Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Alex Mason from Call of Duty.

Predict Frisk from Undertale.

Megadoomer

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Some songs to get into the Call of Duty mood:

Spoiler: Call of Duty Music

 

[Perkilator]

Call of Milked Franchises

Abstain. Even if I didn't want Crash first, I don't give a monkey's rectum about CoD.

Frisk: 5%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Ronald Reagan respecting they/them pronouns


Chance: 1% CoD may be a huge franchise but Mason has a few issues holding him back, for starters, competition, not only does Activision have other characters that are more popular among the Smash fanbase with Crash and Tracer, as I find it doubtful that this thread is the first I hear of CoD potentially in Smash in any way. The competition here also includes Doom Slayer and Master Chief, who popularized and modernized the genre significantly with one of them already having their respetive company worked with before the second pass was finalized. Second, CoD pretends to sell itself on realism, which I'm not sure if anyone's noticed, but realism is the absolute opposite of what Smash tries to accomplish with Smash not having any characters especially grounded in reality. While more grounded characters are becoming more popular, Kiryu coming to mind specifically, they still have an inherent goofiness that makes them fit, which again, directly contradicts the main selling point of CoD with it's 'realistic' depiction of war.

Want: 0% Hoo boy this is gonna be a real doozy. When it comes to the competition O've previously mentioned I actively like the other options a lot more as this isn't a Capcom scenario where I'm ok with whatever as the other two FPS characters I have in mind are from franchises I actively enjoy. I don't buy CoD games as there's a new game every year and I've stopped supporting that practise quite a few years ago with Pokemon, but the biggest issue for me? I cannot fake enthusiasm for a series that's literally military propaganda "Oh you're exaggerating Gwen" you may say but you think it's a coincidence that they get people in the military proofread and change the campaigns? Do you think it's a coincidence that despite claiming to use realism as a selling point that the series has denied American war crimes and just went "lol Russia" as seen with the Highway of Death's awful depiction in the last year's game? Is it a coincidence that the reward for kill streaks in the multiplayer is illegal chemical warfare? Is it a coincidence that the series caters towards a younger audience who happen to be in the same demograph as teens that the US ****ing stalk to recruit them in the military by promising they'll pay for school at the low low price of turning you into a criminal with loads of trauma while glorifying your death or ignoring you when you're broken and retired? I cannot support a system meant to chew people up and murder countless civilians in the same way that I felt uncomfortable with some of my money going to Sugiyama even if I never bought anything Dragon Quest directly.

Velvet Crowe x10

 

[Sari]

The only Alex I'd want in Smash

Chance: 0%
I don’t know much about the CoD series but after researching the story/characters for a bit then I’m pretty sure Captain Price would have priority. He’s the main character of the more popular Modern Warfare subseries so I think he'd be the character to rep CoD (heck he even has his own Wikipedia page for whatever that’s worth unlike Mason). CoD doesn’t really seem like a series that Nintendo would go out of their way to promote in Smash; I’m gonna go on a wild hunch and assume that the Smash and CoD fanbases don’t overlap all that well. Mason himself isn’t all that well-known compared to more recognizable Activision characters like Crash or Tracer. Best I can see happening for Alex is that we get a generic CoD character and he's available as an alt, but again I don't see CoD happening when Crash and Overwatch exist along with a ton of other issues at play.

Want: 0%
CoD is a series that I completely loath. I tried to get into the series with Black Ops many years back and needless to say I wasn’t a fan of it. I find realistic military FPS games to be really dull and CoD isn't an exception. I don’t think a character from a realistic FPS would offer that much of a fun and varied moveset. Yes I know that one of the CoD games has jetpacks or something but when it comes to FPS characters then Master Chief or Gordon Freeman would be able to offer much more unique movesets. Also since it's an Activision series then a CoD character would most likely kill the chances of Crash who is one of my most wanted. Hard pass.

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Frisk chance prediction: 3.92%

Nominations:
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get a deluxe enhancement) x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Call of Duty shooter man

Double zeroes
CoD is a generation defying series and one of the most succesful of all time but just like with GTA I feel this franchise is too grounded in realism for Nintendo to have their game want to be associated with. FPS games already aren't popular in Japan so I'm not expecting them to go with what is arguably US military propaganda. Actually, they aren't going to put that in period. Referencing realistic warfare like that would basically destroy Nintendo's childfriendly image.

The franchise may be iconic but the same can't really be said for its characters. I don't know much about this Alex guy but I do know he's atleast nowhere near the level of Chief/Doomguy/Freeman in terms of being recognizable. When it comes to Activison, Nintendo also pretty much has no reason to pick a CoD soilder over Crash or Tracer. Those characters are much more popular and have their games on Switch. Call of Duty meanwhile hasn't seen a Nintendo release since the early Wii U era and the Nintendo version of a CoD game has always been considered the weird one out.

So I don't see a CoD character happening in a million years and that's something I'm perfectly fine with. Never had much interest in this franchise and I probably never will. Realistic US troops seem a bit too... patriotic to me to be fiiting Smash contestants. They're also a western third-party and not even a good choice. Crash is the better Activison rep and Master Chief, Doomguy and Gordon Freeman all deserve it over CoD imo when it come to a FPS character.

Frisk: 4.26%
The Knight x10

 

[fogbadge]

CoD? really? abstain nom qbby x5

 

[BowserKing]

Alex (COD)

Chance: 5%. Another character from a game with mixed feelings from it’s fan base. While the franchise might be popular, it’s clear that the chance of a character from that franchise getting in is quite low. That is all I’m saying on that.

Want: ???. Call of Duty is another franchise that I’m conflicted on appearing in Smash. On one hand, the music would be enjoyable and the character could be fun to play as. On the other hand, I doubt they would use that character, or much content form that franchise. For now, I’m on the fence on that one.

Prediction: Frisk (10%)

Noms: 5 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[DanganZilla5]

What do the numbers mean Mason?

Chance: 1%

So what do I think of COD's chances of being in Smash? Well the first thing I can say is that it's definitely popular in the West and it heavily influenced FPS games. To the point where the majority of shooters from the late 2000s and early 2010s looked very similar with them being all grim, murky military shooters. And that is where the positives end (And even then, that last point I made isn't even that positive in my eyes).

I have several issues with COD's chances. First, COD's realistic nature doesn't fit with Smash. Sure, we have Snake but MGS still has a cartoonish nature to it, plus it has humor and doesn't take itself too seriously. COD on the other hand tries so hard to be mature and grim. It doesn't seem to be the type of thing that would fit with Smash. I understand that Smash is a mix mash of all kinds of different art styles and characters, but imagine Mario and Duck Hunt for example fighting in a COD map. COD just strikes me as a franchise that doesn't go along with Smash's fun and cheery mood.

But that isn't even the big reason I don't see this happening. As people have pointed out many times, FPS games don't do very well in Japan. There is also the fact that COD for some reason isn't on Switch. When your major in-house company competition has just as much popular and has been on Nintendo systems for a while now, that is not good for your chances.

Overall, I could see it happening, but right now Nintendo doesn't have much reason to add a COD character other than purely for profit. Crash and even Tracer are going to be tough competitors. and it's not even a guarantee that Mason will be the character chosen. COD is a good example of why just because a franchise has mainstream popularity doesn't mean it is likely to be in Smash.

Want: 10%

I can't say I would hate this decision. I do like COD. Black Ops is the game that got me into the franchise and it got me interested in multiplayer games so Mason would be my choice for a COD rep. We do not have a straight up military soldier in Smash yet (Aside from Snake, but that was when guns were a no no in Smash). So a moveset based solely around realistic weapons would actually be unique despite how "generic" it sounds.

But at the same time, I can't say I support this. COD embodies a lot of the negative trends of modern gaming (yearly releases with little innovation, microtransactions, and loot boxes). Plus as an Activision property, it would kill Crash's chances and that is a major hit to want in my book. Overall, there are much more appealing options out there.

Edit: Also when it comes to FPS reps, I would much rather have Doomguy, Master Chief and Gordon Freeman, all of whom would be more unique and bring their own charm and personality.

Frisk - 4%

Noms: Vectorman x10

 

[Lyncario]

Pew pew american shooter man

Chance: 1%

So, Call of Duty is a big and influencial shooter series that played a big part in the fps genre dominating in the 7th generation of gaming outside of Japan, before Minecraft, then the big open world game, then Fortnite along with Minecraft again, Fall Guys, Among Us, and Animal Crossing became the "true mainstream" games of out current generation of gaming with, or at least of the time we're currently living in, at least I think so, since I pretty much almost never hear of it outside of when one of it's trailer gets massive flack, or when it's anounced in a big event alongside a dozen of far better game for me. When it comes to Alex Mason, he's the protagonist of the best selling game in the series, along with being a major character in multiple other big game of the series, so it should do good to him in term of iconicity, and while I don't think that he's currently used in his series, his series still sells, and it sells well. In fact, Call of Duty even managed to pierce trough the Japanese market and actualy have good sales there, aparently. However, there are some things going against him. Call of Duty also has presence on Nintendo systems, even if nowhere near as much as on Playstation or on Xbox systems, but he still has more than what Persona has. He's also an Activision character, meaning he gotta compete with Crash, Overwatch someone, and probably Diablo, and while his series has the best sales, I just don't see him hapening over any of them, especialy since Crash got a big resurgence in the last years and got a lot of fan demand while we were waiting for base game and during FP1. Still, he's from a big and influential series, so he gets the 1% pity chance rating. Also, blood and violence, I guess.

Want: 0%

I hated the era of gaming where CoD dominated mainstream for some reason, a big part of this being because of the bullying I received at school due to playing Mario and Pokemon on the DS rather than CoD, like a "true manly man" would (said argument falls apart very fast when the one saying it is between 9 and 14 years old). And while I shoud probably not reflect what hapened to me in the past because of a bunch of childrens, well, I still thinks that it'sjust not good. It's just gritty for being gritty, have very bad single player, and the online community, from what I remember and deduce, is one of the worst out there since it's composed mainly of prebuscent child, angry young mens thinking that they're hip and cool because they play video games and going against what society say when they're mainstream as hell and are also very probably some of the most basic reddit users out there, and actualy good players that dominate the games they are in because they are just way better than everyone else. Add in the very generic fps playstyle it has, and I just can't find it having a redeeming quality. Also, he would be boring to play and annoying to fight because he is pretty much the most pew pew american shooter man of pew pew american shooter men in video games, and unlike the generic anime swordsman archetype who is usualy vibrant with color, gracefull, or just cool, he's not interesting. Also video games are suposed to let you escape the real world, not imagin yourself fighting in a war with actual guns, even if the last time I heard about it, Call of Duty was also very bad at being realistic despite how it and it's playerbase pride themselves in the game being realistic.

Well, those were 23 lines of pure negativity from me. At least it's over.

Nominations

Boss Rush x10

Predictions

Frisk: 8.9%

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Alex Mason

Chance: 1% - COD's got a big uphill to climb if it wants to be in Smash. Starting with the positives, though it does have its' merits. Surprisingly, there HAVE been COD games on Nintendo systems, the Wii and Wii U got them, but as of now there's no COD game on the Switch, so Activision isn't actively supporting Nintendo ventures for the franchise. Alex's barriers regarding violence have also been broken, with Joker's realistic pistols and Snake's realistic military themes (though he's notably more goofy than down-to-earth serious COD). However that's where the positives end. FPS games are not very popular in Japan and even if one were to get a rep Halo is much more likely, due to being more requested and the Japanese having a much higher opinion of it. Plus COD isn't exactly known for its' stories and characters or single-player gameplay so it'd be difficult to come up with a compelling character pack for Alex. There's also competition, you've got Crash Bandicoot to compete with, and with the overwhelming fan demand for Crash, outside of Tracer or maybe Spyro there's no breaking out of that barrier. The COD and Smash audience don't really overlap, and I don't expect Nintendo to try and bridge that gap any time soon.

Want: 5% - Mainly for the hilarity factor, though I do appreciate it having a bit of Nintendo representation. Though, aside from that I think someone like Master Chief would be the better choice for the FPS rep. He's more of a crowd pleaser, is overall more influential (though COD itself did influence shooters in the late 2000's/early 2010's and there were a lot of imitators), and has more interesting sci-fi weapons to work with. Furthermore, he'd pretty much deny Crash a spot, especially with only four slots left. This would result in a lot of upset people, myself included. Alex himself doesn't seem like a bad character, but there are tons of way better and more significant choices for those last four slots.


Nominations:
Don-chan x5
4x Strategy Rep x5

Predictions:
Frisk - 2.81% - Sans Mii costume will undoubtably tank the ratings

 

[jamesster445]

Which CoD character is this?

Chance: 1%
Want: 5%

I'll be up front, if any CoD character (which is already unlikely imo) is coming to Smash. Its gonna be Soap or Captain Price. And quite frankly that's fine with me. Not interested.

Nominations: Zagreus mii x5

 

[fogbadge]

I hated the era of gaming where CoD dominated mainstream for some reason, a big part of this being because of the bullying I received at school due to playing Mario and Pokemon on the DS rather than CoD, like a "true manly man" would

same, though i think it may have been because i didnt play halo

 

[GoodGrief741]

The numbers Mason, what do they mean?

Chance: 5%
I could see Call of Duty getting a character. It technically has everything you need to have to be a big candidate. There's games on Nintendo systems. It's one of the biggest franchises ever made. It defined the 2010s. And it's still very relevant. While there's other Activision-Blizzard characters that are more iconic or demanded, it's not so much that it would be impossible that they go with their biggest franchise instead. I think Captain Price and Soap are much more iconic than Mason and would be picked over him, but then again a CoD character would 100% be a Hero situation so Alex would probably get in anyways.

As for the comments that Call of Duty is too realistic and grim to join Smash... You know this is the franchise with Nazi Zombies right? David Hasselhoff and Jeff Golfblum are in it? There's exosuits and shootouts in space and tons of other bull****. It doesn't always take itself seriously. If Metal Gear, a franchise with much deeper explorations of war and its consequences, gets to call itself wacky because it has mechs and ninjas and Kojima's troll humor, I think CoD gets a pass in that regard.

Want: 75%
I'm gonna go against the grain here. Call of Duty is simply one of the most influential franchises out there, and it's not all negative influence. While nowadays it's easy to remember it just for being the series that made games cost $60, for being a pioneer of annual releases and microtransactions, for having an intensely toxic online community (all valid criticisms btw), it also had some positive impact back in its day. It had some great single player campaigns, bringing cinematic storytelling and production values to the videogame scene long before the likes of Uncharted. It pushed boundaries in storytelling. While those qualities were quickly lost in imitation, and Call of Duty itself was diluted to the point of being no better than those that followed it, for a while they produced very respectable videogames. I've no problem in having Call of Duty get into Smash coasting solely on those past glories.

Noms: Cooking Mama x10
Frisk prediction: 2.81%

 

[Jomosensual]

Alex Mason

Chance 1 - So there's some legit reasons Mason could be in the game. First, CoD is legendary in gaming. For a while it felt like it was THE yearly release. So I for sure could see Nintendo wanting it based on how iconic the series is. But we're not rating CoD in general, we're rating Mason. A major point in his favor is that Black Ops is the best selling COD game. So that at least makes him a considerable favorite for the series. However, I think a really major knock against him is that Call of Duty isn't really known for anymore. Not that they're bad of course, that's not what I'm getting at, but it really does feel like the online multiplayer is what the focus of the games are now. I think it's a lot more likely we just get some sort of generic soldier to rep the series instead. There's also the fact he's competing with the likes of Crash and Tracer. I guess not the most impossible character but I don't expect it here

Want 10 - Yeah don't really want this to happen. Not that big of a COD fan in general anymore. Even when I did like it though it was never anything I wanted to see in Smash. There's just some series that I don't really want to see in the game even with how popular it is. Not saying that it wouldn't fit, at this point we should know Sakurai will find a way, but the thought of it just doesn't entice me.

Predictions:
Frisk - 1.42

Noms:
TRex Runner x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Impa pre-Alex Mason

Red (Angry Birds) x180
[Rerate] The Knight x170
Miriam x165
[Rerate] Maxwell x155
Cynthia (Pokémon) x150
Hajime Hinata x150
Don-chan x125
Mii Costume: Monika x125

150 - 101

Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x121
T-Rex Runner x120
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x119
D.Va x115

100 - 51

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x100
Vectorman x100
Boss: Ender Dragon x98
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
[Rerate] Monokuma x90
Carl Johnson x90
Crazy Dave x85
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x85
Riptor x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Boss: Rayquaza x80
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Qbby x75
Giygas x70
Worms x70
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
John Marston x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x55

50 - 25

Tetra x45
Mii Costume: 2B x40
Cooking Mama x40
Echo (Bowser) x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Velvet Crowe x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Mii Costume: Zagreus x5

The Knight jumps past Miriam, and takes second place from her. Mii Costume: Monika is suddenly in the top seven, sharing seventh place with Don-chan.

Concept: A 4X strategy rep invades the 50 nom barrier.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I have no opinion on Call of Duty.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[amageish]

Alex Mason

Chance: 2%. There is definitely a timeline where Call of Duty gets in, shocking everyone and resulting in a lot of "Well, it was super obvious in retrospect!" videos. It's a big influential game franchise. It's not culturally associated with Nintendo platforms, even if it has technically had Nintendo games, but the company that owns it is chummy enough with Nintendo to realistically get a character. It does roughly what one would expect a Smash character to do! In Smash speculation, legacy is often thought of as a thing that requires debuting on the NES/SNES to have; however, Call of Duty is undeniably part of gaming history - both for good and very not-good - and is generally important... It is possible and there are real arguments to be made in favour of it?

The problem is... we got Banjo before Steve. Or, to phrase that another way, we got a throwback to a 3D platformer that a lot of people have nostalgia before we got the protagonist of the best-selling game of all time and, by extension, one of Microsoft's biggest IPs. It's kind of hard for me not to see Crash as the Banjo to Mason's Steve? Obviously Crash's fan demand isn't quite as vocally longstanding as Banjo's (partly because some current Crash stans were previously busy being Banjo stans), but it's still a nostalgic pick getting in before a bigger modern one. Now, they could maybe think "Hey, we already did a nostalgia platformer pick, so let's go for the modern one this pass," but... I don't know. I don't think that's all too likely, especially with Crash actively going through a resurgence independent from Smash Bros? It just doesn't feel like in-line with the previous decisions of the team that went for Banjo > Steve and for Mega Man > Resident Evil.

Moreover, FPS games in Japan are niche. They still release in Japan and do sometimes sell well, but they aren't the culturally dominating force they are here... There are also a lot of competition among FPS reps with some franchises - including other ones owned by Activison-Blizzard with current games on Switch - being more popular worldwide. And also, like, it's kind of hard to blame the world for that - the Call of Duty franchise is hardly what I would call "grounded," but it's also very American-centric and fairly jingoistic...

CoD rep in total would get a 3%, but I'll give Mason himself a 2% as... yeah, there's a lot of directions and subseries that they could go with this IP and it totally could be a Hero situation, but I am not fully confidant in that either.

Want: Abstain.

Predictions: 6% for Frisk
Nominations: Mii Costume: Monika x 5 and Mii Costume: Madeline x 10, as I'm not trying to get in the top 7 already...

 

[warpenguin55]

Alex Mason
Chance: 0.5%
There are a lot of problems with Alex making it into smash. First of all, his competition is Crash, Spyro, and Tracer. That's pretty rough. There's also the fact that his thematic is taken up by Snake. Gameplay wise there are ways to make him different, but in terms of looks, not so much. Alex doesn't have a ton of fan support either. He still gets a 0.5% because Call of Duty is a pretty iconic franchise, at least in America(IDK about other places).


Want: 75%
Call of Duty: Black Ops introduced me to multiplayer games. Unlike with sports or school, the time I put in on that game felt like it payed off over time. I was never super good at any COD game, but just being OK at it made me feel like I'd accomplished something. I still remember how amazing I felt the first game I popped off. That feeling kept me hooked, and I never went back. IDK if I would have even given LoL a shot or cared about improving at Smash if I didn't play Black Ops.

Noms: LoL rep x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Press S to Pay For Online

Chance: ...I would usually abstain on any individual Call of Duty representative because rating this is like rating a bucket full of fish on a particular fish, like cod. But, I'll rate him the same thing I'd give any CoD rep: 5%. Mostly because I believe that since out of Acti-Bliz's stock, they would probably go for Tracer/Overwatch first due to it being around the same level of popularity and more interesting for a moveset, or Crash Bandicoot due to him being so requested and iconic. CoD is iconic as well, but as a realistic wartime shooter that makes Metal Gear blush, I don't think Nintendo or Sakurai would be terribly interested in adding a character that doesn't gel with how Smash plays. It's like Ryo Hazuki's big problem, but to a much greater degree. Also it's apparently become war propaganda/American propaganda? Or it's always been that, but I didn't notice because basically nobody plays CoD for the campaign. I haven't heard much about CoD in recent times, but the series remains popular.

Want: 30%. I loved playing CoD Black Ops on the PS3 back when I was a kid. It was among the last games I got to ever play with my siblings, and among the few that all four of us got to play (I should note that they're fine, it's just we all have different goals and most of us are too busy now.). Both the PVP multiplayer and the cooperative Zombies mode, I loved that (I admit that I was a dirty screenwatcher back then, but I didn't try to). That's what singlehandedly saves this from a sub-10%, the nostalgia from having Boomtown as one of the Smash Ultimate stages, for me, would be comparable to how many people felt when they saw Spiral Mountain again after a decade. Otherwise... yeah, no. I'd rather have Crash from Activision, a TF2 mercenary for an FPS rep, Tracer for both at once, and if I had to get an M rated mature character in it'd be a GTA rep, particularly CJ. Plus, the obvious Final Smash (calling in a nuke) would be very, very, very out of place in a Japanese family-friendly game like Smash. And I don't even know if Alex Mason was the guy in Black Ops.

Red x 10, Frisk was kinda banking on a few things that I doubt panned out. 3.11%.

 

[SneakyLink]

Funny... we're rating a character associated with numbers with... numbers.

Chance: 0%. I normally like to rate every franchise with a 50% chance because in the end it boils down to "Did Nintendo want this character in Smash?". However with Call of Duty I think the last Nintendo one was Ghosts? (someone correct me here) on the Wii U... since then the series has avoided Nintendo completely. So unless Nintendo decided to sneak a character in, I doubt someone from this series is joining.

Want: 0%. Even if there was the chance a CoD rep is coming, I'd want to get a Zombies character first (i.e. Richtofen) solely for the creative stuff when using the Wonder Weapons from that game mode.

 

[Lionfranky]

Alex

Chance: 0.1 %

Crash and Tracer are already roadblock enough. There is no fan demand to speak of. COD characters in general are so generic that it's hard to advertise. Their aesthetics don't scream 'Smash' worthy. And as others already pointed out, there are more recognizeable characters from COD. Even their chance is slim to none. While Black Ops sold better than Banjo in Japan, that's still not a good reason to promote COD. Like GTA, there is little to no overlap with Smash fanbase. Sure... Smash brought unexpected newcomers from blind spot, but this is too much of black sheep for Nintendo to be associated with.

Want: 1 %

I haven't played much of Black Ops. So I may not be fair, but if this guy gets in way of Master Chief, that's big no for me. I still don't like the fact that COD stole light from Halo. Not saying Halo itself is innocent. I would rather have Tracer over this guy since she can bring more to table. Although I'm not a fan of Crash, I would be pretty disappointed if this guy gets in instead of Crash.

Nom: Video game characters that don't have games on Nintendo platform x 10

 

[Mushroomguy12]

COD

Chance: 1%

There’s some stiff competition in the forms of Crash and Tracer. Combine that with the lack of fan demand, and I don’t really see Nintendo picking this series.

Want: 1%

There’s too many other characters I’d rather have. I’ve had my fair share of good memories with COD a long time ago, but I just don’t really care to see it anywhere near Smash.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Frisk from Undertale.

Predict Scorpion from Mortal Kombat.

Megadoomer

-----

Some tunes to get into the Undertale mood:

Spoiler: Undertale Music

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Unbreakable Determination. Wait...


Chance: 0% We already got the Sans costume a while ago and there's no way in hell that'd happen if we were getting an Undertale character who'd be a perfect time to add a costume. While it's true that the costume was in the first pass, I don't see the second pass as unfinalized by the time they got the Sans costume on a whim.

Want: Abstain, all I'd end up caring about is Death By Glamour and Spider Dance

Velvet Crowe x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

Scorpion: 40%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[ahemtoday]

Frisk

Chance: 3%

I don't think Frisk is very likely at all, considering the general track record with indie rep. While we're at an all-time high for the Smash series, indie series (unless you count Minecraft) still are only getting costumes or Assist Trophies at most.

Speaking of costumes, the Sans costume exists. It would seem somewhat strange to me to get the Sans costume, and then Frisk like a year later.

There's one thing that gives me pause: we still haven't gotten Undertale spirits despite the Mii Costume. We did, however, get Spirits to go along with the Cuphead Mii Costume. Now, I don't think this proves anything. There are a lot more reasonable explanations than them holding back Spirits to release alongside Frisk. However, it's enough for me to bump Frisk's chances from 1% to 3%.

Want: 70%

Honestly, Undertale is a cultural phenomenon. Being five years old and still fondly remembered, it's proved to have staying power - especially since its ???quel, Deltarune, is currently in development. While it's already represented by the Sans Mii Costume, I think it would absolutely make sense as a full-fledged inclusion with a fighter, stage, and everything.

Nominations: Monokuma x10.
Prediction for Scorpion: 20%

 

[fogbadge]

abstain nom qbby x5

 

[BowserKing]

Frisk

Chance: 10%. While Sans is in the game as a Mii Costume, it’s still surprising that Undertale does not have spirits, so Frisk showing up would be a slight but likely chance. With that said, Frisk is likely to be a spirit if that character arrived.

Want: 50%. Frisk would be fun to play as, and I can see Frisk partner with the Mii Gunner (with Sans Mii Costume of course) against something like Piranha Plant. Overall, Frisk would make a decent choice for a Smash Bros Rep.

Prediction: Scorpion: 15%

Noms: 5 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[PeridotGX]

Chance: 10%.

Yeah, that's quite a bit higher than most would consider reasonable. But I think there's a somewhat plausible avenue for an actual Undertale rep, who would probably be Frisk. Flashback to the Sans costume revealed, which accompanied Banjo's release and Terry's reveal. The costume dwarfed both of them in sheer impact. I heard people talking about in real life, which hadn't ever happened before for Smash (and only happened since with ). Flash forward to the full unveil of Volume 2 in the Byleth present, there's a peculiar 6th fighter in the pass. Sakurai even mentioned that not all of the characters were added at the same time. I think it's possible that Nintendo saw the massive reaction to the Sans costume and told Sakurai to add Frisk to the post -V1 DLC plans. This extended the pass of 5 characters, matching the first, to 6. This would explain the lack of Undertale spirits, they were scrapped and delayed once they decided to add an Undertale character.

It should also be mentioned that Undertale is just as, if not bigger, over in Japan compared to here. And while UT is indie, Toby's been given the opportunity to compose in Pokemon, which I think makes it the slightest bit more important than other indies.

Want: 90%. I have a triad of most wanteds who are pretty much tied. The character directly after them? Frisk. I loved Undertale, and I think Frisk could have a very unique move set. More than any other character, I also really want to see the side content. Seeing an Undertale location remade in HD, hearing a bunch of Undertale music remixed officially, it would be incredible.

Noms: Maxwell x10

(here's a Frisk moveset I made)

Frisk (MYM)

Frisk is DETERMINED to fight! Frisk is the main character of the 2015 indie game Undertale. A human, they decide to climb the famous Mt. Ebott, but trip on their way up the mountain. They fall into the Underground, a cave system full of monsters, both nice and… not as nice. Their fate is in Fri...

docs.google.com

 

[DanganZilla5]

Frisk

Chance: 2%

I do believe that the Sans Mii costume will be all we get for Undertale. At the most we could get a spirit event since that happened with Cuphead. I believe this because while Undertale is a cultural phenomenon and has staying power, it's still an indie game and depending on whether you think Steve is an indie character or not, it's still not a fair comparison since Minecraft is the best selling game so it's possible that Minecraft may be the only indie game to get a character. Of course we could get another indie character but that brings up the topic of competition. You got Quote, Shantae, Reimu, Hollow Knight, etc. There are plenty of options and since Undertale is already represented, I could see Nintendo and especially Sakurai pushing to get a new indie game represented.

Want: 5%

Sorry Undertale fans this just doesn't appeal to me. I never got into Undertale and all I wanted was Megalovania. Since we got that and Sans in Smash I'm satisfied. The music would be sweet but in this case it doesn't help my want score that much. When it comes to newcomers I think it's much more exciting when a character from a brand new game with zero Smash gets in instead of a character from an already represented series. This doesn't apply to everything in my eyes, like for example I think more Castlevania content would be cool despite everything we already have. Same goes for Monster Hunter, Shantae, etc. since I'm more fond of those series. But again Undertale is a game that I never really had any real interest of seeing in Smash in the first place. So the point is, I would be more excited for other indie characters like Quote or Reimu.

Prediction: Scorpion - 4% (People really think this is going to get a 20%+? I don't think so considering that MK is banned in Japan)

Noms: Vectorman x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Frisk

Chance 0 - Think the Sans Mii Costume killed this one dead. Pretty sure it was announced around the time fighers pass 2 would have been decided anyways, which kills Sans dead. As for Frisk though, he may be the protag but it feels like Sans is the most popular and interesting character from Undertale. The only real shot it feels like Undertale had was with Sans. I never really considered Frisk a possible option and still don't.

Want 0 - Not really interested in any Undertale reps other than Sans. Dont even want Sans that much tbh but I want him a lot more than I do Frisk. Feels like there's just a lot better picks out there right now. He's also some competition for some characters I do want on 2 fronts. First, the indie one where my most wanted is Hollow Knight. I also believe Toby Fox counts as a western developer, which means that he and Frisk is competing against a ton of characters I'm more interested in and getting Frisk over someone like Crash would really, really suck.

Predictions:
Scorpion -6.73%

Noms:
TRex Runner x10

 

[warpenguin55]

Frisk
Chance: 0%
I know that it was in the last pass, but that Sans Mii costume is what kills Frisk for me. Terry's release was pretty close to when we think the FP2 roster was locked, so they probably wouldn't have released that Sans Mii costume if Frisk was still on the table.

Want: 0%
I'm not really interested in seeing this one happen. If Undertale got any kind of rep, I''d prefer Sans. He's the most well known character from the game and would make the most sense to me.

Noms: LoL Rep x5

 

[ZeroJanitor]

Frisk

Chance: 0.1%
It really does seem like the Undertale content in Smash began and ended with Sans/Megalovania, and it would be strange to get that only for an Undertale character to actually show up as playable and presumably bring a lot of their own content like stages and music after the fact. Like it would really diminish the impact Sans had. That said, Undertale remains a highly popular game beloved by many, so I don't feel like it's completely out of the question, but it would take a miracle.

Want: 80%
A true Undertale rep would already be exciting to me for the music and moveset potential, but Frisk is one of my favorite characters from the game so that would make the package even sweeter. Maybe other people would prefer Undyne or Papyrus or whatever, who are also great picks, but idk I love my theyby characters.

Noms: Guybrush Threepwood x10

 

[Lionfranky]

Frisk

Chance: 0%

I see no reason to go back to Undertale when there is already Sans Mii costume. Why not save that for later with Frisk? There is simply no point in doing that. At least, Ezio is more famous and popular than Altair, so there is still argument to be made for Ezio. Frisk is opposite of that. He has no advantage whatsoever. One can argue that Steve is indie rep... but since Mojang belongs to Microsoft, that argument goes out of water as his origin is irrelevant. Minecraft has reason to be exception as Undertale is a small fry compared to it. No comparison.

Want: 10%

While I enjoyed Undertale, I want to give slots to new series. I can see glimpse of moveset potential, but that's not enough for me to change my opinion. There are still so many more characters that would be more interesting than Frisk. I wouldn't be mad, but disappointed if Frisk takes up a slot. I give Undertale what it's due, but not to this extent.

Nom: Video game characters that don't have games on Nintendo platform x 10

 

[amageish]

Frisk

Chance: 1.5%. There's definitely a timeline where Nintendo went "My god; the Sans Mii Costume broke the internet. Let's give them a full Undertale pack," especially as Sans was announced after we knew more DLC was coming but before we knew how it was coming (with a 6-fighter pass) so there is possibly a gap to sneak something in (especially with the pass randomly being one fighter more then the last one). That said, the fact that things technically could line up well for them doesn't mean all that much - it's easy to spin hypotheticals about things lining up for different characters. Undertale is a big popular game from a developer that is pretty chummy with Nintendo (though moreso Game Freak) that currently has one thing in Smash and could, one day, get a playable character. That describes a lot of franchises and competition is just hard for this one.

Want: 85%. I like Undertale. It's not my favourite game and it would neither be my top pick of an indie rep or a RPG rep, but I wouldn't mind something more. There are still a craptonne of good songs it could bring to Smash. It has no spirits, so the spirit board would be all unique spirits. The potential gimmicks of an Act v Attack moveset intrigue me. If we got more, then I'd be pretty satisfied.

Nominations: Monika Mii Costume x 10
Predictions: I'm guessing this will be a split day, with some high and some low scores + a lot of arguing about the nuances between "banned" and "not allowed to be sold." 12%.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Frisk

Chance: 0.5% - I feel like the Sans Mii Costume is the extent of Undertale content that we'll get, expecially for a franchise so young. Plus Megalovania would be a track they'd want to add to an Undertale-themed pack as a major selling point if it were happening. Undertale does have the necessary pedigree but competition with other indies that are also close to Nintendo, along with said Sans costume are major barriers to Frisk's inclusion at this point of time. Now, I can see Undertale eventually getting a spirit event ala Cuphead or maybe some content from Deltarune at some point, but Undertale really doesn't seem poised for a character slot. Furthermore, Sans' costume was revealed around the time FP2 decisions were locked, so while there's always a possibility, it's an extremely slim one.

Want: 10% - I did enjoy my time with Undertale but aside from maybe some cool remixes it really doesn't translate to a desire to see Frisk in Smash. A lot of indies that have Nintendo ties deserve the attention, so seeing a bunch of them get nothing while Undertale gets tons of love just wouldn't feel right. Especially in regards to Quote, the indie rep that I want to see most. Nicalis' reputation be ****ed, Undertale owes a lot of inspiration to Cave Story and earlier indies, and to see said indies get nothing at all while Undertale gets a feast would honestly be unfair. So while I wouldn't mind Frisk as a fighter in a future game, there's characters I'd MUCH rather see get in before Frisk. I know a lot of people want him (even if Sans was more popular) and Undertale's time will come eventually, but with only four slots left he/she'll have to wait awhile.


Nominations:
Don-chan x5
4x Strategy Rep x5

Predictions:
Scorpion - 10.72% - Expecting plenty of high rankings based on Mortal Kombat's importance but a ton of low ratings based on it being banned in Japan.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

-_-
Chance: 1%
I too think the Sans costume is likely the most Undertale has to settle with. It's not impossible, I'm still bothered by the lack of any Undertale spirits and the overwhelming reaction the Sans costume got could perhaps get Nintendo to reconsider and see Undertale as worthy of a full fighter. But it's not very realistic however. All characters in Volume 2 might've been fully planned by the time that costume was revealed making kneejerk changes like that not worth it at that point. Those potential Undertale Spirits could also just come on their own eventually, or never at all, who knows? I'm also not so sure about a potential moveset for Frisk. Don't see much combat potential there. Maybe I'm not creative enough but I was never full on board with them as a fighter.

Want: 25%
I'm all for more Undertale content but Frisk themselves wouldn't excite me much. If this challenger pack were to happen I'd be more hyped for the stage, music selction and Spirit board than the character it would come with. If we have to get an Undertale rep just give me someone like Papyrus instead. He'd be may more fun and has a personality. But I'm not sure if I would even take Undertale in this pass if it would mean a Hollow Knight character pack getting disconfirmed.

Scorpion: 9.37%
The Knight x10

 

[Lyncario]

I tried to make a joke, but all my atempts ended up being really terrible, and by that I mean far more than usual so here's this instead for Frisk

Chance: 0%

Like other people here, I do think that the Sans mii costume seals it for Frisk or any other Undertale rep to get in. And while it's different from Heihachi's case as the Sans mii was part of wave 1 and before Terry's reveal (when it was known that we would get more dlc), I do think that it's close enough so that Sakurai would have a good enough timeframe to know which series wouldn't get a fighter and so would be ok to get a Mii without risking it being redundant. And if we want to talk about something else related to Frisk's chances, well, Frisk is the protagonist of UT so in my opinion, they would get picked over Sans to be playable, and also UT is very popular and also relevant thanks to it's rerelease on PS4 and Switch and also the existance of Deltarune. And also it seems that Toby is favoring the Nintendo Switvh alongside PC for UT and Deltarune, at least I think so, and also considering that Toby is working a lot with Nintendo/Gamefreak lately (for those that don't know, he made music for the Battle Tower in Pokemon Sword and Shield and the soundtrack in Little Town Hero), it may very well make Frisk very likely for the next Smash game, but not for this fighter pass in my opinion.

Want: 75%

Sure, why not. After all, Undertale is a great game even if it's at the same time extremly overrated and underrated. Like, it's not one of the best game of all time even if it's good, and it absolutely got it's place at TGA in 2015 because it's popular more than anything else (like how Among Us got nominated this year despite being a game from 2018), tough there's also way too many people calling bad because of the fanbase or the graphics. Otherwise, Frisk could have a very interesting moveset, especialy if pacifist/genocide mechanics are implemented in their moveset. Chara alts would also be cool. Also An UT stage could be interesting, and of course the music would be very good.

Nominations

Boss Rush x10

Predictions

Scorpion: 5.6%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Green Ness

Chance: 5%
I don't think Sans' Mii Costume completely disqualifies Undertale from getting a second character. Its release date is in a very grey area where we don't know if the Pass had been finalized, so there's the possibility that they chose to include a fighter after the costume's intense reaction. Even if the Pass had already been defined, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that they planned a fighter for Pass 2, and while they were at it they chose to make a more immediate Mii Costume. But aside from that, well, it's still a Western indie, even if it's probably the most well known.

Want: abstain
I really can't envision a moveset for Frisk that's faithful to Undertale's gameplay. So while I love the game and would be very happy to see it get a fighter, in the end my reaction would depend on the moveset.

Noms: Cooking Mama x10
Scorpion prediction: alright, this is it. Will a character I nominated finally get a good score? Probably not because it doesn't get localized in Japan. sigh 8.48%

 

[Sari]

Frisk

Chance: 1%
We got a Sans costume towards the end of the last pass. My thoughts on FP1 content is still a bit undecided but I'm moreso leaning towards FP1 series not getting any new content/characters (Undertale, Assassin's Creed, etc.). Also Sans is pretty much the face of Undertale at this point. It's true that we usually get the main character/mascot of a series first when it comes to playable characters, however I feel like for Undertale they'd just go for Sans.

Another issue could be moveset complications for Frisk. One of the main features of Undertale is that you can play the game passively and not attack/kill anyone. This isn't some minor feature or an easter egg: it's a major aspect of the game that leads to alternate routes and is pretty much the entire theme of Undertale as a whole. It's one thing to add a new move or mechanics, but to make a character that revolves almost entirely around not fighting sounds way too complicated to create. This might be another case like Heihachi where Sakurai has trouble figuring out how they'd fight and is another reason why Sans would probably have priority.

I was originally going to give this a 0.1%, but after hearing that there still aren't any Undertale spirits I'll boost my score up by just a small amount.

Want: Abstain
I still have yet to get around to finishing Undertale so I'll abstain from an actual want score. I will say though that a moveset revolving around not fighting the opponent is interesting, even if it'd be annoying to fight against.

-----

Scorpion chance prediction: 7.41% (should be much lower considering the series is basically non-existent in Japan due to all the bans).

Nominations:
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get a deluxe enhancement) x10