Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

That doesnt change anything, I dont like people using bad arguments, I do it myself but O try not too

yes but you only seem to be calling people out on bad arguments against shantae

 

[Shinuto]

Quote:



Shantae:

Chance: 0.05%
Want: 100%

Min Min definitely helped Shantae's chances, but I still consider her deconfirmed. Here's why. Essentially, Shantae's creator and copyright holder talks about how they would still love to see Shantae in Smash (big red flag for NDA reasons) and more importantly, talks about how they didn't even know about Shantae's spirit appearance. After we learned of the intense communicational processes behind DLC characters like with Banjo and Min Min, that's a pretty dead giveaway that Shantae is only going to stay a spirit. And also, Shantae still has a huge amount of indie competition, each with more than her, and since I'm of the firm beleif that there can only be one indie rep per game (or base game/dlc), Shantae's gonna be in the waiting room a while. A long while. Said competition includes Quote, who's an indie icon, Reimu, who's a Japanese icon that beat her out in Source Gaming's recent poll, Freddy, who's become a gaming icon overnight, Baldi, who's followed suit, Steve, who's from the best-selling game of all time, Travis, who's creator is personal friends with Sakurai, Cuphead, who got a Mii Outfit and ported song and is more popular, UNDERTALE/DELTARUNE reps, who holds Freddy's Iconicness (maybe even moreso than Freddy) combined with Travis' creator friendship and Cuphead's Mii Outfit but with a remix instead of a ported song, Madeline who was a GOTY nominee, and last but not least, Shovel Knight who was able to get an Assist Trophy in-game while Shantae only got a PNG, only to name a few? So yeah Shantae's odds don't look good for her now or in the future. Shantae's just way too obscure, especially for a western company, to be able to be called more likely than any of these characters, let alone every one of these characters. Shantae's obscurity is really what does her in, because even without her indie competition, I don't think Sakurai/Nintendo would look at Shantae and say "Her." when there could be more money made of a promotional 1st party or a popular AAA 3rd party. For these reasons, as controversial as it is to say for me, I think she's less likely than Goku, and having me call them that is an "accolade" that very few unfortunate characters can get.

And I hate it. Shantae's a fun character with a fun personality, something that Smash severely lacks (I mean we just got Byleth and Min Min for crying out loud) and amazing moveset potential. Also, her getting in would just be an amazing underdog story about a character going from nothing to greatness.

Noms:
FP2 is 3 First Parties and 3 Third Parties x5

Heres the thing though, Matt was specifically asked about Smash, what do you think he couldve said if he was under an NDA? Also Goku? What. Youre telling me the character Sakurai has literally said he will never put in Smash has a better chance, Im sorry youre being way too pessimistic dude.

 

[3D Dillon]

I'd give Shantae a 40% of making it since there recently and constantly have been characters that made it and you never expected them to be.

I'm abstaining Quote, BTW.

 

[Shinuto]

yes but you only seem to be calling people out on bad arguments against shantae

I know her and WF very well. What do you mean by this? Should i be breaking down bad arguments for every character i care about, F that. I pnly really get involved beyond browsing this thread when Shantae gets involved as shes my number one pick.

 

[Calamitas]

I'd give Shantae a 40% of making it since there recently and constantly have been characters that made it and you never expected them to be.

I'm abstaining Quote, BTW.

You're gonna need to write two proper sentences for your rating to be counted, fyi.

 

[fogbadge]

I know her and WF very well. What do you mean by this? Should i be breaking down bad arguments for every character i care about, F that. I pnly really get involved beyond browsing this thread when Shantae gets involved as shes my number one pick.

well it does look a tad hypocritical if you only defend one character to such an extent

 

[Shinuto]

well it does look a tad hypocritical if you only defend one character to such an extent

I mean, is it really? Im not giving false info on why I think sh has a chance.

 

[kevinthedot]

I find it really interesting how different the discussion between something like "Which Indie should get in?" compare to stuff like the recent "Which ARMS character should get in?" or past arguments over Microsoft Reps a la "Banjo vs Chief vs Minecraft".
For one, things seem a lot more polarizing in these larger scale discussions than the smaller scale ARMS one. Lots more people being so hard on one side that they outright dislike the others. Overall popularity and presence also seems to mean very different things in each. With Indies, there's a lot of talk over big one hit wonders like Undertale and Shovel Knight vs more consistent series presence a la Shantae and Reimu vs Quote whose mainly pushed for being the "first". But with ARMS the popularity argument really boiled down to just Springman as the face vs Min Min as the winner of the poll. And with Microsoft Banjo was the most fan demanded but least profitable franchise and he wound up with the win.
One comparison that I can't help but keep thinking of as well is how representation played more into discussions around ARMS while it's not really a factor discussed in Indie sphere. I mean, obviously ARMS has a much more diverse cast as far as race and ethnicity obviously. I guess Indies just really don't have much options as far as extra representation in Smash beyond Shantae as a dark skinned female and Undyne as a lesbian. Kinda an odd situation though considering how much more freedom to have varied characters indie games have.

 

[Shinuto]

Yeah its almost like when it comes to indies suddenly popularity matters most. What about Banjo?

 

[fogbadge]

I mean, is it really? Im not giving false info on why I think sh has a chance.

calling out peoples biases on only one character makes it look like you’re only doing it cause you’re biased

 

[SharkLord]

I find it really interesting how different the discussion between something like "Which Indie should get in?" compare to stuff like the recent "Which ARMS character should get in?" or past arguments over Microsoft Reps a la "Banjo vs Chief vs Minecraft".
For one, things seem a lot more polarizing in these larger scale discussions than the smaller scale ARMS one. Lots more people being so hard on one side that they outright dislike the others. Overall popularity and presence also seems to mean very different things in each. With Indies, there's a lot of talk over big one hit wonders like Undertale and Shovel Knight vs more consistent series presence a la Shantae and Reimu vs Quote whose mainly pushed for being the "first". But with ARMS the popularity argument really boiled down to just Springman as the face vs Min Min as the winner of the poll. And with Microsoft Banjo was the most fan demanded but least profitable franchise and he wound up with the win.
One comparison that I can't help but keep thinking of as well is how representation played more into discussions around ARMS while it's not really a factor discussed in Indie sphere. I mean, obviously ARMS has a much more diverse cast as far as race and ethnicity obviously. I guess Indies just really don't have much options as far as extra representation in Smash beyond Shantae as a dark skinned female and Undyne as a lesbian. Kinda an odd situation though considering how much more freedom to have varied characters indie games have.

I think it's because indies encapsulate a wide variety of games and characters, each with their own unique feel and concepts, and they have a fair bit of crossover with the Nintendo fandom, while ARMS was a small, new IP without many recognizable characters, and Microsoft's IP didn't have much overlap with Nintendo fans; the main candidates were indie hits like Steve? and Cuphead, their mascot Master Chief, and Banjo, who was honestly an honorary second-party character before Microsoft got their hands on him.
As for the diversity thing, I think it stemmed from the then-tense political climate, as well as the fact that we actually knew we were getting an ARMS rep. This led people who wanted more diversity to turn to the biggest shot they had at the moment. Also, the cast of ARMS is mostly humanoid, while indies tend to vary in terms of character design and species.

 

[fogbadge]

Banjo, who was honestly an honorary second-party character before Microsoft got their hands on him.

no he was co owned by Nintendo, if he was only honorary then so is Pikachu and the FE gang

 

[PeridotGX]

Shantal

Chance - 1%. Indies seem to be incapable of getting anything more than a Mii Costume. She's kinda popular in the Smash fanbase, but I don't know if that's enough to get in.

Not the King for a day

Chance: 1.5%. Like I said with Shantae, Sakurai seems to not want indies fully playable. He gets an extra .5% because of a legacy.

Double abstain for want. I don't really care about either, and there are other indies I would much prefer

Noms: Maxwell x5

 

[SharkLord]

no he was co owned by Nintendo, if he was only honorary then so is Pikachu and the FE gang

Fair point. What I mean was, he was the most popular Microsoft candidate because he used to be a part of Nintendo; As a result, he was the most popular request from the Nintendo-based Smash fandom.

 

[fogbadge]

Fair point. What I mean was, he was the most popular Microsoft candidate because he used to be a part of Nintendo; As a result, he was the most popular request from the Nintendo-based Smash fandom.

ah ok

 

[Shinuto]

calling out peoples biases on only one character makes it look like you’re only doing it cause you’re biased

Ooh i can see that, no I just dont have the time to come for anyone else, if Shantae gets in Smash everyone else is a bonus and i cant get mad or disssapointed with new characters anymore.

 

[fogbadge]

Ooh i can see that, no I just dont have the time to come for anyone else, if Shantae gets in Smash everyone else is a bonus and i cant get mad or disssapointed with new characters anymore.

alright then

 

[SargeAbernathy]

I'd give Shantae a nice cool 20%.

Quote? I'd give a 3% chance.

Wants? They both get 100%

 

[zferolie]

Alright guys, I know I overreacted to a negitive shantae rating yesterday, but I think we all should relax. Lets not just attack anyone who gives a negitive review to a character we like, and if one NEEDS to correct them, lets stay civil.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

I'd give Shantae a nice cool 20%.

Quote? I'd give a 3% chance.

Wants? They both get 100%

I'd recommend writing two full sentences for each chance and want rating if you want them to be counted.

 

[GoodGrief741]

What is with you people being like "Ugh how dare a company be passionate about getting their mascot in THE BIGGEST CROSSOVER SERIES IN GAMING, its not like Wayforward isnt full of diehard Nintendo fans or something. Jesus Christ get over it, you're making a mountain out of anthill.

Yeah, I would get the hate if it had some kind of negative repercussion, like if it led to the fanbase becoming obsessed with her inclusion in Smash or something, but fortunately that's not the case. Let fanboys fanboy, after all it's what got every character into Smash, right?

 

[NeonBurrito]

I haven't done one of these in a while but I've been lurking the past few days because of Min Min and whatnot and I like Quote so I'll jump in. Abstaining on Shantae; I tried playing through Pirate's Curse a while back and didn't find it to be very interesting.

Quote
Chance: 1%

I don't think he's very likely, mainly because I don't think any indie game character is very likely. If absolute modern day indie juggernauts like Undertale and Cuphead are just finding places in Smash via spirit events and Mii Costumes, then I don't think Cave Story has much of a shot either. I think it might have a small leg up on the competition because of its legacy, but even then it's such a minuscule leg up that I don't even think its worth much.

Want: 85%

I haven't been reading the past few pages of this thread super closely, but I see there's a lot of arguing over Cave Story's legacy, which I find to be kind of strange. Cave Story is undeniably one of the most important games in the indie game scene simply because it was the first modern indie game that was able to see success on a worldwide scale. It proved to the world that it was indeed possible for just a single person to make something successful from both a critical and a social standpoint. Cave Story has directly inspired a wide number of indie games, such as Undertale, Super Meat Boy, Terraria, Spelunky, Braid, FEZ, and VVVVVV and it being able to succeed in the first place has indirectly inspired the rest. Hell, Cave Story's existence in general is considered to be part of the reason why the Metroidvania genre still exists and is popular today. Remember, in a mid-00s world, the idea of any indie game being able to truly take the world by storm was unfathomable by most people, but Daisuke Amaya did just that.

Getting into Quote himself though, he's just a super fun character in general. With an incredibly wide array of tools at his disposal, it'd be hard to not create something fun with him. Use the Polar Star for standard attacks, create an ammo system with the Missile Launcher, launch fireballs with the Fireball, set bubble traps with the Bubbline, propel himself in the air with the Machine Gun, fight close range and summon King's ghost with King's Blade, etc. etc. etc. This isn't even mentioning the sorts of shenanigans you could make with his Booster Pack, whether it be as an Up-B akin to Pikachu's or some sort of float like Peach's, or with the game's experience system, which could power up your weapons the longer you charge them or the better you're doing in battle. Hell, give him a Curly Brace echo with a bit more of an emphasis on the Machine Gun and she'd fit in fantastically too.

Cave Story's soundtrack is also phenomenal, all also created by Daisuke Amaya, with great tracks all over the board. The game's iconic main theme, the boss theme, Egg Corridor, On To Grasstown, Sand Zone, both of the Labyrinth's themes, Vs. the Undead Core and Ballos, Running Hell, the credits theme, and Sky Fortress are all great, high energy songs that are just begging for high quality renditions. Again, all of these are composed by Daisuke Amaya, further just proving how "indie" Cave Story really is. Despite being such an influential game, it's all made by one guy. Doesn't get more independent than that.

Like I said before, I don't think Quote will ever be playable any time soon because Cave Story has fallen out of popularity hard compared to its peak in the mid-to-late-00s, the rights are all wishy washy with most of the rights being owned by a company that has been under fire recently over topics like racism, poor management, and disrespect towards other companies, and as a result, Quote and the Cave Story series itself have essentially turned into the complete opposite of what they originally were.

Regardless of all of that however, if there had to be any single indie game that was THE indie game, it'd without a doubt in my mind be Cave Story.

Any other indie inclusion in Smash Bros. just doesn't make any sense in comparison. Cave Story is undeniably an incredibly influential game and as such, I believe it deserves a spot in what is essentially the video game hall of fame.

 

[Calamitas]

Can we move on to the next day now? It has been over 12 hours since the last rating, and I'm pretty sure that everyone who is going to give a rating has already done so.

 

[3D Dillon]

Can we move on to the next day now? It has been over 12 hours since the last rating, and I'm pretty sure that everyone who is going to give a rating has already done so.

After some ratings that have stressed me out a bit, I agree.

 

[Sari]

Alright it's been more than two days so I'll end the day now. Definitely was not expecting the Shantae/Quote rating to be this active (+140 posts).

Day over.

Rate Saki Amamiya from Sin and Punishment as well as RAY from Custom Robo.

Predict Dixie Kong and Bandana Dee.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Sin and Punishment mood:

Spoiler: Sin and Punishment Music

Some songs to get into the Custom Robo mood:

Spoiler: Custom Robo Music

 

[Jomosensual]

Was in the middle of doing an early write up when the day changed. Sometimes it pays off to work ahead I guess.


Saki
Chance 0 - Unless I'm not reading this correctly it appears Sin and Punishment was never officially released in the west until the VC release. While the 2nd game in the series did get a full release I'm not sure there's a reason why Nintendo would want to push Saki or S&P right now. The games seemed well received but I dont think they actively want to push the series

Want 10 - Could be a cool character I guess. There's a lot more characters I'd rather see get in first from both Nintendo and 3rd parties though. Don't really know much about Sin and Punishment.



Ray MK
Chance 0 - Had to go look into it because I thought I heard something damming about Ray's chances recently and it appears that Nintendo dropped the Custom Robo trademark back in 2018. While now it seems that it doesnt matter, the last Custom Robo relase came in the 2000s. Feels like Nintendo is done with the series and of course, that means he's likely not coming to Smash. There's no real reason for them to add a first party character who isn't going to promote anything and isn't requested.

Want 10 - Pretty much the same deal as Saki. Character has potential but I don't really have much interest in seeing it happen. Never really touched Custom Robo so I dont know much about.


Predictions(expecting some very high scores on these two)
BWD - 75%
Dixie - 67%


Noms:
Riptor x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Quadra 0

I'm just going to mash the scores together here because they have identical situations. I'd say both of their cases are open and shut, but honestly, you never even needed to open it. It's actually a stays shut case. So here's what we got. RAY and Saki are both cut assist trophies(Saki was in both Brawl and SSB4, RAY only appearing in Brawl.) If the current assist trophies are deconfirmed, I'd argue that cut assist trophies are even more dead. Speaking of dead things, their franchises! RAY is from Custom Robo, which hasn't had a game since 2006. Saki's Sin & Punishment is slightly better off in this regard, but when your last game was in 2009, that's still nothing to brag about. But what about fan demand? Well, that's about as high as the sales of all their games in the last decade. So, not much. Overall, these 2 don't have much going for them as base roster picks, much less as DLC.


Predictions
BWD: 55%
Dixie Kong 50%

Noms: Alex Mason x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on Saki and RAY, but I can't say either of them are particularly likely. While Saki no longer has to worry about his spirit, he and his buddy RAY are still Mii Costumes. With only five slots left in the fighter's pass, I can't see either of them being a priority, and even if they promote Mii Costumes there are other characters in that category with much greater fan demand. There's also the general lack of relevance. Saki's game was Japan-exclusive and released in 2000, while Custom Robo's last game was in 2006. While fan demand can often help overcome relevance problems (as seen with K. Rool and Banjo), Saki and RAY simply don't have the enormous fan demand that the Rareware duo had.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Dixie Kong - 24.21%
Bandana Waddle Dee - 10.33%

 

[Lyncario]

Saki
Chance: 5%
There was soem rumors of a remale of Sin and Punishment that I heard, and so, Nintendo could want to shill it with Smash. That's literaly it. And even then, Saki is still unlikely.
Want: 40%
He looks cool. But yeah, I'm neutral on Saki.

Ray
Chance: 0%
He does not even have rumors of getting a remake, so yeah, it's pretty impossible for him.
Want: 20%
He and has a good moveset potential and that's it, I guess.

 

[kevinthedot]

Gonna agree with Quadra 0.

Like, this set just isn't worth anything honestly. I get there's probably still fans of them around that may have some want for them. I enjoyed Custom Robo Arena, but it's just not something that really matters anymore and there's other options that do this "custom fighter" thing way better, particularly the miis. And Saki is even worse off having really nothing that interesting to him. His appearance as an assist trophy alone is already surprising enough. I don't see how there'd be anywhere near enough demand for either of them and they both have no interest to me overall.

Predictions
BWD & Dixi Kong: 30%

 

[SharkLord]

Saki:
Chance-10%. I don't count someone out entirely, nor do I say anyone's a lock. That being said, they're from an obscure series and don't have much support in the Smash fanbase. I feel sorry for S&P fans...
Want-40%. He could be cool, I guess. Still, not much to sell me on him. Besides, most of my attention goes to some other characters.
Ray:
Chance-10%. Second verse, same as the first. Obscure game, lack of support, not much going for him. Probably not happening.
Want-40%. Ditto. He could be cool, but there's candidates I want way more. My condolences to Custom Robo fans, though. Must be really harsh...
Predictions:
Bandana Waddle Dee-65%, plus some more arguments on how deserving he really is.
Dixie Kong-75%
Nominate: Klonoa x5

 

[Speed Weed]

saki my balls

Chance: 3%
alright, let's list a buncha ****, shall we? dead series, mii costume, lots of competition within the spirit realm, yeah i don't see it. buut i am also going to refrain from giving him an actual 0 because 99% of characters have at the very least a smidge of a chance. but still, very unlikely.

Want: 100%
.....that said, i HATE that i have to give him a mere 3, because sin & punishment is a fantastic series and he'd be super cool in smash.

that one guy people use as a stand-in for miis of pretty much every mecha ever

Chance: 5%
i'd pretty much give him a copypaste of saki's chances, if only that he has a veeeeeeeery slight edge over saki because custom robo at the very least remained somewhat of an active series for some time, meanwhile sin & punishment had one game, died, had a sequel 10 years later and then died again.

Want: 95%
he'd be super ****ing rad too. i think he'd also be the first real mecha of sorts in smash, unless i'm forgetting someone. not a wacky robot dude like R.O.B, not a tron bonne type like bowser jr, not an android like mega man, no, just a straight-up normal-sized mecha in smash. and that sounds amazing

 

[Sari]

One letter off from my username

Chance: 0%
While his AT is MIA, he got Mii Gunner'd and spirited in the base game. I've said before that I think base game costumes/spirits still have a shot, but I don't see Saki being a priority when the last Sin & Punishment game was released way back in 2009. There are just way too many other popular and relevant characters to choose from when it comes to costume/spirit promotions.

-----

Everybody loves Ray MK

Chance: 0%
Series has been dead for more than a decade as the last game was before Brawl. With no new game in site, it's clear that the series has no future right now and we were lucky to get the Mii Costume in the base game. If this were for the base game I might give Ray a higher score, but for a paid DLC character that had only 1 of their 5 games released in Europe, no way this is happening.

-----

Abstaining on both of the want ratings since I have no experience with their series.

Dixie chance prediction: 30.00%
Bandana Dee chance prediction: 30.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[Perkilator]

Saki & Ray
Chance: 30%
I know I've harped on Assist Trophies in the past, but...that was for Assist Trophies in Ultimate. There is still hope for Assist Trophies before Ultimate who didn't appear in Ultimate.

Want: 30%
And as such, I'd be okay with these two, Not that I have any personal attachment to them, or anything.

Bandana Dee: 60%
Dixie Kong: 65%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[fogbadge]

hmm im gonna abstain on saki and only rate ray

chances: 0% i really dont see this happening. i feel that overall nintendo's more niche series are doomed to never be playable in smash and sadly custom robo very much fills that role. five games, only two made out of japan and only one made it to europe and that was back on the ds. sadly between series dormancy and lack of fan demand im not sure we'll ever see ray unless they decided to revive the series.

want: 70% i would not mind it at all. i very much enjoyed the sole custom robo game to make it over here (though i never finished it) and think what he can to would be brilliant to see in smash. however there are tiny robots of nintendo i want more.

nominate nate adams x5

 

[Speed Weed]

the trademark got dropped in 2018

alright, the rest of your points still stand and by no means do i think ray's got a good shot, but i just want to point out that apparently that trademark was not for the custom robo series as a whole

here's a post i found from a while back that explains the whole situation

Hello thread-goers, I hope you are all doing well.

We have been discussing the trademark and its meaning in the Ray-01/Custom Robo support thread in Ultimate's Newcomer Speculation section for the past week or so now. Through analysis, we have come to the conclusion that the lapsed Trademark is not the coffin's death nail that this news article claims it to be. Looking over the trademark, and the reddit thread related to it, we would ask that you please consider the following:

Spoiler: I've put the information in a spoiler for your thread-reading convenience

- In the United States, Custom Robo Battle Evolution, the game that launched on the Gamecube, was simply called Custom Robo. Henceforth in this post, it will be called Custom Robo (GC).

- The Trademark in question, established in November of 2003, came out in preparation for Custom Robo (GC), which launched in March 2004 (JP) and May 2004 (NA/Global). Meanwhile, the Franchise in question has existed since before this trademark existed!

- The Trademark in question concerns the technology used in the game, chiefly concerning the nature of the discs, and not the franchise as an Intellectual Property. It should be noted that Custom Robo (GC) is the only game of the franchise to appear on a disc-format, of which this trademark speaks solely about.

- Other examples of this include the technology used in Donkey Kong Country 3 (tech trademark of the game expired in 1991) and Punch-Out Arcade (The tech trademark expiring in 2005). Of note is that these series, and the characters within, are not dead and are maintained by Nintendo. These trademarks are solely about the tech of the game, not the game itself and of the characters within.

- Compare the Trademark in Question Trademark, and its talk about disc-tech, to the Zelda Trademark, which more closely talks of the notion of an intellectual property (as it covers the concept of game programs themselves)

In summary, the nature of the Custom Robo (GC) Trademark relates to the nature of the tech used within its disc. As Nintendo no longer operates using such discs after it made the 'Switch' back to cartirdges, there was no reason to maintain the trademark of said discs just as there was no reason to maintain the other two trademarks mentioned above. The series, while clearly dormant, still remains within Nintendo's hands. This article's inaccuracies does more harm to the Custom Robo franchise than needs doing.

 

[Ninjaed]

Abstain. I just don't get much joy from smash-related stuff anymore so I can't be bothered, sorry. Hope that'll change with a new fighter - or a better online, though that's a pipe dream.

Nominations: concept: more ATs as one new item x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Saki Mamamiya & Rei
0% chance for both
Not much to say for these two. Neither Sin of Punishment or Custom Robo have had received a game in atleast a decade or have been done anything with recently. They're just two of multiple niche IPs Nintendo released in the 2000's but have let them fade into obscurity since. That would definitely not make them suitable picks for DLC, despite probably being more popular with JP audiences since Saki used to be a popular request over there and a good chunk of Custom Robo games were JP exclusive. If the demand behind Isaac wasn't enough to make him playable then Saki and Ray especially have no hope.

Want: Abstaining on both. I have no experience with either of those two and I don't think I'll ever get the chance to. Only one CR released in Europe, the one that supported Nintendo wfc and I'm not gonna hunt down a game that's probably online focussed when the service is dead. Sin and Punisment was probably a Wii VC exclusive for the west and the Shop channel's dead too. Star Successor might still be available tho I don't think Saki's in that one.

Dixie Kong: 38.52%
Bandana Dee: 44.14%
Magolor x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Sin & Punishing Difficulty

Chance: 10%
Definitely a darkhorse. Sin & Punishment is DOA as of now, and while I could see it coming back, it's not in the top 5 Nintendo series with the best shot at a revival. And while Saki has always been popular (as Sakurai himself has constantly admitted), I don't think he's a top dog of demand, unless the Japanese really love him. But he isn't a no-hoper either, I could see him pulling an upset.

Metal Gear RAY

Chance: 5%
Ray's chances aren't looking bright. The moveset potential is there, but I don't know if Nintendo will be looking so deeply into their catalogue for characters. While I maintain that fighters will sell well no matter how obscure they might be, so sales aren't a problem, the fact remains that others just stand out more. And while NOISE is still around and doing stuff, I wouldn't expect anything new from Custom Robo until we get N64 games on NSO.

Want for both: 100%
Sin & Punishment is an amazing game, maybe one of my favorites on the N64, and I love the Custom Robo formula, so I'd be hyped to see either of these characters in Smash.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Dixie Kong prediction: 56.73%
Bandana Dee prediction: 59.03%

 

[amageish]

Double abstains.

Noms: Moogle x5
Predictions: Dixie = 60% / Bandana Dee = 75%.