Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[amageish]

Coco as Crash's Alt or Echo Fighter

Chance: 2% Echoes as DLC seem to be a ship that has sailed, unfortunately. If we were to get them, then I, like most others, would especially be surprised if they were echoes of DLC characters - double-especially if they're new DLC characters - as you're effectively just giving a cheaper way of buying the new character's moveset... Or you package an echo in with the challenger pack, which would make pack objectively better value? Or you make it so DLC is locked behind buying more DLC, which is just confusing... So, uh, yeah. Not optimistic on that front.

So, dismissing the echo part, what about as an alt? Well, the problem is that I'm not sure Coco is quite in-line with the reasons they pick alts... Hero has four alts to rep Dragon Quest's legacy. Byleth's alts are the definition of obligatory, as a given player will only be familar with one of the two Byleths (and, like, I don't think I need to explain the implications that would be inherit in excluding one of them). Joker's alt highlights the main gameplay loop of P5 where you're split between school mode and metaverse mode. Now, Coco is playable in Crash games - and in every level in It's About Time as straight-up the secondary protagonist - but I'm not sure that those appearances are enough to push her into a mandatory alt. She'd very much be a case of "Oh, wow, that's very nice as a bonus" and not "This feels kind of obligatory for representing the franchise accurately." And she's just a lot of work as a bonus? Zombie and Enderman weren't obligatory either, but they are basically just changing textures of the same model. Meanwhile, Coco and Crash don't share skeletons - F!Byleth does have some unprecedentedly unique animations, but she's still mostly in-line with her male counterpart.

That said, I'm still giving a tiny chance just because... Frankly, I feel like every character nowadays has something that makes me go "Wait, that's possible in Smash?" and there is something about this just feels like could break logic? I know that's a bad argument, but, in spite of everything I've said, there is some part of me feels like Sakurai would go "Well, there are some players who have only played Crash 4 and only played as Coco, so let's throw them a bone... Literally as we need to build a second skeleton for a Crash alt and break the basic meaning of 'alt.'"

Want: Abstain. I generally like more characters, but don't have much attachment to Crash as an IP.

Prediction: So, do we call giving high numbers for Fortnite as being "optimistic" or "pessimistic" for their odds? 60%.
Nominations: Monika Mii Costume x 10

 

[DanganZilla5]

Cococooccooco

Chance: 1%

After thinking about it, I don't think this is happening. Everyone has already mentioned how DLC echo fighters are very unlikely which I agree with. As for Coco being an alt costume, well her proportions don't match with Crash and she has a different enough personality from Crash that it would not make sense to have her as an alt. Sure female Byleth has different animations but amageish explained it very well where Coco feels more like a bonus in the games, rather than an essential element that needs to be playable to represent the series properly (specifically, I'm referring to the fact that she is essentially a bonus character who does not have unique moves and is completely optional). With this concept, I'm just gonna go with my gut feeling and say that it's not happening though I will leave a 1% as other than the concerns with animations and echo fighters taking up more time, this does make sense regardless because Coco is a major character and it does feel like something that Sakurai could say "**** it" and go for it anyways.

Want: 100%

Again, I'm not sure if she would work as an alt, but if we could get an echo fighter, absolutely. Crash is tied with Phoenix as my most wanted character so whatever content he brings with him I would be super happy with. Coco is a good character and it would make a lot of sense to see her join the roster alongside Crash with them being brother and sister. This would also open the door for other DLC echoes or unique alts. Overall, I would be grateful if this happened.

Prediction: Fortnite - 25%

Noms: Vectorman x10

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I have no opinion on Coco as an Echo.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I'm gonna abstain because...How exactly do I rate this?

I don't think it's fair to determine the chances of this concept being realized as an Echo Fighter or an alt. as being equal to one and other. They've very different things. And there's no indication that we're supposed to rate the chances of these concepts separately, no want percentages, for that matter.

I will say that, after what we've seen with Enderman, I really don't think proportions are gonna be that big of a deal for an alt. So I'd definitely say a Coco alt. has a decent chance of happening, assuming Crash is even part of Fighter Pass #2's line-up begin with.

Fortnite Prediction: 35.8%

Nominations: Tetra x10...Unless I don't have extra noms anymore in which case make it just Tetra x5 lol.

 

[MisterMike]

Chance: 0%
Echo Fighters are supposed to be able to reuse the same basic skeleton as their base fighter. Coco has a neck and Crash doesn't. I have no idea why people unironically suggest that this is possible.

Abstain on a want score.

 

[Mr. MR]

Coco Echo

Chance: 1%
We haven't gotten an echo for DLC yet and we don't have anything that suggests that they will start doing it now. However this is something we possibly might think is impossible until it actually happens. That said I think they main purpose of Echos was to add popular characters without people getting mad that these characters are taking valuable slots. Crash is still just an assumption at this point and so I can't rate this highly as it is dependent on that fact. I can't give this a 0 because it very well could happen. I just see no evidence at the moment.

Want: Abstain
I haven't played the new Crash games but I enjoyed the ones I played more than a decade ago. Because the idea itself is tied to the assumption of a playable Crash, I have to refresh my experiences with the game before I can give a reasonable rating. That also means I can't give my basic 'extra content rating'.

Noms: Mii Costume: 2B x10
Predict Fortnite: 17.328%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Coco Echo/Skin

15% Chance

Now keep in mind, I am one of the biggest Crash stans on the site. I think Crash is one of the most likely characters. But I personally do think that this has its hurdles. Namely, getting Crash to begin with. I could turn this into another giant Crash for Smash post, but I will spare you all.

Now, the main reason I specified this concept as either an echo or an alt is because tbh, I think either can happen but an alt is way more likely. Until we get a DLC character with an echo (which if I am honest, I feel only the last character might have), it is not something I want to bet on.

Now as an alt, things get a bit spicier. Two of our DLC characters help sell that Smash's rules about alts are...weird for DLC. Byleth, believe it or not, does have different animations for their Male and Female skins, mainly in their idles and victory poses. Meanwhile, Steve helps show that proportions can be toyed with in terms of Smash. Enderman has notably skinnier arms than the other alts. In terms of what animations would need to be unique, honestly just Taunts and Victory poses. Maybe you could do something with idles. But given that Coco and Crash already share similar animations in their games, it is not a stretch.

Now in terms of it happening, it depends. Smash missed some perfect Terry alts that could have happened, so going for alts is a weird thing to predict. I would say that it is something that could happen, but my gut right now says unlikely.

100% Want

If there is one element of Activision Crash that really has worked, its their take on Coco. Having her playable in the N Sane Trilogy was a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one. She got a ton of skins and favoritism in CTRNF (probably one of the best set of skins that game). She also is very funny in terms of her writing as Crash's straight man in Its About Time. Also I would love to see more wholesome fan art of Crash being Coco's big brother and doing big brother things.

I just hope that there wont be too much...other fan art.

Concept: League of Legends Character x 10 warpenguin55 I know nothing of League but I believe you do, please help lol

Day over, Rate Concept: Fortnite Character and Predict Impa (Age of Calamity)

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Fortnite mood:
Probably the funniest and most cursed sentence I've ever had to type out

Spoiler: Fortnite Music

 

[DanganZilla5]

Which stage are we dropping into boys?

Chance: 30%

I could see this happening. One thing that people will point out is that Fortnite is too recent to be considered because it needs to build a bigger legacy first. Not true necessarily. Minecraft was in negotiations starting 5 years after it released. Fortnite has been out for 3 years now and to this day it's still popular. It's even popular in Japan from what I have been able to decipher. While Fortnite was not the first Battle Royale game, nor the one that brought it into the mainstream (that was PUBG's doing), it is the most popular and has taken the gaming industry by storm. But just because you come from a popular game does not mean you are guaranteed a spot. Fortnite is a western game and I only see 1, maybe 2, more western characters making it into this fighters pass. In that regard, Crash and Dragonborn in particular are obstacles for him in that front. I also have to point out that we just got a character whose main gimmick is terraforming and placing walls. I feel like Steve already took away the biggest thing that a Fortnite character could bring to the table.

Still, Fortnite is huge and it's on the Switch. I could see Nintendo going for this.


Want: 0%

I don't like to hate on games just because they are popular. I acknowledge that Fortnite is a good game and it would make at least a certain group of the Smash community happy. But the idea of Fortnite in Smash is cringe to me. I would not mind a spirit event or mii costume. But for the love of Arceus please do not have it take up one of those 4 spots. Even though I like battle royale games, Fortnite doesn't appeal to me. Admittedly having the default dance in Smash would be hilarious and the stage might be cool if they have it be a scrolling stage and with people fighting in the background. That might be cool as it would feel like you are fighting in a warzone. But even those things are not going to save this concept from a zero. Yeah, keep this game away from Smash.

Prediction: Impa - 35%

Noms: Vectorman x10

 

[Perkilator]

Ooooh, boy…

Chance: IDK
Just because Minecraft got a character doesn’t necessarily mean Fortnite will. Not even Steve was guaranteed (especially not guaranteed after Banjo).

Want: 0%

Just hearing about Fortnite was the bane of my high school junior year. I was so annoyed when other students wouldn’t shut the everlasting fire truck up about it, I got legit angry and, IIRC, was starting to act violent (but thankfully, I didn’t actually attack anyone). The widespread of Fortnite at that time made me too aggressive to control it…and I was scared. Scared that I could continue this violent behavior (which I didn’t, don’t worry) over something that nobody would shut up about.

…So yeah, if you couldn’t tell, I don’t want Fortnite anywhere near Ultimate. Purely because I don’t want to relive those moments in my head.

AOC Impa: 40%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Fortnite Character Chance: 40%

The game is a somewhat newer IP, but it's a massive success financially and is quite well known, with a huge playerbase, tons of Youtube and Twitch content, memes, and more. Given that Nintendo's calling the shots on the DLC, I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if this idea came to pass. It's the corporation that's making the choices, so long as Sakurai can make a good, faithful moveset for the character they request. And this pick would definitely garner money. That it's a shooter game does nothing to affect it's chances, especially since it's one of the more cartooney and less violent shooters out there. I wouldn't call this more likely to happen than not, but don't underestimate the game's influence and popularity, as controversial of a game it may be.

Want: 0%

I don't even hate Fortnite (in fact it irks me when people relentlessly mock it's fans just for playing it), but I don't like Fortnite, either. The gameplay looks way too chaotic and hectic for my interests, far less interesting than the Hero Shooters I've been drawn to in the past (Team Fortress 2, Overwatch, etc) I dislike the character models and artstyle immensely, and, last but not least, the sheer amount of controversy and backlash it would brew in the Smash community would be absolutely unbearable to put up with. I'm sorry to say it, but no thanks on this one.

Impa Prediction: 27.7%

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Fortnite Representation

Chance: 30% - We don't have full verification on the Zoom call but it feels more trustworthy given the reputation of the one who leaked it. Furthermore, unlike the Adol leak, this is a simple comment (and one we've heard recently from Suda51 as well, which certainly makes things suspicious), so I highly doubt Nintendo would crack down on it (if anything it makes it MORE believable). Outside of that, the game's on the Switch, it's popular, and would certainly print money.

The only issues I see are that either Donald could be giving a generalist answer to avoid saying No directly, along with the hurdle Western characters have. Though given how much Steve blindsided us more Western characters could be more likely than we thought. There's also the possibility we get a Mii costume or spirits instead. It really depends on Nintendo's priorities, along with how Fortnite could be doing in Japan. The setup is there (Nintendo representation and corporate relationship), but at the same time it doesn't assure anything.

Want: 50% - I'll start with the negatives. I wouldn't want to see a character with little history take one of the remaining four slots, along with one of the fewer spots Western characters could get. There ads definitelt better choices for a Hero shooter rep like Overwatch and TF2 (and I say this as someone with a very negative history with Valve's games) who have more history and merit. However, he'd still play uniquely, and the sheer hilarity and insanity caused by the inclusion of someone like Jonesy would loop back around and make this such a funny and historic inclusion. Furthermore, we lived through the disasterous inclusion of Byleth, how bad can Jonesy really be?


Nominations:
Don-chan x5
4x Strategy Rep x5

Predictions:
Impa - 26.82% -Recency bias will be in full effect, though she also has the history and reoccuring appearences to back it up.

 

[Lyncario]

Fork Knife

Chance: 0.1%

It's popular, relevant, and does nothing that Steve doesn't already do better than any Fortnite rep could hope to do in term of everything related to what Nintendo could benefit from their inclusions. Sakurai talked about how trendy 3rd party weren't picked or something in one of his Famitsu, so that goes against it I guess. Also it's a western 3rd party company who's relationship with Nintendo isn't bad but also nowhere near the likes of Microsoft, Ubisoft, or even Bethesda. Kirby was in a Fortnite trailer, I think, but I feel that it's more like it was something the animators added without thinking about copyright since he was censored in the non-Switch versions of the trailer, and well if there was going to be a special collaboration between Fortnite and Kirby/Nintendo it wouldn't have been in the general trailer for whatever it was. The thing about how theit was a no-comment about Fortnie being in Smash is that historicaly, It like never ended up being as a character, unless I forgot that one t hapened otherwise, but if you look at it, Shovel Knight is an AT, Shantae is a spirit, Travis is a mii, and I think that this is it. Also while Smash is big, in the interview where it was said it was also said that Fortnite would have it's biggest collaboration yet, and Smash is not bigger than Star Wars, and Fortnie had collaborations with both it and the MCU already. So yeah, there's effctively nohting that a Fortnite character would do that Steve just doesn't already do far better, is very possibly too recent of a 3rd party (I know that it had like a PvE mode or something, but that's a non-entity compared to what Fortnite is today), so he's not likely at all in my opinion despite what Steve "showed otherwise" or something, despite how Minecraft is over 10 years old and the average player is like 24 according to statistics. Really the only thing Minecraft and Fortnite have in common is that they're popular games, even in Japan fro mwhat I heard, but even then Minecraft already does everything Fortnie could ever hope to do but far better.

Want: 0%

I don't like Fortnite at all, and it's not even just because it's "new and popular", and that I'm a boomer or some crap, no, it's just that it's bad. Fortnie is like Survival/Hunter Games in Minecraft servers, execpt there's only that, and it's also way less balanced, more rng reliant, more ptw, and all of that stuff that just makes it worse than a single Minecraft minigames on Minecraft minigames servers. A big part of what I like about Minecraft is the shear diversity of content, but Fortnite pretty much has none of this, like I think that there's a building mode but that's just so obviously trying to do Minecraft creative mode but in Fortnite and with way less options and a way more linear creation than what even average builders do, like I do better houses in Minecraft Survival when I only have some wood and cobblestone to either place or to melt, like, that's just pathetic. Minecrafty is a game of infinite possibilities and did what Fortnite did but way bettter way before it did and it wasn't even the developers, but the comunity. I just don't like the game. And as far as what a Fortnite character could do in Smash, Steve's mining and blocks mechanics but with a gun. Steve is fun because of wacky options like Minecart and Anvil that have actualy great designs, a Fortnie character would just camp in air bases, like in Fortnite.

Nominations

Boss rush x10

Predictions

Impa: 15.8%

 

[GoodGrief741]

FORTNITE... And Marques Brownlee

Chance: abstain
Yeah, I'm obviously not qualified to tell you how likely Fortnite is. I feel like it's likely, but that could simply be pessimism speaking. Still, more than anything, our last inclusion says they could very well be looking at the biggest games out there, and you'd be hard-pressed to miss Fortnite in that category.

Fortnite is also an advertising juggernaut that has convinced even the biggest companies and stars to align themselves with it, to the point where Disney put crucial plot points to the latest Star Wars movie in a ****ing Fortnite event. John Wick is in it. Thanos is in it. The Joker is in it. Obviously, as Fortnite is cross-platform, Nintendo can't put their characters in Fortnite because they would, by necessity, end up in rival consoles. But if they want to partner up, they could do the opposite, feature Fortnite in a Nintendo product, such as Smash. And Nintendo has promoted Fortnite a lot (who can't remember the great Reggie talking about dropping off the battle bus?)

Now, if you know me, what I'm about to say might seem surprising. But, I've seen a lot of comments lately, what with the alleged leak and all, that Fortnite is too young to be considered and that it's totally different from Minecraft and... I'm gonna defend Fortnite on this one?

Like, Fortnite's big. Industry-altering big. Force-Sony-to-introduce-crossplay big. Start-a-rival-to-Steam big. The ramifications of its success will be felt for years to come. It made free-to-play a viable strategy that AAA devs have tried to replicate, like EA's Apex Legends and Activision's Call of Duty: Warzone - and, on the flipside, it taught a generation of kids that games should be free, and profited from selling them microtransactions. Like Minecraft started a trend of voxel sandboxes with crafting mechanics, Fortnite also led a wave of copycats. I think the writing's on the wall. Like Minecraft, it'll drop off sometime soon, only to resurge in around ten years when the people who played it as kids start feeling nostalgic for it and come back to it. Could they wait 10 years to see if this effectively came to pass? Sure, I guess they could, but these are the people who put Incineroar in Smash so there's no argument to be made that they care about picks aging poorly.

Want: 0%
Don't get me wrong. Like Minecraft, I also think Fortnite is a solid 8/10 at best that only got as big as it did because of blind luck rather than its quality or originality. They're derivative games starring nothing more than glorified skins. So, no, I'd like Fortnite to stay as far away from Smash as possible, thank you very much.

Noms: Cooking Mama x10
Impa prediction: 40%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Coco as Crash's Echo/Costume pre-Concept: Fortnite character

Miriam x165
Red (Angry Birds) x160
[Rerate] The Knight x155
[Rerate] Maxwell x150
Cynthia (Pokémon) x150
Hajime Hinata x140
D.Va x115
Don-chan x115

150 - 101

Concept: Second F-Zero rep x114
Mii Costume: Monika x105

100 - 51

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x100
T-Rex Runner x100
Boss: Ender Dragon x98
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x96
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Riptor x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Boss: Rayquaza x80
Vectorman x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Carl Johnson x75
Crazy Dave x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Giygas x70
Worms x70
[Rerate] Monokuma x70
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x70
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
John Marston x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Qbby x55

50 - 25

Concept: A 4X strategy rep x45
Tetra x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Echo (Bowser) x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Mii Costume: 2B x20
Cooking Mama x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Mii Costume: Zagreus x5
Velvet Crowe x5

Don-chan enters the top seven tied with D.Va in last place.

Mii Costume: Monika has just over 100 noms.

Qbby collects over 50 noms.

Joining the list today is Velvet Crowe, with 5 noms!

Cutie Gwen You didn't get to 10 noms, only 5, so who'd you want to give them to?
pupNapoleon We rated the unreleased game concept two days ago. Do you want to nominate a rerate of that?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on Fortnite.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Fornite rep

Chance 20 - I see some reasons why Fortnite could get in. First of all, it's iconic in the current day. I'm not sure there's a more relevant game in media today other than... well... Smash maybe? Damn, that's kinda wild tbh. But anyways, I feel like if you could find a more culturally popular character to put in Smash than Steve, it would be Jonsey or some version of him. There's also the fact that Tencent has some sort of investment in them which feels like something and the game is apparently a big hit in China and could be used to appeal to the Chinese market. Overall though I think that theyd probably go for a game/sereis they own more of in League of Legends, as google searches tell me Tencent only owns 40 percent of Epic/Fortnite.

Want 10 - Yeah I don't really have much interest in this. Not every series is something I want to see in Smash, and Fortnite is one of them. Even though they don't exactly fit the generic protag model, the characters still kinda feel souless even with their number of dances. And on top of that there's just so many more shooter reps that interest me so much more. I could go list them off but there's just so many I'd rather see come before Fornite that it would be better to just not list them instead.

Predictions:
Impa 44%

Noms:
TRex Runner x10

 

[pupNapoleon]

pupNapoleon We rated the unreleased game concept two days ago. Do you want to nominate a rerate of that?

Nah, must have missed that page.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Coco as Crash's Echo/Costume pre-Concept: Fortnite character

Miriam x165
Red (Angry Birds) x160
[Rerate] The Knight x155
[Rerate] Maxwell x150
Cynthia (Pokémon) x150
Hajime Hinata x140
D.Va x115
Don-chan x115

150 - 101

Concept: Second F-Zero rep x114
Mii Costume: Monika x105

100 - 51

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x100
T-Rex Runner x100
Boss: Ender Dragon x98
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x96
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Riptor x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Boss: Rayquaza x80
Vectorman x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Carl Johnson x75
Crazy Dave x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Giygas x70
Worms x70
[Rerate] Monokuma x70
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x70
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
John Marston x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Qbby x55

50 - 25

Concept: A 4X strategy rep x45
Tetra x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Echo (Bowser) x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Mii Costume: 2B x20
Cooking Mama x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Mii Costume: Zagreus x5

Don-chan enters the top seven tied with D.Va in last place.

Mii Costume: Monika has just over 100 noms.

Qbby collects over 50 noms.

Cutie Gwen You didn't get to 10 noms, only 5, so who'd you want to give them to?
pupNapoleon We rated the unreleased game concept two days ago. Do you want to nominate a rerate of that?

Do it for Velvet. In fact, give her 10 cause I'm abstaining on rating today, I don't know enough or care enough about Fortnite and am putting today's noms to her too

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Forklift
Chance: Abstaining, certainly possible but I can't really gauge how likely it would be.

Want: 0%
I'm not really interested in the Battle Royale genre. I won't hate on it just for being popular, Fortnite is probably a fine enough game, but I have no desire for a fighter. The avatars in the game look painfully generic and unappealing. They just don't share the charm Steve/Alex arguably have. Also this would be another western rep and thus competition to my preffered characters.

Impa: 21.32%
The Knight x5

 

[fogbadge]

abstain. i know next to nothing about fortnite beyond everything about it is unappealing. nom qbby x5

 

[BowserKing]

Fortnite Character

Chance: 15%. Given how popular the franchise is, plus it being on the switch, it would seem like a shoo in. But thing is, that franchise is divisive when it comes to fans, and it would be a surprise if they get in.

Want: ???. I’m quite conflicted about that franchise getting in. On one hand, a stage would be unique, as with the weapons. On the other hand, I don’t know what character would get in, let along with a character from that game being a good idea. That is my opinion on this conflicting game being in Smash Bros.

Prediction: Impa (Age of Calamity): 20%

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[Sari]

Concept: Fortnite Character

Chance: 10%
In the span of about 3 years, Fortnite has quickly become one of the most popular games in the world. It essentially kickstarted the battle royale genre of games and has had a ton of crossovers with the likes of the Stranger Things, Star Wars, and the Marvel Cinematic Universe (with Fortnite even appearing in Avengers: Endgame). If Nintendo wants to bring in even more people into Smash, then a Fortnite character actually makes a ton of sense. Furthermore there is also that one guy from Epic apparently saying "no comment" in regards to Fortnite in Smash. A similar thing happened with Steve and Travis and we all know how that turned out. Main issues I see with this happening is that Epic doesn’t exactly have a close relationship with Nintendo, with them being a Western company and Fortnite being their only game on a Nintendo system. There's also a possibility that Fortnite might be too recent for Nintendo when it comes to third parties, as we know that negotiations for Steve started back in the SSB4 days. Perhaps Nintendo might want to see how long Fortnite lasts before putting in a full-on character. At best I can see a Mii Costume or spirit event happen but a character might be stretching it.

Also this doesn't affect the chance score too much, but I feel like Fortnite's gimmick of building platforms has already been covered by Steve. Yes I know that someone like Jonesy would be really unique on their own, but to have an extremely similar gimmick in the same pass is something I have a hard time seeing.

Want: 0%
I won’t lie: a very small part of me wants this to happen just because it’d be so hilarious to see everyone freak out about. But really though, a small laugh is the only good thing I can see coming out of this. As far as realistic choices go, this would probably be one of the worst characters to add. In general, I prefer third party characters from series that aren't too recent (usually at least 5 years old). That way you can tell whether they've stood the test of time or if their popularity was just temporary (see Yo-Kai Watch). Now of course there are a few exceptions like Hat Kid and maybe some other indies who I'd like to see in Smash, but even then I wouldn’t want them getting in over most other characters because of their recency. Everything about a Fortnite character getting into Smash just screams forced promotion where I can't see Nintendo/Sakurai adding them into Smash for anything aside from money.

On top of all of this, someone like Jonesy would clash with a ton of specific things that I wouldn't like to see. Hero based shooter character? Sorry I would much prefer some TF2 representation first. Realistic weapons fighter? Eh, it could be interesting but I'd still rather have a GTA character instead. Buildable platforms gimmick? I'd rather not get that again after Steve. So really it's hard to pinpoint a universe where I'd be hyped for a Fortnite character getting in.

Oh and if all of this wasn't bad enough, I heard a ton of Fortnite songs while making the music post and they aren't anything special since they're mainly just lobby music. So yeah, hard pass from me.

-----

Impa chance prediction: 29.42%

Nominations:
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get a deluxe enhancement) x10

 

[amageish]

Now THIS is Epic... Games Launcher

Chance: 15%. The impact and power of Fortnite right now is... hard to understate, honestly. This is a game that regularly collabs with both Marvel and DC, cameos in movies, and has movies cameo in it (including weirdly important Star Wars plot points). No, it didn't invent battle royales, nor was it the initial force to mainstream them, nor is it the biggest battle royale game in Asia (I believe that is Knives Out, which is not to be confused with the excellent whodunit film); however, it is the one that makes it so my Mom knows what a battle royale game is - and that's a barometer of mainstream if I've ever heard of one. It's popular. It's big. It's hard to deny the relevance of and, while it's relatively new, it's still a game that clearly will end up in history books in some form, even if it's just "That period of a few years in the late 2010s where people really liked battle royales."

Problem is the usual (and obvious) problem. There are just a lot of characters eligible for Smash Bros? Fortnite is humongous, but size doesn't always matter for Smash Bros selection. It's possible Fortnite just gets passed up...

Epic and Nintendo also don't seem to have a particularly closer relationship then any other company with a game on Nintendo platforms... There was a datamine that made people expect Splatoon content shortly after its launch on Switch and Kirby briefly appeared in a trailer, but neither of those have led to any sort of Nintendo collab or special treatment or... Much of anything, really... Fortnite's big enough so that doesn't necessarily matter, but, like, there are a lot of big third party companies not in Smash who regularly do Nintendo collabs and develop games with them and such... So, Epic would have to get chosen over all of those. There is also potential competition with League of Legends if Tencent was the bridge being used to put Fortnite in Smash, especially given how Tencent is now involved with producing a Pokemon MOBA...

The "No comment" comment is, well, a comment from an Epic Games staffer; however, it's also a comment being paraphrased by a Fortnite leaker and is the most generic question dodge of all time? So, like, I don't know how much can pragmatically be read from it, honestly. If he (or someone else at Epic) was asked about it again in an intended-for-public-consumption interview, then I'd be interested in seeing what they say...

Abstain on Want. Look, I've been thinking about this for over a week and am objectively aware it is plausible, but my brain still cannot comprehend it. I try to picture it and my brain goes "Error 404; File Not Found." I cannot conceive of this, much less develop an opinion on it. My only request is, if it happens, I hope they do blend the Fortnite style into Smash Bros. Steve's "we made him look exactly like he does in-game" gimmick is fine and got funnier to me over time, but I don't really want it to be repeated again...

Also, random thing: I cannot find Sakurai doing a column discussing Fortnite - or Battle Royales in general? Which kind of surprises me, given his tendency to comment on gaming trends and attitudes and things? I mean, 13 Sentinels: Aegis Rim got an entire column from him about its storytelling earlier this year... I don't think it pragmatically hurts Fortnite's odds at all, but it does leave me confused!

Predictions: 35% for Impa
Nominations: Monika Mii Costume x 10

 

[Mr. MR]

Thanos from Fortnite

Chance: 6%
Fortnite is one of those games that copied the formula of another game and added more mechanics and captured a younger audience with a friendlier art style— a trend that seems to be a thing now. While not the first battle-royal it did help to popularize it and possibly became the face of it—which are points in its favor. Out of all the battle-royals out currently, Fortnite IMO seems to be the most likely to be represented in Smash. However, I don't think Fortnite is seasoned enough or weathered enough to fall outside of being called a fad despite its 3 years. Like a sailor's desperate attempts to bail their sinking ship out of mediocrity, Fortnite so far seems to be relying on streamers and crossovers and big events to keep its strong numbers—from which I heard is slowly bogging down their game. While on the other hand (also from what I hear) PUBG is getting better at performance and audience reach (with their mobile app), capturing the huge markets of Russia, China, and India. Fortnite might still be on top but it's competition is catching up and if Fornite ever stops its rampant marketing their hypetrain will probably derail.

I don't like basing opinions on leaks but the infamous Zoom call probably happened. However, I don't think this means we will get a playable Jonesy. This can mean anything from Spirits to Mii Costumes to a playable Fortnite rep to a Nintendo crossover in Fortnite itself. I think the most unlikely of these all is a playable Fortnite rep. Fortnite may be popular but if Steve is anything to judge by, it still has a long way to go. Speaking of Steve, Jonesy also comes with a building mechanic and considering how hard Steve's mechanic was to implement, Sakurai would need a really good reason to go through the same development tribulation again. If Jonesy was planned for this pass then most likely both Steve's and his mechanics would be developed at the same time. But that only helps a little and not enough IMO to justify doing it. Most likely, Fortnite will be Mii Costumed followed by Nintendo crossing over into the Fortnite-verse (considering how many crossovers Fortnite has under its belt). Maybe in a few more years I can see this happening but I think it needs a foot in the Smash door before it has a good chance.

Want: 4%
It would be a shame to get an Epic rep before a Valve rep but at the same time it's almost understandable. Valve has it's own corner of the market and doesn't really care about anything outside of it. Epic on the other hand is trying to encroach on Valve's turf while also trying to be multi platformed and so is much more amiable to Nintendo in general. Perhaps in a world where Valve was trying, we would be getting a playable TF2 character but alas that is not the case. But I really wish it was.

If Jonesy did get in, I would be disappointed but I would probably get over it quickly. I don't think a Jonesy moveset would be that uninteresting and that's probably the reason why it's not a flat 0. It's not a character that makes Smash a worse game (and there's a case to make that Smash would be better with him) but there are many video game characters who deserve it more. Currently as it stands, I feel like a playable Jonesy is the equivalent of cutting the line and getting away with it because of fame.

Noms: Mii Costume: 2B x10
Predict Impa: 19.654%

 

[Ridrool64]

Do not. Cease. No. ... STOP IT!!!!!

Chance: 30%. This is perhaps the most recent property I will give anything resembling a good chance score. On one hand, it's super young compared to most third parties we've gotten, which are at least two decades old. The only one that isn't is Bayonetta, which got in under entirely different circumstances to this series. And yet... I can't count it out fully. This game is a cultural phenomenon still going on pretty strong for over three years, in an era where everything that isn't the new thing becomes an old hat. It has Disney crossovers, for pete's sake! It's nothing short of a massive hit, and it would easily make Nintendo's radar. But, like what many thought of Monster Hunter post Byleth, it's kind of hard to argue for Jonesy right after Steve, who did the whole crafting thing already. Couple that with how much more requested a Team Fortress 2 rep is when it comes to popular shooter characters, and somebody from Fortnite doesn't seem very likely.

Fortunately the biggest competitor for a Battle Royale rep, Bomberman, is a Mii Costume. Or unfortunately, rather.

Want: 50%. Honestly, Jonesy and other Fortnite characters just feel like the new Steve. A character the younger generation of gaming would be massively hyped for, even if the older generation would not be as enthused. I will not lie; I've seen the light on TF2 and would much rather get a rep from that first than this. In fact I'd take Overwatch next. But Fortnite will be hard to argue against in 3 ~ 5 years, assuming it maintains its level of popularity that long. And we get a new Smash, or somehow more DLC for Ultimate (but that's not only unrealistic, but also not worth DLC costing more than the game itself) in that time. And, I don't really hate the idea of it getting in.

Red x 10. Innersloth rep will come after Red is on the schedule. Impa will probably do much better than Zelda, but not that much better. 17.25%.

 

[3DSNinja]

Why, just. .why?
Chance: Abstain. I'm too biased against this to give it a fair rating.
Want: 0%: I. . I would hate this so much. For one, I'd prefer a Gears of War fighter if we got a Epic Games fighter. I also just would hate that a game that came out so recently and isn't a long running franchise got a DLC fighter, especially since it's Fortnite, a game I especially despise for the toxic fanbase. Speaking of, the fanbase would be very obnoxious to deal with. And finally. .What moveset could they bring? It'd just be Steve but with guns! Why should I be interested? If I wanted a building moveset, Steve was enough! And I don't need Fortnite in smash, especially since they have nothing to add! The stage would be dull, there's absolute garbage in terms of the OST, and the character would be the lamest character added, even moreso then ****in Corrin! Just. . .no.
Nominations: Hajimeme Hinata x10

 

[fogbadge]

Why, just. .why?
Chance: Abstain. I'm too biased against this to give it a fair rating.
Want: 0%: I. . I would hate this so much. For one, I'd prefer a Gears of War fighter if we got a Epic Games fighter. I also just would hate that a game that came out so recently and isn't a long running franchise got a DLC fighter, especially since it's Fortnite, a game I especially despise for the toxic fanbase. Speaking of, the fanbase would be very obnoxious to deal with. And finally. .What moveset could they bring? It'd just be Steve but with guns! Why should I be interested? If I wanted a building moveset, Steve was enough! And I don't need Fortnite in smash, especially since they have nothing to add! The stage would be dull, there's absolute garbage in terms of the OST, and the character would be the lamest character added, even moreso then ****in Corrin! Just. . .no.
Nominations: Hajimeme Hinata x10

for some reason i like your attitude

 

[ahemtoday]

Fortnite Character

Chance: 10%

I'm not sure this is as likely as people think it is. I don't think Steve means we're automatically going to be getting characters from massive popular games from now on. If anything, I think it would mean the opposite - the licenses for both Minecraft and Fortnite must be pretty expensive, I'd have to imagine.

And in any case, Fortnite is way more recent as a series than any other third-party we've gotten. The latest those get is the late 2000s with Bayonetta and Minecraft. While we did get some stuff from the late 2010s, all of it is from series that originate way before then. I don't know if including it as a fighter really fits with their MO here.

Want: 10%

I think people who treat this like it'd be the worst thing that could ever possibly happen are... majorly overblowing it. Like Steve, a Fortnite character would be majorly exciting to an entire generation of young gamers. I'm not really in touch with what the kids are into these days, but I have to imagine there's not that many characters on the roster that would really connect to them.

That said, I don't have a whole lot of personal connection to Fortnite, and it would also just feel... particularly strange to have in Smash. I also feel a lot of their moveset would be done better by other characters - Steve has the building, and any number of FPS characters could use a variety of guns. Still, it'd be disingenuous to say Jonesy - or whoever - would play exactly the same as any of those characters.

Then again, they could have the Default Dance as a taunt. I don't find Default Dancing funny in and of itself like a lot of pyorple seem to, but if you add a healthy spoonful of being completely serious to that sort of thing - like actually being an officially-made part of an official Smash character's moveset? Suddently, I find it hilarious.

Put 5 of my noms toward Qbby.
Impa prediction: 26.75%
Under which circumstances can you do 10 noms, again? Is it when you win the prediction? What constitutes winning the prediction?

 

[Sari]

Under which circumstances can you do 10 noms, again? Is it when you win the prediction? What constitutes winning the prediction?

You can do 10 noms if you write down at least 10 sentences for your chance/want. You have more than that so you can do 10 noms for today.

You win prediction noms if your prediction is the closest to what the actual final chance score average is for a character.

 

[ahemtoday]

Okay, cool. Uh... put my other five noms toward Maxwell.

And prediction noms are also five extra, right?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Can we move on? It's been 2 days and we waited like 16 hours between 2 posts. I've already written up my Impa post and I'm particularly fired up on working on the Alex Mason post

 

[MintPepsi]

Fortnite Character

Chance: 51%
There is no doubt in my mind that Nintendo has at least considered Fortnite for representation in Smash. We all know how massive the game is but that's not the only reason as to why I believe a Fortnite fighter to be fairly likely. The game has had a few Switch bundles and even recently an actual special edition Switch.

Spoiler: Fortnite Special Edition Switch

Not just that but at one point, around half of all Switch users had Fortnite downloaded on their console. https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2...half_of_all_nintendo_switch_systems_worldwide
Fortnite is massive worldwide, Nintendo has collaborated with Epic Games before on stuff like the Fortnite Special Edition Switch, and the game is very popular on Nintendo's current platform. I see no reason why Nintendo wouldn't at least consider the idea of a Fortnite fighter and being honest, I don't see many reasons why Nintendo would decide against one. I think Fortnite representation has a solid 85% chance of happening but I'm 50/50 on an actual fighter like Jonesy getting in. I'm leaning slightly more towards a fighter being likely which is why I rate a Fortnite fighter a 51%.

Want: 75%
I am not going to lie, I enjoy Fortnite. Especially when playing with friends. It's not like the best game on the planet or anything but it's fun. I think Jonesy has amazing moveset potential. We've never really had a shooter character in Smash before and while Jonesy wouldn't be my first pick for one (that honor goes to Doomguy), I'd still really enjoy his inclusion. I'd also love to see what they would do with the stage. An interesting idea I saw was that the stage starts out about as big as Great Cave Offensive but slowly shrinks over time. He'd also bring some good music. I'll post a few examples.

Spoiler: Fortnite music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGBuuhzjt1w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkZZ6BmZXoY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p9oyDS0UHw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJixZ-WmEFE

Overall, I just think Fortnite in Smash would be neat.


I put all my noms towards Monokuma

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Can we move on? It's been 2 days and we waited like 16 hours between 2 posts. I've already written up my Impa post and I'm particularly fired up on working on the Alex Mason post

Yeah I'm inclined to agree. Why have we not moved on yet? Everyone who would have made their post have already made it.

 

[fogbadge]

Yeah I'm inclined to agree. Why have we not moved on yet? Everyone who would have made their post have already made it.

perhaps the people who run this thread have got other things to do that take priority?

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstaining from Fortnite.

TCT~Phantom sorry for the late response, yeah I'll help

Noms: LoL rep x5

 

[DaUsername]

Fartnite
Chance: 50%
If we rated this two months ago, I would have gladly given this a 0%.
Then Steve happened.
Minecraft and Fortnite have a lot in common, both games have made a lot of money, children live them, ...building, and so on. It definitely seems like something the executives would shove into this game. If anything, I'm probably underrating this.
Want: 0%
What a surprise, the guy who doesn't like Steve doesn't want Fortnite Guy either. But really, when the best reason for a character's inclusion is "money", I don't think they're a good fit. I just want actual characters instead of walking commercials.

Impa prediction: 36%
Noms: Carl Johnson x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Impa (Age of Calamity).

Predict Alex Mason from Call of Duty.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Age of Calamity mood:

Spoiler: Age of Calamity Music

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Chance: 1% So, this is probably an unpopular viewpoint and I very much see why she's seen aa incredibly likely, she's in a new upcoming game and can be seen as a promotional pick and better yet, it's an identical role as the game that got her popular in the first place, meaning she may never get a better chance than now. However, this isn't perfect as for 1: Sakurai seems very hesitant with adding non Triforce wielders for some reason and 2: Spin offs never end up meaning anything. We could have gotten a Fire Emblem Heroes character or costumes, but we didn't. We could have gotten any spinoff material for Pokemon, but we didn't. While this doesn't mean it's absolutely impossible, it does show a reluctance for whatever reason. Well, maybe this could be an exception, right? I doubt it, remember the bonus costume that's used as a selling point? That was a set of Guardian Armour from BotW. Why would that be used as the bonus selling point if it'd be perfect to release alongside a Zelda character? To me, this is the final nail in the coffin.

Want: 5% I don't hate Impa but I really do not care for her. Her appeal was mostly because of the desire for another Zelda character and I do agree with that, I just think other choices would be much better, be it the iconic Skull Kid, my favourite Zelda villain alongside Majora's Mask being an absolutely godlike game, Ghirahim, a close second due to him possibly being the most charismatic character in the franchise with his crazy speech patterns and mannerisms, Tingle, who's pretty neat and gets a laughable amount of petty hatred and more. It's no surprise that Impa'd be a significantly more boring character in my eyes here, especially as I don't have any experience with the game that made her popular in the first place and am uninterested in it's sequel due to the technical issues being too glaring to ignore, though to be fair they could and really should fix up AoC ASAP.

Velvet Crowe x10

 

[Megadoomer]

Impa (Age of Calamity)

Chance: 45%

Maybe I'm a bit too hesitant when it comes to predicting characters (aside from Ryu Hayabusa, I don't think any of my chance ratings have gone above 70%), but while I think that Impa seems pretty likely (she's one of the four characters that I'm predicting to be a part of the second Fighters Pass), I'm not sure if they'll necessarily go with this version of Impa - I don't think Smash Ultimate has referenced the original Hyrule Warriors yet, and while this seems to be a different case (this HW game is tying into a pre-existing game as opposed to telling an original story), they could use the Ocarina of Time or Skyward Sword version instead.

However, it seems absolutely bizarre that Zelda hasn't gotten a unique newcomer on the roster in two decades, and with next year being Zelda's 35 anniversary, it seems like as good of a time as any to add one. Impa's Age of Calamity incarnation seems to be fairly popular, and she has a seemingly major role in Age of Calamity (at the very least, she's the second playable character that you get, even before Zelda herself), which could help to make her stand out among the Zelda cast.

Want: 70%

While I feel like Zelda is loooooong overdue for a new character, there are other options that I'd prefer, like Midna or Skull Kid. Since they're assist trophies, they seem to be out of the running. If we got another Nintendo character, I'd like to see Bandanna Waddle Dee or Dixie Kong a little more, since they're core members of their respective casts who are inexplicably missing, but I'd still be excited if Impa winds up being added to Ultimate.