Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ridrool64]

Roy when he no longer has a monopoly on being a red haired swordsman:

Chance: I will go with a 40%. I believe in this case where there's smoke, there may or may not be fire, but even without the leak Adol has a genuine case to be made for Super Smash Bros. Like others have said, this guy is quite a bit like the Terry of RPGs when it comes to Smash speculation. Not the most famous guy out there, nor a blockbuster legend, but somebody who commands respect for anybody fond of the Action RPG genre or arguably even some Action-Adventure games like Zelda... well, his company, that is. But Ys seems to be one of the most prominent games outside of Trails. I'm not very well versed in Falcom stuff, so I'm not sure if he has a moveset that could catch Sakurai's eye, but in this case I feel like giving Falcom a seat at gaming's hall of fame is not unwarranted regardless.

That being said, this guy doesn't strike me as anything immune to a Mii Swordfighter costume or a Spirit Event. Granted, I won't hold it against him because I probably would have said that about Terry before the SNK leak, but like any other third party death's door could be coming for him. Even the leak that implicates him is not specific about the Falcom representative to be included, and it may be other characters from other series. Still, I would not sleep on him. He's actually a contender for my predictions, mostly scuffling characters like Ryu Hayabusa or Professor Layton as a new third party from Japan.

Want: I will have to abstain here. I simply have never touched anything related to Falcom. I know, I know, a gaming gaff for somebody a fair bit into RPG's like me, but I just got into stuff like Grand Theft Auto and Animal Crossing this year. Gimme a break, I'm broadening my horizons bit by bit.

Frisk and CJ x 5. Red will be picked back up once he's back in the top 7. PMD content seems pretty unlikely as they'd have likely done something for it by now.

 

[Sari]

Adol

Chance: 30%
Here's a really cool and big post that shows how long the history of Falcom goes.

Falcom is a company with a long history in the ARPG genre and PC games as a whole. They had some big hits in the 80's/90's and even now are still doing good as a company. While their history with Nintendo isn't the greatest (one or two Famicom/Super Famicom games amidst their large PC/Playstation library), the connection is at least present and has been growing with each year thanks to increasing Switch ports. With Ys and the Trails series being super popular in Japan, I think Falcom is definitely on Nintendo's radar. Others have already mentioned this but I'm getting SNK/Terry vibes in regards to Falcom/Adol. Granted we could just get a Mii Costume or spirit event but a character like Adol is also possible. Only downside to Adol is that while he is probably the most likely Falcom character, there is a chance he'd have to compete with Estelle Bright or Rean Schwarzer.

Want: 80%
I played a bit of the first Ys game but haven't really gotten into it yet. Although my experience with the series isn't too big, I'd be fine with Adol getting in. His games do look fun once you get into them. And there's also the fact that they'd be representing Falcom as a whole who has made a ton of great games aside from Ys. The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky is another fun Falcom game I've played a bit of, while Gurumin: A Monstrous Adventure is one of the most underrated games out there that everyone should play (if it were up to personal preference then Parin would be my Falcom choice). A character representing a long running company while possibly also bringing in content from other Falcom games? Sign me up.

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Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Content chance prediction: 2.01%

Nominations:
Concept: Fortnite Character x5
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get a deluxe enhancement) x5

 

[Blankiturayman]

Finally got the time to write here. Here goes.
ADOL
Chance: 30%
Long ago, in the early 80s, a small game company "Falcom" was formed. They pioneered ARPGs with their game "Dragon Slayer", but this didn't last that long as they soon moved into another one of their series that gets new games to this day and age: Ys. This series alongside their "Legend of Heroes" series, now mainly going by the "Trails" series, are Falcom's flagships at the moment. For now, we're going into Ys, who's titular character is none other than Adol Christin.

Given the scope and history of the series, I could easily see Nintendo go for it, with only priorities standing in the way. While it might not be as popular over in the west, Falcom makes its ground mostly around the Asia area, especially because for a long time they were a big developer for PC. They've branched out every now and then, and now mainly develop for console but still port to PC if given the chance with help from other publishers. Falcom has the Nintendo connection pretty good too, as they've published their games on their consoles many times, still doing so with the Switch. A plethora of Ys games are available there, and recently, they've even started to port over "Trails" games.

Now there's the thing on whether Adol would be Falcom's choice or not when put alongside fellow RPG characters Estelle and Rean from Trails in the Sky and Trails of Cold Steel respectively. The Trails series has its own pedigree, and as of recent, it's become Falcom's more popular and promoted one as well. Nonetheless, Ys doesn't stay behind, and with its long-lasting legacy plus being an important part of the ARPG genre, I'd say Adol has the slight edge over these two. And this is coming from someone who'd prefer Estelle, even. At least that's just how I see it. If you asked me, I'd say it goes Adol -> Estelle -> Rean in terms of likeliest to least, but any three of them would make sense. Falcom would also be easy to deal with given their size. This same thing though could make them liable for a Spirit Event/Mii Costume, but hey, if that's the case, I'd get it.

Recently, there's been a "leak" for Falcom pertaining Smash, but personally I do not think much of it. I think Adol or another Falcom character could very well have made it regardless of it. I think I'd be more surprised if we get the Crossbell Trails games (Zero and Ao) in english as mentioned in it, because that'd be the first time they're officially localized.

Want: 100%
Well as I mentioned in my chance rating, even if I prefer Estelle, I'd be delighted to have anyone from Falcom. Ys especially is a great series, and even the older games (Ys I and II) are really fun. The awesome music goes without saying, and I really hope Falcom pulls a SNK if they happen to be chosen, regardless of whether if it's Adol or another character having music from all the series would be great. Though I understand if that would be too much. If there's one track I really hope makes the cut, it'd be this one.

Despite his appareance, Adol could be a great fighter. He's got lots of swords to use, even including elemental ones, magic spells (though mostly from artifacts; he's not an innate mage), you name it. What I'd love to see the most incorporated in one way or another is his "Bump System" as they call it present in the earlier Ys games, where Adol to attack an enemy, just straight up runs into it and nothing else. What I imagine they can do with it is to have it incorporated into his run.

Well, that was fun to write. I think I'd have done this much even if I didn't nominate him.

Nominations:
Worms x10
Estelle Bright x10
I recall having 10 or so extra nominations, but I'm not entirely sure. Just putting 5 more for each.

PMD content prediction: Little lost here. I'll say 8%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Guys and Adol

45% Chance

Now, I wanted to make sure I was well informed for this one, I did my research. When I was not looking into the election, I was listening to the Ys Soundtrack, looking up videos, and reading posts on Adol. And right now, I feel pretty good about our guy here.

Lets start with with Falcom's legacy. Falcom is one of those old school Japanese companies that could easily get representation. Dragon Slayer was a hugely influential game back in the day, and the legacy of Falcom's games continues to this day. While Falcom has strong PC roots, it has plenty of Nintendo history. In particular, modern Falcom is quite friendly with Nintendo.

So we got the legacy down, what about competition? Well, there's Estelle and Rean. I think Ys has the slight edge due to its legacy tho. Estelle and Rean to me both make sense, Ys to me strikes harder to to how old the series is and how even today it is still going strong. I think that if Nintendo chose a Falcom rep, legacy would be a huge factor and that helps Ys.

Finally, the leak. Look, I am not the biggest sucker for leaks, but leaks that have some solid ground I will look at with interest. I see value in the Crash Five Year Plan, Vergeben, and now this. If the other few things get called right, I will bump this higher. For now, I am watching this with great interest.

One last thing, I am getting major Terry vibes. A character that has far stronger Japanese roots that is not a big name in smash speculation, but has a solid case for themselves. The pieces are not all the same, but it rhymes to me.

100% Want

I did not think I would do this, I have not even played Ys. But the games look fun as heck. The gameplay shows me a character I can vibe with. But the biggest factor is the music. Holy heck, this is good stuff. I would gladly love to hear a ton of Ys songs in Smash, they are bangers. Add in a character that seems hyper aggressive and you have someone I would genuinely want. A few of the Ys games are on my backburner now.

Right now, my pass is still Rex Crash Ryu Hayabusa, but Adol can easily be my fourth in terms of what I see happening.

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain becuase im not gonna have time to do this one

Non Steve/Chief rep x5

 

[Inue Houji]

Adol Christin
Now, I was one of the two main nominators for this one, but I'm suffering from a lack of motivation these days, so I'm just gonna leave a quick rating.

Chance: 15%
Not much I can say outside of what's already been said. He has legacy, relevance and good company relations, but lacking somewhat in popularity.

Want: 100%
While I've only played Ys VIII, it revitalized my love for games while in a slump. I'm planning to play the other games, and have already bought them on Steam, but my ever growing backlog keeps me busy(and procrastination, lots and lots of procrastination).

PMD content prediction: 1%
While I love the series, I'm not hopeful.

Nominations
Beat x5

 

[Deleted member]

Adol

Chance: 25%
Not-so-sleeper sleeper pick. Has a bit of competition from within Falcom, but is generally agreed to be the frontrunner from the company. If we were just rating the chance of a Falcom character this would be closer to 30%, but for just Adol it's lower. Falcom could get a rep considering its history, but the main thing that puts Adol this high for me is the leak. It could be fake or just a Mii/Spirit event though, so I'll leave my rating at a solid 25%.

Want: Abstain
Never played a Ys or Trails game (even though I definitely should). Just don't know where to start.

 

[SharkLord]

Adol

Chance: 25%
Not-so-sleeper sleeper pick. Has a bit of competition from within Falcom, but is generally agreed to be the frontrunner from the company. If we were just rating the chance of a Falcom character this would be closer to 30%, but for just Adol it's lower. Falcom could get a rep considering its history, but the main thing that puts Adol this high for me is the leak. It could be fake or just a Mii/Spirit event though, so I'll leave my rating at a solid 25%.

Want: Abstain
Never played a Ys or Trails (even though I definitely should). Just don't know where to start.

Ys is pretty easy to get into, since the games are generally self-contained adventures with some occasional callbacks to older games. Usually, the most you'll get is the Infinity +1 Sword from the previous game in the continuity (Which Adol then loses, because of course) or a brief mention of another continent. The only people who show up regularly are Adol and Dogi, and sometimes the Clan of Darkness. Some good starting points would be:

• Ys I & II Chronicles - The first game in the series, available together on Steam or separately on mobile. Relatively short, with the first only being about seven hours and the second around twice as much.
• Ys: The Oath in Felghana - Considered the best of the Ark-styled games, available on Steam. Should take around 10-20 hours, depending on how much of a completionist you are.
• Ys: Memories of Celceta - A modernized remake of Ys IV, available on the PS4 and Steam. Adol has amnesia in this game, so it should be a good introduction from a narrative standpoint. A good deal longer than the games listed above, being about twenty hours normally and twice that if you're a completionist.
• Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana - The most recent localized game, considered the best of the modern games and my personal introduction point. Available on the PS4, Switch, and Steam. The main storyline should take you about 37 hours, but if you're a completionist like me it'll take over 55.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content.

Predict Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020).

Today is the last day you can affect the top 7 so use your noms wisely.

Megadoomer

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Some songs to get into the Pokemon Mystery Dungeon mood:

Spoiler: Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Music

 

[Perkilator]

My nostalgia just kicked in

Chance: 1%
Sadly, since our only spin-off content from Pokémon is the Detective Pikachu Spirit, I can only see a Spirit Event for PMD DX. And even that’s generous, because it‘s been 8 months since DX’s release.

Want: 100%
Which is a shame, because I’ll gladly take a Spirit Event at this point. The Pokémon Mystery Dungeon series is one I have find memories of.

Non-Spirit content from yet-to-be released games: 10%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[fogbadge]

i may not have played mystery dungeon but i know my pokemon

chances: 0% pokemon spin offs have always been kept to a minimum in smash. in ultimate the only one with anything is detective pikachu, not even go has anything and TPC is still pushing that one. focus always seems to be of the pokemon themselves which is always gonna make things harder. also I'm fairly certain any pokemon stuff we'll get will most like be based on gen 8 or gen 1. so the way i see it we're unlikely to get anything based on a pokemon spin off except maybe go.

want: 0% my lack of playing the series makes me unable to want anything. dont know anything about locations or music so i cant want any of them. and any pokemon we get is gonna be either generic or based on a single anime one and the best you can hope for is an alt. same with mii costumes, more likely to be based on the pokemon than a single character from MD. even then weve only gotten one mii costume for pokemon so its not looking great. all in all, theres nothing it has that i could really want as i wouldnt be able to get excited for stages or music and any pokemon would be just a pokemon not a MD pokemon.

nominate chibi-robo x5 and qbby x5

 

[Sari]

Concept: Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Content

Chance: 0.1%
If we were going to get PMD content it probably would've been when the remake of Red MD launched earlier this year. A spirit event would've been the most likely scenario, but with Red MD nearly a year old I think the time for that has passed. I don't know whether it's because of copyrights or Sakurai having a grudge against the series, but we have never gotten any PMD content in Smash ever. Maybe that could change if a new game gets announced, but right now the series hasn't had a brand new entry in about 5 years so I don't see it having priority anytime soon. If we are getting more Pokemon content (whether it be a character, costume, or even more spirits) it's most likely going to be from Gen 8.

Want: 60%
It's crazy how from Brawl to Ultimate, we haven't gotten one shred of PMD content. My experience with the series isn't the largest out there as I've only played a bit of Red and Super, however from what I've played I'd really like for there to at least be some representation of the series in Smash. The games are really fun and have a great soundtrack as well. I also hear the story is really good which I partly saw in my time with Red MD (I really should get the remake so I can actually finish it). Granted I probably wouldn't want a full-on character since I'm sort of burnt out on Pokemon as a whole, but a spirit event and songs are fine with me.

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Unreleased game content prediction: 15.00%

Nominations:
Concept: Fortnite Character x4
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x6

I'm giving 4 noms to Fortnite instead of 5 so there isn't a tie with the Coco echo/alt concept.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Skitty being good at something besides making Wailmer babies

Chance: 0% Hate to say this but Pokemon never seems to get any love for the spinoffs for some reason, my guess being The Pokemon Company being super stingy on what is or isn't allowed as we know for a fact that they're very restrictive on stuff. Not to mention the absolute refusal to give it a Spirit event, this is even later than how long it took Astral Chain to get it's Spirit event and outside of Peridot, nobody talks about the remake any more. Sure, this doesn't affect chances much if at all, but public awareness has lowered which when compared to say, Three Houses, is really jarring.

Want: I've never played the games but I did watch Chuggaa's LP as my reason for not playing was never getting around to it, I saw what people ended up loving about the first game and I eagerly await future remakes as everyone ****ing knows that godlike Primal Dialga theme, Monster House theme is also pretty catchy and I'm surprised Sari didn't include it. Not to mention spinoff content would mean there's a possibility of Miror B's theme and that'd be a treat. I suppose a 30% rating's pretty fair then so I'll go with that

Miriam x10

 

[BowserKing]

Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content

Chance: 10%. It is somewhat surprising that Mystery Dungeon content is scarce in Smash Bros, but if we do get content, it would spirits for a spirit event. And FWI, games can have spirit events months or years after their release (Astral Chain, Cuphead and Resident Evil being examples), so it is not impossible for Mystery Dungeon content to get in.

Want: 75%. I would like to see content in the game. When it would be a playable fighter (like Gengar and Tyrannitar), some soundtracks and some spirits, Pokémon Mystery Dungeon has some potential to be in Smash.

Prediction: Content from unreleased Game (10%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[Lyncario]

Mystery Dungeon in Smash, in any way

Chances: 0.5%

With Mystery Dungeon DX being out for over 10 months at this point in time, I think that PMD is now out of the running to get stuff of any kind in SMahs, may it be a spirit event, a character, or even a dlc stage or music tracks outside of a challenger packs. I think of it this way especialy because of how Smash isn't kind to Pokemon spin-offs outside of arguably Stadium, and even then it's only stages if you count the Pokemon Stadium stages as some content from the Pokemon Stadium games, and then it's still has no spirits, no tracks, or anything else. And besides that, the only Pokemon content that doesn't originate from the mainline games is Greninja's, where he turns into Ash-Greninja. So yeah, it doesn't look good for any Pokemon spin-offs to get that much. However, an argument that can be made for PMD is that it sells well and has a very dedicated fanbase, especialy for the Explorer games. But it could have also had said content since Sm4sh, and yet, it doesn't, so even if the Eplorer games gets remade like Rescue Team, I doubt that it would get anything.

Want: 90%

Which is a big shame, because PMD is amazing, especialy the soundtrack, Fight to the Finish and Dark Matter 2 are just amazing tracks, and it would be amazing to have them in Smash. And a Temporal Tower stage would just be so amazing to have, especialy if there's cameos from Grovyle, Celebi, Dusknoir, and primal/Dark Dialga. Talking about him, Grovyle would just be extremly cool to have in Smash as a playable character. There's just so many things from PMD that would be so cool to have, and yet, there's none of it in Smash. I just love PMD a lot, it's an amazing series of games, and you can very easily argue them to be far better than mainline Pokemon due to how good the story is in all of them and how much emotions they gave you. Those games are just amazing, play them if you ever get the chance to, and remember, IGN satnds for ignorant.

Nominations

Cynthia x10

Predictions

Content frmo unreleased game: 8.9%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Never show a PmD fan the Metacritic scores
Chance: 0.1%
Pokemon spin-off games rarely get acknowledged in Smash at all. The detective Pikachu spirit and Pokemon Snap trophies in Melee is all that comes to mind. Things like Ranger, Colloseum/XD, Conquest have no references to be seen to my knowledge. Mystery Dungeon seems to be no different. I guess with the not-so-recent remake we could see some spirits since we did get detective Pikachu but the remake came out in March. It just feels way too late now. And we all know where TPC's priority would lie regarding Smash currently.

Chance: 35%
I have a friend that's obsessed with this series so I'd be happy for him. It really hinges on what this content would be though. I don't actually believe Mii costumes for Pokemon are happening so it would either have to be a Spirit event or a Challenger pack. Spirits would be cute but nothing more. A Challenger pack would certainly get a louder reaction from the community and I'd be fine with it but not crazy about it. I've personally only played the first two games and haven't finished either of them. Also, spin-off or not, Gen 8 or not, I'm just not that in the mood for a Pokemon newcomer right now.

Content from currently unreleased game: 16.18%
The Knight x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

This rating will make me mad.

0.1% Chance

Look, I like Pokemon Spinoffs, but the only real representation they have in Smash are the Stadium stages, and that is a very liberal interpretation, and the Detective Pikachu spirit rn. Pokemon spinoffs just don't usually get representation. It does not help that the most recent Pokemon spinoff, the Mystery Dungeon remake, did not get jack. I like the spinoffs, but right now, it does not seem to be in a good spot for getting any content. Maybe next game I guess.

100% Want

Look, I want music. Yall know I am a sucker for music, and the first two mystery dungeon games have a killer soundtrack. I would love to hear songs like Primal Dialga or Sky Tower in Smash. The only pokemon content more sorely missed is XD/Colosseum music. I think this would be awesome to have, simple as that.

Coco as Crash's echo/alt x 10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Remember: today's the last day before the top seven is locked!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Adol Christin pre-Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content

Impa (Age of Calamity) x200
Concept: Coco as Crash's Echo/Costume x200
Concept: Fortnite character x200
Alex Mason x190
[Rerate] Frisk x170
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x160
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x155
Miriam x155

150 - 101

Red (Angry Birds) x145
[Rerate] Maxwell x140
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x140
[Rerate] The Knight x135
Hajime Hinata x130
Cynthia (Pokémon) x125
D.Va x115
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x104

100 - 51

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x100
Don-chan x100
Boss: Ender Dragon x98
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Riptor x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Mii Costume: Monika x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Boss: Rayquaza x75
T-Rex Runner x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Giygas x70
Carl Johnson x70
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x70
Crazy Dave x65
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x60
[Rerate] Monokuma x60
Worms x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
John Marston x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Vectorman x55

50 - 25

Qbby x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Echo (Bowser) x30
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x30
Tetra x25
Ryza (Atelier) x25

Under 25

Yarn Yoshi x15
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5

Fortnite character dances past Alex Mason and ties with Impa and Coco as Crash's Echo/Costume for the victory royale. Miriam rejoins the top seven, battling Chibi-Robo for that last place.

Worms and Vectorman shoot past 50 noms.

Two challengers approach, both with 10 noms. It's Slash Kamei and Estelle Bright!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about PMD.

Nominations: [Rerate] Chibi-Robo x5

 

[amageish]

Concept: Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Content (Please Tell Me We Actually Meant Content as Just Any Content and I Didn't Rate the Wrong Thing Again)

Chance: 3%. Nintendo has a mixed record of putting crossovers inside of its crossover. Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE had one spirit in the base game, but Hyrule Warriors, Pokemon Conquest and Pokemon Mystery Dungeon have gotten nothing... That said, while Sega had content in the base game, Spike Chunsoft (who owns Mystery Dungeon, which, yes, is its own IP) has nothing and has never had anything. So, it's not super surprising its been shafted, especially given Nintendo's tendency to overlook spin-off games when making spirit lists...

The question is... Would it be worth it to talk to Spike Chunsoft about a PMD spirit event at this stage? I... don't know if it would, honestly. It's been quite a while since the game came out - and, yeah, spirit events are often long after release. but its been a while at this point. They also could just get a Mystery Dungeon OC at that point? I'm not saying Shiren the Wanderer is a household name or anything, but he's got a game with an enhanced Switch port coming up in December and I can imagine Spike wanting people to know that this Mystery-Dungeon-looking game is a bonafide official Mystery Dungeon game... Seems like an easy spirit event with the legacy/Nintendo-connection to make sense to me?

The competition within Spike for spirit events + the general lack of interest in repping spin-offs (crossover spin-offs in particular - seriously, where is my Cadence of Hyrule spirit event Nintendo) keeps my prediction low, but, like, it's a spirit event. They've had some random ones at random times. Marvelous is represented in Smash solely through spirits for Daemon X Machina. There is a random singular Warframe spirit in Smash. It's entirely possible they'll randomly throw in a png of a Pikachu with a bandana one day...

Want: 95%. PMD is very fun and I would love to see it get some sort of acknowledgement in Smash. I'd generally like Nintendo to put in spin-off game music in general, honestly... Also could make a fun stage, though I imagine it's far too little too late at this point for that...

Noms: Monika Mii Costume x 5 and Fortnite Character x 5
Predictions: Broad concept is broad. 50%? I'm instantly thinking about if a character from before May 17th 2020 gets in but has moves taken from a new game... Feels like there are some loopholes here.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Content

Chance: 0.5% - I say this with a heavy heart, but I'm just being realistic. Pokemon spinoff representation in Smash has always been minimal to none. We have a Detective Pikachu spirit but that's it pretty much. Outside of that, it's solely main series games, and at this point in time we have a main series game only represented through spirits. And even that chance is waning thanks to us passing Crown Tundra without any Smash fanfare. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon itself is in a decent spot, the series does get semi-regular entries, including Rescue Team DX from earlier this year. Though it's been 10 months since that release so it's off the radar for promotional purposes (and Nintendo doesn't talk about it much either). So it could potentially get a spirit event of some kind, but that's the farthest it will probably go. TCPI keeps it to the main series games for Smash representation, and I doubt any PMD content would come with a potential Gen 8 rep either.

Want: 70% - I would definitely be down for more Pokemon spinoff representation, Pokemon is a wide-reaching franchise and only representing one pillar (even if it is the core) isn't a fair way to represent the series. Plus with Mystery Dungeon comes Grovyle/Sceptile, a popular request from the Smash 4 days who represents the currently unrepresented Gen 3 and would be a starter people can get behind! Plus Primal Dialga and its' song alone would be enought to convince me. Mystery Dungeon used to be a lot bigger than it is now, and I think it's definitely earned a spot on the roster, or at least a spirit event of some kind or some music (maybe Primal Dialga for Spear Pillar?) Granted, I've never played a Mystery Dungeon game myself, but there is plenty of unique content to pull from that I think it'd make for a refreshing take on a Pokemon rep.


Nominations:
Don-chan x5
4x Strategy Rep x5

 

[warpenguin55]

PMD Content
Chance: 0%
Sadly, Nintendo seems to be more than happy to let this spin-off die. Pokemon spin-offs used to be great but they just stopped doing them for some reason.


Want: Abstain
I love PMD, but I don't know exactly what I'd want in terms of content. Not sure if we need a playable character and I can't think of a good option for a stage or songs

Noms: Alex Mason x5

 

[fogbadge]

Yall know I am a sucker for music

i didnt

 

[Jomosensual]

Mystery Dungeon content

Chance 0 - Yeah I don't think this is going to happen. I'm really not sure that Nintendo, TPC, or Game Freak really care about repping the Mystery Dungeon series. It was seemingly dead until earlier this year anyways. I also don't really know how you definitively rep Mystery Dungeon without it being a playable character, which is absolutely not going to happen. Even then I'm not totally sure how you make that character feel different than any of the other pokemon gameplay wise. Stages and music would probably be pretty easily to deal with.

Want 30 - Eh, would rather not do this. I'm more interested in the Gen 8 Pokemon and some of the past over Pokemon like Darkai or Mimikyu. I also have other series I want to see get repped before we rep a Pokemon spinoff. Not much interest here overall but I guess I probably wouldn't outright reject it. Just not enough to seperate what a playable character from that series would look like vs. one from the regular Pokemon series for me to want it to happen.

Predictions
Unreleased Content - 78%

Noms
Non Steve/Chief rep x5
TRex Runner x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Dungeons and Pokemons

Chance: 1%

Yeah, I'm not seeing it folks. We just had a Mystery Dungeon remake earlier this year which was the perfect time for either a playable character or spirit event. But it didn't get anything. Like nothing at all. When you combine that with Pokemon spinoffs getting so little content in Smash, this concept isn't looking likely even when taking into account spirit events and the minute chance of something like DLC music. Unless if there is another Mystery Dungeon game coming out during Smash's DLC cycle, this concept's chances are probably dead in the water. And that is not even taking into account that Gen 8 will most certainly take priority when it comes to any new Pokemon content.

Want: 90%

I will take this opportunity to do a rant. Simply put, I'm not a fan of the treatment that Pokemon music got in this game. I understand some of the songs need to be remixed like the route songs, but I think most of the remixes are unnecessary and are actually worse than the original version. This is why I wish there were some Mystery Dungeon songs in the game because not only are there a lot of bangers, but hopefully that would mean that a lot of them won't get remixes. I've already stated many times I do not want another playable Pokemon, but as for a spirit event? I'm absolutely open to having a spirit event for one of the spinoff games. There has been a disappointingly low amount of spirit events recently so I'll take anything at this point. Honestly, I haven't played any Mystery Dungeon game, but I've heard great things about them so I would be happy for it to get anything at all. Again, even just a spirit event would be appreciated.

Prediction: 12%...i guess. I'm kind of confused on the wording of this concept.

Noms: Vectorman x10

 

[3DSNinja]

abstain:
nominations: Hajimeme Hinata x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

It's not Pokemon Ranger but it'll do

Chance: 5%
Unfortunately The Pokemon Company doesn't like to give any promotion to the Pokemon spin-offs. Probably so that players don't realize they could theoretically be getting awesome and unique experiences in the franchise. Nintendo toes the line for TPC, so as long as that unofficial rule is in place we're unlikely to see Pokemon spinoff content in Smash. There is the exception of the Detective Pikachu spirit, but that was getting a freaking Hollywood movie. It's kind of a high bar (on a side note, I wonder if the Mario movie will get any promotion?). The PMD remake was released this year, so it could get a promotional Spirit Event. Even if it's kinda late, timing usually makes no sense for Spirit Events (see Octopath Traveler), and it's definitely a game that could use the promotion. I mean, it still works out better than the notion that mainline Pokemon needs a promotional fighter to release in 2021. That's the ceiling though, I really don't see a fighter or a standalone stage or a Mii Costume or anything else it could theoretically get.

Want: 100%
I like Mystery Dungeon more than the main Pokemon games. I'd love any kind of representation, just to acknowledge that these games exist and mean a lot to many people and to the industry. They pretty much out roguelikes and Mystery Dungeon games on the map. And, if I'm being unrealistic, a fighter would be awesome, Grovyle or Darkrai would be better fighter choices than anything we're likely to get in the future (sobs). Even just a stage would be great, PMD has great locations and even greater music. I see no scenario where content from PMD is anything but good.

Noms: Scorpion x26
Shilling prediction: 73.92%

 

[Ridrool64]

Did you know that Mystery Dungeon is older than the Pokémon spinoff, and started as a Dragon Quest spinoff?

Chance: 1%. I feel like they would have done it by now if they really wanted to. There was the perfect time to do so this year, back when PMDeluxe came out, and yet it didn't happen. But the main reason why I am going so low is because, like others have said, Pokémon spinoffs never get the attention they deserve in Smash and likely never will. They aren't representative of what the main focus of the franchise is, and thus TPC/Nintendo would not likely allow it. Doesn't help that there may be rights issues with Spike Chunsoft at this point, either, and why bother with that nonsense when something you fully own is already part of the game?

Oh, right, and there's competition with Galar Pokémon. That's a very big problem.

Want: 60%. Not because I really really love PMD, but because it makes content from spinoffs that aren't Kirby Air Ride more viable. I mean, Mario has a decent amount for Kart, but where's the Mario Party stage? Why is there so little Mario sports music, in particular Mario Baseball? As for PMD itself, I would not be unappreciative of it at all. Mystery Dungeon joins the series, Pokémon gets its most famous spinoff (assuming GO doesn't count as it can connect to main entries; otherwise, second most) represented, everybody wins. Though I have a hard time seeing a PMD rep as anything more than "a Pokémon rep, but we say it's from a spinoff instead" right now. Maybe that's a me problem, but still.

Frisk x 10. This next rating is extremely nebulous and I dislike rating these things, but 57.30%.

[Also, I hate being the bearer of bad news, but this happened involving Kiryu of Yakuza fame. I would not necesarily ban him from ratings, but I'm not very confident in him being playable anymore.]

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So Nagoshi doesn't want Kiryu in fighting games because he doesn't want him to beat up women

Toshihiro Nagoshi Interview - Involved with the Hollywood live action Yakuza movie, Kiryu in a fighting game, more..

Hello Era, I had the opportunity to interview Nagoshi-san a few days ago (the picture is from the internet, not from myself), and i though some of his answers were really interesting, so i'll try to translate some of these for ERA. I'm really happy about this because i've been a Yakuza fan for...

www.resetera.com

Seems like a Kiryu deconfirmation here.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Seems like a Kiryu deconfirmation here.

Huh. No offense, but I never expected THAT to deconfirm a character...

 

[Perkilator]

Huh. No offense, but I never expected THAT to deconfirm a character...

And (with all due respect to the guy) the reasoning seems like horse****, considering that

A. Kiryu and Majima appear in Project X Zone, where the former can beat up women and get away with it
B. Smash Bros. has plenty of female fighters who can fend for themselves.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Content

Chance: 4%. I can concede that this percentage is a bit skewed, and should probably be even lower. However, technically we got a remake of the first entries in the Pokémon subseries this year, Rescue Team DX, and if they REALLY want to promote that, they could... although due to how many months ago that game released, the boost is too small to mean much. Spin-offs of Pokémon are already scarce in Smash, with Pokémon Snap and Detective Pikachu as the only true exceptions over the years. The rougelike side series is not even made by the main Pokémon teams or its subsidiaries, but by Spike Chunsoft; which coupled with current DLC patterns, makes it seem much likelier for them to add Danganronpa content if that company were to get something. Even if they chance upon the Mystery Dungeon series, the possibility of it being Pokémon may also be shaky, as it's not even the only series in Smash with an entry in the subgenre.

Want: 99%. Getting Mystery Dungeon content would be a highly beneficial venture, methinks. The subseries is one of my favorite adaptations of Pokémon, probably more than the main games in many cases. I understand the franchise may not have much of an advantage right now, but something like a few items or a dungeon stage touring various hazards and potentially battling hostile Pokémon ala Smash Run would make me quite pleased. A fighter would also be cool, but I think it may not work as well since the characters are all Pokémon, and with a few exceptions, aren't as remembered for their spin-off roles. Of course, this is assuming there aren't any cross-references with other Mystery Dungeon subseries, which may mean any of the franchises will do, but even that probably won't stop me from preferring content from the Pokémon one.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020).

Predict Concept: Coco as Crash's Echo/Costume.

Megadoomer

Again keep in mind that spirit events do not count for this as stated in the concept name.

 

[Perkilator]

Chance: 0%
Just to give some food for thought, here are the circumstances of characters we got before there game was released:

• : Binding Blade was delayed to 2002
• : Fates was already released in Japan
• : DQXIS is a port of a game that came in 2017
• : Byleth was chosen prior to their game’s launch, but it was still launched before their reveal

Want: 0%
Let games actually have time to sit in, even if only for a week or so, before we add them in Smash. This is what drove me mad with the Urshifu speculation; people were literally expecting it for the sake of relevance.

Coco as Crash’s Echo/costume: 50%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Unreleased Game Content

Chance: 10% - It's a distinct possibility, though there aren't a lot of unreleased games to choose from. The only one I could think of would be Age of Calamity, providing we get another slot before the month ends, but that's looking very slim. Everyone's banking on BoTW2 Zelda but I'm just not seeing it, especially since we still don't even know its' release date. Outside of that, there really aren't any major contenders for this category, considering we don't know the rest of Nintendo's lineup going into 2021. Considering the date, Pikmin 3 Deluxe would've been another good category but unless we get a character soon the promotional window has been missed. And at that point the game's been released (though Nintendo's been promoting it a ton so who knows). There's also spirit events or music/stages, but the latter has yet to come by itself and the former usually happens after the game in question is released.

Want: 0% - We don't need another Corrin or any other kind of shameless shill. Now, there are some exceptions. Impa from Age of Calamity I'd be willing to accept because she's a non-Triforce trio Zelda character with a ton of history and continued relevance. Plus she has a good amount of fan demand under her belt so I'd be happy about her inclusion. Louie would've been a fantastic choice to promote Pikmin 3 deluxe but the odds of a promotional character for a re-release are slim. Outside of that, there aren't any options I'd care for and I wouldn't want a character to get it just because they're new. Especially if their game hasn't even accomplished anything yet.

Spirits or stages are different, though. I'm perfectly fine with a spirit event, as more spirits are always fun! Though for a stage and music it really depends on the franchise,


Nominations:
Don-chan x5
4x Strategy Rep x5

Predictions:
Coco as Crash echo - 7.58% - I don't have a ton of confidence simply because of the wording. We have yet to see any DLC echoes though considering Alex (even though she's just a skin) may influence people's opinions of her likelihood.

 

[Jomosensual]

Unreleased content

Chance 100 - Yep, 100. This feels pretty easy for me too. Why? To start, every round of DLC has included one of these characters. 2 isn't a pattern, but it is something, especially when Sakurai himself explained that he likes saving more recent characters for last(there's an interview out there confirming this but I'm not digging that back up). So, what do we got that fits the bill right now? Monster Hunter, BOTW 2, Hollow Knight content that could be related to Silksong, and likely a whole ton of other games we don't know about. Remember, not all of these have to be playable characters. A DLC costume, music, or stage counts as well. Overall though, as I've been projecting for a while now, I just really think one of our slots, probably the final one again, will be used to rep a 2021 first party release. Once you factor in Mii Costumes I think this is basically a guarantee to happen at some point in time

Want 50 - Can't really give a score one way or the other here without knowing more details than that. What series? What character? What can they bring with them? All this is unanswerable at the moment. Therefore I can't lean one way or the other. BOTW 2 could have something fun though as long as we're not just doing yet another Link/Zelda/Ganon

Predictions:
Coco as Crash's echo - 0.51

Noms:
TRex Runner x10

 

[DanganZilla5]

Abstain. I'm kind of confused by the wording on this.

Prediction: Coco costume/echo - 35%

Noms: Vectorman x5

 

[amageish]

Content from an Upcoming/Unreleased Game as of May 17th 2020 (Minus Spirit Events)

Chance: 90%. So, uh, this is any content? We'd only need one Mii Costume, music track , or paid DLC spirit board spirit for it to happen? Then, uh, yeah. I think this is happening?

While it's easy to be wary of and concerned about about "promotional characters," this just would require... relevant characters? If we're getting a character who has a new game on the way, then it seems fairly likely they'd have something technically from their new game - a Mii Costume, a song, a spirit, an alt, maybe a couple attacks, or something. This isn't just BotW2 or Paper Mario or Monster Hunter either... This is a lot of characters, including ones with pretty large fanbases. Isaac? A lot of Isaac speculation has been based around some newly-filed trademarks, which would indicate a new game more then it would a Smash apperance. Why wouldn't they include content from the new game if there is one? Crash Bandicoot? Crash 4 is recent and it seems like they'd want to at least give it a passing mention, even if people don't have nostalgia for it. Heck, Adol? The rumour states that he'd have music from a variety of Falcolm games, which would probably include the recently-released-in-English Trials of Cold Steel 4. And that was me just picking three random franchises...

Now, there are characters I wouldn't expect to have content from post-May-17th games: characters like Geno from long-quiet franchises probably would have Smash be their coming back into the spotlight in of itself and wouldn't have new stuff; retro throwback like Ryu could stick to their retro content even if they have newer things; and some recent choices like Rex seem likely to stick with what they've already had released. But, like, we only need one character with one reference for this concept to come true - or, on top of all of this, we could have a new costume repping a new game...

I'm just not going quite 100% on the off-chance we get 4 retro throwbacks and/or one-off characters representing one particular game as the final four, but... even then, I'm possibly being too cautious.

Want: Abstain. Far too broad for me to have a hot take on. I guess I do generally prefer when franchises are repped across their franchise, so I'd rather even older IPs acknowledge their recent stuff in some form?

Noms: Monika Mii Costume x 10
Predictions: 15%.

 

[ahemtoday]

First time posting here! Hi, everyone!

Content from Unreleased Game as of May 17th

Chance: 4%

I don't really think this is all that likely. I'm not sure who this would even be. Impa, I guess, but I'm not particularly convinced she's all that likely. The only way this becomes likelier is if a new character has a game on the way that could get content, but even then I'm not convinced of the likeliness of that considering it hasn't happened with any of the characters we've gotten so far. I guess Joker's grappling hook, maybe, but that's such an unusual thing that I'm not convinced it'll happen again.

Want: 0%

Man, this is a weird first post to make. I'm typically pretty easy to please, but I don't like the habit of picking fighters before the game they're from is even out yet. It's just... weird. You're not going to see this a lot from me, but I have to give this 0% even if it does include less major content than playables.

I'll nominate Maxwell from Scribblenauts x5.
I think Coco as Crash's echo is going to get 25%.

 

[GoodGrief741]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 533: Concept: Coco as Crash's Echo/Costume
Day 534: Concept: Fortnite character
Day 535: Impa (Age of Calamity)
Day 536: Alex Mason (Call of Duty)
Day 537: Frisk (Undertale)
Day 538: Scorpion (Mortal Kombat)
Day 539: Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief/Chibi-Robo (Chibi-Robo!)

Impa couldn't hold on to the first place, as both the Coco concept and the Fortnite one easily overtook her. Scorpion got a last minute boost that put him right in sixth place, but since the last two spots were tied they just share a day instead. Which leaves us with a very odd double day.

The new top 7 consists of Miriam, Red, The Knight, Maxwell, Hajime Hinata, Cynthia, and D. Va.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content pre-Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020)

Miriam x160
Red (Angry Birds) x145
[Rerate] The Knight x145
[Rerate] Maxwell x140
Hajime Hinata x135
Cynthia (Pokémon) x135
D.Va x115

150 - 101

Don-chan x105
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x104

100 - 51

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x100
Boss: Ender Dragon x98
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Riptor x85
Mii Costume: Monika x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Boss: Rayquaza x80
T-Rex Runner x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x76
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Giygas x70
Carl Johnson x70
Crazy Dave x70
Vectorman x65
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x60
[Rerate] Monokuma x60
Worms x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
John Marston x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Qbby x40
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Echo (Bowser) x30
Tetra x25
Ryza (Atelier) x25

Under 25

Yarn Yoshi x15
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5

Don-chan drums up over 100 noms.