REX
CHANCE - 30%
I think Rex's odds are pretty solid. The big negative I can really stick on him is the fact that... yeah, he has a DLC Mii Costume. Except that Mii Costume is not purchasable individually and was implemented in the very beginning of FP1 / alongside base game. Rex is in a very very weird position and it's particularly difficult to get a read on what this means for him.
If the Mii Costume is the
only negative, Rex should be higher right? Well, it's not exactly a small obstacle. For all we know, and as far as some people in this thread seem to be concerned, this could be a death sentence in and of itself.
I think there's substantial evidence to imply that Rex's costume is the best he's going to get. Case in point, this FP1 promo graphic that still prominently displays him as a selling point right alongside the actual characters. Considering I've seen this as recently as Steve's release as part of an in-game announcement, they still seem to prop Rex up as a valuable part of the FP1 package.
It's also becoming more and more reasonable to believe that most if not all of our DLC characters have been discussed and planned for several years now, and that FP2 may have always been in the cards (or at least some additional characters). At face value this would hurt Rex, since he was chosen to be part of DLC despite there always having been further plans beyond FP1 (I think Steve outright confirms this). Contrary to this point though, I believe Nintendo can pretty much add their own characters whenever they want. I'm under the impression that Min Min was a later addition than some of the other DLC, founded in Sakurai's own statements about ARMS and the idea that third parties would have to undergo far longer negotiations and paperwork.
To this point, knowing that Sakurai felt bad about not being able to implement ARMS or Xenoblade 2 characters into the base game... AND seeing how Nintendo really seems to see Xenoblade as an important IP now, I wouldn't be shocked to see them fall back on Rex or some additional Xenoblade content. I'd be equally unsurprised if Rex misses the boat, though. The bottom line is they COULD if they want to.
WANT - 20%
I don't really feel anything toward this character, and I believe he would be justified in joining Smash, but I would be VERY underwhelmed to have him appear as one of the final characters. The closer we get to the finish line, my want chances are generally gonna be more strict because they're taking up one of three opportunities for me to get a character that I really really want. I don't particularly want Rex for anything other than Xenoblade 2 music, which we could use more of but is technically already in the game.
GALAR POKEMON
CHANCE - 15%
These characters have a surprising amount in common - recent first-party hits from Nintendo, and people can't figure out whether they're disconfirmed or not. Most of Gen 8's contention lies in the fact that SWSH has already received a spirit event, usually accepted by everyone as an outright disqualification of that game getting content down the line. Why do a SWSH spirit event if there's going to be a SWSH character later? I think this logic is sound, and I mostly agree with it.
That being said, I think those that berate others for seeing Pokemon as the "exception" need to come at this with a little more nuance. Every other spirit event we've gotten that has been seen as a disconfirmation - Resident Evil, Astral Chain, Ring Fit Adventure, etc - featured the most fitting characters from those series to join the roster. We're not getting a RE character if it's not Jill / Leon / Chris / Wesker, obviously, so why bother speculating about it anymore? Meanwhile, Gen 8's frontrunners are the final starter evolutions, which are absent. Sure, we have the first stage starters, but the fact of the matter is the characters who people would expect to become playable from SWSH are technically
not out of the picture. And no doubt there are dozens of other Pokemon who could make up a brand new spirit board.
I do believe the spirit event is a major strike against SWSH's chances of getting a playable character though, especially when you consider Three Houses (I mean, they could have just dropped Edelgard, Dimitri and Claude spirits without Byleth right?). And with both DLC expansions out, I feel that the longer we go without a Pokemon character the less likely they become. I'm absolutely not counting on another Pokemon, but the series is still massive and the most prominent candidates are still missing any representation in the game. So it's hard to count it out entirely, IMO.
WANT - 20%
It all depends on who they are. I think there are good opportunities here for fun Pokemon, and then there are also opportunities that I would find pretty lame. I actually don't mind Cinderace, I think they would make for a distinct moveset even with their derivative typing. Toxtricity would legitimately be badass, but I find their chances to be particularly slim. As for the other viable candidates, I don't really want them at all. There's also just no pressing need for more Pokemon content at all, and I personally don't care very much about the series nowadays.
WOOPER
Not gonna bother. They're in.
PREDICTIONS:
Lloyd - 38.5%
Rayman - 16%
(Wasn't there going to be an Arle re-rate too?)
NOMINATION: BILLY & JIMMY LEE x5
