Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Cutie Gwen]

.... I really hope you're just joking...

There is absolutely nothing more important than jokey titles given for characters, I've never been more serious about anything in my life

I'm not that familiar with these two but the fact that Estelle is a bo staff user and Joshua is a dual blades user indicates that they wouldn't be alts, which means that they are competing against each other.

Actually, Estelle still gets front billing over Joshua from Falcom if they're not both there

the Legend of Heroes anniversary emblem

Misremembered this as it was a Trails anniversary emblem but here it is

No Joshua in sight

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

There is absolutely nothing more important than jokey titles given for characters, I've never been more serious about anything in my life

Good

Also who's Joshua?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Good

Also who's Joshua?

Joshua's Estelle's adoptive brother, he's the levelheaded one of the two. Basically the Dipper to Estelle's Mabel, he's the secondary protagonist as Estelle gets more focus throughout the series than him because she's got main character priviledges, though the first game's all about their adventure throughout Liberl.


Sidenote, if anyone here's curious about Trails, Trails in the Sky FC's pretty cheap on Steam, 16 euros despite no sale and as the original 2004 game was a PC game, you don't need super strong specs to run it, it also has a built in Turbo button to make things 6 times faster

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining on all three tho I honestly don't buy any of them being our last character.

Decidueye: 9.53%
Garchomp: 4.86%
Gen 8: 17.22%
Bandana Dee x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Abstain, though out of these three I am the most interested in Estelle. Very soon I am going to download Trails in the Sky as I want to learn more about her and I am in the mood for playing a JRPG anyway.

noms: x5 for Octoling

 

[ShrimpScampi]

I'll throw my thoughts in on the Falcom gang since I'm a supporter of them. Tbh I'm not super confident in a Falcom rep getting in at all for the last slot, but I would absolutely love to see one. One nice constant between all three is that Falcom's music catalog is phenomenal, and given how it's all licensed under the in-house "Falcom Sound Team jdk", they could definitely be generous when it comes to music tracks.

Adol Christin:
Chances: 35%
Other people on this thread have already mentioned Falcom's history, so I won't go super in depth about it. I do think that if they want a character that directly represents the company's history as a whole, Adol would be the go-to choice. Ys has existed as a series for much longer than Trails. Trails spun off from the Legend of Heroes, which spun off from Dragon Slayer. I also remember a recent popularity poll from Falcom Day where Adol won first place on favorite character, with Rean in second and Estelle in third. So overall I see Adol as the frontrunner among the three.

Want: 85%
Adol would be a blast to see in Smash. He would most likely be a fast-paced character, given how Ys's gameplay is fast and in-your-face. Each game also switches up Adol's abilities & mechanics a little, so they have a lot of options when it comes to making moves for him. I worry a bit about what the overall fanbase's reaction to him would be, but for me, he'd be a welcome addition.

Estelle Bright:
Chances: 25%
Estelle is in a bit of a weird spot. Adol has the most direct connection to the company's history, while Rean is the more modern Trails protagonist. I think the best thing going for Estelle is that she's the historical choice within the Trails franchise specifically. The franchise anniversary logo Gwen posted earlier also shows that she still has a good portion of the spotlight when it comes to promoting the franchise. So I think she has a shot, just slightly less than Adol or Rean.

Want: 100%
If you can't tell already from my signature, Estelle is one of my most wanted characters. She'd bring something new to the table with her staff combat and arts, and there are a lot of locations in Liberl that could work for a stage (the Grancel coliseum or castle, or even a touring stage where you ride the Arseille airship around to all of the major cities). I also just really love the characters in the Sky arc and would love to see them represented in Smash.

Rean Schwarzer:
Chances: 30%
Rean has the benefit of being the most modern protagonist in Trails (at least until Van Arkride comes along in Kuro no Kiseki this September). So I see him as slightly ahead of Estelle in terms of chances, but slightly behind Adol.

Want: 65%
I'd be happy with Trails getting representation at all, but my preferred protagonist would definitely be Estelle (followed by Lloyd Bannings, but there's no way that's happening lol). I would also not be looking forward to the general fanbase's reaction to ending the second Fighter's Pass with Rean, especially considering how the last pass ended. It would make for some good memes though:

 

[chocolatejr9]

I'll throw my thoughts in on the Falcom gang since I'm a supporter of them. Tbh I'm not super confident in a Falcom rep getting in at all for the last slot, but I would absolutely love to see one. One nice constant between all three is that Falcom's music catalog is phenomenal, and given how it's all licensed under the in-house "Falcom Sound Team jdk", they could definitely be generous when it comes to music tracks.

Adol Christin:
Chances: 35%
Other people on this thread have already mentioned Falcom's history, so I won't go super in depth about it. I do think that if they want a character that directly represents the company's history as a whole, Adol would be the go-to choice. Ys has existed as a series for much longer than Trails. Trails spun off from the Legend of Heroes, which spun off from Dragon Slayer. I also remember a recent popularity poll from Falcom Day where Adol won first place on favorite character, with Rean in second and Estelle in third. So overall I see Adol as the frontrunner among the three.

Want: 85%
Adol would be a blast to see in Smash. He would most likely be a fast-paced character, given how Ys's gameplay is fast and in-your-face. Each game also switches up Adol's abilities & mechanics a little, so they have a lot of options when it comes to making moves for him. I worry a bit about what the overall fanbase's reaction to him would be, but for me, he'd be a welcome addition.

Estelle Bright:
Chances: 25%
Estelle is in a bit of a weird spot. Adol has the most direct connection to the company's history, while Rean is the more modern Trails protagonist. I think the best thing going for Estelle is that she's the historical choice within the Trails franchise specifically. The franchise anniversary logo Gwen posted earlier also shows that she still has a good portion of the spotlight when it comes to promoting the franchise. So I think she has a shot, just slightly less than Adol or Rean.

Want: 100%
If you can't tell already from my signature, Estelle is one of my most wanted characters. She'd bring something new to the table with her staff combat and arts, and there are a lot of locations in Liberl that could work for a stage (the Grancel coliseum or castle, or even a touring stage where you ride the Arseille airship around to all of the major cities). I also just really love the characters in the Sky arc and would love to see them represented in Smash.

Rean Schwarzer:
Chances: 30%
Rean has the benefit of being the most modern protagonist in Trails (at least until Van Arkride comes along in Kuro no Kiseki this September). So I see him as slightly ahead of Estelle in terms of chances, but slightly behind Adol.

Want: 65%
I'd be happy with Trails getting representation at all, but my preferred protagonist would definitely be Estelle (followed by Lloyd Bannings, but there's no way that's happening lol). I would also not be looking forward to the general fanbase's reaction to ending the second Fighter's Pass with Rean, especially considering how the last pass ended. It would make for some good memes though:

View attachment 319957​

You get a free like for that meme.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The Trails Twosome (ft. Adol from the Ys series)

Rean chance: 1%
Estelle chance: 4%

I don't see a way in for these two. Trails is an incredibly niche franchise. It's sold 5 million copies with 11 games. That's not great, for reference even Sakura Wars has done better (in terms of average sales per game). It's the series you hear from only from the most hardcore of JRPG. Sure, it's on the Switch, but it's too small to get a promotional character from Nintendo. It's not like Falcom is a big company with incredibly close ties to Nintendo so they wouldn't get in through that link. There are bigger, more popular, more demanded, more acclaimed, more influential, and more relevant JRPG series out there. Simply put, Trails only has one point in its favor and it's being a videogame franchise.

On the small chance that it does get a fighter, my money's on Estelle. Rean has relevance as his only advantage, and apparently he won a fan poll or something? But I've seen Estelle used a lot more as the franchise's mascot, and a lot more people who are fans of her than Rean. There's also moveset factor: Rean is another dude with a sword, whereas Estelle wields a weapon that isn't represented in the roster. I guess I should never underestimate Nintendo's penchant for adding swordies but being realistic I don't think they'd skip Estelle.

Rean want: 0%
Sorry but he'd probably be one of the worst additions I could think of. Haven't played his games, no connection to the dude. Looks incredibly generic in terms of the Crafts and weapons he can use. I'm sure given the series' reputation that he's actually a well-rounded character with motivations and whatever. But without knowing that I look at him and all I can see is some dude who looks way too much like Kirito for my liking.

Estelle want: 40%
No connection to Estelle either but her fans have done a much better job ingratiating me to her at least. She has a relatively unique look, and from what I've seen she's a funny character both in terms of dialogue and even how she moves and fights. While I can't say I think she deserves to be in Smash, at all, if I see a character compared to Mabel Pines I gotta give them some credit.

Adol chance: 20%
Now this is the character to keep an eye on. I think SNK is an apt comparison for Falcom: both are Japanese devs that aren't and never were huge, but excel in their preferred genre and are responsible for a couple of landmark evolutions in gaming. Trails is the equivalent of Samurai Shodown in this analogy (in that it gets modern games but it hasn't really made an impact in the industry). And Falcom's big breakthrough and claim to fame is the creation of the ARPG. The first ARPG was Dragon Slayer, but that franchise isn't ongoing anymore (barring Trails, a spin-off of a spin-off that isn't even an ARPG, and I guess Tokyo Xanadu). So the best choice to rep that legacy goes to Ys, Falcom's other ARPG series, one that is still ongoing and whose main character is Adol.

Tl;dr the only way Falcom gets a character is through "you might not know this but it was important back in the day", otherwise they're ****ed.

I'd say Adol makes a lot of sense for FP11 as a pick that would have made absolutely no sense at E3 or at any point other than the last reveal. He won't be selling many people on the Pass, that's for sure. However I'm taking some points away because I think there's a good chance the last fighter is either first party and/or promotional and he's neither of those (I know IX is coming soon to the Switch but Nintendo isn't marketing it at all).

Want: 90%
I played the classic "bump" Ys games, they're fun if you're into retro stuff like me. Don't really care about Adol as a character and frankly you could do a lot better in terms of moveset. But I always defer to gaming history and deservedness even if a character isn't for me, so sure, I'll take him.

Noms: Octoling x30
Decidueye prediction: 17.65%
Garchomp prediction: 12.84%
Gen 8 prediction: 7.97%

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

DELETE THIS I POSTED THIS IN THE WRONG THREAD
PHONES SUCK

 

[Jomosensual]

Going to triple abstain today. My plane ride back was complete hell last night(6 hours of delays) and I have no energy to do this today

All daily noms go to Ori

 

[AirMac1]

I’m gonna abstain on all, because I don’t know anything about these characters and their respective games.

Predictions:
Decidueye: 10%
Garchomp: 3%
Gen 8 Pokémon: 10%

Noms: Concept: Crazy Taxi Rep xMAX

 

[SKX31]

While I'm not familiar at all with either Trails or Ys, I'm gonna give this a go:

General, averaged chance: ca 13 %, or close to 1/7

Not giving high scores simply because we're looking at a last slot. It's something I've been consistent about once FP2 entered its later stretches - there's just not enough chances left for me to be confident dropping a higher score. With that said:

Falcom is a very interesting corp. Not exactly large, but persistent and influential because it was one of the first Japanese companies to give video games a whirl. Its influence is duely noted by their colleagues in the business, even if its influence may not have directly extended much beyond Japan's borders.

That said, Falcom's chances are difficult to judge. They're in a position where it would make sense, but there's a whole lot of choices where it would make sense. You can say the same about Spike Chunsoft, Level-5 or Marvelous really, and that's just three examples who are in a kinda sorta similar boat as Falcom.

As for the characters themselves individually: While I don't know any of them much beyond Estelle promising to commit ultra-violence or Adol being a speedy swordsman, from how the individual characters are positioned it looks like Adol would have the frontrunner position amongst the three (pending Sakurai or Falcom's potential wants), Estelle does have her own character and moveset potential, while Rean is currently the face of the Trails franchise it looks like (Edit: Goofed initially).

Adol: 17 %
Estelle: 13 %
Rean: 10 %

Want: 65 %

I've never played a Falcom game - didn't know they even existed until I joined here and Sharklord in particular started to push. But I'm kinda intrigued (even as I don't play a lot of JRPGs and have instead historically leaned hard towards multiplayer games - the only traditional RPG I have a lot of experience with is FF VI) since from the looks of it Falcom are competent developers, and the three characters seem to be pretty likable. So yeah, I'm positive.

Holding noms for now.
Gen 8 Predictions: 19 %

 

[SharkLord]

I debated whether or not I wanted to pop in here, but then I noticed Adol's surname didn't have an "H" in it for the title. This cannot go unnoticed, but I can't just pop in here to say "you're" and back out again so I'm stuck here. You win this one.

Anyways, I think we all know about Falcom and their perks by now. Old, influential, Terry-like situation, we've heard it all before. I won't be able to write very much relative to three different characters, but my stance on things is that Trails actually seems bigger than Ys, at least from what I've seen. Granted, this is all just personal experience, but from what I've seen all the Falcom fan groups are like 90% Trails, with a handful of everything else on the side. Couple that with how Falcom's schedule throughout the 2010's is basically "Two Trails games, one Ys game" spread out across three years, it just feels like Trails is Falcom's darling nowadays. I'll admit, I am a little jealous...

For Trails specifically, I'd place Estelle over Rean in terms of likelihood. Estelle basically set the standard for Trails protagonists, and as the anniversary logo Cutie Gwen posted shows, she still gets top billing. That being said, I don't know enough about Trails to elaborate beyond Estelle having a big stick and Rean having a katana (And a big mecha apparently? Also some sort of special power. Dunno how big a spoiler they are, so I'm playing it safe.

For Adol's abilities, I've just accepted he'll get a ton of Roy 2 quips at his expense. But hey, that's fine by me, because the sheer amount of dopamine he would cause me to generate would outweigh all the criticisms he'd get combined. Ys VIII sits at the very top of my favorite games list. It's everything I was looking for; Snappy controls, fast-paced combat, a metroidvania-esque exploration and progression system (Right down to the map-making!), and blistering electric guitars all throughout. In fact, the reason I jumped to buy it so quickly was because it's actually eerily close to a game idea I had been going over in my head. To see this wonderful game get represented in Smash would be nothing short of amazing.
Adol himself is also rated pretty high for my favorite characters; He kills demons, gods, and ancient machines annually, damaged a monster that could supposed only be harmed by Emelas with nothing but a mundane steel sword, and killed a giant monster in gladiatorial combat after being whipped for days, with only the third-worst gear in the game and a single potion, WHILE SHIRTLESS. Not to mention his sheer determination in the true ending of Ys VIII, which I won't elaborate on for spoiler reasons.

Moveset-wise, his main shtick would be having a lot more multi-hits and combo extenders than the average swordie. Going into detail, there's a fair bit more we could do. For magic artifacts, there's the three weapons from Ys VI, the three bracelets from Oath in Felghana. In terms of natural abilities, there's the Flash Guard and Flash Move from the more recent games, plus laser swords and tornadoes for some reason. I dunno, he's not magical or anything. I guess he just swings that sword of his really, really hard.

Overall, I'd individually rate Adol 35%, Estelle 35%, and Rean 30%, chance-wise. In terms of want, Adol gets a full 100%, while Estelle and Rean both get 60% - Nothing against them, but Adol is extremely fierce competition.

 

[Coconattsu]

I've been waiting for this one for a while I usually love Falcom games so I have to give my thoughts as well. While I generally dislike using the word "deserving", if there's a company that does deserve it for their legacy, it's them. As it has been mentioned here previously, they pioneered the genre and PC gaming in Japan and were really successful at the time as well.

But that's then and this is now. Are they relevant today? Well, sort of. Both Ys and Trails are still relatively niche, especially in the west. Although thanks to their publishing partners I can safely say that this is changing at a great pace. From having only Ys 8 on the Switch, they managed to push all their most recent titles to the console, so they really wanted to have a presence on it. It's too early to tell if this was a great move on their part or not, but it has definitely made them more known.

With all that being said... for the chances and wants:

Adol Christin:

Chance: 25%

Pretty much the face of the company, or at least has been for a long time, maybe not anymore with how Trails currently stands. He's the recurrent protagonist of almost every Ys game, which is Falcom's longest-running franchise to date, at least by name if you count Dragon Slayer as part of The Legend of Heroes. I think he'd fit in pretty well in Smash as well but other than that I don't have much else to say about him.

Want: 55%

Honestly, if I had to choose from the three, he's the one I'd prefer the least, simply because I'm much more into Trails than I am into Ys. Simple bias speaking here. No doubt in my mind that the music he'd bring would be bangers, like most Falcom music; and that his playstyle would be very fast-paced and fun, which I'm all for.

Rean Schwarzer:

Chance: 25%

Rean is the most recent Trails protagonist, so he does have the recency advantage over Estelle, and not to mention being the protagonist of the games that were ported to the Switch. So that's already two things he has over her as the potential rep for the series. I'd give him the same chance as Adol because I think both Ys and Trails are equally important to Falcom today (if anything, Trails has the edge there). So I don't think one has priority over the other. Nintendo may think otherwise, but that's just how I see it.

Want: 90%

Not my Trails rep of choice, but I would be really happy to get him regardless. He really did grow on me after finishing all the Trails of Cold Steel games and I think he would be tons of fun with his Crafts (special moves) and Arts (magic). I can definitely understand how people do not want him at first glance, though. Also, again, Falcom music.

Estelle Bright:

Chance: 25%

Huh, 25% as well? Yeah, to me, she's too important to Trails to give her a lower score than Rean. It's a 3-sided coin flip between these 3 characters. Estelle may not have the recency advantage, but she has many other things going for her: Being the first protagonist and the face of the Trails series, having that bo-staff fighting style that makes her stand out more as a fighter, which I think could be a decision point if and when presented the choice.

Want: 100%

Hands down, not only my most wanted for Smash but also my favorite character in media altogether. Such an amazingly written character in every way. Unique combat style that would be amazing to see translated to Smash, with a bit of elemental magic here and there. I don't think anything else would top for this for me, she's also the main reason I got into speculation for this game. In my eyes, there's just simply no better pick.

No noms.

Gen 8 prediction: 10%

(I accidentally pressed send before finishing, so, EDITED)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I debated whether or not I wanted to pop in here, but then I noticed Adol's surname didn't have an "H" in it for the title. This cannot go unnoticed, but I can't just pop in here to say "you're" and back out again so I'm stuck here. You win this one.

Anyways, I think we all know about Falcom and their perks by now. Old, influential, Terry-like situation, we've heard it all before. I won't be able to write very much relative to three different characters, but my stance on things is that Trails actually seems bigger than Ys, at least from what I've seen. Granted, this is all just personal experience, but from what I've seen all the Falcom fan groups are like 90% Trails, with a handful of everything else on the side. Couple that with how Falcom's schedule throughout the 2010's is basically "Two Trails games, one Ys game" spread out across three years, it just feels like Trails is Falcom's darling nowadays. I'll admit, I am a little jealous...

For Trails specifically, I'd place Estelle over Rean in terms of likelihood. Estelle basically set the standard for Trails protagonists, and as the anniversary logo Cutie Gwen posted shows, she still gets top billing. That being said, I don't know enough about Trails to elaborate beyond Estelle having a big stick and Rean having a katana (And a big mecha apparently? Also some sort of special power. Dunno how big a spoiler they are, so I'm playing it safe.

For Adol's abilities, I've just accepted he'll get a ton of Roy 2 quips at his expense. But hey, that's fine by me, because the sheer amount of dopamine he would cause me to generate would outweigh all the criticisms he'd get combined. Ys VIII sits at the very top of my favorite games list. It's everything I was looking for; Snappy controls, fast-paced combat, a metroidvania-esque exploration and progression system (Right down to the map-making!), and blistering electric guitars all throughout. In fact, the reason I jumped to buy it so quickly was because it's actually eerily close to a game idea I had been going over in my head. To see this wonderful game get represented in Smash would be nothing short of amazing.

Ending days on mobile late at night ends up with at least one mess up like this every few months or so. I’m pretty sure the other situations this happened were messing up Reimu’s last name or one instance where I completely messed up which day it was for two days in a row.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: League of Legends rep pre-Rean Schwarzer/Estelle Bright/Adol Christin

Mii Costume: 2B x270
Meat Boy x265
Junpei (Zero Escape) x260
[Rerate] Louie x255
Senator Armstrong x240
Corvo Attano x235
Tetra x230

250 - 201

Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x220
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x210

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x187
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Octoling x178
Boss: Rayquaza x175
Ratchet & Clank x175
Gunvolt x160
Pyramid Head x160

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
Echo (Bowser) x128
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Ori x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Eggman x11
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
[Rerate] Eggman x5
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
[Rerate] Sora x4
Firebrand x1

Senator Armstrong outranks Corvo Attano, wins fifth place.

Pyramid Head cleaves into 150 noms.

Today's newcomers are Bandana Dee (25 noms), Sora (with 4) and the concepts Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass and Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits (both with 5 noms).

 

[chocolatejr9]

I wanted to write something for Adol, but I'm honestly pretty tired today, so I'm gonna abstain.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstain. Not really knowledgeable on these JRPGs.

Noms: Corvo x5

 

[Blankiturayman]

Hello, I haven't posted in a while here, but I wanted to chime in for these characters regardless (particularly Estelle who I like the most out of the three). In the ratings, I'll try to keep in mind that there's only one character left.

Adol from Ys (still surprised it's "Eese")
Chance: 14%
He's been rated here before I believe. Ys is a long series with a good amount of history behind it, if there's any you could say is Falcom's biggest and most iconic, it's definitely this one. Falcom has been making its way into Nintendo for a while now with lots of games on Switch, but even despite that while Ys has mostly stayed niche, it's been around since 1987, that's about one year after the first Zelda released to give a comparison. Falcom has been making games even before Ys, but since we're looking at that in particular I'm just mentioning that one.

Regarding Adol himself, in comparison to his Trails peers he's an easy choice to make because he's the protagonist in every Ys game. For Falcom, he's one of their characters that have been around the longest and to continue staying alive through new games. In essence, it'd be like if you took Terry from SNK's variety of characters. Even still, I feel it's a hard choice for the final character, although the final choice tends to be a smaller sized character, and while I don't feel that this is an absolute by any means, he'd fit that bill since despite Ys' long-running status it has remained niche in the bigger sphere. As always, who knows, it's pretty hard to gauge who's coming.

Want: 80%
He's not my main choice from Falcom but I'd be pretty cool with it, even now. Just the prospect of having Ys music is great. I really hope that if they chose him they'd add stuff like bumping and his magic attacks to make him more fun. Seeing how they're adding a ton of stuff into Kazuya I think it wouldn't be too farfetched to have a "bump system" for Adol. I know the games have long since been removed from that sort of thing by having a more action-like gameplay, but it'd still be pretty fun. One way or another we'd be getting Ys music as mentioned and that's awesome.

Rean of the Coldsteels
Chance: 8%
Within the Trails series there are many different story sections with different protagonists for each one. The longest-running as of yet and the most recent not counting the upcoming game Kuro no Kiseki stars Rean Schwarzer, in the "Trails of Cold Steel" games. This is probably one of the most popular parts in the Trails series, helped both by selling a lot and having various rereleases. As of now, the whole of "Cold Steel" is localized up to 4; not including Hajimari which is more of its own thing to end the series as a whole to that point. It includes Rean but he's not the sole lead.

With all this being said, it's true Rean is one of the more popular characters due to his recency and continous appareances from Cold Steel being pretty long, but that's all he'd have going for him in comparison to the other two. I suppose it can happen, he at least has better chances than Lloyd (Bannings of course, from Zero/Ao) sadly enough because I'd prefer Lloyd too. Still, it is the last character, so it'd be a pretty odd pick.

Want: 60%
Well I've played some Cold Steel-- but I think I wouldn't be too fond of him in comparison to the others. I can imagine him relying more on his crafts rather than orbments, sort of how Cloud doesn't use materia at all and has limit breaks for all his specials. Rean has an "ogre mode" that boosts his power, which I could see being implemented in a similar way to what we've seen of Kazuya's devil form. I'd always be good with the music at least, Falcom really doesn't disappoint in that aspect.

Estelle, the sun
Chance: 11%
I'm giving her a little leeway here. Estelle wasn't the first protagonist of "Legend of Heroes", but she was the one that started the current ongoing series that seems to have remained, Trails. Despite being the most prominent in the first two games, she has reappeared a lot since due to her overall importance in the story. According to Kondo, the main director for the series, Estelle is the character he holds closest to him since she was the first he wrote. Despite being in the first series, Estelle has also remained pretty popular with the fans and kept her prominence for the series itself, being featured in anniversary images on front and the like. While as a whole Trails doesn't have as much legacy as Ys does, it's clear that nowadays Trails is the series Falcom is keen on using more. It's even building legacy of its own since it's been around for a while by now. Estelle would have both the popularity and legacy on her side in terms of Trails, which makes me think she has a better chance than the other protagonists of it, even if it's not all that much.

Want: 100%
I was surprised by how much I liked Trails in the Sky when I tried it out on a whim all these years ago. Estelle's a great protagonist and she has a weapon-type that hasn't seen much use in Smash, surprisingly since the roster is already huge. With her staff moves plus her generally having a wider orbment variety to use, I could see her being a more mixed character between crafts and orbal arts, much like Hero varies between both sword techniques and magic. Estelle is, even now, my favorite protagonist in the series so I'd love to see her. Behind her, I think Kevin and Lloyd are pretty good too.

That's that for the three.
For Nominations: give all that I got to Gunvolt. That'd be fun.

 

[Inue Houji]

Abstaining, I love Ys, and I'm interested in Trails, but I'm not in the mood to write right now.

Predictions
Pokémon: 41.4%

Nominations
Ratchet & Clank x5

 

[DaUsername]

Triple abstain.

Gen 8 prediction: 50%
Garchomp prediction: 5%
Decidueye prediction: 15%

Noms: Senator Armstrong x Max

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Day should've ended by now tbh

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day should've ended by now tbh

I extended it due to the holiday weekend. Wanted to make sure that everyone had their chance to post.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Double posting now to post my scores and end the day

I am going to take a different approach and just make the case for each and then give my scores, since these three all are relatively intertwined.

Adol:

There are a few different avenues that CP11 could go through, but one I have seen floated around a lot is a Terry sort of pick. SNK and Fatal Fury were not the biggest names in gaming, but they left an impact and were known for how much they helped shape their genre and their legacy. If you want to find something similar enough, Falcom would probably be one of the closest things you could get to that. Falcom, while a smaller company, has been incredibly influential historically in the JRPG field and has gone strong today with a comeback. It almost reminds me of how SNK was on the rise for the latter half of the past decade leading up to Terry in Smash.

If you wish to go with a pure legacy pick, Adol makes a ton of sense. Ys is an ongoing series, with Ys IX coming to the Switch this year. Ys also has the benefit over Trails of being a much older series…kind of. While Trails/The Legend of Heroes does have its roots in the Dragon Slayer series, the evolution from one to the other is a bit weird and trails as a series seems to have taken over. Meanwhile, Ys is still Ys at the end of the day. It is still Adol going on his adventures and remembering them years later. If you wish to go with something purely leaning the legacy route, Adol is your guy.


Estelle:

Ironically, despite being Falcom’s baby of the three at least according to some anniversary artwork, I would say that Estelle is in the worst spot. This is mainly due to the nasty fact the Sky trilogy is still not on the Switch. CS 3-4 are on the Switch in the west and CS 1-2 are coming to the switch in Japan (and I would say a localization so long as they can work things out with X Seed could easily happen), but the Sky trilogy has not come to the Switch yet. Ironically, Estelle’s main appearance on the switch is in the CS tetralogy. Now, this puts us in a bit of a situation that might be comparable to Cloud vs say Black Mage, but I think the difference here is nowhere near as clear cut. While Cloud had a lacking Nintendo connection at the time, FF7 is no contest the biggest game in the series. Meanwhile, Sky vs CS is a lot more contestable in terms of size and how beloved they are.



Rean:

Rean, meanwhile, benefits from being the new hotness of around when FP 1-2 would have been considered. The Cold Steel tetralogy started in 2013 and wrapped up in 2019 (or 2021 in the West), which likely would have been when a character would have been chosen. Rean is the main star of the tetralogy, so likely he would be the focus. While Trails is moving away from the CS series as soon as this fall with a new Trails game coming out in Japan, I doubt that this will be the last we see of Rean. Given that we have had multiple Trails callbacks, including Estelle in the Cold Steel games, Rean likely will end up showing up again in a future Trails game. It also helps that Cold Steel did help the series grow even more than Sky.



Essentially, I think the question boils down to what you expect CP11 to be. If you expect something more in Terry’s direction, Adol makes perfect sense. Estelle can be argued to have this position as well, but as stated above I am not that confident in that line of thinking. Rean meanwhile fits the bill if you just expect something smaller that would disappoint most people. A character like Rean almost is perfectly crafted to make Smash fans seethe as a final reveal. A JRPG swordsman who is relatively niche who came at the end that benefits reasonably well from timing? If he was from Fire Emblem it would be a perfect storm. Honestly, between Adol and Rean I flip flop a bit on who I would say is more likely. It depends honestly on my mood of whether I tilt towards hope or despair for the community. So…



Adol: 30% Chance

Estelle:15% Chance

Rean: 35% Chance

The way I always looked at chance is something akin to betting odds. Obviously, I do not think there is a 80% chance we get a falcom character. But I think Adol and Rean rn are solid bets, while Estelle is a decent dark horse choice

Want

Adol 100%

Rean 100%

Estelle 100%

I will talk about Estelle first because I have the least connection to her. I am currently playing through CS 1 and my playthrough has been put on a temporary hiatus. That being said, I can tell from what I know of Falcom’s games that I would be down with Estelle. One thing she has that I think would be fun over the other two is she would feel more…unique. Personally, I am fine with a JRPG swordsman, so long as they feel distinct enough from the rest of the roster. I loved Sephiroth and the Aegis for this, and I disliked Byleth’s execution because of this as well. Estelle would be unique because she does not use a sword, which I think would make the reception towards her less…toxic. It also helps that from the little tidbits of the Sky Trilogy I have seen (I have been trying to avoid spoilers myself), she seems fun enough. Also it would make someone I know who used to frequent these threads in base game very happy.

Adol meanwhile, I have a bit more of a connection with. I have played a bit of Ys VIII and III, with plans to play through more. The Ys games, they are fun. Adol is cool enough. But honestly, I am giving him a 100% want just because the Ys soundtrack slaps. Listen to theme of Adol 1994 and tell me that is not a perfect song for smash. I dare you. The Ys soundtrack is full of bangers. The thought of Falcom pulling an SNK and giving us 50+ songs of Ys goodness makes me drool. Also, I think he would be fun enough. But for real, this is mainly because of that kicking soundtrack.

Rean meanwhile despite me only playing about a third or a half of CS1, is one of my most wanted. I have not enjoyed a traditional JRPG like this this much since Persona 5 or TWEWY, both two of my favorite games of all time. I love the character interactions in CS1. The world feels like it has so much stuff to do. The combat system honestly is one of the most fun in a turn based JRPG I have seen in ages. Honestly, if you have a decent enough PC, a PS3, or a PS4, I implore you to give CS1 a try. I am playing it on the PS4, and in case you are impatient with JRPGS, there is a built in turbo button that basically speeds up the game a ton. While this can lead to cutscenes being a bit…differently paced, it is a blast to just zip around and not have to struggle with the rest of a JRPG’s length. CS1, and from what I have listened to, the rest of the Cold Still Tetralogy, have a soundtrack that gives Ys a run for its money. Honestly, I could gush more, but there is a reason I nominated him all the way up.


Octoling x 30 (I hope you are happy Rie Sonomura )

Gen 8: 24.44% (Y'all will overrate this imo)
Decidueye 15.55%
Garchomp 11.11%

Today we are going all the way to Galar...and Sinnoh...and a bit of Alola? Rate Concept: Gen 8 pokemon, Garchomp, and Decidueye today in chance and want. Also predict how Layton and Monokuma will do.

 

[Sari]

Pokemon songs for today:

Spoiler: Pokemon Music

Gonna post my ratings in a separate post.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon

10% Chance

…I don’t really think this is the front runner some of yall think it is.

For starters, I am putting aside the spirit event for this. After the Heihachi mii, I do not want to dabble into whether or not that is a death knell or not. But my kicker here is Voice/Cheer theory.

For those that do not know the theory, the theory consists of how Nintendo did not rehire the European cheer teams for Smash Ultimate FP2. They kept the Japanese team, the Korean team, and the American team. The problem here though is that if you choose a Gen 8 pokemon, you have to deal with the fact that they have different names in basically every region.

But even beyond that, part of me feels that Nintendo might choose not to actively shill Gen 8 right now. Gen 8 came out in late 2019. By the time FP2 wraps up, it will be almost two years old. Given how for the final reps, such as Corrin or Byleth, Nintendo chose something more recent to promote, I could see Gen 8 just getting snubbed.

I feel this caught on as much as it did because something boring like Cinderace is a worst case scenario for FP2. People want to ready themselves for a Byleth like ending. While I respect that, I personally doubt that this is going to be our ending.

10% Want

This is not just a **** pokemon post, as you will see below. But god, I would be very disappointed with a gen 8 pokemon. Unless it is Dragapult, that would slap.

The more time goes on, the more I look at the pokemon that people toss around from Galar for smash and the more I groan. Rillaboom? Used to love it, now my love died down. Cinderace? Same thing. Toxtricity? I used to enjoy the idea of it in smash, but now I just do not feel it. This might just be me, but Gen 8 did not introduce too many pokemon I really like. The Galaran forms were cool, especially Slowking, Obstagoon, and the birds. Dragapult is cool as well. But there are just a lot of meh pokemon. This is putting aside my gripes with Sword and shield as a whole, which I mull if it or X and Y is the second worst pokemon games after Gen 1 which has aged like milk. But god, I would not want a Gen 8 rep that is not Dragapult.

Garchomp

5% Chance

Garchomp itself is the obvious choice for a second gen 4 rep if you want to shill BDSP. It is the second most popular gen 4 pokemon by a lot after Lucario…and that’s the problem. The perfect character to shill BDSP is already in Smash. I personally could see Nintendo theoretically wishing to push something and Garchomp is a feasible 2021 shill rep at the end of the day. But when you have the negatives of voice theory combined with so much competition, both from other games to shill and other characters at large, I just do not feel it.

100% Want

I mean, its ****ing Garchomp. Garchomp is one of the coolest pokemon of all time. It’s a land shark of death that travels at mach speeds. I would honestly love to just tear my opponents apart with the land shark, he is awesome. One of my all time favorite pokemon. Also, it would likely mean that we may finally get more Sinnoh music, so we can rectify the sin of no Giratina battle or Lake Spirit battle in smash.

Decidueye

10% Chance

Decidueye in Smash speculation has been interesting. He went from a frontrunner, to a joke after Incineroar, to now a generally murmured sleeper pick of sorts. Let’s start with the idea of second chance theory. This has been tossed around of how Smash FP2 has brought forward a lot of ideas that were on the cutting room floor at one point. Steve and Sephiroth had their negotiations go on for a long time from what we know, ARMS and XC2 missed the boat barely for base game, and Sakurai dabbled with a Tekken moveset in the past. We know that Sakurai did consider Decidueye but chose Incineroar to rep gen 7 instead.

Now, with Legends Arceus on the horizon for January, the stilt owl once again has a chance to become the shill rep he was always meant to be. The fac that Sakurai entertained the possibility of putting him in before combined with how Second Chance theory is still holding strong made me re evaluate him a little bit more and bump him up. That being said, cheer theory does make me a tad skeptical still. Overall, a solid dark horse pick if you need a shill rep.

100% Want

Unlike most of the Gen 8 frontrunners, I actually like Decidueye. It is probably my second favorite Gen 7 pokemon after Lycanroc Dusk (who should have been the base game gen 7 rep don’t @ me). I would honestly be down to clown with Decidueye in smash. It also helps that honestly, Decidueye fits smash so well. The idea of just playing as this ghostly archer just tickles my fancy. I love the idea of spirit shackling people in place and slowly whittling them down. I would also love to have a Gen 7 rep I really like in smash, instead of one that I only like after it grew on me.

Also getting Lusamine Mother Beast and Ultra Necrozma would be good.

Octoling x 30

Layton 13.31%
Monkuma 15.51%

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on Decidueye and Garchomp.

hoo boy

Chance: 30%
I'll admit that the previous Spirit Event...doesn't inspire much confidence. However, I still think it has a bit of a fighting chance (however small) for a two reasons:

1. happened depsite Heihachi being a Mii Costume in the same pass (granted, this was likely a classic Harada troll move, but I digress)
2. Only 7 out of the 81 new Pokémon and 13 regional forms introduced in SwSh were used for Spirits, and 5 of them (the starters and the legendaries) were grouped together

Want: 80%
There are other characters I want more, but I will defend Gen 8 until I die; it's definitely got its flaws, but I really don't think it deserves all the hate it gets. Sword is one of my favorite Switch games, and I'd be more than happy to see a 'mon from it (be it Cinderace or Toxtricity, two favorites of mine) in Smash.

Layton: 15%
Monokuma: 50%

Noms:
Dr. Eggman x3
Sora x2

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Gen VIII Pokemon:

40%
It'd be higher back then, but the fact we're on the last character, and the sequel games(which just are DLC in name, but it's clear what they're intended to be) are already being sold for over a year, means it's not simply a matter of promotion. However, many Pokemon are there despite not promoting games that are coming out within the year. Incineroar was released well after the sales were done, etc. I still think it has a decent chance, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the sequel games(in practice) got their own Spirit Event. Most of the other series are not similar to Pokemon's situation either. It's not a matter of them being exceptional alone either. It's a matter of a very unique circumstance of how the games are being done right now. That said, it doesn't mean that a sequel of a specific Pokemon game would've done much, but I don't believe the Spirit Event is nearly as meaningful as others due to this unique circumstance.

Want: 100%.
Another great Generation full of topnotch Pokemon. Also would be a nice way to blow speculation out of the water, even if it's somewhat of a unique circumstance.

Decidueye:

10%
They already pretty much promoted the hell out of Gen VII. It's not even that recent anymore to justify a character. Why would Nintendo choose it? Sakurai, sure, if he had control over the DLC. That'd absolutely be a good choice. Don't get me wrong, I'm aware of another game that it's in recently, but there's not really a strong reason for Nintendo to suggest this one.

Want: 80%
No dedicated archer moveset? Check, please!

Garchomp:

20%
This one is a bit better, but only due to actual new games(full out remakes) coming out. Gen IV is a major favorite, more than some, so it's not impossible. I don't think it's all that likely at this time either way.

Want: N/A
Honestly Gen IV I didn't like that much, but I barely used Garchomp so I can't legitimately rate it.

In all cases, there's no lack of Spirit Board options, as they don't have to be from the same Gen either. So I'm not taking that into account among these ratings.

Layton: 25%
Monokuma: 17%

Noms: Fulgore x 5(unless I missed his day?)

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 20% - I'm nowhere near as confident as I used to be. Spirit event first and foremost, we have precedent that spirit events don't happen if a character is happening. Furthermore, the further we get from Sword and Shield's release, the less likely a promotional pick becomes. Sword and Shield don't have any more DLC in the pipeline as far as we're all aware, and TCPI's focus has shifted towards Legends Arceus and Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl. Granted, these characters were planned back in 2019 when Sword and Shield were still fresh, but if we were getting a Gen 8 rep then it likely would've happened earlier in the pass, likely in place of someone like Min Min. That way the rep would've arrived in the middle of the game's DLC. Granted, Gen 8 is still a strong possibility, but I'm nowhere near as confident in it as I used to be.

Want: 20% - I love Pokemon, and Gen 8 has some great designs, so there's definitely a lot of fun choices. But with how overall meh the games turned out to be, and how much baggage the entire generation has had, it's difficult to cheer for Gen 8 representation. Furthermore, it'd be a blatant promotional pick, and I tend to dislike shills unless it's a character that I like A LOT. Granted, a choice like Toxtricity would be super cool, but Pokemon tends to prioritize Pokemon that marketing pushes rather than what naturally became popular (Unless you get special privileges like that God d*** sparkle fox). So I can imagine that we'd get a less creative choice for the Gen 8 rep. Now, I still love the bizarre and unique designs the Pokmon fighters bring to the roster, and even Cinderace has a lot to offer design-wise. But with a single slot left Gen 8 would be a lame way to end things off.


Garchomp

Chance: 30% - FP11 will more than likely be announced or released around the time Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl release. This game is a big focus for TCPI this year and a Sinnoh promotional pick is definitely in the cards. Granted, the absolute BEST Pokemon to promote the games would be Lucario, but he's already in Smash! So we go with the runner up in popularity, Garchomp! He's no stranger to marketing either, being both the big pseudo-legend for Gen 4 and Champion Cynthia's ace, so he's definitely a contender to keep an eye on! Really, Garchomp's only real issue is other potential shill reps (looking at you, Nahobino....).

Want: 70% - Now THIS is a shill rep done right! While introduced for marketing purposes, Garchomp still built a natural fanbase and has relevance that has endured throughout the years! Plus, more Gen 4 music and content would be fantastic, and re don't have a playable Dragon or Ground type yet, so Garchomp definitely brings a lot to the table! Dragons are awesome, and a fast striker like Garchomp sounds extremely fun to play as! While I'd personally want to see a different Gen 4 rep like Drifblim (my signature Pokemon!) or Infernape (my all-time favorite starter), and the fact that we only have one slot left, if we got Garchomp I certainly wouldn't complain! It's a fun choice, another representative for a great Gen (and WAY better than yet another Gen 1 pick...), and represents two unrepresented types!


Decidueye

Chance: 30% - Definitely another heavy-hitter to look out for. Decidueye is another Pokemon that could easily act as a shill rep, this time for Legends: Arceus, which releases early next year. But that isn't the owl's only claim to fame. Sakurai himself considered Decidueye as the Gen 7 rep during the base game development, and Second Chance Theory has held true for a lot of other characters, so these two factors combine to give Decidueye a genuinely good shot. And while glitch speculation is very flakey, there was a glitch discovered recently involving the pathing of Dark Pit's arrows. Decidueye's Spirit Shackle ingame is represented by an arrow looping around and pinning the target's shadow, so clearly an arrow move is being used as a base for something!

Want: 90% - Yes please! I adored Gen 7 (especially the anime) and seeing it get more content would be a dream come true! It's criminal that so much great Gen 7 music is missing, and we didn't even get a stage! And Alola has so many fantastic locales that would make for great stage locations! Furthermore, Decidueye itself is another shill rep done right, and a pure archer character that would bring a lot to the table! While it'd be another starter, we don't have a playable Ghost-type yet, and Decidueye has more than enough to make it stand out! Decidueye would be a wonderful choice that would both be fun to play and give Gen 7 the content it deserves!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x10

Predictions:
Professor Layton - 10.22% - While it is the season of smaller characters, the trouble Level-5 has been going through lately, along with his series being on hiatus for 4 years and competition with his own daughter, things aren't looking good for the professor.

Monokuma - 52.83% - This community's love for Danganronpa (which still baffles me) along with the recent port/game effect and smaller characters season means that there's going to be plenty of high scores thrown at the bear.

 

[fogbadge]

who hasnt caught them all at this point?

chances: gen 8 pokemon 50% other two 0%. i am operating under the assumption that the crowd theory did not come from a legitimate source. now pokemon's main focus is usually the latest gen and the first so if there was to be another pokemon itd be one of them. ive always maintained its likely that nintendo has been suggesting characters from all their big switch titles and that pokemon would be no exception. and i imagine TPC would insist on sword and shield (maybe go). i doubt the remakes or legends will matter in the long run after all, HGSS, ORAS and let's go didnt seem to increase anyones chances. the only ones that might have done are FRLG and even then can we be sure it did anything but affect PT's appearance? plus gen 1 always get special treatment. so i can perfectly belive we'll get a pokemon at the end i just dont think itll be from anything before gen 8.

want: decidueye 100% garchomp 75% gen 8 depends. decidueye has become one of my favourite starters and i feel hed have been amazing in smash. garchomp is pretty cool and would make for a fun smasher. now as for then the gen 8 crew obviously it will alter a lot on who it is. eiscue or polteagiest 100% cinderace 0%. ive got nothing against cinderace but i do have something against what hes based on. which is why bugs me that he seems to be GF and TPC's favourite and gets the special treatment. but gen 8 has so many great pokemon who would make smash fighters like no other. give me a teapot ghost or an apple dragon any day.

all noms to spirit events continue after pass

 

[Perkilator]

Funny coincidence that a Gen 8 Mon is one of the concepts we're rating today:

Smash commission lite for @PhotonKraken of Pincurchin! pic.twitter.com/r9p6buct7F

— Ryan's Art Account (@TKOWL_Art) June 22, 2021

 

[BowserKing]

Garchomp

Chance: 15%. With Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shiny Pearl coming this year, Garchomp’s chance has increased quite a bit. Of course, while it made a cameo in the Kalos stage, Garchomp is a species and I think that could spare it.

Want: 85%. Garchomp would totally be fun to play as, and I can see it and Lucario gang up on multiple Pokémon. Also we need a Dragon Type and Ground Type Pokémon and Garchomp fits both roles. Overall, Garchomp would be a brilliant choice for a Smash Bros rep.

Decidueye

Chance: 15%. Decidueye was considered for Ultimate, but Incineroar got in. However with Pokémon Legends: Arceus coming soon, Decidueye’s chance has increased quite a bit, giving that Pokémon a chance.

Want: 95%. Decidueye would totally Ben fun to play as, and I can see Decidueye and Incineroar tag team against other Pokémon in a match. Also we need a Ghost Type Pokémon. Overall, Decidueye would make a epic choice for a Smash Bros rep.

Gen 8 Pokémon

Chance: 30%. While we did have a spirit event, it only showed 7 Pokémon, so the chance is still a chance of a Pokémon from the generation to be playable. The question is who?

Want: 95%. A Pokémon from the Galar region would totally be fun to play as, but which one is the best fit. The best fit would be Dragapult, for having unique abilities and being a Dragon Type and Ghost Type Pokémon. For personal bias, I’m picking Boltund, for having deadly electric attacks, but also having Dark and Fairy Type moves as well. Overall, a Pokémon from the Galar region would be an Epic Choice for a Smash Bros Rep.

Prediction: Monokuma (15%) and Layton (10%)

Noms: 5 for Lugia

FWI, I made a Lugia support thread many days ago

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Rean Schwarzer/Estelle Bright/Adol Christin pre-Decidueye/Garchomp/Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon

Junpei (Zero Escape) x285
Mii Costume: 2B x275
Meat Boy x270
[Rerate] Louie x265
Senator Armstrong x245
Octoling x243
Corvo Attano x240

250 - 201

Tetra x230
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x220
Gunvolt x220
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x215

200 - 151

Pyramid Head x190
Stage: Bowser's Castle x187
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Ratchet & Clank x180
Boss: Rayquaza x175

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Monika x135
Echo (Bowser) x133
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ori x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Eggman x11
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
[Rerate] Eggman x7
[Rerate] Sora x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Firebrand x1

Junpei outwits Meat Boy and Mii Costume: 2B and reclaims first place. Octoling splats her way into the top 7, taking out Tetra and capturing sixth place from Corvo Attano.

Gunvolt shoots past 200 noms.

Ori ventures past 50 noms.

Triple abstain.

Gen 8 prediction: 50%
Garchomp prediction: 5%
Decidueye prediction: 15%

Noms: Senator Armstrong x Max

I'm assuming that this x Max doesn't include any extra noms right?

 

[Sari]

Decidueye

Chance: 2%
Decidueye has gotten a lot of traction lately due to characters like Min Min, Pythra, and Kazuya getting in. All three characters are from games that Sakurai considered to be added in the past (ARMS and Xenoblade 2 for Ultimate’s base game, Tekken for Smash 4). As it turns out, Decidueye was also considered for the base game so they’re in a somewhat similar position. Additionally, Decidueye (well, technically Rowlet) is one of the starters in the new Arceus game. So with all of this, how do I feel about Decidueye’s chances? Sadly, I still don’t see them happening.

The main difference between the 3 FP2 characters I mentioned and Decidueye is that their games didn’t have a rep in Smash. But Gen VII already is represented in the form of Incineroar who Sakurai directly said was chosen over Decidueye. With Gen VII already represented and Gen VIII being a thing well before FP2 was finalized, I don’t see Sakurai double dipping with another Galar character. As for Decidueye being in the Arceus game, I don’t think it means much since they’re going for the more unique starters that would fit the setting more (like with Oshawott/Samurott). Plus I really don’t see that game getting a promotional character anyway.

Want: 75%
Back during Ultimate’s base game I would’ve rated this much higher, but my fatigue of Pokemon has grown and grown over the past few years (more on that in a bit). Decidueye is still pretty cool and I would’ve happily taken it over Incineroar. If it actually did get in then I’d be pretty happy since the Rowlet line is one of my favorite starter branches and Decidueye is just such a great Pokemon both in design and moveset potential.

-----


Garchomp

Chance: 1%
We already have Lucario serving as our Gen IV rep. I think Gen IV has enough content as is so I really don’t see them adding yet another rep from it when there are a ton of other Pokemon options. Yes we do have these two Gen IV games coming up, but I just don’t see us getting another rep from it when Gen VIII exists. Even Decidueye has the advantage over Garchomp due to being directly considered by Sakurai and the fact that we don’t have a Gen VII stage. Also yes I am aware that Garchomp is very popular, but if we’re adding Pokemon based on their general popularity then I could see someone like Eevee getting in first.

Want: 40%
Garchomp is probably one of the coolest looking Sinnoh Pokemon. If we had to get another Gen IV rep after Lucario, Garchomp would probably be my first choice. But like I said before, I think Gen IV has enough representation already. If we’re going for past Gen reps, I’d much prefer a Hoenn or Unova rep which we currently do not have. Granted I did give Decidueye a higher score, but that’s because I like it much more and would be alright with a brand new Alola stage.

-----


Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 60%
Yeah I’m still thinking this may actually happen. I am one of those people that feels like Smash has a tendency to have that forced promotional pick at the very end of a speculation period (Corrin, Byleth, also Bayo/Incineroar to a certain extent). Sword/Shield is - and was pretty much always guaranteed to be - one of the biggest games on the Switch. To really grasp how well it did, it actually sold faster than Ultimate in it's first week. For it to get nothing outside of that tiny spirit event feels just… really weird to the point where I think we’ll actually be getting a rep from it.

In regards to crowd chant theory: I don't really buy it since there are just so many factors in play that could explain why we don't have European crowd chants for any of the FP2 characters. These include COVID, general corner cutting whenever possible (see Alex's crowd chant being "Alex-u" in places outside of Japan), the English crowd chants for FP2 only starting with Sephiroth, and much more. It's definitely one of the better theories out there but right now I'm not convinced of it.

Furthermore, we’re getting Kazuya despite the Heihachi costume being released with Min Min. I’m going to wait for the Kazuya presentation to see exactly what Sakurai says about that, but as it stands now it seems like things like DLC costumes/spirit events won’t really matter as long as it isn’t for the exact character. The Sword/Shield spirit event in particular was done as like a launch event promo for the actual game’s release, so there’s a chance it might not mean anything at all.


Want: 10%
This is pretty much just the Cinderace pity score. I think Cinderace looks cool and I’m a fan of the whole bipedal fire-type fighter trope. Blaziken has always been my favorite Pokemon so getting Cinderace in Smash would be the next best thing. Probably the only Galar Pokemon I’d welcome into Smash with open arms.

Take Cinderace out of the equation and this would be a hard 0%. I had already been losing interest in Pokemon even before Gen VIII, so needless to say I haven’t even bothered to pick up Sword/Shield. I was willing to look past the national dex cuts, but everything else about Gen VIII just looks… really bad especially when looking at how other series have made leaps in their general structure. At this rate the only thing that can redeem my interest in Pokemon is the Gen IV remakes, but knowing them they’ll mess it up somehow.

This is all without mentioning that I think Pokemon has more than enough reps at the moment and that I’m really sick of them adding characters from just the latest entries. Why not go back and add some of the more beloved Pokemon like Eevee or Meowth? I feel like this would make just about everyone a lot happier.

-----

Monokuma chance prediction: 30.00% (expecting a lot of overrates)
Layton chance prediction: 14.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x30

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Gen h8
Chance: 0.5%
While many say an underwhelming character like this would intentionally be saved for last, I feel like a SwSh Pokemon would have been shown of by now if it were to happen. It's still highest grossing franchise out there and I feel like that would take priority over a character like Min Min or Pythra. This isn't a case of ripping the bandade off early, I just don't think saving the Gen 8 mon for last makes much buisness sense. So yeah, I don't think this will happen anymore. There's still that Spirit event, we've had a Pokemon themed tourney recently and crowd cheer-theory sounds pretty convincing to me. Some say getting a Tekken character after the Heihachi costume makes everything fair game again but I don't really agree. Sounds like very reactionary speculation to me.

Want: 0%
There's a good reason this would be considered a worst-case scenario to many. I too agree that this would be tonedeaf and bring back Corrin-flashbacks. I'm not a "Pokemon bad" kind of guy but I skipped the latest games without regret. It doesn't matter which mon it would be, a Sword Shield Pokemon would just feel forced and not earned and I can't think of any lamer choice to end Smash Ultimate's roster on. Seriously, you can ask anybody who they would pick to be the last Ultimate DLC newcomer and chances are they would pick someone more exciting than whoever TPC would have in mind.

Sewer Sharks
Chance: 0%
Crowd cheer-theory applies to any potential Pokemon and I don't think gen 4 remakes will help promote anyone. Sword and Shield were released around the time the lineup of this pass was decided so I really think it's that game or bust. Also we already have Lucario and Spear pillar so more Sinnoh would be really redundant.

Want: 1%
I guess this would be cooler than a Gen 8 mon? Mind you, I've never had a Garchomp on my team so I wouldn't really be doing cartwheels over them. Also I'm just not in the mood to have a Pokemon be the last fighter regardless if they're from Sword/Shield or not.

Dec-idue-ye
Chance: 0.2%
"Whoa guys, Decidueye was considered for Ultimate's base game and now that Rowlett is a starter in Arceus, Decidueye's relevant again! Sleeper pick much?"

Nah, not really.
I know Legend Arceus is releasing early next year but I feel like it would be too late to coincide with Smash DLC. Like I said, Volume 2 and Sword/Shield happened the same year and I don't think they would add a Pokemon that wouldn't be relevant again untill another two years later. I don't believe Sakurai having considered the owl matters much, that sounds like a one n done case where Decidueye was just rejected in favor of Incinaroar to rep Sun&Moon. Sakurai probably isn't going to look back on that.

Want: 1%
During the base game I would've been okay with this. The Rowlett line is my favorite starter line from Gen 7 (even if I dropped that game pretty early). I likely would've taken it over Incinaroar, though I don't dislike the cat that much now as opposed to back then. In a post-base game world however, I've lost interest. I'm happy that it will return in Arceus. That game looks like it could have potential and I want it to win me back but I'm not stepping back on the owl train again. Honestly, I feel like he's being held up by the people really desperate for a third-stage Grass starter, they aren't wrong but imo the other two starters are also really good. Still, a Pokemon, no matter who, isn't appealing to me at the moment. I just want my hat Goomba dangit!

Monokuma: 29.46%
Layton: 8.66%
Bandana Dee x25

 

[Yiptap]

Final abstain of the abstain chain.
Noms: Meat Boy x 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

The concept that will never die

Chance: 0%
It had that Spirit Event. I would consider giving a 1% in the case that the big Heihachi Mii switcharoo meant Spirit Events don't disconfirm. But Sword and Shield have just so much going against them. First off I don't think Pokemon would be anywhere near first in line for a promotional character. It's the biggest franchise ever. Given Nintendo's 2021 schedule has been filled with riskier franchise entries I think it'd probably go to one of those if anything. Also consider the fact that Sword and Shield are two years old already. Unless they're planning a Pokemon Gun or whatever that hasn't been announced, it's just not relevant anymore. There's plenty of other Pokemon games to promote (foreshadowing!) Before anyone brings up Min Min and Pyra, those weren't promotional characters. They're just recent characters, but they were added because their games had missed the window for base game and they had people asking for reps all through base and FP1. Unfortunately I only see Pokemon getting a character on a promotional basis anymore.

Chance: 4%
Garchomp is pretty popular. There end the positives of Garchomp.

It's unlikely the Gen 4 remakes get a rep. They're remakes, those usually get squat in Smash. Gen 4 especially has it rough because Lucario is already in Smash so that base is covered. If they did it's not even a slam dunk for Garchomp, I can think of other Pokemon I could see getting a spot like Darkrai.

Honestly though if they want a promotional rep (and TPC doesn't get ****** about legendaries appearing rare) I think they might go for Arceus who would promote both this and the other game (segue!)

Dark Pit's fursona

Chance: 3.5%
I think Legends is potentially in an alright spot for a promotional rep. Yeah I know I said that Nintendo would likely go for riskier entries to promote and I stand by that. But from what it looks like, Arceus is very much a risk as far as Pokemon goes. And it needs the PR boost, not that they would have predicted that. Not sure if stealing a Smash spot would go very far in earning people's love for the game though. A point in Arceus' favor is its January 2022 release. While it might appear too late and past the deadline (and way past the expected release of FP11), to me that indicates one thing: it's a FY2021 release. Fiscal years begin and end in April, so the fact that Arceus gets an unorthodox January release date, makes me think that it was probably aimed originally as a Holiday 2021 that had to be delayed for COVID or development troubles (but can't be delayed past March because that would require that Nintendo revise their earnings expectations since it's a major title). tl;dr it's in the promotional sweetspot.

When it comes to Decidueye in particular I think it's a candidate. But easily the weakest candidate for Legends. A lot has been made about second chance theory and the sorta kinda pattern for FP2. Let's humor it: even if FP2 is revisiting old ideas that didn't come to fruition... Gen 7 did come to fruition. Incineroar got in. Decidueye wasn't excluded for tech reasons or timing or he was too hard to conceive a moveset for. Someone else was just picked over it. To me that not only annihilates any advantage previous consideration would have awarded it, but also leaves it in the unenviable position of having another Pokemon from its Gen in. Compare that to the other Legends starters: the Cyndaquil line only has Pichu, a semiclone, representing its Gen; Oshawott is from an infamously skipped over Gen. Between those two and Arceus who is, you know, in the title, I think Decidueye just doesn't have what it takes.

Want: 0%
Surprised? There are too many Pokemon in Smash. I'd rather give a spot to other franchises that actually need them. Plus there's the inevitable feeling that they'd pick a crappy one. It's gotten to the point where we can be rating blatantly "against the grain" picks like Garchomp that would be a breath of fresh air and I'm still like "nah". Gen 8 I hate the new designs for the most part, and especially the starters who would be the ones picked. Garchomp is cool I guess but doesn't feel like an omission so I can take him or leave him. And while I like Decidueye it just isn't enough to excite me. Call me when the offer is to replace Incineroar with one of these and we'll talk.

Noms: Octoling xMax
Monokuma prediction: 34.55%
Layton prediction: 18.3%
Funny the predictions should be the other way but theyre not

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Robin Hoot

Chance: 1% Decidueye's time has come and gone with Incineroar having been picked over it due to Sakurai wanting to do a wrestler, but as it turns out there might just be a chance after all, not only is Rowlet a starter in Legends Arceus, meaning Decidueye will have another chance in the spotlight, but the second pass seems to mostly be reused ideas or scrapped plans, so there's a chance that Sakurai would give this scrapped idea a new chance and that TPC would give it the ok as it lines up with a new game pretty well.

Want: 30% Truth be told I do like this feathery ****, it's neat and I'm very curious at how special moves would be handled, would Spirit Shackle have an added effect like a speed debuff to convey how the move locks opponents in? Would we get Laser Focus as a Psyche Up on command? What would the side special be? As for normals, I can imagine kicks and beating with wings so not a lot of imagination is needed. Also, we don't have the VS Tapu theme and I think that's a genuine tragedy so we could get it in with an Alola stage if we're lucky. I am however, growing a bit tired of Pokemon, not just because it already has 10 characters, but the franchise in general, so the score's a tad lowered

Watch babies play the remakes with Fairy types and go "Huh this wasn't that hard"

Chance: 1% The core argument is very similar as while it's safe to say Garchomp was never considered, we DO have BDSP coming out soon and remakes are counted for recency, see how we got the Kanto starter trio around the time FRLG came out and how Ultimate gave a good chunk of content to gen 3 which had ORAS as a recent game. Garchomp also has a benefit of being massively popular due to it's pseudo legendary status and infamy as Cynthia's ace mon, but it really depends on how much TPC wants to promote this as BDSP won't have new forms or whatnot meaning less potential merch to make off of it.

Want: 20% Truth be told, I never cared much for Garchomp, dunno, just never vibed with it, I do love Platinum for a bunch of reasons but Gible was so well hidden I never knew it could be caught early in the game until postgame of my last playthrough and Gabite was way too late for me to consider using. Even during my competitive days I never cared despite it's wellearned reputation as a game breaker. I think that like with what I had just said about Decidueye, I've just grown tired of the series, especially as I'm not sure I'll buy BDSP out of concern of it being too similar to the original games.

NON SPECIFIC GEN 8 MON

Chance: 0% It got a spirit event. I know Pokemon has always been an exception but I don't want to make exceptions in that regard as much as I'd like to see some DLC Spirits become playable.

Want: 5% Again, I'm tired of Pokemon, I didn't buy SwoShi as the games did not have enough positives for me to be willing to pay for it full price for it, even after the DLC brought some improvements. As for the mons, it's incredibly broad but honestly, I ended up not caring about a lot of gen 8 mons, most likely as I now know that we're getting cuts in the franchise meaning I feel less inclined to grow attached, though the real kicker is a doozy. I just find all the suggestions for a gen 8 mon to be dull, Rillaboom, Cinderace, Zacian, Urshifu, all of these simply don't interest me at all

Soma Cruz x max

 

[Brodemmars]

A Gen 8 Pokemon - Chance 96%

This fighter’s pass has shown us that various “fan rules” can be broken and that Sakurai can and has intentionally misled us into believing certain franchises like Tekken wouldn’t get a character. Yet there are people out there who still believe that franchises like Pokémon don't have a chance of getting another character.

Personally I believe that out of all of the Gen 8 Pokemon, Cinderace has the best chance since it has been given plenty of special treatment in both the games and Anime. Sure it’s strange that they didn’t save tournaments, spirit events, etc. for later for Cinderace, but I’d say it isn’t a dealbreaker, they could always have different plans in mind for Cinderace. These people are assuming that, like with Byleth, Sakurai would put off adding any spirits until the character is released. However the problem with this theory is that people would quickly catch on. If a major franchise like Pokemon didn’t release any spirits then it would be too obvious that a gen 8 pokemon would be coming to FP2. (This also goes for Tekken, if they did not give us the Heihachi Mii costume there would still be people clamoring for him or another Tekken character.)

As for relevance, they could be saving Cinderace to help promote games like Pokemon Unite.

Decidueye (Pokemon) - Chance: 2%

While Sakurai did say he considered adding this character, I believe that Gen 7's time has passed. Sure there is a possibility that TPC/Gamefreak/Nintendo wants to reconsider it for future Smash games, but I'm not holding my breath. I have nothing against the character, but I would have to say that Gen 8 would have greater priority since Gen 7 already has representation with Incineroar.

Garchomp (Pokemon) - Chance: 2%

Same here. Yes I know the remakes and Legends: Arceus are on the horizon but again Gen 4 already has Lucario and Gen 8 would have bigger priority since it's still missing a lot of content.


I know there will be plenty of people who will find some way to disagree with me and I will say that I don't care. If this is indeed the end of the Smash Ultimate and if it turns out that Gen 8 will only get a single spirit event then so be it. I would simply be surprised that TPC, Gamefreak, and Nintendo would let this opportunity slip by.

 

[DanganZilla5]

A literal land shark

Chance: 15%

I've been thinking about Pokemon for the past couple days in regards to its chances for Smash as at this point they could go in different directions. In one corner we have the Diamond/Pearl remakes coming out this year, close to when we'll get CP11. I'll agree with the general consensus that Garchomp is the most likely Gen 4 Pokemon. Its Cynthia's main Pokemon and one of the top most popular Pokemon to my knowledge. My only concerns are that we already have a Gen 4 Pokemon and the fact that remakes do not get shilled that often in Smash. Since we've now seen more of Nintendo's lineup for 2021 we can see that they've got other options to pick and I'm just not sure that they'll choose Pokemon when the first party DLC for this game have all been from smaller games. There's also the fact that there is already a Gen 4 Pokemon in the game and plenty of Gen 4 spirits which is enough on its own to promote the remakes via something like a tourney event.

Want: 40%

I'm still hesitant on any Pokemon. I would rather Nintendo promote something else like Famicom Detective Club or Advanced Wars. Let's give other series a chance instead of the same Fire Emblem and Pokemon shill deal. Granted they have been doing better with this with ARMS and Xenoblade 2 getting love, but I hope that they continue with the trend. But if I had to pick a Pokemon, Garchomp would be one of my top choices. Platinum was my first Pokemon game so I'm biased towards Gen 4. If we got more music and a new stage from that gen it would still give me a smile even if it's just more Pokemon content in the end. Plus Garchomp itself is just badass and would be very fun to play as.

_____________________

Decidueye

Chance: 15%

Keeping in mind the idea of Nintendo having multiple routes to go with Pokemon, we have Decidueye in this corner. As we all know, he is one of the starters in Legends: Arceus and what's interesting about Decidueye is that he was considered for base roster. Now I'm not the biggest believer in second chance theory but so far it has held up pretty well so it's worth keeping an eye on Decidueye, especially if we do get a bonus fighter. But there are two things that prevent this from being likely. 1. Gen 7 already has a rep who was introduced in this same game and 2. Gen 7 has long passed and it's always the most recent gen that the Pokemon gets chosen from. Overall it could happen but I think Incineroar already being a newcomer for this game hurts this chance score.

Want: 15%

Same want score as last time. I think Decidueye is cool but he's not one of my top picks for a new Pokemon. I'm fine with Incineroar being our Gen 7 rep and I would rather have Gen 3 or 5 get their first rep. Or another rep from Gen 4 but preferably no more reps for Pokemon for now.

______________________

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 20%

Honestly I am conflicted on this, to the point where I had to leave my writeup for a day to ponder. On one hand, we did have the spirit event, but on the flip side that spirit event only covered some of the Pokemon, leaving the final evolution of the starters and other Pokemon like Toxtricity, etc. without a spirit. And on one hand Gen 8 is the most recent gen, but on the other hand you got both the Gen 4 remakes and Legends coming soon which fits with the timeline of the pass much better than Sword/Shield. Overall there are a lot of factors in play but I'll say that this concept is still viable considering that Nintendo continues to advertise Sword/Shield. But at the same time, as I mentioned earlier, we have a pattern with the first party DLC being from smaller series that benefit a lot more from the Smash exposure. That is a lot of back and forth but basically I think this has a decent shot but is nowhere near a guarantee.

Want: 5%

If we get something like Toxtricity or Dragapult, I guess that's fine but overall I'm not that interested in this gen. I haven't even played Sword/Shield yet but from what I've seen not a lot of the new Pokemon are very interesting to me, and it doesn't help that, again, I do not want anymore Pokemon for the time being. There are other first party series like Golden Sun, Pikmin, WarioWare, Advance Wars, etc. that could use the power of the shill. I hope that they give one of those series more love before they just revert back to playing Shillmon.

Predictions: 21% for both

Noms: Pyramid Head x30