It's been an arcade game for a few years now, and I thought Blast was meh.
Yeah I know it was you who told me in the first place. But thanks for posting because now I can post this without double posting!
It's time for everyone's (?) favorite (?) game (???): Confirmed/Disconfirmed! This should probably wait until the Sakurai Presents but **** it, I'm doing calcs anyway so I have the spreadsheet open, might as well.
Confirmed
Kazuya Mishima
Kazuya was never rated. Jin was rated once and Heihachi 3 times but never Kazuya.
Tekken rep
31.03% Chance - 46.55% Want
Soft disconfirmed
Bandai Namco characters (Lloyd Irving, The Prince of All Cosmos, Yuri Lowell, Chosen Undead, Agumon, Velvet Crowe, KOS-MOS, Nightmare, Klonoa, Don-chan, Goku?)
The elusive double dip continues to be elusive, and I imagine that many will jump ship after we didn't get a second SE or Microsoft rep at E3. Plus, even if double dips are a thing, it's hard to imagine them back to back, especially when it's Bandai Namco, the company most reluctant to get a second rep.
Fighting game characters (Morrigan Aensland, Kyo Kusanagi, Sol Badguy, Ragna the Bloodedge, Chun-Li, Kasumi, all the ARMS characters that were never technically disconfirmed)
This is flimsier, and detractors will point to the overabundance of RPG characters and the fact that Min Min and Kazuya already make two in a Pass, but again, it's hard to imagine back to back fighting game reps not getting revealed together.
Jin Kazama
9.09% Chance - 28.15% Want
x55 noms
Only putting him here because he's not on the stage from what I've seen, but he's another Tekken character, which in turn makes him another Bamco and fighting game rep. And he could get a Mii Costume soon. Ouch.
Hard disconfirmed
Heihachi Mishima (if he wasn't already)
I. 7.82% - 24.82%
II. 42.94% - 56.40%
III. 37.58% - 53.60%
Other impressions
Who's hurt by this reveal? I'd say any character that would reasonably get shown off at E3. It's doubtful that they'll stretch the next reveal all the way to TGA which means that they had the biggest venue in the world and chose not to use it. Combine that with the Smash tradition of ending soft and yeah, you know where I'm going with this.
Who stands to gain? I'd say there's two groups.
Characters from companies and franchises with DLC Mii Costumes: if you're like me and you never thought these meant anything it won't feel like much, but a lot of people were on the other side of the fence. Expect this point to be made a lot.
Anyone who had a game shown off today: if you're like me and are expecting FP11 to have a major promotional component, today's 2021 focused Direct gave us a lineup of suspects, both first- and third-party. Keep an eye out on these games as a lot of release dates line up nicely with the Pass.
I'll be back soon with a noms+calcs combo.
