Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Perkilator]

*obligatory despair jokes*
Chance: 0%
As said above, Monokuma has ZERO presence on Nintendo consoles. Even Joker had one before P5S via PQ2.

Want: Abstain
Don't really care for Danganronpa. ...Now that I think about it, what kind of name is that?

Akira: 80%

Noms: Claude von Rerate x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Shadow the Hedgehog pre-Monokuma

[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x95
Echo: 27e (Meta Knight) x91
Noctis Lucis Caelum x90
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x90
[Rerate] 2B x90
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x80

100 - 51

Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
X (Mega Man) x70
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x70
Vault Boy x69
Sackboy x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Toxtricity x60
Decidueye x56
Reporter & Wrestler x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x50
Kazuma Kiryu x50
Crypto x50
[Rerate] Dante x47
Meowth x46
Earthworm Jim x45
[Rerate] Waluigi x43
Freddy Fazbear x42
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x40
Gex x40
The Blob (De Blob) x40
Carmen Sandiego x39
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Chun-Li x33
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x30
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x30

Under 25

Urbosa x23
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
Giygas x17
Boss: Ender Dragon x17
Rival Pokémon Trainer x16
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x15
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x13
[Rerate] Skull Kid x12
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Concept: Darksiders rep x5
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x5
Chell x3
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

Lloyd Irving and 2B cut past Ryu Hayabusa and tie with Noctis Lucis Caelum for second place. But then Meta Knight Echo warps past everyone and takes that second place.

Carmen Sandiego escapes from the under 25 club.

Your new concept for the day is Octopath Traveler rep, with five noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Monokuma

Chance: 20%
While it is true that Danganronpa has no direct connections to Nintendo (unless you count crossover appearances), keep in mind Nintendo DOES have a history with Spike Chunsoft, the company who makes Danganronpa. Given that it's objectively their most popular franchise, a Spike Chunsoft rep would probably come from Danganronpa. Still, Monokuma has competition from other Visual Novels, such as Phoenix Wright and, to a lesser extent, Saber from Fate.
Want: 100%
I've really gotten into Danganronpa in recent times, so seeing it recognised in Smash would be a real treat. Plus, Monokuma himself has the potential to be one of the most unique characters in the game, due to his more unique attributes. Also, just listen to DR's soundtrack, you will NOT be dissapointed.

Nominations: Echo 27e x4, Vault Boy x1

 

[Ridrool64]

Hunny isn't what THIS bear craves...

Chance: I'll be generous, since I'm doubting Nintendo history matters that much anymore. 10%. But the lack of demand and the very problem with a visual novel character in that they can't be text based, the reason why people love visual novels, makes him a pretty hard sell.

Want: 50%, but he's another one of those that's for the people. Personally, I couldn't care less about him, but if others got in then he'd be pretty cool.

Lloyd x 5, now I gotta keep him in the top 7.

 

[3DSNinja]

Oh boy...
Chance:50%: Yeah, I think he is incredibly likely. He has a lot of moveset potential, from every execution giving him plenty of options, has a unique design, and is fairly pppular. and considering sakurai is friends with the maker of the franchise, we could get another Snake here.
Want: 100%: Danganronpa is a great franchise, and Monokuma would be very cool in Smash. The variety could be so interesting and he would be a villain character, which smash desperately needs.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Monokuma

Chance 5 - Still feels like this is a bit out there. Not much fan demand for him hurts. We also have a much more demanded character from a visual novel game in Phoenix Wright who feels like one of the top contenders right now. And finally, while I'm not sure it really matters much anymore after Joker and Cloud stretched the fan rule to it's limit, no Nintendo presence of any kind can be taken as a bad sign when so far every character in the game has at least something you can point to as one. And finally finally, I'm not sure what the character itself could do. Monokuma literally murders people, which you could probably make a final smash after toning it down a little but after that I got nothing other than regular punches and kicks. Because of that it feels like the only reason Monokuma would be added would be for the series itself, and the series doesn't seem important enough to Nintendo to get that to happen


Want 50 - The games seem cool and fun but there's others Id rather get first. I also haven't played the games so I don't really have a connection to the character at all. Because of that I can't see myself getting too hyped over it, but I'd also have a hard time saying that I would dislike the inclusion

Predict Akira Howard - 25 percent

Noms
Vault Boy x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining on Monokuma. Same situation as last time when we rated him before.

Akira Howard: 24.47%

Toxtricity x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Monokuma

Chance: 5% - Danganronpa's biggest problem is little to no Nintendo representation (aside from a switch case, though feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). So despite Monokuma's relative popularity I can't imagine Nintendo seeing a benefit in adding him. True we have Joker, but I can't imagine that luck happening a second time (and Joker at least has a few Nintendo games). There's also little to no fan demand for the character and heavy competition from the heavily requested Phoenix Wright (who has basically his whole library on Nintendo Systems). So despite having moveset potential things aren't adding up for Monokuma.

He does have a saving grace though, which is Nintendo's good relationship with his owner, Spike Chunsoft. They've developed several games for Nintendo from big titles like the early Dragon Quest games and the Pokemon Mystery Dungeon series to smaller fare like the Streetpass Mii Plaza games. So There's clearly a good amount of value in the relationship and there's a chance Nintendo will reward them for that with a character.

Want: 5% - I don't care much about Danganronpa, but he does have moveset potential and would certainly be a surprising 3rd party choice. Plus more animal characters is always cool!


Nominations:
Gex x5

Predictions:
Akira Howard - 30.14%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

"You gonna wish you was never born, bear"
Chance: 2%
I don't really think anything changed for him since last time we rated him. The lack of any main Danganropa games on Nintendo platforms still is a negative regardless of Cloud and Joker's inclusions imo. And I still believe the franchise is a little on the niche and dark side for Nintendo to go through with.

Want: 0%
VisuaI aren't really my cup of tea and I kinda think a series should have more justification for joining Smash besides the director being a fanboy of it. I can name many third-party characters I would rather see. Also, some certain event recently made me not much of a fan of this bear.

Akira Howard: 29.88%
Meta Knight echo x5

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain for now, but correct me if I'm wrong (never played) but doesn't Monokuma play a similar role to billy the puppet from Saw? As in its more of tool for the villain to speak through?

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5


Edit Akira 43%

 

[Ultomato]

Hey so I went online for the first time in forever and noticed a bunch of notes from here because I have open extra nominations.
So to save Goodgrief the trouble of typing in my name every week put it all on uhm.... Idk... X, put it all on X.

Sorry for the absence, happy new year, keep doing what you're doing, see you around sometime!

 

[Ninjaed]

He does have a bit of presence as cameo in other games by Spike Chunsoft, like Conception II. But most importantly, the company itself certainly has enough history with Nintendo. They developed some games from certain franchises such as Dragon Quest (the first ones only) or the Pokémon Mystery Dungeon series (it's the company that created the mystery dungeon concept). They're also the ones behind the Zero Escape series, which is fairly well known in the genre.

While Danganronpa itself doesn't exactly have a huge presence on Nintendo consoles, it'd be good to remember that the company does. It might not be the biggest or more "deserving" of companies for a rep, but at least it wouldn't be as far-fetched as some seem to make it sound.

Edit: oh so my browser actually hadn't refreshed the page when I pressed F5 huh... DrifloonEmpire already pointed out the good relationship between the 2 companies. Oh welll.

 

[Sid-cada]

Monokuma

Chance - 5% - Danganronpa is currently one of the big visual novels in terms of Video Game names. That said, there's a bigger name, and that's Phoenix Wright. With how open Capcom has been to crossing over their characters, I find it very hard to believe that Phoenix won't get in before any other VN character (at least ones that aren't first party). The lack of his presence on Nintendo consoles also doesn't help much. While his company does have reasonably good relations with Nintendo, the above is enough to make me feel like that's not enough to overcome his problems.

Want - 35% - I know of it, so it's not completely out of left field. I want Phoenix first, though. Even then, I have no direct connection, so I'm not exactly enthused. I don't care, but I would rather have many other characters.


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[warpenguin55]

Monokuma

Chance: 3%
I can't see a way he gets in over Phoenix Wright. Phoenix is more requested and more family friendly. Capcom is in good standing with Nintendo just like Spike Chunsoft. Phoenix has a lot more presence on Nintendo consoles too, even with Cloud and Joker getting in it still does hurt your chances to not have any main series games on a Nintendo console.

Want: 2%
I don't hold any attachment to this character. I'd really rather have Phoenix. If a girl not wearing enough clothes stops her from appearing in the background of a stage, then I don't think a murderous bear will be playable

Noms: Conpect: Echo Fighters post fighters pass x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hey so I went online for the first time in forever and noticed a bunch of notes from here because I have open extra nominations.
So to save Goodgrief the trouble of typing in my name every week put it all on uhm.... Idk... X, put it all on X.

Sorry for the absence, happy new year, keep doing what you're doing, see you around sometime!

No problem at all! Happy New year to you too.

He does have a bit of presence as cameo in other games by Spike Chunsoft, like Conception II.

Wait, so he has been on a Nintendo console?

That just puts him on Master Chief level, but it changes things a bit.

 

[Calamitas]

Gonna double abstain on the bear. I don't really know anything about Dangle Rope, and I don't think that the assessments made by others here are enough to properly form my own opinion.

Predicting Akira Howard to get ~27.84%.

Nominating [Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5.

 

[Ninjaed]

Wait, so he has been on a Nintendo console?

That just puts him on Master Chief level, but it changes things a bit.

Yes he has been in Conception II, Crypt of the Necrodancer, and a few others. You can find a list here:

https://danganronpa.fandom.com/wiki/Danganronpa_in_Other_Media

That said, I'd rather have Junko but Monokuma would be the more logical (and fitting) choice for Smash.

 

[Geoffrey Druyts]

Chance: 10%

Uhh... I honestly don't see it happening, as much as I hate to say it. Monokuma only has cameos on Nintendo consoles, so the chances of him getting in are really low. Cloud and Joker got really lucky when they got selected as fighters, but I just don't see the same happening to Monokuma.

Want: 60%

While I'd rather have Phoenix and Heavy first, I really would love to see Monokuma make it in too one day. I really loved the Danganronpa games even tho I haven't been a long time fan of it unlike other people and I think it would be kind of funny to see him get in. With that being said:

Spoiler: Danganronpa Spoilers

If we were to get a Danganronpa rep, I really want it to be either Monokuma, or one of the protagonists, NOT JUNKO. I really don't understand why people want such a big spoiler to be playable in a crossover game. I mostly started playing Metroid and Zelda games because they both have fighters representing the series in Smash Bros and it would really upset me if people their Danganronpa playthrough gets ruined because they already know Junko is the main villain in the series instead of "one of the students who got trapped inside the school". I know Smash already spoils that Zelda is Sheik, but I think Junko's spoiler is much bigger then the Zelda one.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Akira Howard from Astral Chain.

Predict Kunio from Kunio-kun/River City.

Day will end Sunday at about 8 pm EST.

Megadoomer

----------

Some songs to get into the Astral Chain mood:

Spoiler: Astral Chain Music

 

[Perkilator]

Geese Howard's Distant Ancestor
Chance: 70%
Astral Chain may not have sold fantastically, but I doubt that would stop an Astral Chain rep. Seeing as there was no Spirit event for the game, I'm sure Sakurai is at least considering Akira.

Want: 50%
I considered getting the game for my birthday, but I decided against. I heard kn Twitter that there's some janky way to JUMP. As in it's not just a single button. That wouldn't stop me from being hyped, of course, but I am slightly worried Sakurai might somehow integrate this into Smash. However, it would just be one small thing.

Kunio: 10%

Noms: Claude von Rerate x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Akira Howard

Chance: 50% - First party IP that was pushed heavily during its' prerelease period, despite the somewhat low sales I do see it having a sizable shot. Sakurai loves Platinum, there's no spirit event, and they have a decent amount of fan demand, so it's a realistic expectation. That being said, they missed their window as a promotional pick since their game released last August, and with Nintendo focusing on third parties I don't think they'd make the decision now to add them, especially when their sales weren't great. I do see them as a Smash 6 base roster pick but that's far off, and not quite as likely if Astral Chain doesn't get a sequel in the future from its' lower sales. So it's in a very interesting spot.

Want: 0% - I don't really care much for Platinum's games or their characters, and while they'd make WAY more sense than 2B I still can't imagine getting excited for them at all. Furthermore, I can imagine fans of Xenoblade 2 or ARMS being very upset since their characters from 2017 are considered too new while a character from 2019 would be getting in without problems. And I don't think it would be very fair to them.


Nominations:
Gex x5

Predictions:
Kunio - 14.29%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Bad Boys

Chance: 25%
Not too shabby, I can see Nintendo choosing to promote their shiny new IP. After all, the demand is there, Astral Chain was acclaimed, and it could use the boost to become a recurring thing (worked wonders with Bayonetta, and if they can do it for a Sega property they sure as **** can do it for one of their own). The moveset potential here is crazy. And the lack of a Spirit event is suspect.

The main strike, at least for me, is competition. Rex, Spring Man, and Byleth are also characters from recent games that could be considered promotional, that people are clamoring for, and that have very unique movesets. I see them all as competition, though there's a small chance that maybe two of them could get in.

Really, though, it says a lot about the games Nintendo's been putting out that people actually want Nintendo to shill their new stuff, even after Corrin.

Want: 100%
A first party IP. A Platinum actioner. A cool pseudo-cyberpunk detective game. That duel-action is amazing. Gimme this in Smash and an ongoing series please.

Noms: Noctis
Kunio prediction: 11%

 

[Wunderwaft]

Akira Howard

Chance: 55%
Popular new IP? Check.
No content in Smash? Check.
Owned by Nintendo? Check.

Really, the only negative thing I can say about their chances is that there are other first party characters with decent competition, which kinda goes to everyone and not just the Howard twins. As it stands I find Astral Chain to be one of the frontrunners in regards to first party DLC. The others that I find are in the same spot are a Three Houses rep, Rex, and Waluigi. And the three I mentioned do have some negative strikes against their chances unlike the Howard twins, so for the moment I find Akira Howard to be the most likely first party character, but not by a wide margin.


Want: 50%
I like their design and I like the gameplay I've seen of them. The only reason it's not any higher is because I still haven't played Astral Chains, I should probably fix that.


Prediction: Kunio 13.2%
Nomination: Waluigi x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

What we do here is go forward
Chance: 75%
I actually think timing and low sale figures aren't a huge issue here. Remember, we only got confirmation of more DLC mere days after the release of Astral Chain. With all the promotion being done before release day and Astral Chain not getting a spirit event unlike other big Switch releases makes me think Howard might be one of the earliest characters planned for post-pass DLC. I don't think sales would matter at that point, not to mention this character just seems right up Sakurai's alley that I doubt he would want to scrap due to dissapointing sales. Might honestly be the likeliest first-party pick imo.

Want: 75%
I'm still relatively early in the game. I told myself to really get further into it before we rated them yet dumb me didn't do that. Still, I do see the potential here. This is possibly the only notable Nintendo-owned world not yet represented in Smash in any way. The legions would also offer some wicked moveset potential, akin to Joker's persona tho hopefully not as broken. Mentioning it, they would be a fun contrast to the Phantom thief. Cop v Robber with stand-influenced beings involved does sound like a fun concept.

Kunio: 11.77%
Meta Knight echo x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Monokuma pre-Akira Howard

[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x100
Echo: 27e (Meta Knight) x100
Noctis Lucis Caelum x95
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x95
[Rerate] 2B x95
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x80
X (Mega Man) x80

100 - 51

Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x75
Vault Boy x75
Sackboy x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Toxtricity x65
Decidueye x56
Reporter & Wrestler x55
Crypto x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x50
Kazuma Kiryu x50
[Rerate] Dante x47
Freddy Fazbear x47
Meowth x46
Earthworm Jim x45
Gex x45
The Blob (De Blob) x45
Carmen Sandiego x44
[Rerate] Waluigi x43
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x40
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Chun-Li x33
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x30
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x30

Under 25

Urbosa x23
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
Giygas x17
Boss: Ender Dragon x17
Rival Pokémon Trainer x16
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x15
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
[Rerate] Skull Kid x12
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Concept: Darksiders rep x5
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x5
Concept: Echo Fighters post-Fighter Pass x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

X dashes into the top seven, tying with Ryo Hazuki and Mii Costume: Hollow Knight for seventh place.

Crypto spawns past the 50 nom barrier.

Today's new concept is Echo Fighters post-Fighter Pass, with five noms.

 

[Jomosensual]

Akira Howard

Chance 70 - Right now I think this is one of the more likely 1st party reps to happen. No spirit event yet feels suspicious and for the time being I feel like we're getting at least a couple new 1st party reps in the game. Should Akira get announced then we'll be far enough away from the games release date to avoid another Corrin situation. Only thing that gives me a little pause is that 3 Houses also sits in the same boat for now, as does a Gen 8 Pokemon, although thats slightly less likely. There's also a number of requested first party reps from base game speculation who were passed on that could be back in play. Overall though, I think this is one of the more likely characters to happen since it would be a new series and that's what the DLC has focused the most on.

Want 50 - Wouldn't hate it I suppose. Tried playing the game and there was a lot I liked, mainly the music. The combat felt pretty tough though. Went through the tutorial and a few times and was still kinda lost so IDK if I'll come back to it soon. Either way, I can for sure see how Akira would fit in Smash and why someone would want the twins in.

Predict Kunio - 10%

Noms
Vault Boy x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Akira Howard
Chance: 70%
Akira is probably the best chance we have at getting a 1st party rep in the fighters pass. One of the big reasons I feel this way is because we haven't got a random spirit event for it yet. There really isn't too much that could be a spirit in Astral Chain imo, so the fact we didn't get a spirit event for it yet is a pretty good sign. Apparently Astral Chain didn't sell well, which is disappointing. Maybe they try to bump up sales with Smash?

As for moveset potential: for those who don't want spoilers, there really is so much you can do.

Spoiler

There are 5 Legions you unlock throughout the game (Sword, Arrow, Arms, Beast, and Axe), and Akira's main weapon, (the X Baton) has 3 forms (Baton, Gun, and Sword). You can switch between Legions and X Baton forms on the fly, and there is an actual Monado wheel sort of thing in the game for quick Legion Swaps. In Astral Chain the Legions will automatically attack the closest enemy to them, so you would still be able to focus on controlling Akira and watch your surroundings. I'm honestly not sure how to work all of this into a moveset without making the character too hard to play tbh. Every idea I can think of only makes sense for competitive, and characters would need to be viable in multi man scramble fights too.

For the Final Smash, I'm thinking the only viable options would be to have Akira turn into the 6th Legion. I don't know it's official name, probably Claw or Slasher or something like that. It would work similar to Wario's final smash where he turns into Wario-Man and dashes forward. Just replace Wario with Akira and the cut scene has Akira ripping the target to shreds.

The stage would almost have to be the Astral Plane. It's one of the most important places in the game and you already do a lot of fighting there. Hell, maybe that's how Akira dodges Galeem XD.

Want: 90%
I liked Astral Chain. Akira is towards the top of my wish list, only losing out of League of Legends rep and Edelgard at the moment. I recommend the game to anyone. I do have 1 major complaint, but it's a major spoiler and I'd rather not list it here even with a spoiler tag.

Sari you missed out on my favorite track from Astral Chain. I love the base theme. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4x4i8QAAhY


Jomosensual the combat is a bit intimidating at first, I agree. But if you stick with it you should be able to get it. Watching some YouTube gameplay might help you understand wtf is going on, I know it helped me.


Noms: Echo Fighters post pass x5

 

[BowserKing]

Akira Howard

Chance: 35%. Not the highest for the Nintendo fighters (Adeleine, Edelgard, Sylux, Porky and Pokémon from Sword and Shield (Like Rillaboom and Frosmoth) are higher, with Edelgard being the most likely), but Akira has a chance to be in the game. Competition is the biggest concern, and chances are, Edelgard will get in before Akira does due to Fire Emblems popularity. It's not impossible however, and the inclusion would bring more popularity.

Want: 60%. Akira would be a unique fighter, while also being fun to play as. With Akira's inclusion, we would have signs that Nintendo is not forgetting their own characters for smash. Also Akira vs Bayonetta would be a fun matchup. Then again, who know when the next Nintendo character gets in.

Prediction: Kunio: 5%

Noms: 4 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 1 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[Night Gale]

Furthermore, I can imagine fans of Xenoblade 2 or ARMS being very upset since their characters from 2017 are considered too new while a character from 2019 would be getting in without problems. And I don't think it would be very fair to them.

Astral Chain was in the works before Nier Automata started development as far back as 2014. I can see it happening after the season pass because Nintendo knew about Astral Chain since Smash 4.

 

[Sari]

Before I post my rating I just want to know: where are people getting that Astral Chain didn't sell well?

Maybe I'm missing something but from what I could find it topped the sale charts in the U.K. and Japan even had a shortage of copies due to how well it was selling over there.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Akira Howard

Chance: 50%
I will admit, they are one of the more likely first-party picks. Astral Chain is a new IP that the developers apparently want to see become a series. Plus, there wasn't a Spirit event to promote the game. That being said, we haven't even established if first-parties are on the table for DLC, so it's hard to go all in on them.
Want: 100%
I was obsessed with Astral Chain when it came out. The combat was fun, the world was surprisingly layered, and you got to dress up as a dog. I very much believe the game (and by extension, Akira) has more than earned a spot in Smash.

Nominations: Sackboy x2, Dante x3

 

[NintenRob]

Insert Akira anime joke here

Chance 42%
This makes sense to me. New IP, hasn't had any representation yet which means no spirits or Mii costume. Could still happen and we also have other games like three houses that haven't anything yet. And I've said previously that I find it very hard to believe that we wouldn't get any Nintendo characters
Want 30%
I haven't played Astral Chain, I've been somewhat limited in what games I can buy recently. But I would like to, one day maybe. Seems kinda cool.


Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction kunio? Who? 0.5%

 

[Ridrool64]

Akira Kurusu vs. Akira Howard. Now we just need Ren Amamiya vs. Sakura Amamiya.

Chance: 75%. Yeah, I really can't doubt Astral Chain getting in at all, I've got a fantastic feeling post-pass is their time. I don't have much to say here since I can't really say anything specific.

Want: 40%. Never played it but AsC looks pretty cool, and Akira looks pretty unique. Also, a lot of people would love to see it happen.

Lloyd x 5.

 

[Jomosensual]

Chance: 35%. Not the highest for the Nintendo fighters (Adeleine, Edelgard, Sylux, Porky, Pokémon from Sword and Shield and a Legend of Zelda Rep that is not a spirit or assist are higher)

You might need to explain how Adeleine is more likely here. She doesn't even feel like the most likely rep from her own series.

 

[Flyboy]

Akira Howard
Chance: 25%
This is tough. On one hand, the spirit event is very suspicious in its absence, the game has been known inside Nintendo internally for a long time, and it got and is getting some solid promotion and decent sales all around. It's also tempting for a brand new generation character not yet represented to get in especially if they can bring a "new world" into Smash. The Howard twins have everyone going for them when it comes to uniqueness and making a quick and powerful impression. However...I'm not sure yet if we are getting any first parties after the pass. It's a real tossup right now because we have no clue what's coming. I think a solid chance while erring on the side of caution is appropriate.

Want: 100%
I've finally managed to sink some time into Astral Chain and I love it. The Howards are really fun and the main moveset gimmick of the game is completely nuts. The world is beautiful, with an art style that spoke to me immediately, some incredible music, and overall some engaging investigative exploration gameplay that reminds me in a positive way of an early-2000s RPG with tons of NPCs to interact with and stuff to check out with the IRIS and superfluous information that does nothing but make the place warmer and more alive than ever. Astral Chain is my second-most-wanted first party world I want to see added. It has everything going for it. It's beautiful, it's exciting, it's fresh, and the Howards have such a crazy puppet fighter/co-op fighter moveset that is flashy, intense, and full of crazy chain traps and trips. It's like very little else I've ever played. Yes please.

Nominations: Kazuma Kiryu x5

 

[Calamitas]

So is the twin you pick canonically named "Todd" or what?

Chance: 65%
Honestly? Outside of all first-party characters, they currently are frontrunners as far as chances go. While I find it honestly still highly questionable just whether or not Spirits deconfirm characters, I think it is rather safe to assume that Spirits that were as part of a post-release update have pretty much no chance of making it in as a fighter. And coincidentally, which major Nintendo releases didn't come with a few new Spirits for Smash? Fire Emblem Three Houses. . . and Astral Chain. And all of this isn't even getting into the fact of the game being a reasonably successful new IP.

Want: 80%
I did get the game a couple of days ago, but I haven't started playing it yet, since I want to replay some games first. But I did watch a Let's Play of it already, and the gameplay has definitely won me over, and I really do believe that the character and game offer a lot of cool new concepts for Smash. And if you ask me, everyone who's clamoring for Brexit and Pyrrha Rex and Pyra on the basis of the concept of a dual fighter should look to Akira Howard instead, considering that they pull it off far better than those two in terms of gameplay.

Predicting Kunio to get around 3%.

Nominating [Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5.

Akira Howard

Chance: 35%. Not the highest for the Nintendo fighters (Adeleine, Edelgard, Sylux, Porky, Pokémon from Sword and Shield and a Legend of Zelda Rep that is not a spirit or assist are higher)

. . .Uh, yeah, no matter how you explain it, I'm having an extremely hard time seeing how Adeleine, Sylux and Porky have a better shot than Akira, when all those three really have going for them is a lack of Spirits. A new Zelda characters is honestly also a similar hard sell, considering how little attention that series has gotten in terms of new playable characters.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Chance: 50%

It's very possible. Astral Chain is a recent game that sold very well and got a lot of praise. Plus it has not had a spirit event yet. I do see it as one of the more likelier 1st party picks. It pretty much comes down to if Sakurai wants to focus on long-term fan requests when it comes to possible 1st party characters, or spend sone resources on recent hit games. One thing is for certain, Astral Chain is not something to underestimate, even with the focus on 3rd party characters.

Want: Abstain

I have not played Astral Chain yet.

Predictions: Kunio - 1% (literally who?)

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

The character who could use a cooler name.
Chance: 30%
Want: 70%

Before finding out he was from Astral Chain, I assumed Akira Howard was a literally who character from some random Xbox game that nobody really plays anymore. After watching some gameplay though, I think he's worth the inclusion. He has great moveset potential, a cool design, and he's from a new Nintendo IP. While Astral Chain is very recent, the game has been in development since 2014, so Sakurai probably thought about it beforehand. I can see this happening post pass, rather than for FP5, since the pass has been all third party so far. I might start supporting his inclusion after the fighter's pass though.

Kunio 1.16%

Toxtricity x5

 

[Flyboy]

The character who really needs a cooler name.
Chance: 30%
Want: 70%

Before finding out he was from Astral Chain, I assumed Akira Howard was a literally who character from some random Xbox game that nobody really plays anymore. (*cough Francis York Morgan cough*). After watching some gameplay though, I think he's worth the inclusion. He has great moveset potential, a cool design, and he's from a new Nintendo IP. While Astral Chain is very recent, the game has been in development since 2014, so Sakurai probably thought about it beforehand. I can see this happening post pass, rather than for FP5, since the pass has been all third party so far. The only problem I have with him (and it's very petty) is his name's kind of boring. There's nothing really we can change here, but I just wish he had a cooler name or alias to make him stand out more as a memorable character. As I said above, his name makes him sound like a literally who from some dead Xbox 360 game... I might start supporting his inclusion after the fighter's pass though.

Kunio who? 1.16%

Toxtricity x5

I don't know why you have to slag on Deadly Premonition and call it "dead" when it JUST got a Switch port and the announcement of a Nintendo-exclusive sequel was a major focus of the last Direct. Akira also has a title as a cop, Officer Howard, as well as Legionis due to their extra abilities. Finally, Kunio is a major character that has been a mainstay on Nintendo since the NES in River City Ransom and Super Dodge Ball, with his most recent appearance being in River City Girls which is again available on the Nintendo Switch.

Bad post, OP.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

I don't know why you have to slag on Deadly Premonition and call it "dead" when it JUST got a Switch port and the announcement of a Nintendo-exclusive sequel was a major focus of the last Direct. Akira also has a title as a cop, Officer Howard, as well as Legionis due to their extra abilities. Finally, Kunio is a major character that has been a mainstay on Nintendo since the NES in River City Ransom and Super Dodge Ball, with his most recent appearance being in River City Girls which is again available on the Nintendo Switch.

Bad post, OP.

Thanks for letting me know. I'll fix it.