Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DrifloonEmpire]

There aren't a ton of options for a Spirit Board as the base game representation was pretty thorough.

Not really, several major characters remain completely absent.


Rex

Chance: 60% - Rex could go either way. He still remains a big deal for Nintendo even if he isn't the most recent entry anymore and his game put Xenoblade on the map for a lot of people. Sakurai has expressed disappointment in being unable to add him to the base game and he got a Mii Costume as compensation. However, while I think Rex is by far one of the most likely first parties, my confidence in him goes down as time passes. Xenoblade Definitive Edition is now the series' newest entry so I don't think he'd be a promotional pick. Furthermore, Steve and Sephiroth completely disproved the theory of a first party-oriented pass and took things in a new direction, so that naturally hurts his chances of being possibly anything but the last choice. Furthermore, he partially rides on Min Min's coattails and even she was chosen by Nintendo directly, while Rex at this point would definitely get in as a Sakurai pick. Now, Nintendo could ask for a new Xenoblade rep and Sakurai could push for Rex, but overall, while Rex is still one of the most likely characters, over time my confidence in him slowly wanes.

Want: 40% - Not my first choice, but I do honestly like his personality (even if he's a bit generic) and I do have experience with his game (even if I've only played half of it, put it down a year ago since the gameplay just felt too tedious), so that alone does help his score! Furthermore, there is plenty of content that could come with him. Xenoblade 2 does have a lot of beautiful landscapes that could make for excellent stages (though I really hope they don't choose Gormott, since it'd be too visually similar to Gaur Plains), and there's tons of music to add! Furthermore. several major characters like Dromach, Vandham, Duhgall, Malos, etc. remain missing, so they'd make excellent new spirits to join the existing ones for Rex's spirit board! So while there are a lot of first party reps much I'd rather see (Louie, Waluigi, Dixie, Bandana Dee, etc), I think he'd make for a good challenger pack to round out Xenoblade's representation in Smash.


Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 30% - Another one where my confidence wanes as time goes on. While Pokemon is always marketable, the Gen 8 rep's promotional point slowly slips away. It's been 6 months since Isle of Armor and 2 since Crown Tundra, and we've had four characters announced during their promotional timeframe, yet no sign of a Gen 8 rep. While the spirit event doesn't outright kill its' chances, I do think it hurts them to a good degree. Nintendo makes weird, left field decisions but I still think that if we were getting a Gen 8 rep they would've been revealed by now. Plus with Gen 4 remake rumors next year, we could very well get a Gen 4 Pokemon instead.

As for a frontrunner, Cinderace has by far gotten the most attention. Extra animation attention in-game, best hidden ability (similar to fellow marketed starter Greninja's), a major role in the anime, and so much more. Even if it'd be our third fire started, Cinderace seems like the one they're trying to push, and with us being outside of the DLC promotional period, choices like Urshifu feel less and less likely.

Want: 40% - I love Pokemon, and even if Sword and Shield had A LOT of problems (my god am I tired of the self righteous shills on Twitter), I'd be fine with a Gen 8 rep getting in (especially over another Gen 1 rep like Eevee). Though if I were to choose I'd pick a more out there but still popular rep like Toxtricity, especially since it'd be a much more well-recieved choice. Plus Gen 8 DOES have some cool-looking environments. A stage overlooking the WIld Area and Motostoke sounds very pretty! So the Gen 8 rep would come with some good content. Though if I were to choose another Pokemon rep, my first choice would be Drifblim or Gothitelle.


Wooper

Chance: 0.1% - Clearly a joke choice xD But not one I have any confidence in. Niantic seems to love Wooper but it's such a random choice that I don't see TCPi going for it under any circumstance. Nonetheless you CAN get Wooper in Sword and Shield, so there's a tiny bit of promotional material there. But Wooper just doesn't align with the choices The Pokemon Company typically makes for their Smash reps.

Want: 100% - As funny as Pichu is, Gen 2 deserves a better rep and Wooper would honestly be a hilarious way to do that. It has such a goofy design that Sakurai would surely have a blast designing a moveset for it! Plus Johto needs a stage more representative of it and for sure Wooper would bring that (as TPC and Smash usually just treat Johto as East Kanto). I also loved Wooper as a child and still do, and it was also the first Johto Pokemon I ever encountered, so there's history here!


Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x10
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10
[Rerate] Louie x10

Predictions:
Lloyd - 27.83%
Rayman - 13.22%

 

[Louie G.]

(Wasn't there going to be an Arle re-rate too?)

Don't want to be a bother but this was a genuine question, Arle was alongside Lloyd and Rayman on the front page schedule last I checked (and still is) so I'm just curious if something changed / got shuffled around or if we rated her too recently or whatever.

In any case, if we aren't doing Arle it at least saves me the hour-long writeup LOL

 

[SharkLord]

I personally am in the belief that negotiations for Pass 2 were in the works far before it’s announcement in September 2019, but nothing was locked down and finalized till November of that same year as Sakurai mentioned in the Byleth presentation.

I believe Sakurai has stated that there was always going to be DLC beyond FP1, but at first he just thought it would be a couple solo packs. It wasn't until later that they made it into a whole pass. I think a 2-3 characters were carried over from earlier negotiations, but the other fighters came in more recently when the pass was going to be an actual pass and not just some bonuses.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Okay, for Rex, my opinions are largely the same, so here's my last rating for him:

Rex

Chance: 95%
Honestly, there isn't much I can say that hasn't already been said. Getting an ARMS rep at all GREATLY helped his chances, and that character being Min Min helped even further. At this point, there's more going for him than against him.
Want: 100%
I've already mentioned before how much I love XC2, so I'll keep it brief. This game is awesome, I don't care what any haters say. Rex has more than earned the right to be playable in Smash.

Although since it's up for debate, I'll just say this: why WOULDN'T they add Rex as the XC2 rep? He is LITERALLY the main character. That's why we got Corrin before Azura, Hero before Slime, and Byleth before Edelgard.

Gen 8 Pokemon
Chance: 50%
At this point, this is Schrodinger's Smash Pick. Either we're getting a Gen 8 rep, or we're not. We won't know until it actually happens. We know for a fact Pokemon gets special treatment, otherwise Incineroar wouldn't be in the game. If any franchise would be excempt from the "post-launch Spirit" rule, it would be Pokemon.

Abstain on want. I don't have an opinion either way.

Also abstain on Wooper. I honestly don't know how to rate this.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma xhowever many noms I got from this (I can't tell).

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Don't want to be a bother but this was a genuine question, Arle was alongside Lloyd and Rayman on the front page schedule last I checked (and still is) so I'm just curious if something changed / got shuffled around or if we rated her too recently or whatever.

In any case, if we aren't doing Arle it at least saves me the hour-long writeup LOL

I think Arle had like 150+ noms which TCT missed when making the fixed schedule so she was taken off of it as to not invalidate all those votes

 

[SharkLord]

Okay, for Rex, my opinions are largely the same, so here's my last rating for him:



Although since it's up for debate, I'll just say this: why WOULDN'T they add Rex as the XC2 rep? He is LITERALLY the main character. That's why we got Corrin before Azura, Hero before Slime, and Byleth before Edelgard.

Gen 8 Pokemon
Chance: 50%
At this point, this is Schrodinger's Smash Pick. Either we're getting a Gen 8 rep, or we're not. We won't know until it actually happens. We know for a fact Pokemon gets special treatment, otherwise Incineroar wouldn't be in the game. If any franchise would be excempt from the "post-launch Spirit" rule, it would be Pokemon.

Abstain on want. I don't have an opinion either way.

Also abstain on Wooper. I honestly don't know how to rate this.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma xhowever many noms I got from this (I can't tell).

Slime was actually in consideration in case Hero didn't go through but I more or less agree. Hypothetically they can go with someone else, but it's not a real ensemble cast where everyone has equal importance. The story revolves around the Aegis and is told from the perspective of Rex, and they're front and center in the promotional material as a result. I'd say there's a collective 10% chance we get an XC2 rep who isn't Rex.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Don't want to be a bother but this was a genuine question, Arle was alongside Lloyd and Rayman on the front page schedule last I checked (and still is) so I'm just curious if something changed / got shuffled around or if we rated her too recently or whatever.

In any case, if we aren't doing Arle it at least saves me the hour-long writeup LOL

Wait really? I was looking forward to Arle day and also planned to do a decent writeup lol.

 

[NintenZ]

After careful consideration I’ve decided to raise my rating of Rex to 30%

I still think he’s overestimated and has a lot of competition from his own series, but tbh being the main character counts for something and he’s a fairly popular request in Japan, I could see him getting in against the odds but I’m not really holding my breath, still I do think my initial score was a bit low so I’m raising it just a bit

I guess I can raise the Pokémon score to a 15% since it is a big franchise but at the same time I think the odds are mostly against it and Nintendo will likely go for other franchises that likely don’t have the same luxury it does lol, I think following patterns is a dangerous trap to fall into with speculation and I honestly think if a Pokémon was in the cards for DLC we wouldn’t have gotten that Spirit event lol

But yeah I think my initial ratings were too low, so I just wanted to update

 

[fogbadge]

well then what a trio

one of the few genuine britsh accents in JRPGs

chances: 50% i can believe it can happen. as ive stated many its my thinking that nintendo suggest big switch titles for their own characters so i dont see why XC2 wouldnt be one. now we do have reason to think that sakurai was open to the idea, though some will point out that he said that it was too late to include the game rather than he wanted to. however a character this popular from a game that well received i think its a very strong point in his favour. now of course theres the mii fighter costume but if sakurai was unwilling to have a costume and a character in the same time then why would he bring back all the old ones? now you may point out that as a dlc costume the logic in including it may be different than usual. however sakurai told us that the 2nd fighters pass wasnt planned until after the first one was already in progress, long after the rex costume was picked. also its very likely the rex costume was a base game thing kept back for a bonus like PP. so the way i see it there isnt really anything standing in his way and its only a question of if theyd do it.

want: 100% i really liked XC2 despite its terrible character design. and i liked rex as a character which i all i need to support a character. rex would be fun to play as and he could do some fun things. and he would be different enough from the other sword fighters which some seem to think should be disqualifying on its own. none the less rex could be a really unique really fun character to play as.

what game freak thinks britain is like

chance: 50% now we all know they like to have the latest gen be in a game but this is the first time a new gen has come out during a dlc cycle. but i can still believe that nintendo would suggest someone from sword and shield. im just not sure how much GF or TPC would be pushing for it. so while i can believe it could happen i just dont think its as inevitable as people seem to think.

want: im gonna give it 50% cause really it depends on who it is. sure, polteagiest, eiscue, corviknight, appletun, centiscortch, intelleon, zamezenta would all be great to play as but cinderace would not. actually he might be the only one id be completely against. for me gen 8 was full of great pokemon a id love so many of them to be playable.

err im gonna abstain on wooper cause i feel like i might be being pranked. nominate qbby x10

 

[Deleted member]

YES YES YES YES (Rex)

Chance - 35%
I think Rex has a decent chance, he's fits the theme of the 1st party DLC fighters (switch era characters who would promote a switch game). There is still Xenoblade Chronicles 2 content to fit up a challenger pack (new stage, characters who are missing as spirits, missing music, Counterattack) so XBC2's current content in smash shouldn't be a problem for him. Honestly, I think he's one of the most likely 1st party characters, but I've been losing confidence in his chances so I'm not rating him too high.

Want - 100%
He's definitely in the top 2 most wanted characters. I feel like he can have a really interesting moveset with blade switching. Also, Counterattack can finally be in the game as it should be if Rex has come into smash.

NO NO NO NO (Gen 8)

Chance - 20%
I do think the spirits event does make a Gen 8 mon pretty unlikely, but I can't rate them any lower because it's Pokémon, and because they also fit the theme of the 1st party DLC fighters so I can't just disregard them.

Want - 0%
I remember being hyped for SwSh during 2019, but little by little, I keep hearing news that started to ruin said hype. I ended up being really disappointed with SwSh and I would be really disappointed if a Gen 8 mon is one of the final fighters.

Abstain on wooper.

 

[Calamitas]

Interrupting my departure for just today to weigh in on this. And also to support Gwen.

Proof that if there's a god, that they hate me specifically

Hey, I share your pain.

Anyway, to give an actual rating - I still think that not enough has changed for Rex from the time before last time we rated him, so once again, I'll just copy my rating from then.

Looking for a (R)exit

Chance: 0%

Nope. That ship has sailed. So, sure you may say, he has a lot of fan support, and apparently could have happened in the base game. But so what? Just look at Dixie Kong. She was going to happen in Brawl, has a Mii costume now, and the Donkey Kong series has received more attention now than it has received in any game since Brawl! And yet, Dixie Kong is nowhere to be seen. And beyond that, Bandana Waddle Dee and Geno also have yet to happen, despite the massive fan support (although the latter of course also has the issue Square Enix). Plus, unlike any of those three examples, here's what Rex is missing: Future relevance. Considering that Xenoblade as a series seems to be following the Final Fantasy model of sequels, it is a reasonably likely assumption to make that he isn't going to have the main character role in any future Xenoblade game, let alone make any kind of appearance. I would say that we're already seeing this with Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition, but considering that that game just came out, and patches with additional content are at least possible and could give him some role, I don't wanna don the clown outfit for making that statement.
And now, for the apparently more minor points: The Mii costume was specifically added in as DLC, and promoted along with the first fighter pass on multiple occasions. And so what if an ARMS character is coming? You wanna know what ARMS lacked that Rex' game already has? Music. And if you wanna talk about a Xenoblade game that has no music and that got snubbed pretty hard in Smash Ultimate, you need to look one entry further back.

Want: 0%

This is easily gonna be the longer paragraph here, I can already say without any hesitation. Let me make one thing clear: The first Xenoblade is one of my favourite games of all time, right up there with Majora's Mask and Okami. And as something that markets itself as a sequel to that, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 fails on just about every level to make something better, or even something anywhere near as good as the original.

Spoiler: More detailed explanation in here to not clog up the page and to step on less toes; don't complain about stepped toes if you ignored the warning

The story is a mess that was clearly written in a rush, the main cast is absolutely bloated (depending on how you count it, your main party consists of twelve to fourteen characters, and there's six main villains of varying importance, even more if you count their Blades) and nowhere near as well developed as the main casts of any of the other games, the Blade gacha system is a horrible idea that, from what I can tell, not even fans of this game tend to enjoy, field skills constantly grind your exploration to a screeching halt, and, what is to me the biggest misstep, the side quests are nowhere near as plentiful or deep as they were in 1 and X. Oh, and most character designs are pretty bad, but there's no need to hammer that point down any further.
And at the center of all my problems with this game, all the things that I hate, sits Rex. He's incredibly bland in terms of his personality, his character arc is extremely understated to the point where I've seen multiple people argue that perhaps Pyra or Mythra are the actual protagonist (who wouldn't be much better protagonists, even if they were), constantly takes away the attention of the story and even side quests/stories from more interesting characters, and yet the game's narrative constantly worships the very ground that he walks on, and expects the player to do the same. And, sure, a character's writing has no bearing on how they'd appear in Smash, and we have plenty of badly written protagonist characters in the game, such as [insert Fire Emblem protagonist of your choice here]. But a character's writing in their home game is pretty important to actually make them likable in the first place, and Rex clearly doesn't manage that for me.
As for moveset potential and the like? I don't see it. Sure, he could switch between Blades, but. . . so what? What Blades do you even give him? Pyra and Mythra? The moveset he gets from is virtually identical, especially since I'm pretty sure that Blade specials would be reserved for a Final Smash. The Blades he canonicaly gets? The only ones there are both spoilers, and I doubt that Sakurai and his team would do that (though then again, they also pointlessly added Seven to Shulk's Final Smash in Ultimate. . .). Do the Byleth thing and give him the Blades of his party members? Also a spoiler, and it runs risk of giving him two weapons that are very similar to the ones he already has (Zeke/Pandora's sword is similar to Pyra/Mythra's swords, Nia/Dromarch and Mòrag/Brighid are very similar). Pick a buncha random Blades from the dozen or so rare ones? That would be way too random of an option. And really, both of the big things that get touted as unique mechanics that he could bring to the game can be done more interestingly by other characters. Switching movesets via weapon switch? Go for Elma. Puppet fighter? Astral Chain protagonist is right there.
And even in a more general sense, all that Rex would really add to the game in terms of Xenoblade representation is basically "more of the same but worse", when Xenoblade as a series has already done very different and more interesting things.

Bottom line, this is one of the very few characters that I'm actively against. You know, I generally try to be a positive person. But literally the only set of circumstances where I wouldn't be dead against Rex making it into this game were if by some bizarre set of choices by Sakurai and Nintendo, Elma makes it in before him. And I think I don't need to push for this concept to be rated in this thread to accurately make the statement that everyone agrees that the chance of that happening (especially in the confines of this current Fighter Pass) is 0%.

Now. . . eh, what the hell, since I'm already here, I'll today's other ratings as well.

This concept seems to get a lot of h-eight

Chance: 20%
This one is rather quickly summarized. On the one hand, Pokémon is one of the highest-grossing video game franchises of all time, and even with their more than questionable quality and design choices, Pokémon Sword and Shield sold incredibly well. From a sheer business standpoint alone, a new Pokémon would make sense. But on the other hand, as both the first Pass and this Pass have already shown, Sakurai and his team don't always go for a character that makes the most business sense. And of course, there was also the Spirit Event around the release of Sword and Shield, which for most cases I would consider an instant death sentence. . . except that Pokémon is the one first-party franchise where I could easily see them making an exception to that unspoken rule. Though since Incineroar already joined the base roster without bringing a stage, I have a bit of a hunch that the chances might be even lower than I make them out to be.

Want: 10%
Pokémon Sword and Shield were. . . eh. As far as I'm concerned, Pokémon has been on a downward trend since Generation 5 ended, and this pretty much culminated with these games. I was already pretty lukewarm on Incineroar, and not just because it was my least favourite starter from Sun and Moon. By now, I feel Pokémon is well enough of in Smash so that it can sit out a "turn".

The Burger King

Chance: 100%
Wooper is love. Wooper is life. Wooper is eternal. Wooper is gracious. Wooper is inevitable for Smash. All hail he punches with no arms, and giveth no f***.

Want: 100%
Read my chance score again. I know what I said.

. . .Okay, and now the joking aside.

Chance: 0%
Wooper is a long forgotten Generation 2 Pokémon, that has only achieved a niche popularity. With how Pokémon character since Brawl have been chosen, it obviously has no chance.

Want: 30%
. . .I mean, it still could be fun. A character that is more connected to Generation 2 than Pikachu's pre-evolution would be nice, as would be the chance to finally get some more Gold/Silver/Crystal music than that atrocious medley.

No predictions and nominations from me, this is a one-time visit to this thread.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Arle day is happening, she had a bunch of noms but was a last minute addition to the fixed schedule (I believe the last in fact), leading to some confusion. Sorry bout that y’all, but yeah she’s happening tomorrow too. I’ll make another post tagging everyone that didn’t predict her so they can get bonus noms ^_^.

 

[Dan Quixote]

Anyone know where I can bet money on Smash newcomers so I can put a few bands on these two? Cuz yeah we're into officially "likely" territory boys n girls! And in these cases, that's not such a bad thing.

Pyrannosaurus Rex

CHANCE - 65%
Yeah no duh. I don't know what caused it, but the past decade has been so, so nice to Xenoblade Chronicles. It can't just be because the first game was super well-received right? Or maybe this truly is some of the most organic growth of the 2010s decade in gaming. Either way, it's like a main Nintendo franchise now. Shulk in Smash helps but the series itself has become an icon, and Nintendo promotes the heck out of it like they do Splatoon. Back in 2017, XC2 was promoted by Nintendo pretty highly for a JRPG that isn't about catching monsters. I don't particularly care if Rex is a Mii costume, too. I dunno Sakurai personally, maybe he's wishywashy and changes his mind a lot. It's been two years since that costume was revealed anyways, so it's honestly a moot point. They devs just do what they want. Well, and what Nintendo wants. If they wanna promote more XC, which they clearly do, this is the way to do it. You can't discount fan requests, too. I'm certain Rex is one of the most popular names that the higher-ups catch wind of. This would be a higher score if it weren't for the fact that third-party fighters seem to be pretty highly favored in SSBU DLC.

WANT - 70%
Why not? Honestly a lot of this is because I know that it would make a lot of my best friends very happy. But I like Rex on my own too! Y'know it's funny. I'm on Twitter a lot, and oh my gosh there's so many toxic arguments about XC and XC2, how one is far superior than the other one. It sucks and it's always so dumb because people CLEARLY adore both games, it's just trolls making up an enemy for an excuse to yell. I went through XC:DE and XC2 myself recently, and the funniest revelation is that the two games are... just super similar. Like I had pretty much the same experience with the second game as with the first. I guess the first is better but a big part of that is because the second has that weird gacha system. Oh and the bad tutorials that Chuggaaconroy has recently become known for pointing out. Either way, it boggles my mind how some people on Twitter adore one game and hate the other when they felt so similar. (Obviously when you look closely there are certain major differences, like the Blades, but I mean overall) Anyways, I'm off on a tangent rant now lol, just residual frustration from JUST seeing one of these arguments on Twitter the other day. Main idea is I enjoyed both games and this is a series that I'd love to see get more content in Smash, especially for first-party standards.

Generation Vee-Eye-Eye-Eye

CHANCE - 70%
This is difficult cuz this is obviously many possible DLC fighters put into one. But heh yeah it's Pokémon, how could I possibly rate it any lower? My main concern is that this rate being for multiple possible fighters inherently pushes the number up, but idk by how much exactly. Plus that Spirit event from last year throwing things into a tizzy. It's also hard to predict exactly WHICH Pokémon the devs might actually pick for here. Last gen, the frontrunner was Decidueye. We were off on that, but it still ended up being a final-evolution starter. In Galar's case, there's lots of auxiliary frontrunners, most notably Toxtricity. But overall I still rate this as pretty darn likely. Sword and Shield sold super well, but that's not a shock. What is more of a shock is that the game has become a platform now. Instead of sequels or a combined third version, GF released DLC expansion packs! That's huge imo, that means they're focusing years of their time and work on promoting just one game. Er rather, one pair of games. It's the type of thing that GF would be utterly salivating to exploit Smash for. idk if I could even blame em.

WANT - 50%
Eh... I liked Shield well enough. It's Pokémon, hard to get that wrong. But hoo boy there are a ton of these critters in the game already. I've mentioned before that I'm biased towards new universes getting representations, and that drags this want score down more than anything else. Rillaboom would be sick, since I've picked the Grass-type starter in every game and I'd love to see more representation of that type. But in the end, I'm really not gonna care if Pokémon doesn't get more DLC content, I have quite enough of it to satisfy me. But since I do like some of the main picks, I'll put this score right in the middle.

Woop, there it is!

This is a funny bit, but i have nothing clever to add to it lol. count this as an abstain I guess?

Nominations: Tetra x10, 4X strategy x10

Predictions: Lloyd Irving 35%, Arle Nadja 20%, Rayman 25%

 

[Sari]

Rex

Chance: 93%
Yeah I'm going to be super hopeful on this. This post is already long on it's own thanks to the Gen 8 rating so I'll list his pros and cons in the spoiler tag below. Most of this is a repeat of my last Rex rating, however I have made a good amount of edits/additions to it:

Spoiler: Rex Pros/Cons

Pros:

• Sakurai greatly enjoyed Xenoblade 2 and even viewed it as a considerable achievement.
• Rex is a super popular Smash request even after his Mii Costume reveal especially in Japan. After the November 2018 Direct, the term Rex was the second most trending term on Japanese Twitter (first being Super Smash Bros.). Keep in mind this was the same Direct that revealed Ken/Incineroar/Piranha Plant and deconfirmed other big names like Isaac, yet Rex was the talk of the town. He's also done well on various polls done before and after the announcement of the ARMS character such as SourceGaming's 2019 and 2020 Mega Smash Polls (he placed in 9th in the 2019 one when basically everyone thought he was dead).
• Adding to the above, during the Rex Mii Costume reveal in the November 2018 Direct Sakurai pretty much said “sorry Rex couldn’t get in” so he is well aware of his popularity.
• The Xenoblade series as a whole has also been becoming more and more popular each year especially with Xenoblade Chronicles: DE being one of Nintendo's main highlights of 2020. There's a good chance Nintendo could promote it further by adding the protagonist of their most recent game. Yes Xenoblade 2 is a few years old but Nintendo is still keen on promoting it as seen in this official Nintendo magazine page from last month (for reference some more recent games like Three Houses and Link's Awakening had much smaller promotional space). Also we got Min Min years after ARMS released so timing shouldn't be too much of an issue.
• Sakurai said that had it not been for bad timing, a Xenoblade 2 character most likely would’ve been in the base game. You know what other series Sakurai said almost got a base game rep in that very same interview? ARMS. And we all know how that turned out.
• Existing Xenoblade 2 content from the base game is not too much of an issue:
  • Rex's Mii Costume was a promotional one for people who bought the first Fighters Pass and was decided on before the base game launched (as evidenced by it being available at launch plus the Nia costume being in the base game). I think it killed Rex's chance for FP1, but with FP2 essentially being like speculating for a new game I don't think it matters that much anymore especially with base game spirit promotions being a thing.
  • Some might say that Nia's Mii Costume would affect Rex's chances since they should've released it alongside Rex as a playable character. However we still got a Ninjara Mii Costume alongside Min Min despite there already being Spring Man and Ribbon Girl costumes in the base game. If Rex was added, they could easily just add a costume from one of the other party members (Morag swordfighter pls).
  • Min Min's spirit board shows that existing spirits can be reused for it, so the spirits of Rex's party members that are already in the game can easily be put up there. Also there are still a ton of other Xenoblade 2 characters to use as spirits (like Vandham, the blades, and the villains to name a few) so the current Xenoblade 2 spirits representing the entire game is absolutely not an issue here.
  • There are only 3 Xenoblade 2 songs in Smash right now which doesn't mean much since Xenoblade 2 has a ton of tracks to take from. If Min Min could get 18 ARMS songs in the game then Rex could easily get just as much if not more.
  • And of course there is no Xenoblade 2 stage. Nothing to say here except that there are a ton of unique locations so they could easily make a stage that's not too similar to Gaur Plains (Leftherian Archipelago is my personal pick).
• Sephiroth gives me hope of already repped series with little content getting additional fighters. Like I mentioned above, Xenoblade has a ton of room for more content while Xenoblade 2 has only a tiny bit more content than Final Fantasy 7 had before Sephiroth.

Cons:

• The Xenoblade 2 content already in Smash is definitely the biggest hurdle for Rex. I know I just spent a good amount of the above section debunking most of it, but at the end of the day Sakurai may just shrug his shoulders and say "well that's enough Xenoblade content for now!"
• There's a very slight chance they could go for other Xenoblade characters like Lora, Fiora, or Elma instead. If Sakurai lets Monolith decide on which Xeno character to add then they're definitely going to choose KOS-MOS. However I still think Rex would have priority over all of them.

Louie G. brought up an interesting point in that the Rex costume is still shown in FP1 advertisements. On one hand, this could just be them showing that the costume is a FP1 bonus. On the other hand, it may mean that they're counting on the Rex costume to act as one of the main selling points of the pass. To counter that last sentence, that would mean the Ancient Armor bonus costume for FP2 would be one of it's main selling points. And let's be honest: basically no one asked for that to be a character/costume. If Nintendo was banking on their bonus costumes being one of the main selling points of their fighter passes then they would've made the FP2 one an actual notable character instead of a random BotW costume. So I'm not putting too much stock into that one advertisement killing Rex's chances.

GoodGrief741 also brought up a good point in that although talks for Steve went as far back as 2015, we don't know if that was in regards to Steve being for FP2 specifically (and probably wasn't since I doubt they'd plan to release Steve that far ahead). Talks for Steve most likely kept occurring over the years while they actually decided to add him while thinking of choices for FP2. This whole point makes me believe that the FP2 lineup may have not been planned out so far in advance like I previously believed which would mean that Rex's fate may not be completely sealed by his pre-launch costume.

Really though if it wasn't for the Rex costume I'd be willing to give this a 99.99%. He has just about everything going for him to the point where I'd call him the Ultimate equivalent of Chrom.

Want: 100%
I'd be lying if I said Rex was some deep and complex character. For starters he's the textbook example of a Stock Shōnen Hero not to mention most of his English screams legit made me laugh when I first heard them. While my dream Xenoblade 2 pick would be Morag/Brighid (because flaming whip swords are a new level of cool), Rex would still be an amazing fighter thanks to his blade combos and of course Pyra (and possibly Mythra) being a part of his moveset.

Oh and Xenoblade 2's OST is phenomenal. The themes to Gormott and Uraya are amazing while the theme to Mor Ardain is one of my most wanted music tracks for Smash. Not to mention if the Torna DLC is counted then we've got a ton of other amazing tracks available for Smash as well.

Lastly, the Xenoblade series as a whole is quickly becoming one of Nintendo's next giant series. I really want to see this series grow so I am down for just about any form of additional Xenoblade content.


-----

"Wow Sari, you only gave Rex a high chance score because you want him!"
What better way to disprove the above statement going on in your head right now than with the following rating:

Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 50%
Pokemon is one of Nintendo's biggest franchises and they knew Sword/Shield was going to be big even with all of the controversies (regardless of your thoughts on Dexit, you’d have to be crazy to think it would actually put a dent in the game’s sales). Sword/Shield is the 5th best-selling Switch game ever and even surpassed Ultimate as the fastest selling Switch game (prior to the release of New Horizons which benefitted greatly from the unexpected lockdown).

For Gen 8 to have no representation outside of that one measly spirit event just feels so… weird. It's why I have this sneaking suspicion that this will actual become a reality, whether it be from Sakurai's own interests or as a forced request from Nintendo (most likely the latter).

We’ve always gotten a Pokemon rep for the most recent Pokemon generation released at the time of Smash. The only generations without any characters are gens 3 and 5 since they were overshadowed by gens 4 and 6 in Brawl and SSB4 respectively. This could always change, but I feel like Nintendo is going to use the current mainline Pokemon game to their advantage as much as they can like they've always done before. I know a lot of people (including me) view spirit events as deconfirmations since they would’ve just released the spirits alongside a new character. I feel like Gen 8 could be an exception to this especially since they have more than enough Pokemon to fill up a spirit board, and the one from before was most likely just a tie-in for Sword/Shield's launch.

Now as for who the Gen 8 would be, right now I'm thinking the priorities would be something like this:

Rillaboom > Cinderace > Toxtricity > Dragapult > Urshifu > Inteleon​

Rillaboom to me just feels like a Sakurai pick especially since our last two Pokemon reps were water and fire types. Cinderace has just about everything going for it, though Incineroar may mean that Sakurai won't want to double dip on bipedal fire-type starters. Toxitricity and Dragapult benefit from placing in the top 15 spots of the official Pokemon popularity poll from last year, however that was after the FP2 lineup was decided on. Urshifu is the obvious shill choice for Isle of Armor and then you have Inteleon who is the starter with the least amount of things going for it.

If we actually do get more DLC then expect this score to go way up. Toxtricity and Dragapult will also shoot way higher on my probability rankings since that one poll I mentioned may be taken into account depending on the timing.


Want: 15%
I’ll be blunt: I’m not a fan of Gen 8. I hate to beat a dead mudsdale but my interest in Pokemon had already been waning prior to Sword/Shield. I was hoping the next mainline game on much more powerful hardware would reinvent the series similar to Breath of the Wild (or at least just continue what made it good), but somehow they actually went backwards. I’ve been debating on whether to buy Sword for a while now, but the fact that I’ve been thinking about it for over a year without actually bothering to buy it should speak volumes.

In regards to the actual Gen 8 candidates, I’ll just go through them one-by-one and see how much I’d like them. I'll divide my want rating into 7 scores, with those being for the 6 Pokemon mentioned in the chance score section plus an extra category for all the other potential Galar picks:

• Rillaboom: Probably the worst outcome both in regards to a Gen 8 rep and just a Smash character in general. I hate everything about this thing from it's looks to it's potential moveset to it getting in over basically anything else. 0% (would be in the negatives if I could)
• Cinderace: The only Gen 8 Pokemon that I would actually really like to see. Blaziken is one of my favorite Pokemon so I like the idea of a bipedal kick-based fire type in Smash. Plus I just really like the idea of a fast rabbit fighter. 80%
• Inteleon: Not really much to say here. Granted I kind of like Inteleon better than Rillaboom but either way I wouldn't want this. 0%
• Toxitricity: Definitely the best choice after Cinderace. The idea of a poison/electric type fighter sounds great so I think I'd actually enjoy Toxtricity. 25%
• Dragapult: Another pretty cool looking Pokemon. The fact that it shoots missiles (which are its own kids) could make this a pretty unique fighter. 10%
• Urshifu: Not interested plus this would just be an obvious shill pick. 0%
• Anyone else: I looked through the entire list of Galar Pokemon. While there are some Pokemon that I would probably like if I ever gave Sword a shot (like Yamper, Impidimp, and Cufant), none of them would really interest me as an actual playable character. 0%

So doing the math my average score should be 16.42%, but I'll just round it down to 15% just because of how much I don't want Rillaboom to happen.


-----

Wooper

Chance: 0%
Wooper's inclusion in Smash would bring in a ton of money for Smash. Too much in fact, that literally everyone imaginable would want this to happen including people that don't even like videogames. People would buy multiple Switches and copies of Ultimate just so they could have free-for-alls against all of the Wooper plushies they have at home. This means Nintendo would have to massively increase their Switch production rates to account for every living being on the planet (plus even more). Nintendo is big and all but I don't think they'd have enough resources to do this. There's also the issue of people spending way too much money on extra Wooper challenger packs instead of food or bills meaning that Wooper's inclusion could lead to yet another Great Depression. I can only imagine food rations being decided on by whoever wins 8v8 Wooper only matches. I'm pretty sure Sakurai is aware of all of this and wants to prevent this apocalyptic future by all means necessary. Heck, I'm pretty sure that's why PokeFloats was cut since Wooper has a big role in it.

Want: 1%
I have enough stress in my life so having to learn how to play as Wooper to fight for my survival is not something I need right now. Sorry little armless pond creature...

...though I would still unironically take Wooper over most of the Gen 8 options.

-----

Lloyd chance prediction: 20.00%
Rayman chance prediction: 12.00%
Arle chance prediction: 25.00%

Nominations:
Curly as Quote's alt/echo x10
Trevor Philips x20 (assuming I get 10 noms for my Wooper rating)

 

[SharkLord]

Rex, also known as Bataar, Gigas, and Lancensis, among others (Free cookie for whoever gets the reference)

Still no takers, eh? I'll wait a little longer and see if anyone gets it.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Still no takers, eh? I'll wait a little longer and see if anyone gets it.

I thought it was a Ys reference, but then I remembered the new game is called Monstrum NOX. So that one's out.

 

[Lyncario]

Wooper

Spoiler: Wooper Music

First of all, how dare you not use Wooper's theme song

Anyway, going to the stuff I'm supposed to do...

Fixed schedule part 8: SwitchShillion

What do you mean it's not Rex from Toy Story?

Chances: 12%

I see Rex as a possibility, but also nowhere near as likely as some see him. First of all, Nintendo is picking the dlc, not Sakurai, so the "Sakurai likes Xenoblade Chronicles 2" is not really relevant to the disscussion. Now, Nintendo could very well want to advertise Xenoblade Chronicles 2 with Rex in Smash, kinda like how an Arms character, with Min-Min being the lucky winner, got in Smash for representing Arms with a character and pumping interest back into the game, but not only did Xenoblade 2 leave a far better long term impression than Arms, but also Xenoblade already has a character in Smash, unlike Arms before the Arms fighter selection and then later Min-Min was revealed. Min-Min does make Rex look very likely based on precedent, but personaly, I don't see it working for him. What would be working very well for Rex, however, is if Nintendo said to Sakurai to put one of Monolith Soft's characters in Smash, and they asked for Rex to get in, which is a more likely option for them to pick over KOS-MOS if said chain of events was to happen, though once again Arms also had no characters in Smash while Xenoblade already have Shulk, so Nintendo may not see Xenoblade/Monolith Soft getting a character as a priority. Also mii costume bla bla, it's very possible that it was chosen as a bonus while Nintendo already knew who they wanted for a second fighter pass, so it's also very possible that the mii goes very much against his chances of getting in.

Want: 70%

Rex is an annoying protagonist, and an extreme downgrade compared to Shulk, even if he's still alright overall. The interesting things that he could bring as part of his moveset is, of course, blade switching, with him using different elements between fire with Pyra, lightning with Mythra, spoiler element for spoiler that I don't feel like marking as a spoiler, and tehcnology for KOS-MOS if she were to miraculously show up along him. So yeah, Rex could have a pretty cool moveset thanks mainly to the girls that would also come with him, renforcing the idea of Xenoblade 2's best quality being it's great cast. Also a good stages and great music would come from the Xenoblade series.

Reisen Udongein Inaba with a flaming soccerball

Chances: 0%

Ah, the default obivous shill pick for dooming predictions. I'll give Cinderace credit where it's due, if we get a gen 8 pokemon, it would definitively be him. Problem is that we know that we're not getting a gen 8 pokemon, and we already know that because of the gen 8 spirit event that we got around the time of when Sakurai already had the second fighter pass decided, meaning that a gen 8 spirit event would have been just a waste of time in a job where you don't have enough time already as it is. And no, I don't believe in a bait and switch, because I'm not a doomer. People are expecting Cinderace to come as the second coming of Byleth for the obvious shill pick/pokemon of the pass, but against that, I'm going to do a little demonstration.

Super Smash Bros Ultimate sales: around 20 million
Pokemon Sword and Shield sales: around 20 million
Fire Emblem Three Houses sales: around 3 million

20 Million >= 20 Million > 3 Million

FE3H got good sales, but both SSBU and Pokemon got way more. FE could have done without the shill, but it could have also very well done with the shill, and guess what? It did. Meanwhile, pokemon just doesn't need the extra shilling, since Sword and Shield already have around the same sales as Ultimate. Furthermore, it's Pokemo, the biggest multimedia franchise in the entire world, it doesn't need shilling besides being called Pokemon, just like how Mario games don't need shilling beyond being called Mario. Also people were speculating a lot about Sceptile being dlc for 4 because of ORAS releasing around the time of Sm4sh but nothing came out of it, and even if the timing is different, Pokemon still doesn't need the Smash shilling in any way imaginable.

Want: 55%

Not the most exciting pick for either a new Pokemon rep (I would much rather have Bisharp, Grovyle, or Garchomp for that) or just a first party rep (I would much rather have Midna, Marx, or Akira Howard for that), but Cinderace would still be fine for the most part. I'm part of the people that enjoyed Sword and Shield and yes, Cinderace is my favorite of the 3 final evos, and even if it's nowhere near one of the eciting picks, I would still find it to be alright overall. I like it's design (a strong part of Sword and Shield overall btw, the character design in that game is just extremly well done, both for humans and pokemons), and having a moveset around football would be eh for me since I don't like the sports a lot, but it could still be fun if it's not as janky as the soccerball item. Also more pokemon music is good because pokemon music is good, and the stage would just be Galar Stadium, though it could be a cool new legal stages so I would apreciate it as a competitive tryhard.

Wooper: Trooper. Sire: Acquired.

Instead of talking about Wooper's chances and want rating for Smash (we all alreadsy know it's 100% for both), so instead I'm going to talk about Quagsire and it's utility in nuzlockes.

First of all, how it does in nuzlockes challenges. Wooper and Quagsire are obtainable during the main game in the regions of Johto, Sinnoh, Kalos, and Galar, so I'll talk about them for those gens, not the others (sorry to randomizer fans, but randomisers are too unpredicatble).

First of all, Quagsire's stats are... ok. 95 hp, 85 attack and defense, 65 special attack and special defense, and 35 speed, totaling at 430 base stats, vertianly a bit on the low side. Quagsire doesn't look too good based on his stats, but then you look at his typing, and boy, what a typing this is. Water and ground, which is both very good for offense and defense, especialy in defense. It only has a single weakness, being a 4x weakness to grass type moves, but it's a pretty rare type for atacking moves, so it doesn't even encounter them often. Not only that, but while they're not high, his stats are just high enough for him to be usefull in many fights, even if they're still low overall. He's good for his typing and has some neat utility, but he's not too special outside of having a very good synergy with Gyarados when it comes to types. Also some nice matchups against Whitney since Quagsire tanks Miltnak pretty well, Jasmine since her steel type just loose because of their typings and movepool not being usefull against Quagsire, Koga, Surge, Brock, Jasmine and Blaine, and also some of Blue's and Red's team members thanks to it's great typing. Quagsire is alright, even if not really great by any measure.

But then, comes gen 4, and also abilities (even if they were her since gen 3). Obvious is fine, but water absorb gives him an imunity to a very common type of move. It's amazing, really, and makes him so much better, letting him pivot and gives you so many more free switches. Also the physical and special split hapened, letting it hit only on the physical side, where he's stronger. So he's just way better, and can do wonders against Crasher Wake, Maylene, Byron, Volkner, Bertha, Flint, and part of Barry's and Cynthia's team. Quagsire is just great in Sinnoh. Also it just gets better in Johto too for HGSS, since he's like amazing for switching on anything with a water type move if it has water absord. Not only that, but Quagsire also has a great moveset since gen 4. Recover is amazing for itemless nuzlcokes, but also yawn, haze, rain dance, counter, and many of it's other moves are really good. He's definitively amazing starting from gen 4, especialy in Sinnoh, where he once again works very well with Gyarados, despite how they're both water types.

In Kalos, Quagsire sadly comes after the electric type gym, though he still see uses, especialy with water absorb giving him a great immunity. He struggles more than in other generations, but still comes out as very good, partly thanks to scald being great even if it uses Quagsire's lower special attack, as the 30% burn chance is just so good. And also some good type matchups against the elite 4 and Diantha also doesn't hurt either.

In gen 8, it's pretty much the same. Amazing typing, meh stats, amazing movepool, and will be usefull for sure if you user it.

Quagsire is surprisingly enough a very consistent pokemon despite it's low stats. You should definitively use one if you feel like you want to, because I can guarantee that it will be funny at the very least.

Nominations

Madeline mii x 20

Predictions

Llotd: 32.4%

Rayman: 27.7%

Arle: 24.9%

 

[fogbadge]

What do you mean it's not Rex from Toy Story?

hmm i made the same joke when we rated another rex

 

[GoodGrief741]

At the same time, we know Banjo was secured at E3 2018 due to people at Rare confirming that and there's an equal lack of evidence that Steve was outright dropped until Nintendo wanted Steve again later. There's reason to believe they were still actively trying to get Steve too, with a certain Smash leaker who's Smash resume was damn near flawless insisting we were getting something involving Minecraft, this was in late 2018, AKA after they secured Banjo for the pass. It could just be small coincidences that somehow ended up matching up together or Nintendo knew they'd do more DLC pre 2019

Either way, Min Min being one of the fighters proves that at least some fighters weren't in consideration that long ago. So Rex's day 1 Mii Costume doesn't disconfirm him any more than Spirits or other base game content does.

 

[zferolie]

Rex

Chance: 30%

Honestly, this one is a hard one. Pretty sure Rex was planned for base game, or Sakurai would have made him base game, if the timing was slightly better. He got just a Mii costume, spirits, and music, so its possible Sakurai feels thats enough for him, unlike say ARMS. This can go either way honestly, but I feel like there MAY not be any more 1st parties in this pass, but if there are he is one of the highest likely ones.

Want: 75%

I loved the game(but still need to beat it then 100% it), and I think him with Pyra and Mythra would be a very cool charactrer, a true tag team character taken farther then ice climbers.

Pokemon 8th Gen.

Chance: 12%

I don't know I don't see it. Yes Pokemon is the cash cow but 8th gen was.... kinda lackluster at launch. rushed for sure. DLC made a lot of things better but it should have been in the base game. That may hurt Nintendo wanted to rep a 8th gen, making people feel like its just a shill pick(it would be), and instead if there is a 3rd pass put someone from the next games then.

Want: 25%

Not many 8th gen pokemon I would want in smash.

Wooper

Chance: 5%

If this was Mudkip that would be more liekly Still, I do find it amusing the love this pokemon got just from the game awards haha. one of the few good things from it . too much Shilling for Last of us 2...

want: 90%

Sign me up for some fun memes.

Lloyd: 29%
Rayman: 25%

Nom Marina Lightyearx5

 

[RouffWestie]

Rex
Chance: 12%
Nintendo chose the DLC, so promoting one of their recent releases makes sense, but not as much in Rex's case. I can't call Rex and Min-Min that similar beyond being too late to be considered for Ultimate's base roster. ARMS was a brand new IP meant to showcase a Nintendo's latest hardware, so I can understand their motivation to add ARMS in Smash as soon as possible. I don't think that same urgency is present with Xenoblade, since it's an existing moderately-successful franchise with at least some representation given to the sequel's contents already.
Want: 0%
I haven't played this game and it doesn't look like something I'd like. I've never played as Shulk already, so I'd probably never play as Rex either.

Gen 8 Mon
Chance: 75%
Nintendo chose the DLC, so promoting one of their recent releases makes sense, and even moreso in this case because it happens to be Pokemon, one of the biggest media franchises in the world. Gen 8 content is going to continue to be pushed until the next new entry is in development, and adding the most recent final-evoltuion starter to Smash is one of the ways they've consistently pushed content from their newest releases.
Also I think I discovered the reason they would have a Spirit Event; the games were released on November 15, so the event would be around the time wherein they can celebrate the launch. They didn't hold them until later because the games were actually not releasing at a later date, so that wouldn't be a time to celebrate their launch.
Want: 0%
I don't play Pokemon anymore really. I know of some of the new Pokemon, but I didn't pay much attention to anything about them post-reveal. Cinderace seems like the frontrunner, and he's kinda just inoffensive.

 

[SilverSoul24]

CT-7567 and Ahsoka
Chance: 15%
Rex is in such a weird place, man. I am a firm believer that DLC Mii costumes are a hard deconfirm for anyone. The problem is, and I'm trying to be as unbiased here as possible, is Rex really a DLC Mii? Well, technically yes, he's exclusive to the first Fighters Pass as a bonus, and Nintendo continues to advertise that. But there's evidence to suggest that his costume was originally meant for the base game. Seriously, why put Nia's costume in the base game and then lock Rex's behind a $25 DLC expansion as a free bonus? The whole thing felt like a last-second marketing decision before the Fighter's Pass was announced. Especially since the second pass came with the ancient BOTW armor, which isn't even based on a character. To me, it felt like Nintendo needed some sort of day 1 purchase incentive and picked Rex's out of the base game because he hailed from a recent Switch release. Sakurai even apologized for not including him, along with a fighter from ARMS, and we all saw how that turned out. But... Rex's situation isn't quite the same as Min Min's. For starters, he doesn't hail from an ensemble cast fighting game. Spring Man being an assist trophy didn't mean we couldn't get another ARMS rep because ARMS was never his game to begin with. XC2 is an RPG, one absolutely driven by Rex's story, along with Pyra's and Mythra's. All three of them are undeniably linked, we couldn't have any one of them in Smash without the others. And putting in someone like Zeke, Jin, or Lora just wouldn't feel right IMO. If we're getting an XC2 rep, it's gotta be Rex. But, sadly, I really do think his ship has sailed. If they were gonna put him in, I feel like Nintendo would have just done it already. XC2 is hardly a recent game anymore, and it sold rather well, so Nintendo probably isn't itching to promote it much more going forward. Xenoblade itself is still a major rising star among Nintendo's IP, and I think a newcomer from this series is still one of the more likely first party picks. But I think we're more likely to see a rep from a different game, like Elma if an enhanced port of X is coming, or even Fiora or Melia to continue promoting Definitive Edition. Of course, XC2 continues to be promoted heavily alongside DE in Japan, and the salvager boye himself remains among the most-requested newcomers among that audience, so he's definitely not an impossibility. It just seems like Rex's time has come and gone, and his chances continue to dwindle the further along we go, especially since the second pass seems to be leaning more into third party picks anyway. I'd love to be wrong though.
Want: 95%
Full disclosure, Rex is my absolute most-wanted first party newcomer. Xenoblade Chronicles 2, while not quite as much of a gem as its predecessor, is still a masterpiece. I legit cried when I first saw that reveal trailer in 2017. The original Xenoblade Chronicles is my favorite game of all time, and after seeing the direction Xenoblade Chronicles X took the series in, I had written off the possibility of a sequel more in-line with the original. And, for the record, I still adored X, I just prefer XC1 and XC2 is all. Rex's game is flawed, yes, but it still means a lot to me. The universe of XC2 is absolutely unforgettable, from the inspired art direction of its citizens and locations to its polished soundtrack. Seriously, Sakurai, give us a Mor Ardain stage that I can play Counterattack and a remix of the Indoline Praetorium theme on and I won't ask for anything ever again. And this isn't even considering how much fighter moveset potential Rex, along with Pyra/Mythra, bring to the table. Blade switching would be dope, and I have so many ideas about where they could take it that I honestly have to restrain myself from laying all of them out here. That's not what this post is about. I just... Really want Rex. Smash Ultimate is incredible as it is, and I hate asking for anything after Sakurai has done so much for us, but... That Mii costume hurt, man. Rex was a victim of unfortunate timing and deserves his proper Smash debut. Xenoblade as a franchise is represented quite puzzlingly in Ultimate, so a new fighter would go a long way to fixing that, as we saw with Sephiroth and FFVII. So, why isn't Rex ranked at 100% for me? Well, as much as I want Rex to show 'em a thing or three, he's my second most-wanted overall. That honor belongs to KOS-MOS, who I feel represents Monolithsoft, and indeed the Xeno metaseries as a whole, far better. I'm seriously kicking myself for being busy on the day this thread rated her.

British Invasion (of Japan)
Chance: 10%
To rule out the possibility of a rep from Pokemon, the single biggest multimedia franchise on Earth, would be foolish. However, the more time passes, the less likely I think we are to see someone from Gen VIII come to Smash. Again, it feels like if it were meant to be, it would have happened by now. Now that SW/SH have been out for over a year, and the DLC expansions are wrapped up, I fully expect Pokemon to begin shifting focus away from Galar in the coming months. All eyes are on February of course, when I predict the long-rumored Gen IV remakes will be announced, along with release windows for Unite, New Snap, and potentially a Detective Pikachu port. Putting a Galar Pokemon in Smash, while a logical business move, seems like one that would have made way more sense last year. Now I know that some of the fighters may have been shifted around, as there's evidence to suggest that Byleth, Min Min, and Sephiroth may have been meant to drop in a different order, so it's totally possible that a Galar 'mon could have been pushed back. There was also that SW/SH spirit event in 2019, and while I wouldn't say that it's a deconfirmation by any stretch (none of those 'mons would have been a fighter anyway) it certainly doesn't help. There's a lot of popular Galar 'mons that people would probably get pretty hyped for, which is honestly impressive considering how mired in controversy the launch of SW/SH was. Toxtricity, Dragapult, or any of the Galar starters would absolutely sell like hotcakes. I guess it just seems a tad shill-ish to use Smash to promote games that are already giving them such strong sales. Ironically, the two Pokemon that I think have the most Smash moveset potential (Urshifu and Calyrex) are probably the least likely Galar 'mons they would go with. Selling DLC characters in one game that you would have to pay for in the DLC of another game feels like a level of shill that even Nintendo wouldn't stoop to. I also wouldn't rule out the possibility of a Gen IV Pokemon getting picked instead if Sinnoh remakes are indeed coming. Overall, I think a Gen VIII Pokemon is increasingly unlikely, but definitely not impossible.
Want: 0%
Look guys, and I say this as a lifelong Pokemon fan, I'm so over Pokemon getting into Smash. Especially if there's only three spots left. If one of those spots is indeed a first-party pick I really just don't need any more fighters from Pokemon, or from Mario or Fire Emblem while we're at it. Not when there's so many Nintendo franchises starved of attention from Sakurai. There are several Zelda, Donkey Kong, Kirby, Xenoblade, and Splatoon characters that people have been begging to see join. Or, hell, give us a new first-party series fighter like Isaac or Chibi-Robo or something. I just want something a bit less obvious is all. Like, I've adored that FP2 has not given us the super mainstream, over-predicted likes of Crash, Geno, Rayman, Lloyd, Dante, and Doom Slayer. Giving us a Gen VIII Pokemon, which everyone and their dog could have seen coming, would deflate all of the hype for me going forward.

Mr. No Arms
Chance: 100%
After having the spot of a Gen II joke Pokemon unceremoniously stolen from it by Pichu in Melee, Wooper is back with a vengeance. This god among 'mon is absolutely at the top of Nintendo's priority list and I will be shocked and outraged if, by some cruel twist of fate, it doesn't happen. But Sakurai is a man of the people and he will give us what we've been begging for. It's time.
Want: 1000%
Just do it.

 

[SharkLord]

Still no takers, eh? I'll wait a little longer and see if anyone gets it.

Welp, here it is.

It's actually a spin on the T-Rex jokes, using the species name of dinos thought to be the same as the Tyrannosaurus. Bataar refers to Tarbosaurus Bataar, a close relative from Asia that some think is a separate species of Tyrannosaurus, Gigas refers to Manospondylus gigas, which was later found to be a T-Rex as well, and Lancensis is for Nanotyrannus Lancensis, a smaller species that many believe is actually just young specimens of the T-Rex.

P A L E O N T O L O G Y

 

[chocolatejr9]

Welp, here it is.

It's actually a spin on the T-Rex jokes, using the species name of dinos thought to be the same as the Tyrannosaurus. Bataar refers to Tarbosaurus Bataar, a close relative from Asia that some think is a separate species of Tyrannosaurus, Gigas refers to Manospondylus gigas, which was later found to be a T-Rex as well, and Lancensis is for Nanotyrannus Lancensis, a smaller species that many believe is actually just young specimens of the T-Rex.

P A L E O N T O L O G Y

Can I just say this was a Fossil Fighters reference and call it a day?

 

[SharkLord]

Can I just say this was a Fossil Fighters reference and call it a day?

bottom text

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Either way, Min Min being one of the fighters proves that at least some fighters weren't in consideration that long ago. So Rex's day 1 Mii Costume doesn't disconfirm him any more than Spirits or other base game content does.

No it doesn't, it isn't outright hard proof but simply your speculation against mine. Might as well call literally everything in the base game super likely because the base game included a ****ton of consolation prizes too, even if a character I liked was in Rex's shoes right now I'd be saying the same **** but because it's not a character I like people always assume the worst to the point I've gotten screeched at by Rex stans by saying neutral to outright positive stuff about him. Thank you for proving to me that every Rex fan is like this though

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yikes

 

[NintenRob]

I like Rex, but now I care more for seeing Melia

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

 

[Noipoi]

Base game spirits don’t disconfirm-check

Not an assist trophy, boss, or otherwise present-check

Not a mii costume-check

Yep, I’m thinkin’ Wooper’s in.

 

[AEMehr]

No it doesn't, it isn't outright hard proof but simply your speculation against mine. Might as well call literally everything in the base game super likely because the base game included a *ton of consolation prizes too, even if a character I liked was in Rex's shoes right now I'd be saying the same * but because it's not a character I like people always assume the worst to the point I've gotten screeched at by Rex stans by saying neutral to outright positive stuff about him. Thank you for proving to me that every Rex fan is like this though

I don't care if you hate or like rex but I do care if you choose to respond like this

people always assume the worst to the point I've gotten screeched at by Rex stans by saying neutral to outright positive stuff about him. Thank you for proving to me that every Rex fan is like this though

like what the **** where is this screeching you are talking about. you mean this part?

So Rex's day 1 Mii Costume doesn't disconfirm him any more than Spirits or other base game content does.

I don't see what you mean, does it come off as a screech because it's a pretty sound counterargument? Or because they just disagree with you? I'm sorry to see you feel like you're constantly badgered by people with differing opinions on something you don't like but that's kind of just life sometimes. Better to leave it alone if you know it's going to aggravate you by just existing.

Besides, your better argument against Rex was his timing anyways imo.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't care if you hate or like rex but I do care if you choose to respond like this
like what the **** where is this screeching you are talking about. you mean this part?
I don't see what you mean, does it come off as a screech because it's a pretty sound counterargument? Or because they just disagree with you? I'm sorry to see you feel like you're constantly badgered by people with differing opinions on something you don't like but that's kind of just life sometimes. Better to leave it alone if you know it's going to aggravate you by just existing.

Besides, your better argument against Rex was his timing anyways imo.

Nah I'm talking about when I've been called mentally ill and received anti LGBT hate on this site for daring to say "Rex is generally considered likely", being insulted on this site for daring to see people suggest a Pyra Mii Costume and saying "Damn it'd be crazy yo have anyone get shot down as a Mii for DLC twice in the same game", being told I should get gassed for daring to call the game not perfect, being told I'm a stupid idiot for not liking the pedophilia jokes involving a character who's naming scheme literally uses shortened terms used in porn to signify age, etc. Those last two weren't here but this **** happens all the ****ing time, I argued timing but whoops, that's objectively wrong according to subjectivity. I've already been outright ****ing stalked by a guy on this site for daring to not think their favourite who I just so happened to dislike would happen, so call me bitter all you like but this **** has precedence. Besides, there's no proof there was never any future DLC considered during the first pass and we know they held Hero back for DLC later, so I think giving a low rating based on my speculation is totally justified unlike saying it's objectively wrong because you disagree with it. But sure, shame me instead of going on about giving ratings

 

[AEMehr]

Nah I'm talking about when I've been called mentally ill and received anti LGBT hate on this site for daring to say "Rex is generally considered likely", being insulted on this site for daring to see people suggest a Pyra Mii Costume and saying "Damn it'd be crazy yo have anyone get shot down as a Mii for DLC twice in the same game", being told I should get gassed for daring to call the game not perfect, being told I'm a stupid idiot for not liking the pedophilia jokes involving a character who's naming scheme literally uses shortened terms used in porn to signify age, etc. Those last two weren't here but this **** happens all the ****ing time, I argued timing but whoops, that's objectively wrong according to subjectivity. I've already been outright ****ing stalked by a guy on this site for daring to not think their favourite who I just so happened to dislike would happen, so call me bitter all you like but this **** has precedence.

The problem is that this has absolutely no relation to the thread. Again, sorry to hear it's something you're carrying because literally what **** is wrong with people if they're doing any of that over a fictional character.
But that doesn't mean you have to carry that in here where nobody is doing that to you. That's a problem you should have with THOSE people, not the fictional character that literally has done nothing to you aside from exist.
I know it's easy for people to ruin characters, like Daisy for example, but you should probably remind yourself that the two are separate entities. I don't really know your background with GoodGrief, but it sounds like they aren't responsible for ANY of what you just typed out there. So there is absolutely no reason for you to act like that to him. Literally did nothing wrong but debate you.

Besides, there's no proof there was never any future DLC considered during the first pass and we know they held Hero back for DLC later, so I think giving a low rating based on my speculation is totally justified unlike saying it's objectively wrong because you disagree with it. But sure, shame me instead of going on about giving ratings

I think your speculation on a costume made for launch preventing something made for DLC two years later is the disagreeable part. Not the possibility that characters could have been in discussion for eventual appearances for a long time.
Grief isn't disagreeing with your assertion either, but they are adding that if a character like Min Min could appear in Ultimate at launch and eventually as a dlc fighter. That doesn't mean every character has been planned or discussed for a long long time. I mean if Min Min was always planned to be added, why add her as a Spirit, right?
you're just taking that assertion like they're saying it means rex is getting added because of this, they're just saying he also could still be considered if they wanted to add him later.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The problem is that this has absolutely no relation to the thread. Again, sorry to hear it's something you're carrying because literally what **** is wrong with people if they're doing any of that over a fictional character.
But that doesn't mean you have to carry that in here where nobody is doing that to you. That's a problem you should have with THOSE people, not the fictional character that literally has done nothing to you aside from exist.
I know it's easy for people to ruin characters, like Daisy for example, but you should probably remind yourself that the two are separate entities. I don't really know your background with GoodGrief, but it sounds like they aren't responsible for ANY of what you just typed out there. So there is absolutely no reason for you to act like that to him. Literally did nothing wrong but debate you.
I think your speculation on a costume made for launch preventing something made for DLC two years later is the disagreeable part. Not the possibility that characters could have been in discussion for eventual appearances for a long time.
Grief isn't disagreeing with your assertion either, but they are adding that if a character like Min Min could appear in Ultimate at launch and eventually as a dlc fighter. That doesn't mean every character has been planned or discussed for a long long time. I mean if Min Min was always planned to be added, why add her as a Spirit, right?
you're just taking that assertion like they're saying it means rex is getting added because of this, they're just saying he also could still be considered if they wanted to add him later.

Nah, you're allowed to dislike a character due to personal experiences here and you're even allowed to explain that, it's allowed. Unless of course people weren't allowed to do that multiple times but Rex's fanbase is holy ground but whatever.


I'm not the only one saying that so why single me out on that in particular? Now how about you don't pressure me to reply by posting again and people get on with the ratings, the actual topic?

 

[AEMehr]

Nah, you're allowed to dislike a character due to personal experiences here and you're even allowed to explain that, it's allowed. Unless of course people weren't allowed to do that multiple times but Rex's fanbase is holy ground but whatever.

You're allowed to dislike a character due to personal experiences, I hate Luigi and Rosalina because Smash made them abominations of game design in Wii U and I've lost so much money to both characters. But do I go and hold that grudge to every Luigi and Rosa player I come across? No I don't. I'm not telling you to like Rex, I'm telling you to stop treating every person that likes him like the same guys that did those things to you.

I'm not the only one saying that so why single me out on that in particular? Now how about you don't pressure me to reply by posting again and people get on with the ratings, the actual topic?

read your post I responded to in comparison to the rest of the posts everyone else made in relation to Rex in the past couple pages and I think it's self-explanatory why I'm talking to you about it.

Mind you, I don't even LIKE Rex. I don't care about Xenoblade 1, 2, X, Xenogears, Xenosaga, whatever. he gets in or not i dont care, just talk with people normally if they treat you normally that's all i ask/care about.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You're allowed to dislike a character due to personal experiences, I hate Luigi and Rosalina because Smash made them abominations of game design in Wii U and I've lost so much money to both characters. But do I go and hold that grudge to every Luigi and Rosa player I come across? No I don't. I'm not telling you to like Rex, I'm telling you to stop treating every person that likes him like the same guys that did those things to you.
read your post I responded to in comparison to the rest of the posts everyone else made in relation to Rex in the past couple pages and I think it's self-explanatory why I'm talking to you about it.

Mind you, I don't even LIKE Rex. I don't care about Xenoblade 1, 2, X, Xenogears, Xenosaga, whatever. he gets in or not i dont care, just talk with people normally if they treat you normally that's all i ask/care about.

Odd, I'm still being singled when others get to fling **** to fans if a character they dislike here, talk normally to me and I'll do the same.

 

[AEMehr]

Odd, I'm still being singled when others get to fling **** to fans if a character they dislike here, talk normally to me and I'll do the same.

sorry i missed the part when others decided to antagonize a whole fanbase because someone else chose to peacefully debate with them on a point in their opinion.

I'll get right on that.
- - -
Moving on.
Rex: pretty popular choice but im doubtful he has priority or company favoritism for any reason, i have no interest.
23%
0%

Gen 8: I don't really know if timing is on the side for pokémon from gen 8 unless whatever big release this year has a new pokémon in it that would fit in smash. i generally have no interest in a pokémon fighter because i like seeing new ip get in more for the crossover factor. but hey if we did get a pokémon that means new remixes right??? peony's theme would be funny.
40%
0%

wooper: no

 

[BritishGuy54]

Rex:

Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

Gen 8:

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

 

[Inue Houji]

Rex
Chance: 10%
I have my doubts about him, but then again, ARMS happened. Could definitely see him as the "shill pick" to end off this pass.

Want: 10%
Note that I haven't played Xenoblade 2 yet, so I'm mostly inferring from clips I've seen.
His design is weird, and not in a good way. He looks like a bog-standard anime protagonist. However his costume looks interesting...part of it, that is. It's like they gave up on his outfit halfway through. Same goes for Pyra, for that matter. I also don't like how the game went full fanservice anime compared to the first one. I don't mind it in other franchises, but it's disappointing when an already perfectly good franchise starts pandering towards that demographic.
Xenoblade music is pretty awesome though and always welcome.

In the end, all of that doesn't matter though. His inclusion would be a travesty no matter what, becauss Elma is way cooler.


Gen 8 Pokémon
Chance: 30%
Spirits or not, it's the biggest media franchise on earth. It has also gotten preferential treatmenf in Smash in the past. The biggest mark against it is itself, with a possible rep from one of the inevitable remakes.

Want: 0%
Even without considering the atrocity that is gen 8 itself, Pokémon has a tendency to pick "shill" Pokémon for Smash. That means any Pokémon even remotely interesting are off the table.


Wooper
Chance: Abstain
Trying to put Wooper's inevitable inclusion to numbers is folly. True believers know that Wooper is always with us.

Want:
Who wouldn't want them. This must be a trick question.


Predictions
Lloyd: 38.9%
Rayman: 10.2%
Arle: 15.3%

Nominations
Rallen x20

 

[Dan Quixote]

Welp, here it is.

It's actually a spin on the T-Rex jokes, using the species name of dinos thought to be the same as the Tyrannosaurus. Bataar refers to Tarbosaurus Bataar, a close relative from Asia that some think is a separate species of Tyrannosaurus, Gigas refers to Manospondylus gigas, which was later found to be a T-Rex as well, and Lancensis is for Nanotyrannus Lancensis, a smaller species that many believe is actually just young specimens of the T-Rex.

P A L E O N T O L O G Y

Hey I actually made a T. rex joke in my post too but it was way lamer

 

[Deleted member]

Rexit

Chance: uhhh 15% I guess

Rex's placement is strange. XBC 2 content was in the base game of Ultimate, yet Rex was explicitly chosen to be the Mii Costume bonus for Vol 1 instead of any other character. As said by the man himself, Ultimate was developed earlier than XBC 2 which was why Rex couldn't make it to Ultimate, but with Vol 2 starting off with ARMS getting a character, it sure did bring a lot of people's hopes up to see Rex making the cut this time around. Personally, I'd say Rex being included as a bonus Mii Costume for purchasing Vol 1 would count him out since you're already paying a whole pass to get him and the fact that there's no playable Newcomers with a Mii Costume debuting on Ultimate at the same time. At the same time however, XBC 2 still has a good amount of content to include that can warrant a Challenger Pack like a stage and more tracks, and during Vol 1, he was 1 of the heavier names people constantly talked about. It's believable to assume Nintendo picked wind of it and went hey you know maybe we should put Rex in Smash. He's not looking likely to me, but he certainly isn't dead in the water.

Want: 15%

I mean he's okay. He seems like a cool fella, but Rex isn't a character I'm interested in seeing being added to Smash this late to the stage. I wasn't interested when ARMS got a second chance of redemption in Smash VIA Challenger Pack, and I'm not interested in seeing the same go for XBC 2. There's also something to be said how the idea around Vol 2 was to bring content that was planned but got either scrapped or delayed during development that rubs me off the wrong way like that Tales of Chun post. Even if the idea around it also included a character I wanted, it doesn't really click with me that they went with what was already planned than going for something fresh off the table. I just don't like it, and there isn't a much better way for me to say why than that.
-------------------------
Dexit

Chance: 50%

A bold prediction of mine is that Nintendo will add another inhouse character to Ultimate who debuted after the release of Ultimate, but after Three Houses, the landscape of relatively new 1st Party games for Nintendo to add to Smash after Ultimate's launch is very barren. Most of, if not all their new games now have content in Smash VIA Spirit Events like Astral Chain, Ring Fit Adventure, Origami King, and most recently Age of Calamity. People are applying the same thing to Sword and Shield because it's no different other than the fact they released a Spirit Event and Poke theme Tourney around the same time as the release of Sword and Shield whereas the other games got spirit events a month or so after their game released. However, Sword and Shield was still 1 of Nintendo's biggest titles of 2019, and the games even eclipsed Three Houses in terms of sales figures since it's Pokemon. Not even something as controversial as the National Dexit was gonna stop it, and neither would it dissuade Nintendo from wanting a Gen 8 Pokemon in Smash. People are still actively playing the games, and including Sword and Shield to Ultimate would do much more to add new content to Ultimate than promote the games, which looking at the current landscape of Vol 2 it doesn't really seem to be about promoting games anyways. Speaking of promotion, it's possible the reason we had 2 events around Pokemon at that time was just because it was Nintendo and TPC's way of actually promoting the game in Smash rather than a Gen 8 Pokemon not being in Vol 2. It's probably safe to assume the spirits in question aren't what TPC wanted in Smash though, but that doesn't mean a Gen 8 Pokemon's now out of the running. They still have so much content to pull from for a Challenger Pack, and it probably helps that Gen 7 didn't get a stage for Ultimate as well. Unless by some miracle there's a debuting character from a new title this year Nintendo will promote around super heavily, a Gen 8 Pokemon is the best bet for the next 1st Party addition.

Want: 30%

I've pretty much come to terms that Sword and Shield is going to be the Three Houses of Vol 2. It feels less of a matter of if but when Gen 8 gets their spot, and if it's the last, this rating will go farther down. Personally, the Galar region doesn't look to have much interesting Pokemon for me to want, but the only Gen 8 Pokemon I want is Dracovish because he looks so odd I can't help but want him. He'd be the Piranha plant of Vol 2; the oddball wildcard character that looks so hard to explain as to why he was added. I could actually get behind the idea of this weird looking ************ being added to Ultimate, but unfortunately, I can't imagine Sakurai and TPC mutually agreeing to add Dracovish to Smash, so I'll be bummed out when it's not him like when Lola Pop wasn't the ARMS rep.
-------------------------
A Can of Woop Ass

Chance: 0%

Let's be honest here. Wooper is too based to be in Smash. Sakurai would never add him to Smash cause all he'd do is woop everyone's ass like no tomorrow. The meta would be utterly ****ed just by adding this lad to Smash, so unless Nintendo wants to kill the competitive scene even more, they're saying no to Woop.

Want: 75%

Wooper would unironically be great. He looks awesome and has an awesome name. That's like almost everything I need in a character to want them in Smash.
-------------------------
Predictions:
Lloyd - 44%
Rayman - 22%
Arle - 46%
-------------------------
Noms:
A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters xWhatever the maximum points I have for today