like the internet or the Pokémon anime (which I didn't really care for at the time). I used all three starters in different playthrough and I loved them. And you know what? Sceptile was my first level 100 Pokémon ever.

That said, that doesn't mean I think he deserves to be in Smash Bros. His strongest merit is generally said to be his Grass typing to complete the starter trio, but I don't see any real value in this argument. Charizard is playable because he's a veteran with huge star power by himself, and Greninja was chosen because... well, for the sake of it to be honest >_> but neither of them were chosen because of their typing and I see no need to complete the trio. I was so tired to hear everywhere that we needed a Grass starter to complete the trio during the months following Greninja's reveal, an annoying bandwagon which became even worse with the reveal of Pokémon ORAS and Mega Sceptile and turned me off from what is one of my favourite Pokémon of my childhood.

Not to mention ORAS are quite often mentioned as a reason to include Sceptile as a playable character in Smash... which is also an argument that annoys me a lot. I admit recent relevance often helps characters to make in Smash, but that's because good characters ideas from the past become more and more sparse after each Smash installment and not for the sake of recency, and I hate the idea of characters getting in for the sake of getting a character from the most recent installment of a series without a proof that this character stands out as a choice for Smash or can most likely stand the test of time as a flagship character from his or her series in the future. For this reason I'm still not keen about having Greninja in the playable roster because he was mostly added for the sake of having a representative for gen 6, which was something actually confirmed by Sakurai himself.

Adding a questionable character choice for the sake of completing a very disposable trio especially when one of these is another questionable character choice who actually made into Smash for completely different reasons would be an absolutely terrible roster decision imo, and I absolutely don't see Sceptile as a character worthy of being in a massive Nintendo All-Star crossover as a playable character. I don't care if there's moveset potential or anything, I just don't see what makes him more standing-out and deserving than a lot of other Pokémon, including but not limited to Venusaur, Snorlax, Blaziken, Gardevoir, Metagross, Gengar, Volcarona, Abomasnow, Eevee, Aegislash, Mawile, Keldeo, or Magikarp... speaking of which, I'd love to play as Nintendo's flagship joke character in Smash, much more than Sceptile who would just feel like a random choice to me.

Wonder Red prediction: 11.12%
His game wasn't much of a success, so I'm not expecting high scores.

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

I am also in the similar position but I have almost no real emphathy towards the particular pokemon.

Chance = 1%
Want = 1%

Nomination: Serperior x 5

However, if we have a pokemon that is a grass type, it has to stand out between the others in physical appearance and potential moveset. I seem to favor Serperior because there has yet to be a fighter that explores body design of a serpent.

 

[Arcanir]

The thing is, Grass starters have never been as popular overall as the Fire or Water ones. For whatever reason, they just aren't flocked to as much. But among those Grass starters? Sceptile either finishes first among them or sits a very close second to Serperior. Quite a bit of the support is just people who liked the 'mon all along.

The Snivy line actually is arguably the most popular of the Unova starters, though I say arguably because the Oshawott line can make a case for itself. Either way, Sceptile is either second or third in terms of popularity as while it is decently popular on its own, Venusaur outdoes it in both popularity and notability due to being from Kanto, thus meaning that more are familiar with it and like it as a result.

Throwing out the "reps" argument actually helps Sceptile more than any damage it causes. I feel like the people who are only in it for a starter trio are misinformed. The window of relevance ORAS provides used to matter before the Smash Ballot became a thing, but now relevance can be, well, irrelevant if enough support is there.

Potentially yes, relevance can be ignored if the character is popular enough, I just doubt that Sceptile has that popularity. He still only has mild support compared to the majority of the characters even when you take out the ones that are impossible. So arguably he stands more of a chance to be overlooked because he's not leaving that big of an impression coupled with his other issues.

Also, while they are popular overall, there's no way they beat out the Kanto bunch in either popularity or notability. You could also make a case for the Johto ones since they were also present when Pokemon was at its peak, though that one is much more debatable.

But where the other starters could run into problems (Swampert has hardly any support in addition to being stuck in Greninja's shadow, and not only does Blaziken have to deal with Charizard, Captain Falcon, and to an extent Mario mixing fire with direct physical combat, Blaziken is already a stage element), Sceptile has little competition for its thematic niche.

I'll give you Swampert (whose lack of support is again owed to not having the right typing), but I don't agree with your points on Blaziken at all. Outside of both having Flamethrower, there's nothing that Charizard can do that Blaziken can with his current moveset, one's a dragon and the other's a kickboxing chicken and saying that one means the other is redundant is like saying Mega Man is redundant with Samus just because both are futuristic fighters with charge shots. Same with Mario as the only similarities is that they have fire attacks. I'll concede that Captain Falcon is closer in similarities, but even then there are still things that both do that the other does not that can easily separate them out such as Blaziken's much bigger focus on kickboxing vs. Falcon's emphasis on fist fighting. Just because a character looks like they can be similar doesn't mean they're doomed to be similar, if the options exist (and they definitely do for Blaziken), then you can easily separate them out.

Also, you're overplaying Blaziken's role as a stage element. The thing is that Blaziken does nothing in his appearance as a background character, he just stands there and looks pretty for the camera. So he has just as much of an effect on the stage as Toon Link is when he appears on Spirit Tracks, meaning that it's theoretically possible to use him for DLC over someone like the Flying Men.

Now granted, I don't think Blaziken is that likely of a character himself, but I also don't think your reasons are why he shouldn't be considered over Sceptile.

So while completing the starter trio isn't a very valid argument, being the most supported Grass type when the current roster has no one with plant-based powers is a very valid argument.

Villager has a few plant related attacks and Olimar's entire moveset is based around using plant-life to attack. Even ignoring that, Ivysaur also did the same thing in Brawl and as a veteran brings more to the table due to that and her previous moveset. So him having plant-based powers doesn't really sell him to me, it just's something about him that can be used for a moveset.

 

[Rockaphin]

Sceptile:

Chance: 20%

Wasn't extremely likely before DLC and now I find him even less likely. The only thing I could see going for him is the fact that Gen III doesn't have a Pokémon character and that he'd be the only Grass Type. But even then, that's not really saying much.
Need mah Ivysaur back. Sakurai plz.

Want: 10%

Eh, for reasons stated above. And I prefer all the other stages, especially Grovyle.

Nominations:
Paper Mario x3
Ken Alt x2

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Sceptile - 15%

He has moveset potential, and he does have considerably higher support than most Pokemon....but when you compare the amount of support he has to many other candidates (more than just Pokemon, mind you), it doesn't measure up to it.

If the development team hasn't already taken notice of him, perhaps this support Sceptile has will be just enough to get the team to take notice and consideration of him. There are a lot of other characters whom I feel will be a similar level on the ballot as him, and I don't think there's a good chance for any of them to get any farther than that.

I've never much cared for or really believed in the idea of there being three different fully-evolved starters to represent fire/water/grass, but I suppose it might help Sceptile out slightly, and if anything perhaps more than other Pokemon, at least. In the long run though I doubt that factor will have much of an effect on the development team whether or not they consider Sceptile.

Want - 65%

While he's far from being high up on my list I certainly wouldn't mind him, but when it comes to DLC Pokemon, we've got Mewtwo already, so next in line for me is Ivysaur, followed by Squirtle.

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[Geno Boost]

sceptile chances %4
grovyle from PMD is more important in pokemon history than him plus grovyle have a backstory and was one of the main characters in 3 games and he got his own anime episonde and manga also PMD doesnt have a character in SSB seires yet so it will be way better to have him instead of sceptile. sceptile has done nothing special in pokemon history he just got mega evolve but that wont help him to be in smash at all not even hoenn remake plus we already got a pokemon DLC so its very unlucky

want %0
there is nothing special about this random pokemon. i prefer grovyle from PMD or somone more important in pokemon history or getting back

 

[Delzethin]

Either way, Sceptile is either second or third in terms of popularity as while it is decently popular on its own, Venusaur outdoes it in both popularity and notability due to being from Kanto, thus meaning that more are familiar with it and like it as a result.

Also, while they are popular overall, there's no way they beat out the Kanto bunch in either popularity or notability. You could also make a case for the Johto ones since they were also present when Pokemon was at its peak, though that one is much more debatable.

Have you seen the starter popularity polls around the internet? More often than not Venusaur...doesn't rank all that high. It's generally a mix of Sceptile and Serperior at 1-2. It seems most of the ones who played the Gen 1 games as kids and lost interest later went with Charmander or Squirtle because they looked cooler.

And notability is subjective. I don't see why older characters should get priority solely because of seniority, and from what we've seen from the Smash developers, they don't think so either. And while you could argue Pokémon was at its mainstream peak around 2000, the fanbase is bigger now than ever.

I'll give you Swampert (whose lack of support is again owed to not having the right typing), but I don't agree with your points on Blaziken at all. Outside of both having Flamethrower, there's nothing that Charizard can do that Blaziken can with his current moveset, one's a dragon and the other's a kickboxing chicken and saying that one means the other is redundant is like saying Mega Man is redundant with Samus just because both are futuristic fighters with charge shots. Same with Mario as the only similarities is that they have fire attacks. I'll concede that Captain Falcon is closer in similarities, but even then there are still things that both do that the other does not that can easily separate them out such as Blaziken's much bigger focus on kickboxing vs. Falcon's emphasis on fist fighting. Just because a character looks like they can be similar doesn't mean they're doomed to be similar, if the options exist (and they definitely do for Blaziken), then you can easily separate them out.

You make some valid points. I take it you're a Blaziken supporter?

Character selection involves a delicate balance. You want to find characters at least decently well known, who have enough moveset potential to work with (the higher the better, of course) and who first and foremost will stand out on an ever-growing roster. The more means they have to stand out, the better. While Blaziken could feel a little different from Falcon and different enough from Charizard's tail- and head-heavy moveset, being yet another physical-based fire user puts a damper on that uniqueness.

Villager has a few plant related attacks and Olimar's entire moveset is based around using plant-life to attack. Even ignoring that, Ivysaur also did the same thing in Brawl and as a veteran brings more to the table due to that and her previous moveset. So him having plant-based powers doesn't really sell him to me, it just's something about him that can be used for a moveset.

Yet Olimar's Pikmin have their own elements and Villager uses a tree and potted plant basically as ranged bludgeoning tools. Nature as an element still isn't present, meaning a character that uses it primarily would already be super-unique. And as said before, I'm not buying the idea that Ivysaur gets priority solely for being a veteran. Especially not when Sceptile is just as unique and--so far--has significantly more support.

 

[AreJay25]

Sceptile
Chance: 10%
I don't really see any reason for him to be considered. "Completing the fire/water/grass triangle" isn't exactly enough to get him in. Pokemon is already pretty packed as is in terms of characters anyways, I think it would be low priority for DLC after Mewtwo.

Want: 50%
I mean... he'd be cool. I have some pretty fond memories of Gen 3 and ORAS only reconfirmed that. The Treecko line also happens to be my favorite starter in that gen... buuuuuut there are other Pokemon I'd pick.

Prediction: Wonder Red
Chance: 40%
There's some demand for him, but I think a certain few factors are gonna keep him out.

 

[Scamper52596]

Sceptile
Chance: 7%
I'm not all that confident that we're going to be seeing two DLC characters for one franchise; although, if we were to see that happen Pokemon does have a high chance of getting that second DLC representative. Sceptile seems to be a popular choice, but they might just bring back Ivysaur instead. Could go either way. I'll give the grass starter Pokemon 7%.
Anything could happen...

Want: 2.7%
Can't say I really care all too much to be honest.

Prediction - Wonder Red: 16.2%

Nominations:
x3 Toon Zelda
x2 Tetra