WaddleMatt
Smash Lord
The trademarks are old news now just most people said it was too good to be true which is stupid. The trademarks most definitely make it look like a new game is on the way.
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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes
- Thread starter TCT~Phantom
- Start date
chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,280
Abstain. I don't have any opinions on these two. Although this Golden Sun conspiracy theory has gotten me REALLY confused...
Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5
Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,370
A golden horizon
Chance: 35%
I have a lot to say. First, I was going to give Isaac a smaller score until I heard about the new trademark. Not a renewal, but a brand new trademark. That, combined with the demand for a new game, makes me confident that a new game could be coming soon, which could finally push Nintendo to make Isaac into a playable character. Considering that the new trademark was made a couple years ago, that would give just enough time for Isaac to be considered for this pass.
As for the assist trophy situation, I still think they could be upgraded. I disagree with Sari and GoodGrief. Sakurai chose Min Min because the director of ARMS asked for Min Min. Granted, Sakurai pointed out Min Min and Ninjara, not Spring Man, but at the same time he never implied that Spring Man was off the table because of his assist trophy. Yabuki said it himself, every character in ARMS is the main character. You could make the argument that Sakurai passed over Spring Man because Min Min is just as important to the game in the director's eyes and she made for a more interesting moveset with the Rim Rim and dragon arm, not because of Spring Man's assist trophy. Min Min also represents the game very well so the argument "Spring Man is the more fitting character and Sakurai always goes for the character that best reflects the series" is mute in this scenario. So until this pass is over with, I'm not believing that assist trophies definitely deconfirm characters. And again, the developers have shown that they can turn off assist trophies with the flip of a switch so in my eyes the situation with assist trophies has not changed, aside from maybe a little less confidence since again Sakurai did not address Spring Man's assist trophy status which is a bit strange.
Is Isaac super likely though? I can't give a confident yes as even if assist trophies are on the table, he still has to deal with other requested characters like Waluigi, though I think he is up there, maybe even the second likeliest assist trophy upgrade. He also has a boost in chance thanks to Min Min indicating a first party dominate pass. Overall, I think Isaac is quite likely. His fanbase has been very vocal for a long time and with the spirit rule broken, I think the assist trophy rule might be next. He is far from a lock, but I have a feeling this might be his time.
Want: 80%
I've been meaning to get into Golden Sun recently, I just have been focusing on other games. But I would love Isaac to be playable. His fans have definitely showed me why he would be a great choice from just visiting the support thread. Amazing moveset potential with earth spells, great music, interesting stage choices, and overall Golden Sun feels missing from the roster. His fans are just so passionate, probably the most passionate newcomer fanbase alongside the Genobros. It would be great to see their reaction to their favorite character getting in and the inclusion would make the game feel more ultimate.
__________
Spoopy girl with an intimidating name, apparently
Chance: 15%
I could see Ashley happening. WarioWare is an ongoing series that is popular in both Japan and even the West. Her fans are vocal as well, but I have a tough time seeing her getting upgraded when Isaac and Waluigi are in the same situation. Though to be fair WarioWare has relevancy over Golden Sun, which isn't a deciding factor I must stress, but relevancy does add points to a character's likeliness. Even then, Ashley won't have that advantage if Golden Sun does get another game. Overall, I say she has a decent chance, but she might not have priority over other big first party characters, not to mention the fact that we certainly will get more third party character. Plus, the fact that we haven't gotten a Wario character since Brawl hurts her chances even more.
Want: 5%
I've played WarioWare and while I've enjoyed it, I can't say I want another character from this series. The WarioWare stages represents the games well enough for me and I'm fine with Wario alone representing his games. Ashley just doesn't appeal to me and there are other magic users I want.
Predictions:
Gordon and Heavy Weapons Guy - 10% both
Noms: Ezio x5
Chance: 35%
I have a lot to say. First, I was going to give Isaac a smaller score until I heard about the new trademark. Not a renewal, but a brand new trademark. That, combined with the demand for a new game, makes me confident that a new game could be coming soon, which could finally push Nintendo to make Isaac into a playable character. Considering that the new trademark was made a couple years ago, that would give just enough time for Isaac to be considered for this pass.
As for the assist trophy situation, I still think they could be upgraded. I disagree with Sari and GoodGrief. Sakurai chose Min Min because the director of ARMS asked for Min Min. Granted, Sakurai pointed out Min Min and Ninjara, not Spring Man, but at the same time he never implied that Spring Man was off the table because of his assist trophy. Yabuki said it himself, every character in ARMS is the main character. You could make the argument that Sakurai passed over Spring Man because Min Min is just as important to the game in the director's eyes and she made for a more interesting moveset with the Rim Rim and dragon arm, not because of Spring Man's assist trophy. Min Min also represents the game very well so the argument "Spring Man is the more fitting character and Sakurai always goes for the character that best reflects the series" is mute in this scenario. So until this pass is over with, I'm not believing that assist trophies definitely deconfirm characters. And again, the developers have shown that they can turn off assist trophies with the flip of a switch so in my eyes the situation with assist trophies has not changed, aside from maybe a little less confidence since again Sakurai did not address Spring Man's assist trophy status which is a bit strange.
Is Isaac super likely though? I can't give a confident yes as even if assist trophies are on the table, he still has to deal with other requested characters like Waluigi, though I think he is up there, maybe even the second likeliest assist trophy upgrade. He also has a boost in chance thanks to Min Min indicating a first party dominate pass. Overall, I think Isaac is quite likely. His fanbase has been very vocal for a long time and with the spirit rule broken, I think the assist trophy rule might be next. He is far from a lock, but I have a feeling this might be his time.
Want: 80%
I've been meaning to get into Golden Sun recently, I just have been focusing on other games. But I would love Isaac to be playable. His fans have definitely showed me why he would be a great choice from just visiting the support thread. Amazing moveset potential with earth spells, great music, interesting stage choices, and overall Golden Sun feels missing from the roster. His fans are just so passionate, probably the most passionate newcomer fanbase alongside the Genobros. It would be great to see their reaction to their favorite character getting in and the inclusion would make the game feel more ultimate.
__________
Spoopy girl with an intimidating name, apparently
Chance: 15%
I could see Ashley happening. WarioWare is an ongoing series that is popular in both Japan and even the West. Her fans are vocal as well, but I have a tough time seeing her getting upgraded when Isaac and Waluigi are in the same situation. Though to be fair WarioWare has relevancy over Golden Sun, which isn't a deciding factor I must stress, but relevancy does add points to a character's likeliness. Even then, Ashley won't have that advantage if Golden Sun does get another game. Overall, I say she has a decent chance, but she might not have priority over other big first party characters, not to mention the fact that we certainly will get more third party character. Plus, the fact that we haven't gotten a Wario character since Brawl hurts her chances even more.
Want: 5%
I've played WarioWare and while I've enjoyed it, I can't say I want another character from this series. The WarioWare stages represents the games well enough for me and I'm fine with Wario alone representing his games. Ashley just doesn't appeal to me and there are other magic users I want.
Predictions:
Gordon and Heavy Weapons Guy - 10% both
Noms: Ezio x5
waddledeeonredyoshi
Smash Lord
I'm deciding to abstain on both of these because my knowledge on Ashley is a bit thin and I was planning to give Isaac a poor score but I only just now learned about the new trademark thingy and I don't know what to think of it yet but I'll say that if nothing Golden Sun is shown at the next Direct I still won't be very confident in his chances. I will give him a 50% want still since I do have some interest in GS myself and would be all for more nicher Nintendo series to join the fray. But preferably if they don't hog the spot from Bandana Dee.
Gordon Freeman: 7.17%
Heavy: 3.88%
Deltarune content x5
Gordon Freeman: 7.17%
Heavy: 3.88%
Deltarune content x5
warpenguin55
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 490
Isaac
Chance: 2%
Sorry Isaac fans, he's not coming. I'm pretty sure that with Min Min being the choice from ARMS, we won't be seeing any assist trophy upgrades this time around.
Want: 70%
I told this story before, but here it is again. When I first saw Isaac in Brawl, I really liked him because I thought I played his games. I have never played Golden Sun in my life and still have no idea why I thought I knew him. None the less, that random mix up is part of the reason I still like him today.
Ashley
Chance: 0%
There's really no way in for Ashley. Even if assist trophies didn't deconfirm, she's outclassed by her competition. Isaac and Waluigi are both way more requested and well known assist trophy characters. I don't see a way for Ashley to get around them.
Want: 0%
Warioware doesn't need more reps. Hell, I'm pretty sure that the only reason Wario is listed as one is because we have the Warioware stage. Most people probably know Wario as the weird fat dude in Mario sports games anyway. I know I said before that DK and Kirby don't need more reps, but if they both should get about 3 more before Warioware gets 1.
Noms: Alex Mason x5
Chance: 2%
Sorry Isaac fans, he's not coming. I'm pretty sure that with Min Min being the choice from ARMS, we won't be seeing any assist trophy upgrades this time around.
Want: 70%
I told this story before, but here it is again. When I first saw Isaac in Brawl, I really liked him because I thought I played his games. I have never played Golden Sun in my life and still have no idea why I thought I knew him. None the less, that random mix up is part of the reason I still like him today.
Ashley
Chance: 0%
There's really no way in for Ashley. Even if assist trophies didn't deconfirm, she's outclassed by her competition. Isaac and Waluigi are both way more requested and well known assist trophy characters. I don't see a way for Ashley to get around them.
Want: 0%
Warioware doesn't need more reps. Hell, I'm pretty sure that the only reason Wario is listed as one is because we have the Warioware stage. Most people probably know Wario as the weird fat dude in Mario sports games anyway. I know I said before that DK and Kirby don't need more reps, but if they both should get about 3 more before Warioware gets 1.
Noms: Alex Mason x5
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
Ashley
Chance 0 - Don't forsee this happening. First because her hype has seemingly dropped off the face of the earth lately. Deconfirmations hit hard I know, but where other fanbases stepped up it feels like hers trailed off in a major way. I also just cant see them picking someone other than Waluigi or Isaac for a promotion either right now. Those 2 have the most vocal supporters and while we could get surprised I don't think we will.
Want 0 - Not every series needs multiple reps, and to me Warioware feels like one of those series. To be completely honest I wouldn't even really care if Wario wasn't repping Warioware in Smash. WW and Ashley don't really do anything for me and I'd rather not have her in the game
Isaac
Chance 50 - Like I said above, I can see this happening. Isaac is one of the big 3 requests along with Geno and Waluigi so it feels like he'd at least be on Nintendo's radar for a spot in DLC. Isaac can also get past the hurdle of not having enough content in the game with there being 2 songs and no stages in the game. Spirits might be a bit of an issue but as we've seen with Min Mins board it doesn't have to entirely be new spirits coming in. Overall he avoids most if not all of the issues I see other first parties run into and it just comes down to if Nintendo wants to promote him or not. I'm leaning towards not but hey, there could also be stuff in the works we dont know about yet. Also, Isaac would be able to bring a new mechanic into the game with growth synergy among other things so I could see them opting for him because of that too.
Want 60 - I'd like this. Isaac would be a unique fighter who would satisfy a fanbase who has been asking for him for a long time. Props to them for not getting annoying like the Geno one can too. I don't have experience with the games or character but I'd still like to see him get in.
Predictions
Heavy - 13.45%
Gordon Freeman - 8.51%
Noms
Riptor x5
Chance 0 - Don't forsee this happening. First because her hype has seemingly dropped off the face of the earth lately. Deconfirmations hit hard I know, but where other fanbases stepped up it feels like hers trailed off in a major way. I also just cant see them picking someone other than Waluigi or Isaac for a promotion either right now. Those 2 have the most vocal supporters and while we could get surprised I don't think we will.
Want 0 - Not every series needs multiple reps, and to me Warioware feels like one of those series. To be completely honest I wouldn't even really care if Wario wasn't repping Warioware in Smash. WW and Ashley don't really do anything for me and I'd rather not have her in the game
Isaac
Chance 50 - Like I said above, I can see this happening. Isaac is one of the big 3 requests along with Geno and Waluigi so it feels like he'd at least be on Nintendo's radar for a spot in DLC. Isaac can also get past the hurdle of not having enough content in the game with there being 2 songs and no stages in the game. Spirits might be a bit of an issue but as we've seen with Min Mins board it doesn't have to entirely be new spirits coming in. Overall he avoids most if not all of the issues I see other first parties run into and it just comes down to if Nintendo wants to promote him or not. I'm leaning towards not but hey, there could also be stuff in the works we dont know about yet. Also, Isaac would be able to bring a new mechanic into the game with growth synergy among other things so I could see them opting for him because of that too.
Want 60 - I'd like this. Isaac would be a unique fighter who would satisfy a fanbase who has been asking for him for a long time. Props to them for not getting annoying like the Geno one can too. I don't have experience with the games or character but I'd still like to see him get in.
Predictions
Heavy - 13.45%
Gordon Freeman - 8.51%
Noms
Riptor x5
Oh, darn. I'll go with the non Steve/Master Chief Microsoft rep then.Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x200
Tidus x170
Moogle x165
Nate Adams x150
Shuichi Saihara x126
Alex Mason x125
The Stretchers x120
[Rerate] Ezio x120
150 - 101
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116
D.Va x115
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
[Rerate] Frisk x110
100 - 51
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Billy Hatcher x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Echo: Xion (Sora) x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Sakura Shinguji x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x65
The Terrarian x60
Riptor x60
Concept: Deltarune content x57
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Rocket League rep x55
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Klonoa x50
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x44
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Gooigi x40
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Under 25
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Dr. Goomba Tower x20
Black Shadow x20
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
John Marston x15
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Shuichi Saihara passes Alex Mason and is now in fifth place. Ezio sneaks into the top seven and duels with The Stretchers for the last spot.
The concepts SNES-era Final Fantasy rep and Rocket League rep ride past 50 noms.
Jomosensual You have ten noms yesterday but you didn't have extra noms, so I need you to clarify that (you'd given 5 to Riptor and 5 to a new Microsoft concept)
BowserKing
Smash Lord
Ashley
Chance: 15%. She gets this rating because while she is both an assist trophy and a Mii Costume, her chance rose a a little bit due to spirits becoming playable. Plus she is quite popular and has some uniqueness as well.
Want: 90%. She is definitely my most wanted Warioware Rep. She would totally be fun to play as, and her spells will give her uniqueness amount the cast. I can see her face off against Robin, Zelda and Bayonetta in a free for fall. Overall, Ashely would be a great choice and if there is any characters that would fit as the second Warioware rep, Ashley fits the job.
Issac
Chance: 15%. He gets this rating due to him being both an Assist throphy and a Mii Costume. His chance has increased a bit due to spirits becoming playable, however Issac is an evolving spirit. His chance would have been higher if there was a new Golden Sun game, but we have been surprised before.
Want: 90%. He would totally be fun to play as, and he has tons of unique moves to make him different. Also I can see Issac face off against Hero and Ridley in a free for all, as well as him facing off against Rathalos in his classic mode. Overall, Issac would be a great choice for Smash Bros.
Prediction: Freeman (10%) and Heavy (15%)
Noms: 5 for concept: Second F-Zero Rep, 5 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 5 for Boss: Rayquaza
Chance: 15%. She gets this rating because while she is both an assist trophy and a Mii Costume, her chance rose a a little bit due to spirits becoming playable. Plus she is quite popular and has some uniqueness as well.
Want: 90%. She is definitely my most wanted Warioware Rep. She would totally be fun to play as, and her spells will give her uniqueness amount the cast. I can see her face off against Robin, Zelda and Bayonetta in a free for fall. Overall, Ashely would be a great choice and if there is any characters that would fit as the second Warioware rep, Ashley fits the job.
Issac
Chance: 15%. He gets this rating due to him being both an Assist throphy and a Mii Costume. His chance has increased a bit due to spirits becoming playable, however Issac is an evolving spirit. His chance would have been higher if there was a new Golden Sun game, but we have been surprised before.
Want: 90%. He would totally be fun to play as, and he has tons of unique moves to make him different. Also I can see Issac face off against Hero and Ridley in a free for all, as well as him facing off against Rathalos in his classic mode. Overall, Issac would be a great choice for Smash Bros.
Prediction: Freeman (10%) and Heavy (15%)
Noms: 5 for concept: Second F-Zero Rep, 5 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 5 for Boss: Rayquaza
Isaac
Chance 10%
Hard to really call. During Min Mins presentation, it felt like they went out of their way to avoid saying assist trophies deconfirm. And Isaac is a prime choice for an upgrade for the new world he'd bring with him. Although Golden Sun also hasn't had much spotlight lately and doesn't really have the cult following Banjo had (a character though he's still a pretty popular choice)
Want 40%
Never played Golden Sun, but I'd like to. And I'd like to see the fans happy in this case. Golden Sun is a franchise with 3 games and it felt like they got so close this time around and only just missed it. Kinda like my own personal most wanted so I relate.
Ashley
Chance 0%
Want 30%
She's a cool character, but I consider her pretty low on the totem pole of Upgrading assists. Wario Ware is a cool franchise but isn't exactly begging for a new character. It could get away with one no doubt. But when it comes to a new stage I find it kinda lacking, I'm pretty satisfied with the stages it has now.
Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5
Predictions
Heavy 8%
Freeman 5%
Chance 10%
Hard to really call. During Min Mins presentation, it felt like they went out of their way to avoid saying assist trophies deconfirm. And Isaac is a prime choice for an upgrade for the new world he'd bring with him. Although Golden Sun also hasn't had much spotlight lately and doesn't really have the cult following Banjo had (a character though he's still a pretty popular choice)
Want 40%
Never played Golden Sun, but I'd like to. And I'd like to see the fans happy in this case. Golden Sun is a franchise with 3 games and it felt like they got so close this time around and only just missed it. Kinda like my own personal most wanted so I relate.
Ashley
Chance 0%
Want 30%
She's a cool character, but I consider her pretty low on the totem pole of Upgrading assists. Wario Ware is a cool franchise but isn't exactly begging for a new character. It could get away with one no doubt. But when it comes to a new stage I find it kinda lacking, I'm pretty satisfied with the stages it has now.
Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5
Predictions
Heavy 8%
Freeman 5%
Phoenix Douchebag
Smash Lord
Ravioli Ravioli don't lewd the Lil' Witch Loli (im sorry)
Chance: 1%
Ashley is probably the most popular WarioWare character not called Wario (duh) Nintendo character, from a series that still gets games to this day. She was prominent enough to get unique artwork in Nintendo Badge Arcade crossing over with Monster Hunter. If this was the base game she would actually rank quite high..............but she became an Assist Trophy.
While i do see her making it eventually, the opportunity in this game already has sailed.
Want: 30%
I frimly believe that First Parties in Smash should be always top priority and while i have showcased resentment to certain ones (Namely Sylux and PM) i always am open for new Nintendo characters in general, even if im not a fan of Ashley (and no, it's beause of the lolicon aspect, by that same logic i would dislike Reimu, and while i DON'T Want Reimu in Smash, that's not the main reason) i would think she is decent choice in Smash, and could have happened by now had not the focus of Smash shifted so drastically in the past 3 games.
But even then she's not the main WarioWare character i want, that's Mona. The sweet and charming multitasker who is always second to Wario in every iteration and honestly feels like better mascot and main character for the WarioWare series than even Wario himself.
Chance: 1%
This.............this is just tragic. Golden Sun was far more popular than people give it credit for. in 2001, Golden Sun was released for the GBA, and it was success. For a company that was only known for Mario Sports games, to do this ambitious RPG in a Small System as one of the earliest titles for the system which gave it a huge advantage. It managed to sell a Million Worldwide, something Fire Emblem failed to achieve until Awakening, literally a decade after Smash Bros introduced FE to the world outisde of Japan. Sure all pre-awakening games combined sold better than GS, but Golden Sun 1 ALONE stomped each and one of them individually (Binding Blade, Radiant Dawn, the NES games) and the same thing can be said for the Lost Age. Neither of those 2 were unpopular at all.
Im not saying this as a PP measuring contest, but it shows that Golden Sun had its audience and easily could have made it in Brawl as one of its major roster additions, so why was he just an Assist Trophy? He wasn't unpopular at all in Smash disscussions, in fact the Pre-Brawl era was the peak of Isaac's popularity as a Smash request. Other characters from far (at the time) nicher series like Lucas and Ike got in and yet poor Isaac was not allowed. Olimar had only two games in his belt when he was added in Brawl, and the discrepancy in sales (and presumably popularity) between these two series at the time wasn't exactly noticable.
In 2010, Isaac showed up in a new game: Golden Sun Dark Dawn. It wasn't as successful as the earlier two entries, but that didn' stopped Ike to get in Brawl, and he was still relatively relevant of a character as much as Little Mac who also had a game released in a close timeframe to Isaac and got in Smash 4, so one would think maybe this time Isaac could get his chance since Golden Sun still had an aura of popularity. Instad, his Assist Trophy didn't return and didn't even had a trophy, which many (inlcuding myself) saw it as a positive for Isaac's possible inclusion as DLC..................it didn't happened. Come Smash Ult and his exclusion as an Assist Trophy wasn't as surprising this time around..............that wasn't until the Nov Direct where he was shown as an AT, they waited for literally the last possible second to show him as an AT. It was supposed to be a "throw the dog a bone" moment for Isaac fans who were holding for him, but it felt more like a kick to the ballsack in what in my opinion was, and still is the worst Smash Direct ever.
If this was Smash Brawl and 4, i would have given Isaac a far larger score. Hell i remember giving Isaac a 40% Chance in 2015, i was that optimistic of him. It was a mistake some will tell me, but i don't regret it. You would think a franchise that managed to achieve this level of success DESPITE coming from an unprove developer, DESPITE lacking major advertising and marketing sans that one commercial with the weird Dragon Chandeliere-thingy, and most important of all, DESPITE having no presence in Smash at all at the time of the release of the first 2 games (Brawl was the first time Golden Sun was ever referenced)
So what happun'?
Well i believe it's one reason, and one reason only: The development team behind GS, Camelot. First, the major mistake of waiting until the last days of the DS's lifetime to make a Golden Sun game was a BAAAAAAAAD choice. Golden Sun's timing was one of the major contributors to its success. It was simple, basic, yet very fun and friendly to newcomers and the ide of launching it as one of the early titles of the GBA was a genius move. By the time Dark Dawn came on the DS, there was Pokemon Diamond, Pearl, Platinum, HeartGold, SoulSilver hell even ****ING Black and White. There's also other RPGs like Mario & Luigi Parthners in Time, Bowser's Inside Story, Final Fantasy 3, etc. Golden Sun couldn't compete in such an oversaturated market.
The other one beign well.............i don't think Camelot is that well regarded as a developer. Not now and even maybe not even back then. They are not hated at all but clearly they are not at the top of the prioirity of developers. Olimar may have had 2 games and was very niche, but it was one of Miyamoto's Brain Children and anyone who dares defy the word of the all mighty Miyamoto is 99% percent wrong. FE literally struggled to survive for ****ing 12 games but Sakurai is a FE fanboy and close associate of IS so special preference they get. You can also see this in other developers who work for and/or work closely to Nintendo. Despite Rare literally beign gone since 2002, it's clear people at Nintendo still have an attachment to the brand, as evident by K.Rool and ESPECIALLY Banjo's trailer. I could go on and on but i think i made my point. The more i think of Earthbound the less i understand why it's even featured this much in Smash when it's absurdly small in the grand scheme of things (HOT TAKE: Mother would haven't gotten its popularity if it wasn't featured in Smash, in a world where Both Golden Sun and Mother had no characters in Smash, im 100% Golden Sun would be talked about more, because it actually managed to be more successful on its own) but the fact that Sakurai seems to be close associates with Itoi is honestly suscpicious to me. Im gonna be blunt here and say that if Golden Sun was made by IS, we would have seen Isaac by now. Some developer teams are better regarded than others. Isaac's moveset potential, his fan demand, nothing of it matters. He ended up suffering the same fate as Chibi Robo, Custom Robo, and other Nintendo C-Stars despite Isaac agruably beign far more popular in his prime than any of them (no offense to these awesome underdogs though)
Camelot, despite having a good selling game series on their hands, couldn't escape the mantra of beign "the company who makes Mario Sports games and created Walugi", then they make a mistake with the series ONCE (releasing a game far too late into a console's lifespan) everything Golden Sun related came crumbling down, and became a shadow of its former self. Back to nothing but Mario Sports.
Now all Isaac has is beign a video game character. Golden Sun is..................dead. The interest for a revival is there, but the people behind the games either have no interest, or resources, or even both.
Want: 100(000000000)%
This breaks my heart. Isaac was one of my most wanted in Smash 4, and is one of the reasons why i do look fondly to Smash speculation (specifically the pre-release era of Smash 4) I was interesed in Golden Sun and so i played it and the Lost Age. These 2 have managed to become two of my favorite games not just as RPGS, not just of the GBA, but one of my favorite games in general. They represent memories and and escapism for what was for me a sort of dark year for me due to the uncertain future i had ahead (of course, compared to 2020, 2015 is a ****ing godsend) and was THE time Smash introduced me to a series i originally was not interesed in, and it's the one that had stuck out the most.
If i got to choose which character i would want to put in Smash, it would be Isaac? Why? I want Isaac in Smash for one reason specifically, so that the character and his franchise don't become forgotten. Banjo will not get a game anytime soon, but i can always give him a go in Smash. Captain Falcon is in hibernation but Smash keeps him awake. Mother will never get a new game again but its legacy lives on not only in the spiritual inspirations like Undertale and LISA, but in Smash too.
Isaac? I don't think he's even gonna be an AT by the next game. The fanbase will simply give up or and its members will move onto another franchises that haven't been left as corpses. Hell that almost happened in Smash 4, and if it wasn't by the demand of Isaac as a playable character, we wouldn't have even gotten his Assist Trophy in Ultimate. It's the best he got. Bandanna Dee, Waluigi, Captain Toad, hell even Dixie Kong will likely somehow survive into the next console generation and could get in Smash, but Isaac died in the last gen.
It's ironic to see a character like Simon, someone who i saw as a borderline-impossible dream for me in Smash, made it into the game in the exact way i wanted him, while Isaac, a character i considered marginally possible, is pretty much a forgotten relic now.
I apologize if i don't speak too much of the character himself. He's pretty damn neat. While a basic silent protagonist sword wielder, he is also a Venus Adept who can use Earth Magic, basically an Earthbender. We have seen millions of Fire Users and Ice Users in fiction and media, not just Smash, and seeing a character who uses Earth Powers in a major capicity, even if its a sword user (Isaac's swordplay isn't anything super-unique) would be great breath of fresh air.
But that's not going to happen, Golden Sun is dead now, and even if ATs were somehow to get promotions, i expect Waluigi, Bomberman, hell even Lyn before Isaac even becomes an idea that crosses Sakurai's mind. Golden Sun is gone forever, and no trademarks or fake rumors will ever change that. It's too late now. Maybe it's better that way, i would rather see a franchise and series die instead of becoming something i actively dislike such as the modern Paper Mario games or Netflix's adaptation of Castlevania. (im afraid of the Clone High Reboot) but the fact that Isaac missed the boat on joining the Smash roster possibly forever is something that still pops on in my brain. I would gladly trade Fighter Pass 1 AND 2 for the remaining Grinch Leak characters because that includes Isaac.
He may have still some major support, but if that support could NOT help you get in Smash in your prime, it's not gonna change anything now.
Im sorry if i sound too melodramatic about a japanese RPG character not becoming playable in a Party game........actually no let's make it even more dramatic with music:
Goodnight, sweet prince. The sun has set, forever.
Chance: 1%
Ashley is probably the most popular WarioWare character not called Wario (duh) Nintendo character, from a series that still gets games to this day. She was prominent enough to get unique artwork in Nintendo Badge Arcade crossing over with Monster Hunter. If this was the base game she would actually rank quite high..............but she became an Assist Trophy.
While i do see her making it eventually, the opportunity in this game already has sailed.
Want: 30%
I frimly believe that First Parties in Smash should be always top priority and while i have showcased resentment to certain ones (Namely Sylux and PM) i always am open for new Nintendo characters in general, even if im not a fan of Ashley (and no, it's beause of the lolicon aspect, by that same logic i would dislike Reimu, and while i DON'T Want Reimu in Smash, that's not the main reason) i would think she is decent choice in Smash, and could have happened by now had not the focus of Smash shifted so drastically in the past 3 games.
But even then she's not the main WarioWare character i want, that's Mona. The sweet and charming multitasker who is always second to Wario in every iteration and honestly feels like better mascot and main character for the WarioWare series than even Wario himself.
Chance: 1%
This.............this is just tragic. Golden Sun was far more popular than people give it credit for. in 2001, Golden Sun was released for the GBA, and it was success. For a company that was only known for Mario Sports games, to do this ambitious RPG in a Small System as one of the earliest titles for the system which gave it a huge advantage. It managed to sell a Million Worldwide, something Fire Emblem failed to achieve until Awakening, literally a decade after Smash Bros introduced FE to the world outisde of Japan. Sure all pre-awakening games combined sold better than GS, but Golden Sun 1 ALONE stomped each and one of them individually (Binding Blade, Radiant Dawn, the NES games) and the same thing can be said for the Lost Age. Neither of those 2 were unpopular at all.
Im not saying this as a PP measuring contest, but it shows that Golden Sun had its audience and easily could have made it in Brawl as one of its major roster additions, so why was he just an Assist Trophy? He wasn't unpopular at all in Smash disscussions, in fact the Pre-Brawl era was the peak of Isaac's popularity as a Smash request. Other characters from far (at the time) nicher series like Lucas and Ike got in and yet poor Isaac was not allowed. Olimar had only two games in his belt when he was added in Brawl, and the discrepancy in sales (and presumably popularity) between these two series at the time wasn't exactly noticable.
In 2010, Isaac showed up in a new game: Golden Sun Dark Dawn. It wasn't as successful as the earlier two entries, but that didn' stopped Ike to get in Brawl, and he was still relatively relevant of a character as much as Little Mac who also had a game released in a close timeframe to Isaac and got in Smash 4, so one would think maybe this time Isaac could get his chance since Golden Sun still had an aura of popularity. Instad, his Assist Trophy didn't return and didn't even had a trophy, which many (inlcuding myself) saw it as a positive for Isaac's possible inclusion as DLC..................it didn't happened. Come Smash Ult and his exclusion as an Assist Trophy wasn't as surprising this time around..............that wasn't until the Nov Direct where he was shown as an AT, they waited for literally the last possible second to show him as an AT. It was supposed to be a "throw the dog a bone" moment for Isaac fans who were holding for him, but it felt more like a kick to the ballsack in what in my opinion was, and still is the worst Smash Direct ever.
If this was Smash Brawl and 4, i would have given Isaac a far larger score. Hell i remember giving Isaac a 40% Chance in 2015, i was that optimistic of him. It was a mistake some will tell me, but i don't regret it. You would think a franchise that managed to achieve this level of success DESPITE coming from an unprove developer, DESPITE lacking major advertising and marketing sans that one commercial with the weird Dragon Chandeliere-thingy, and most important of all, DESPITE having no presence in Smash at all at the time of the release of the first 2 games (Brawl was the first time Golden Sun was ever referenced)
So what happun'?
Well i believe it's one reason, and one reason only: The development team behind GS, Camelot. First, the major mistake of waiting until the last days of the DS's lifetime to make a Golden Sun game was a BAAAAAAAAD choice. Golden Sun's timing was one of the major contributors to its success. It was simple, basic, yet very fun and friendly to newcomers and the ide of launching it as one of the early titles of the GBA was a genius move. By the time Dark Dawn came on the DS, there was Pokemon Diamond, Pearl, Platinum, HeartGold, SoulSilver hell even ****ING Black and White. There's also other RPGs like Mario & Luigi Parthners in Time, Bowser's Inside Story, Final Fantasy 3, etc. Golden Sun couldn't compete in such an oversaturated market.
The other one beign well.............i don't think Camelot is that well regarded as a developer. Not now and even maybe not even back then. They are not hated at all but clearly they are not at the top of the prioirity of developers. Olimar may have had 2 games and was very niche, but it was one of Miyamoto's Brain Children and anyone who dares defy the word of the all mighty Miyamoto is 99% percent wrong. FE literally struggled to survive for ****ing 12 games but Sakurai is a FE fanboy and close associate of IS so special preference they get. You can also see this in other developers who work for and/or work closely to Nintendo. Despite Rare literally beign gone since 2002, it's clear people at Nintendo still have an attachment to the brand, as evident by K.Rool and ESPECIALLY Banjo's trailer. I could go on and on but i think i made my point. The more i think of Earthbound the less i understand why it's even featured this much in Smash when it's absurdly small in the grand scheme of things (HOT TAKE: Mother would haven't gotten its popularity if it wasn't featured in Smash, in a world where Both Golden Sun and Mother had no characters in Smash, im 100% Golden Sun would be talked about more, because it actually managed to be more successful on its own) but the fact that Sakurai seems to be close associates with Itoi is honestly suscpicious to me. Im gonna be blunt here and say that if Golden Sun was made by IS, we would have seen Isaac by now. Some developer teams are better regarded than others. Isaac's moveset potential, his fan demand, nothing of it matters. He ended up suffering the same fate as Chibi Robo, Custom Robo, and other Nintendo C-Stars despite Isaac agruably beign far more popular in his prime than any of them (no offense to these awesome underdogs though)
Camelot, despite having a good selling game series on their hands, couldn't escape the mantra of beign "the company who makes Mario Sports games and created Walugi", then they make a mistake with the series ONCE (releasing a game far too late into a console's lifespan) everything Golden Sun related came crumbling down, and became a shadow of its former self. Back to nothing but Mario Sports.
Now all Isaac has is beign a video game character. Golden Sun is..................dead. The interest for a revival is there, but the people behind the games either have no interest, or resources, or even both.
Want: 100(000000000)%
This breaks my heart. Isaac was one of my most wanted in Smash 4, and is one of the reasons why i do look fondly to Smash speculation (specifically the pre-release era of Smash 4) I was interesed in Golden Sun and so i played it and the Lost Age. These 2 have managed to become two of my favorite games not just as RPGS, not just of the GBA, but one of my favorite games in general. They represent memories and and escapism for what was for me a sort of dark year for me due to the uncertain future i had ahead (of course, compared to 2020, 2015 is a ****ing godsend) and was THE time Smash introduced me to a series i originally was not interesed in, and it's the one that had stuck out the most.
If i got to choose which character i would want to put in Smash, it would be Isaac? Why? I want Isaac in Smash for one reason specifically, so that the character and his franchise don't become forgotten. Banjo will not get a game anytime soon, but i can always give him a go in Smash. Captain Falcon is in hibernation but Smash keeps him awake. Mother will never get a new game again but its legacy lives on not only in the spiritual inspirations like Undertale and LISA, but in Smash too.
Isaac? I don't think he's even gonna be an AT by the next game. The fanbase will simply give up or and its members will move onto another franchises that haven't been left as corpses. Hell that almost happened in Smash 4, and if it wasn't by the demand of Isaac as a playable character, we wouldn't have even gotten his Assist Trophy in Ultimate. It's the best he got. Bandanna Dee, Waluigi, Captain Toad, hell even Dixie Kong will likely somehow survive into the next console generation and could get in Smash, but Isaac died in the last gen.
It's ironic to see a character like Simon, someone who i saw as a borderline-impossible dream for me in Smash, made it into the game in the exact way i wanted him, while Isaac, a character i considered marginally possible, is pretty much a forgotten relic now.
I apologize if i don't speak too much of the character himself. He's pretty damn neat. While a basic silent protagonist sword wielder, he is also a Venus Adept who can use Earth Magic, basically an Earthbender. We have seen millions of Fire Users and Ice Users in fiction and media, not just Smash, and seeing a character who uses Earth Powers in a major capicity, even if its a sword user (Isaac's swordplay isn't anything super-unique) would be great breath of fresh air.
But that's not going to happen, Golden Sun is dead now, and even if ATs were somehow to get promotions, i expect Waluigi, Bomberman, hell even Lyn before Isaac even becomes an idea that crosses Sakurai's mind. Golden Sun is gone forever, and no trademarks or fake rumors will ever change that. It's too late now. Maybe it's better that way, i would rather see a franchise and series die instead of becoming something i actively dislike such as the modern Paper Mario games or Netflix's adaptation of Castlevania. (im afraid of the Clone High Reboot) but the fact that Isaac missed the boat on joining the Smash roster possibly forever is something that still pops on in my brain. I would gladly trade Fighter Pass 1 AND 2 for the remaining Grinch Leak characters because that includes Isaac.
He may have still some major support, but if that support could NOT help you get in Smash in your prime, it's not gonna change anything now.
Im sorry if i sound too melodramatic about a japanese RPG character not becoming playable in a Party game........actually no let's make it even more dramatic with music:
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SargeAbernathy
Smash Apprentice
- Joined
- Oct 2, 2018
- Messages
- 100
I abstain from Ashley.
Isaac
Chance: 4%
Of all the assist trophies I feel like Isaac is on top of the list for upgrade potential. Isaac has a lot going for him. His popularity during speculation remained healthy for quite some time.
It boils down to if they are willing to do it. It certainly is a possibility that they left one or two "empty" slots to later fill with a fan favorite character from speculation. However, I don't think that is highly likely. It would have to be a Nintendo character, as any last minute third party character would require contracts and negotiations about music, payment, etc.
Isaac's chance would have to hinge on this idea. But, I personally think they've narrowed down and know exactly which fighters they'd want for all 11 passes. I think they knew a long time ago.
Want: 100% I'd love to see Billybo10k freak out on camera. A lot of people would freak out. And it'd start the hype train of a possible reboot to the series.
Isaac
Chance: 4%
Of all the assist trophies I feel like Isaac is on top of the list for upgrade potential. Isaac has a lot going for him. His popularity during speculation remained healthy for quite some time.
It boils down to if they are willing to do it. It certainly is a possibility that they left one or two "empty" slots to later fill with a fan favorite character from speculation. However, I don't think that is highly likely. It would have to be a Nintendo character, as any last minute third party character would require contracts and negotiations about music, payment, etc.
Isaac's chance would have to hinge on this idea. But, I personally think they've narrowed down and know exactly which fighters they'd want for all 11 passes. I think they knew a long time ago.
Want: 100% I'd love to see Billybo10k freak out on camera. A lot of people would freak out. And it'd start the hype train of a possible reboot to the series.
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ArkSPiTFirE
Smash Journeyman
The hype train has already started! Since the Assist Trophy announcement the Golden Sun community has run a Golden Sunday (Twitter event to celebrate the series) four times now since 2018. So they ought to have noticed back then, it's why we're a bit more optimistic this time round. But we'll wait and see.
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AceAttorney9000
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2019
- Messages
- 1,881
- House of the Rising Sun
- Chance: 50%
- Min Min getting in as the playable ARMS over Spring Man would've been the perfect opportunity to acknowledge whether or not Assist Trophies deconfirm... and yet, Sakurai said nothing. I get that Min Min was picked because she was the fan favorite and because Yabuki said "Everyone Is A Protagonist!", but if Spring Man wasn't getting in anyway due to his Assist Trophy status, you'd think they'd just come out and say it... and while I don't think that necessarily answers the "Do Assist Trophies deconfirm until next game?" question definitively, it does make me lean towards the answer being "no"... which is nothing if not a positive for Isaac's chances. Add in the sizable fan demand he's got (including the eventual backlash against his Assist Trophy reveal in the infamous November 1st Direct), and I think he's got a decent chance. Really, Isaac's biggest obstacles I think are... well, Waluigi, a character with even more fan demand and the advantage of being a Mario character, and the fact that Golden Sun is more or less dormant right now. Still, being from a dormant franchise didn't stop Banjo-Kazooie from being playable. Plus, I think Waluigi will be the one who ultimate breaks the Assist Trophy rule once and for... but in the event they still refuse to make Waluigi playable, or they do make him playable and decide to promote another Assist Trophy, I definitely think Isaac is next in line.
- Want: 70%
- I'll admit, I'm not too familiar with Golden Sun, other than Isaac and his psychic abilities to conjure up giant green Bayonetta hands. Still, that description alone just makes me want playable Isaac just for the fun potential. Plus, he's a huge fan favorite that a lot of people have wanted since at least Brawl, so I'd like to see him as a "character to make other people happy" pick.
- Chance: 50%
- Ashley Spinelli
- Chance: 25%
- The part about Min Min and the lack of "Do Assist Trophies deconfirm until next game?" answers also applies to Ashley, who also has the advantage of being part of the still alive and ongoing WarioWare series, which will most likely be getting an eventual Switch game... unfortunately, while she does have fan demand, it's not on the same level as Isaac and Waluigi. Add in competition from other Assist Trophies like Lyn, Bomberman, Shadow, and Shovel Knight, and Ashley's got some stiff chances.
- Want: 45%
- I like Ashley well enough, and I'd be fine with her becoming playable. Her microgames in WarioWare: Touched! were some of my favorites in that game, and it'd be neat to see said microgames be used for her moveset. Still... there's other characters I'd rather have. Just with WarioWare alone, I think Mona and Kat & Ana (the latter being Assist Trophies in previous Smash games but are now absent in Ultimate) would be better choices. And if we're going with Wario characters in general, there's also Captain Syrup for that much-needed Wario Land representation (you can't ignore the fans on that one forever, Nintendo!), and of course, the big lanky purple elephant in the room...
- Chance: 25%
jamesster445
Smash Lord
- Joined
- May 7, 2015
- Messages
- 1,136
Isaac
Chance: 30
Want: 50%
Ashley
Chance: 20%
Want: 40%
I'm pretty neutral on both of these two. Isaac is a little more interesting in the grand scheme, thanks to him effectively being an Earth bender. However I'm not going to hold my breath for either of these two. They are Assist Trophies and so far we have not had any reason to believe that they can be promoted. Isaac has had a more vocal fanbase both before and after his deconfirmation so I think he would have a better chance of a promotion.
Nominations: Jin Kazama x5
Chance: 30
Want: 50%
Ashley
Chance: 20%
Want: 40%
I'm pretty neutral on both of these two. Isaac is a little more interesting in the grand scheme, thanks to him effectively being an Earth bender. However I'm not going to hold my breath for either of these two. They are Assist Trophies and so far we have not had any reason to believe that they can be promoted. Isaac has had a more vocal fanbase both before and after his deconfirmation so I think he would have a better chance of a promotion.
Nominations: Jin Kazama x5
QcSlayer
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2018
- Messages
- 244
I know this is very long, and I'd be very happy if you could read it, putting your bias aside.
About Isaac's chances, id say he's at least 60% probable, why?
I have good reasons to believe that a new Golden Sun is happening for the Switch, in the last 2 years, many trademarks were deposited, even for countries like Korea, were the game was never released. Why spend money for a trademark from a dead series in countries were the game should never be available?
Furthermore, so far, some insiders like Nate Drake said that Golf wasn't happening, and we are certainly not getting two tennis games in a row. Camelot usually takes maximum 2 years between each of their sport release. Even in a weird year like this one, we should have known about Golf since the Mars direct. Maybe I'm wrong and Nintendo likes to throw away money. If during the Direct next week no game is shown from Camelot, then it gotta be a new IP, or Golden Sun. (Nintendo added private videos in their playlist today if you were unaware + Min Min new tag on the website was remove, meaning we are getting a reveal soon, Byleth was up for months).
I'd say the chances of getting Golden Sun on Switch during Fighter pass 2 are around 80%.
Now for those of you who says AT disconfirm characters, Nintendo is a business, they'll do just like they did with Byleth. Do you sincerelly think that they won't add a character in the 2nd pass because he is an AT to promote their incoming games? Remember the "Spirit deconfirm rule" well, that aged well.
If it was Fighter Pass 1, I'd 100% say that behing an AT disconfirm a character, but pass 2 wasn't planned back then.
Remember that the deal for Banjo was made during E3 2018, 5 Months before release? Wouldn't it be logical for Nintendo to have backup characters for the pass in case they couldn't seal a deal?
Now take a look at bloody november, were the Grinch leak was proven false.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fccgHnBQ0YM
Near 22:30 we see Isaac, then a little later, Spring Man.
Why wait so long to deconfirm one of the most popular character?
What if Isaac and Spring Man were actually backup in case they couldn't get a third party?
Since they had their 5 characters and they didn't know if they would do a second pass, they put them in the game at the last minute has AT.
Isaac is the only AT who missed Smash 4 to come back in Ultimate.
He is the only AT with a new moveset.
He probably place high on the poll.
Golden Sun's got 8 Spirits despite not having a playable character.
Rhythm Heaven is the serie without playable characters who got the most spirit
Golden Sun is Second.
What I'm trying to say here is that Golden Sun must have had some weight on the ballot.
So why no new music track? The composer of the serie works on Super Smash.
Maybe because it was consider for DLC.
I know that a lot of things I just said is no evidence, but Isaac is, without a doubt, a highly special case among the other AT.
Conclusion: It's hard to believe that if a new game is happening during pass 2, Isaac won't make it because he is an AT.
Thank you for your time.
Want 100%
About Isaac's chances, id say he's at least 60% probable, why?
I have good reasons to believe that a new Golden Sun is happening for the Switch, in the last 2 years, many trademarks were deposited, even for countries like Korea, were the game was never released. Why spend money for a trademark from a dead series in countries were the game should never be available?
Furthermore, so far, some insiders like Nate Drake said that Golf wasn't happening, and we are certainly not getting two tennis games in a row. Camelot usually takes maximum 2 years between each of their sport release. Even in a weird year like this one, we should have known about Golf since the Mars direct. Maybe I'm wrong and Nintendo likes to throw away money. If during the Direct next week no game is shown from Camelot, then it gotta be a new IP, or Golden Sun. (Nintendo added private videos in their playlist today if you were unaware + Min Min new tag on the website was remove, meaning we are getting a reveal soon, Byleth was up for months).
I'd say the chances of getting Golden Sun on Switch during Fighter pass 2 are around 80%.
Now for those of you who says AT disconfirm characters, Nintendo is a business, they'll do just like they did with Byleth. Do you sincerelly think that they won't add a character in the 2nd pass because he is an AT to promote their incoming games? Remember the "Spirit deconfirm rule" well, that aged well.
If it was Fighter Pass 1, I'd 100% say that behing an AT disconfirm a character, but pass 2 wasn't planned back then.
Remember that the deal for Banjo was made during E3 2018, 5 Months before release? Wouldn't it be logical for Nintendo to have backup characters for the pass in case they couldn't seal a deal?
Now take a look at bloody november, were the Grinch leak was proven false.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fccgHnBQ0YM
Near 22:30 we see Isaac, then a little later, Spring Man.
Why wait so long to deconfirm one of the most popular character?
What if Isaac and Spring Man were actually backup in case they couldn't get a third party?
Since they had their 5 characters and they didn't know if they would do a second pass, they put them in the game at the last minute has AT.
Isaac is the only AT who missed Smash 4 to come back in Ultimate.
He is the only AT with a new moveset.
He probably place high on the poll.
Golden Sun's got 8 Spirits despite not having a playable character.
Rhythm Heaven is the serie without playable characters who got the most spirit
Golden Sun is Second.
What I'm trying to say here is that Golden Sun must have had some weight on the ballot.
So why no new music track? The composer of the serie works on Super Smash.
Maybe because it was consider for DLC.
I know that a lot of things I just said is no evidence, but Isaac is, without a doubt, a highly special case among the other AT.
Conclusion: It's hard to believe that if a new game is happening during pass 2, Isaac won't make it because he is an AT.
Thank you for your time.
Want 100%
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He laughs
Chance: 15%
With Min Min things aren't looking up for Assists. Completely dodging around Springman and Ribbon Girl for Min Min and Ninjara is kind of damning is it not?
That said, Sakurai did mention something about vol. 2 in trying to please fans in trailers past. Waluigi is probably the most likely AT promotion if any but the madman is well known for subverting expectations. Not even two reveals ago over half the community was absolutely zealous that only 3rd parties were DLC and Spirits were deemed unworthy of ever being playable in Ultimate.
While Waluigi is probably the most likely promotion, I could see a dark horse in a character like Isaac. He was arguably the most requested first party character, at least until that theory fiasco.
Want: 30%
Another JRPG I have no attachment to. Oh well, at least it would feel good for some of his fans after seeing all the crap they underwent.
Pantalones Giganticus!
Chance: 5%
Same deal but significantly more dimished.
Want: Abstain
If I want anything from Wario Whatever, I'll take Captain Syrup.
Please and thank you.
Chance: 15%
With Min Min things aren't looking up for Assists. Completely dodging around Springman and Ribbon Girl for Min Min and Ninjara is kind of damning is it not?
That said, Sakurai did mention something about vol. 2 in trying to please fans in trailers past. Waluigi is probably the most likely AT promotion if any but the madman is well known for subverting expectations. Not even two reveals ago over half the community was absolutely zealous that only 3rd parties were DLC and Spirits were deemed unworthy of ever being playable in Ultimate.
While Waluigi is probably the most likely promotion, I could see a dark horse in a character like Isaac. He was arguably the most requested first party character, at least until that theory fiasco.
Want: 30%
Another JRPG I have no attachment to. Oh well, at least it would feel good for some of his fans after seeing all the crap they underwent.
Pantalones Giganticus!
Chance: 5%
Same deal but significantly more dimished.
Want: Abstain
If I want anything from Wario Whatever, I'll take Captain Syrup.
Please and thank you.
WaddleMatt
Smash Lord
I really don't get why almost every post here has said Waluigi is the most likely Assist upgrade, he isn't even the most wanted character who is one and is literal Mario spin-off fodder in Nintendo's eyes.
waddledeeonredyoshi
Smash Lord
Maybe not within the Smash bubble but I think it's undeniable Waluigi is more wanted than Isaac amongst the casual audience.
Glaciacott
Smash Lord
Ashley
Chance - 1%
I honestly want to go lower, but at this rate non-zero chance is realistic for most characters. Still, given how wario ware hasn't exactly been treated like a super high-profile franchise (with the latest being download only outside japan iirc), it would make zero sense to me to promote this character in a DLC pass.
Along that, if they did want to promote something of this degree of fame, I would assume Rhythm Heaven would make more sense as it is an unrepresented franchise with a severe lack of content in smash. Wario Ware is fine in terms of stages and songs.
Want - 50%
I do like Ashley and she's the type of character I would enjoy seeing in the roster. I just don't see it happening, and the half of me that doesn't want her to happen is because I see Rhythm Heaven to fall into a similar niche and I would much rather see that series get some love.
Isaac
Chance - 5%
Reading what other people have to say, and no, I still don't think the character is that likely. Trademarks or not, I am much more on the pessimistic side of things and will not believe there's a new Golden Sun happening until it gets announced and has a launch window. Going beyond that, a new Golden Sun happening does not necessarily mean we'll get him as a character, and while that would make sense we have to take into account the sheer amount of characters that can potentially happen in this pass.
I will agree that Isaac is one of the more popular first parties, and I could see a timeline in which we get him due to the dev team being aware of his popularity. BUT, his popularity simply does not reach the levels of the ones that have happened, like K. Rool, Ridley and Banjo, as best evidence by the fact he was made an AT. And while we could speculate all day about secret plans and possible reasons for having him be revealed as one of the last ATs, to me the simpler conclusion is that the team was happy enough with him as an AT in the base game and the decision to have him be in DLC pass 2 will be made independent of this.
Honestly, considering the current situation, him being possible is a huge thing to ask for a character disconfirmed before. And while I would never tell people to give up hope, considering far unlikelier things have happened by now, I do think rating this character over 50% is super optimistic and setting yourself up for disappointment.
Also yes, of course Waluigi is more likely due to popularity. I mean come on guys, I know we love isaac here in smashboards but there is no way that random 10yo johnny and his family will be more likely to recognize Isaac over Waluigi. Not to mention that the huge stink over Waluigi being an AT was stupidly visible even to people who DON'T play Smash or Nintendo games... Waluigi is easily more likely to have more marketing impact and from that alone he's extremely more likely to be the one to break the assist trophy rule.
Want - 75%
All things considered though, I would not mind being wrong and the optimism displayed by others to be rewarded. Golden Sun coming back AND Isaac making it in Smash would be great and well-deserved for such a good game series. The stage and music would be phenomenal and while I don't expect to use Isaac, it would be cool to see him in the roster.
However, keeping him away from higher want since I personally would prefer many other characters out there and ultimately there really are only 5 spots left. And he's already an assist trophy so at the very least he's already in there somewhere with one of his songs, whereas, again, rhythm heaven has two songs and barely anything else. Or xenoblade chronicles X having ZERO songs. I'll happily sacrifice any AT getting promoted if it means we expand the world, stages, songs and properties present in Smash.
Chance - 1%
I honestly want to go lower, but at this rate non-zero chance is realistic for most characters. Still, given how wario ware hasn't exactly been treated like a super high-profile franchise (with the latest being download only outside japan iirc), it would make zero sense to me to promote this character in a DLC pass.
Along that, if they did want to promote something of this degree of fame, I would assume Rhythm Heaven would make more sense as it is an unrepresented franchise with a severe lack of content in smash. Wario Ware is fine in terms of stages and songs.
Want - 50%
I do like Ashley and she's the type of character I would enjoy seeing in the roster. I just don't see it happening, and the half of me that doesn't want her to happen is because I see Rhythm Heaven to fall into a similar niche and I would much rather see that series get some love.
Isaac
Chance - 5%
Reading what other people have to say, and no, I still don't think the character is that likely. Trademarks or not, I am much more on the pessimistic side of things and will not believe there's a new Golden Sun happening until it gets announced and has a launch window. Going beyond that, a new Golden Sun happening does not necessarily mean we'll get him as a character, and while that would make sense we have to take into account the sheer amount of characters that can potentially happen in this pass.
I will agree that Isaac is one of the more popular first parties, and I could see a timeline in which we get him due to the dev team being aware of his popularity. BUT, his popularity simply does not reach the levels of the ones that have happened, like K. Rool, Ridley and Banjo, as best evidence by the fact he was made an AT. And while we could speculate all day about secret plans and possible reasons for having him be revealed as one of the last ATs, to me the simpler conclusion is that the team was happy enough with him as an AT in the base game and the decision to have him be in DLC pass 2 will be made independent of this.
Honestly, considering the current situation, him being possible is a huge thing to ask for a character disconfirmed before. And while I would never tell people to give up hope, considering far unlikelier things have happened by now, I do think rating this character over 50% is super optimistic and setting yourself up for disappointment.
Also yes, of course Waluigi is more likely due to popularity. I mean come on guys, I know we love isaac here in smashboards but there is no way that random 10yo johnny and his family will be more likely to recognize Isaac over Waluigi. Not to mention that the huge stink over Waluigi being an AT was stupidly visible even to people who DON'T play Smash or Nintendo games... Waluigi is easily more likely to have more marketing impact and from that alone he's extremely more likely to be the one to break the assist trophy rule.
Want - 75%
All things considered though, I would not mind being wrong and the optimism displayed by others to be rewarded. Golden Sun coming back AND Isaac making it in Smash would be great and well-deserved for such a good game series. The stage and music would be phenomenal and while I don't expect to use Isaac, it would be cool to see him in the roster.
However, keeping him away from higher want since I personally would prefer many other characters out there and ultimately there really are only 5 spots left. And he's already an assist trophy so at the very least he's already in there somewhere with one of his songs, whereas, again, rhythm heaven has two songs and barely anything else. Or xenoblade chronicles X having ZERO songs. I'll happily sacrifice any AT getting promoted if it means we expand the world, stages, songs and properties present in Smash.
WeirdChillFever
Smash Hero
I like to Move it, Move it
Chance: 20%
Since Golden Sun possibly has a new game on the horizon and Isaac enjoys great support means he got a possibly potent mix of factors, and the representation it has in base-game is similar to ARMS, but so far it‘s mostly speculation and without a grip on what Sakurai knows about the Golden Sun-anigans apparently going on and the fact the game is in rumour territory, he’s so far still an AT from a dormant franchise. Still, 1/5th is a generous assessment and probably top 10 most likely first parties, though half of that is because of hints towards a new game that may or may not happen and may or may not get the nod in Smash with Isaac as playable in both.
Want: 50%
I’m not in-the-loop so to me he’s not that exciting. Plus, we got I-don’t-know-how-many RPG protagonists last pass so I’m not too psyched about another one. Still, I acknowledge his potential moveset-wise.
Oh no, not again
Chance: 5%
Ashley’s support base got real quiet after being ATd, while nothing changed in terms of her own resume. Still a popular pick that got quite the support before she got the AT in Ult, but by far not one of the likelier ones to make the jump, with her series dormant and hay-day in most ways being behind her.
Want: 60%
Mages are fun, and she could bring a cartoonier flair to Smash that’s not lacking per se, but would be refreshing none-the-less. The dynamic with Red might be like half of the score here though.
Dr. Goomba Tower x5
Chance: 20%
Since Golden Sun possibly has a new game on the horizon and Isaac enjoys great support means he got a possibly potent mix of factors, and the representation it has in base-game is similar to ARMS, but so far it‘s mostly speculation and without a grip on what Sakurai knows about the Golden Sun-anigans apparently going on and the fact the game is in rumour territory, he’s so far still an AT from a dormant franchise. Still, 1/5th is a generous assessment and probably top 10 most likely first parties, though half of that is because of hints towards a new game that may or may not happen and may or may not get the nod in Smash with Isaac as playable in both.
Want: 50%
I’m not in-the-loop so to me he’s not that exciting. Plus, we got I-don’t-know-how-many RPG protagonists last pass so I’m not too psyched about another one. Still, I acknowledge his potential moveset-wise.
Oh no, not again
Chance: 5%
Ashley’s support base got real quiet after being ATd, while nothing changed in terms of her own resume. Still a popular pick that got quite the support before she got the AT in Ult, but by far not one of the likelier ones to make the jump, with her series dormant and hay-day in most ways being behind her.
Want: 60%
Mages are fun, and she could bring a cartoonier flair to Smash that’s not lacking per se, but would be refreshing none-the-less. The dynamic with Red might be like half of the score here though.
Dr. Goomba Tower x5
Waluigi’s return to AT status managed to cause enough uproar to make headlines during the blowout reveal of Smash Ultimate at E3. Saying he might not be the most wanted is fair, since Isaac is pretty close, but to say it with such confidence is biased, especially since he scored higher than Isaac on the Mega Smash poll (albeit with a relatively small margin)
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self entitlement
WaddleMatt
Smash Lord
Yes, I'd agree here. I was talking about the Smash speculation audience but even then its not like we exactly know the casual wants.
Mega Smash poll? Is that the Source Gaming one?
How?
WeirdChillFever
Smash Hero
That’s the Source Gaming one, yeah
Diddy Kong
Smash Obsessed
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Isaac:
Chances: 45%
Very popular and requested, even since Smash 4 he's got a lot of popular support even as big as characters that made the final cut, as Little Mac, Roy and Shulk. His chances aren't raised with the choice of Min Min as an ARMS Fighter as I had hoped, but there's way more choice in ARMS Fighters that make sense than Golden Sun characters. However, I could easily see Matthew and / or Felix make it in instead of Isaac, and Isaac gets in with the same moveset next Smash with the same move set. Am quite certain that IF we get a Assist Trophy update, it's Isaac.
Want: 100%. I never reply here, Isaac made me do it.
Abstain from Ashley and voting, am here for Isaac alone.
Chances: 45%
Very popular and requested, even since Smash 4 he's got a lot of popular support even as big as characters that made the final cut, as Little Mac, Roy and Shulk. His chances aren't raised with the choice of Min Min as an ARMS Fighter as I had hoped, but there's way more choice in ARMS Fighters that make sense than Golden Sun characters. However, I could easily see Matthew and / or Felix make it in instead of Isaac, and Isaac gets in with the same moveset next Smash with the same move set. Am quite certain that IF we get a Assist Trophy update, it's Isaac.
Want: 100%. I never reply here, Isaac made me do it.
Abstain from Ashley and voting, am here for Isaac alone.
the attitude that he is the most hard done but character, the insensate memes, the idea that hes a bigger mario character than he is and the fact that they seem less bothered about him outside of smash. and there whole thing about how they act like the cant possibly be wrong about all this
WaddleMatt
Smash Lord
Oh! I thought you were calling me entitled ahahaha
oh, i meant self entitlement as an answer to your question
BlueEyedGrimmbat
Smash Apprentice
- Joined
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- 116
Abstaining on both. I don't really have enough knowledge on either character or franchise to make a good judgement. Generally, though, I don't see either one getting in.
Nominations: Amiya (Arknights) x5
Uh, I recall having given Amiya another 5 noms back during the Sylux/Porky day. What happened?
Nominations: Amiya (Arknights) x5
Uh, I recall having given Amiya another 5 noms back during the Sylux/Porky day. What happened?
Ridrool64
Smash Lord
Aaaand my thingies were deleted. Epic.
Isaac's chance, I'll give a 1% to. I think Isaac is mostly outclassed by Waluigi when it comes to AT promos, and regardless of how many first parties we get more than one isn't happening. They didn't specify if Spring Man was never considered simply because Sakurai wasn't interested in him or, indeed, because he's an Assist Trophy, so that could preclude them overall. Golden S
Want's 30%, he's popular for a reason and I get it. But Golden Sun didn't do it for me.
Ashley I will give a 0% to. Ashley is totally outclassed by Waluigi in this case, and Isaac. Hell I dunno if she'd even be the next Wario rep cleanly, Mona and Jimmy T. are just as prominent, might even get somebody from Land. And some might not even think of Wario as its own series, but as a Mario spinoff (though if Wario is, Donkey Kong is).
Want's 60%, not for the character alone that'd be much lower. But I feel like Wario music is atrociously represented in Smash and there's a lot you could put into the games from just Ware alone, let alone Land.
Frisk x 5, don't feel like predicting these two.
Took too long to write my thoughts on Kratos and Chief's days btw, sorry for missing them.
Isaac's chance, I'll give a 1% to. I think Isaac is mostly outclassed by Waluigi when it comes to AT promos, and regardless of how many first parties we get more than one isn't happening. They didn't specify if Spring Man was never considered simply because Sakurai wasn't interested in him or, indeed, because he's an Assist Trophy, so that could preclude them overall. Golden S
Want's 30%, he's popular for a reason and I get it. But Golden Sun didn't do it for me.
Ashley I will give a 0% to. Ashley is totally outclassed by Waluigi in this case, and Isaac. Hell I dunno if she'd even be the next Wario rep cleanly, Mona and Jimmy T. are just as prominent, might even get somebody from Land. And some might not even think of Wario as its own series, but as a Mario spinoff (though if Wario is, Donkey Kong is).
Want's 60%, not for the character alone that'd be much lower. But I feel like Wario music is atrociously represented in Smash and there's a lot you could put into the games from just Ware alone, let alone Land.
Frisk x 5, don't feel like predicting these two.
Took too long to write my thoughts on Kratos and Chief's days btw, sorry for missing them.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
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If I remember correctly you didn't have enough sentences for Porky, so your noms didn't count.
amageish
Smash Master
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Hot(ish) Take: I don't see why Waluigi is being brought up so much in this thread? I get why some people see him as likelier then Isaac or Ashley, but I don't get why people see him as an obstacle for them.
When Min Min was added, the fact she was a spirit upgrade seemingly didn't matter. She got in on her own merits, as a popular character from a successful new Nintendo IP. The fact that there are other spirits with more mainstream popularity and ones with more popularity within the Smash fandom didn't matter. They wanted an ARMS character and upgraded Min Min's spirit to make one. Rayman, Bandana Dee, and Geno are all popular spirits, but there was a 0% chance that they'd have been chosen as the ARMS rep, so the fact they were spirits like Min Min didn't instantly make them direct competition for Min Min's spot.
I imagine Assist Trophies would work the same way. If they want Ashley or Isaac, which they could do for their own merits (be it popularity, franchising potential, whatever), then I imagine they would add Ashley or Isaac. Waluigi existing doesn't directly effect either of them as he does different things from a different franchise with a different audience (I guess maybe you could make Waluigi into a WarioWare rep and then have him compete with Ashley, but I feel like that transition would have to happen outside of Smash before it occurs within it). I highly doubt, given everything we know about Smash development, that Nintendo/Sakurai would pick the broad concept of "An Assist Trophy Being Made Playable" to get in the final 5 and then fight between the assist trophies from there (in which case you could argue Waluigi's mainstream notoriety helps him). I think they'll just pick characters they want to be playable in the game and, hey, if there's an assist trophy in that list, then an assist trophy upgrade happens?
Which isn't to say I'd give Isaac or Ashley a high score, but I also hedge all of my bets haha. I just don't find the Waluigi argument convincing.
TL;DR - characters are chosen by merits/demerits of the specific character; I doubt they would be explicitly trying to an upgrade an assist trophy even if it happens, so I don't think Waluigi's existence makes Ashley/Isaac inherently less likely.
When Min Min was added, the fact she was a spirit upgrade seemingly didn't matter. She got in on her own merits, as a popular character from a successful new Nintendo IP. The fact that there are other spirits with more mainstream popularity and ones with more popularity within the Smash fandom didn't matter. They wanted an ARMS character and upgraded Min Min's spirit to make one. Rayman, Bandana Dee, and Geno are all popular spirits, but there was a 0% chance that they'd have been chosen as the ARMS rep, so the fact they were spirits like Min Min didn't instantly make them direct competition for Min Min's spot.
I imagine Assist Trophies would work the same way. If they want Ashley or Isaac, which they could do for their own merits (be it popularity, franchising potential, whatever), then I imagine they would add Ashley or Isaac. Waluigi existing doesn't directly effect either of them as he does different things from a different franchise with a different audience (I guess maybe you could make Waluigi into a WarioWare rep and then have him compete with Ashley, but I feel like that transition would have to happen outside of Smash before it occurs within it). I highly doubt, given everything we know about Smash development, that Nintendo/Sakurai would pick the broad concept of "An Assist Trophy Being Made Playable" to get in the final 5 and then fight between the assist trophies from there (in which case you could argue Waluigi's mainstream notoriety helps him). I think they'll just pick characters they want to be playable in the game and, hey, if there's an assist trophy in that list, then an assist trophy upgrade happens?
Which isn't to say I'd give Isaac or Ashley a high score, but I also hedge all of my bets haha. I just don't find the Waluigi argument convincing.
TL;DR - characters are chosen by merits/demerits of the specific character; I doubt they would be explicitly trying to an upgrade an assist trophy even if it happens, so I don't think Waluigi's existence makes Ashley/Isaac inherently less likely.
NessAtc.
Fukou Da...
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You all forget so quickly that we've had plenty of trophy upgrades that weren't Waluigi already. Little Mac, Isabelle, and Dark Samus got promoted not because they're more popular than Waluigi, to be clear Waluigi exceeded all of their popularities. They just weren't thinking in terms of "assist trophy upgrade here". Waluigi could not have been chosen as the Punch Out rep, as the second AC rep, or as Samus' echo fighter.
Ergo, Waluigi should not be anywhere near this discussion whatsoever. He's entirely irrelevant. Judge these two characters themselves.
EDIT: Apparently a couple of you didn't get the memo that amageish and I were trying to send. STOP TRYING TO BRING THIS OFF TOPIC. If you cannot discuss these two characters any more, then why the heck are you even here?
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i think isabelle might be more popular
WeirdChillFever
Smash Hero
And Little Mac was a very popular request in Smash 4 speculation too. Of course, his point still stands, but the examples definitely still fit a popularity-based frame, in which Waluigi's high demand could make him a factor
DrifloonEmpire
Smash Champion
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That joke was only in the English dub.
Pikmin was way less niche than Golden Sun. Nintendo showcased it a ton during the Gamecube days and each game in the trilogy individually sold over 1 Million copies.
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I didn't know. Still shows that it's something even Nintendo is aware of.
What does she says in Japanese ?
SharkLord
Smash Hero
I believe she asks Byleth if he calls himself a man, which makes the subsequent reveal of female Byleth that much funnier.
Isn't that a separate joke? I don't remember the trailer well but I guess then^^
Doesn't matter a lot regarding my overall point.
Cosmic77
Smash Hero
It's less "Isaac vs Waluigi/other ATs" and more "Golden Sun vs every other competing first-party franchise".
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RouffWestie
Smash Lord
Isaac
Chance: 1%
Golden Sun is not a very big franchise, but Isaac has had continued support for a long time. If Nintendo somehow brings back Golden Sun out of nowhere, I can see him happening. For now, I think Nintendo's pretty much left him for dead.
Want: 50%
Since he's in SSF2, I'd just play that if I really wanted to play as him. I'm not that crazy about Golden Sun nowadays, but I think it would be neat if it made a comeback.
Ashley
Chance: 2%
She was brought up very often during Smash 4 and the pre-release period of Ultimate. I would call her popularity and continued appearances in the WarioWare franchise the biggest factors in her favor. I think the lack of any WarioWare title on the Switch is holding her back. I could see her happening if it some new WarioWare suddenly ends up releasing, but I don't think she's that likely without that.
Want: 0%
When it comes to magic-users that could be added, Ashely is too generic for my tastes. I'd more likely support someone like Kamek because he's displayed a lot more distinct abilities throughout his appearnaces in the Mario franchise. As far as WarioWare characters go, I don't even care too much for her compared to the others.
Nominations: Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x 5
Chance: 1%
Golden Sun is not a very big franchise, but Isaac has had continued support for a long time. If Nintendo somehow brings back Golden Sun out of nowhere, I can see him happening. For now, I think Nintendo's pretty much left him for dead.
Want: 50%
Since he's in SSF2, I'd just play that if I really wanted to play as him. I'm not that crazy about Golden Sun nowadays, but I think it would be neat if it made a comeback.
Ashley
Chance: 2%
She was brought up very often during Smash 4 and the pre-release period of Ultimate. I would call her popularity and continued appearances in the WarioWare franchise the biggest factors in her favor. I think the lack of any WarioWare title on the Switch is holding her back. I could see her happening if it some new WarioWare suddenly ends up releasing, but I don't think she's that likely without that.
Want: 0%
When it comes to magic-users that could be added, Ashely is too generic for my tastes. I'd more likely support someone like Kamek because he's displayed a lot more distinct abilities throughout his appearnaces in the Mario franchise. As far as WarioWare characters go, I don't even care too much for her compared to the others.
Nominations: Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x 5
Glaciacott
Smash Lord
Very much this. Waluigi will be an obstacle to most first party characters because of the sheer fact that, imo, he's one of the first parties Nintendo stands to win the most from. When you only have 5 spots left, any other character that is found to be more likely is necessarily going to detract from the likelihood of other characters.
Also, the conversation naturally drifts to Waluigi comparison from the fact today is a conversation about first party AT promotions and Waluigi is also arguably a product of Camelot. It's an inevitable comparison and I disagree with it being unrelated to Isaac's chances.
If anything, my hot take is that we should be considering other competition in rating Isaac. Is Isaac more popular than Bandanna Waddle Dee? Geno? Rex and Pyra? Because realistically speaking, the chances that we can get all of these is low, and with most of these characters their main asset for inclusion is that they're popular within the smash community. A lot of characters want to fill in the (big) shoes left by Ridley and K. Rool's inclusion, and I think realistically we can't expect all of these to happen.