Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Dukefire]

Most female characters that do join smash is usually thrown with the "Waifu effect" since many people wanted her in or any other excuse. No matter how it is done, there are people not satisfied with every choice

 

[GoodGrief741]

People say Reimu is sexual bait? What, because of Armpits? I have rarelyt seen the casual gamer say Reimu is sexualized at all

If I had to guess, I'd say it's people who consider her loli-bait or something like that.

God I feel dirty even writing this out, the internet is a bad place

 

[amageish]

Please tell me some people didn't say that about Isabelle...

There were a lot of hot takes about Isabelle for the 24 hours after her reveal... I am still incredibly surprised by how much salt she generated...

my dodging the question is code for yes

 

[-crump-]

Shantae

Chance: 25%
I was floating between a 15% and a 40%, believe it or not.

On one hand, Shantae has some good points in her favor. Wayforward isn’t really a “Nindie” per say, but it’s undoubtable they have a good relationship with Nintendo. Being a spirit in the base game proves that at the very least, Sakurai is aware of Shantae, and likely means she placed well enough on the Ballot to get put on the radar. She’s an indie character, but she also has a decently long history and a legacy of five solid games.
Buuuuuut, on the other hand, she’s still a western-owned indie character, and unlike Undertale and Cuphead (which got consolation prizes in the form of Mii Costumes) her series isn’t a massive hit in Japan. I really don’t know if Nintendo would see enough value to pick her over other potential 3rd parties.

Want: 70%
Full disclosure: if we got a playable indie character in Smash, I’d much prefer Shovel Knight. Buuuuut I also happen to like Shantae quite a bit, and I’d love to see how she plays in Smash. She can turn into an elephant, that’s enough for me to support her. More female reps is a plus as well!
______________________________________

Abstaining on Quote, sorry! I think he’s neat but I don’t know enough about the whole situation with Nicalis or the game in general to feel comfortable speculating about his chances.
I will play Cave Story one day, I promise. Maybe.


Noms: Whichever character has the fewest number of votes by the day’s end x5

 

[SharkLord]

I feel like "waifu bait" is just how a lot of people dismiss any female character who they don't want in Smash, honestly. If you don't get why a character is as popular as she is, then just assume it's because the audience wants to sleep with her!

It's annoying; I'd try not to let it get to you...

If "nobody" (read: you) wanted this character, it's just another (X) bad thing. Bandana Dee's just a mook, anyone with a sword is a generic weeb character that's also a Marth clone, any female character is waifubait, etc. This still applies if someone you want checks one of those boxes as well, because remember, the world revolves around you and so you can never be wrong!

 

[3D Dillon]

Shantae

Chance: 25%
I was floating between a 15% and a 40%, believe it or not.

On one hand, Shantae has some good points in her favor. Wayforward isn’t really a “Nindie” per say, but it’s undoubtable they have a good relationship with Nintendo. Being a spirit in the base game proves that at the very least, Sakurai is aware of Shantae, and likely means she placed well enough on the Ballot to get put on the radar. She’s an indie character, but she also has a decently long history and a legacy of five solid games.
Buuuuuut, on the other hand, she’s still a western-owned indie character, and unlike Undertale and Cuphead (which got consolation prizes in the form of Mii Costumes) her series isn’t a massive hit in Japan. I really don’t know if Nintendo would see enough value to pick her over other potential 3rd parties.

Want: 70%
Full disclosure: if we got a playable indie character in Smash, I’d much prefer Shovel Knight. Buuuuut I also happen to like Shantae quite a bit, and I’d love to see how she plays in Smash. She can turn into an elephant, that’s enough for me to support her. More female reps is a plus as well!
______________________________________

Abstaining on Quote, sorry! I think he’s neat but I don’t know enough about the whole situation with Nicalis or the game in general to feel comfortable speculating about his chances.
I will play Cave Story one day, I promise. Maybe.


Noms: Whichever character has the fewest number of votes by the day’s end x5

It's possible that Sakurai/Nintendo, since Cuphead and Undertale were already popular enough, could add Shantae in to bring in more attention. After all, Hero was picked to bring more attention from the west to the Dragon Quest series. Fire Emblem was used in Melee and that spawned western releases of Fire Emblem games, including the recent "Three Houses".

 

[Dukefire]

Remember that Min Min will open Mintendo Noodle House and show her skills somewhere on Monday tomorrow

 

[3D Dillon]

Remember that Min Min will open Mintendo Noodle House and show her skills somewhere on Monday tomorrow

Speaking of which, have you noticed how since Hero, after a fighter is released, there'd be a tournament dedicated to the most recent fighter?

 

[PeridotGX]

Wait, who beat him? Knowing GiIvaSunner's fans, it was probably something god awful.

Can i get some context? It's Siivagunner so i already can guess it's already terrible.

Basically, last year Silvagunner ran a tournament where one character out of 32 would get a whole day of videos themed around them (a sequel to the one two years ago), and Quote was one of the characters. He served as a general rep for "old" indies, like Cave Story and Binding of Issac. He, unfortunately, didn't do that well, as he was up against ZUN round one (ZUN had the entirety of Touhou on his side, so it wasn't really fair) and in Loser's he was up against Papyrus (he didn't get all of Undertale, but what he had was enough). That's not to say he had no good songs, far from it.

As an aside, the winner of the tournament? DJ Professor K from Jet Set Radio. That's why he placed on that one poll.

 

[Glaciacott]

Kind of an interesting day to read on, so I feel like jumping in with my personal take

Before going into the individual characters, some generic stuff I want to address first:
So, my first honest take on all of this is that everyone is very highly estimating the chance of an indie rep. Particularly in an environment where some of the most recognizable indie characters are made mii fighter costumes, assist trophies and spirits.
My second generic take is that people are underestimating the dev/publisher impact. I saw some people mention that Nintendo won't care about interacting with a company despite bad practices because "look at Konami", but I honestly disagree with this. With stuff like Konami and Capcom you're opting for highly recognizable characters that don't carry the weight of their company. People don't look at Simon or Megaman and see a terrible company; they see those characters and think of titans that propelled the game industry forward. Meanwhile, if someone like Yacht Club was suddenly found out to "evil" somehow, I have zero doubt that in the current climate it would mean death for Shovel Knight in most circles.
Honestly, that's kind of unrelated to these two characters, but I did want to touch on it. Moving on though:

Shantae
Chance 2%
I have a hard time imagining Shantae happening, simple as that. On the plus side, Wayforward has been a great ally of Nintendo in the west for a long time and they have a lot of history under their belt, to the point it wouldn't be unrealistic for Nintendo to make a deal with them. But even then, I think the strongest quality to her is the fact that she received attention in the 2015 character poll, and I believe the results of that were already felt: she got a spirit and an icon. At the moment the competition for DLC spots from all angles is too high for her to have a shot.

Want 100%
Despite all of that I would LOVE to see Shantae. I've enjoyed all her games (minus perhaps HGH), and she has the character and potential that would make her a great smash character. More than that, I also want to see Jake Kaufman music in smash as he's one of the western greats that hasn't gotten a nod yet.

Quote
Chance 3%
I've read a lot of what people have to say and I think Quote is just as unlikely. The historical angle is a pretty good one and it's the sort of thing Sakurai would appreciate... if he was aware of it. I also think having a japanese creator helps significantly.... buuuut, unlike Shantae, the world just hasn't been as vocal about Quote. In circles outside of smash speculation, people will know who Shantae is, while Quote not as much.
Nicalis as a company seems to be fairly involved in the industry but I have no familiarity with its connection to Nintendo, since it's not as obvious as Wayforward's, and I also don't know how active Cave Story's creator is. All things considered, I think this would be similar to Terry as a historically sound character that many outside the right circles will still see as a "literally who?" pick. This is not to crap on the character, to be clear, more than anything it's to highlight that there is a weird lack of visibility on this one.

Want 40%
To go into a more personal angle, something that baffles me is that despite people talking about how huge cave story is... I don't understand how I never heard of this game before smash speculation talk years ago. Like, I get not everyone can be aware of every game, but it baffles me that this is such a blind spot for me. And that's where I think Quote's history hurts him relative to characters like Sans: Sans existed in a time of youtube and twitter, while quote's biggest splash happened before that. I don't doubt that what people say it's true, but what I do doubt is that cave story has permeated the gaming zeitgeist half as much as Undertale, or even Shovel Knight. To be fair, I think neither has Shantae, but I guess what I'm getting at is that there should be WAAAAY more knowledge about this character and game and I don't understand why there isn't. Like, where did people hype about cave story before youtube and twitch and twitter? MySpace?
I heard about Shantae's infamy long before pirate's curse and sought the GBC game and was hyped to finally play that when it came out on 3DS. Cave Story I've literally only heard about in the context of indie reps for Smash. I want to care more about this character, based on what people say here, but so far the only thing I'm realizing is that Touhou is the one that deserves the indie crown in Smash. And that Quote could make a great mii gunner.

 

[Paraster]

Quote

• Chance: 35%.
  • I have generally been more optimistic on Quote's chances than others (though I admit this may be me being overly optimistic). If Smash is going to get a character from an indie game, Quote would be a top contender due to Cave Story's significance in the indie scene. The only other "classic indie" that could stand a chance, in my opinion, is Reimu from Touhou (I don't count Shantae among the "classics" category as it wasn't until the 2010s that she actually became an icon). Cave Story also has some decent history with Nintendo--its first paid release was the WiiWare port, and Nintendo systems are the only devices aside from computers that have seen official releases of the game. I also don't think Nicalis's bad behavior would necessarily be a setback (whether it should be or not)--the addition of Castlevania material in Ultimate implies that Sakurai felt representing a certain property outweighed giving further representation to Konami (unless he just didn't care, but the point still stands).
• Want: 95%
  • My signature literally links to a 23-page doc outlining what I think a Quote challenger pack would look like. For a long time, Quote has been my top desire for a Smash fighter, both due to his ability to represent indies, my love of his game, and the moveset potential with his nine distinct weapons. The only reason I don't count him at 100% nowadays is a bit of spite at how awful Nicalis is. (My pipe dream if Quote gets is is that Nicalis takes a backseat and Sakurai mainly works with Pixel for designing him.)

I abstain on Shantae. I have never played any of her games and know little of how they work.

 

[kevinthedot]

So, my first honest take on all of this is that everyone is very highly estimating the chance of an indie rep. Particularly in an environment where some of the most recognizable indie characters are made mii fighter costumes, assist trophies and spirits.

I think some think it's more likely than it should be, but I also wouldn't put it at single digit chances. I think the presence of those indie Mii costumes can be seen both ways. On one hand, Nintendo could be saying that Indies don't deserve a full slot. On the other, it could be seen as them at least acknowledging the Indies as a thing with enough appeal people would pay for it.
As such, I think it's fair to say there's at least a small chance that Nintendo could opt to put a full Indie rep in at some point. They'd likely just look for one that has some really large mass appeal though. Reimu's obvious in that regard due to the sheer scale of Touhou in Japan. Quote I think wouldn't quite hit that and Shantae's good on the western front but kinda meh in the East. She does hit a strong western appeal though in the fact that she's not just a female, but a person of color as well which could put her more in their sight from a corporate optics level. Not sure if they'd have cared about that back when deciding the second pass though since things were pretty different then.
That said, if Nintendo did want an "Indie" rep they could play pretty loose with the definition and go for something like Minecraft with Steve which blows all those other options out of the water if on the table as far as mass appeal goes. That's some darkest future type stuff honestly as I absolutely do not want Steve to get in, but I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to try and play with the definition to cast a net on both sides.

 

[fogbadge]

But why, though? Just because he said something that applies to one pass doesn't necessarily mean it applies to all other passes.

im not entirely sure it fully applied to the first pass

 

[Speed Weed]

Shantae

Chance: abstain

Want: 60%
she'd be neat. never played a shantae game but i know there's a lot of people who would go nuts over her.

Quote

Chance: 30%
if they decide to go for an indie, he is a top candidate. the question is, though, will they go for an indie? that itself i find pretty unlikely, but once again, if they decide to do it, quote's their man. there's also the nicalis mess, but if we counted companies out for having done a ****ty thing, at least the konami characters would go. stuff like the source gaming poll shows he might have a silent fanbase rooting for him, so maybe that helps him too.

Want: 90%
i've never played cave story, but he has a really neat design and it'd be cool to see more gunners in smash

 

[osby]

It's possible that Sakurai/Nintendo, since Cuphead and Undertale were already popular enough, could add Shantae in to bring in more attention. After all, Hero was picked to bring more attention from the west to the Dragon Quest series.

Citation needed.

Fire Emblem was used in Melee and that spawned western releases of Fire Emblem games, including the recent "Three Houses".

But Fire Emblem wasn't added to bring more attention to the series in the west. Roy and Marth weren't even supposed to be in the international versions of Melee initially.

 

[Deleted member]

I just checked, and it was aganist ZUN and Papyrus, so aganist Touhou and UT music. For the context, it's the king for another day tournament, where fans vote for which music rip they prefer.

Papyrus did not have Undertale as a source, the only songs he got from the game were songs related to himself (e.g. Bonetrousle).

 

[Troykv]

So in the end Undertale was inspired by Earthbound, SMT, Touhou and also Cave Story? Interesting

 

[Lyncario]

So in the end Undertale was inspired by Earthbound, SMT, Touhou and also Cave Story? Interesting

Super Paper Mario may also have been an inspiration, more for the characters side of things.

 

[Ridrool64]

If I use the quote gag too many times it won't be funny.

Chance (Quote): 20%. I see him as the fourth pick for an Indie newcomer, behind Shantae, Frisk and Reimu (ascending order, if we get AT's then Shovel Knight goes between Reimu and Frisk). But I would say he is the most comfortable of the four due to his position. He's got relative icon power for an indie, that is being one of the faces (or the first things you think of when you think of indie games: if not him, his game). He's still in the public consciousness through relevance and some fan demand, so things will probably go smoothly. That being said, one of Nicalis's bigger faults is the tendency to go ghost, and combined with being a western company and there's a high chance that they could flub or skip out on important meetings, which would result in the character falling through.

But his chance is really super low because Quote is almost tailor-made for a Gunner costume, and unfortunately for him and his fans, that's what I see in his future.

Want (Quote): 35%. I do not personally like his game, and therefore I personally do not like the idea of him getting into Smash. That being said, Quote's basically earned it so I can't say too much bad about him. I want Crash so I've surrendered the right to use Nicalis against Quote (well I could be a hypocrite... but...). I don't think indies compete with one another so I won't hold Frisk against him either.

DDR rep

Chance (Shantae): 30%. With her third biggest barrier broken, Shantae is somebody who I think is back in contention. That being said, she's a sleeper pick in my eyes, not a major one. That's because I said third biggest rather than her single biggest barrier (there's somebody else who I think was just a Spirit promotion away from actually being a talking point). Her actual two biggest problems are Mii Costume death syndrome like all indies (she could be any of the three and it'd make some sense), and what I think might be the smaller one but still notable is that Nintendo history as a whole pretty much died with Joker, which is one of her biggest "reasons" for inclusion. She's relevant and fan-demanded, so that's a start, but I still see her as behind Frisk and Reimu mostly because they don't rely on something that's not a factor. Nintendo history has never gotten a third party character in, so why would it now?

Want (Shantae): 40%. I gotta say, I did try out Risky's Revenge on the DSi, but Shantae doesn't seem like my type of game (I liked it more than Cave Story, though). And I kinda find Shantae a bit underwhelming for an indie character. But the people want what the people want... so I can't be too mad.

Red x 5. Saki and Ray have their issues but I have nothing to say about them so I won't predict their scores.

 

[Shinuto]

If I use the quote gag too many times it won't be funny.



Chance (Shantae): 30%. With her third biggest barrier broken, Shantae is somebody who I think is back in contention. That being said, she's a sleeper pick in my eyes, not a major one. That's because I said third biggest rather than her single biggest barrier (there's somebody else who I think was just a Spirit promotion away from actually being a talking point). Her actual two biggest problems are Mii Costume death syndrome like all indies (she could be any of the three and it'd make some sense), and what I think might be the smaller one but still notable is that Nintendo history as a whole pretty much died with Joker, which is one of her biggest "reasons" for inclusion. She's relevant and fan-demanded, so that's a start, but I still see her as behind Frisk and Reimu mostly because they don't rely on something that's not a factor. Nintendo history has never gotten a third party character in, so why would it now?

Want (Shantae): 40%. I gotta say, I did try out Risky's Revenge on the DSi, but Shantae doesn't seem like my type of game (I liked it more than Cave Story, though). And I kinda find Shantae a bit underwhelming for an indie character. But the people want what the people want... so I can't be too mad.

Red x 5. Saki and Ray have their issues but I have nothing to say about them so I won't predict their scores.

Joker could be due to ATLUS'S connection to Nintendo. that would make Shantae more likely as WF has a great history with Nintendo

And how can you POSSIBLY say nintendo history has never gotten a third party in when basically every single 3rd party has SOME connection to Nintendo and we don't know at all the full extent of why a character was chosen? Thats a big assumption you're making for seemingly no reason other than your own beliefs.

Snake: We know Kojima begged Sakurai, Konami has also done a ton of work with Nintendo in the past

Sonic: Do I need to say it?

Pacman: Namco helped make the damn game ontop of other stuff in the past.

Megaman: Capcom is a huge supporter of Nintendo and Megaman has a rich history with Nintendo

Banjo Kazooie: should be obvious.

Bayonetta: was literally saved by Nintendo

Simon and Richter, Konami plus Castlevania having deep roots in Nintendo

Cloud: Final Fantasy having its roots in Nintendo

Joker: Atlus has big connection to Nintendo

Terry: same as Joker

what you said before ignores ALL of this.

 

[Drason]

Let's see, the big hitters of the Indie scene.
Quote
Chance:15%
His game has been relatively popular as far as Indie games go. He has multiple re-releases on Nintendo consoles. However, he only has one game that was released multiple times meaning that he really doesn't have that much series power. I can mostly see him getting a Mii Costume.
Want: 10%
Never that big of a fan of Cave Story. I only played like the first half before I got distracted by other releases at time, notably Xenoverse 2, so I don't know much about him. However, with the range of weapons you get in the first half of the game I would love to see how his moveset would play out. It would be nice to have another long ranged fighter in the game.
Shantae
Chance: 30%
I can see her a lot more considering both her history and popularity. She has a range of attack variations to pull from even though the vast majority of what I consider to be feasible are in her first 2 games. However, she also doesn't really have that much financial success and Nintendo could look at that and try to disuade her inclusion.
Want:50%
I want to see all the crazy things that she could pull off with her moveset. The bellydance technique could work like Kirby's ability or be a Metronome like attack and I would love to see how that could change the game. I also played some of her games and I think she's a really entertaining character.

Drason Nightmare is already on the schedule, so you're gonna have to nominate someone else.

Alright than can I nominate Yoshimitsu(Soulcalibur/Tekken)?

 

[warpenguin55]

Is this site acting up for anyone else? It's moving really slow for me and gives gateway errors

 

[SharkLord]

Is this site acting up for anyone else? It's moving really slow for me and give gateway errors

You're not the only one. I can see where the Crashboards jab comes from. Is it really that hard just to make less fragile servers?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Alright than can I nominate Yoshimitsu(Soulcalibur/Tekken)?

Sure, editing those in now.

Is this site acting up for anyone else? It's moving really slow for me and give gateway errors

Same for me, been like this for a couple of days.

 

[Kotor]

Shantae

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Ah, Shantae. A character who often has the words "history with Nintendo" thrown around a lot. What history? That she's old? For a franchise that's been around for 18 years, Shantae's only really been active for 10. Wayforward's relationship with Nintendo feels more like a "Wayforward puts Shantae games on Nintendo consoles and Nintendo approves them." It doesn't scream to me the two are buddy buddy.

I have my issues with Wayforward wanting Shantae in Smash. It's one thing for a bunch of fans to rally around Shantae, but Wayforward doing it themselves, especially using their own kickstarter for Half-Genie Hero to get Shantae in Smash during the Fighter Ballot rubbed me the wrong way. I always saw them as a kid yelling "PICK ME PICK ME PICK ME" trying to be noticed by the team captains as they pick everyone else. And people taking Wayforward's silence as being "she's in!" during the prerelease period was just obnoxious.

In terms of characters I want that are considered indie, Shantae's obviously no where near that list. I tried Half Genie Hero, I played for like a hour or 2 before dropping it. She has a devoted fanbase, and some of the games are fun according to them, but from an outsider perspective, the games don't come off as impactful compared to the likes of Undertale, Touhou, Cave Story, and Shovel Knight. They're just there.


Abstaining on Quote

 

[warpenguin55]

Wayforward's relationship with Nintendo feels more like a "Wayforward puts Shantae games on Nintendo consoles and Nintendo approves them." It doesn't scream to me the two are buddy buddy

True. Nintendo doesn't really promote her (or at least I don't remember a time when they did).

 

[Glaciacott]

That quote ages poorly when you realize how many games wayforward has published/developed on Nintendo consoles. Mighty Switch Force, River City Girls... all things considered relatively small games, but if you think wayforward is just Shantae you’re highly underestimating the company.

 

[Perkilator]

That quote ages poorly when you realize how many games wayforward has published/developed on Nintendo consoles. Mighty Switch Force, River City Girls... all things considered relatively small games, but if you think wayforward is just Shantae you’re highly underestimating the company.

They even did a remake of the DuckTales NES game.

 

[Shinuto]

Shantae

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Ah, Shantae. A character who often has the words "history with Nintendo" thrown around a lot. What history? That she's old? For a franchise that's been around for 18 years, Shantae's only really been active for 10. Wayforward's relationship with Nintendo feels more like a "Wayforward puts Shantae games on Nintendo consoles and Nintendo approves them." It doesn't scream to me the two are buddy buddy.

I have my issues with Wayforward wanting Shantae in Smash. It's one thing for a bunch of fans to rally around Shantae, but Wayforward doing it themselves, especially using their own kickstarter for Half-Genie Hero to get Shantae in Smash during the Fighter Ballot rubbed me the wrong way. I always saw them as a kid yelling "PICK ME PICK ME PICK ME" trying to be noticed by the team captains as they pick everyone else. And people taking Wayforward's silence as being "she's in!" during the prerelease period was just obnoxious.

In terms of characters I want that are considered indie, Shantae's obviously no where near that list. I tried Half Genie Hero, I played for like a hour or 2 before dropping it. She has a devoted fanbase, and some of the games are fun according to them, but from an outsider perspective, the games don't come off as impactful compared to the likes of Undertale, Touhou, Cave Story, and Shovel Knight. They're just there.


Abstaining on Quote

What is with you people being like "Ugh how dare a company be passionate about getting their mascot in THE BIGGEST CROSSOVER SERIES IN GAMING, its not like Wayforward isnt full of diehard Nintendo fans or something. Jesus Christ get over it, you're making a mountain out of anthill.

And of course theyre going to be silent, either they're under NDA, or they just dont feel like talking about if its not related to anything involving them. A ton of other companies are being silent too in regards to fans asking them about Smash and guess what, every ******* fan thinks that means their favorite could be in too, so stop treating WayForward as they're an anomaly here.

 

[fogbadge]

you're making a mountain out of anthill.

says the user whos reacted to every negative comment about shantae

 

[Shinuto]

says the user whos reacted to every negative comment about shantae

I react when people use faulty arguments based on bias, misinformation, and double standards.

You'd get heated too abit if you came across this crap so frequently. Not just here but ALL over the internet.

 

[fogbadge]

I react when people use faulty arguments based on bias, misinformation, and double standards.

they do that all the time here, you dont need to get so worked up

 

[Shinuto]

they do that all the time here, you dont need to get so worked up

If your argue against a character you need to have your argument be solid or you lose a face as a debater/poster.

 

[fogbadge]

If your argue against a character you need to have your argument be solid or you lose a face as a debater/poster.

theyve been getting away with it for 470 days now

 

[Lyncario]

If your argue against a character you need to have your argument be solid or you lose a face as a debater/poster.

Remember when you said that Quote had no legacy for no reason while saying that Shantae survived the abyssmal sales of her first game, execpt she didn't and what she had was a revival?

 

[Sid-cada]

Quote

Chance - 2.5% - Basically the grand-daddy of indies, he was their Shovel Knight before Shovel Knight existed. Thing is, though, Quote never quite broke into the mainstream, and is basically only an indie-scene character. Quote has been ported to numerous systems, keeping him somewhat in consciousness, but a new game never really game him a big vigor boost. He's probably the one they would go for if specifically gunning for the indie crowed, but I think there are other characters they would prioritize like Travis.

Want - 50% - I've only had hearsay about it. While the appeal is there, he hews a bit close to Mega Man to my liking. While I'm sure he could be interesting if given a full moveset, I'm more interested in other properties.


Shantae

Chance - 5% - If there is one thing Shantae has over most other indies, she has a spirit in-game, without much else. This means that she already has a foot in the door without having something cripling like Shovel Knight's Assist Trophy. WayForward has some clout, with some developers specifically going to them for outsourcing and licencing projects like River City Girls, Contra 4, the A Boy and His Blob remake, and the Ducktales remake, and their flagship title remains the Shantae series. However, Shantae is probably their only really noteworthy homegrown series, and even that hasn't quite gained the notoriety of other Indies with more representation, like the aforementioned Shovel Knight and Sans. If there was a western indie character I would expect her, but indies by their very nature are typically unlikely due to having inherently smaller fan bases. If there was a western indie character I expect her to be a front runner for a western indie at the moment if Assist Trophies really do deconfirm Shovel Knight, but I would not surprise me at all if she didn't make it.

Want - 75% - I have an unplayed Shanate game lying around somewhere. I would like to get around to playing it, but I have been busy with other things. As of right now, though, I do appreciate her, and is my choice for an indie character.


Nominatitons

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Shinuto]

Remember when you said that Quote had no legacy for no reason while saying that Shantae survived the abyssmal sales of her first game, execpt she didn't and what she had was a revival?

Fair pont, i meant by that he doesnt really have a series.

 

[YoshiandToad]

If your argue against a character you need to have your argument be solid or you lose a face as a debater/poster.

Regarding want scores, it's a subjective thing, so people can use whatever they want to state they wouldn't be interested in them.

Only chance is slightly objective and judging by how often high want scores coincidentally normally end up with high chance scores I'd say even most the time that's not properly objective.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Quote:

Chance: 20%
Want: Abstain

If there's an indie rep, I can only see it going to one of these characters: Quote, Reimu, Baldi and Freddy. Quote and Reimu have seniority and are actually well-known, while maintaining sizable fanbases who want them in. Baldi and Freddy are there because I'm hugely against them and a huge pessimist, but that's a topic for another day. However, it's vastly more likely for a character to not make it in than to make it in, so as a result, I'll be giving him my default 20%. Don't know much about Quote, so I will be abstaining on the want.

Shantae:

Chance: 0.05%
Want: 100%

Min Min definitely helped Shantae's chances, but I still consider her deconfirmed. Here's why. Essentially, Shantae's creator and copyright holder talks about how they would still love to see Shantae in Smash (big red flag for NDA reasons) and more importantly, talks about how they didn't even know about Shantae's spirit appearance. After we learned of the intense communicational processes behind DLC characters like with Banjo and Min Min, that's a pretty dead giveaway that Shantae is only going to stay a spirit. And also, Shantae still has a huge amount of indie competition, each with more than her, and since I'm of the firm beleif that there can only be one indie rep per game (or base game/dlc), Shantae's gonna be in the waiting room a while. A long while. Said competition includes Quote, who's an indie icon, Reimu, who's a Japanese icon that beat her out in Source Gaming's recent poll, Freddy, who's become a gaming icon overnight, Baldi, who's followed suit, Steve, who's from the best-selling game of all time, Travis, who's creator is personal friends with Sakurai, Cuphead, who got a Mii Outfit and ported song and is more popular, UNDERTALE/DELTARUNE reps, who holds Freddy's Iconicness (maybe even moreso than Freddy) combined with Travis' creator friendship and Cuphead's Mii Outfit but with a remix instead of a ported song, Madeline who was a GOTY nominee, and last but not least, Shovel Knight who was able to get an Assist Trophy in-game while Shantae only got a PNG, only to name a few? So yeah Shantae's odds don't look good for her now or in the future. Shantae's just way too obscure, especially for a western company, to be able to be called more likely than any of these characters, let alone every one of these characters. Shantae's obscurity is really what does her in, because even without her indie competition, I don't think Sakurai/Nintendo would look at Shantae and say "Her." when there could be more money made of a promotional 1st party or a popular AAA 3rd party. For these reasons, as controversial as it is to say for me, I think she's less likely than Goku, and having me call them that is an "accolade" that very few unfortunate characters can get.

And I hate it. Shantae's a fun character with a fun personality, something that Smash severely lacks (I mean we just got Byleth and Min Min for crying out loud) and amazing moveset potential. Also, her getting in would just be an amazing underdog story about a character going from nothing to greatness.

Noms:
FP2 is 3 First Parties and 3 Third Parties x5

 

[Shinuto]

theyve been getting away with it for 470 days now

That doesnt change anything, I dont like people using bad arguments, I do it myself but O try not too