Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

BluePikmin11

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This is going to be short for the most part.

Sceptile Chance:
7.5%
Certainly can get a chance in getting playable this time with the ballot and does have ORAS in his favor, though I don't think this would be the Pokemon Sakurai would choose for DLC. There are plenty of more interesting unique candidates Sakurai can use before adding Sceptile for the sake of aligning the grass, water, and, fire triangle. (Hawlucha and Blaziken for example) There's not much he can do that's different from Ivysaur other than using his arm blades for melee combat.

He has an ok chance for the most part, but I don't think Sakurai will choose him as the DLC Pokemon candidate, especially with the inevitable X2/Y2 coming up.

Sceptile Want:
3% Not really interested at all. I prefer Swampert by a mile if came to a Generation 3 starter.
Wonder Red Prediction:
34.57% This rating will probably be high, given his popularity.

Nominations:
x5 Young Link
 
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I just don't see what makes him more standing-out and deserving than a lot of other Pokémon, including but not limited to Venusaur, Snorlax, Blaziken, Gardevoir, Metagross, Gengar, Volcarona, Abomasnow, Eevee, Aegislash, Mawile, Keldeo, or Magikarp... speaking of which, I'd love to play as Nintendo's flagship joke character in Smash, much more than Sceptile who would just feel like a random choice to me.
Ya know, what happens when Goldeen comes out of the Pokeball? It uses splash. Ever since Goldeen's first appearance as a Pokeball Pokemon, they've never switched to Magikarp.

Why you may ask?

Magikarp DLC fighter confirmed!

Up Special: Bounce
Side Special: Tackle
Down Special: Splash
B Special: Flail

Final Smash: Honestly this post was just in good humor, do I really have to continue it?
 

Substitution

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Sceptile

Chance: 10%
The only fighting game I see him in any time soon is Pokken.

Want: 50%
I guess it'd be nice to have a Hoenn rep, but honestly we already have enough reps.

Predictions:
Wonder Red: >50%.

Nomination: Waddle Dee (not Bandanna Dee, just Waddle Dee) x5
 

Bill Nye

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Sceptile
Chance: 4%
With ORAS having released months ago, his relevance is waning. His franchise already has many reps, and still has many competitors.

Want: 100%
With the addition of Sceptile, my three favorite starters would be playable. As a pokemon fan, it does feel a little weird to have two starters.

Nominations: Agnes Oblige x 2
Ridley x 3
 

Serell

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Alright, Sceptile!

Chance: 11%. Sceptiles got everything going for him. He completes the starter trio, being a grass starter, and he is from a different generation from Charizard and Greninja. He's cool, got potential for a moveset, and anything pokemon will be popular. The only problem is... we already have a tad too many pokemon reps. That, and I believe (my personal speculation) Sakurai is not going to want one series getting more than one rep via dlc, and pokemon already got Mewtwo.

Want: 40%. He's cool and all, but there's many others I really want to see, which brings me to my noms...

Nominations: Ray (Custom Robo) x10!!
Woot woot! 5 additional noms! Go, Ray, get on up there!

EDIT: Woops, forgot my prediction for wonder red. hmm... 32.3%?
 
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sogeki

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Before #20, we should do daisy and custom robo, and here is why.
A couple days ago, I asked the owner of this thread if I could make a pie chart of the results, for each five percent a character got, they would get one point. Since we only have two entries left, I feel like we should do two extremely recommended characters, Ray MK, and then daisy.
 
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Before #20, we should do daisy and custom robo, and here is why.
A couple days ago, I asked the owner of this thread if I could make a pie chart of the results, for each five percent a character got, they would get one point. Since we only have two entries left, I feel like we should do two extremely recommended characters, Ray MK, and then daisy.
if they are so popular how do they have so few nominations :p

seriously though ray actually isnt that popular. daisy is kind of middle of the road with a large hatebase.
 
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Ah, good ol' Sceptile
Chance: 21%
I feel like ORAS may have GROWN it's chances a bit.
Pros:
+Starter
+No grass types in Smash 4
+relatively popular
+from an unrepresented gen
Cons:
-Mewtwo
-A lot of others to choose from
-Not popular enough
There's a chance, but it might not be a big enough chance for it to GRASSp a spot on the roster

Want: 90%
Sceptile is by far my favorite grass type starter. I don't feel like typing more.

Wonder Red Predictions: 37.101%

Nominations:
9-Volt x5
 

Martingale

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Oh no it's really late and I forgot to do my daily vote. Ah, this will be quick.

A Reptile Dysfunction: Sceptile Chances
Chance: 23%

-Pretty popular due to ORAS, has a new mega for final smash and well requested as the missing grass starter from lineup
-diverse moveset possible: acrobatics, leaf storm, leaf blade, brick break etc so fun stuff could be done there
-game freak and Nintendo are bros so no complaints there
-but pokemon saturation is huge now and I don't think we'll see Sceptile this time around
-plus hoenn hype has already kinda died sadly, people already baying for X2Y2/Z so this reptile might be forgotten
-#keepbiggreenreptilesoutofsmash2015
-oh
-sorry

Want: 36%
-far from my first choice of pokemon addition
-grovyle is cooler though, especially in those mystery dungeon games. He had hella personality not like this guy
-more bipedal playables would be cool, bring back ivysaur
-but man I want to play Magikarp instead, I'm genuinely doing a write up for a Magikarp support thread
-but overall yeah y'know okay I wouldn't mind this if he got cool alternate colours like Charizard

Wonder Red Prediction: 27.3145%
I tried to contact the director of Wonderful 101 for input on this, but he's already blocked me on Twitter because I said Smash once. Legends say he scrolls through the "smash" search on Twitter just to find people he hasn't blocked yet.

Five Professor Layton votes, s'il vous plaisent
 

Sarki Soliloquy

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Character Chance Ratings

1: Wolf - 97.5%
2: Rayman - 60%
3: Snake - 55%
4: Inkling - 50%
5: Sceptile - 45%
5: Krystal - 45%
6: Dixie Kong - 43%
7: Impa - 40.5%
8: Ice Climbers - 30%
9: Captain Toad - 30%
10: Quote - 21.5%
11: Shantae - 20.5%
12: Shovel Knight - 20%

Character Want Ratings

1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Sceptile - 90.5%
3: Shantae - 87%
4: Snake - 85%
4: Impa - 85%
5: Ice Climbers - 80%

6: Inkling - 30%
7: Rayman - 25%
8: Quote - 23%

9: Krystal - 20%
9: Dixie Kong - 20%
10: Captain Toad: 5.5%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac

Abtsains (Indifference)

n/A

RATINGS

Sceptile

Chance - 45%: Out of all remaining Pokémon characters, Sceptile has the biggest shot out of anything else. This largely plays into the absence of the Starter Type Trio (Grass-Fire-Water) from Brawl, the recency of OR/AS, notability outside of the main games, such as in the anime, and of course his "fighter feel" that feels more realized compared to the other final Grass starters across 6 gens. Lesser credence goes to the gen representation balance for the final evolution Pokémon x3 (Charizard = Gen 1, Sceptile = Gen 3, Greninja = Gen 6).

I've seen Sceptile place an average of Top 10-20 in prelims, so its a character who unfortunately remains on the fringe of even semi-popular characters. Its support reached its zenith a little while after Greninja was confirmed and into OR/AS's release. It does delight me to see that he still has managed to pop around here and there even after this game's roster was well-decided.

Many people are quick to state how Mewtwo nullifies Sceptile's chances due to assuming "rep theory" or "slots" applies to Sakurai and the developers. Mario remains to have the largest playable roster at 7 characters. Mewtwo brought the previously-equalized Pokémon series to border this count at 6 characters, so all we need is an additional Pokémon to bring Nintendo's second largest franchise back to prominence. This could be construed to look like Mewtwo is the last Pokémon character we're getting. There's also Squirtle and Ivysaur hanging in the balance, but they seem just as unlikely as Pichu at this point if we didn't get them in the full game when Charizard took priority.

There are no rules against getting multiple DLC characters from the same franchise, as unlikely and redundant as it would seem. There's also no rule against character limits per franchise, because Mario already grew like kudzu. It's really just a question of whether any of these will happen or not. So time will tell.

Moveset wise, Sceptile already offers a versatile foil to the Grass type lineup. It main means of attacks are this wrist-spine tonfa thingies and claws. They could include an Overgrowth mechanic where the length of the spines extend depending on percent or Photosynthesis. Cut, Leaf Blade and X-Scissors seem the most obvious for physical attacks. Razor Leaf, Magic Leaf, Solar Beam, Energy Ball, and Grass Knot are prime examples of Grass attacks. For recovery and mobility, it could use Acrobatics, Aerial Ace, and have a wall-climb (would work like a lateral crawl) and wall-cling. His Final Smash would obviously transform it into Mega Sceptile, with Frenzy Plant being a major attack. The Christmas-tree rocket would make a neat spike and heavy ranged projectile too. Can't forget that. Also, you'd be playing as a bipedal dino gecko with sword leaves on his arms! Does that not satisfy your badass quoteint?

Want - 90.5%: Sceptile was actually one of the characters I threw my support behind pre-release. Its priority wilted down after the leak showed us how the final roster would be, and I'm hesitant to throw a vote out for it because Mewtwo really feels like all we need rather than satisfying an scraped trio.

But if it did get in, I would be excited to play as it nonetheless. It remains as my favorite Grass final starter design and it sure would be fun to play with a rebranded Grass-type moveset. Why does Grass always get the short end of the stick?


PREDICTION

Wonder Red

Chance - 60.55%
Want - 85.67%

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x3
Galacta Knight x2
 
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Sid-cada

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Sceptile

Chance - 9.75% - Just shy of ten percent. To be certain, there are more random Pokemon out their, but I just don't see him as likely. Not only does Pokemon already have a DLC character, which makes it harder to get in, there already are a number of other vets who want to get in. While I don't view him as impossible, there are certainly more likely candidates out there.

Want - 60% - While it may not matter decision wise, I still think it's a good idea to have the Stater Trio in. He could be cool, but to be honest there are plenty of characters I want more.


Wonder Red Prediction - 2.73% - 101/100=1.01 1.01^101=2.73...

Heh, don't know, so might as well have fun with the numbers, right?

Nominations
New Guidance Conversations X3
Anna (FE) X2
 

Arcanir

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Have you seen the starter popularity polls around the internet? More often than not Venusaur...doesn't rank all that high. It's generally a mix of Sceptile and Serperior at 1-2. It seems most of the ones who played the Gen 1 games as kids and lost interest later went with Charmander or Squirtle because they looked cooler.
I have, and that's why I think the Bulbasaur line is more popular. On the IGN poll, Venusaur scored at #15 while Sceptile was at #66 and Serperior #74. Additionally, Bulbasaur did better then both as well, scoring at #52. I will admit though that this is a bit outdated now since a new generation has come and ORAS has put Gen 3 back in the spotlight, but unfortunately it's the only one that rates all Pokemon on an (mostly) even playing field that I can find and has a large sample size (Dorkly excluded any Pokemon that weren't in the top 15 in their respective generations, making it hard to see how Venusaur stacked up since it barely missed it at #16).

Also, I will add that the Bulbasaur line is actually the second most popular Kanto starter in Japan behind Charmander, so it's not really unliked globally.

And notability is subjective. I don't see why older characters should get priority solely because of seniority, and from what we've seen from the Smash developers, they don't think so either. And while you could argue Pokémon was at its mainstream peak around 2000, the fanbase is bigger now than ever.
I never said that older characters should have priority, the point was that Venusaur has more popularity to it due to being a part of the much more well known and popular generation.

Anyway, I have to disagree, at least in the context of this. Lets be honest, as much as we may prefer the other generations, Kanto is always going to be the one that the most people remember and are familiar with, the one most people experience, and that's going to mean that the Kanto starters and their Pokemon are always going to be among the most well known in the franchise. Venusaur may be the least popular of the Kanto bunch (at least outside of Japan), but it's still one of the three starters of that generation and one of the Pokemon people would've picked to start off their journey. Due to that, it's going to have a lot of popularity to it even if it's not at the top of its group.

You make some valid points. I take it you're a Blaziken supporter?
Well, not really. I do think he'd be a fun character if he does make it in and along with Sceptile he's one of my go-to starters for traveling in Hoenn, but he's not exactly at the top of my most wanted list.

Character selection involves a delicate balance. You want to find characters at least decently well known, who have enough moveset potential to work with (the higher the better, of course) and who first and foremost will stand out on an ever-growing roster. The more means they have to stand out, the better. While Blaziken could feel a little different from Falcon and different enough from Charizard's tail- and head-heavy moveset, being yet another physical-based fire user puts a damper on that uniqueness.
I do see your point, I won't lie and say that Blaziken doesn't carry those similarities to other characters that Sceptile does not, but I do feel that Blaziken can still be a good character in his own right despite that. I feel the best example of this would be Greninja, he follows the same ninja motif that Sheik does and yet is one of the most popular new characters because of how much he brought to the table on his own alongside the similarities he had with Sheik.

So due to that, I don't think Blaziken would suffer too much from having similarities, I do think he has good points to him that would make him a worthwhile character.

Yet Olimar's Pikmin have their own elements and Villager uses a tree and potted plant basically as ranged bludgeoning tools. Nature as an element still isn't present, meaning a character that uses it primarily would already be super-unique. And as said before, I'm not buying the idea that Ivysaur gets priority solely for being a veteran. Especially not when Sceptile is just as unique and--so far--has significantly more support.
Fair enough on Olimar and Villager.

As for Ivysaur, my main point was that he also brings in the nature inspired moveset that you're talking about for Sceptile as well as his own tools. So because of that, there's not that much of a monopoly on that aspect as while both will operate differently, they do fall into the same category of having a nature inspired moveset that can be brought into the game.
 
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Pureownege75

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Sceptile
Chance: 5%
I know there is no "rules" when it comes to Smash DLC, but I just struggle to think that any series will get more than 1 character as DLC. We got Mewtwo likely due to immense fan demand, and I think that puts a huge block in Sceptile's way. People bring up he has tons of moveset potential, but that is pretty much nullified by the fact that almost every Pokemon under the sun has tons of moveset potential. The only thing I think he has going for him is ORAS, which have come and gone. By the time that the Ballot wraps up, Pokemon Z or whatever return to Kalos will likely (unfortunately) get announced, and Hoenn will go back to barely receiving any advertising, which kills him off. No. I don't believe that his status as a Grass Type helps him in any way. It's an arbitrary rule. The only reason Brawl had it, was because they were all part of the same character. There is no way Sakurai will look at the roster and think "This roster needs a grass type". It worked for Pokemon Trainer, because they are the three most important types and represent having a balanced team. But with three individual characters, the argument just doesn't work. He has support, yes, but like so many other characters that I've talked about, he WON'T get the support he needs to be chosen as the (or one of the) ballot character(s), because most Pokemon fans are content with Mewtwo.

Want: 1%
Hey, I love Pokemon. I love the Hoenn Starters (granted Sceptile is probably my least favorite of the 3, but I still love him). But honestly, when your biggest argument is "We need a grass type" you know you are reaching for reasons to include the guy. Frankly, although the disproportion of Gen 1 Pokemon to other Gens is a little annoying, I don't see the need for him, and am not interested at all in a new Pokemon rep. I feel like he's one of those characters that people want not because of the fact that they actually like HIM, but rather they just like him because he represent's something we don't have and is the only bet. I can think of many other characters that fill this role but will not state them because it'll probably make said character's supporters upset.

Wonder Red Prediction: 25%

Nominations:
RH Character x3
Themed Stage Packs x2
 
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Joined
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Messages
1,151
Sceptile

Chance: 2%

Want: 0%

Lets lay all the things out of the way first. We already have 6 pokemon reps. We just got a new pokemon rep. We have 3 cut veterans in the void at the moment. The only reason I see people picking Sceptile is because he "completes the trio." Which is a really stupid reason. One should never want a character just to fit in with other characters. Sceptile isn't very popular of a starter, in fact hes not even the most popular Gen 3 rep........Blaziken has Sceptile beat in popularity in just about all areas.....the only thing holding Blaziken back is the fact we already have a fire starter. Sceptile isn't even the most popular in his evolution chain....as Grovyle tends to be much more likable due to better design, and his role in MD and the anime. Again I can't see any reason to get on this character other than "MY OCD HURTS BECAUSE NO GRASS STARTERRR!!"

Sure Gen 3 just got a remake....but the timing was horrible. Greninja got in at the right time to tie in with XY....while ORAS was too distant to even get a tie in character. Now that ORAS has came and gone, theres no reason to go back to it in the future. Charizard isnt going anywhere, and its possible Greninja is going to return for Smash 5.....maybe then you will get your grass starter to tie in with Gen 7. On the brightside, at least Sceptile is a Nintendo character.

Wonder Red: 40%

Nominate: Chorus Kids x 5
 

ES. Dinah

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Sceptile

Chance: 10-20%

Sceptile is honestly overrated, imo. It is awesome that we would get another grass type in the roster but at the same time I feel that someone else should get the spot. My cousin is a huge fan of Sceptile so he would probably scold me for this post, haha. ORAS increased Sceptile's chances, but not by much. He is rendered moot by Mewtwo and Charizard/Greninja already. I always felt like Zoroark would get the spot over Greninja as well.

Want: 0%

Haha, I am not a fan of Sceptile, honestly. It is a very overrated pokemon but then again so is Mewtwo. The difference is that Mewtwo is badass.

Nominations: My favourite blue haired gynoid, KOS-MOS X5
 

ZecaOMestre

Smash Apprentice
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Jul 14, 2013
Messages
146
Sceptile
Chance: 16%
He's the most probable non-veteran Pokémon, seeing as how he is a Grass starter from the most recent games (ORAS) which just got a new Mega Evolution. Sadly, this doesn't mean much. We've alredy got a Pokémon DLC, and I only think we're getting other Pokémon if we have 10+ characters as DLC.

Want: 100%
Has been my favorite Pokémon for a while now

Wonder-Red Prediction: 42%

Nominations:
N x3
Concept: Story Mode x2
 
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Messages
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Sceptile
Chance: 15%
I don't think they'd consider having another Pokemon rep with 6 already in the game and they'll probably overlook the 3rd generation and choose another 6th gen. But there could be an argument that Pokemon could get 1 more rep since Mario has like over 6 and ORAS are the current titles out now too so who knows.

Want: 30%
Sceptile would make a really cool addition since there isn't a grass type and could replace Ivysaur. Its new mega evolution can easily be a final smash. Just don't really want any more Pokemon but I'd definitely go for Sceptile or Ivysaur over Pichu if they decide to bring it back for DLC no disrespect to Pichu fans (rooting for you guys if you want him back too).

Prediction
Wonder Red: 35%

Nominations:
Mach Rider x4
Roy x1
 

Delzethin

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I have, and that's why I think the Bulbasaur line is more popular. On the IGN poll, Venusaur scored at #15 while Sceptile was at #66 and Serperior #74. Additionally, Bulbasaur did better then both as well, scoring at #52. I will admit though that this is a bit outdated now since a new generation has come and ORAS has put Gen 3 back in the spotlight, but unfortunately it's the only one that rates all Pokemon on an (mostly) even playing field that I can find and has a large sample size (Dorkly excluded any Pokemon that weren't in the top 15 in their respective generations, making it hard to see how Venusaur stacked up since it barely missed it at #16).
"Mostly" is probably the key there. Putting every mon in the poll doesn't keep biases from within the community from showing up, and IGN's is known for being rather...nostalgia-heavy. They'd be more likely to vote up older mons solely because they're older and not because of merits that really matter, you know?

I never said that older characters should have priority, the point was that Venusaur has more popularity to it due to being a part of the much more well known and popular generation.

Anyway, I have to disagree, at least in the context of this. Lets be honest, as much as we may prefer the other generations, Kanto is always going to be the one that the most people remember and are familiar with, the one most people experience, and that's going to mean that the Kanto starters and their Pokemon are always going to be among the most well known in the franchise. Venusaur may be the least popular of the Kanto bunch (at least outside of Japan), but it's still one of the three starters of that generation and one of the Pokemon people would've picked to start off their journey. Due to that, it's going to have a lot of popularity to it even if it's not at the top of its group.
You have a point about the first two generations being the "popular" ones, but here's the thing...a lot of that popularity came from people who lost interest in the series. They have other interests they care more about, and so they won't be the ones voting for Pokémon characters in the ballot. Among the Pokémon fanbase itself--the ones actually voting for mons--Sceptile seems to be getting the most support from what I've observed.

I feel the best example of this would be Greninja, he follows the same ninja motif that Sheik does and yet is one of the most popular new characters because of how much he brought to the table on his own alongside the similarities he had with Sheik.
For what it's worth, Greninja also has the whole waterbending thing and no other water-users to feel similar to.

To each their own, I suppose.

As for Ivysaur, my main point was that he also brings in the nature inspired moveset that you're talking about for Sceptile as well as his own tools. So because of that, there's not that much of a monopoly on that aspect as while both will operate differently, they do fall into the same category of having a nature inspired moveset that can be brought into the game.
It's not a monopoly by any means...well, within the series itself; no other series really has a character that fits the affinity.

Ivysaur looks to be between a rock and a hard place, so to speak. The more nostalgic fans who are voting for Gen 1 mons are generally picking Squirtle since it was more popular when they played. Meanwhile, most of the fans who care about uniqueness or want a Grass type in seem to be going for Sceptile instead.

There is no way Sakurai will look at the roster and think "This roster needs a grass type".
That's not how it works, though. A more likely scenario would be the team going through the ballot results and going "Huh, Sceptile? We don't have a Grass type yet. What do you guys think?"

That's provided there was enough support, though, and that's still up in the air.


Oh, and one more thing. To those of you who imply Sceptile only has a following because of ORAS and saying it discredits the support there is? If you claim it doesn't count because something happened that stirred up a bandwagon...

...Then what does that mean about Rayman? Or Shantae? Or the Chorus Kids back last summer?
 

pandajedi

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Sceptile
Chances: 20%
Mewtwo may well hurt his chances, but I don't necessarily think so. I think more likely, every other popular newcomer will hurt his chances. Sceptile has stiff competition from K. Rool, Isaac, Shovel Knight, etc etc.
That being said, he's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Pokemon is popular, and Sceptile is prominent in the Pokemon series (a starter that just got a mega and was highly advertised with the latest game, and was huge in the anime which we know influences Sakurai). Sceptile also has lots of potential, it basically LOOKS like the type of character Sakurai would take a liking to and make a fighter. Plus, being grass type makes it unique in the roster, and gives it lots of potential in it's moveset with possible health regenerating or health leeching or status effects moves.
The symmetry of him completing a trio, him fitting in alongside Charizard and Greninja and him repping an un-repped generation of Pokemon- those facts don't matter. But... they sure would satisfy me for filling a pattern B)

Want: 100%
Sceptile is one of my favorite starters and I think is one of the most badass pokemon.
 

FooltheFlames

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Chance 16%
Only becuz of the recent Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire, and I guess people are rooting for a grass type to complete the "Elemental Starter Trio". We already got Pika, Puff, Char & now Mew2 repping Gen 1. Lucario for Gen 4, and Greninja for Gen 6. I'd say it'd only be fair for Gen 3 & Gen 5 to also be represented, But I feel like we have enough pokes for now and that the developers will be focusing on bringing DLC to rep other franchises to the table instead of yet another poke.
Another thing about Sceptile. Sceppy is the "speedster" of the R&S trio much like Greninja is in X&Y, so we would have to have another poke that acts like a Sheik for the transition to be faithful, and Greninja already has taken that place; but whos to say they cant get creative here?

Want 33%
I chose Sceptile as my starter and made her a mixed sweeper in the original R&S (have not played the new ORAS) so I have a bit of a nostalgia factor placed here.

Wonder Red prediction: 37%

Nominations:
Ashley x4
Ridley x1
 

A10theHero

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Sceptile
Chances:
20%

+ Unique with high moveset potential
~+ Some relevance because of ORAS (again, pointless positive)
+/- Somewhat popular
- People care about representation
- Support is not as strong as with other characters

Want:
99%
I know I said that all non-Spyro characters would get a flat 90%, but I have a soft-spot for Pokemon. :)

Prediction:
Wonder Red 12%

Nominations:
Spyro the Dragon [x5]
 
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BKupa666

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Toxic Tower
Chance - 5%
Is he getting votes at all beyond the muhrelevant kids? If Roy is any indication, "reps" isn't really an argument against him, but the fact that there are three veterans that Japan, if not the U.S., would want before him and WITH pre-existing assets kind of takes the wind out of his sails.

Want - 5%
Pass. Give other series some time in the sun.

Wonder Red Prediction - 20.5%

Nominate Chorus Men/Kids x5
 

Thereallucario

Smash Journeyman
Joined
May 27, 2014
Messages
248
Location
Sharpedo bluff; Treasure town
Sceptile

Chance: 14%
Not impossible, but definitely not high ether. I myself think that judging by the fact that there won't be too many dlc characters made (best guess being 5-9) the smash bro's team will shy away from doubling up on any series to increase uniqueness and keep the fans equally happy. Add that as well as the vast number of pokemon available and the lack of any real pull on this specific character to be in alone, and the odds cease to look favorably on him.

Want: 0%
I like him; he's my favorite 3rd gen starter, he would be unique, and most pokemon would be a good addition in smash imo. However this does NOT excuse the act that he would forever damn the chance of grovyle the thief making it into smash, which killed any love I had once had for him.
 

Roaring Salsa

A dragon never yields
Joined
Mar 7, 2015
Messages
2,049
Location
Courtroom No. 4
Sceptile

Chance: 20%
In any Pokemon game you can only have a party of six pokemon maximum.
Smash has Pikachu, Jigglypuff, Charizard, Lucario, Greninja and Mewtwo.
Bearing this aside, I don't think Sceptile will be a top priority since Mewtwo was just added a few weeks ago. Most likely we'll only get one character per franchise for dlc, so Pokemon has already complied with it.

Want: 25%
It would be higher if Jigglypuff wasn't in Smash (seriously, all the other ones are clearly iconic and still appear frequently in the games and anime; Greninja's future still remains to be seen though,) but as of now I feel Pokémon is perfectly represented in Smash.

Nominations:
Henry Fleming x3
Phoenix Wright x1
Elma x1
 
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SmashChu

Smash Hero
Joined
Jul 14, 2003
Messages
5,784
Location
Tampa FL
Sceptile is a good old 0/0

There really is no reason this characters should be included at all. it only came up because "Oh, we need a grass starter." Characters who are only asked for to fill a slot are bad choices and likely wont get in.
 

PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
1,179
Sceptile

Chance 6% All the good arguments for and against have been made. Decent (but recent) demand makes him the most likely Pokemon newcomer, but the chances are very tiny we would get one. He's hands-down the most popular Grass starter. If I had more time I would write something lengthy about him and how much I feel he deserves it, but deserving it doesn't necessarily make him more likely all obstacles considered.

Want 95% My favorite final starter evolution ever.

nominate Simon Belmont x5
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 24, 2001
Messages
1,750
Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
Sceptile

The way I see it, I don't expect another Pokemon DLC unless there's one that's massively popular or we get quite a large roster of DLC characters. Yes, Sakurai has said he wants to provide a lot of content. But Sakurai's statement has to be balanced against how many people are working on this, how fast can they generate the content? And what about other content like stages or costumes or custom moves? And hell, balance patches take effort too! Just because you know Sakurai wants to add a lot doesn't mean that you know how much he considers "a lot" or how much is possible for his team. I think it's safe to assume it means more than one or two characters beyond Lucas - but does it mean 5? 8? 10? Even higher? That answer depends all on how much time and effort goes into each character and how much time and effort they have available, so I'm going to stick with generally being more pessimistic than most on that number. And again, I assume that Roy and Ryu are quite likely taking up two of the spots, so that pushes other characters down the line.

So given that, I can see one more Pokemon DLC if we're getting a relatively larger number, and if that's the case, it seems Sceptile has a strong chance of being that character. On the other hand, we know that there are more Pokemon games coming. Their pace since 2008 has been one Pokemon main series game per year. So what's the next one? Perhaps Pokemon X & Y 2? For all we know, they will have another Greninja that they want to promote by the time any Pokemon DLC will be in development.

In other words, Sceptile would make sense if he were being released right now - with Pokemon ORAS as the game to promote. But does he make sense in 5 months? That's the absolute earliest I expect to see any Smash ballot character getting released. In 2016, there will probably be another Pokemon game out, or at least announced if they decide to slow the pace. I think generally Pokemon is one of the hardest to predict since it's very marketing-based and there are so many legitimate contenders if you want to go back to older Pokemon.

But it is true that Sceptile is one of the more popular choices from all the polling I've seen. But he's not popular enough that it makes sense for them to pick him over some other series that might get reps (DK, Star Fox and unrepped series/3rd parties, most prominently). All in all, he has a chance, but it's a bit dependent on the amount of DLC we're getting, I think, and also what GameFreak is doing over the next year, basically.

Sceptile chance: 5%
He's got the ballot going for him. But can the ballot overcome the power of Pokemon cash-cow juggernaut's marketing needs? If they want a different character to pimp a new Pokemon game or movie... GameFreak will probably get its way. And all this is assuming we'll even get more Pokemon DLC after Mewtwo.
Sceptile want: 15%
I don't really want another Pokemon, but a grass-type holds at least some interest. More than if people were proposing a Pokemon type already represented.

Wonder Red Prediction: 15%

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

Sceptile change: 50%
This is not biased and I plan to do use the same score for every pokemon.Because the only holding them back is sakurai and if he feels that Pokemon should be in smash.Sceptile is no expection
That makes no sense whatsoever.

There are not going to be 20 Pokemon DLC characters, or even 5 of them. All Pokemon cannot have a 50% chance, there are too many of them. Announcing your intention to rate all of them that high is equivalent to rating Master Chief or Batman as 99% sure to get in.
 
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Delzethin

Character Concept Creator
Joined
Mar 23, 2012
Messages
3,600
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St. Louis, MO
NNID
Delzethin
There really is no reason this characters should be included at all. it only came up because "Oh, we need a grass starter." Characters who are only asked for to fill a slot are bad choices and likely wont get in.
Wait a minute...how is that any different from everyone who rated Wolf high and gave "he needs to come back" as a reason?

Neither argument works, and more importantly, neither of them is the major argument for their respective characters' inclusion. Notice how everyone who's given Sceptile the highest chance ratings have appealed to uniqueness, just like so many of Wolf's high ratings suggested he was probably one of the last few left off the initial roster and how he has as much of an argument as Lucas?
 
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Joined
Mar 18, 2015
Messages
669
Location
Houston, Texas
Sceptile

Chance: 10%
I don't think were going to get another Pokemon as a DLC fighter. The reason why so many people want him is because of the whole fire, water, and grass triangle thing. The reason why I gave him 10 is because we never had a Gen 3 rep in Smash for Pokemon before, which would be nice to see.

Want: 20%
While I would like to see Sceptile I don't think he has much of a chance. The Pokemon roster is already way too big. I don't think we really need another one. The roster for Pokemon is the perfect team. 6 is the best number for this franchise, we don't need anymore.

Wonder Red Prediction: 10%

Nomination Lip x5
 
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Arcanir

An old friend evolved
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Getting geared up for the 20th
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Shoryu91
"Mostly" is probably the key there. Putting every mon in the poll doesn't keep biases from within the community from showing up, and IGN's is known for being rather...nostalgia-heavy. They'd be more likely to vote up older mons solely because they're older and not because of merits that really matter, you know?
You're not wrong, but the thing is all polls are going to be reflective of the community's bias and that's hard to weed out unless you either draw in a large crowd from other sites or have multiple polls held on different sites and communities (like PustdustIn's poll). For the former, to IGN's credit I do remember them advertising it on other sites so it wasn't completely skewered towards their community (though admittedly that doesn't negate the bias completely). The latter unfortunately we're very limited in that area as only IGN and Dorkly have done polls like that, both of which have their flaws, so we only have so much to work with. Hopefully we'll get another poll sometime soon to better assess the community;'s opinion as a whole, but until then we just have to work with what we have.

You have a point about the first two generations being the "popular" ones, but here's the thing...a lot of that popularity came from people who lost interest in the series. They have other interests they care more about, and so they won't be the ones voting for Pokémon characters in the ballot. Among the Pokémon fanbase itself--the ones actually voting for mons--Sceptile seems to be getting the most support from what I've observed.
To some extent yes you're right, but do remember that GF has pushed them even past their previous generation. XY in particular was heavy on the Kanto love, which included giving out the starters right near the beginning of the story. So even ignoring that particular group, there's still a lot of love and attention given to them from both the core fanbase and Game Freak that the other starters don't get. That doesn't necessarily translate to Smash support, but it does mean that the Kanto starters are probably still at the top in the Pokémon fanbase.

Ivysaur looks to be between a rock and a hard place, so to speak. The more nostalgic fans who are voting for Gen 1 mons are generally picking Squirtle since it was more popular when they played. Meanwhile, most of the fans who care about uniqueness or want a Grass type in seem to be going for Sceptile instead.
I guess, but while I won't say that Ivysaur is more supported then Sceptile, I still don't think she's completely screwed over. She does still have some love given to her and theoretically if Sakurai decides to give the veterans more love, she (and Squirtle) could make it back in on their own.
 
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Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,328
IMPORTANT: Okay guys I know I said that debates are welcome here but please try not to carry them on too long because I'm starting to sense way too much tension here. We've had a few users who were still debating Ice Climbers long after Sceptile's day started, and the users debating Sceptile weren't much better. Also when replying to someone, please try to keep it short. I'm not criticizing anyone in particular, I understand we're all passionate about this and I'll acknowledge that I've had my fair share of allowing my debating to get out of hand in the original RTC thread. I think sometimes we just need to agree to disagree.

Sceptile
Chance: 4% - The main thing Sceptile has going for them is popularity, which is still very minor compared to many other characters. I always found the GFW trio argument to be a bit unconvincing personally, I don't think any pokemon is chosen to represent their type.
Want: 60% - He seems like he could be fun to use.

Wonder Red prediction: 11%

Nominations: Henry Fleming x5

DAY OVER
EVERYONE PLEASE CALM DOWN
 

Moydow

The fairest of them all
GRimer
Joined
Aug 24, 2014
Messages
10,543
Wonder Red
Chance: 20%
The game was a relative commercial failure, but still got an entire cabinet worth of trophies, and a couple of songs. Kamiya has however made a point of banning anyone and everyone he sees on Twitter mentioning any of his characters in connection to Smash, but then goes on to say he would be "honoured" if they got in. Mixed signals, much? I'd say it's not entirely impossible, but not very likely either.

Want: 35%
The game isn't really my cup of tea, but he does look like he would have some potential.

Prediction for "playable NPCs": what is this%

Nominations: Phoenix Wright x5
 

Seanp12

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 21, 2015
Messages
223
Wonder Red
Chance: 20%
Unfortunately, The Wonderful 101 wasn't commercially successful, and its creator's position is ambiguous. If one of those two problems were solved, I'd bump my score up by ten to fifteen points.

Want: 25%
I haven't played The Wonderful 101, but I'm interested in it. I've heard many good things about it, and I think that Wonder Red (and presumably some assistance from the other 100) would make for a very interesting fighter. At the same time, I'm not begging for him either.

NPCs Concept
Prediction: 40%
Given that we have no evidence one way or the other, I suspect that this one will be a near tossup. Basically Ridley and AT fans vs. Everyone else. I think that the want score will leak into people's chance more than usual, but given the general doubt of even those who do want it, I think the "no" side will win out.

Nominations:
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Ridley x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date x3
 
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