Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[YoshiandToad]

Kratos...actually has an alphabet book for adults coming out this October on Amazon. No really:
Chance: 1%
Again, not impossible just very improbable. Nintendo and Sony don't have the same amicable relationship Nintendo and Microsoft have as far as we know with Nintendo being responsible for screwing Sony over and indirectly creating the Playstation to begin with. Sony haven't had as many(if any) crossplay titles with Nintendo as Microsoft have and Kratos is the closest thing they have to a true Sony mascot at this point since Crash, Lara Croft and Spyro all became multiplatform.

Want: 50%
I'm a little indifferent to Kratos as a whole having not had a lot of experience with him. The latest God of War looks interesting to me though and having recently obtained a second hand PS4 I'm considering getting it. I'm serious about that Alphabet Book though. Art work is incredible. Check it out.

There is no I in Master Chef
Chance: 20%
Possible. We're on a brand new Fighters Pass...Microsoft is more open to the idea of working with it's rivals than Sony. Definitely a big name character that could blow the roof off. Closest thing to an Xbox mascot is the Chief.

Want: 50%
Again, mostly indifferent. I like Halo, but I've never found Chief himself a particularly gripping character. Lots of fun weaponry to use for sure though, I just wonder what weapons would be included...

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Kratos Aurion.

Chance: 1%

Want: 0%

I don't see this guy happening before Lloyd Irving, and even then he has to compete with the likes of Yuri, Velvet and.........what? Not that Kratos? You mean we are talking about him? Really? Oh well. Here we go.

Chance: 1%

People are exaggerating the whole "MUST BE RELATED TO NINTENDO IS A FANRULE" thing. Yes, we have Joker, Cloud and Snake, but those aren't actual Sony characters, it's just that people ASSOCIATE them with Sony, same with Mega Man and Nintendo. Even if we have gotten a Microsoft rep, Sony is.................different. Sony is still a competitive company far more than Microsoft is or ever was with Nintendo.

Kratos has not made an appereance in any Nintendo System, not even a 3DS or GBA spinoff (you know, the one where the "ACHTUALLY" kind of guy would point out in order to justify their inclusion in Smash) and the developers AND publisher have no interest in bringing those games to Nintendo systems. I don't see why people think Cloud's inclusion will lead to someone like him. Maybe the likes of Lara, but not this guy.

Crash stopped beign a Playstation character since the 6th Generation. Kratos was and STILL is a Sony Player 100%. (well, and Java apparently)

Chance: 1%

It hurts me to put his chances this high. Microsoft oficially is now part of Smash, but that's all MC has really.

Yeah, MC is iconic...............in the west (namely America) but in Japan he might as well be Green Male Samus for them (not so different from the "another anime Swordman" crowd, eh Japan?) this wouldn't be so bad if the competition he had had much better reception there, had bigger longevity, and have.......ahem, Actual presence on Nintendo.

I mean, why do you think they added Banjo over him? Banjo is basically Nintendo's Oswald the Lucky Rabbit, a character that was once in Nintendo's hands and lost them to time. Microsoft knew this, because most of the Nintendosphere knows Microsoft as "the people who took Rare away (a narrative that simplifies the story to an absurd extent, yes, but they are still seen that way) and the good Public Reception they got due to approving Banjo for Smash was a good way of taking most of that negative reception away from years and years (DO NOT underestimate the power and influence of Social Media, im 100% sure that Banjo would have NOT happened if Phil didn't respond to that tweet or if the Banjo fan didn't tweet at all)

Master Chief?..........i mean yeah now Microsoft is willing to put their games on other systems. Except those games tend to be smaller Indie titles. Halo 3 did get ported to PC, but Microsoft has been doing that for a while (i mean, they also are known for Windows so they still have a market in the Computer side) and in the Banjo presentation Sakurai basically said "Go play Xbox if you want Banjo Kazooie games" which for me is an admission that Rare Replay and any major non-indie title from XBOX is NOT getting ported to Switch, at least for a loooooong time.

and this is not even taking into account other western competition like Crash, or even more of a death sentence to the Chief: Steve.

Steve has already his game on Nintendo Systems way before people were speculating Chief could get ports, is far more popular in Japan and among the general audience nowadays, and is actually requested far more than Chief. Banjo was an outlier, he was added because Microsoft KNEW the postive attention Banjo Kazooie would get, far more than Chiefs because people weren't talking about Chief, they talked about Banjo and Later Steve.

Even after Banjo's arrival, i still don't see Chief making it in, ESPECIALLY when there's another Microsoft Owned character who beats him at almost every category possible except for seniority and i guess Shock Value.

Nintendo may have allowed the Wonderful 101 to be released on other platforms despite claiming certain ownership of the game, but you sure as HELL will not see Mario in XBOX. Same goes to the Microsoft situation. Banjo in Smash? Cool, Microsoft got positive PR just by allowing a character they don't even care for (or isn't in line with their common demographic) into a game that was more in line with Banjo's audience, but allowing their only major player that's not a third party into Smash? No.

Want for both: 0%

Call me old fashioned, but these aren't characters i want in Smash. Yes i wanted Crash in Smash despite him beign seen as a PS1 character, but that is an idea that is no longer the case. If Crash was still a Sony exclusive series, i would not want him in Smash, same goes for Sonic in an alternate universe where Sega didn't implode and was still making Consoles. I want this to be a NINTENDO centric franchise, and guests are fine, but i can only tolerate them to certain point, and these 2 draw the line.

Im more critical of Guest characters in general as opposed to other people who are like "OH I LIKE THAT THING THEREFORE HE BELONGS WITH THIS THING". No, mindset like that only ends making **** like Tom and Jerry and Willwonka.

Keep in mind, i don't hate these characters or franchises, i just think there's a limit on how many stuff you can put before it feels absurd. I like Ed Edd N Eddy, but they should be crossing over with say, a Harem anime. I love Mega Man, but i don't see the point of it crossing it over with Aqua Team Hunger Force. The Walking Dead is (well, was) Great but why would you put Negan in Tekke-Aw **** that actually happened.

I know this is an unpopular opinion in the age of crossovers where everything and everyone must meet, but i don't see any reason to add Master Chief or Kratos in Smash outisde of them beign well.........video game characters.

I rather keep Smash more Nintendo centric, instead of turning it "THA ThiAsTORY IF GAMING" as many people proclaim and want to turn it into. and no if i was making Smash's roster i wouldn't add Joker, Snake or Cloud.

Granted, Crash and Sonic were once Competition, and i dont' deny the possibility of Microsoft just quitting the console market, and if that happens and Master Chief ever becomes a third party with DECENT Nintendo Support, sure welcome aboard. But now? Blehgh.

 

[Calamitas]

Thank you all for your input, we've read what you have to say and are having discussions about how to proceed with that concept taking it into account. Anyone else who has something to comment on the matter, as long as it's respectful it'll be appreciated.

One thing I still want to add to this, even if that concept ends up being counted as already having come to pass, can you at least wait until the rumored Direct before it gets removed? I kinda wanna wait and see what the next fighter is (assuming that FP7 gets revealed at that Direct, of course) before I decide on something else to start nominating.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

I don't think that ever mattered to the dev team. Unless you mean to tell us Italians feel represented by Mario or Luigi. And I honestly don't think including 1 character for every nation on the globe so that "people feel represented" is a good idea. Terry for instance represents SA far better than Blanka ever could... for what it's worth. My country isn't represented and I honestly don't know anyone who could be bothered to care otherwise.

Pretty much this. People don't care about if the character is the same etchnicity as them (unless it's the "Twiter Crowd", but the Twitter Crowd is.........special). Sure people may like seeing a member of their group beign represented, but they would rather have an interesing character over beign pandered over.

Honestly "person of color" just basically means "anything but a white guy" from what im reading here I main Simon, but the color of my skin is the only thing that i share with him. My favorite KOF character is Lucky Glauber, an African American Basketball-Karate fighter, but i like a character for their appeal and not because it represents the same ethnic group as i do.

Im Chilean and the only time i ever saw a Chilean Character in media was Scylla Lo from Saint Seiya. and im okay with that because i know Chile is one of those countries nobody gives a **** about and i would rather see a cool character over a character that represents a certain group.

I can understand the argument of racial and cultural diversity in Fighting Games like Street Fighter or Tekken, in which while the characters are fictional, there is an argument to be made that adding characters of different backgrounds could benefit the characters and made each one of them unique to each other, not to mention many different countries have their own martial arts that could complement a character's fighting style (Fatal Fury's Mary Blue, while clearly American, uses Sambo as a fighting style, a Soviet Martial Art that is usually not seen in media compared to Bare-Knuckle Boxing, Karate and Kung Fu) However even then that could lead to Tokenism, and a character's ethnicity is not the end all be all of making a FG roster when there's a lot of other aspects to it (Kyo and Goro Daimon are both Japanese, but go ahead and tell me they are the similar)

But in Smash? I don't see the point. People argue about representation in a far different manner. Smash is better off just sticking to see if a character has moveset potential, importance and popularity instead of "is this character white or black?" "American or Japanese"?

 

[NintenRob]

As the one who first nominated person of colour, I should throw my opinion into the ring.

I'll admit, I thought it mostly meant black people. I didn't realize Chinese people were also considered. Especially when the subject is person of colour and Min Min has the same skin colour as the vast majority of characters on the roster.

I started nominating it because of the black lives matter movement, and I think it'd make for interesting topic of discussion. If person of colour is said to have already happened because of Min Min, then perhaps we could relabel the nomination as purely someone who's black.


Although I think if Min Min counts, then lots of other characters count due to being Japanese.

 

[SargeAbernathy]

I'm abstaining from Kratos. I don't play the games.

Master Chief

Chance: 45%. Nintendo is willing to look to the west for inspiration for Smash this time around. They introduced Sans and Cuphead as costumes, Shovel Knight as an Assist, Shantae as a spirit, and Banjo Kazooie as a fighter. Throwing in another western character could certainly be in play. I think it's highly unlikely that a majority of the characters in the fighter's pass would be western. Heck, I think two more in this fighter's pass is asking too much. But one more could be a possibility.

Masterchief has a few things going for it right now, but I'd say if he didn't get in this time around ... then I don't see him getting in a later game.

Noms: In light of the new F-Zero leak ... Black Shadow.

 

[SharkLord]

As the one who first nominated person of colour, I should throw my opinion into the ring.

I'll admit, I thought it mostly meant black people. I didn't realize Chinese people were also considered. Especially when the subject is person of colour and Min Min has the same skin colour as the vast majority of characters on the roster.

I started nominating it because of the black lives matter movement, and I think it'd make for interesting topic of discussion. If person of colour is said to have already happened because of Min Min, then perhaps we could relabel the nomination as purely someone who's black.


Although I think if Min Min counts, then lots of other characters count due to being Japanese.

When I first saw the term being used after Pokemon Twitter gave their support, I was really confused because I never heard or used that term. I prefer use the specific ethnicity, or just say ethnic/racial minority. It's especially odd because if you used the color terms for an Asian or Native American, that's probably going to come off as really offensive, and the only races regularly referred to with a color are white people and black people.

It seems like a good deal of people who suggest a "person of color" usually mean a black person. We already have multiple people of color because we already have two Japanese (), a three-quarters Japanese (), a man with Japanese ancestry according to an old instruction manual (), a Japanese-analogue or two (), and a Chinese (). We've had ethnic minorities for a while, and generally people mean a black character (Which also brings up the issues of misusing the term, but that's a whole new can of worms that's best opened elsewhere).

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day will end in the morning. Before it ends, one thing me and the RTC team were talking of.

In order to clarify the PoC concept, we were talking of renaming it Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character. That being said, I want to make sure this would be kosher to everyone. In particular, I want the explicit blessing of the people who have been pushing it, like NintenRob or Calamitas .

 

[NintenRob]

Day will end in the morning. Before it ends, one thing me and the RTC team were talking of.

In order to clarify the PoC concept, we were talking of renaming it Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character. That being said, I want to make sure this would be kosher to everyone. In particular, I want the explicit blessing of the people who have been pushing it, like NintenRob or Calamitas .

I'm OK with it.

 

[MeteoRain]

I need a weapon.

Chance: 20%

On one hand, he's a western FPS character. Which normally is so abysmal for a character's chance if I must be honest.

Yet on the other, Microsoft is already on board with Banjo Kazooie and Nintendo hasn't utilized anything else from them and that makes the idea far more believable. I unfortunately think Nintendo might be more inclined for Minecraft, judging from an interview with Phil Spencer on how Banjo Kazooie came to be in Smash.

Want: 85%

Which is unfortunate, while I have no attachment to X-Box consoles or the Halo series, there's no denying Bungie's Halo is a huge landmark to Microsoft's success in the gaming industry. Not to mention the closest thing to the undisputed mascot of the X-Box.

I AM the God of War!

Chance: 2%

There's two problems with this guy.

One is the worldwide appeal of an orange spinning furball. The other is that unlike the orange furball, he's tethered to Sony who needs things like public shaming to participate in something as harmless as crossplay.

Want: 65%

Never really got into modern Sony with how their old mascots got tossed aside for a more gritty and edgey attitude. That said while I preferred the PS1 gang, one could do a lot worse than Kratos.

 

[Calamitas]

Day will end in the morning. Before it ends, one thing me and the RTC team were talking of.

In order to clarify the PoC concept, we were talking of renaming it Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character. That being said, I want to make sure this would be kosher to everyone. In particular, I want the explicit blessing of the people who have been pushing it, like NintenRob or Calamitas .

Yeah, I got no issue with it, either.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain today

Nominate a non white / Asian Human character as dlc.

 

[fogbadge]

looks like i opened that can of worms early, sorry about that

 

[NintenRob]

looks like i opened that can of worms early, sorry about that

Don't worry about it, I think it was a can of worms that was going to be opened anyway, it was probably better to get it sorted before the day anyway.

 

[IanTheGamer]

Kratos….

Chance - 0%:

Nintendo and Sony have a cold relationship. Both sides are likely not going to be willing to want to work with each other

Want 90%:

Kratos could potentially have a cool moveset, especially if he can utilize the Blades of Exile and his axe from God of War 2018. Plus, Kratos IS an iconic gaming character..



Master Chief…

Chance - 20%:

You may be wondering why I put Chief so high… Well, in addition to Microsoft and Nintendo's warm relationship as of late, there are three other reasons why… Reason one is because of Halo Infinite… Microsoft has been promoting the hell out if it… Reason two is because Microsoft will likely want to further promote the Xbox brand in Japan, and reason 3 is because KingZell/Captain Tsubasa, a leaker with a very credible track record, has been implying heavily that the Master Chief Collection is coming to Switch. Also, Sakurai did play Halo 2 and was stated to have liked it.. Of course, Nintendo might want Steve instead, and Halo as a series is well, niche in Japan


Want - 100%:

I happen to have played Halo CE through Halo Reach, and I loved them. Chief would have an awesome moveset.. I mean in addition to his ballistic weapons, he also has access to Needlers, Gravity Hammers, Energy Swords, Plasma Grenades, Spikers, and even the freaking Spartan Laser. The world of Halo also happens to have some of the best music in gaming.. Lastly, if Smash truly is supposed to be a celebration of gaming, we DO need an FPS rep..

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over.

today we got one of our first AT days, lookin at Isaac and Ashley. Rate them in chance and want,

tomorrow, it’s valve time. Predict Gordon Freeman and Heavy Weapons Guy.

also there have been murmurs of a direct on Monday, if we get one, fixed schedule pauses for predictions, reactions, and if we get a character we might do satisfaction or wait until we get more info (likely the latter). Then the schedule resumes.

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on both. I’m done rating Assist Trophies.

Gordon: 10%
Heavy: 50%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×2
Sakura Shinguji ×3

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Isaac

Spoiler: Golden Sun Music

Ashley

Since Ashley really just has her one theme (which is already in Smash), I'm just gonna post a bunch of my favorite WarioWare tracks.

Spoiler: WarioWare Music

Put Body Rock in Smash you cowards

 

[Sid-cada]

Kratos

Chance - 0% - Sony's infamously stingy when it comes to working with those outside it's brand. Sony and Nintendo never had particularly good relations, even putting aside the never on Nintendo Console rule. Kratos would probably end up being chosen if their was a chance of a Sony character, but Sony probably won't let that happen.

Want - 35% - Eh, I'd rather keep Smash more Nintendo focused. He just doesn't appeal to me.


Master Chief

Chance - 5% - While Microsoft may have given us Banjo, I don't think that translates into making Master Chief likely. Banjo was a highly unique character with a series of circumstances that likely won't able to be replicated. While Chief may be able to get in due to Microsoft being more chummy with Nintendo, I'm not certain that will happen.

Want - 35% - Largely the same I feel about Kratos. I don't really care much.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Lyncario]

Vlad
Chance: 0%
I believe that assist trophy disconfirm, which is reinforced by things such as Spring Man not even being condidered, or how Sakurai said that assist were not playable, or how if assist trophy could be fighters, why were the ATs of Little Mac (Brawl), Isabelle, and Dark Samus cut in the game where they became playable. Beyond assist discnofirming, why would Isaac join as dlc? Golden Sun is currently dead, and Isaac does not have a push nearly as big as what Banjo had. And if the fan demand for him matered that much, he would have been in base game.
Want: 25%
A neutral minus want rating for Isaac, because Golden Sun is meh at best.

Spoiler

Seriously, the vilains that you meet at the begining of the first game turn out to actualy be good guys trying to save the worls with no foreshadowing of it in either games, and the game just tells you that you almost doomed the world, which is the worst kind of plot twist ever,

and really makes the narative of the games really bad, which is very not good because Golden Sun is a story based jrpg. Also I don't like playing him in SSF2, he feels so unnatural and weird in it. Isaac is just not my kind of character.

The little girl next door, living in an haunted mansion
Chance: 0%
Same reason than for Isaac, I believe that assist trophies disconfirm. In top of that, Ashley could have been put in base game to advertise Wario Ware Gold, but it did not happen, and I doubt very much that it would even go trough the mind of the highter ups at Nintendo. It's pretty much the same reason than, for Isaac, execpt that her series is at least not dead.
Want: 50%
Cool magical powers and a fun personality, she would be a mage character which would be really cool for Smash while just being a fun character overall. But Wario Ware is not really my thing, so I'm keeping it at just 50% for her.

Predictions:
Gordon: 6.8%
Heavy: 14.7%

Nominations:
5 for an SMT rep

 

[amageish]

Abstain today. I don't think I can deliver an unbiased rating haha.

Noms: Moogle x5
Predictions: Gordon = 2% / Heavy = 3%

A neutral minus want rating for Isaac, because Golden Sun is meh at best

I'd put the spoilers into a spoiler tab. Even if you don't like the twists, there is no reason to spoil them out in the open.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Isaac

Chance: 10% - Spirits being back on the table certainly helps, along with a lot of fan demand since the early Smash 4 days. However, Assist Trophies are still in a shaky spot, and if any assist is going to be promoted it will more than likely be Waluigi (bigger character with much bigger outcry for his inclusion). Furthermore, the franchise still remains dormant and while we haven't seen anything from Camelot for a couple of years, it's no guarentee that it's a Golden Sun game. Also remember all of that Isaac evidence from prerelease that ended up amounting to nothing? Until we see something truly solid I just don't see Isaac's chances as being substantial. His main claim to fame is fan demand, but even in that category he's outclassed by other characters (though not by a huge margin).

Still, we could be getting a first party-oriented pass and Min Min certainly blindsided us so we'll have to see how things play out. That's definitely a point in Isaac's favor.

Want: 20% - No attachment to the character or his games, and JRPGs already got a lot of love in the last pass. Though his fans have certainly been waiting a long time so I'd be happy for them!

I still wanna see Waluigi get promoted first, though!


Ashley

Chance: 5% - Also an assist trophy but without the same level of fan demand. Ashley does have recency points with WarioWare Gold releasing just last year, along with WarioWare in general being an ongoing franchise. Furthermore, we'll no doubt get a WarioWare for the Switch at some point so she definitely has another release to potentially promote. She's also by far the most popular of WarioWare's original characters (for better or for worse), this (along with Nintendo's general lack of care for Wario Land) makes her a mostly undisputed frontrunner for a second rep for Wario's spinoffs.

Though with only five slots left, I certainly don't see her being a priority, though a potentially first party-oriented pass does indeed boost her chances a decent bit. There's also the issue of content, while her Mansion could be her stage, spirits and music remain an issue (and unlike with ARMS, most of WarioWare's major characters are already spirits, and a DLC spirit board still needs a decent amount of completely new spirits). There's also the issue of music, and while there are still WarioWare songs she could come with, her own theme music (several versions in fact) are already in the game, and as far as I'm aware there's not a lot of other Ashley-specific music (though from what I'm aware she does have her own unique minigame theme in Gold). I can certainly see her being in a base roster, but not as a standalone DLC character.

Want: 10% - While she has a cute design (and another mage/summoner moveset would be cool), I can't say I care much about Ashley. In addition to her being a bit of a spotlight hog in her series, WarioWare already has excellent representation for now, and with Wario's moveset now 100% WarioWare-based, I'd rather see a different Wario female: Captain Syrup. Fantastic antagonist with a cool design, and with Wario going full on WarioWare, she'd be able to represent the Wario Land games on her own and have a much richer and more interesting challenger pack. Wario Land is starving for content (isn't the Ruins song from Shake It the only Wario Land song in the game? Wario Land also has only three spirits), and I think she would alleviate this problem and have all of Wario represented properly. Ashley would just be more WarioWare, and while she's certainly a good character, we don't really need an entire challenger pack dedicated to WarioWare.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Gordon Freeman - 1.43% - We rated him recently, and while he's iconic, Valve's complete lack of a relationship with Nintendo greatly holds him back.
Heavy Weapons Guy - 2.65% - A little more due to greater fan demand but still has all of Gordon's drawbacks.

 

[Lyncario]

I'd put the spoilers into a spoiler tab. Even if you don't like the twists, there is no reason to spoil them out in the open.

Ok, I just did not though that it matered all that much considering how old the games are.

Spoiler

Also I forgot how to use the spoiler feature of the site until you reminded me that it exist

 

[ArkSPiTFirE]

Isaac

Chance: 65% - This is going to be a hard sell I know. I guess his real chances are 55% with my personal bias being an extra 10%. There's definitely no evidence saying that Isaac is coming as a fighter, however there's plenty of reason not to rule him out. His franchise, Golden Sun, is not yet represented in Smash with a fighter or stage, so his inclusion would bring a new world to the series (outside of spirits and costumes). Not only a new world, but an RPG series published by Nintendo, no Square Enix rights needed. Oh, and Golden Sun could make a return on the Switch, we're just waiting for it at this point. I can imagine his chances rocketing if it gets announced in the next direct.

There's a few other tin foil theories like, why was no new music added with the assist trophy? Same as ARMS. He also still has a lot of fan support, and although the AT rule hasn't been strictly broken, I feel like Min Min's inclusion is enough to believe they won't let an AT stop them from including who they want.

Want: 100% - Obviously I'm an Isaac supporter, he's my number one pick. I'm not here to brigade, i'm here to represent. I've posted in the thread for certain others i'm interested in. Also it goes without saying that Isaac has been a popular choice for fans since the Brawl days, placing high in polls until his Assist Trophy killed a lot momentum. For me, I've wanted him since playing the original games and seeing his assist in Brawl. I just believe he will be an amazing fighter and he'll bring with him so much of the things I love from Golden Sun.

Ashley

Chance: 15% - So, if I believe the assist trophy rule doesn't matter because I want Isaac, then Ashley has a chance right? She sure does, but I think Ashley has a much bigger problem of where she fits in the gaming sphere. I've played WarioWare games before but even then I could not have told you who Ashley was until Smash Ultimate speculation. I understand now and I can see she has some long standing supporters. However, Ashley's problem is she is that she's very much a side character. I feel like she really needs her own game to showcase what she's all about and give the Smash team something to work from. I also feel like Sakurai and Nintendo will still focus on new franchises/game worlds as much as they can.

Want: 30% - I would not be upset if she were added, but i'm not much of a supporter beyond getting an Assist Trophy promoted in the DLC.

 

[CornOnTheCob]

Abstain. I have no experience with Golden Sun save for watching my sister play the second game and Ashley's cool and all but eh.

Predictions: Gordon Freeman 4%, Heavy 5%

Nominations: SMT representative x5

 

[Kalaam]

Isaac: 75%
Sakurai loves to prove fanrules wrong, he did it time and time again, one after the other. AT means nothing, there is already measures in game to disable them under certain circumstances, not even for technical issues (Isaac is disabled on Terry's stage because there is walls so his Move would probably cause issues) but even as a simple joke: Aka Alucard not showing up on the WiiFit stage because there is a mirror. And he's a vampire.
So if Sakurai disable an AT for something as simple as a joke, I don't see why it wouldn't be disabled for a fighter.
Now that this is out of the way, the reasons why I rate him that high.

For anynone doing a little bit of research, it's fairly obvious that a new Golden Sun game is in the works.
A new trademark was filed in late 2018, got approved in japan in november 2019 and then got consistently and relentlessely pushed by Nintendo to get approved worldwide, including in regions where Golden Sun was never released before. I reiterate: a NEW trademark, this is not a renewal. It is separate from all other Golden Sun trademarks (further proof, Dark Dawn's trademark got renewed earlier this year, and that one was indeed a renewal since it's still the same trademark) and has different categories from the other ones. Categories that just so happen to be the same as any Switch game Nintendo ever released.
Golden Sun's fandom have been more active than ever during the Smash speculation, probably enough to get noticed, and even if Pass1 was already decided, they may have taken note of it for the next game or, as we now have a 2nd Pass, this one. The demand has stayed consistent for over 10 years by now, since Brawl, and is stronger than ever now.
Isaac would promote both a new release on Switch AND add a long requested character, a mix of what Banjo and Byleth were basically. A Byleth with no backlash.

Now there is a theory, which is just that, when noticing a pattern (you know, like the AT rules and all that jazz) with how Golden Sun and ARMS were treated in base game. Both got bunch of spirit and an AT, for franchises with no playable fighters. Sakurai recently said that at the time, ARMS was not finished yet, but seemed interresting, so he added all that content for now. The theory goes that, as some of the 1st Pass characters were supposedly hard to get the right to use (Hero and Banjo, Sakurai himself said that Banjo was surprisingly easy to get) some characters may have been kept as "backup" in case they couldn't secure the rights for those characters. According to that theory, those could have been Isaac and Springman (or any other ARMS rep). So who knows ? Only Sakurai does.


Want: 100%
I don't even need to explain.



TL-DR: Isaac is very likely because a new Golden Sun is on the horizon and he'd be both a promotional pick and a fanrequest. AT Rule means crap.



Ashley: No idea. Honestly, I don't know the character at all. So I won't make any judgment on something I don't know.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Sakurai loves to prove fanrules wrong

I don't think he's deliberately targeting fan rules as much as it is he and Nintendo not caring for the sense of "purity" this fanbase wants to enforce on the roster. IE: Byleth being more FE and the finisher of a third-party-focused pass, Min Min being a first party who's a spirit and not the Ryu of her game.

Which promoting an AT as DLC would be.

 

[Kalaam]

I don't think he's deliberately targeting fan rules as much as it is he and Nintendo not caring for the sense of "purity" this fanbase wants to enforce on the roster. IE: Byleth being more FE and the finisher of a third-party-focused pass, Min Min being a first party who's a spirit and not the Ryu of her game.

Which promoting an AT as DLC would be.

Yeah I know, i wrote it like that as a joke. Though he definitely is aware of what the fanbase thinks (Byleth's joke about too many swordsmen...) so I wouldn't be surprised if he mentionned it.

 

[SharkLord]

Isaac
Chance: 60%. Yeah, yeah, "Assists deconfirm" and all... But do they really? They can easily be toggled on and off, like the Moon not appearing in Great Termina Bay because it's already there, many Assists not showing up in certain stages because they would heavily interfere with the mechanics, and Alucard not showing up in Wii Fit Studio just because vampire don't have reflections, etc. Min Min might seem like the final nail in the coffin, but I honestly see her as loosening the screws. Spring Man wasn't passed over because he was an Assist, Yabuki just wanted Min Min. Sakurai didn't say anything about Assists deconfirming, that's just something that hasn't happened yet.

As for Isaac himself? He's got popularity under his belt, and the possibility of a new Golden Sun game is there. That being said, he's got some competition stacked against him, and Nintendo might not see him as very profitable, especially for DLC.

Want: 90%. While I'm not as big a Golden Sun fan as the Isaac Support Thread regulars, I'm pretty interested in it and I want to be able to experience it. The music's pretty good, and Isaac could have a unique stage control-based moveset with his earth powers.

Ashley
Chance: 30%. I went over the Assists above already, but Isaac has one thing Ashley doesn't: A series he could bring with him. WarioWare is already represented a fair bit, and it would make no sense for Ashley to suddenly become a Wario Land rep. Couple that with her fans going silent after the Spirit-pocalypse and subsequent surge of third-parties, and Ashley's in a bit of a tight spot right now.

Want: 50%. She'd be cool, I guess. Don't really lean either way too much.

Predictions:
Gordon Freeman: 21.97%
Heavy Weapons Guy: 33.86%

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[Sari]

Ashley

Chance: 1%
She's an assist trophy which I think is a big blow to her chances. As far as AT promotions go she doesn't seem too high priority compared to other characters like Waluigi and Isaac. Even if we were to get another Wario character (which tbh I don't see being a priority), she has big competition with characters like Mona who have greater prominence within the series.

Want: 100%
WarioWare is one of those series that would be perfect for additional reps. All of the characters are colorful and unique in their own way that they could probably make a fighting game with just the Wario cast. While I would be completely fine with characters like Mona, Kat & Ana, and 9-Volt, Ashley is definitely my most wanted WarioWare character. We need more magic users plus I think we are long overdue for a traditional witch character (I know Bayo is technically a witch but she's not the hocus pocus type). I'd love to see how they'd incorporate Red into her moveset; maybe she'd be another Rosalina sort of fighter where Red helps her out in battle.

-----

Isaac

Wow, and I thought my chance score was gonna be way too high

Chance: 15%
Of the possible assist trophy candidates, I think Isaac is the second most likely (first being Waluigi). While I still do think AT's have a chance, I'm not too confident in them as I was before after Spring Man got pushed aside for Min Min. Isaac does have Smash popularity but his series being dormant for a long time doesn't help.

EDIT: So apparently Golden Sun got a new trademark but I'll wait to see if that actually leads to something. Until a new game actually gets announced I'm still keeping my chance score the same since the stuff about him being an AT still stands.

Want: Abstain
Didn't get too far in the first Golden Sun so I'll abstain.

-----

Gordon chance prediction: 15.00%
Heavy chance prediction: 5.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Dirt Kid and Demon Girl

Chance: abstain
I think ATs disconfirm, it's the only reason I can think of that explains Spring Man getting snubbed, but I don't wanna give these two 1% scores so I'm abstaining.

Want: 100%
I've been supporting Isaac for over 10 years now, I can't believe he isn't in yet. He brings so much to the table: an unprecedented earthbending moveset, a great stage, awesome music, and best of all, representation for a fantastic series. Isaac in Smash would be a dream for me, and I know that for many others as well.

Meanwhile, Ashley is just a character that should be in Smash. WarioWare more than warrants a second character at this point. And as much of a Mona fan as I am, I can acknowledge that Ashley transcends WarioWare. She could easily be a new mascot for Nintendo if they capitalized on her (though given the recent Tanabe interview, I don't even know if Nintendo wants new mascots from the Marioverse).

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Gordy prediction: 23.41%
Heavy prediction: 11.86%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Chance for both: Abstain

Ashley

Want: 100%

Warioware is a great series and Ashley is a well loved character. I'd be ecstatic to see her in Smash.

Isaac

Want: 100%

I like rooting for underdog series like Golden Sun and Isaac seems to be by none the most requested AT upgrade behind Waluigi. I think he's more than well deserving to be added.

 

[NessAtc.]

Isaac:

Want: 100%

There isn't a character I've wanted more period. This doesn't even need to be explained.

Chance: 65%
Things definitely seem to be lining up pretty well, what with a new Golden Sun installment being all but confirmed at this point, plus in spite of Sakurai easily being able to say Spring Man being an assist kept him from being the playable rep, he actually had several different reasons that weren't that instead. Plus, with the confirmation that all the ARMS content it got in base game being compensation for not getting a playable character and yet no music, Golden Sun is another franchise that was in the same situation; 6 spirit battles all using the same song? If I'm wrong, I won't be mad, just extremely, extremely confused.

I do maintain that the universe loves to toy with me, so there is an unignorable chance that I just get screwed

Ashley:

Want: 30%

Meh, I guess she'd be cool? I've never really been one for characters of her type.

Chance 0%
Yeah, I really really doubt we're getting another Wario character at this point. It's of similar status to Yoshi, where most of the notable Wario characters are intrinsically linked to Mario, and the rest are kinda just ignored outside of Wario's own stuff.

 

[Lyncario]

I'm confused. Why are pepople saying that a new Golden Sun game is likely, did something happen regarding trademarks or something?

 

[YoshiandToad]

Let's give him a big hand:
Chance: 4%
Isaac is...an assist Trophy from a series that hasn't had a new game in a decade now, and his own game that has his iconic spiky haired young appearance is 19 years old...I'm not hopeful.

I think he's the second most likely (first party) assist upgrade after Waluigi, but frankly I can't see any reason to suspect he's likely with nothing to promote here. He has fan demand, that I can't argue, but I'm not certain that'll be enough to get him in to Ultimate.

All of you guys voting over 50% sure are...umm...hopeful I suppose? But seeing Isaac as literally more likely than not when there's only five characters left and third parties to fight against as well seems pretty bold, even if Golden Sun was a smash hit, getting current releases and Isaac didn't have the extra assist trophy hurdle.

If Golden Sun gets a game actually announced, I'll consider him more likely, but until then I'm taking the trademarking with a pinch of salt.

Want: 80%
That said, just because I think Isaac has no hope in hell doesn't mean I think he's a bad choice and he'd actually make me really happy to see make the cut. Golden Sun is my sibling's favourite Nintendo series and they've wanted Isaac almost as long as I've wanted Toad. It'd be really nice to see Isaac, and indeed Golden Sun, finally get some playable representation in Super Smash Bros.

80% is about as high as I can personally give Isaac for want considering I've never played Golden Sun and my desire to see him is all via a second party.

Yet more Witch Time:
Chance: 2%
Popular in Japan...that's it chief. That's Ashley's biggest pro. Japan absolutely adore the witch and used her very heavily in their Nintendo Arcade badges, and when it comes to WarioWare, very few characters are as popular as the tiny witch who turns teachers into spoons.

Want: 10%
That said, I've personally never really liked Ashley as a character.
Between some of her fanbase(not all, but some) being super creepy towards her, her stealing spotlight from all the other WarioWare cast at times, WarioWare's cast being barely 'playable' characters in most of their games in the first place and Ashley's magic spells feeling just kinda generic in every iteration we see of her, I can't say she appeals to me.

If Ashley had more of a defined custom magic move I'd be more open, but nothing about Ashley really stands out to me from dozens of other witch archetypes and even her assist trophy is kind of lackluster with just a slow down effect on a magic cloud.

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain.
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Master Chief/Kratos pre-Isaac/Ashley

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x200
Tidus x170
Moogle x165
Nate Adams x150
Shuichi Saihara x126
Alex Mason x125
The Stretchers x120
[Rerate] Ezio x120

150 - 101

Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116
D.Va x115
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
[Rerate] Frisk x110

100 - 51

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Billy Hatcher x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Echo: Xion (Sora) x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Sakura Shinguji x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x65
The Terrarian x60
Riptor x60
Concept: Deltarune content x57
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Rocket League rep x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Klonoa x50
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x44
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Gooigi x40
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25

Under 25

Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Dr. Goomba Tower x20
Black Shadow x20
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
John Marston x15
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x5
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2

Shuichi Saihara passes Alex Mason and is now in fifth place. Ezio sneaks into the top seven and duels with The Stretchers for the last spot.

The concepts SNES-era Final Fantasy rep and Rocket League rep ride past 50 noms.

Joining the fray we have Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief with 5 noms.

 

[fogbadge]

isaac
chances: hmm isac chances are a hard one to judge, not cause of him being an AT. he has the popularity sure, on the level of ridley or k.rool and there in lies the point. if that amount of popularity wasnt enough for the base roster im not sure itd be enough for dlc. so he has the same things going for him as did for the base roster but now with the potential obstacle of the AT. overall i gonna go with 5%

want: 80% i enjoyed the whole trilogy and while isaac may not be my favourite character i would love to have him in smash. none of the giant hand nonsense though, lets have rocks, plants and djini

now then, the star of two very obscure visual novel games.... what? oh. that ashley. abstain

nominate nate adams x5

 

[Kalaam]

I'm confused. Why are pepople saying that a new Golden Sun game is likely, did something happen regarding trademarks or something?

I litteraly explained what happened in my post.

 

[Lyncario]

I litteraly explained what happened in my post.

I'm terrible at noticing stuff when it's right in front of my eyes, it seems.